Another team's prospects thread

[Seker22]

Another sad turn for the Marlins Jeff Allison.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2545634

Makes me appreciate having a guy like Hughes even more.

[Philip Hughes Fan]

He is the Twins Phil Hughes but some say he is the best in the minors but,
Most say Hughes is.

Actually, most say Bailey is.

[flymick24]

Actually, most say Bailey is.

i'd say they're about even with one another - bailey's fastball is better and he has better overall stuff, but hughes' secondary pitches are better, along with his control.

they're also virtually the same age.

[ppa79]

One thing I wonder about Bailey is that is he getting batters out by just blowing his fastball by them. Remember Josh Becket put up great numbers in the minors high k/9, low WHIP, low era, and low BB/9, but never had command of his secondary stuff. I have a feeling Bailey might follow the path of Josh Beckett. Someone who has great raw stuff, but will be inconsisent in the majors. While Hughes will be like Peavy. Scouts and websites like BA tend to overevaluate raw stuff instead of looking at the command and control of the secondary pitches. Its those secondary pitches that determine if you'll be a Josh Beckett or Jake Peavy.

[homer2931]

One thing I wonder about Bailey is that is he getting batters out by just blowing his fastball by them. Remember Josh Becket put up great numbers in the minors high k/9, low WHIP, low era, and low BB/9, but never had command of his secondary stuff. I have a feeling Bailey might follow the path of Josh Beckett. Someone who has great raw stuff, but will be inconsisent in the majors. While Hughes will be like Peavy. Scouts and websites like BA tend to overevaluate raw stuff instead of looking at the command and control of the secondary pitches. Its those secondary pitches that determine if you'll be a Josh Beckett or Jake Peavy.

Outside of an awful 2006 Beckett's current career isnt that bad of a path for a pitcher

[ppa79]

Outside of an awful 2006 Beckett's current career isnt that bad of a path for a pitcher

But Beckett was projected to be an Ace. Scouts were talking about multiple Cy youngs and him being one of the top pitchers in the AL. Aside from the 2003 playoffs I haven't seen it yet.

[NyyNjnNyg]

One thing I wonder about Bailey is that is he getting batters out by just blowing his fastball by them. Remember Josh Becket put up great numbers in the minors high k/9, low WHIP, low era, and low BB/9, but never had command of his secondary stuff. I have a feeling Bailey might follow the path of Josh Beckett. Someone who has great raw stuff, but will be inconsisent in the majors. While Hughes will be like Peavy. Scouts and websites like BA tend to overevaluate raw stuff instead of looking at the command and control of the secondary pitches. Its those secondary pitches that determine if you'll be a Josh Beckett or Jake Peavy.

That sounds a lot like Pelfrey too. He has a great fastball, good command with it, but his secondary pitches are nothing.

[homer2931]

But Beckett was projected to be an Ace. Scouts were talking about multiple Cy youngs and him being one of the top pitchers in the AL. Aside from the 2003 playoffs I haven't seen it yet.

I think if the Reds were offered a future for Bailey similar to Beckett's first 4 years (minus the injuries) they'd probably take it. Beckett isnt that bad of a pitcher to be compared to

[ppa79]

I think if the Reds were offered a future for Bailey similar to Beckett's first 4 years (minus the injuries) they'd probably take it. Beckett isnt that bad of a pitcher to be compared to

They probably would since Beckett is still better than most of the pitchers out there. But so far Beckett hasn't fulfilled the ace type potential that many said that he would do.

[Philip Hughes Fan]

But Beckett was projected to be an Ace. Scouts were talking about multiple Cy youngs and him being one of the top pitchers in the AL. Aside from the 2003 playoffs I haven't seen it yet.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the minors Beckett had very good control of his curve. There really was no reason to think, if healthy, Beckett wouldn't become an Ace. Obviously it hasn't worked out that way, but the blisters and shoulder problems (in 2005) were most of the problem, in my opinion.

As for Bailey, I doubt the command is as good as Hughes', but his curveball is supposed to be nasty. The Reds also had him work extensively on his command of his secondary pitches in A ball, a lot of the time at the expense of his numbers. I agree with you about BA sometimes overlloking command too much (Lester comes to mind), but I think it's the case here. That's not to say Bailey is clearly better than Hughes of course, but it's close enough that I can understand and even agree with ranking Bailey a very slightly better prospect than Hughes.

[NJASDJDH]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the minors Beckett had very good control of his curve. There really was no reason to think, if healthy, Beckett wouldn't become an Ace. Obviously it hasn't worked out that way, but the blisters and shoulder problems (in 2005) were most of the problem, in my opinion.

As for Bailey, I doubt the command is as good as Hughes', but his curveball is supposed to be nasty. The Reds also had him work extensively on his command of his secondary pitches in A ball, a lot of the time at the expense of his numbers. I agree with you about BA sometimes overlloking command too much (Lester comes to mind), but I think it's the case here. That's not to say Bailey is clearly better than Hughes of course, but it's close enough that I can understand and even agree with ranking Bailey a very slightly better prospect than Hughes.

What he said. Bailey is a better prospect than Pelfrey and has more than a fastball.

[ppa79]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the minors Beckett had very good control of his curve. There really was no reason to think, if healthy, Beckett wouldn't become an Ace. Obviously it hasn't worked out that way, but the blisters and shoulder problems (in 2005) were most of the problem, in my opinion.

He's been healthy this year. I think his command holds him back.

As for Bailey, I doubt the command is as good as Hughes', but his curveball is supposed to be nasty. The Reds also had him work extensively on his command of his secondary pitches in A ball, a lot of the time at the expense of his numbers. I agree with you about BA sometimes overlloking command too much (Lester comes to mind), but I think it's the case here. That's not to say Bailey is clearly better than Hughes of course, but it's close enough that I can understand and even agree with ranking Bailey a very slightly better prospect than Hughes.

BA ranks Bailey ahead of Hughes because Bailey has better raw stuff than Hughes. In 2002, BA had ranked Beckett #1 and Peavy # 22. But because of Peavy's command of his secondary pitches he was able to become an elite pitcher while Beckett still hasn't. Beckett's raw stuff is better than Peavy's, but Peavy's command of his secondary pitches is better than Beckett's.

[DaYanks4Life]

BA ranks Bailey ahead of Hughes because Bailey has better raw stuff than Hughes. In 2002, BA had ranked Beckett #1 and Peavy # 22. But because of Peavy's command of his secondary pitches he was able to become an elite pitcher while Beckett still hasn't. Beckett's raw stuff is better than Peavy's, but Peavy's command of his secondary pitches is better than Beckett's.

Good example.

[NJASDJDH]

He's been healthy this year. I think his command holds him back.



BA ranks Bailey ahead of Hughes because Bailey has better raw stuff than Hughes. In 2002, BA had ranked Beckett #1 and Peavy # 22. But because of Peavy's command of his secondary pitches he was able to become an elite pitcher while Beckett still hasn't. Beckett's raw stuff is better than Peavy's, but Peavy's command of his secondary pitches is better than Beckett's.

Prior to this year, Josh Beckett and Jake Peavy had equal career ERA+s.

[Philip Hughes Fan]

He's been healthy this year. I think his command holds him back.

Yes and no. He hasn't had any problems yet, but he's been afraid to throw curveballs in warmup sessions for fear of getting a blister. Because of this he has no command at all on his curveball, nor is it as sharp as it used to be, and hitters are rightfully sitting on his fastball.

[Philip Hughes Fan]

Prior to this year, Josh Beckett and Jake Peavy had equal career ERA+s.

And as bad as Beckett has been, when you adjust for league and park Peavy has almost certainly been a little bit worse.

[MaximMan121]

I could be way off here, but:

I seem to remember readnig that ERA+ does automatically adjust for league and park.

[homer2931]

And as bad as Beckett has been, when you adjust for league and park Peavy has almost certainly been a little bit worse.

ERA+ does adjust for it
BTW Beckett's current BB rate is 2.6/9. His problem is 1.3 HR/9 which could be a problem with the curve, but opposing batters are only hitting .124 off it (according to ESPN) so if the curve isnt affecting his BB rate or his AVG against, I'm skeptical its driving his HR rate

[Philip Hughes Fan]

I could be way off here, but:

I seem to remember readnig that ERA+ does automatically adjust for league and park.

It does. I wasn't clear in my last post, I meant this season -- and I haven't checked either pitcher's ERA+ so far this year -- I would guess Peavy's is higher because of those reasons despite the lower ERA.

[bmxstreetrider86]

ERA+ does adjust for it
BTW Beckett's current BB rate is 2.6/9. His problem is 1.3 HR/9 which could be a problem with the curve, but opposing batters are only hitting .124 off it (according to ESPN) so if the curve isnt affecting his BB rate or his AVG against, I'm skeptical its driving his HR rate

for the record, i believe there is such thing as control, not walking too many people, and command, throwing quality pitches

beckett had good control, but poor command (hence the high HR rate)

[homer2931]

for the record, i believe there is such thing as control, not walking too many people, and command, throwing quality pitches

beckett had good control, but poor command (hence the high HR rate)

I just don't get why his curve doesnt give up many basehits, but would give up HR's

[NJASDJDH]

It does. I wasn't clear in my last post, I meant this season -- and I haven't checked either pitcher's ERA+ so far this year -- I would guess Peavy's is higher because of those reasons despite the lower ERA.

Beckett's ERA+ this year: 95
Peavy's ERA+ this year: 89

[bmxstreetrider86]

I just don't get why his curve doesnt give up many basehits, but would give up HR's

i think its decieving when it comes to becketts CB not giving up much hits. it just seems that AL hitters have quickly noticed the beckett cant throw his curve for strike consistently, so they only swing at it with 2 strikes, thats why he doesnt give up more hits on his CB

since the hitters essentially come up to the plate looking fastball, and beckett cant locate it very well, he gives up tons of HR's

[JavyVazquezIsSick]

Beckett's ERA+ this year: 95
Peavy's ERA+ this year: 89

Where do you get updated park adjusted stats on the current year?

[Soriambi]

Where do you get updated park adjusted stats on the current year?

The Hardball Times, for one, has ERA+:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstat...&league_filter[0]=2&orderBy=eraPlus&direction=DESC&page=1

[Snatch Catch]

Miller probably is trying to become a Super 2, rather than having to wait for the full arb clock to run.

Then again, someone with more knowledge of the subject explaining it better would probably be for the best. I just have the idea that under a certain number of innings pitched, but in the top 15% of the league as decided by an arbitrator, prospects can become Super 2 and opt for higher arbitration payouts or an earlier FA after a specific amount of ML time. Someone who understands it full yexplaining would be much appreciated.

You need 86 days to become a Super Two. It's too late already.

[spiritof27]

You need 86 days to become a Super Two. It's too late already.

I believe I read that it's not a specific amount of days, but rather being within a certain percentage of all the call-ups from that year. I could be mistaken, but I don't think so.

[Tabata]

I someone give me good scouting reports on:

Fernando Martinez
Elvis Andrus
Deolis Guerra


Thank you

[AustinTXHorn]

Bryce Cox will be the best pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen not named Papelbon (if he stays in the bullpen) halfway through next season.

[bmxstreetrider86]

thats a little bold of you. the way hansen preformed, i think the red sox will be more carefull with cox

[BlueStrawberry]

thats a little bold of you. the way hansen preformed, i think the red sox will be more carefull with cox

Cox, in my mind, is much more advanced than Hansen coming out of college.

[bmxstreetrider86]

i disagree with you, becuase if it were not for his run in the college WS, people probably wouldnt be as fond of him as they were. he has great stuff, but i dont know how his control will hold up in the long run, as it has been spotty in his college career. like hansen, i want to see him succeed in the high minors before i call him further along than hansen was. add the fact that cox started in a lower level becuase the sox didnt think he was advanced as hansen or they were afraid that he would be rushed through the minors, and that adds up to me not believeing he will see the majors next year, or at best case scenario, he might come up when rosters expand

[DaYanks4Life]

Cox, in my mind, is much more advanced than Hansen coming out of college.

Didn't he have major control problems?

[ryanm1058123]

reliever flavor of the year presented to you by the Red Sox! First it's Craig Hansen, then it's Bryce Cox. What suprises will we have next year? Only way to find out.. tune in!

[JeterRodriguezSheff]

The thing that concerns be about Cox, is that he just recently fixed his mechanics or whatever. Sure he is great for the time being, but what happens if they go out of whack again? Will he be able to mantain his current mechanics for a long period of time from season to season? It is easy to fall into bad habbits.

[BlueStrawberry]

Didn't he have major control problems?

He changed his motion mid-season. I believe he had 2 walks TOTAL since the change in college. He not only has had good control, but his command of the fastball is great, which is why I like him better than Hansen.

[BlueStrawberry]

The thing that concerns be about Cox, is that he just recently fixed his mechanics or whatever. Sure he is great for the time being, but what happens if they go out of whack again? Will he be able to mantain his current mechanics for a long period of time. Iis easy to fall into bad habbits.

This is really the only question mark about him. He is destroying high A.

[BlueStrawberry]

reliever flavor of the year presented to you by the Red Sox! First it's Craig Hansen, then it's Bryce Cox. What suprises will we have next year? Only way to find out.. tune in!

Bryce Cox could get major league hitters out right now, no matter what the name is on the front of his jersey is.

[DaYanks4Life]

He changed his motion mid-season. I believe he has had 3 walks TOTAL since the change. He not only has had good control, but his command of the fastball is great, which is why I like him better than Hansen.

OK, I think Hanson was rushed but should be a quality set-up man for a long time. I like Delcarmen too and see him growing confidence in his role this year.

[ryanm1058123]

Bryce Cox could also cure AIDS and save a young girl from a burning building all at the same time

[BlueStrawberry]

Bryce Cox could also cure AIDS and save a young girl from a burning building all at the same time

You bring so much information to this board. I really don't care if you believe Bryce Cox is good or not. But the fact you deny his numbers, his stuff, and his obvious change is pretty funny. I'm sure its only hype though.

[BlueStrawberry]

OK, I think Hanson was rushed but should be a quality set-up man for a long time. I like Delcarmen too and see him growing confidence in his role this year.

I'm actually not a big Hansen fan. He has absolutley zero command of his fastball and his slider is inconsistent. It was inconsistent in college to but since he threw it at 90 he could get away with it. I hope he recovers and finds himself.

[bmxstreetrider86]

You bring so much information to this board. I really don't care if you believe Bryce Cox is good or not. But the fact you deny his numbers, his stuff, and his obvious change is pretty funny. I'm sure its only hype though.

the sample size with his "current" mechanics is not substanial enough for me to warrant saying he could get major league hitters out rite now

[ryanm1058123]

You bring so much information to this board. I really don't care if you believe Bryce Cox is good or not. But the fact you deny his numbers, his stuff, and his obvious change is pretty funny. I'm sure its only hype though.

I never denied his stuff. I just don't believe he could get MLB hitters out right now not even 3 months removed from playing in college ball. There is a lot of hype around him considering how bad the Red Sox bullpen has been this year.

[DaYanks4Life]

Bryce Cox could get major league hitters out right now, no matter what the name is on the front of his jersey is.

I'm sure he could but if many more hitters reach base then he gets out, thats not good. Thats what they said about Hansen and you see what happened to him. Very few arms can go from college to bigs in less than a year.

[BlueStrawberry]

I never denied his stuff. I just don't believe he could get MLB hitters out right now not even 3 months removed from playing in college ball. There is a lot of hype around him considering how bad the Red Sox bullpen has been this year.

There is hype about him because people actually got to see him on TV in the CWS, where he was amazing.

[BlueStrawberry]

the sample size with his "current" mechanics is not substanial enough for me to warrant saying he could get major league hitters out rite now

Seeing him recently, only a week ago, I can tell you that if he pitched that way in the majors he would get hitters out.

[ryanm1058123]

it does not matter. you can tear through high a all you want. you can tear through college hitters all you want. it still does not mean he is MLB ready right now.

[DaYanks4Life]

I'm actually not a big Hansen fan. He has absolutley zero command of his fastball and his slider is inconsistent. It was inconsistent in college to but since he threw it at 90 he could get away with it. I hope he recovers and finds himself.

Same could've been said about Scott Proctor the last 2 years but he really rounded into form to become an invaluable component for our team.

[BlueStrawberry]

it does not matter. you can tear through high a all you want. you can tear through college hitters all you want. it still does not mean he is MLB ready right now.

When was the last time you saw him pitch?