How do his stats shape up when park adjusted defensive efficiency and the UZRs of the fielders behind him are taken into account?
How would he fare in Yankee stadium based on the same factors?
How do his stats shape up when park adjusted defensive efficiency and the UZRs of the fielders behind him are taken into account?
How would he fare in Yankee stadium based on the same factors?
what's disconcerting to me sabermetrically about Pavano is that his DP rate was 7.5 last year, as opposed to hovering around .5 for the rest of his career
Pavanos DIPS last year was 3.56, in 03 it was 3.79. Knowing that he actully had 2 good years makes the deal seem ok with me.
Unless we sign Beltran, our defense doesn't exactly make me think he could post a sub-4.00 ERA.
I'd like to take Jonny Damon to my barber, get him a nice flatop - Joe Giradi
If Pavano hovers around the 4.00 mark, I will be very pleased.Originally posted by bigteethkeith
Pavanos DIPS last year was 3.56, in 03 it was 3.79. Knowing that he actully had 2 good years makes the deal seem ok with me.
Unless we sign Beltran, our defense doesn't exactly make me think he could post a sub-4.00 ERA.
I want to make babies with Philip Hughes.
Don't hold your breath for that. He had a 3.56 DIPS ERA last season meaning that he was somewhat lucky with the balls that were put in play. So, take the 3.56 dERA and add at least .3 because of the DH. Then, add at least .1 because the AL East is more of a hitters division than the NL East. Add another .1 because he'll be moving from the Florida ball park to Yankee Stadium. Also, his component ERA - which is how many runs he should have given up based on the raw statistics - was 3.10, so add another .1 there. That gets us to a 4.16 ERA. Of course, there is absolutely no method to my madness so we shall see. ZIPS projection has him at 4.36. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...cussion/24937/Originally posted by reelbiggecko
If Pavano hovers around the 4.00 mark, I will be very pleased.
Signing one player is not going to create miracles defensively...the entire team has long been known for it's poor defensive capabilities.Originally posted by bigteethkeith
Pavanos DIPS last year was 3.56, in 03 it was 3.79. Knowing that he actully had 2 good years makes the deal seem ok with me.
Unless we sign Beltran, our defense doesn't exactly make me think he could post a sub-4.00 ERA.
Actually, in this particular instance, one player would make an enormous difference. The reason for this is because he'd be replacing Bernie, who is the worst center fielder in the game. Replacing Bernie's -44 UZR with Beltran's +2 makes the outfield defense undeniably much much much much better.Originally posted by CursetheReverse
Signing one player is not going to create miracles defensively...the entire team has long been known for it's poor defensive capabilities.
"Well, you know what, Trot? Even if ARod didn't do the workouts, he's still 10x the player you are, 20 if the pitcher is a lefty." - frowndog
Yes but if Pavano stays a more or less groundball pitcher (1.36 GO/AO) then Beltran's effect would be limited a bit... of course that brings the issue of having a good defensive 2B and 1B
\\Originally posted by SheffMVP11
Actually, in this particular instance, one player would make an enormous difference. The reason for this is because he'd be replacing Bernie, who is the worst center fielder in the game. Replacing Bernie's -44 UZR with Beltran's +2 makes the outfield defense undeniably much much much much better.
Agreed on Bernie, agreed the defense in CENTER will be better...but please show me how you can accurately predict how many balls pitched from Pavano are going to be hit to center field?
What of Jeter's error's? Who knows what kind of Glove Womack will have for NY? Whose gonna be playing first, how good will their glove be?
The Yanks have not been a good defensive team for over a decade.
Sorry, I see you point on paper, but still, adding one player defensively is not going to drastcially alter a pitcher's performance.
Beltran's defense will likely make Matsui and Sheff better as well. Beltran can catch balls that those guys had to go after because Bernie couldn't even get near it. It doesn't apply to just when Pavano is pitching. An outfield of Matsui/Bernie/Sheff costs the Yankees about 7 games a year. Replacing Bernie with Beltran would reduce that number to 2.Originally posted by CursetheReverse
\\
Agreed on Bernie, agreed the defense in CENTER will be better...but please show me how you can accurately predict how many balls pitched from Pavano are going to be hit to center field?
What of Jeter's error's? Who knows what kind of Glove Womack will have for NY? Whose gonna be playing first, how good will their glove be?
The Yanks have not been a good defensive team for over a decade.
Sorry, I see you point on paper, but still, adding one player defensively is not going to drastcially alter a pitcher's performance.
Jeter has never really made a lot of errors as a shortstop, so I have no idea what you're talking about there.
Defense isn't that important in the first place, I think you would agree. Just when you have the worst center fielder in the game and a great one is available via free agency, you have to add him.
"Well, you know what, Trot? Even if ARod didn't do the workouts, he's still 10x the player you are, 20 if the pitcher is a lefty." - frowndog
Originally posted by SheffMVP11
Beltran's defense will likely make Matsui and Sheff better as well. Beltran can catch balls that those guys had to go after because Bernie couldn't even get near it. It doesn't apply to just when Pavano is pitching. An outfield of Matsui/Bernie/Sheff costs the Yankees about 7 games a year. Replacing Bernie with Beltran would reduce that number to 2.
I do not think it is possible to determine how many games it will save or cosT in a realistic sense...I do however agree he would be a major boon to NY overall..defensively and offensively.
We have been watching a different Jeter and I was not exactly talking about errors alone, I should have made that more clear.Jeter has never really made a lot of errors as a shortstop, so I have no idea what you're talking about there.
Only if you have filled the bigger holes first..and that is NOT center field for the Yanks...it's pitching.Defense isn't that important in the first place, I think you would agree. Just when you have the worst center fielder in the game and a great one is available via free agency, you have to add him.
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