BP: Assessing Productive Outs

[WiffleWOOD]

http://baseballprospectus.com/articl...articleid=3634

"That said, there is simply no evidence to support the notion that making productive outs is a legitimate, repeatable skill. Nor is their any reason to believe that they are the key to winning games. The productive out is to baseball what a lab fee is to a college term bill: sure it's there, but those big numbers at the top still trump everything else."

[backstop20]

Productive Outs: 2004
Player
Team

[hardrain]

Thanks for the productive outs link. Just as I expected to see...the bad teams (Montreal....Colorado) have the best % of POs. The good teams, Sox and Yanks, near then bottom....Stats like this don't lie.

[reelbiggecko]

That's because the bad teams make more outs, period. I don't agree that there is zero value to a "productive out," but it really depends upon the situation. A productive out that moves runners to second and third with one out is a lot different in my mind than one that moves a guy to 2nd with two outs.

[backstop20]

Originally posted by reelbiggecko
That's because the bad teams make more outs, period. I don't agree that there is zero value to a "productive out," but it really depends upon the situation. A productive out that moves runners to second and third with one out is a lot different in my mind than one that moves a guy to 2nd with two outs.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/...tive?tp=player

The Productive Out
A Productive Out, as defined and developed by ESPN The Magazine and the Elias Sports Bureau: when a fly ball, grounder or bunt advances a runner with nobody out; when a pitcher bunts to advance a runner with one out (maximizing the effectiveness of the pitcher's at-bat), or when a grounder or fly ball scores a run with one out.

[Rich]

Unless a team has an anemic offense, if productive outs have any value, it's in games that are close in the late innings.

[nahzo]

Hey ESPN, how about you try and keep track of a useful stat? Thanks.

[WiffleWOOD]

Originally posted by Rich
Unless a team has an anemic offense, if productive outs have any value, it's in games that are close in the late innings.

that's it. unless you actually need the one run (in order to tie or take the lead very late in the game), this offensive model is, well, offensive.

[Irony Of It All]

Over the past two postseasons, the Yankees have had a POP of .310. From 1998-2000, when the Yankees won three consecutive championships, they had a POP of .268.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...oductive-outs/