Was Boston's starting staff overrated?

[Pomp]

This is a topic on SOSH right now and I am curious to hear what people think. It seems that the majority opinion on SOSH is that the staff is overrated. Here is how I see it.

Boston has no #4 starter in Derek Lowe and a shaky #5 in Arroyo. Their 3rd starter is a knuckleballer who has been up and down most of his career, but has pitched very well so far this year. Schilling has been solid. The most shocking thing to me is Pedro has a 4.40 ERA and we are in June. Has he ever had an ERA this high this late in the season?

[Little Big Sheff]

Lowe is awful, and while he won't be THAT awful for long, he revealed his true colors : the 2002 guy was a fluke IMO.

The back end of their rotation is worse than ours, and that's a big statement, considering how useless Contreras has been for us so far.

Wakefield has been quite good, but with the ups and dows of knuckleballing, he is certainly not the guy you would like to rely on for a serious run.

Schilling is great - probably the best in the AL right now - and Pedro is a big question mark. I think he will straighten things out but I would certainly not expect the Grand Dominant to be back.

All in all, I think this rotation appears to be not as good as expected, when OTOH we got a big surprise in Lieber (not the go-to guy but a very effective #4 pitcher).

In fact, if Pedro gets better (I am sure he will) they are two deep (three w/ Wakefield) and if Moose gets better on our side, we are three deep (four w/ Lieber). We are in good shape.

But one thing is certain, I know two front offices that will go very aggressively after pitching the next offseason (depth and age are two weaknesses of these two rotations).

[Wrigley]

Originally posted by Pomp
This is a topic on SOSH right now and I am curious to hear what people think. It seems that the majority opinion on SOSH is that the staff is overrated. Here is how I see it.

Boston has no #4 starter in Derek Lowe and a shaky #5 in Arroyo. Their 3rd starter is a knuckleballer who has been up and down most of his career, but has pitched very well so far this year. Schilling has been solid. The most shocking thing to me is Pedro has a 4.40 ERA and we are in June. Has he ever had an ERA this high this late in the season?

Schilling is the horse and proven ace of the staff. He's been among the elite in the game for the last few years and goes ape$hit in big games (5-1, 1.66 ERA in the postseason.) The man is a freak and total psycho if you ask me. This is a compliment.

Pedro, while leading the ML in ERA the last couple of years has gotten increasingly unreliable, especially this season. He still has relatively great control, but he's been missing his spots a whole lot more than usual this season. He can be an effective pitcher but he isn't going to be dominant throwing 88 mph fastballs... it's just not going to happen. He needs to throw at least 91-92 reguarly. I believe he CAN, he's just chosing not to as to save himself... he's eventually going to be forced to throw harder if he keeps having poor outings. However, it isn't going to do much for him if he can't locate a 92 mph fastball... this is a guy that used to be able to spot 98 anywhere and anytime he pleased. It's really sad how much his skills have diminished, and as a fan of Pedro's pitching, it sucks to see him like this. Amazingly, he still leads the American League in strikeouts, so go figure...

Wakefield has been a solid number 3 starter for them all year and may keep the ERA under 4 this season. Plus, his knuckler always seems to be doing it's best dance moves when the Sox are battling the Yankees as of late.

I don't think there is any hope for Derek Lowe. He had his one great season in his first year as a starter and despite what some say, was borderline BAD last season. A 4.47 ERA ... I don't care how many wins he had behind the best offense in the game. This season he's just been god awful. I really think he's finished. His little fits and runs into the clubhouse after bad outings just seem childish and scream "Head Case!"

Bronson AAArroyo (as DD calls him) has been good some nights, bad on others. He's just been bad recently... but hey, he's a 27 year old minor leaguer and is the 5th starter, what do you expect?

So yes, I believe at least the starting rotation is very overrated. However, I really think that Bullpen is for real when everyone is healthy. Right now they are missing a very key part and really, a dominant setup man in Williamson.

People said at the beginning of the year that the key would be Derek Lowe and how he does in his third year as a starter. This was of course when everyone assumed Pedro would have an ERA at least under 3 like he has done every single season since 1996. Now, I think that Pedro is actually the key. He needs to settle into a groove and rattle off a long string of very solid outings and re-establish himself as one of the best in the game and give Boston fans confidence that they do indeed possess the best 1-2 punch in the game. If Pedro is performing the way he can, I think they do. The wonderful thing about Schilling and his "horsy" ways, is that he can start 3 games in a 7 game series, something he did with very good success in the 2001 World Series. Some will say.. "Can he still do it? At 38?"... I don't think there is any doubt. Whatsoever.

[Bozidar]

Wakefield is better than "up and down his whole career". For the last 3 years he's been brilliant. IMO, he's been more important to you guys than Pedro, but like Bernie Williams in the 90's, no one's noticing.

[Pomp]

Originally posted by Bozidar
Wakefield is better than "up and down his whole career". For the last 3 years he's been brilliant. IMO, he's been more important to you guys than Pedro, but like Bernie Williams in the 90's, no one's noticing.

"You guys?" That sounds like you think I am a Sox fan. Yuck.

Anyway, I wouldn't call a 4.09 ERA brilliant, but Wakefield has been good over the past 3 years. However, if you look at his career numbers, he has a lifetime 4.24 ERA. He has 4 years of a + 5.00 ERA, mixed in with some +4.00 ERA, and three -3.00 ERAs. There is definitely some deviation in his numbers, thus up and down.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/wakefti01.shtml

[Wrigley]

Originally posted by Pomp
"You guys?" That sounds like you think I am a Sox fan.

I was about to say the same thing.

[Bozidar]

2001, 2002, and 2003 Wake finished in the top 10 in K's/9 innings pitched. 2002 he finished 4th in ERA, and 3rd in whip. He pitched in 125 games over that timeframe (regular season), starting 65 of them.

A 3 year average of a 3.26 ERA as a reliever, and 3.76 as a starter.

Easily the most flexible and reliable guy on your staff.

Yeah, all things considered i'd take that over Pedro's 77 games, and about the same number of innings.

Durable, effective, and flexible.. he's HUGE for the sox. I can't wait for him to retire!!

[Pomp]

Originally posted by Bozidar
2001, 2002, and 2003 Wake finished in the top 10 in K's/9 innings pitched. 2002 he finished 4th in ERA, and 3rd in whip. He pitched in 125 games over that timeframe (regular season), starting 65 of them.

A 3 year average of a 3.26 ERA as a reliever, and 3.76 as a starter.

Easily the most flexible and reliable guy on your staff.

Yeah, all things considered i'd take that over Pedro's 77 games, and about the same number of innings.

Durable, effective, and flexible.. he's HUGE for the sox. I can't wait for him to retire!!

Why do you keep referring to "you guys" and "your staff?" I am not a Sox fan!!

Anyway, I am not debating his effectiveness over the past 3 years. Over the course of his career though, he has been choppy.

[Bozidar]

Right, but i said that for the last 3 years he's basically been your linchpin



(sorry, couldn't help it, i'm on a roll!)

[Bub]

I don't think the staff was over-rated according to what I thought they'd do. The staff was over-rated by a lot of Boston fans though. They have a decent starting 3, a good pen, an overall WHIP of 1.32 and an overall ERA of 4.04. That's not too bad, but expecting better is too optimistic.

[stevethesoxfan]

Martinez -- underperforming. Will never be "God" again. But expect him to bounce back and be one of the better pitchers in the league when all is said and done.

Schilling -- now the #1. Living up to the hype.

Wakefield -- a solid #3 or #4. ERA will probably go up a bit but is a good, reliable horse.

Lowe -- I think now is officially a head case. He's not "done" as he is still healthy and has nasty stuff when on. But it's going to take a different environment. I expect a roller-coaster career. I wouldn't be surprised to see him win 20 again and be totally dominant, sandwiched by a disaster year or two. But for this year, I think he will improve a bit but not be really reliable -- hurts the Sox tremendously.

Arroyo -- I have no complaints. He's a #5 guy. By definition that means he'll probably have good games followed by bad games. Exactly what's happened. I think he'll end up with a 4.50 ERA or so. I'd love him to be better than that, but again, as a #5 that's a lot to ask.

This is a very good rotation IF Pedro improves (he will, I'm sure) and Lowe improves (not sure about that). Count on the Sox getting another arm in June or July.

[Alex]

I don't know if they were overrated. I mean, they are just rather ineffective at the moment. When the season began, the Yankees offense was considered "overrated" because they didn't perform to expectations... it's come around a bit, but considering the hype, anything short of perfection would've made them "overrated".

Schilling has been as advertised. Martinez has been on the decline for the past couple of seasons but he was so good, that it was invevitable, and Lowe will find that median where his level of talent belongs. It was only overrated if the Gammonesque-hype was believed. Which I did not.

[MaineSoxFan]

As previous posters have noted I think that the biggest surprise has been Pedro. Obviously, the Sox were hoping for more from Lowe, not his 2002 numbers but better than the numbers this year. But Pedro has always been the pitcher that the staff could count on, if he can't turn things around it could be tough for the Sox to hope to challenge the Yankees.

[mathos]

I think a bit overrated. In my opinion, I would never call Wakefield a great pitcher, but he has been pretty good the last couple years. I think its the nature of a knuckleballer that he won't ever be consistently on top. That being said, he was absolutely huge for the sox in the playoffs last year. If it wasn't for him, would they have gotten by the A's, even if they did the yanks would have blown the away.

[WakefieldsCrewSox]

Originally posted by Alex
I don't know if they were overrated. I mean, they are just rather ineffective at the moment.

I think this statement is key. Sox pitching is going through a particularly bad stretch right now where their overall ERA has risen by a half run or so. We've used this expression many times over in relation to the Yanks struggles to begin the year, and I'll use it here too...You're never as bad as you are when you're losing, and you're never as good as you are when you're winning. The bullpen misses Williamson dearly right now (Jamie Brown?? I mean, HELLO!) and frankly, the starting numbers couldn't stay down for long with Derek Lower being one of (or perhaps THE) worst statistical starters in the AL. Schilling and Wake are fine, and to be honest I have not been displeased with Arroyo either. He has had a few rough starts but I honestly do think he will get back on track.

As I posted in the game thread last night, Pedro is the one who i question. I have been in the camp of those who say that while he has obviously declined, he is not washed up by any means. And i still don't think he has. But what bothers me is seeing what happened last night. The score was 7-5 and there were men on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out. Suddenly, he begins throwing in the mid nineties and retires the side. He IS capable of throwing the fastball when he needs to. It was obvious watching him that he visibly bore down. But WHY does it take that long for him to do it? Having seen his starts this season I've always thought that it just takes him longer to get warmed up, but now I'm not so sure. Don't get me wrong, when the season is said and done I have full faith his ERA will at least be in the low 3s. But we need a stopper now, and we need for him to step up.

[hugelongtermdeal]

Yes, overrated ... but still too early to call.

I'm holding out some hope that Lowe will pull it together, and become the 4.00 era, 12-14 win guy guy that I'd thought he would be.

I'm also hopeful that Kim might actually contribute before the end of the year ...

[WakefieldsCrewSox]

Actually a good point. Right now I wonder how much worse Kim could possibly be in comparison to DLowe. If he gets right physically (velocity, balance, whatever the **** is wrong) then I would give him another shot.

On that note, doesn't it seem like a good idea that on a day when Lowe is going pretty good (he's been ok through 5 as late) just pull him after 5?? Get the guys confidence back and build up from there.

[KP88]

Overrated? At the begginning of the season, no I don't think so. The top 4 were at least expected to be among the best in the league, and despite the current problems, I still believe they are. Hey, Lowe is 2nd in the league the past 2 years in wins, behind only Halladay. Some may call it luck and he is obviously a headcase, but there has to be some skill in there. The current problems will eventually work themselves out. Pedro will be Pedro, Lowe will at least straighten out, and the 5th starter may remain the wildcard, even though all anyone can ask out of a 5th is 5 decent innings anyway.

[nahzo]

Originally posted by WakefieldsCrewSox
On that note, doesn't it seem like a good idea that on a day when Lowe is going pretty good (he's been ok through 5 as late) just pull him after 5?? Get the guys confidence back and build up from there.

Someone talked about that on ESPN recently, I can't remember who, maybe it was Morgan but I doubt it. I agree, and I think that's whats killing him.

[pacewon]

I don't think it's overrated because before the season I said Lowe sucks and Kim can't pitch in Boston despite Sox fans telling me that Lowe will pitch like it's 2002 (2003 was all Todd Walker's fault, right?) and Kim had good numbers in the past (even though he barely had any AL starts under his belt and has yet to prove himself under any kind of pressure). I'm not the least bit surprised about those two.

I am shocked about Pedro, figured in his walk year he'd be outright unhittable every start. Nobody before the season would have predicted a 4.40 ERA in early June. He's not Pedro anymore.

Schilling doesn't surprise me a bit, I knew he'd be great and know he will continue to be great all season.

Wakefield was somewhat of a wild card, he's a good pitcher but his ERAs the past few years were 4.09, then 2.81, then back up to 3.90, then all the way up to 5.48, etc.

So no, I don't think they're overrated, because I didn't think they were as good as people were touting them before the season in the first place.

[yecul2]

Well, I think it's hard to say that anyone overrated the staff. Of course they did, but that goes without saying. What I mean is that the implosion of Lowe and injury to Kim has skewed things so drastically. Maybe you think Lowe trends downward, but the worst pitcher in baseball? That's huge. Even if you get a pass on Kim, people certainly overrated Arroyo.

By the "up and down" comment about Wakefield, I merely meant that he's streaky. He's a great pitcher, but if he puts up his normal numbers and ends up the 2nd best starter when all is said and done then I would say that things turned out drastically different than what just about anyone would have suspected.

Pedro is, of course, the key. I do think he can get back to form, though his overall numbers will obviously be worse than normal. I dont' know what's wrong with him, but he's off right now. I doubt he'll stay that way.

[flutie22]

lowe will come around...just watch....and for wakefield, he's a dog who will pitch until he's in his mid forties(effectively)