Baseball Prospectus keeps daily tabs on teams' chances of making the playoffs. Discuss that in in this thread.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php
Baseball Prospectus keeps daily tabs on teams' chances of making the playoffs. Discuss that in in this thread.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php
Based on my own biases, instincts and observations (hereafter known as 'my opinion'), I'm betting that the playoff scenario for 2006 will be:
AL EAST: Sox
AL CENTRAL: Other Sox
AL WEST: Rangers
AL WILDCARD: Tigons...or the Ligers
NL EAST: Mets
NL CENTRAL: Reds
NL WEST: Dodgers
NL WILDCARD: Cards
AL EAST: Red Sox
AL CENT: White Sox
AL WEST: Athletics
AL WILD: Tigers
ALDS Matchups: White Sox vs. Athletics, Tigers vs. Red Sox
NL EAST: Mets
NL CENT: Cardinals
NL WEST: Padres
NL WILD: Dodgers
NLDS Matchups: Mets vs. Dodgers, Cardinals vs. Padres.
As much as I hate to say it, the Yankees are due to miss the playoffs one of these years, and this may be the one, considering all of the injuries they're dealing with. I'm hoping that they'll prove me wrong.
AL EAST: Red Sox
AL CENT: White Sox
AL WEST: Athletics
AL WILD: Tigers
NL EAST: Mets
NL CENT: Cardinals
NL WEST: Giants
NL WILD: Astros
You'll just say the worst of me with the hope they'll understand
No, they know you're just a boy
So grow up and be a man
Little baby, kicking, you scream and whine
Victims pay the price eventually
Al East:Yankees
AL Central:Tigers
West:A's
Wild: White Sox
NL East:Mets
Central:Cards
West:Giants
Wildcard:Astros
Yankees vs. Tigers Yankees in 4
White Sox vs. A's: White Sox in 3
Yankees vs. White Sox: White sox in 6
Mets vs. Astros: Mets in 3
Cards vs the Giants:Cards in 3
Mets Vs. The cards: Mets in 5
Mets vs. The White Sox: White Sox in 5
Yankees win the series, they will turn this thing around -- hopefully.
I'd be willing to put $1 on the O's.
AL
East: Sox
Central: Sox
West: A's
WC: Yankees
Red Sox vs. A's - Red Sox in 4
White Sox vs. Yankees - White Sox in 4
White Sox vs. Red Sox - White Sox in 5
NL
East: Mets
Central: Cardinals
West: Dodgers
WC: Reds
Mets vs. Reds - Mets in 5
Cardinals vs. Dodgers - Dodgers in 4
Mets vs. Dodgers - Mets in 6
White Sox vs. Mets - Mets in 7
If someone offers you 10,000:1 odds on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I will be a very rich man.
I think it's very interesting to see the Rangers has a heavy favorite to win the AL West despite the fact that the Rangers are 1.5 behind and Oakland is a solid second half team.
I guess that's because the Rangers have (apparently) played the toughest schedule in baseball so far. But still...
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Athletics
AL WC: Tigers
NL East: Hahaha
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers
NL WC: Padres
Tigers/Mets World Series -- Tigers win.
The Sox have gotten lucky - their pythagorean record doesn't translate into winning the division.
Here's to you, Mr. Robinson. Jesus loves you more than you Cano.
NYYFans Fantasy Baseball - Springfield Nuclear Power Plant
World's Greatest Yankee Blog
Why don't you wake Pythagorous up - maybe I'll drill him the ass!Originally Posted by Stupid Flanders
Sorry, channeling my inner Pedro.
92 pythag wins for us, 95 for you. What exactly does translate into winning the division? It's not like your pythag record is much better.
The Yankees consistently outperformed their pythag record during the Torre era.
-- 1.25.06, Steve Buckley, Boston Herald on Theo's return to the Red Sox
"It took several different statements, on several different pages, to announce that everyone is on the same page."
AL East - Red Sox
AL Central - Tigers
AL West - Rangers
AL Wild - Yankees
Yankees vs. Tigers (ALDS), Tigers win in five.
Red Sox vs. Rangers (ALDS), Rangers win in seven.
Tigers vs. Rangers (ALCS), Tigers win in four
NL East - Take a meticulous look at the stats. Then, take a guess.
NL Central - Reds
NL West - Padres
NL Wild - Dodgers
Dodgers vs. Mets (NLDS), Mets win in six.
Reds vs. Padres (NLDS), Padres win in six.
Mets vs. Padres (NLCS), Mets win in five.
Mets vs. Tigers, either team wins in seven.
Yet I'd rather be "lucky" and keep winning games, than being "unlucky" and losing. Do you think they would take away a division title because their pythagorean record wasn't as good as another team?
For a whole season it doesn't. But from this point forward it does. If you take their expected winning % for the games remaining, plus the wins they already have, they come with 96.1 wins, to 94.7 for the yanks. Not that a) that's a big difference, or b) either team is likely to do exactly what the pythagorean formula predicts, but to the extent they've gotten lucky so far, that could be enough to carry them if neither team is lucky or unlucky the rest of the way. (Of course, the yanks may get even fewer games out of Sheff and Matsui in the second half than in the first, which would make the formula invalid for us anyway).
Win the AL East. End of story.
GO YANKS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 15 16 20 21 23 32 37 42 44 49 51
"We play today, we win today. 'Dassit!'
In memory of George Steinbrenner & Bob Sheppard. Rest In Peace.
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: ChiSox
AL West: Oakland
AL Wild Card: Detroit
NL East: Mets
NL Central: St Louis
NL West: Padres
NL Wild Card: Dodgers
Jesus Montero since June 1 (286 at-bats):
.325/.386/.605/.991
July 1 (182 at-bats):
.348/.417/.658/1.075
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: ChiSox
AL West: Oakland
AL Wild Card: Papelbon
NL East: Mets
NL Central: St Louis
NL West: Red Sox
NL Wild Card: Dodgers
Slaughter Is The Best Medicine
-=2009=WORLD=CHAMPIONS=-
FIRE JETER
I wonder who would win in the ALCS Papelbon vs the Red Sox
2004 and 2007 Boston Red Sox World Series Champs!
Marietta_soxfan = guy
Papelbon.
Slaughter Is The Best Medicine
-=2009=WORLD=CHAMPIONS=-
FIRE JETER
This post literally had me laughing out loud. Well done.
OK, but what about Papelbon vs. Dit-ka???
Frm: MSN <alert@mobile.msn.com>
Msg:
MLB*STL:0BOS:3*F*
11:47PM 10/27/04
No contest here... Dit-ka!
You'll just say the worst of me with the hope they'll understand
No, they know you're just a boy
So grow up and be a man
Little baby, kicking, you scream and whine
Victims pay the price eventually
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Red Sox
AL West: Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Red Sox
NL East: Red Sox
NL Central: Red Sox
NL West: Red Sox
NL Wild Card: Red Sox
Last edited by JDPNYY; 06-29-06 at 09:55 PM.
If I had 3 wishes... One of my wishes would be to make a select few of you Pirates Fans.
I don't know man, with that slup, the Red Sox might beat out the Cards
Papelbon.
Slaughter Is The Best Medicine
-=2009=WORLD=CHAMPIONS=-
FIRE JETER
Keep underestimating Papelbon. You'll be sorry.
Slaughter Is The Best Medicine
-=2009=WORLD=CHAMPIONS=-
FIRE JETER
hehe
"And I wonder, when I sing along with you. If everything
could ever feel this real forever. If anything could ever be this good again."
My friend, is that the little Dit-ka or a regular Dit-ka?No contest here... Dit-ka!
Long live Da Coach with his titanium hip!
"I have discovered in 20 years of moving around the ballpark that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats." -Bill Veeck
Average wins by AL Wild Card: 97.2
Average wins by NL Wild Card: 87.8
~9 1/2 game difference, the NL sucks.
My fav was who wins the Indy 500, the field or Dit-Ka drivng Da Bears bus.No contest here... Dit-ka!
AL East: Yankees
Central: Tigers
West: Angels
WC: Red Sox
Red Sox @ Tigers: Red Sox in 5
Angels @ Yankees: Yankees in 3
Red Sox @ Yankees: Yankees in 7
NL East: Mets
Central: Reds
West: Padres
WC: Braves... yes, the Braves
Reds @ Mets: Mets in 4
Braves @ Padres: Braves in 5
Braves @ Mets: Mets in 6
Mets @ Yankees: Yankees in 6
Thanks man...I really hope the reds make it to the post season...I hate the cardinals and tony"choke"larussaBased on my own biases, instincts and observations (hereafter known as 'my opinion'
AL EAST: Sox
AL CENTRAL: Other Sox
AL WEST: Rangers
AL WILDCARD: Tigons...or the Ligers
NL EAST: Mets
NL CENTRAL: Reds
NL WEST: Dodgers
NL WILDCARD: Cards
According to the postseason odds the Yankees now have a better chance than the Red Sox. All biases aside I see The Yankees winning the AL East, the Tigets winning the central, and one of the Sox taking the wild card.
Yeah..I can understand your hate considering the Reds have been the drudge of the NL Central for ages.
Yeah..the Reds have a shot..just kidding. The Reds will find a way to choke..they always do.
Best,
Cardinal nation
Vin Scully on Stan Musial (aka Baseball's Perfect Knight):
"The guy was so good, he'd take your breath away"
Nothing better than seeing a Cardinals fan talking smack to a Reds fan on a Yankees message board.
Slaughter Is The Best Medicine
-=2009=WORLD=CHAMPIONS=-
FIRE JETER
it's all about diversity....Nothing better than seeing a Cardinals fan talking smack to a Reds fan on a Yankees message board.
Plus..every guy has to have an AL team, right...mine happens to be the Yankees.
Vin Scully on Stan Musial (aka Baseball's Perfect Knight):
"The guy was so good, he'd take your breath away"
A few things that jumped out at me from the postseason numbers as of today:
1. Blue Jays still only at 17% to make the playoffs despite only being 4 games back. Not surprising when ou look at them only having 25 home games remaining, though.
2. White Sox still most likely to take the AL Wild Card. Twins surprisingly only at 13% despite being the hottest team in baseball.
3. Sox have a 50-40 edge over Yanks for the division.
I know these numbers mean nothings, but some of them are interesting noetheless.
The Curse
9/4/18 - 10/27/04
Don't act like you've been there before. Act like you can't wait to go back.
AL:
EAST: Yankees
CENTRAL: Tigers
WEST: Angels
WC: Red Sox
NL:
Does it really matter?
The 11th Commandment - "Thou shall NEVER count out The New York Yankees"
EAST: Red Sox
CENTRAL: Tigers
WEST: Angels
WC: Twins
The Curse
9/4/18 - 10/27/04
Don't act like you've been there before. Act like you can't wait to go back.
Whoever wants to see the odds of each team making the playoffs, please see link below:
http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?i=1
Rob Neyer from ESPN mentioned this site in his chat today
do these odds take into account that boston is known to fold like a lawn chair come late august early september?
ill go with
yanks again
tigers
angels
twins
mets
cards
la
braves
World Champions
1923 1927 1928 1932 1936 1937 1938 1939 1941 1943 1947 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1956 1958 1961 1962 1977 1978 1996 1998 1999 2000 2009
You honestly think Boston won't make the playoffs? Come on, that's a damn good team.
the sox wont be able to hold us off to win the division so that leaves the wildcard and i think the twins or the white sox will wind up with that.
World Champions
1923 1927 1928 1932 1936 1937 1938 1939 1941 1943 1947 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1956 1958 1961 1962 1977 1978 1996 1998 1999 2000 2009
I honestly think it's more likely for us to win the wild card than the division. Look at the daily sim projections, Yankees and Red Sox are both predicted to win more games than the Twins and White Sox. I think this might be the year of ALCS Round 3 (which I wouldn't mind, I enjoyed the 2003 ALCS immensely...2004 was just an abomination).
Of course, that hasn't happened in any of the last three years, but don't let that stop you.
The Curse
9/4/18 - 10/27/04
Don't act like you've been there before. Act like you can't wait to go back.
Don't confuse him with the facts.
the fact that the sox had a 3.5 game lead last september 12 tells me it did happen.
World Champions
1923 1927 1928 1932 1936 1937 1938 1939 1941 1943 1947 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1956 1958 1961 1962 1977 1978 1996 1998 1999 2000 2009
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