Why the fascination with Reed?

[Huktonfonix]

I've read all the threads and articles clamoring for a Pavano/Reed swap, but I honestly can't see why we want Reed? Admittedly, I don't watch many west coast games. What I've gathered from people here is that he's a spectacular defender, and of course he's young and cheap.

ESPN's scouting report Link confuses the heck out of me, because none of it matches anything I know about him. According to them, he hits for great power, but his defense is questionable? I don't put a lot of stock in ESPN, so if anyone has a better report on him I'd love to read it.

His stats make me wary though. From what I can see he doesn't hit for power, doesn't hit for average, and doesn't get on base. In fact, his offensive production is almost identical to Crosby's. His numbers over the course of 18 games in 2004 look great, however. Does anyone have his minor league numbers? Did he hit well there?

I'm not against the guy, just uninformed. Please enlighten me. Why do we want Reed?

[goin for 27]

By Zone Rating, he was the best CF in the league. Pretty sure his UZR is top three as well. He is a VERY strong Centerfielder. He is a bit weak at the plate, actually with little pop, and a lower OBP.

Still, Crosby is the current option today, and he is not in the same league as Reed.

Their numbers are not similar.

Last 2 seasons.

Reed - .269 .338 .364
Crosby .221 .253 .301

The Red Sox are also interested in Reed, in case Damon gets too expensive. If they get them both, they have a great 4th OF'er.

I was definitely disappointed that the Yanks did not do the reported Pavano/Reed deal.

[Huktonfonix]

According to espn, they both posted Womackian mid-600's OPS's last season. I'd say their offense is similarly bad.

[Yankees1962]

I've read all the threads and articles clamoring for a Pavano/Reed swap, but I honestly can't see why we want Reed? Admittedly, I don't watch many west coast games. What I've gathered from people here is that he's a spectacular defender, and of course he's young and cheap.

ESPN's scouting report Link confuses the heck out of me, because none of it matches anything I know about him. According to them, he hits for great power, but his defense is questionable? I don't put a lot of stock in ESPN, so if anyone has a better report on him I'd love to read it.

His stats make me wary though. From what I can see he doesn't hit for power, doesn't hit for average, and doesn't get on base. In fact, his offensive production is almost identical to Crosby's. His numbers over the course of 18 games in 2004 look great, however. Does anyone have his minor league numbers? Did he hit well there?

I'm not against the guy, just uninformed. Please enlighten me. Why do we want Reed?

Those are my questions too. A lot of us are placing blame on why Cashman doesn't pull the trigger on that reported Pavano trade, but perhaps somebody (Yankee scouts) are telling him that Reed's not good enough to justify trading Pavano for him. Is he just a defensive CF without any offensive abilities? He has some good minor league stats, but that doesn't necessarily mean he can translate those numbers in the ML. His foot speed doesn't appear to be anything to write home about.

I want to hear more about him from those that think he's good enough to trade your #3 starter for.

[rob in boston]

According to espn, they both posted Womackian mid-600's OPS's last season. I'd say their offense is similarly bad.

In the Boston Globe today it say sthe sox have let it be know to the mariners they will trade clement for Reed.

[Yanks Lifer]

In the Boston Globe today it say sthe sox have let it be know to the mariners they will trade clement for Reed.

IMO, the Sox won't do this until and unless they are certain Damon won't re-sign. But, floating this rumor does 2 things:
1. Gets Damon thinking he may have to step up his decision process.
2. Drives up the price of Reed if the Yanks are interested.

[Huktonfonix]

Also lowers the price on Damon.

[MTYankee23]

Those are my questions too. A lot of us are placing blame on why Cashman doesn't pull the trigger on that reported Pavano trade, but perhaps somebody (Yankee scouts) are telling him that Reed's not good enough to justify trading Pavano for him. Is he just a defensive CF without any offensive abilities? He has some good minor league stats, but that doesn't necessarily mean he can translate those numbers in the ML. His foot speed doesn't appear to be anything to write home about.

I want to hear more about him from those that think he's good enough to trade your #3 starter for.

You mean #5 starter at #2 starter salary? Reed put up excellent offensive numbers in the minors, so his lack of success last year is puzzling at the plate.

[NYDCYankee]

I want to hear more about him from those that think he's good enough to trade your #3 starter for.

Is that what he was last year? I think you have to play earn a number like that.

[goin for 27]

According to espn, they both posted Womackian mid-600's OPS's last season. I'd say their offense is similarly bad.

Except that Reed played the bulk of the season with an injured wrist, and it was his rookie year. (he had a cup of coffee at the end of 2003)

Crosby is 30 years old, and can't hold Reed's jock in CF.

Jeremy Reed has been reported to be healthy, and his minor league numbers at the plate were great. He is very undervalued in my opinion.

Just the fact that there is a Clement/Reed deal as potential is telling. The Yanks certainly are not getting a decent offer for Bubba, that's for sure.

[Martini6196]

"As a possible contingency plan if they lose Johnny Damon, the Red Sox have discussed a deal with the Mariners that would involve Matt Clement going to Seattle and center fielder Jeremy Reed coming to Boston, according to a source with direct knowledge of the discussions."

Just thought I'd post this article. Here's the link:

http://www.boston.com/sports/basebal...ers_discussed/

[Fabien Brandy]

Would the Yankees be better off with Reed and Mateo for Pavano or with Damon in CF and Pavano or whatever else they can get for Pavano?

Maybe I'm crazy, but if Boston trades Clement for Reed then they weaken both their offense and pitching, while getting a slight upgrade defensively in CF.

Does anyone know if Reed's defensive stats are helped by Safeco in that he can get to more balls and thus boost his numbers? For a guy to have one great defensive season when the reports on his defense were otherwise mixed, I'm not sure you can rely on Reed being an elite defender going forward.

[surge511]

As much money as Pavano is for the next 3 years, I want to see him in 2006. He has a lot of potential, and put it all together for one year. If (which seems like a huge IF) he can stay healthy, I think he will make us happy we didn't trade him.

[Huktonfonix]

Except that Reed played the bulk of the season with an injured wrist

That's the sort of info I'm looking for. Anyone got his minor league numbers?

[MTYankee23]

As much money as Pavano is for the next 3 years, I want to see him in 2006. He has a lot of potential, and put it all together for one year. If (which seems like a huge IF) he can stay healthy, I think he will make us happy we didn't trade him.

What makes you think this? Where is this potential? One great season can more often than not indicate luck when peripheral stats show an average pitcher.

I think we run a greater risk of having him pitch poorly again this season, but this time without the fallback that he was battling an injury.

[Yankees1962]

You mean #5 starter at #2 starter salary? Reed put up excellent offensive numbers in the minors, so his lack of success last year is puzzling at the plate.

No, I meant what I stated.

[MTYankee23]

No, I meant what I stated.

Interesting, because in his first year, he pitched like our #6. If he's going to earn 10 Million a year, he better have his career year every year, but like I've pointed out on here over and over again, that was in all likelihood his career year, and we paid him for it.

[rhodehead]

Jeremy Reed's Recent minor league numbers:

2003 (Age 22) AA - 66 g, 51 runs, 99 hits, 17 2b, 7 HR, 43 RBI, 18 SB (13 CS), .409/.474/.591

2004 (Age 23) AAA (CHW) - 73 g, 44 runs, 76 hits, 14 2b, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 12 SB (7 CS), .275/.357/.420 He was dealt to Seattle in the Freddy Garcia trade

2004 AAA (SEA) - 61 games, 40 runs, 71 hits, 10 2b, 5 HR, 36 RBI, 13 SB (2 CS), .305/.366/.455

As he improves, I think he will hit for average with a pretty good OBP, he should be capable of stealing 15+ bases and 10 HR, while providing gold glove caliber defense in CF. He is not going to be a middle of the order bat, but should score a bunch of runs in a good lineup...

[Irabu's Son]

Jeremy Reed's Recent minor league numbers:

2003 (Age 22) AA - 66 g, 51 runs, 99 hits, 17 2b, 7 HR, 43 RBI, 18 SB (13 CS), .409/.474/.591

2004 (Age 23) AAA (CHW) - 73 g, 44 runs, 76 hits, 14 2b, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 12 SB (7 CS), .275/.357/.420 He was dealt to Seattle in the Freddy Garcia trade

2004 AAA (SEA) - 61 games, 40 runs, 71 hits, 10 2b, 5 HR, 36 RBI, 13 SB (2 CS), .305/.366/.455

As he improves, I think he will hit for average with a pretty good OBP, he should be capable of stealing 15+ bases and 10 HR, while providing gold glove caliber defense in CF. He is not going to be a middle of the order bat, but should score a bunch of runs in a good lineup...

I was just about to post this exact same thing. .254 isn't bad for a rookie season... I think he'll be totally fine at the plate.

[jcan411]

I was just about to post this exact same thing. .254 isn't bad for a rookie season... I think he'll be totally fine at the plate.

As I just posted in the other thread, Reed's injury was a wrist injury last year. He might be labeled by the Mariners as healthy, but why would they trade him if he has so much potential?

Wrist injuries can be career threatening. not in the vein of having to sit out for the rest of your career, but not beeing able to be even close to your normal projection (which was his case) for the rest of your career. Look at nomar (although there are many others). the wrist injury can drastically alter your ability to swing in your normal mechanics, and can weaken the swing to hurt bat speed.

I have afeeling that is the case with Reed. It makes no sense to trde him for Clement or Pavano. Both are reclamation projects that make a ton of money and that are in the beginning of back loaded contracts. I think the Mariners realize that they need to get something for Reed now before he sucks for another season and has absolutely NO value whatsoever. It just does not add up....

[Huktonfonix]

Interesting theory. I remember Nomar's average plummeting after his first wrist injury. He's clearly never been the same hitter that Ted Williams once predicted would bat .400. I always assumed that the wrist injuries Nick Johnson had suffered were a big reason the yankees were willing to trade such a promising hitter. Maybe that explains Cashman backing off on Reed?

[I Love Wang]

That's the sort of info I'm looking for. Anyone got his minor league numbers?

I know they've already been posted, but, in the future, here's a great site for career major league, minor league and college stats.

[wileedog]

I have afeeling that is the case with Reed. It makes no sense to trde him for Clement or Pavano. Both are reclamation projects that make a ton of money and that are in the beginning of back loaded contracts. I think the Mariners realize that they need to get something for Reed now before he sucks for another season and has absolutely NO value whatsoever. It just does not add up....

This scenario makes the most sense to me of everything I've read on Reed. I can't understand why the Mariners would unload a starting caliber CF who is 24, makes $300,000 and is supposedly GG quality in the field for guys like Pavano or Clement.

Particularly in this CF-starved market.

[I Love Wang]

This scenario makes the most sense to me of everything I've read on Reed. I can't understand why the Mariners would unload a starting caliber CF who is 24, makes $300,000 and is supposedly GG quality in the field for guys like Pavano or Clement.

Particularly in this CF-starved market.

The market isn't nearly as CF starved as it is SP starved. Not when Jarrod Washburn and Jeff Weaver can ask for 40+ million dollar deals.

[flymick24]

his defense is superb, and i predict that he will eventually learn to hit for average, if his minor league numbers are any proof to that. the only thing that concerns me is his lack of pop, but again, that cold come with time and as his body begins to fill out.

[wileedog]

The market isn't nearly as CF starved as it is SP starved. Not when Jarrod Washburn and Jeff Weaver can ask for 40+ million dollar deals.

Pavano for $30M certainly isn't that big of a "bargain" comparatively though. (OK, maybe compared to Weaver it is).

I'm not up to speed on their farm system. Do they even have anyone else besides Ichiro that could be moved into CF?

[jcan411]

The market isn't nearly as CF starved as it is SP starved. Not when Jarrod Washburn and Jeff Weaver can ask for 40+ million dollar deals.

But we are not even talking about Washburn or Weaver. Both are healthy. clement and Pavano have a ton of question marks and already are paid at/around 10 mil.

This just makes no sense for the mariners. I really have the feeling it is the wrist and the mariners know the more time they waste the less Reed will have value. It just makes no sense otherwise...

[Fabien Brandy]

I'm not up to speed on their farm system. Do they even have anyone else besides Ichiro that could be moved into CF?

They have Choo and also Snelling coming back later in the season. But no perfect fits that Reed is 'blocking'.

[I Love Wang]

Pavano for $30M certainly isn't that big of a "bargain" comparatively though. (OK, maybe compared to Weaver it is).

Pavano for 3/21 is a heck of a bargain, though. Keep in mind, Matt Morris TURNED DOWN an offer of 3/25 from Texas. I'll say that again, just so we're clear. Matt Morris, with an ERA well over 4 in the last two years in the NL Central, who has seen his k/9 drop from 7.7 to 7.32 to 6.27 to 5.84 to 5.47 last year (though he can grow a bad-ass beard), was offered a deal for 3 years and 25 million dollars (American), and said "No. I can do better than that with the Giants." And why? Because he throws a good number of innings. Mediocre innings eaters are getting big contracts. Thats terrifying to me. Pavano has a lot of trade value.

[jcan411]

Pavano for 3/21 is a heck of a bargain, though. Keep in mind, Matt Morris TURNED DOWN an offer of 3/25 from Texas. I'll say that again, just so we're clear. Matt Morris, with an ERA well over 4 in the last two years in the NL Central, who has seen his k/9 drop from 7.7 to 7.32 to 6.27 to 5.84 to 5.47 last year (though he can grow a bad-ass beard), was offered a deal for 3 years and 25 million dollars (American), and said "No. I can do better than that with the Giants." And why? Because he throws a good number of innings. Mediocre innings eaters are getting big contracts. Thats terrifying to me. Pavano has a lot of trade value.

Yeha Pavano was a real inings eater last year. Morris is much more valueable than Pavano right now. Pavano's only been over 200 innings twice. He's almost 30 and was hurt most of last year, and even when he did pitch he was not very effective. Plus, he makes a ton of money. He's no value....

[New Murderer's Row]

reed is exactly what the yankees need:
a cheap, young CF with good defense. and i think there's something to be said for offensive potential when a player hits .409 in AA.
reed was originally traded for freddy garcia, who is about as good, in my opinion, as carl pavano. i don't know why the mariners would essentially flip-flop and get rid of reed, but they need SP desperately and pavano is cheaper than FAs this year will come.
if the red sox acquire reed it will piss me off more than the beckett deal.

[jcan411]

reed is exactly what the yankees need:
a cheap, young CF with good defense. and i think there's something to be said for offensive potential when a player hits .409 in AA.
reed was originally traded for freddy garcia, who is about as good, in my opinion, as carl pavano. i don't know why the mariners would essentially flip-flop and get rid of reed, but they need SP desperately and pavano is cheaper than FAs this year will come.
if the red sox acquire reed it will piss me off more than the beckett deal.

As I said, you can't look at his minors numbers becuase it was before his wrist injury. He will not project the same...

[MTYankee23]

reed is exactly what the yankees need:
a cheap, young CF with good defense. and i think there's something to be said for offensive potential when a player hits .409 in AA.
reed was originally traded for freddy garcia, who is about as good, in my opinion, as carl pavano. i don't know why the mariners would essentially flip-flop and get rid of reed, but they need SP desperately and pavano is cheaper than FAs this year will come.
if the red sox acquire reed it will piss me off more than the beckett deal.

How dare you insult "the Rock" by comparing him to Carl Pavano. You cannot even compare these two pitchers.

[Yankees1962]

Yeha Pavano was a real inings eater last year. Morris is much more valueable than Pavano right now. Pavano's only been over 200 innings twice. He's almost 30 and was hurt most of last year, and even when he did pitch he was not very effective. Plus, he makes a ton of money. He's no value....

Hmmm, Pavano has no trade value so the different baseball writers from NYC to Seattle are just making those proposed trades up.

[wileedog]

Mediocre innings eaters are getting big contracts. Thats terrifying to me. Pavano has a lot of trade value.

A) I hardly qualify Pavano as an "innings eater", considering he's made it to 200 just twice in his career.

B) Pavano managed NOT to have an ERA over 4 just twice in all those years.

I'd take Morris in a heartbeat over Pavano right now, especially if it doesn't cost me my starting CFer.

[jcan411]

Hmmm, Pavano has no trade value so the different baseball writers from NYC to Seattle are just making those proposed trades up.

No, they are not making it up, but I think the value we are getting back is very low as well due to Reed's wrist injury...

[I Love Wang]

A) I hardly qualify Pavano as an "innings eater", considering he's made it to 200 just twice in his career.

B) Pavano managed NOT to have an ERA over 4 just twice in all those years.

I'd take Morris in a heartbeat over Pavano right now, especially if it doesn't cost me my starting CFer.

The innings eater comment was obviously referring to Morris, not Pavano. The Yankees have the ability to make Pavano's deal 3/21. Morris will require MORE than 3/25, and is likely off the market anyway.

[wileedog]

Hmmm, Pavano has no trade value so the different baseball writers from NYC to Seattle are just making those proposed trades up.

The trade offer from Seattle might be completely true.

But you'll notice the M's are talking to two teams about pitchers whose contracts their respective teams would probably like to dump.

Something to think about.

[I Love Wang]

The trade offer from Seattle might be completely true.

But you'll notice the M's are talking to two teams about pitchers whose contracts their respective teams would probably like to dump.

Something to think about.

The chance that Pavano's entire deal is moved is minute. The chance that Clement's entire deal is moved is nonexistant. And, keep in mind, the Yankees have Pavano for 3/30, and that doesn't go as far as it used to. Weaver is probably going to get more than that, and I'd rather have Pavano than Weaver.

[goin for 27]

As I said, you can't look at his minors numbers becuase it was before his wrist injury. He will not project the same...

Actually, he had surgery, which was deemed 100% successful. I am shore that Cashman and Co. would have access to all records, and he would have to pass a physical.

There are many many MLB players who have recovered from a wrist injury.

Who knows, you could be right, or he could be fine. If fine, he would be an outstanding acquisition. (Unless of course the Red Sox get him )

[Yankees1962]

The trade offer from Seattle might be completely true.

But you'll notice the M's are talking to two teams about pitchers whose contracts their respective teams would probably like to dump.

Something to think about.

However, until a trade is made, none of us knows what the real value of either pitcher is in today's market.

[wileedog]

The innings eater comment was obviously referring to Morris, not Pavano. The Yankees have the ability to make Pavano's deal 3/21. Morris will require MORE than 3/25, and is likely off the market anyway.

He is off the market, but the point is while the M's might save a few bucks getting Pavano and praying they get the one 1 out of 3 seasons he's actually healthy, they also lose a 24 year old CFer making $300,000 with decent numbers in the minors and great defense, which is a premium need in Safeco.

Do you really think they want to put themselves in the very position we are in at CF? For Carl Pavano?

[wileedog]

However, until a trade is made, none of us knows what the real value of either pitcher is in today's market.

Absolutely true.

We're all just speculating here.

[Yankees1962]

The chance that Pavano's entire deal is moved is minute. The chance that Clement's entire deal is moved is nonexistant. And, keep in mind, the Yankees have Pavano for 3/30, and that doesn't go as far as it used to. Weaver is probably going to get more than that, and I'd rather have Pavano than Weaver.

It might not appear so to many yet, but the sudden inflated free agent market, in time could play to the Yankees advantage. However, the Yankees need to continue to foster their farm system, but make good decisions in relation to trades and free agent signings.

[I Love Wang]

He is off the market, but the point is while the M's might save a few bucks getting Pavano and praying they get the one 1 out of 3 seasons he's actually healthy, they also lose a 24 year old CFer making $300,000 with decent numbers in the minors and great defense, which is a premium need in Safeco.

Do you really think they want to put themselves in the very position we are in at CF? For Carl Pavano?

The Mariners wouldn't be relying on Bubba Crosby to suddenly learn how to hit. They have the option of moving Ichiro! to CF, and getting corner OFer to replace him, which is much easier. They also have a number of adequate to decent minor league options.

[jcan411]

Actually, he had surgery, which was deemed 100% successful. I am shore that Cashman and Co. would have access to all records, and he would have to pass a physical.

There are many many MLB players who have recovered from a wrist injury.

Who knows, you could be right, or he could be fine. If fine, he would be an outstanding acquisition. (Unless of course the Red Sox get him )

His wsirt might be fine after surgery, but I have read that wrist injuries are the most trciky injury for someone to get back to form from becuiase they involve so much motion and are so critical to bat swing/speed. That is my concern....

Some recover, but few are the same, and he wasn't that great to begin with

[wileedog]

The Mariners wouldn't be relying on Bubba Crosby to suddenly learn how to hit. They have the option of moving Ichiro! to CF, and getting corner OFer to replace him, which is much easier. They also have a number of adequate to decent minor league options.

If they do have someone in the minors with similar production and upside as Reed then I agree with you. Like I said I'm not real familiar with their farm system.

If not they are just eating up their savings on Pavano to sign a probably mediocre corner OFer. Seems like a pretty lateral move to me at best, which could support jcan's theory that they would like to deal Reed while he has value.

[I Love Wang]

If they do have someone in the minors with similar production and upside as Reed then I agree with you. Like I said I'm not real familiar with their farm system.

If not they are just eating up their savings on Pavano to sign a probably mediocre corner OFer. Seems like a pretty lateral move to me at best, which could support jcan's theory that they would like to deal Reed while he has value.

No, they're offering Reed because he's they're only good trade chip. They have a number of decent looking OFers in their system, and, as evidenced by last offseason, they really LIKE Pavano.

[RhodeyYankee2638]

No, they're offering Reed because he's they're only good trade chip. They have a number of decent looking OFers in their system, and, as evidenced by last offseason, they really LIKE Pavano.

We will take Felix Hernandez if they dont want him either

[wileedog]

No, they're offering Reed because he's they're only good trade chip.

But they don't have to trade him if they don't want to. The aforementioned Morris went to the Giants for 3/27. Even assuming the Yanks send cash with Pavano, they really wouldn't be saving all that much money.

They have a number of decent looking OFers in their system, and, as evidenced by last offseason, they really LIKE Pavano.

Well, there's no accounting for taste I suppose....