Potential of Omir Santos?

[38Special]

http://www.nj.com/thunder/times/inde...8382255370.xml

-- Thunder catcher Omir Santos may not have the batting average potential of Navarro, who currently is hitting just .252 with 11 RBIs at Triple-A Las Vegas after a poor 2004, but there are scouts that insist that Santos is every bit the prospect Navarro was before being dealt to the Dodgers in the three-way exchange for the struggling Johnson.

and the write-up from BA's prospect book:

#29

While Dioner Navarro was struggling with his receiving and his hitting last year, Santos quietly established himself as the system's best defensive catcher. Santos, who often goes by the nickname Pito, also showed signs that he might hit enough to be at least a backup in the big leagues. His defense always has been his strong suit, and now it's better than ever. He's a quiet receiver with excellent footwork, which makes him a standout at blocking balls in the dirt. The quick glove-to-hand transfer on his throws and his slightly above-average arm allow him to consistently post 1.89-1.95 pop times to second base. Santos will have to keep hitting like he did in his second-half callup to high Class A to be a legitimate prospect. His swing is mechanical, though with more playing time he got into a groove and showed more offensive potential than the Yankees expected. They like how he leads a pithching staff, so if he hits enough he'll move up to Double-A. That also would give Navarro more motivation to avoid a repeat of 2004.

2005 @ AA: 261/.309/.365
2004 @ High A: .286/.341/.403

I don't think much of him offensively, but he has hit much better since he's become a regular. He doesnt walk enough, but he also doesnt strike out that much.

Navarro's #s so far in AAA (keeping in mind hes 3 years younger than Santos): .252/.377/.346

[Sam2448]

Great defense, great handling of pitchers, not enough offense to be a prospect or future big-league starter. He could be a nice backup though.

[Yankyfan]

I remember him from his SI days and he was a great guy and a crowd favorite.Good throwing arm with nice footwork.

[mbn007]

With the dearth of legitiment Catching prospects in our system (hopefully this years draft will solve that issue, although not for another 3-4 seasons), who is the top rated prospect we currently have?

My money is on Rojas in A ball. Irwin.

Comments?

[BomberBrian]

I don't think a catcher would rate in the top 30 prospects in our system.

[DaYanks4Life]

That is definately the biggest weakness of our system. I hope they address it with some Intl FA and next years draft.

[Mark19]

I get the feeling that Parrish will not pan out and Will Nieves will be our 3rd catcher for the next two seasons

[38Special]

I get the feeling that Parrish will not pan out and Will Nieves will be our 3rd catcher for the next two seasons

Parrish already hasn't panned out

[mbn007]

Parrish already hasn't panned out

A wasted #1. Really wasted, no matter how good his defensive abilities are. He just can't hit, period.

[38Special]

A wasted #1. Really wasted, no matter how good his defensive abilities are. He just can't hit, period.

That was a crap draft overall for all teams though.

[mbn007]

That was a crap draft overall for all teams though.

True, but it seems that we took the worst 1st rounder of all.

Ahh, that's now water under the bridge. Good thing Jorge has been solid all these years.

[Michaels07]

I remember him from his SI days and he was a great guy and a crowd favorite.Good throwing arm with nice footwork.

Short & Squatty.

[Michaels07]

I get the feeling that Parrish will not pan out and Will Nieves will be our 3rd catcher for the next two seasons

Yanks only carry two catchers.

[Yankyfan]

I think in the last years we added 10 catchers to our system.

[sugmasterflex]

I think in the last years we added 10 catchers to our system.

But none who would achieve "blue chip" status.

[Mark19]

Yanks only carry two catchers.

I know that, but each team usually has a 3rd string catcher sitting around AAA to fill-in in case of an injury. I think Parrish did that once last season when Jorge broke his nose.

[YankProspector]

Catchers are hard to find, so when you can get one, keep him. They are almost NEVER traded away. Most organizations don't have a top rated cather that can hit and be good defensively.

[Donnybaseball72]

Nieves is out of options next year. Flaherty is finished and can't hit anymore. How about making Nieves the #2 next year?

[Matsui55]

I think that regradless of whether the Yanks win the World Series, or are out of it by August, we are seeing the end of the Jorge Posada era. The troubles he has had with Johnson, his high K rates (though partially offset by the walks), and his general inability to control the running game are definiately emerging as problems.

Posada has always been a better hitter than catcher. It is doubtful the Yanks can move him to DH with Giambi around, and he flunked a run at 1B a few years back. Thus, as he is also one of the few guys without a no trade who still has value, he may be dealt this winter to fill other holes.

The FA market is strong at C, with at least Hernandez from SD (also was the long time C for the big 3 in Oakland) and Molina from Anaheim available. Both are VERY good defensive C, with Hernandez a better hitter, though neither is in Posada's class. However, both K significantly less, offer better defense and are several years younger. Posada is nearing the mid-30's, an age where C generally decline very rapidly.

If the choice were mine, I would go after Molina (who the Angels pitchers LOVE), trade Posada for a good 1B or a strong OF, plus a prospect, and call it an upgrade. Give Molina a 3 year deal, with an option for a 4th. Then, the Yanks can drop Flaherty and either go with Nieves, or pick up one of the defensive specialists on the market.

The reason I call it an upgrade is this: the defense at C (and like 1B if Posada nets one) will be upgraded dramatically. The C offense will have less power, but it would likely be offset by a new 1B who is more consistent than Tino (who outside of a great 2 weeks, has done little). The Yanks would also get younger faster at 2 key spots, while not giving up top prospects to get them.

Yes, the Yanks would lose a 1st round pick for signing Molina, but they may be able to recoup one for Gordon and possibly Bernie. Its a wash in the end.

[Stealthspy]

Catchers are hard to find, so when you can get one, keep him. They are almost NEVER traded away. Most organizations don't have a top rated cather that can hit and be good defensively.

*cough* Navarro *cough*...

But I guess you're right, we'll have to see how it pans out.

[surge511]

I think that regradless of whether the Yanks win the World Series, or are out of it by August, we are seeing the end of the Jorge Posada era. The troubles he has had with Johnson, his high K rates (though partially offset by the walks), and his general inability to control the running game are definiately emerging as problems.

Posada has always been a better hitter than catcher. It is doubtful the Yanks can move him to DH with Giambi around, and he flunked a run at 1B a few years back. Thus, as he is also one of the few guys without a no trade who still has value, he may be dealt this winter to fill other holes.

The FA market is strong at C, with at least Hernandez from SD (also was the long time C for the big 3 in Oakland) and Molina from Anaheim available. Both are VERY good defensive C, with Hernandez a better hitter, though neither is in Posada's class. However, both K significantly less, offer better defense and are several years younger. Posada is nearing the mid-30's, an age where C generally decline very rapidly.

If the choice were mine, I would go after Molina (who the Angels pitchers LOVE), trade Posada for a good 1B or a strong OF, plus a prospect, and call it an upgrade. Give Molina a 3 year deal, with an option for a 4th. Then, the Yanks can drop Flaherty and either go with Nieves, or pick up one of the defensive specialists on the market.

The reason I call it an upgrade is this: the defense at C (and like 1B if Posada nets one) will be upgraded dramatically. The C offense will have less power, but it would likely be offset by a new 1B who is more consistent than Tino (who outside of a great 2 weeks, has done little). The Yanks would also get younger faster at 2 key spots, while not giving up top prospects to get them.

Yes, the Yanks would lose a 1st round pick for signing Molina, but they may be able to recoup one for Gordon and possibly Bernie. Its a wash in the end.

I dont agree. I think Posada's bat is important towards the bottom of our lineup, and it would be a mistake to get rid of him. There is noone we can get, maybe Molina, but I haven't heard about him being available. Plus, I doubt a good 1B and a good prospect would be had for a 34 year old catcher. I think the Yanks would be better off with just keeping Posada and getting another catcher through the system soon so that Posada is still around to groom him.

[BomberBrian]

not gonna see a catcher come through the system while posada is still around because there aren't any.

[mbn007]

I dont agree. I think Posada's bat is important towards the bottom of our lineup, and it would be a mistake to get rid of him. There is noone we can get, maybe Molina, but I haven't heard about him being available. Plus, I doubt a good 1B and a good prospect would be had for a 34 year old catcher. I think the Yanks would be better off with just keeping Posada and getting another catcher through the system soon so that Posada is still around to groom him.

Actually, with his hitting abilities, Posada probably can be used to acquire a decent 1B type. Not a star or a slugger, but a Hattenberg type. Someone like Tino, defensively, but maybe a better hitter. A 1 year stopgap, until Duncan is ready to take over.

I would love Molina. He is as good as it gets defensively, and is reputed to call a very good game. I think a vet like Moose and Randy would love such a guy.

Jorge is OK calling a game, but it is alarming that he has difficulties with Randy. Jorge throws OK, but not at the top of all catchers. He does K a lot, but also walks a lot, and is still good for 20+ HRs a season.

[Michaels07]

Give Yogi some HGH and bring him back.

[ICEBERG18]

I dont agree. I think Posada's bat is important towards the bottom of our lineup, and it would be a mistake to get rid of him. There is noone we can get, maybe Molina, but I haven't heard about him being available. Plus, I doubt a good 1B and a good prospect would be had for a 34 year old catcher. I think the Yanks would be better off with just keeping Posada and getting another catcher through the system soon so that Posada is still around to groom him.

"Kenji Johjima"

Never mind.

Posada's contract calls for a $15 million signing bonus -- $1.5 million payable this year, $2 million in 2003, $3 million in 2004, $4 million in 2005 and $4.5 million in 2006.

Posada gets yearly salaries of $4 million in 2002, $5 million in 2003, $6 million in 2004, $8 million in 2005 and $9 million in 2006.

New York's 2007 option is at $12 million with a $4 million buyout, (and the salary would become guaranteed if Posada has a combined 330 appearances at catcher during the 2004, 2005 and 2006 seasons.) If the option is exercised, Posada would receive the buyout in 2008.

GEEEEZ.....(That 2007 year is going to be Guaranteed at the rate Posada is going.)

[Matsui55]

I dont agree. I think Posada's bat is important towards the bottom of our lineup, and it would be a mistake to get rid of him. There is noone we can get, maybe Molina, but I haven't heard about him being available. Plus, I doubt a good 1B and a good prospect would be had for a 34 year old catcher. I think the Yanks would be better off with just keeping Posada and getting another catcher through the system soon so that Posada is still around to groom him.

Molina is available because he's a FA this winter.

[Matsui55]

"Kenji Johjima"

Never mind.

Posada's contract calls for a $15 million signing bonus -- $1.5 million payable this year, $2 million in 2003, $3 million in 2004, $4 million in 2005 and $4.5 million in 2006.

Posada gets yearly salaries of $4 million in 2002, $5 million in 2003, $6 million in 2004, $8 million in 2005 and $9 million in 2006.

New York's 2007 option is at $12 million with a $4 million buyout, (and the salary would become guaranteed if Posada has a combined 330 appearances at catcher during the 2004, 2005 and 2006 seasons.) If the option is exercised, Posada would receive the buyout in 2008.

GEEEEZ.....(That 2007 year is going to be Guaranteed at the rate Posada is going.)

Yes, the Yanks would have to eat some of that- unless they took on a high salary or longer contract in return. There are a couple of 1B with similar salaries that come to mind- Konerko, Casey (though he doesn't have a lot of power), Klesko/Nevin.

On the other hand, other clubs who may want/need more bats, like the Cubs or Dodgers, could be a fit because they need offense anywhere they can get it, despite the fact that they are not likely to give up their 1B (Lee and Choi), but can give some prospects who could be used in another deal.

[Kulish29]

Nieves is out of options next year. Flaherty is finished and can't hit anymore. How about making Nieves the #2 next year?

Next year in ST the Yankees will likely have Nieves and a Vet dual it out for the #2 catcher spot.

[Kulish29]

Catchers are hard to find, so when you can get one, keep him. They are almost NEVER traded away. Most organizations don't have a top rated cather that can hit and be good defensively.

Which begs the question, do the Yankees go after a catcher in the draft next year?

[mbn007]

Which begs the question, do the Yankees go after a catcher in the draft next year?

They went after 4 this year. Let's see how things shake out.

[Matsui55]

They went after 4 this year. Let's see how things shake out.

They didn't draft a single C who projects to start in the bigs- I don't expect a single one of the college guys to get past AA. Matt Wallach is the most interesting D&F C, but he's a project.

While Santos and the 2 Rojas guys are very good defensively, they may not be able to hit enough to matter.

[mbn007]

They didn't draft a single C who projects to start in the bigs- I don't expect a single one of the college guys to get past AA. Matt Wallach is the most interesting D&F C, but he's a project.

While Santos and the 2 Rojas guys are very good defensively, they may not be able to hit enough to matter.

That's a very harsh statement to make on guys who have been a pro for 3 weeks. Let's see what shakes out after this season first.