Re-signing Pedro may be risky for Red Sox

[NYYFAN]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4666246/

Pitcher showed Sunday he may have lost dominance

Oh, he can still pitch. That is not the issue, and never will be the issue as long as Pedro Martinez is healthy enough to throw a baseball.

No, the issue is whether Martinez can still dominate. And even though the answer evolved into "yes" in his season-opening loss to the Orioles — "yes" on a cold, windy night when Martinez needed 47 pitches to get through the first two innings — the issue will remain sensitive until the Red Sox decide whether to award him a contract extension.

[KeepClaussen]

how many "pedro is throwing 1mph lower on avg and allowed 2ER in his first start, Clearly he is done" articles really need to be written?

Mussinia allowed 5ER in his first start stick a fork in him. Halladay got shelled the Jays should have never given him that longterm contract. Oswalt allowed 4ERs today Kerry Wood gave up 4ERs in 5 innings.

Pedro had the best opening day start of any of the elite starters, yet he gets 100 articles dedicated to how he can no longer dominate?

[ACPS]

Originally posted by KeepClaussen
how many "pedro is throwing 1mph lower on avg and allowed 2ER in his first start, Clearly he is done" articles really need to be written?

Mussinia allowed 5ER in his first start stick a fork in him. Halladay got shelled the Jays should have never given him that longterm contract. Oswalt allowed 4ERs today Kerry Wood gave up 4ERs in 5 innings.

How did Oswalt, Wood, and Halladay perform in ST?

[RedGlare]

Originally posted by KeepClaussen
how many "pedro is throwing 1mph lower on avg and allowed 2ER in his first start, Clearly he is done" articles really need to be written?

more like 5-6 mph
Sure he hit 91... but most of his fastballs clocked in around 88.

[cubswin]

Originally posted by RedGlare
more like 5-6 mph
Sure he hit 91... but most of his fastballs clocked in around 88.

Which is not a difference from many starts last year, especially the beginning of last year, and especially in early innings. If he's throwing 88 consistently come May, in the middle of games, then he's lost about 3 mph. Until then, any speculation is at best premature, at worst just plain wrong.

[KLJ]

martinez is on a roller coaster that just went over the top of the big hill...

if you want to believe that the roller coaster is not going to take a steep dive towards the earth, that's your pipe-dream..

buckle up...

[FourZeroSix]

Originally posted by KLJ
Martinez is on a roller coaster that just went over the top of the big hill...

if you want to believe that the roller coaster is not going to take a steep dive towards the earth, that's your pipe-dream..

buckle up...

Pedro coming back to earth would mean that he'll be much more dominant the next time he pitches. The man has had seven straight seasons with an ERA under 2.90. An ERA under 2.40 the last five. He's led MLB in ERA five times (1.90, 2.07, 1.74, 2.26, 2.22). He's got the 2nd best ERA since 1945 (min: 2000 IP). It isn't as if he's some guy who's enjoyed mild success and is ready to come back down. No, he's a first ballot HOF who will also add 200 wins and 3,000 K's to his resume in the next couple of years. Cumulatively, he's been the best pitcher in baseball over the last 7 years. Despite, for whatever reason, getting the "choker" label, he's 4-1 with a 3.10 ERA in the postseason. I'd say he compares favorably looking at Clemens, Maddux and Unit's postseason numbers. The Mark Prior era will be on hold for just one more year even though he's nipping.

[KLJ]

Originally posted by FourZeroSix


Pedro coming back to earth would mean that he'll be much more dominant the next time he pitches. The man has had seven straight seasons with an ERA under 2.90. An ERA under 2.40 the last five. He's led MLB in ERA five times (1.90, 2.07, 1.74, 2.26, 2.22). He's got the 2nd best ERA since 1945 (min: 2000 IP). It isn't as if he's some guy who's enjoyed mild success and is ready to come back down. No, he's a first ballot HOF who will also add 200 wins and 3,000 K's to his resume in the next couple of years. Cumulatively, he's been the best pitcher in baseball over the last 7 years. I think the Mark Prior era will be on hold for just one more year even though he's nipping.

martinez's hill was quite high... i agree with that.. he had a nice ride to the top... unfortunately it's time to put your hands up an scream... it's going to be scary...

[FourZeroSix]

Originally posted by KLJ

martinez's hill was quite high... i agree with that.. he had a nice ride to the top... unfortunately it's time to put your hands up an scream... it's going to be scary...

What makes you say that?

[FourZeroSix]

Some of you may believe that I have my dark Pedro shades on right now as I type all this, but this is my honest opinion. I'm not so out of touch with reality that I'd say Pedro wasn't a better pitcher when he threw mid-90s or that he's the same pitcher today. However, what I saw in the final four innings of Sunday night's game is the same Pedro that I've watched the last two years... the same one who led the ML in ERA both times and the same one that has reinvented himself.


...and for the record, I don't like that little Yankee logo below my screen name at all. It's frightening.

[BoSoxGirl75]

...and for the record, I don't like that little Yankee logo below my screen name at all. It's frightening.

You are on a Yankee fan site. What do you expect?! They don't need to do anything to please any non-Yankee fans, because this is their site.

I think everyone should give Pedro another start or two before they start saying his career is over though. He is a risk for a long term contract because of potential injuries, but some players are worth the risk. Pedro's "bad" outings like last night are still better than most in baseball. I don't think we should panic just yet, considering Halladay, Wood and Oswalt have gotten lit up as well. I think many Sox fans are over-reacting. The Sox lost 1 game and some of them are acting like we just lost our chance to get to the playoffs. It is pretty annoying.

[FourZeroSix]

Originally posted by BoSoxGirl75


You are on a Yankee fan site. What do you expect?! They don't need to do anything to please any non-Yankee fans, because this is their site.

I think everyone should give Pedro another start or two before they start saying his career is over though. He is a risk for a long term contract because of potential injuries, but some players are worth the risk. Pedro's "bad" outings like last night are still better than most in baseball. I don't think we should panic just yet, considering Halladay, Wood and Oswalt have gotten lit up as well. I think many Sox fans are over-reacting. The Sox lost 1 game and some of them are acting like we just lost our chance to get to the playoffs. It is pretty annoying.

I was being sarcastic.

Everybody is a risk... the Sox gave Nixon a 3 year deal and as soon as he gets to camp they discover a back injury that not even he knew he had.

A Quality Start isn't bad by any means... that's exactly what Pedro gave against the O's. Mussina, Halladay, Wood did not. If Pedro struggles out of the gate AGAIN, then I'll be concerned. But, 40 degree weather, coming off a bad ST, lacking control early, no curveball the entire game... I'll give Pedro the benefit of the doubt. Especially after those four key innings. That is the entire reason I'm optimistic, really. The 1997-2000 standard that Pedro always gets held to is really ridiculous and quite unfair. You first have to understand how brilliant he really was before you hold him to such standards.

[cubswin]

Originally posted by KLJ

martinez's hill was quite high... i agree with that.. he had a nice ride to the top... unfortunately it's time to put your hands up an scream... it's going to be scary...

Wow. Not at all insightful, plus a bad analogy (unless the last 6 years have been the top of his "rollercoaster").

[FourZeroSix]

If you want Pedro to repeat his peak, here's a sample of what you are holding him to:


Game Log: 1999 - Early 2001

04/05/99 - 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
04/10/99 - 7.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
04/15/99 - 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
04/20/99 - 7.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 K
04/25/99 - 9.0 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
05/01/99 - 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 13 K
05/07/99 - 8.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 15 K
05/12/99 - 8.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 15 K
05/18/99 - 7.0 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 11 K
05/23/99 - 6.0 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
05/29/99 - 8.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
06/04/99 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 16 K
06/09/99 - 6.0 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 10 K
06/15/99 - 8.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
06/20/99 - 8.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K
06/26/99 - 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
07/02/99 - 8.0 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
07/07/99 - 8.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 14 K
07/18/99 - 3.2 IP 12 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
08/19/99 - 7.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 11 K
08/24/99 - 8.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 15 K
08/30/99 - 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K
09/04/99 - 8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 15 K
09/10/99 - 9.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 17 K
09/15/99 - 7.0 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 14 K
09/21/99 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 12 K
09/27/99 - 8.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K
04/04/00 - 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 K
04/09/00 - 7.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 12 K
04/15/00 - 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
04/25/00 - 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
04/30/00 - 7.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 K
05/06/00 - 9.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 17 K
05/12/00 - 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 15 K
05/17/00 - 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
05/23/00 - 8.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
05/28/00 - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
06/08/00 - 8.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
06/14/00 - 6.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
06/20/00 - 8.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
06/25/00 - 6.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
07/13/00 - 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
07/18/00 - 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 12 K
07/23/00 - 9.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 15 K
07/28/00 - 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K
08/02/00 - 9.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
08/08/00 - 8.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
08/14/00 - 4.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
08/19/00 - 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K
08/24/00 - 8.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
08/29/00 - 9.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 13 K
09/04/00 - 8.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K
09/09/00 - 7.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
09/14/00 - 7.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
09/20/00 - 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
09/26/00 - 5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
04/02/01 - 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
04/08/01 - 8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 16 K
04/14/01 - 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
04/19/01 - 6.0 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 13 K
04/25/01 - 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 10 K
05/01/01 - 8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 4 BB, 12 K
05/06/01 - 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
05/12/01 - 7.0 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 12 K
05/18/01 - 8.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 12 K
05/24/01 - 8.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 12 K
05/30/01 - 8.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K
06/04/01 - 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K


That's utter NONSENSE. If I ever accomplished something like that...regardless of whether I could do it anymore, I couldn't imagine how big of an ego I'd have. His 1997 Game Log is almost equally as impressive. Sad thing is that until he went down, Pedro was as great as he'd ever been and still just 29. I kind of feel cheated in away to not see what could've been.

[GravyMaster3]

The big deal is that he has definitely lost velocity to his fastball. Just standing back and watching over spring and the other night, you could tell he didn't have his same fastball. If this continues remains to be seen, but I think it is perfectly legitimate that people are questioning his velocity..

[cubswin]

Originally posted by GravyMaster3
The big deal is that he has definitely lost velocity to his fastball. Just standing back and watching over spring and the other night, you could tell he didn't have his same fastball. If this continues remains to be seen, but I think it is perfectly legitimate that people are questioning his velocity..

That's not necessarily true. People have a misonception here about how hard he was throwing last year. I've already stated this a couple times on various threads, so I'm not going to repeat the facts, but suffice it to say, he hasn't thrown mid-90s in a few years. If he is consistently in the high 80s later in the season and alter in games, you will be correct. But for now, it's simply unclear.

[RedGlare]

Originally posted by GravyMaster3
The big deal is that he has definitely lost velocity to his fastball. Just standing back and watching over spring and the other night, you could tell he didn't have his same fastball. If this continues remains to be seen, but I think it is perfectly legitimate that people are questioning his velocity..

I think the big deal was that he was wild within the zone.

And I don't know why Pedro gets to the middle of the season to work on his fastball when Ponsone comes out and throws 94mph

[cubswin]

Originally posted by RedGlare
I think the big deal was that he was wild within the zone.

And I don't know why Pedro gets to the middle of the season to work on his fastball when Ponsone comes out and throws 94mph

I think you're right re. his control. Re. Pedro versus Ponson, it's simple: Pedro isn't that hard a thrower anymore; also, Pedro doesn't need to try to throw 95 to be effective. Ponson is a younger, harder thrower -- and I'd guess he'd get shelled like I would if he came out throwing 89.

[justin32099]

1) Glad to see intelligence is prevailing on the velocity front. There are plenty of flamethrowers that have done nothing--Greg Maddux is a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. Does he ever throw above 90?

2) It is absolutely true, Pedro is not ever going to duplicate 1999-2001. He was absolutely dominant. He has passed his prime, that is absolutely true, but there is absolutely no evidence that he is about to reach some sort of precipice. PECOTA has this as his five-year projection, in terms of wins above replacement value over a 162-game season, based on other pitchers judged to be in similar circumstances:

2002 (actual): 6.5
2003 (actual): 7.0
2004: 6.8
2005: 4.2
2006: 4.8
2007: 4.8
2008: 3.9

They're predicting Pedro to be a top-10 pitcher until 2007. That Pedro is not worth $17 million a year, but he is worth $13-15 and he has said he will take a pay cut to stay with the Sox. He is a smart man and understands that his future value is not as high as his past performance.

[FourZeroSix]

People make way too big of a deal about the "1997-2001 Pedro"...they almost act as if he's completely lost it. There really isn't all too much of a difference. He's almost just as good at preventing runs from scoring.

The only real difference is his durability, not his dominance. In 1997-2000 Pedro could go 9 really anytime it was asked of him. If his manager wasn't named Jimy Williams Pedro probably coul've had 10 CG's each in '98-'00. Seriously. He threw 241 IP with 13 CG just the year before coming to Boston under Felipe Alou. Under Williams he threw 234 IP with 3 CG in 1998.

Anyway, back to the point: The last two seasons Pedro has been really as brilliant of a pitcher as you can ask of a guy who has a partially torn labrum and being a former power pitcher. He's as dominant, just not as consistent and he strikes out fewer batters. His longest scoreless inning streak came in 2002, not 1997-2001. For a guy who apparently breaks down by the end of the year, he sure finished strong last season:

09/05/03 - 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
09/10/03 - 8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
09/16/03 - 9.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
09/21/03 - 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 K
09/26/03 - 3.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

In fact, in 2002-2003, Pedro is 20-4 with a 1.61 ERA in July-September.

Over the last 2 full seasons he's 34-8, 2.24 ERA and an average of 193 IP with 42 Quality Starts. He's given up more than 3 ER six times.

Anybody who thinks his "dominance is over" because of a quality start in 40 degree temperatures where it was impossible to throw a breaking ball is fooling themselves. It's laughable.

[yogibuck]

in the ALCS last year.

He is definitely not the same pitcher (healthy)?

He may very well still be a great pitcher, but he is NO WHERES near as dominant.

The Redsox realize this, that is why they are holding him back so much (treating him with kid gloves).

[FourZeroSix]

Originally posted by yogibuck
in the ALCS last year.

He is definitely not the same pitcher (healthy)?

He may very well still be a great pitcher, but he is NO WHERES near as dominant.

The Redsox realize this, that is why they are holding him back so much (treating him with kid gloves).

Yeah, I noticed he was throwing 89 consistently in Game 7, and what happened? He shut the Yankees down. People are so obsessed with the box score, look at it after 7 innings. Pedro was dominant. There are no two ways about it. He dominated despite having a hard time cracking 90. They scored 60% of their runs after he'd already crossed 110 pitches. In the 7th and 8th he was throwing 95. Pedro was still so much more dominant than anyone in the AL last season that closest guy to challenge him for the ERA title was Tim Hudson at 2.70.

Whenever Pedro had a rocky outing last year, he cameback with a fury in the following games.

04/12/03 - 4.1IP, 9 H, 10 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

04/17/03 - 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
04/22/03 - 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 6 BB, 8 K
04/27/03 - 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
05/03/03 - 9.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K

06/26/03 - 6.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 8 K

07/02/03 - 7.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
07/07/03 - 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K
07/12/03 - 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
07/20/03 - 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

08/30/03 - 4.0 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3K

09/05/03 - 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
09/10/03 - 8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
09/16/03 - 9.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
09/21/03 - 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 K

He still finished with a 2.22 ERA.... LOL

Don't be shocked if he's working on a shutout this Saturday.

[RedGlare]

Originally posted by FourZeroSix
Yeah, I noticed he was throwing 89 consistently in Game 7,

He didn't say anything about mph. At least so far Pedro has lost his ability to slice the corner of the plate.
Any and EVER pitcher needs to get ahead of batter to be effective. He kept falling behind the O's batters.
I think Pedro got a lot of help in those innings where he "settled down" The O's first pitch grounded out a few times vs someone who was clearly struggling to find the zone and not working him. Pedro had a bunch of WPs and almost hit 3 batters during the game.

If he want to become effective again he will need to regain that control.

[Doc's Private Stash]

Originally posted by RedGlare

If he want to become effective again he will need to regain that control.

You're kidding with that statement, right? "If he wants to become effective AGAIN"??? This is the most effective pitcher in all of baseball for 6...7 years running now! I think he's earned at LEAST the benefit of the doubt on an opening day start in 40 degree weather when he didn't even pitch that badly to begin with. The sad thing about Pedro now and for the rest of his career is that he'll always be held up to the standard he created for himself during his peak years. Though this may be a legitimate framework for analyzing "Pedro the playter," it's also incredibly unfair to hold him (or anybody, really) to that standard of dominance for the entirety of his career.

Post-injury he is absolutely a new pitcher- he's had to adjust because he physically can't go out there and blow everyone away anymore and still have a shoulder left by year's end. But this is precisely what is so incredible about Pedro. He's so good, he's been able to evolve into a completely different pitcher- one who relies on change of speed and location vs. an overpowering heater- without really missing a beat at the Major League level. There aren't too many guys in history that have accomplished that at any point in their career, let alone at the level Pedro has. Obviously Pedro's cloak of invincibility isn't the same now, and he lets a lot more people on base, but until any of this translates into people actually scoring against him and beating him with any regularity, it seems a bit pointless to wax poetic about a "decline."

[Dooley Womack]

Originally posted by cubswin



Which is not a difference from many starts last year, especially the beginning of last year, and especially in early innings. If he's throwing 88 consistently come May, in the middle of games, then he's lost about 3 mph. Until then, any speculation is at best premature, at worst just plain wrong.

\

If he throws 88 in May then he's lost 7-8 mph, not 3. IF that happenes I'd say what many scouts are already hinting at - that he has a bad arm. The word on the street is that he's also uncharacteristically dropping his shoulder, and he only does that when his arm is injured. I hate to wish this on anybody, but given the character that he's shown himself to be, better him than another.

[Dooley Womack]

Originally posted by FourZeroSix
Some of you may believe that I have my dark Pedro shades on right now as I type all this, but this is my honest opinion. I'm not so out of touch with reality that I'd say Pedro wasn't a better pitcher when he threw mid-90s or that he's the same pitcher today. However, what I saw in the final four innings of Sunday night's game is the same Pedro that I've watched the last two years... the same one who led the ML in ERA both times and the same one that has reinvented himself.


...and for the record, I don't like that little Yankee logo below my screen name at all. It's frightening.

Hey! Wear that logo well, as Clemens, Lyle and Boggs did when we FINALLY got them a ring. You're in good company.

[cubswin]

Originally posted by Dooley Womack
\

If he throws 88 in May then he's lost 7-8 mph, not 3. IF that happenes I'd say what many scouts are already hinting at - that he has a bad arm. The word on the street is that he's also uncharacteristically dropping his shoulder, and he only does that when his arm is injured. I hate to wish this on anybody, but given the character that he's shown himself to be, better him than another.

Since '99, yes. Since last year, no. He wasn't throwing 96 last year, except in rare cases late in the year.

[NDBoston]

7 2/3 7 strike outs 1 ER 4 hits

Pedro looked like Pedro

[YankeePride1967]

While Pedro is not the same Pedro as from 1999-01, the reports of his demise are as absurd as that of the 2004 Yankees.

[OilCan]

Originally posted by NDBoston
7 2/3 7 strike outs 1 ER 4 hits

Pedro looked like Pedro

Pedro says FU to the haters.

[FourZeroSix]

Ha, I told you.

Pedro can do anything he wants aslong as he's the Best Pitcher in Baseball. Keep ignoring the media, Petey. Let them talk about how horrible you were tonight....LMAO

Did you hear it?

"PEEEDRO!....PEEEDRO.....PEEEDRO...."

Senor 6 Inning outduels and outlasts Mr. 9 Inning Halladay.

Little Pedro = 2 quality starts, 1.98 ERA...never breaking 91.

[ACPS]

I wonder what Shaugnessy's column will be about tommorow.

[stevethesoxfan]

Hey, let's not forget the title of this thread. I would love to see #45 continue to pitch like tonight too, but is he worth $15-17M/yr for 4 years?

I would sign him in a heartbeat for that amount for 2 years, but I don't know about a 3rd or 4th year at that much cash. It has to be based on incentives.

The point is not "can he pitch at 88-90 MPH?". It is obvious he can. But what if he gets hurt again 2 years from now and can't even hit 87? That's the risk.

I don't envy Theo at all on this one. It's like betting it all on red or black at a roulette wheel. If you win, you win big. If you lose, ouch...

[FourZeroSix]

Originally posted by stevethesoxfan
Hey, let's not forget the title of this thread. I would love to see #45 continue to pitch like tonight too, but is he worth $15-17M/yr for 4 years?

I would sign him in a heartbeat for that amount for 2 years, but I don't know about a 3rd or 4th year at that much cash. It has to be based on incentives.

The point is not "can he pitch at 88-90 MPH?". It is obvious he can. But what if he gets hurt again 2 years from now and can't even hit 87? That's the risk.

I don't envy Theo at all on this one. It's like betting it all on red or black at a roulette wheel. If you win, you win big. If you lose, ouch...

If Pedro can stay at 87-90.. which he should have no problem doing if he stays relatively healthy (he's only 32), then I would sign him in a heartbeat. He hasn't had a shoulder injury since 2001 and has led the ML in ERA the last two seasons. He turned a near disaster into a quality start last Sunday and was absolutely dominant tonight. He continues to amaze me with what he can do with such an average body.

[cubswin]

Originally posted by ACPS
I wonder what Shaugnessy's column will be about tommorow.

probably that Pedro gave up some hard-hit balls and was lucky they were at people or that his fielders made good plays...

[cubswin]

Originally posted by stevethesoxfan
Hey, let's not forget the title of this thread. I would love to see #45 continue to pitch like tonight too, but is he worth $15-17M/yr for 4 years?

I would sign him in a heartbeat for that amount for 2 years, but I don't know about a 3rd or 4th year at that much cash. It has to be based on incentives.

The point is not "can he pitch at 88-90 MPH?". It is obvious he can. But what if he gets hurt again 2 years from now and can't even hit 87? That's the risk.

I don't envy Theo at all on this one. It's like betting it all on red or black at a roulette wheel. If you win, you win big. If you lose, ouch...

I think you pay him whatever market is (I don't think anything over $15) for top pitchers, for at least 3 years. If he demands 4, that's a bit tougher call - probably need to do something more creative.

[YankeePride1967]

Why do I get the feeling that anytime Pedro looks a bit shaky the ones that think he's done will revive this and anytime he pitches like last night the Pedro fans will say sign him now!

[roary]

Originally posted by GoRocket
Why do I get the feeling that anytime Pedro looks a bit shaky the ones that think he's done will revive this and anytime he pitches like last night the Pedro fans will say sign him now!

Sign him now!

[FourZeroSix]

Originally posted by GoRocket
Why do I get the feeling that anytime Pedro looks a bit shaky the ones that think he's done will revive this and anytime he pitches like last night the Pedro fans will say sign him now!

It's just too funny. He allowed 2 ER in 6 IP without having a curveball and that is a "rocky outing"... SportsCenter guy even said last night: "When he was beaten badly by Baltimore on Opening Night."

You know what? Keep the Doom and Gloom predictions coming, Pedro has been proving people wrong his entire life. He'll continue to prove people wrong all the way to Cooperstown. Can't hit 'em at 98, can't hit 'em at 88... Damn, he must be Great.

[YankeePride1967]

Originally posted by FourZeroSix


It's just too funny. He allowed 2 ER in 6 IP without having a curveball and that is a "rocky outing"... SportsCenter guy even said last night: "When he was beaten badly by Baltimore on Opening Night."

You know what? Keep the Doom and Gloom predictions coming, Pedro has been proving people wrong his entire life. He'll continue to prove people wrong all the way to Cooperstown. Can't hit 'em at 98, can't hit 'em at 88... Damn, he must be Great.

And if you look back, you will see that I was the one backing Pedro in this matter. However, I look at the player vs. himself in the past as a barameter and Pedro is not the player he was from 99-01, however any one who says they wouldn't want him on their team is foolish. When you compare Pedro of the first two innings last Sunday night to the Pedro of a few years ago, that was a "bad" outing according to Pedro standards. But it is foolish to say he's "done" or the like.

[FourZeroSix]

Originally posted by GoRocket


And if you look back, you will see that I was the one backing Pedro in this matter. However, I look at the player vs. himself in the past as a barameter and Pedro is not the player he was from 99-01, however any one who says they wouldn't want him on their team is foolish. When you compare Pedro of the first two innings last Sunday night to the Pedro of a few years ago, that was a "bad" outing according to Pedro standards. But it is foolish to say he's "done" or the like.

I'm tired of hearing that he's not the same pitcher. People have no clue just how unfair of a comparison that is to make...no idea. Pedro has a 1.98 ERA right now... I think I'll take it.

He's facing Baltimore Thursday night. I'm saying right now that they are dead men walking.

[YankeePride1967]

Originally posted by FourZeroSix


I'm tired of hearing that he's not the same pitcher. People have no clue just how unfair of a comparison that is to make...no idea. Pedro has a 1.98 ERA right now... I think I'll take it.

He's facing Baltimore Thursday night. I'm saying right now that they are dead men walking.

You may be tired of hearing it, but it doesn't change the fact of the matter. He has been more injury prone and take a look at the game thread higher in the thread about him. Yes, I'd take a 1.98 ERA as it is now, but it's two games. To say he is not the same pitcher as 99-01 (the three most dominant years in the history of the game in my opinion) is hardly an insult or a put down, NO pitcher active is the same kind of pitcher as he was during that time period. Obviously anyone would take Pedro on his team, that is irrelevant to the argument.

[FourZeroSix]

Originally posted by GoRocket


You may be tired of hearing it, but it doesn't change the fact of the matter. He has been more injury prone and take a look at the game thread higher in the thread about him. Yes, I'd take a 1.98 ERA as it is now, but it's two games. To say he is not the same pitcher as 99-01 (the three most dominant years in the history of the game in my opinion) is hardly an insult or a put down, NO pitcher active is the same kind of pitcher as he was during that time period. Obviously anyone would take Pedro on his team, that is irrelevant to the argument.

Saying Pedro is not the same pitcher is a putdown IMO. It is repeating the obvious over and over in attempt to belittle him. So he's not the same pitcher... Wow, and he still led Major League Baseball in ERA the last two seasons. What kind of argument is that if he's still the Best Pitcher in Baseball? Who needs a 98 mph heater.. Pedro sure as hell doesn't.

[YankeePride1967]

Originally posted by FourZeroSix


Saying Pedro is not the same pitcher is a putdown IMO. It is repeating the obvious over and over in attempt to belittle him. So he's not the same pitcher... Wow, and he still led Major League Baseball in ERA the last two seasons. What kind of argument is that if he's still the Best Pitcher in Baseball? Who needs a 98 mph heater.. Pedro sure as hell doesn't.

So if I say that Lou Gehrig is not as good as Babe Ruth I'm putting Gehrig down? Pedro is not the same pitcher as 99-01, the facts are the facts, if you choose to call that "belittling" him, that's your interpretation and not as anyone would mean it. Being the best pitcher in baseball (which I agree with) is once again irrelevant to him being the Pedro of 99-01 which he is very clearly not. The 98 MPH fastball which you keep mentioning (I never have) is also irrelevant. You seem to be arguing with yourself here. Maybe being a Sox fan you seem to be a bit over-sensitive about it, but I don't know what I can say. Maybe if I say Pedro is perfect in every way possible that will make you happy? Good grief.

[FourZeroSix]

Originally posted by GoRocket
Pedro is not the same pitcher as 99-01, the facts are the facts,

I'm not arguing that he is! I'm simply tired of hearing the obvious over and over again. I'm sorry to say but the difference isn't all too great. People act like his ERA has actually been above 2.30 the last couple of years.

[OilCan]

I don't think saying he's not the same pitcher he was in 99-00 is a putdown at all. No one active today is as good as he was in 99-01. Very few pitchers in history were as good as that.

His ERA+ in 1999 was 245. His ERA+ in 2000 was 285. His WHIP in 2000 was 0.73. His K/9 in 1999 was 13. Those are insane numbers. Historic numbers.

He's still the best pitcher in baseball now, imo. Some people have said he's gone from a power pitcher to a finesse pitcher. While that may be true (I'm not sure I agree, I think he's both), I'll take performances like last nights every start with no problem at all.

I'm just glad I had a chance to see him pitch in person in 1999 and 2000, when he was one of the best in history. I'm glad my two sons were able to see him in person as well.

[FourZeroSix]

Originally posted by OilCan
I don't think saying he's not the same pitcher he was in 99-00 is a putdown at all. No one active today is as good as he was in 99-01. Very few pitchers in history were as good as that.

His ERA+ in 1999 was 245. His ERA+ in 2000 was 285. His WHIP in 2000 was 0.73. His K/9 in 1999 was 13. Those are insane numbers. Historic numbers.

He's still the best pitcher in baseball now, imo. Some people have said he's gone from a power pitcher to a finesse pitcher. While that may be true (I'm not sure I agree, I think he's both), I'll take performances like last nights every start with no problem at all.

I'm just glad I had a chance to see him pitch in person in 1999 and 2000, when he was one of the best in history. I'm glad my two sons were able to see him in person as well.

A finesse pitcher who has led the league in K/9 IP the last two seasons...LOL

[OilCan]

Originally posted by FourZeroSix


A finesse pitcher who has led the league in K/9 IP the last two seasons...LOL

As I said, I think he's both. He's always been both. He has four pitches he can throw for strikes at any time in the count. That's four out pitches, not one or two. You can't pigeonhole him as a "power" pitcher only.

[FourZeroSix]

Originally posted by OilCan


As I said, I think he's both. He's always been both. He has four pitches he can throw for strikes at any time in the count. That's four out pitches, not one or two. You can't pigeonhole him as a "power" pitcher only.

If Pedro is as effective with his pitches as he was last night (first pitch strikes), then it will be awfully hard to tell 1999 from 2004 looking at IP and ERA. Pedro is not as durable...fact. However, by not wasting pitches and making each count, he can go just as deep into games as he used to. He could probably even do a little better than Saturday night when he pitched 7 2/3 with 106. He said in ST he should be able to throw complete games with 110 pitches. Look at Halladay and Pedro's pitches per start from 2003. The difference is 3.

[OilCan]

Originally posted by FourZeroSix


If Pedro is as effective with his pitches as he was last night (first pitch strikes), then it will be awfully hard to tell 1999 from 2004 looking at IP and ERA. Pedro is not as durable...fact. However, by not wasting pitches and making each count, he can go just as deep into games as he used to. He could probably even do a little better than Saturday night when he pitched 7 2/3 with 106. He said in ST he should be able to throw complete games with 110 pitches. Look at Halladay and Pedro's pitches per start from 2003. The difference is 3.

Good points.

If at the end of the year, it's "hard to tell 1999 from 2004", I'll be one happy guy.