This is more or less what I heard on ESPN radio - I heard Buster Olney say the Yanks will win the division and he really likes their offense but the Sox pitching is better and he thinks this is the reason they would be the more likely to win the WS.
Comments
He's an idiot.
Nothing to say
Buster being Buster.
Wouldnt it be boring if everyone thought the Yankees were going to win the WS? It's not like we've won it more recently than the Sox.
I'm glad they have differing opinions, as long as its not in a malicious scumbag way like Jim Caple
Why is it anytime someone thinks a team other then the Yanks will win the WS....someone has to start a thread??
Jeez people....NOT EVERYONE is gonna pick the Yanks to win it all. Accept it, and move on.
Jesus Montero since June 1 (286 at-bats):
.325/.386/.605/.991
July 1 (182 at-bats):
.348/.417/.658/1.075
It's the anti-Yankees consipracy.Originally Posted by dabomb2045
Everyone who does not pick the Yankees to win 115 games and win it all is a biased lunatic, don't you know?
Who is Buster Olney? ((in best Pedro Martinez voice))
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at the "Sox pitching" being the reason they're more likely to win the World Series.
Well. Then. That's it. I'm not watching the Yankees this year. If they aren't gonna win, I'll just skip it this year.
Get 'em next year Yanks!
If I had 3 wishes... One of my wishes would be to make a select few of you Pirates Fans.
Yeah, seriously. Neither team is a sure bet w/ the way some of the AL has improved. And, at the same time, neither team are exactly longshots. It's so up for grabs, it's not like comparing the Angels' chances against the Royals' chances, which I don't think Olney is really doing.
Caple is exactly that, a malicious scumbag. Why spend the energy and effort to write a book called "The Devil Wears Pinstripes" when you can just as well use that time in your life to promote and discover something about a team you DO like? What a puny mind. So-called journalist. Add Jayson Stark to that list, too. People rip on Gammons, Gammons just annoys us because he's a Red Sox fan, but he seems good natured in his broadcasts. Jayson Stark on the other hand - you can tell he is probably one of those people who are very difficult to deal with in real life because they are constantly angry and sarcastic. I'd hate to be a waiter at his table or his secretary or his mechanic, I bet the guy is a real picnic.
Boston's staff is just as injury plagued and up in the air as ours. I don't get why people are citing them with an advantage because of their 'enormous depth at pitching'. Who do they have now that they traded Arroyo for a poor defending, all or nothing hitter like Pena? Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Clement, Wells. That isn't too impressive considering Clement tanks in the second half, Wakefield relies on his knuckler, Schilling will never be the 2004 Schilling again, Wells is pissed, Beckett still has to prove himself in the AL, and Papelbon may or may not be in the rotation. Either way, he has to prove himself to be a good starter before I buy into all the hype around him.
Boston's bullpen is good. I'll give them that. However if I were a Sox fan, I'd worry about Julian Tavarez. 2004 was his best season and he reverted back to normal(just below 4.00) in 2005 and performed horribly in the postseason if my memory serves me correct. Now he is coming into the AL a year older against harder hitting lineups. The same thing goes for Seanez, except Seanez has actually been consistantly good when healthy.
I'll believe that when I see it. I've seen so many people say the same thing with such certainty. I'm expecting Schilling to have a huge year.Schilling will never be the 2004 Schilling again
How Rich?
“I may not have been the best Yankee to put on the pinstripes, but I am the proudest.”
- Billy Martin
Sounds like Buster is playing the "pitching and defense" card...you can take a number of different paths to get to the playoffs, but you won't proceed far without pitching and defense. If Buster sees the Red Sox as superior to the Yankees in that regard, then his conclusion makes some sense.
"...it was blood, my blood, and it was coming from the sutures in my ankle. You’re either stupid or bitter if you think otherwise." --Curt Schilling on the Bloody Sock, 3/17/07
Screen names that are designed to bait are much more effective when the player's name is spelled correctly.
But a Vanderbilt idiot!
Either way, Buster is a Sox fan so it comes as no surprise. Both the teams pitching staffs have major question marks as of right now anyways.
“I mean, people knew that Brown was out there, and that Randy was ornery all the time. And Pavano is whoever he is. But if you’re their manager, you can’t go out and write about them like that.”
...and no one cares.
Screen names that are designed to bait are much more effective when the player's name is spelled correctly.
Slaughter Is The Best Medicine
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FIRE JETER
Buster Olney =
Really, their rotation is just as much of a question mark as the Yankees if not more. Josh Beckett has been injured, Wells has been inconsistent and on the DL on and off with back spasms, Wakefield seems to have one good year followed by one not so good (plus his catcher Mirabelli is gone), and Curt Schilling is somewhat nonexistent. Unless you count him "pitching a gem" against Boston College.
Screen names that are designed to bait are much more effective when the player's name is spelled correctly.
He is never going to be able to push off his ankle without discomfort. Ever. Schilling and the Sox FO basically said they had to invent ankle surgery to get him on the mound for Game 6.
It bugs me when people will say they fully expect Schilling to rebound but then they say 'Johnson is going to tank soon, he has no cartilege in his knee'. Curt Schilling doesn't have an ankle to push off!
I really have a hard time understanding this. I respect Olney and think he is generally unbiased but this prediction just blows my mind. The Sox pitching is not great at all.
If you wanted to make predictions using last year's numbers, the Yankees starting 5 is far better than Boston's starting 5.
Using '05 stats, Bostons's starting 5 (Schilling, Wells, Wakefield, Clement and Beckett) combined for 672.2 innings of work with a combined ERA of 5.59.
New York on the other hand (Unit, Moose, Chacon, Wang, and Pavano) threw for 773.1 innings and a combined 4.18 era. In the last few months of the season, NY had the best pitching in the AL. If you make the argument that Pavano is gonna be an injury case all year, then throw in Small's numbers and the overall numbers get even better.
Boston may have a decent middle relief... but who are they setting up saves for??? Timlin's numbers are also deceiving because his era is low despite the fact he gave up a LOT of inherited runs.
Boston also has to count on 5 new pieces fitting the puzzle in the lineup (crisp, lowell, gonzalez, loretta and youkilus/snow) and there is no more tailor made catcher for Wakefield.
NY on the other hand has pretty much the same players taking the field aside from Damon who has shown he can fit in anywhere
I can't fault him for making this prediction, I mean it's all just based on opinion, but it really is laughable that he's basing it on pitching prior to the season. It is almost a GIVEN that Beckett will be injured at some point during the season. It's also almost a GIVEN that Schilling will never be Schilling 2004 ever again. Also almost a GIVEN that Wells will suck and be injured. Then you have Wakefield, who has gotten progressively worse and lost his catcher and Clement, who just got completely bombed last year.
Now the Yankees have a ton of question marks too, but not like Boston to be quite honest. It's not a GIVEN that Wang will be hurt, although it's not an impossibility. It's not a GIVEN that Chacon will revert a great deal, although it's not an impossibility. It's not a GIVEN that Johnson will be less effective or injured, although it's not an impossibility. It's not a GIVEN that Mussina will be completely useless, but it's not an impossibility. It's almost a GIVEN that Pavano will be injured, almost a GIVEN that Wright will suck.
The point to all this is, there are big question marks in both rotations, but you have to admit the Yankees have the better on paper rotation. Of the aces of the staff (I'm calling Johnson and Beckett), even though Beckett is younger, he's the one who is much more likely to be injured. As for the rest, Schilling and Mussina are not the pitchers they used to be, and at this point I'd rather have Chacon and Wang filling out 3/4 than Clement and Wakefield. We have a ton of guys we can march out there for our 5th starter, as do Boston, but that's just a 5th starter, toss-up.
Whether or not it all comes together will determine who actually has the better chance at the WS, but it's crazy to say the Red Sox have such pitching depth and it's the reason for their WS run this year.
.....
Just because he picked the Red Sox doesn't make him an idiot.......in fact, he's right......boston has a better pitching staff then New York, theres no question. If everybody stays healthy on both sides, Boston is better
Let's get Soriano to play Centerfield...............just kidding
Agreed. People are entitled to their opinions.
and entitled to opinions on others' opinions, etc.... it's a message board!
I don't understand how anyone could think Boston is better at this point. Schilling and Wells are both old, and have had major injury problems in the past. Beckett has also had some injuries. They just traded Bronson Arroyo, who was a pretty durable starter for them. It will be interesting to see what happens with Wakefield now that Mirabelli is gone. Clement is a pretty good starting pitcher, but was awful in the second half last year. And Papelbon is only a rookie. Plus, who knows about Keith Foulke.
For arguments sake, lets assume Pavano and Wright are out until June. The Yankees still have Johnson, Chacon, Mussina, and Wang. Plus, a much improved bullpen, and a better offense.
Shilling and Wells both old....correct. Wouldnt you say the same about Randy and Mike? Beckett injured all the time.....correct. Pavano - hurt, Wang - Shoulder problems, Wright - cannot make it through a start without getting hit with something. Chacon can he repeat what he did last year? Plus the arguement that a player is only a rookie is weak.....the yanks dont make the playoffs last year without the help of there rookies
Let's get Soriano to play Centerfield...............just kidding
Ha, if everybody stays healthy?? Wells has had back problems for a few years and is 42 years old. Schilling destroyed his ankle and was plagued by it all of last year and when he said he was alright was terrible and is now close to 40. They are two of the main cogs in that rotation and you can bet anything that they will not be very effective this year.
Sure you could say Moose has been injured and I'll give you that and Im assuming he'll have some DL time. You could say RJ is 43, but I will say that he has still pitched 220 innings for the past few years.
Yankees rotation at this point is better and the only way Boston could be better is if they have a couple of their young studs just completely break out into stellar seasons and steal to of the rotation slots.
Is Olney picking the Red Sox this year that big of a deal? It's a prediction and based on ESPN's past predictions, they're wrong just as much as their right. It's really nothing and doesn't deserve any serious discussion about it.
oh great, tear the team down and start to rebuild.
If a Sox team is going to win the World Series this year, it'll be the White Sox again. Kinda hard for Boston to win it when they miss the playoffs this year.
"I just won you the pennant. I got you Steve Trout."
-- George Steinbrenner to Lou Piniella after trading for Trout from the Cubs, 1987.
I'm jus glad to haw hom feel abane
Just in case anyone forgot Espn's amazing predictions for the 2005 season....
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/s...=05expertpicks
Out of a panel of 20 "experts" that work for Espn care to guess how many picked the Whitesox to win the series? Zero. In fact if you look at their predictions and the outcome no one here should be caring one way or another what they say. Too much happens during the season that you can not account for.
btw,Buster had the Twins over the Marlins for the WS title.
Just another meaningless prediction.
I predict the Red Sox don't even make the playoffs this year.
The Yankees are going to win the division by double-digits.
Honestly, I think that Buster Olney is a great sportswriter, and the work he puts in is tremendous. He's also rather unbiased--if anything he leans TOWARDS the Yankees. There's a reason that day in, day out, there's significantly more information on his blog about the Yankees than most other teams, including Boston. He's fairly objective.
Now, I think his comments are right on, in the most predictable way. Our team is better than Bostons for a long season, because our offense is tremendous and our pitching is better than theirs man for man, in terms of average performances. What we don't have is a postseason tested staff. The difference is, our main gamebreaker is Randy Johnson in the playoffs, and his days of being dominant (to the degree that he once was) are behind him. He's still a great pitcher--don't get me wrong, and I hope he unfurls that nasty slider for another season and proves me wrong. Schilling is similar--his days of dominance are far behind him now, after his ankle decided to eat itself alive. He's not going to be as good as Johnson. The difference is Beckett. I have as many questions about his performance in Fenway as anyone else, but let's remember how this guy performed in the postseason against us. He almost singlehandedly won the series for the Marlins. In a postseasno series, right now, I'd pick the Yankees, but that's because I'm biased. I think that it could go either way, and that in a 5 game series seeing Beckett twice, it might swing to the Sox.
This, of course, is all very premature. We don't know who's going to break out and who's going to break down. We do know our hitting is better than theirs, and our pitching is comparable with variance spikes in either direction. This discussion is similar to the recent discussions on why the A's can't win playoff series. Using the composite averages to put teams together the way Oakland does, will generally paint a fairly accurate picture of total output--but that output will not be entirely homogenous, and so it doesn't help predict who will perform in a particular game, on a playoff stage.
The only thing we have to examine that is to look at who performed and who didn't in the past. Beckett has, our starters havn't, with the exception of RJ--and while Becket is young and improving, RJ is old and declining. That's the edge.
Yankees sell. That is why he continually mentions them. If the topic is baseball the Yanks are sure to be mentioned. A column about the Royals will not bring in the people so to speak. I column/blog or even a book (Dynasty) with the topic being Yankees will sure to bring in NY and Boston fans. And right there is an obscene amount of baseball fans. Buster is fine. I like the guy but his identity and most Sox fans are partly based on the Yankees. Love or Hate as long as there is interest the fans will tune in.
Tampa Devil Rays = Indifference
The same can not be said for the Yanks, hence why all the media coverage.
Solid post all around. I think we all know the Yankees will win a ton of games this year. But, as has been the case in recent years, is there enough pitching to win in the playoffs? On the flip side, I'm not sure if the Sox will win enough games to make the playoffs, but if they get there and they're healthy, it seems like they've got some better arms. However, will all the question marks out there, it's all a guessing game at this point.
The Curse
9/4/18 - 10/27/04
Don't act like you've been there before. Act like you can't wait to go back.
When it comes down to it, Wells is still a very good pitcher. It's hard to just laugh off someone who killed us last year on several occasions, at Yankee stadium and at Fenway. Boomer is still a big league pitcher. I would be very very happy to have him as my number 5 pitcher.
Let's line up the lineups, shall we?
RJ-Beckett
Advantage, RJ: He's much more consistently good, and has flashes of greatness. I do think that in terms of highest level of performance, Beckett wins out. When he's on, he's as unhittable as RJ was in his prime--thankfully this happens rarely.
Mussina-Schilling
Tie: Both are injury prone, both rely on calls from the umpire to do their best work at this stage in their careers. Schilling is much more apt to haul back and try to overpower someone, but he's basically left those days behind. I consider this a wash, though if both stay reasonably healthy, Schilling wins by a ways. I'm terrified when mussina is pitching.
Now it gets tougher, because we have to decide who is in the next spots for the yankees. We know it's wakefield for the sox. Given Pavano and Wright are not set for the season (and that neither of them are as good as my pick) I choose Wang.
Wang-Wakefield
Advantage: Wakefield
We know the upside for Wang. I hope he continues improving as he did last season, and remains injury free. Could be a great pithcer. He could also be league average or a bit better, which is more likely. Wakefield, however, is a proven commodity, and as a knuckler, is not very affected by age. As much as I'd like to give this to Wang, you can't, really, especially not with two middle infielders with bad range metrics behind him.
Chacon-Clement
Advantage: Clement
Here's where I get yelled at. I know, I know, sea level Chacon was nothing but nasty for us last year, and I'm actually more excited to see him pitch than any of our other starters. I think of our starters, he's by far the most likely to get 20 wins, if what he showed us last year is for real. That being said, I need to see more to be convinced. Clement, while ending on a horrible note, led the Red Sox staff for the first part of the season. During the Sox attempts to trade him this offseason, I was praying they'd pull the trigger and get Jeremy Reed for him, and I'd laugh as Clement blossomed again. Final choice--they're both question marks, I hope that Chacon pulls ahead, but with his k/9 dropping and his Bapip well below league average, it's tough not to think that part of Chacon's dominance came from his luck with balls put into play.
Pavano/Wright/Small/Desalvo-Wells
Advantage Wells: Clear cut decision there. Whatever you think of the guy, he's a hell of a pitcher to tro out on day 5. None of our choices are particularly inspiring. I already posted my opinion of Wells above, so I won't restate it. Now, I havn't written off Pavano, not by a long shot. Of the starters listed, he's got the strongest chance to pull off a big season, and I pray he does. I just won't count on it.
So, while our ace is better than their ace, mussina ties (and that may be generous--the season will show) schilling, and their bottom three are better than our bottom three. I hope this is wrong, and we just blow them out of the water in both pitching and batting, but this is why it's tough to call the yankees the favorites of a playoff series betwen the two of us. Our hitting is vastly superior to theirs, but that also depends on a lot of people not breaking down. We overpaid for Damon and Matsui, Sheffield is a questionable commodity until we extend his contract, Cano, Posada and Giambi are prone to massive streakiness. It wouldn't take much going wrong to even or even tip the batting scales in their favour, especially if Lowell decides to hit.
Don't get me wrong, we've got the better bats. I'm just playing devil's advocate.
Anyhow, the season will show.
{an open letter to Buster Olney}
Dear Buster,
Shut the f*ck up!
Sincerely,
Ozzie Guillen
To seek the sacred river Alph, To walk the caves of ice
To break my fast on honey dew, And drink the milk of paradise
my next door neighbor, stan, says the devil rays are more likely to win WS than yanks.
moral of this story: nobody gives a crap.
Well Buster is wrong and that is really all there is to it.
The loser now will be later to win...
Yeah, Wells has had back problems, and he is 42, but you are talking about a guy who has had 1 year in the last 11 with fewer than 184 innings and 29 starts. I'll bet he can do what he always does, league average for >175 IP.
Schill, I think he won't be that good. He's getting up there. Maybe, maybe, I could see him tough it out for a 4 ERA over 150 innings or something, which is pretty good, on the order of a 110 ERA+ pitcher, but assuming he can get anywhere near 2004 is crazy.
Also, I don't think Moose is going to be that good. Nothing in his stat line from the last 3 years shows me that he can be more than a 105 ERA+ in 200 IP, at best. The injuries are building up.
RJ will have a 115 ERA+, or greater, in 225 IP. I doubted him last year, but the simple fact is, he can grit it out. Really, all the way. Gritty as all hell.
I guess I'm curious why Beckett is considered the lock. Other than the 2003 post season, when has he CONSISTENTLY been a great pitcher? There's a lot of talk about Randy being old and "his best days being behind him", but when has Beckett put up a season like the 42 year old Johnson did last season? Don't get me wrong, the guy has a ton of potential, but it's hard to win games when you are on the DL.
Guys like Beckett and Kerry Wood get by on reputation and a few big games (2003 post season or the 20 K game for Wood), but when you look at their stats they aren't as impressive as they seem. Remember Jose Rijo put it together for one World Series and had "great stuff", but that didn't make him a given.
Injuries are part of the game. And no matter how much potential a guy has you have to factor his injury patterns in when saying that he is a lock and Randy Johnson isn't. I know the standard argument is that he's young and has plenty of time to acheive greatness. I will not argue that point. But let's wait until it happens to say that he's more of a given than Randy. You are comparing him to a (still) highly effective hall of famer.
Only a Red Sox fan can look at a man in full protective gear during a fight and call him an underdog.
Good post, however I still consider Shilling to be their ace. If you compare shilling to Johnson I almost put it at a tie. Becket is probably better than Mussina, mainly because of Mussina's age and injuries. I'd put Wang over Wakefield, on pure upside alone. Chacon and Clement are a wash if Clement rebounds. The key is Pavano. While everyone may be down on Pavono all the time, I'm excited about him. If he rebounds this season, we're relying on him to essentially be our number 5 guy. Can you imagine a healthy Carl Pavano as our number 5? That would be sweet. Factor in that the return of Pavano makes our bullpen significantly better, and it's a win-win situation. The key is Pavano being healthy...
There are two things I can't imagine. Pavano being healthy and a fifth starter being paid 10 million per year. That being said, I thought he pitched well in his first start of the yar against the Red Sox last year. It seemed so promising at the time. If he can return to that sort of level it will be like finding a 20 dollar bill that you thought you had lost.
Only a Red Sox fan can look at a man in full protective gear during a fight and call him an underdog.
Face it, Onley is neither a Yankee fan or a Red Sox fan, and is just another talking head giving his opinion in mid-March, when there are a thousand variables that will come into play between now and late October. In other words, his prediction means zippo and there are equal numbers of fans in both cities who dislike him.
Similarly, every media person pronounced the Red Sox dead when the Yanks got Damon in December. That was equally uninformed and based on half-baked inputs.
As of now, both teams have lots of pluses and lots of questions. Most of those questions involve health. If both pitching staffs remain healthy, Boston's is probably better, though having Rivera at the end of the pen goes a long way to evening things out. But, either way, both staffs wont remain healthy, and the key will be the extent of the injuries, how good the replacements will be and how fast the injured guys can bounce back to full effectiveness. Parenthetically, one thing that is worrisome is that the Sox seem to have more quality arms in the minors as potential reinforcements, but who knows if that's really true.
The Yankees were fortunate last year that Small, Wang, Chacon and even Leiter could do what they did. None of that was anticipated.
The Red Sox were fortunate that Paplebon could do what he did. That was not anticipated.
The Sox were fortunate that Pavano, Wright and Wang got hurt. All not anticpated (well, except Wright).
The Yanks were fortunate that Schilling and Foulke were injured and horrendous all season.
But getting upset about some writer's prediction, when it's his job to say provocative and speculative things, and when it's not a totally crazy position, is silly.
Where the heck did you come from? And are there any more like you?
The Curse
9/4/18 - 10/27/04
Don't act like you've been there before. Act like you can't wait to go back.
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