What is the best lineup construction?

[JeffWeaverFan]

In Inside the Lines a lot of us are arguing about the lineup and I wonder what lineup produces the most runs. One would think it would be fairly simple to find out if you had some sort of computer program and I'm sure it has been done.

Anyways, it seems to me that baseball managers and baseball people think the best lineup has a speedster who gets on base in the 1 spot, a guy that doesn't ground into DP's, hits for a good avergage, and can do the little things in the 2 spot, your best hitter in the 3 spot, SLG guys in the 4 and 5 spots and then your worse hitters in the 6-9 spots.

But, is this right?

I say definitely not. I want both my 1 and 2 hitters to be high OBP guys. I could care less about their speed. And then have your best hitters in the 3-4-5 spots.

Then I thought about something else. Would you score more or less runs if you literally just started off with your best hitters. For example, if the Yankee lineup was something along the lines of:
Giambi
A-Rod
Sheff
Matsui
Jeter
Cano
Posada
Bernie
Womack/Crosby/Thompson

Totally unconventional and never would happen, but would the Yankees score more runs like this? They would certainly get more AB's because their best OBP guys are right at the top of the order, so instead of making outs, they are getting on base. But, then you have to take into account the fact that your SLG guys are coming to the plate without as many people on base - at least in the first inning. You also have your best hitters getting more AB's. I don't know though. I do know that the Yankees do not score as many runs as they could with the lineup they have now.

So, I guess my question is what is correct? Have there been any studies done on this? What are your thoughts?

[Euclis]

Just looking at that lineup, you have to wonder how many runs you are losing by putting your worst hitters (Posada, Bernie, etc) in front of your best hitters (Giambi, Arod). There's something to be said for getting your best hitters the most ABs, but there will be a lot of solo home runs there. I agree with most of what you are saying though. I think lineups should look something like this:

1. highest obp, slg/speed unimportant
2. high obp, some power
3. Best hitter
4. Second best hitter, or most power left
5. most Power left
6. most power left
7. worst hitter in the lineup
8. second worst, speed a plus
9. good obp, speed a plus

It's tough to fit lineups into that, but here's what my yankee lineup would look like:

1. Jeter
2. Giambi
3. Arod
4. Sheffield
5. Matsui
6. Cano
7. womack/crosby/etc
8. Bernie
9. Posada

That lineup is top heavy, no matter how you slice it. You want the best hitters grouped together to keep rallies going.

[pedromartinezfan]

Obp1
Obp2
Obp3
Obp4
Obp5
Obp6
Obp7
Obp8
Obp9

[yankees2nyy]

euclis, i kinda like that lineup-but i would have to say cano is hitting better than posada even tho he swings at the 1st pitch everytime

[JeffWeaverFan]

Just looking at that lineup, you have to wonder how many runs you are losing by putting your worst hitters (Posada, Bernie, etc) in front of your best hitters (Giambi, Arod). There's something to be said for getting your best hitters the most ABs, but there will be a lot of solo home runs there. I agree with most of what you are saying though. I think lineups should look something like this:

1. highest obp, slg/speed unimportant
2. high obp, some power
3. Best hitter
4. Second best hitter, or most power left
5. most Power left
6. most power left
7. worst hitter in the lineup
8. second worst, speed a plus
9. good obp, speed a plus

It's tough to fit lineups into that, but here's what my yankee lineup would look like:

1. Jeter
2. Giambi
3. Arod
4. Sheffield
5. Matsui
6. Cano
7. womack/crosby/etc
8. Bernie
9. Posada

That lineup is top heavy, no matter how you slice it. You want the best hitters grouped together to keep rallies going.

Yes, I argued that the Yankees should go with a lineup like this also. My question though is it a good idea to have your worst hitter in the 7 spot, 2nd worse in the 8 spot, and 3rd worse in the 9 spot? You are going to lose AB's and runs by doing that, but you will also gain more RBI chances for the top of the order.

I guess that question also goes back to my completely unconventional lineup of just going with your best hitters right off the bat. Will the lack of RBI chances outweigh the fact that they are getting more AB's and your whole team is also consequently getting more AB's? Or vice versa?

You know, one would think that a manager would be very interested in this type of thing.

[PaulieIsAwesome]

I ran some numbers a couple of months ago, and discounted double plays and stolen bases. Looked at last year's lineup, messed around with construction, tried to find the optimal lineup. That lineup went:

Posada
Sheff
Matsui
A.Rod
Bernie
Jeter
Cairo
Clark
Sierra

That lineup, the optimal one, was only worth 3 runs more than the lineup the Yankees put on the field, with respect to Bill James' Runs Created formula, ignoring stolen bases. I didn't throw in a few steps, and only adjusted on the basis of how many plate appearances each player would have, so I am willing to say that absent DPs and SBs, optimal lineup construction could be worth up to 10 runs. Still, once DPs and SBs are factored back in, I expect that an optimal lineup is at most 5 runs better than a normal lineup. That matters, being about half a win, but not that much. As long as you don't do something like hit Cano first, you're fine.

So, I think pedromartinezfan is right, it's ranked by OBP, but it isn't that important.

[Euclis]

I guess that question also goes back to my completely unconventional lineup of just going with your best hitters right off the bat. Will the lack of RBI chances outweigh the fact that they are getting more AB's and your whole team is also consequently getting more AB's? Or vice versa?

That's a tough one to answer. It's easy to find out how many extra plate appearances one gets by moving up in the order...finding out how many plate appearances are lost by bad hitters is more difficult. Let's look at PAs for AL teams in 2004:

1. 770.5
2. 754.1 -16.4
3. 737.1 -17.0
4. 719.6 -17.5
5. 702.4 -17.2
6. 683.7 -18.7
7. 665.1 -18.6
8. 648.1 -17.0
9. 628.7 -19.4

So, dropping back one spot in the order would mean you would get 16.5-19.5 fewer plate appeances over the course of a season. Two things to think about: How many outs each spot makes, and how many run scoring opportunities each spot gets. I'll figure those out later tonight when I have more time.

[JeffWeaverFan]

I ran some numbers a couple of months ago, and discounted double plays and stolen bases. Looked at last year's lineup, messed around with construction, tried to find the optimal lineup. That lineup went:

Posada
Sheff
Matsui
A.Rod
Bernie
Jeter
Cairo
Clark
Sierra

That lineup, the optimal one, was only worth 3 runs more than the lineup the Yankees put on the field, with respect to Bill James' Runs Created formula, ignoring stolen bases. I didn't throw in a few steps, and only adjusted on the basis of how many plate appearances each player would have, so I am willing to say that absent DPs and SBs, optimal lineup construction could be worth up to 10 runs. Still, once DPs and SBs are factored back in, I expect that an optimal lineup is at most 5 runs better than a normal lineup. That matters, being about half a win, but not that much. As long as you don't do something like hit Cano first, you're fine.

So, I think pedromartinezfan is right, it's ranked by OBP, but it isn't that important.

Interesting, only a 5 run difference total? I would have thought it would be more.

[JeffWeaverFan]

That's a tough one to answer. It's easy to find out how many extra plate appearances one gets by moving up in the order...finding out how many plate appearances are lost by bad hitters is more difficult. Let's look at PAs for AL teams in 2004:

1. 770.5
2. 754.1 -16.4
3. 737.1 -17.0
4. 719.6 -17.5
5. 702.4 -17.2
6. 683.7 -18.7
7. 665.1 -18.6
8. 648.1 -17.0
9. 628.7 -19.4

So, dropping back one spot in the order would mean you would get 16.5-19.5 fewer plate appeances over the course of a season. Two things to think about: How many outs each spot makes, and how many run scoring opportunities each spot gets. I'll figure those out later tonight when I have more time.

Yeah, and that should really tell us what the best lineup is. Interesting stuff.

[stupidpunchline]

1. Jeter (.388/.456 + speed)
2. Giambi (.447/.547)
3. Rodriguez (.417/.593 + speed)
4. Sheffield (.396/.528 + .400 RISP BA)
5. Matsui (.360/.499)
6. Martinez (.325/.469)
7. Posada (.332/.412)
8. Cano (.306/.435)
9. Womack (.275/.271 + speed)

[Mean Linguine]

You want guys who can run in the first two spots (and, of course, you want them to be good OBP guys because you can't steal first base).
You want your best hitter to be guaranteed an at bat in the first inning, so put him in the third spot.
After that, it probably doesn't really matter as much as we think.
Jeter/Cano/ARod/Sheff/Matsui/Giambi/Posada/Bernie/Womack isn't perfect, but I can't think of one much better with those nine.
Jeter optimally would be a number 2 hitter.
Womack wouldn't be on the team.
I like Giambi at number 2 for his OBP, but he clogs up the basepaths -- guys would be running up his back.