So I'm looking through my copy of "The Hardball Times Baseball Annual" and I just happen to look at some of Halsey's stats while in the majors. What immediately stood out to me was his 4.85 FIP - Eric Milton had a 5.39 FIP, but I'm sure Halsey couldn't outperform him next year....
To ease my nerves and restore my faith in the Yankees' front office, I decided to look for some legitimate reasons to keep Halsey out of the starting rotation next year. Thus far, I have found very little.
2004 Stats (in the majors):
Stats:IP P/PA H K BB HR RA FIP DER LD% G/F IN/FLY K/9 K/BB BB/9 HR/9
32.0 3.96 41 25 14 4 7.31 4.85 .657 .171 1.09 .093 7.0 1.79 3.9 1.1
League Average 5.04 4.64 .686*.177 1.17 .155 6.4 1.94 3.3 1.2
*I actually used the 2004 Yankees' DER, not the league average.
The only, and I mean only, thing that is at all worrying to me in Halsey's limited sample size is his control. His BB/9 and P/PA are much higher than you'd like to see, especially for someone that's not a strikeout machine. But at the same time I can't say I'm too worried about his control because his BB/9 at Columbus this year was only 2.31. Also, his PA Outcomes paints a brighter picture of his brief tenure up in the bigs.
Stats:K BB GB OF IF LD
16% 10% 31% 25% 3% 12%
17% 10% 32% 22% 4% 13%
*Once again Halsey's stats are on the top and the league average (in this case the entire MLB) on the bottom.
In almost every single category Halsey is slightly below league average or slightly above league average. And everything he has done in the minors points toward him being a successful pitcher in the majors. I have yet to find a legitimate reason that he should not be the #5 starter next year.
Not giving Halsey a fair shot next year is a bad move for any team. Not giving him a shot because you're interested in someone like Eric Miltion is a whole new level of stupidity. It would be the equivalent of a guy who already has someone that wants to be his girlfriend, going to the mall and picking up an uglier, older, and more expensive girl just because you want someone that's "proven". Oh, and she would probably have your name tattooed on her ass. No properly functioning guy would do this, just like no properly functioning team would choose Milton.
Halsey is young, cheap, and if his defense helps him out at all next year, he'll likely be an above average #5 starter. Worst case scenario, Halsey flops and the Yankees have to acquire a #5 starter by the trading deadline; best case, Halsey pitches like he's capable of and the Yankees have a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the next 10 years or so. It's not a difficult decision.