No, you're wrong. The key correlation is between payroll and playoff appearances, because that's what determines who can win the World Series. As you've said yourself, the playoffs are a crapshoot, therefore getting there is the key metric.Originally Posted by bobby jr
And the average payroll rank of teams who made the playoffs over the last 10 years? In the National League, it's 11th. And in the American League, including that awful, unbalancing AL East? It's 11th.
In other words, the average payroll rank of teams who made the playoffs over the last decade is slightly above average. When you consider that some of the low-payroll teams like BAL, PIT and KC aren't even trying to win, that's a LOT of competitive balance.
I'm sorry, that was unfair. When you consider that some of the low-payroll teams like PIT and KC aren't even trying to win, and some of the medium-payroll teams like BAL are laughably bad at it . . .
You said there was less than a 1 in 100 chance, and they did it within 2 years of your prediction. They could also do it again this year. Doesn't that suggest that your prediction was pretty awful? And doesn't that suggest that you, in common with Peter Angelos, don't understand the business of baseball?As for the Rays unseating the Yankees, I didn't say there was a 0% chance.
Obviously your predictions are pretty bad, so I'll ignore that one. Eventually they'll get bad, sure, but every team eventually gets bad. That's like saying that 'at some point I'll roll double 1s on a pair of dice'. Well, eventually, sure.Obviously the Rays are doing better than I expected, but they will soon lose free agents, will not have high draft picks, and gravitate towards the basement again.
So you only cite the exception, and I'm citing the whole of MLB. Which says that the average payroll rank of playoff teams this decade is 11th, slightly above average.I cite the Yankees because they are by far the highest payroll team and they have had a good record as a result.
Of 40 playoff teams in the American League over the past decade, 11 have been from the bottom third of payroll rankings. 14 out of 40 have been in the bottom half of payroll rankings.
Does that sound like competitive imbalance to you?
Be seeing you,