The Panic Button

[scull567]

Nonsense. He's been a 3.50-3.70 type pitching in the NL with half of his games at Pro Player. Moving to Fenway in the AL, I'm thinking more along the lines of 4.25-4.50.

ZiPS projects a 3.88 for Beckett in Fenway Park.

[Sam18]

ZiPS projects a 3.88 for Beckett in Fenway Park.

With about 170 IP .

[I Love Wang]

ZiPS projects a 3.88 for Beckett in Fenway Park.

Great. I Love Wang predicts a 4.25-4.50 ERA for Beckett pitching in Fenway.

[StaceyRosie]

Great. I Love Wang predicts a 4.25-4.50 ERA for Beckett pitching in Fenway.

[scull567]

Great. I Love Wang predicts a 4.25-4.50 ERA for Beckett pitching in Fenway.

Cool. Could you explain your projection system to me? Or is it just Beckett....red sox.....grrr.....he'll suck.

[Sam18]

Cool. Could you explain your projection system to me? Or is it just Beckett....red sox.....grrr.....he'll suck.

I think its more like road ERA 4.30 in NL, moving to Fenway and the AL east. Hahahahahahah.

[Little Big Sheff]

Josh Beckett has a history of not pitching well away from home. Most statisticians project him as a 3.50-3.70 ERA #2 guy in the rotation.

I see him over 4.00

[Little Big Sheff]

Cool. Could you explain your projection system to me? Or is it just Beckett....red sox.....grrr.....he'll suck.

Let's start with :

2.47 / 4.31 Home away splits in 2005
2.87 / 4.10 Home away splits for 2002-2004

[I Love Wang]

Cool. Could you explain your projection system to me? Or is it just Beckett....red sox.....grrr.....he'll suck.

He's never had an ERA under 4 outside of pro player, and he's not going to be pitching there anymore. Instead, he's going to be pitching in a park that dramatically INcreases run production, and, not to mention, he's going from a league wher pitchers hit to a league where Travis Hafner hits, instead. Is that good enough, or do you have any more snotty comments to make?

Why don't you take a look at the Zips projections in the past couple years of some other pitchers that changed leagues, like Javier Vazquez and Randy Johnson?

[scull567]

Let's start with :

2.47 / 4.31 Home away splits in 2005
2.87 / 4.10 Home away splits for 2002-2004

Home career FIP: 3.33
Road career FIP: 3.64

Not that big of a deal.

[I Love Wang]

Home career FIP: 3.33
Road career FIP: 3.64

Not that big of a deal.

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

[George Steinbrenner]

Are you kidding? There's no way that Beckett is as good as Santana, Peavy, Oswalt, Zambrano, Dontrelle, Lackey, or Harden. He's certainly not an "absolute ace."

Theres a reason I said ARGUABLY. You could make a case that Santanna and Oswalt are a bit better. But he's better definitely better than Lackey and he has just as nasty stuff as the rest of those guys. He has dominant shutdown ACE potential. This aint a no "NL" pitcher this guy has a consistent 95+ fastball, deadly power sinker AND a good curveball. Ask any big league scout and theyll tell you hes a young ace in the making, with potential (if healthy and no blisters) to be a dominant starter. I didnt say lets get Delgado in particular (too late now anyway) Im just throwing some names out there. The important part is getting a top tier setup man, hopefully 2, out of the group of Ryan, Wagner, Gordon, Wickman (in order of preference)

[I Love Wang]

Theres a reason I said ARGUABLY. You could make a case that Santanna and Oswalt are a bit better. But he's better definitely better than Lackey and he has just as nasty stuff as the rest of those guys. He has dominant shutdown ACE potential. This aint a no "NL" pitcher this guy has a consistent 95+ fastball, deadly power sinker AND a good curveball. Ask any big league scout and theyll tell you hes a young ace in the making, with potential (if healthy and no blisters) to be a dominant starter. I didnt say lets get Delgado in particular (too late now anyway) Im just throwing some names out there. The important part is getting a top tier setup man, hopefully 2, out of the group of Ryan, Wagner, Gordon, Wickman (in order of preference)

Your argument sucks. Lackey, along with every other guy I posted, has been far more productive than Beckett. If its arguable, lets hear an argument for how he's better than Johan Santana?

[George Steinbrenner]

don't lie beckett has incredible stuff...coming out of texas they said he had better stuff than kerry wood and u know when beckett is on..he is great..his only concern is injury and it's a big one but don't treat the man like he's not part of the elite.

thank you. WHEN HEALTHY (meaning no finger blisters) he is deadly scary and we should at least be concerned that Boston has acquired itself a potential shutdown ace for years to come.

[scull567]

He's never had an ERA under 4 outside of pro player, and he's not going to be pitching there anymore. Instead, he's going to be pitching in a park that dramatically INcreases run production, and, not to mention, he's going from a league wher pitchers hit to a league where Travis Hafner hits, instead. Is that good enough, or do you have any more snotty comments to make?

Why don't you take a look at the Zips projections in the past couple years of some other pitchers that changed leagues, like Javier Vazquez and Randy Johnson?

I seee now. The I Love Wang projection system is much more accurate than zips. Great stuff.

[George Steinbrenner]

So they got Josh Beckett. Big deal. They still have to deal with many other issues. Let Beckett pitch a bit in the AL and we'll see what happens--could be good, could be Pavano (who was 18-8 in 2004 for the now Flying Out of Miami Fish). Isn't he a free agent in a year or so when he does his five years?

Lowell--also who knows? Could be Brosious replay for the Sox.

Now if the Sox toss Manny and somehow get Delgado, then they have someone to protect Ortiz again, and then we'll see.

My guess, with Giles being an idiot about not talking to Torre et al, I suspect that the Y's are looking hard at Damon (and holding their collective noses). Boras will not pull another Beltran on them--this will get done, one way or another, before the end of the year. And if it doesn't--Bubba can play defense, and we do not really need the extra bat with this lineup.

BJ Ryan would be a fool not to take the Y's offer of closer money ($9 million or so per year), a 4 year contract, and 2 years to learn everything Mariano knows before having the chance (and the stage) to become another great closer in his image. Isn't that what Mo did with Wettland? If he doesn't take that offer (which should be every potential closer's dream) he doesn't have the makeup to make it in NY anyway.

Gordon will close, allright, for Detroit or some other low end club desperate enough to give a 38 year old with a history of a dead arm among other health issues a 3 year contract. Or he will wisen up and finish his career here, among players, fans, and coaches that know him well and appreciate him. If he is smart enough, maybe a performace based 3rd year option could be worked out.

Don't underestimate Cashman or overestimate Luccino. ARod and Chacon were good unexpected moves. Give it some time.

To be honest, what they have now (with the exception of 1-2 BP arms) isn't too bad.

I agree with everything you said (especially about Ryan) but Im in the Beckett camp and Im telling you hes a star. He hasnt put together a Cy Young season yet, but being around a guy like Schilling and pitching in a high stress, postseason like environment (where we've seen him thrive firsthand) makes me nervous. As much as I love Wang and Chacon, Beckett is on a higher level than them.

[George Steinbrenner]

Your argument sucks. Lackey, along with every other guy I posted, has been far more productive than Beckett. If its arguable, lets hear an argument for how he's better than Johan Santana?

you and your argument suck and i remember why I stopped coming to this board in the first place. All you peons acting like you know something about baseball because you bought a big book on statistics and all sorts of wacky formulas to learn who the best players are. I dont have the energy to get into a big project here. I said yes Santana and Oswalt are better than Beckett. And Im also telling you that all those guys you mentioned are in the same class as Beckett as far as raw stuff and potential to DOMINATE. And this potential has only been stopped by injury. Its not like he hasnt proven himself and CARRIED a team on his back all the way to a championship while still under the age of 25. Guys as talented as Beckett are few and far between, and whether or not you think so is irrelevant.

Dont act like an expert on the game because chances are I was playing and watching the Yanks while you were crappin in your Pampers.

[Little Big Sheff]

Dont act like an expert on the game because chances are I was playing and watching the Yanks while you were crappin in your Pampers.

Brilliant.

you and your argument suck and i remember why I stopped coming to this board in the first place.

You and me both.

[Sam18]

you and your argument suck and i remember why I stopped coming to this board in the first place. All you peons acting like you know something about baseball because you bought a big book on statistics and all sorts of wacky formulas to learn who the best players are. I dont have the energy to get into a big project here. I said yes Santana and Oswalt are better than Beckett. And Im also telling you that all those guys you mentioned are in the same class as Beckett as far as raw stuff and potential to DOMINATE. And this potential has only been stopped by injury. Its not like he hasnt proven himself and CARRIED a team on his back all the way to a championship while still under the age of 25. Guys as talented as Beckett are few and far between, and whether or not you think so is irrelevant.

Dont act like an expert on the game because chances are I was playing and watching the Yanks while you were crappin in your Pampers.

You can't defend Beckett so you go ahead and insult ILW. Good job!