Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Michael Bourn

[tranquility]

Lefthand-hitting, basestealing, leadoff-type outfielders born within a nine-month span in 1982-83.

Gardner has been valued at 7.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and counting over the past two seasons (2.2 and 4.9+).

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9927&position=OF

Bourn has been valued at 7.4 WAR and counting over the last two seasons (4.3 and 3.1+).

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6387&position=OF

Ellsbury gets a mulligan for this season, but over the two previous seasons Ellsbury was valued at 6.6 WAR (3.9 and 2.7).

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF

Over those two-year spans, Gardner has 66 stolen bases in 238 games, Bourn has 107 stolen bases in 286 games and Ellsbury had 120 stolen bases in 298 games.

Here are UZR outfielder rankings for 2008-09:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=11

... and for 2009-10:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2010&month=11

Gardner remains under his team's control for another four seasons, Ellsbury for three seasons and Bourn for two seasons.

Which player has the most trade value?

[teknetic]

Ellsbury isn't any good.

[DontHateOnNumber2]

I'd say Gardner for the sole reason that he just seems terribly lucky. Ellsbury was Boston hype. Bourn can turn ice cold in a moment. I never recalled any notable praise about Gardner outside of Baseball America Prospect Handbooks saying he had the best speed and plate discipline a few years ago. He's on a team where he can get driven in plenty, which means he doesn't have to steal as much as the others in my opinion, and likewise he gets the opportunity to drive guys in due to players like Curtis Granderson or Derek Jeter (2010 season aside) batting before or after him.

[delv]

counting SB per games played is a poor approach, as Gardner has spent much more of those games as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement.

[Mark19]

Ellsbury had a couple of doubles in the 2007 postseason, thus the sports media dubbed him the next baseball superstar. Since then, he has been horribly mediocre. Gardner is a vastly superior player in every facet except SB totals.

[yankee82093]

WAR per 600 PA's for 2009-2010:

Gardner: 5.4*
Bourn: 3.6

*=!!!!