The Official Patriots Analysis Thread

[FreeYayo]

Originally posted by RIyankee


Not yet. But I'm sure the Pats will get compensitory 2nd-day picks (anywhere from 4th-7th rounds) awarded by the NFL for the free agent losses of C Damien Woody and NT Ted Washington - both starters.

I forgot we are down a second round pick this year too.
or did we trade away this past years pick?

In any case 1100+ yards has been well worth the pick.

[RIyankee]

Originally posted by FreeYayo

I forgot we are down a second round pick this year too.
or did we trade away this past years pick?

In any case 1100+ yards has been well worth the pick.

We traded a 2004 2nd rounder only. We have all our picks for 2005.


How's this for Moneyball: NFL Style...

They sucker the Saints into giving up 2003 3rd and 4th rounders for Tebucky Jones. Miami wants an extra 3rd-R pick and agrees to trade their 2nd-R pick in 2004 for the Pats 2003 3rd-R pick via the Saints. A year later the Pats send that 2-R pick from Miami to the Bengals for RB Corey Dillion.

[cubswin]

Originally posted by RIyankee


We traded a 2004 2nd rounder only. We have all our picks for 2005.


How's this for Moneyball: NFL Style...

They sucker the Saints into giving up 2003 3rd and 4th rounders for Tebucky Jones. Miami wants an extra 3rd-R pick and agrees to trade their 2nd-R pick in 2004 for the Pats 2003 3rd-R pick via the Saints. A year later the Pats send that 2-R pick from Miami to the Bengals for RB Corey Dillion.

any idea how Tebucky is playing?

[RIyankee]

Originally posted by cubswin



any idea how Tebucky is playing?

Last year wasn't good. Based on the play of the NO "D", 2004 doesn't look good either.

[NYPenn]

I don't know if you noticed, RIYankee, but Brown was indeed returning punts in the second half against the Ravens.

Dillon is the workhorse at RB, of course, but it's the M.O. of the Pats to have everyone contribute. Faulk and Pass will, I imagine, continue to split playing time. I think they both have contributions to make. Faulke is generally damn good catching passes out of the backfield. He's made some huge catches in the past few years.

I'm just waiting for the day Richard Seymour catches a TD pass. Did you see Brady looking for him in the end zone a couple of weeks ago?

[reelbiggecko]

Originally posted by NYPenn
I don't know if you noticed, RIYankee, but Brown was indeed returning punts in the second half against the Ravens.

Dillon is the workhorse at RB, of course, but it's the M.O. of the Pats to have everyone contribute. Faulk and Pass will, I imagine, continue to split playing time. I think they both have contributions to make. Faulke is generally damn good catching passes out of the backfield. He's made some huge catches in the past few years.

Faulk's like a good beer...best if used in moderation. In a sense Pass is the same way, but he's more of your classic backup running back, whereas Faulk can fill in at multiple positions, and has tons of versatility. I remember last year there were definitely times when Faulk would line up as a receiver in the slot, though I haven't noticed him being used like that this year at all.

[RIyankee]

NYPenn, I hope Brown reamins the PR.

Pass has shown the ability to be a good receiver out of the backfield. He's a late bloomer who had struggled with attitude and work habits in the past. With the TEs being taken off pass routes for pass protection, something that will happen on a regular basis if Light doesn't play, Pass could become an important safety option for Brady.


BTW CB Tyrone Poole should be back soon, if not this Sunday. Last I heard he's close to 100%.

[Buckeye Yank]

Originally posted by RIyankee


Not to be a wiseguy but...

Your Steelers have a tough game at Jacksonville Sunday night. If the Pats run the table and Pitt doesn't, the road to the SB will go through Foxboro.

Thanks for pointing that out. Not quite sure what that has to do with Holcomb being hurt but thanks.

[RIyankee]

Originally posted by Buckeye Yank


Thanks for pointing that out. Not quite sure what that has to do with Holcomb being hurt but thanks.

I know you to be a Steelers fan and I'm getting playoff fever.

[NYPenn]

"BTW CB Tyrone Poole should be back soon, if not this Sunday. Last I heard he's close to 100%."

Thanks, that's good news. And I'm pretty sure they wouldn't play him against the Browns unless he is indeed at 100%. I wonder how Asante is doing?

Latest on Matt Light is that he was seen walking without a limp yesterday, but I don't know if he'll practice today. I'd say he could afford to miss a game, if they're worried about him. Better safe than sorry.

[Buckeye Yank]

Originally posted by RIyankee


I know you to be a Steelers fan and I'm getting playoff fever.

You're right, I am a Steelers fan....big time. But I didn't see how that had any relation to my comment about the potential for Holcomb not playing against the Pats due to a possible rib injury. Thought perhaps you were just trying to stir something up there. For what it's worth, I think the Steelers are playing like horsecrap right now and I'm thankful the schedule is softening a bit. And yes, it will be a tough game in Jax and I wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers lose by 14.

[RIyankee]

Originally posted by Buckeye Yank


You're right, I am a Steelers fan....big time. But I didn't see how that had any relation to my comment about the potential for Holcomb not playing against the Pats due to a possible rib injury. Thought perhaps you were just trying to stir something up there. For what it's worth, I think the Steelers are playing like horsecrap right now and I'm thankful the schedule is softening a bit. And yes, it will be a tough game in Jax and I wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers lose by 14.

Sorry, didin't mean to come across that way. You're a good poster and and I got a little too excited. Thanks for the info on Holcolmb. This morning, I heard he's questionable and McCown (Cards QB's brother) is still expected to start. Thanks again!

[NYPenn]

Injury update: Ty Law had his cast removed Wednesday and hopes to be back before the playoffs. Matt Light is fine; apparently it was just a twisted ankle, and it looks like he'll start Sunday.

Goofiness update: Tom Brady, at his locker addressing the media Wednesday, got bombarded with Silly String by offensive linemen Dan Koppen and Joe Andruzzi. Looks like not only are the Sox turning into the Pats, but the Pats are turning into the Sox

[Buckeye Yank]

Originally posted by RIyankee


Sorry, didin't mean to come across that way. You're a good poster and and I got a little too excited. Thanks for the info on Holcolmb. This morning, I heard he's questionable and McCown (Cards QB's brother) is still expected to start. Thanks again!

No prob.

[FreeYayo]

Originally posted by NYPenn
Injury update: Ty Law had his cast removed Wednesday and hopes to be back before the playoffs. Matt Light is fine; apparently it was just a twisted ankle, and it looks like he'll start Sunday.

I can assure you of the Ty Law thing because my mom and sis saw him at the mall Thurs limping around. My sis even snapped a shot with her camera phone.

Ok A little over 3 hours until kickoff. Let's go Pats.

[reelbiggecko]

Man I love Sundays. I wake up at 12:55, and the Pats are on at 1!

[reelbiggecko]

AAAAAAAND Bethel Johnson takes the opening kickoff back for a TD! No one even came CLOSE to stopping him, this could be a LONG game haha.

[WebsterMulligan]

Originally posted by reelbiggecko
AAAAAAAND Bethel Johnson takes the opening kickoff back for a TD! No one even came CLOSE to stopping him, this could be a LONG game haha.

This game will be NO contest. The Pat's will win by three TD's, minimum.

[WebsterMulligan]

The Titan's have an early 17-10 lead over the Colts. A Titan win could help the Pat's with playoff seeding. Hopefully, the Steeler's will lose somewhere down the road. The Pat's having to go through both the Colts and the Steelers (at home), in the playoffs, would be a tall order.

[FreeYayo]

McCown looks horrendous.
I know he's a rookie and this is his first game but some of the decisions hes made is beyond me.

[FreeYayo]

Originally posted by FreeYayo
McCown looks horrendous.
I know he's a rookie and this is his first game but some of the decisions hes made is beyond me.

And there's interception #2
EDIT: It is being challenged and likely to be overturned

[WebsterMulligan]

Originally posted by FreeYayo

And there's interception #2

That pass should have been caught. It was right on the numbers. The play is being contested.

[S2]

Originally posted by WebsterMulligan
Hopefully, the Steeler's will lose somewhere down the road. The Pat's having to go through both the Colts and the Steelers (at home), in the playoffs, would be a tall order.

I think last year's road to the Super Bowl will be tougher than this year's will be for the Pats.

Last year, they faced a very physical Titan team and a Colt's O that was clicking more than it is now (you have to figure they are slowed down before January). And plus, this year, Corey Dillion is running, not Smith. I can't see them losing again this year (at New York being the only tough one, hopefully everyone is healthy) and Pittsburgh's sched. is tougher (@ Jax, NYJ, @ NYG, BAL and @ BUF, they could easily go 3-2). Therfore, the road to Jacksonville goes through Foxboro.

[WebsterMulligan]

Originally posted by S2


I think last year's road to the Super Bowl will be tougher than this year's will be for the Pats.

Last year, they faced a very physical Titan team and a Colt's O that was clicking more than it is now (you have to figure they are slowed down before January). And plus, this year, Corey Dillion is running, not Smith. I can't see them losing again this year (at New York being the only tough one, hopefully everyone is healthy) and Pittsburgh's sched. is tougher (@ Jax, NYJ, @ NYG, BAL and @ BUF, they could easily go 3-2). Therfore, the road to Jacksonville goes through Foxboro.

Dillon definitely makes the Patriot's better than last year's squad. Homefield advantage for the Pat's would be a definite plus. The game I fear the most for the Pat's, is against Buffalo. Playing at Buffalo could be tough, depending on weather conditions, home crowd, etc. Buffalo has somewhat improved it's play of late and may have some extra incentive to beat the Pats. If Buffalo strings together a few wins, they may be playing for a WC birth.

[WebsterMulligan]

42-7! This game is way out of hand. There's no reason for Brady to still be in this game. Empty the bench, Belichick, before anyone gets hurt.

[S2]

Originally posted by WebsterMulligan


The game I fear the most for the Pat's, is against Buffalo. Playing at Buffalo could be tough, depending on weather conditions, home crowd, etc. Buffalo has somewhat improved it's play of late and may have some extra incentive to beat the Pats. If Buffalo strings together a few wins, they may be playing for a WC birth.

New England doesn't play Buffalo anymore. Pittsburgh goes to Buffalo in Week 17. And that's why I like Buffalo to upset Pittsburgh, because of the reasons you listed.

Troy Brown (interception number two) is amazing.

[WebsterMulligan]

Originally posted by S2


New England doesn't play Buffalo anymore.

Oops! You're right.

[reelbiggecko]

Pittsburgh, if they can hang on tonight, won't get past Baltimore. NE will have the #1 seed going into the playoffs, as their only "tough" game left is against the Jets, the WORST 9-3 team in the history of the NFL.

[FreeYayo]

Originally posted by reelbiggecko
as their only "tough" game left is against the Jets, the WORST 9-3 team in the history of the NFL.

Uh oh I have a feeling someone might have something to say about that.
I forgot his name but I think it rhymes with "left beaver man".

[RIyankee]

There are some things about the Pats that concern me...

- Dillon's fumbling: If he doesn't start taking better care of the ball, he will eventually hurt this team.

- The Passing Game: It's my observation that while our "D" and running game has played well, the passing game seems a bit off. Here's what's bugging me about it...

1.) Protection: LT Matt Light is not having a good year. He's allowed too many sacks/hits. Overall, Brady's taken way too many hits and has been pressured into incompletions often. His Comp% is down this year.
2.) Lack of a Screen Pass: The best way to keep blitzing defenses honest, is to use the screen. However, the Pats haven't been going to it enough IMO.
3.) WRs not getting open. When Brady does have time to throw, he's got nobody to throw to. Too often, the TEs have to stay in to help with pass protection. That's takes away from the offense.


JMHO

[RIREDSOXFAN]

I agree with you on several points.

Light is having an off year. Do you think the musical chairs they've played with the OLine have affected him? Do you think the loss of Damien Woody to FA has hurt?
I've been wondering as well about the screen pass. They useed to LIVE on them, and now you hardly ever see them. Now that they have a running game, it seems like they've dropped the short passing game altogether.
I don't remember Dillon being a fumbler, but I have also noticed the fumbling recently. Speaking of Dillon, what did you think of them letting him come in in the 3rd quarter to get his 100 yards? It didn't strike me as a very "Patriot" thing to do. Aren't they the team that puts individual accomplishments last, and team first. I hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't be shocked if Dillon someday comes back to bite the Pats.
This might sound like nitpicking, but I agree with you there are causes for concern. The concensus up here is they'll run the table, but I have alot of respect for the Jets, I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they lost to them.
I think Pittsburgh pulling the game out last night was a real blow to the Patriots chances of top seed. I think top seed this year is crucial, because not only do you get home-field througout, but most likely you avoid playing Indy in the first game. If the Pats don't get it, they may end up with Indy at home and then Pittsburgh on the road-a tough way to get back to the Super Bowl.

[cubswin]

The only thing I disagree about is the implication that Dillon is fumbling a lot, when, if you look at the season as a whole, he is not. If you're concerned that the last 3 games may be a trend, rather than a statistical anomaly, fair enough, though I don't know any reason to have that concern.

Re. putting him in to get the 100, I thought they also might have been letting him check out the leg. But I don't know if it's out of line to let a player get an individual accomplishment, when that accomplishment actually helps the team - they were going to be running a lot, this was just 1 more of those plays.

[RIyankee]

I have no strong feelings either way about the 100 yards. I look at it as more of a contractual thing (incentives). I'm not saying that is the case, but when a player agrees to restructure his contract and wants to play here, as I believe is the case with Dillon, and has contributed to the winning of several key games, I let him have those two yards. JMHO

[bnorris85]

dillion getting 100 yards in that game doesnt bother me...its not like it was a close game where they needed to pass, but instead they were rushing it for a rushing record or something

[NYPenn]

Is two fumbles in 10 games fumbling a lot? With the number of carries Dillon has racked up? I don't think so.

Regarding going for 100 yards, if Weis and Belichick wanted Dillon to sit at 98 yards, he would have sat. And I'm certain he would not have complained; he has not complained about anything at all this year. With the team leading by a million points, they let him get his 100 yards. It's a nice way to say Good Job, Corey, and acknowledge his contribution to the team's success. Belichick, believe it or not, does have a heart.

And regarding Brady's passing, he said post-game he was having trouble for some reason gripping the ball. At varying times in the game he was gloveless, wearing one glove (non-throwing hand) and wearing both gloves. But complaining about his passing after such a win seems a bit silly, like complaining about the lack of chocolate chip cookies at a dessert table overflowing with mousse a chocolate, carrot cake and key lime pie.

[DJnVa]

Originally posted by reelbiggecko
Pittsburgh, if they can hang on tonight, won't get past Baltimore. NE will have the #1 seed going into the playoffs, as their only "tough" game left is against the Jets, the WORST 9-3 team in the history of the NFL.

Wait, I thought the Falcons were the worst 9-3 team in the NFL?

[reelbiggecko]

RIYankee fan, I agree that the passing game seems a bit "off" numbers-wise, but I'm not worrying. THe fact of the matter is with Dillon this year, the Pats have much more of a traditional running game, and haven't been relying on the short-passing game that they used so much in the fast couple of years. More of Brady's passes are going downfield than we're used to seeing, and because of this his completion % numbers are bound to drop.

I do agree that the wide receivers need to start doing a better job though.

[RIREDSOXFAN]

I guess I have no one who agrees with me re: Dillon.

Maybe Pats fans are getting a little spoiled. Is anyone concerned about them not getting home field, or am I making too much of it?

[WebsterMulligan]

Originally posted by RIyankee
I have no strong feelings either way about the 100 yards. I look at it as more of a contractual thing (incentives). I'm not saying that is the case, but when a player agrees to restructure his contract and wants to play here, as I believe is the case with Dillon, and has contributed to the winning of several key games, I let him have those two yards. JMHO

I heard (on WEEI 850) that there are no incentives in his contract for 100 yard games. Just for total yardage (1,000, 1,200, 1,600, etc). IIRC, Dillon is one of the lowest paid starting RB in the NFL. If Belichick wants to throw him a bone, so that he makes some extra money on incentives, it's ok with me. Perhaps with Belichick helping him out, he'll play even harder for him.

[reelbiggecko]

Originally posted by RIREDSOXFAN
I guess I have no one who agrees with me re: Dillon.

Maybe Pats fans are getting a little spoiled. Is anyone concerned about them not getting home field, or am I making too much of it?

I'm not concerned because, like I said, I'd be very surprised if Pitt doesn't lose a game between now and the end of the season *cough* Baltimore *cough*

[RIyankee]

Originally posted by RIREDSOXFAN
I guess I have no one who agrees with me re: Dillon.

Maybe Pats fans are getting a little spoiled. Is anyone concerned about them not getting home field, or am I making too much of it?

Well, I think many Pats fans feel these last four games are a formality and are ready for the playoffs. The media needs news so I think the Dillon "controversy" is being overplayed. IMO by the end of this week, people will have forgotten about it.

BTW I agree with you that playing Indy and Pitt B-to-B in the playoffs would be daunting to say the least. Having a bye week will help and it's looking more and more that Law/Samuel/Poole will be healthy by the AFC Divisonal game. Don't forget, last year we had the very physical Titans and Colts B-to-B last season.

[S2]

Originally posted by reelbiggecko


I'm not concerned because, like I said, I'd be very surprised if Pitt doesn't lose a game between now and the end of the season *cough* Baltimore *cough*

I don't care where the Pats play the Steelers again, it won't matter. I figured out an interesting statistic: Since 2001 (when the Pats became the team they are now) the Pats have played teams twice in a season 14 times (incl. playoffs). In the first meetings, they are 9-5. In the second meeting, they are 13-1! (the lone loss coming from the Jets in 02)

I can't see Belichick losing to the Steelers again, after seeing them already. (see: Rams, 2001)

EDIT: The Pats have also never lost to the same opponent twice in one season since 2001 either.

[RIyankee]

Originally posted by S2


I don't care where the Pats play the Steelers again, it won't matter. I figured out an interesting statistic: Since 2001 (when the Pats became the team they are now) the Pats have played teams twice in a season 14 times (incl. playoffs). In the first meetings, they are 9-5. In the second meeting, they are 13-1! (the lone loss coming from the Jets in 02)

I can't see Belichick losing to the Steelers again, after seeing them already. (see: Rams, 2001)

EDIT: The Pats have also never lost to the same opponent twice in one season since 2001 either.

Those stats are interesting, but are meaningless if the Pats and Steelers meet in the postseason.

My thoughts on the Steelers...

Pitt's D-coordinator Dick LeBeau has done a tremendous job taking over what was a declining defense this year. This is the best "D" I've seen Pitt play since the mid 90s.

The best way to beat them is via the deep pass. The Steelers CBs have yet to be exposed. There are problems with this...

- The long ball is the weakest part of Brady's game. I'm not saying he's incapable but high% passes have been his staple for his short, but spectacluar career.

- The Pats WRs don't scare anyone. Patten has the speed to go deep but lacks long arms and big hands. Bethel Johnson perhaps?

- Pitt is good at defending screens and short routes due to their zone blitz scemes. They would dare Brady to throw deep while they key on Dillon. However, if the their pass rushers can't get to Brady, those ZBs will be rendered ineffective.

- The Pats O-Line has been awful at pass protection and the Browns game was no exception. Even LT Matt Light was disgusted with his performance against Browns DE Kennard Lang. Brady will need sufficient time to find his deep WRs.

[FreeYayo]

Remember Branch is back now and Dillon didn't play the first time Vs. the Steelers.
Branch has the ability to get open against just about anyone. The Browns covered well at times though.

The real scare for me is the O-line of the Pats though. They seem to be very streaky with their pass protection this year. Looks brilliant at times and extremely shaky at other times. But all in all they are doing a good job considering that most of these guys would have been an afterthought on most teams because I doubt they'd get much of a shot.

I think the real difference would be a healthy D against the steelers though.

[S2]

I just hope Law, Dillion, Branch, Poole etc are healthy for the playoffs. I can't picture the Pats losing with a healthy team. Over the last 27 games, they've won 26. And in that one loss, they were severly hurting in the injury department. Unbelievable.

I've said it before, no way Belichick loses to the Steelers the second time around. Roethlisbergr (?) will be sacked a bunch, if they feel like blitzing. The Steelers O-line hasn't been too sharp recently, Ben's been pushed around lately.

[reelbiggecko]

The fact is the Steelers' offense has been mediocre at best lately. You're right that the Pats' offense will have its hands full with the Steelers' D, but Pitt will have even greater problems going up against New England's defense, especially since we will undoubtedly have our secondary healed up by then.

[Buckeye Yank]

Originally posted by S2


EDIT: The Pats have also never lost to the same opponent twice in one season since 2001 either.

............YET.

[RIyankee]

Originally posted by reelbiggecko
The fact is the Steelers' offense has been mediocre at best lately. You're right that the Pats' offense will have its hands full with the Steelers' D, but Pitt will have even greater problems going up against New England's defense, especially since we will undoubtedly have our secondary healed up by then.

The Pats front seven needs to contain their running game if they want any chance of winning. The Steelers O-Line is the best in the NFL and that unit dominated a healthy Pats D-Line this year. That part of the loss bothered me more than anything else.

[RIyankee]

Originally posted by RIREDSOXFAN

I think Pittsburgh pulling the game out last night was a real blow to the Patriots chances of top seed. I think top seed this year is crucial, because not only do you get home-field througout, but most likely you avoid playing Indy in the first game. If the Pats don't get it, they may end up with Indy at home and then Pittsburgh on the road-a tough way to get back to the Super Bowl.

FYI Pats fans....

The # 3 seed will be decided in the final week of the season (Jan 2) when SD plays at Indy. This Sunday, SD plays home vs. TB and then @Cleveland the following week, then @Indy.

To quote Arte Johnson, "very interesting".

[RIREDSOXFAN]

Thanks for the info on seeding. I just assume Indy will finish ahead, but it's not a done deal yet.
It's true they won back-to-back last year, but they were both at home.
Pittsburgh and Indy are very good teams, whoever wins from the AFC will have earned it.
Brady has gotten much better over the last couple of years with the deep ball, but whoever plays who, it's going to be tough.