Another team's prospects thread

[Yankees1962]

He's not a prospect any longer, but Rick Porcello was sent down to Toledo today. He's struggled for most of this season. Just another example of why you need to be patient with young pitchers as they have peaks and valleys early in their careers.

On another note, sometimes, I wonder if Yankee fans as a whole have enough patience to develop home grown talent before becoming disenchanted with them? I don't think so due to high expectations of needing to contend for a WS title every year.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/Hea...=MLB&hl=294184

[bmxstreetrider86]

Of course DeLeon is a 1 mil dollar afterthought to most people here and Sano the lovechild of ghandi and Jesus sent to save our fanchise.


We have seen how well striking out the much in the dsl has done for kdl, which is why people are being pessimistic

[DRobertsonNYY]

you will never see anybody say they were wrong about international signings in here

[JavyVazquezIsSick]

Right. He's hitting .341/.444/.636/1.081 as a 17 year-old. That's a weak reaction and it's as if he was hitting .250/.275/.350 or something. One, it's a small sample of his first 44 AB's of professional competition, two, he's walking, and three, it's not like he can't develop plate discipline after age 17. De Leon fans would have to agree with that unless they're complete hypocrites.

Yup...

[Donnybaseball72]

you will never see anybody say they were wrong about international signings in here

Because a group of internet scouts can properly evaluate the prospects of 16 year old ball players better than real scouts.

[Melan-cynic]

Because a group of internet scouts can properly evaluate the prospects of 16 year old ball players better than real scouts.

I guess there's a point here... Sorry for posting opinions about IFA's in the IFA thread on a message board. If Sano is a complete bust I'll be the first one to say I was wrong. Ain't happening yet tho.

Of course DeLeon is a 1 mil dollar afterthought to most people here and Sano the lovechild of ghandi and Jesus sent to save our fanchise.

Right, that isn't putting words in peoples' mouths or greatly exaggerating the situation. Because I wanted to sign Sano, and his stats currently support that, somehow means I look at him as a messiah figure? Sure, why not.

We have seen how well striking out the much in the dsl has done for kdl, which is why people are being pessimistic

Go ahead and be pessimistic. But if he continues to rake, walk and slug I would be optimistic the strikeouts will come down as well.

[bmxstreetrider86]

[QUOTE=Melan-cynic

Go ahead and be pessimistic. But if he continues to rake, walk and slug I would be optimistic the strikeouts will come down as well.[/QUOTE]


yea, im sure the .450 BABIP will continue as well. this is like austin jackson redux except now everyone is up in arms cause sano has a pretty triple slash line

[Melan-cynic]

yea, im sure the .450 BABIP will continue as well. this is like austin jackson redux except now everyone is up in arms cause sano has a pretty triple slash line

Yeah, because Austin Jackson is a 17 year-old IFA signee with 50 at bats to go on in the DSL........Give me a break. If we swapped Sano's name with Gary Sanchez I guarantee you'd be singing a different tune.

[bmxstreetrider86]

Yeah, because Austin Jackson is a 17 year-old IFA signee with 50 at bats to go on in the DSL........Give me a break. If we swapped Sano's name with Gary Sanchez I guarantee you'd be singing a different tune.

high strikeouts and a super high BABIP should be a concern no matter who the player is, could be sanchez or sano or bryce harper or, most recently and famously, austin jackson.


what level its occurring at and who its happening to has no impact on the situation

[awy]

the babip could just be that he's hitting the ball really fking hard.

[bmxstreetrider86]

the babip could just be that he's hitting the ball really fking hard.

even if we accept that premise, .450 is obscene. and while minor league BIP data is unreliable, he is hitting infield fly's on nearly a quarter of his BIP, that certainly doesnt scream "i should have a high BABIP"

[awy]

well ok, but at least he's showing some talent there, very valuable talent at his age.

[bmxstreetrider86]

well ok, but at least he's showing some talent there, very valuable talent at his age.

im not saying he isnt a prospect or anything, simply think his pretty triple slash line is masking some warts so far, thats all

[Melan-cynic]

im not saying he isnt a prospect or anything, simply think his pretty triple slash line is masking some warts so far, thats all

"Warts" you can't possibly interpret or pretend to know without seeing them in person. Relying on BIP data for the DSL is absurd and a weak crutch to stand on in this argument.

[bmxstreetrider86]

Warts you can't possibly interpret without seeing in person. Relying on BIP data for the DSL is absurd and a weak crutch to stand on in this argument.

pretty tough to misclassify infield fly data, so not really a weak crutch at all. delving into LD% data and whatnot is the murky part.



i dont need to see him in person to tell you striking out nearly 30% of the time and hitting infield pop-ups 23% of BIP is a wart, but if you want to play that game go ahead for it.

[Melan-cynic]

pretty tough to misclassify infield fly data, so not really a weak crutch at all. delving into LD% data and whatnot is the murky part

Really? I'd trust BIP data from the DSL like a hole in the head.

You're trying to disprove his triple slash line. You can sarcastically call it "pretty" but that's what it is: pretty. Until I hear reports of him having a lucky 1.081 OPS, I'll tend to take the logical route here instead of the one so obviously motivated by sour grapes.

i dont need to see him in person to tell you striking out nearly 30% of the time and hitting infield pop-ups 23% of BIP is a wart, but if you want to play that game go ahead for it.

And if you want to play the game where you ignore BA, OBP, SLG, OPS in evaluating a 17-year-old hitting prospect, have fun.

[flymick24]

Right. He's hitting .341/.444/.636/1.081 as a 17 year-old. That's a weak reaction and it's as if he was hitting .250/.275/.350 or something. One, it's a small sample of his first 44 AB's of professional competition, two, he's walking, and three, it's not like he can't develop plate discipline after age 17. De Leon fans would have to agree with that unless they're complete hypocrites.

i'm defending sano

[bmxstreetrider86]

Really? I'd trust BIP data from the DSL like a hole in the head.

i imagine its pretty tough for anyone to not be able to accurately define an infield flyball

You're trying to disprove his triple slash line. You can sarcastically call it "pretty" but that's what it is: pretty. Until I hear reports of him having a lucky 1.081 OPS, I'll tend to take the logical route here instead of the one so obviously motivated by sour grapes.

im sorry you cant possibly accept the premise than sano's triple slash line is inflated by a .450 BABIP, but whatever i dont need to argue with you about that.


no sour grapes, the Yankees got the prospect they wanted and i trust thier judgment over everyone else when it come to IFA. so far sanchez is the one playing a premium position and playing the US as a 17 year old. we will see how it plays out but if everything remains the same sanchez will be the better prospect come the end of the year and there will be nothing to be sour about.

[bmxstreetrider86]

Really?

And if you want to play the game where you ignore BA, OBP, SLG, OPS in evaluating a 17-year-old hitting prospect, have fun.

remind me which one of those numbers is unaffected by BABIP. unless you think the .450 isnt a fluke which id love to hear

[Melan-cynic]

remind me which one of those numbers is unaffected by BABIP. unless you think the .450 isnt a fluke which id love to hear

You're purposely missing the point here. Obviously a .450 BABIP is unsustainable, particularly in the majors in the higher levels of MiLB. But no, killing the ball in the Dominican is also not a "fluke."

You and your compadre downplayed his numbers and cited strikeouts and a lack of plate discipline. That's what I had a gripe with because it's weak, it's based on a major SSS of a 17-year-old's first year in pro ball and he has a k/bb rate of 8:14. You are talking as if he's struck out 50x and walked twice.

It's just not accurate, it's sour grapes and relying on DSL bip data is not helping. On the other hand, if he wasn't tearing the cover off the ball I bet the ranch you wouldn't be citing a low BABIP.

[bmxstreetrider86]

You're purposely missing the point here. Obviously a .450 BABIP is unsustainable, particularly in the majors in the higher levels of MiLB.

You and your compadre downplayed his numbers and cited strikeouts and a lack of plate discipline. That's what I had a gripe with because it's weak, it's based on a major SSS of a 17-year-old's first year in pro ball and he has a k/bb rate of 8:14. You are talking as if he's struck out 50x and walked twice.

It's just not accurate and relying on DSL bip data is not helping.

i didnt say he lacked discipline, i said he shouldnt be swinging and missing so much.


its not like the DSL BIP data im referring to is up for question. "Sano pops out to 1B" is pretty self explanatory. we arent projecting what he should be hitting based on LD% or anything (which i think is pretty useless for the minors) its simply taking a result just like a hit, a BB, or a K. there is really no room for interpretation with infield fly data. and im not even saying he sucks because he was popping out, its simply a reason why "he is hitting the crap outa the ball" was a valid reason for a .450 BABIP in his circumstance

[Melan-cynic]

i didnt say he lacked discipline, i said he shouldnt be swinging and missing so much.

Kind of a major factor of plate discipline. Unless you're suggesting his triple slash line and ability to hit for average and power (consistent hard contact) is a complete fluke based on BIP data from the DSL. If so, good luck homey.

Still wreaks of sour grapes because you can't be this obtuse in assuming a 17 y/o striking out at a high rate over 50 at bats is somehow concrete enough a harbinger to discount the numbers he's put up. And contending this AJax Part Deux isn't helping.

[bmxstreetrider86]

Kind of a major factor of plate discipline. Unless you're suggesting his triple slash line and ability to hit for average and power (consistent hard contact) is a complete fluke based on BIP data from the DSL. If so, good luck homey.

not really, adam dunn has excellent plate discipline but swings and misses too much. much of the same could be said for nick swisher

this consistent hard contact of his is simply a fallacy on your part. he isnt making consistent contact, and when he does his hits are falling in for hits at an unsustainable rate. this is undeniable. add into this his high IFF rate makes it even more likely for a BABIP related crash

Still wreaks of sour grapes because you can't be this obtuse in assuming a 17 y/o striking out at a high rate over 50 at bats is somehow concrete enough a harbinger to discount the numbers he's put up. And contending this AJax Part Deux isn't helping.

i never said it wasnt a SSS but those things go both ways. you cant dismiss numbers i use for SSS and then use the same SSS triple slash numbers. i simply saw his numbers, noticed a lot of strikeouts, checked his BABIP and saw a reason for concern. if he improves great, but if not he is in trouble.


and i dont see how to misconstrue my ajax comparison. they both have unsustainable BABIP and high K'rates, and we have seen ajax numbers decline with more and more PA's, and unless something with sano changes his will to

[Melan-cynic]

this consistent hard contact of his is simply a fallacy on your part. he isnt making consistent contact, and when he does his hits are falling in for hits at an unsustainable rate. this is undeniable.

Unless you've been watching him in person it's extremely deniable. I'm going to assume he isn't blooping 3HR and 6 xbh in his 50 atbats. Again, you seem to ignore that I don't find the BIP data from the DSL to be reliable. Take that for what it is, but ignoring it is counterproductive.

and i dont see how to misconstrue my ajax comparison. they both have unsustainable BABIP and high K'rates, and we have seen ajax numbers decline with more and more PA's, and unless something with sano changes his will to

I don't see how you continue to miss the boat on how ridiculous the Ajax comp is. In general sure, high BABIP and high strikeout rates are bad, bad, bad. However, the manner in which you brought up Ajax implies you believe Sano's 50 at bats can be gauged in the same way as Austin's five year minor league career trend.

"Unless something changes" for a 17 year-old after his first 50 pro at bats? Nah, I think he is a finished product. Obviously the Twins want him to cut down on K's, but there's no way they're discounting his first month the way you're determined to.

[bmxstreetrider86]

Unless you've been watching him in person it's extremely deniable. I'm going to assume he isn't blooping 3HR and 6 xbh in his 50 atbats. Again, you seem to ignore that I don't find the BIP data from the DSL to be reliable. Take that for what it is, but ignoring it is counterproductive.

you are ignoring pertinent data because it suits you. come up with a good reason not to trust the official scoring of an INFIELD FLY BALL. there is no judgment or interpretation there, sorry

I don't see how you continue to miss the boat on how ridiculous the Ajax comp is. In general sure, high BABIP and high strikeout rates are bad, bad, bad. However, the manner in which you brought up Ajax implies you believe Sano's 50 at bats can be gauged in the same way as Austin's five year minor league career trend.

im not missing any boat. you simply refuse to budge from your poor interpretation. im sorry you arent grasping the concept

"Unless something changes" for a 17 year-old after his first 50 pro at bats? Nah, I think he is a finished product. Obviously the Twins want him to cut down on K's, but there's no way they're discounting his first month the way you're determined to.

terrible attempts at sarcasm aside you do realize that some people dont get better and you are making a huge assumption that he will? im not even saying he wont or cant, im saying if it stays the same his numbers wont be as good. stop trying to make an argument out of something so simple

[Melan-cynic]

im not missing any boat. you simply refuse to budge from your poor interpretation. im sorry you arent grasping the concept

Right, I can't grasp the concept that you have an inane bias which made you look solely at the negative and refuse to admit an impressive start to a prospect's pro career. It's really that simple. BABIP all you want. It's an overreaction. But what should I expect from the guy whose previously ran head first into contradicting evidence and then pretended it never happened. That was fun.

terrible attempts at sarcasm aside you do realize that some people dont get better and you are making a huge assumption that he will? im not even saying he wont or cant, im saying if it stays the same his numbers wont be as good.

I didn't make "a huge assumption" about anything and simply said he's had an impressive start in the DSL, nothing more. You can try and put words in my mouth but I'm not the one looking to discount a prospect because of an ulterior motive. But hey, if you want to cling to 14 strikeouts, be my guest. It's an overreaction to a SSS much more than me offering a basic and undeniable contention: .341/.444/.636 is good.

[JavyVazquezIsSick]

Right, I can't grasp the concept that you have an inane bias which made you look solely at the negative and refuse to admit an impressive start to a prospect's pro career. It's really that simple..

This is really it right here. I can find like 5-10 different posts from BMX claimoring about all the positive KDL did in the DSL, while never mentioning anything negative about him at the time.

This isn't complicated stuff here. If you can't see your own bias sometimes, God bless you.

[JavyVazquezIsSick]

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=572283

Nice start for the hardthrowing prospect who isn't a starting pitcher.

[awy]

stats for the dsl is pretty useless at that level. it's just a shorthanded scouting report. 3-4 might mean different things depending on how the player actually hit the ball.

fluke or not, using babip to discount performance there is equally silly as holding up dsl short sample stats as the holy word

[Melan-cynic]

stats for the dsl is pretty useless at that level. it's just a shorthanded scouting report. 3-4 might mean different things depending on how the player actually hit the ball.

fluke or not, using babip to discount performance there is equally silly as holding up dsl short sample stats as the holy word

This. The same point I tried to get across several times. Oh well, I'm done hijacking this thread.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=572283

Nice start for the hardthrowing prospect who isn't a starting pitcher.

There's no excuse for not drafting guys like him and we'll have the same nauseating feeling after Workman and Ranaudo sign and start pitching.

[bmxstreetrider86]

This is really it right here. I can find like 5-10 different posts from BMX claimoring about all the positive KDL did in the DSL, while never mentioning anything negative about him at the time.

This isn't complicated stuff here. If you can't see your own bias sometimes, God bless you.

find me one post where i defended his strikeout rate or said it was a positive in any way. not to mention KDL wasnt a 5 star prospect when he signed for some people and he certainly didnt excite anyone the way Sano did for some of you.


and maybe before clamoring about biases you should look in the mirror because saying someone that someone is striking out too much when they are striking out to much isnt biased.

[bmxstreetrider86]

stats for the dsl is pretty useless at that level. it's just a shorthanded scouting report. 3-4 might mean different things depending on how the player actually hit the ball.

fluke or not, using babip to discount performance there is equally silly as holding up dsl short sample stats as the holy word

for gods sake i havent discounted his performance, i said unless he improves his numbers will get worse because no one can sustain a .450 BABIP. this isnt a debate its a fact.


here is my original post:

triple slash looks nice, 27% k rate in DSL not so much.

seriously, someone tell me how im discounting him by calling a high k rate a high k rate.

[kongull]

I'm not going to say definitively one way or another, but from where i am standing it does sound like bitterness BMX. You would know best tho.

[bmxstreetrider86]

I'm not going to say definitively one way or another, but from where i am standing it does sound like bitterness BMX. You would know best tho.

i fail to see how there is any bitterness in saying a 27% strikeout rate is high and .450 BABIP unsustainable. those look like factually correct statements to me


but if you would like to refute those conclusions with factual evidence that makes my statements incorrect ill gladly retract my statements

[Melan-cynic]

i fail to see how there is any bitterness in saying a 27% strikeout rate is high and .450 BABIP unsustainable. those look like factually correct statements to me


but if you would like to refute those conclusions with factual evidence that makes my statements incorrect ill gladly retract my statements

Dios mio you are good at missing the point.

Someone posts that Player A is hitting .350/.450/.650 as a 17-year-old over his first month in pro ball. Your first reaction was to spew out BABIP and his k% data. One would assume you might, just might, have an ulterior motive and a reason to try and focus on the negative. Any person with a whiff of common sense would come away with that fact.

If you had maybe posted even an iota of recognition regarding his offensive stats it'd be taken seriously, but it's too glaring to ignore. The fact that you can't own up to that only makes it shine brighter.

[Jax Teller]

The loser of this argument will face flymick 1 on 1 in a Rubber Glove Death Fisting Match. JVIS will officiate.

[bmxstreetrider86]

Dios mio you are good at missing the point.

Someone posts that Player A is hitting .350/.450/.650 as a 17-year-old over his first month in pro ball. Your first reaction was to spew out BABIP and his k% data. One would assume you might, just might, have an ulterior motive and a reason to try and focus on the negative. Any person with a whiff of common sense would come away with that fact.

If you had maybe posted even an iota of recognition regarding his offensive stats it'd be taken seriously, but it's too glaring to ignore. The fact that you can't own up to that only makes it shine brighter.

yes or no:

27% k rate is high
.450 BABIP is unsustainable


this is my post BTW

triple slash looks nice, 27% k rate in DSL not so much.

so really, no iota of recognition huh? im not the one shining

[Melan-cynic]

yes or no:

27% k rate is high
.450 BABIP is unsustainable


this is my post BTW


so really, no iota of recognition huh? im not the one shining

Yeah that wasn't sarcastic/backhanded..

[bmxstreetrider86]

Yeah that wasn't sarcastic/backhanded..

way to ignore the questions.

[Melan-cynic]

way to ignore the questions.

Yeah, I ignored that by responding to it 10 times already.

[Melan-cynic]

Bring on Flymick.

[bmxstreetrider86]

Yeah, I ignored that by responding to it 10 times already.

yes or no answers only please

[awy]

for gods sake i havent discounted his performance, i said unless he improves his numbers will get worse because no one can sustain a .450 BABIP. this isnt a debate its a fact.


here is my original post:




seriously, someone tell me how im discounting him by calling a high k rate a high k rate.

yea, his dsl stats will get worse. in other news, dsl stats are important.

[jeter62375]

Law was asked if he's worried about the poor play from Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo ...

"Not really concerned about Anderson or Rizzo, no. I just don't react much to short down periods from prospects I like. It's < 50 games in each case."

Rizzo hitting .242 between A+ and AA in 260 ab.
Anderson hitting .207 at AAA in 164 ab.

[mentalgidget]

Law was asked if he's worried about the poor play from Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo ...

"Not really concerned about Anderson or Rizzo, no. I just don't react much to short down periods from prospects I like. It's < 50 games in each case."

Rizzo hitting .242 between A+ and AA in 260 ab.
Anderson hitting .207 at AAA in 164 ab.

I spent some time "defending" Anderson a few weeks ago but I can now say that I am at least moderately concerned about him. One of my previous points was that he hadn't gone into a prolonged slump. Well, he recently went through an 0-29 slump (i was at 2 of the games). That worries me because of his tendency to overthink things. I feel like a player with that characteristic will take longer to rebound than other players.

Of coruse, he did go 3-4 with a 2b and hr last night

And I'm not too concerned about Rizzo. I think he was promoted to AA too soon.

[bmxstreetrider86]

Law was asked if he's worried about the poor play from Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo ...

"Not really concerned about Anderson or Rizzo, no. I just don't react much to short down periods from prospects I like. It's < 50 games in each case."

Rizzo hitting .242 between A+ and AA in 260 ab.
Anderson hitting .207 at AAA in 164 ab.

you think he was gonna come out and say something else about anderson? he ranked him as the #7 prospect in baseball at one point.


rizzo is another matter

[Melan-cynic]

Yeah, I, unlike Law, will own up I was wrong about Anderson being an elite prospect. He's still young enough to have things click but for him to say he's not concerned is ridiculous.

I don't remember who I got into it with over Lars vs. AJax but mea culpa to you. [Although at the time Lars was still a much better prospect IMO, Austin has since lapped him]

[Matsui55]

Law was asked if he's worried about the poor play from Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo ...

"Not really concerned about Anderson or Rizzo, no. I just don't react much to short down periods from prospects I like. It's < 50 games in each case."

Rizzo hitting .242 between A+ and AA in 260 ab.
Anderson hitting .207 at AAA in 164 ab.

Talk about Cherry picking numbers.

Anderson's ONLY period of success over the past year and a half consists of a small number of AB's at AA- after a complete season of failure in 2009- at AA.

It is disingenuous, at best, to dismiss Anderson's poor showing in AAA without conceding that he has had only about a month of success over the past year and a half.

[awy]

that evaluation isn't really based on any numbers, just scouting reports.

toools

[bmxstreetrider86]

remember that brett jackson guy no one wanted last year?

.316/.420/.517 in the FSL right now 43/63 BB/K