There's no sign of Posada going anywhere. Does that mean that Dioner will just become a trading chip? Or will Jorge be traded to make room for new talent?
There's no sign of Posada going anywhere. Does that mean that Dioner will just become a trading chip? Or will Jorge be traded to make room for new talent?
Navarro needs a full season at AAA. Flaherty should be brought back for another season as Posada's back-up. Then Navarro should become the back-up, and be eased into the starter's roll. He should be the big club's starting catcher by the '07 season...
I wouldn't trade him under any circumstances. Teams that had a chance to acquire him at the deadline (especially Arizona) will rue the day they didn't trade for him. He showed too much promise after it was clear that he wasn't going anywhere at the deadline...
I agree with Yanks21 assessment - Dioner needs another year's seasoning at the AAA level. Should Posada get hurt next season (knock on wood), then Dioner gets an early call to arms.
In 2006, Posada begins the transition to a new catcher for the Yankees and a new role for him. I see Posada picking up a 1Bman's glove and spending time there, as well as time at DH.
The Yankees will need to see what Dioner can do in 2006 - they have a decision to make on Posada after that season, in that the team has a $12M option or $4M buyout for the 2007 season. If Posada is on the downslide, then the Yankees better hope that Navarro is ready to take over full-time.
http://mb2.theinsiders.com/fbaseball...art=61&stop=65
Good Navarro question, Clipper. First I should clarify the stratification of the Big 60 list as a whole. Here are the grades within the rankings:
1-4 A+ superelite prospects
5-12 A elite
13-20 A- great
21-31 B+ excellent
32-43 B very good
44-60 B- good
A+ a certain star; 50/50 chance at superstar
A likely star; 20-30% chance of superstardom
A- 50/50 likelihood of stardom
B+ above average regular; 20-30% chance at stardom
B almost certain regular
B- likely regular
Of course, the very young players (e.g. James Loney, Alex Romero, Erick Aybar, Felix Pie, etc.) could surprise with a large leap forward; but right now this is where I see them.
Navarro is rated so highly for 4 main reasons.
1) Improved defense in '04, solidifying his chances of remaining behind the plate long term.
2) 20-year-old catchers in AAA are historically very few and far between; merely to *be there* and not completely overwhelmed is a substantial achievement.
3) Navarro showed exceptional hitting ability--including more pop than he's given credit for--relative to his age and league in 2003. (He's Venezuelan, not Dominican, so his age is very likely legit.) Among quite young players, a fluke outstanding season is much rarer than a fluke poor one. In other words, I believe 2004 will prove to be more the anomaly than 2003.
4) More than other positions, catchers tend to cultivate their hitting, especially their power, later in their careers. To wit:
Javy Lopez never posted even a .700 OPS until his 5th season in the minors.
Mike Piazza hit .250 with 11 BB and 68 K's in high-A at 21.
Future 40-HR guy Todd Hundley slugged just .333 in AA at 21.
Jorge Posada hit .240 in AAA, with 81 K's and only 32 walks.
Mike Lieberthal didn't slug .380 until his 6th minors season (23 in AAA).
Pudge Rodriguez hit only 12 homers in nearly 1,000 minor league at-bats, while drawing fewer than 40 walks total. Pudge was *extra* young, of course (but so is Navarro). Do I think Dioner will eventually hit like Pudge? Not really; but I think that, like Yadier Molina of the Cardinals, Navarro will hit .280-.300 consistently with at least 15-20 homers once he reaches 24, 25 years of age. And there's a decent chance he'll be better than that.
"I love Hughes, really I'm not kidding here, I am in love with him, I'm a straight male and I don't even know what he looks like, but I am in love."-JeterRodriguezSheff
DittoOriginally posted by Yanks21
Navarro needs a full season at AAA. Flaherty should be brought back for another season as Posada's back-up. Then Navarro should become the back-up, and be eased into the starter's roll. He should be the big club's starting catcher by the '07 season...
I wouldn't trade him under any circumstances. Teams that had a chance to acquire him at the deadline (especially Arizona) will rue the day they didn't trade for him. He showed too much promise after it was clear that he wasn't going anywhere at the deadline...
Isn't keeping Navarro at AAA for the '05 season a waste of talent in its defensive prime? Why not carry three catchers and have Dioner start splitting time with Jorge next year? Jorge can DH when not catching.
Last edited by JJBNYC; 10-24-04 at 08:26 PM.
So now we are going to throw Jorge into the DH mix along with Bernie and Jason?Originally posted by JJBNYC
Isn't keeping Navarro at AAA for the '05 season a waste of talent in its defensive prime? Why not carry three catchers and have Dioner starting splitting time with Jorge next year? Jorge can DH when not catching.
Better to keep Navarro at AAA - he has played a total of 168 games above the A level, essentially the equivalent of one ML season.
Besides, his offensive numbers at AAA were not that great - in 40 games (136 AB) at Columbus, he only hit .250, with but one HR, a SLG of .361 and an OBP of .316. His 17 K at Columbus means his AB/K was 7.88.
If Navarro lights it up in AAA next spring, then I can see the idea of promoting him midseason. Otherwise, he should be a September callup/emergency option due to injury.
I'm really not sure if that applies to catchers, or at least not as much. The impression I've gotten is that players start to lose their range almost as soon as they hit the majors, which isn't nearly as important for catchers.Originally posted by JJBNYC
Isn't keeping Navarro at AAA for the '05 season a waste of talent in its defensive prime?
He needs another full season of calling his own games. Offensively, he could use another season getting used to the higher level of pitching. Keeping him up at the big level would be the waste. He'd never play...Originally posted by JJBNYC
Isn't keeping Navarro at AAA for the '05 season a waste of talent in its defensive prime? Why not carry three catchers and have Dioner starting splitting time with Jorge next year? Jorge can DH when not catching.
How do you know that he needs another full season of calling his own games?Originally posted by Yanks21
He needs another full season of calling his own games. Offensively, he could use another season getting used to the higher level of pitching. Keeping him up at the big level would be the waste. He'd never play...
They're going to make Jason play 1B. I'm not on the Beltran bandwagon.Originally posted by longtimeyankeefan
So now we are going to throw Jorge into the DH mix along with Bernie and Jason?
Better to keep Navarro at AAA - he has played a total of 168 games above the A level, essentially the equivalent of one ML season.
Besides, his offensive numbers at AAA were not that great - in 40 games (136 AB) at Columbus, he only hit .250, with but one HR, a SLG of .361 and an OBP of .316. His 17 K at Columbus means his AB/K was 7.88.
If Navarro lights it up in AAA next spring, then I can see the idea of promoting him midseason. Otherwise, he should be a September callup/emergency option due to injury.
Is Jorge a good catcher at this point? I know he's a great hitter, but is he a good catcher?
Why arent you on the Beltran bandwagon? Who do you want to play CF after Bernie is gone?Originally posted by JJBNYC
They're going to make Jason play 1B. I'm not on the Beltran bandwagon.
Is Jorge a good catcher at this point? I know he's a great hitter, but is he a good catcher?
Because it's one of his weaknesses...Originally posted by JJBNYC
How do you know that he needs another full season of calling his own games?
I'm not sold that Navarro needs a full season in AAA in 2005. I am almost convinced that he should play 20 - 30 percent of the time in the bigs, backing up Posada. This would be similar to what Posada did to Giradi in 1997. Then, make it closer to 50-50 in 2006, and if Navarro improves, drop Posada after 2006, or keep him around if he renegotiates his deal.
Anyone who can play defense and doesn't cost $120 million. I was thinking that they could pick-up someone like Ricky Ledee to split time with Bernie (buy-out and re-sign) for a year or two until Cabrera's ready.Originally posted by Kulish29
Why arent you on the Beltran bandwagon? Who do you want to play CF after Bernie is gone?
How do you know it's one of his weaknesses? I'm not trying to be an ass; I'm really just curious.Originally posted by Yanks21
Because it's one of his weaknesses...
Because it's part of his scouting report. He's been catching professionally for a grand total of 3 years. The fact he needs work calling games is hardly surprising...Originally posted by JJBNYC
How do you know it's one of his weaknesses? I'm not trying to be an ass; I'm really just curious.
Didn't Posada switch from 2B to catcher somewhere in the minors? I think it was in 1993 or so. If that's the case, then Navarro is about equal with Posada experience-wise as to when Jorge first came up for good.Originally posted by Yanks21
Because it's part of his scouting report. He's been catching professionally for a grand total of 3 years. The fact he needs work calling games is hardly surprising...
The $12 mil option in 2007 becomes guaranteed if Posada has 330 appearances behind the plate in 2004 - 2006. The $4 mil buyout would be pushed back to 2008.Originally posted by mbn007
I'm not sold that Navarro needs a full season in AAA in 2005. I am almost convinced that he should play 20 - 30 percent of the time in the bigs, backing up Posada. This would be similar to what Posada did to Giradi in 1997. Then, make it closer to 50-50 in 2006, and if Navarro improves, drop Posada after 2006, or keep him around if he renegotiates his deal.
Thanks.Originally posted by backstop20
The $12 mil option in 2007 becomes guaranteed if Posada has 330 appearances behind the plate in 2004 - 2006. The $4 mil buyout would be pushed back to 2008.
I knew there was a vesting clause, but I thought it was closer to a full season. This would make my senario more difficult, but not impossible.
At his young age, another year in the minors could only make him better. The yankee catching over the next few years should be in good hands with Posada and hopefully, Flaherty coming back. What they have in experience is necessary to keep the pitching affective...of course that only works if they get better front line pitchers!
This means we'll start to see the switchover next year, doesn't it? There's no way they want to pay Jorge $12 million in 2007.Originally posted by backstop20
The $12 mil option in 2007 becomes guaranteed if Posada has 330 appearances behind the plate in 2004 - 2006. The $4 mil buyout would be pushed back to 2008.
And IIRC one of the biggest knocks on Posada when he came up was his game calling, something Girardi helped him immensely with.Originally posted by mbn007
Didn't Posada switch from 2B to catcher somewhere in the minors? I think it was in 1993 or so. If that's the case, then Navarro is about equal with Posada experience-wise as to when Jorge first came up for good.
I agree with the Navarro in AAA for 2005 crowd. There is no questions that he needs more innings behind the plate. C in the bigs is a unique position, requiring the C to have instincts, a feel for the game and an understanding of situational pitch calling. All of that can only be gained through game experience. At 20-21, he just hasn't had enough.
Remember, when Pudge came up with the Rangers, he was better known for his arm. His other skills were deficient to the point that he was regarded as a poor handler of pitchers for years- a conception that was not erased until he lead the Marlins to the WS title. It takes time to be a complete C in the bigs- with Posada, there is no rush.
Now, just to throw in a monkey wrench- Posada does has a contractual out that he could exercise this off-season to become a FA. Could he get a better deal than the one he has now? That's an open question, and a good one with only Pudge and Varitek being in Posada's class- and Pudge got his last year, and Varitek will get paid this year- will Jorge sit back and wait for several years for late FA?
ANother major issue with posada when he came up was his plate-blocking ability, and passed balls issue. Both these issues seem to still plague him, although personally, I think he does block the plate much better these days then he did wehen he came up.Originally posted by wileedog
And IIRC one of the biggest knocks on Posada when he came up was his game calling, something Girardi helped him immensely with.
Originally posted by Matsui55
Now, just to throw in a monkey wrench- Posada does has a contractual out that he could exercise this off-season to become a FA. Could he get a better deal than the one he has now? That's an open question, and a good one with only Pudge and Varitek being in Posada's class- and Pudge got his last year, and Varitek will get paid this year- will Jorge sit back and wait for several years for late FA?
Jorge locked up a while ago. I think he would be foolish to test the post-CBA market coming off the year he had, and he's only getting older.
He won't get that money elsewhere, unless he wants to pull a pudge, get it for i year and do it in detroit or Washington.
He's not gonna walk away from the rest of his guaranteed contract.
"We understand that John Henry must be embarrassed, frustrated and disappointed by his failure in this transaction. Unlike the Yankees, he chose not to go the extra distance for his fans in Boston. It is understandable, but wrong that he would try to deflect the accountability for his mistakes on to others and to a system for which he voted in favor. It is time to get on with life and forget the sour grapes."
Agreed. A good test case will be Varitek this off season, although I think the Bosox will pay to lock him up for 3 seasons. If he wants more, at his age, I think the Bosox pass though.Originally posted by koko
Jorge locked up a while ago. I think he would be foolish to test the post-CBA market coming off the year he had, and he's only getting older.
He won't get that money elsewhere, unless he wants to pull a pudge, get it for i year and do it in detroit or Washington.
He's not gonna walk away from the rest of his guaranteed contract.
Let him at least start at AAA, I expect him to take off in `05 if he's not traded this winter. I think all of the trade talk messed with his head this year.
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