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Thread: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

  1. #1

    NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    This off-season list is based on a combination of major league potential and performance at the current age. This list is similar to a BA list which incorporates a similar list of values including scouting reports on the players.

    The list of variables are: Organizational rank; Name; primary position expected in the majors as of today; level played in the minors this year; age +/- at June 30th this year; For position players (avg/slg%/On base plus slg%) For Pitchers (Innings pitched;K/9,BB/9; ERA); Prospect Ceiling, A+ = Perennial All-Star (e. g., M. Cabrera); A = All-Star (e. g., Michael Young); A-= Occasional All-Star (e.g., Pettitte); B+ = Above average player/pitcher with a chance for an all-star appearance (e.g., Swisher); B = Above average player (e.g., Ellsbury. Gardner, usually some exceptional skill but lacking five-tool ability, etc); B- = Solid starter; C+ = Starter or top reliever; C = High level utility player, starter on an average to weak team. Probability of reaching majors and potential (joint probability)

    1: Jesus Montero; C; AAA; 21 -5; 289/517/870; A+; 75%
    2: Dellin Betances, SP; A+/AA; 22 +3; 85.33; 11.4; 2.3; 2.11; A+; 65%
    3: Manny Banuelos; SP; A+/AA; 19 +4; 64.67; 11.8; 3.5; 2.51; A+; 60%
    4: Gary Sanchez; C; R/A-; 18 -5; 329/543/936; A+; 45%
    5: Andrew Brackman; SP; A+/AA; 25 -5; 140.67; 8.1; 2.5; 3.90; A; 65%
    6: Brett Marshall; SP; -A/A+; 20 +3; 84; 7.5; 2.8; 2.57; A, 50%
    7a: Graham Stoneburner; SP; A-/A+; 23 -3; 142; 8.7; 2.2; 2.41; A-; 60%
    7b: Adam Warren; SP; A+/AA; 23 -2; 135.33; 8.4; 2.2; 2.59; A-; 60%
    9: Eduardo Nunez; SS/3B/2B; AAA; 23; 289/381/721; C; 100%
    10: Anderson Feliz; 2B; R/A+; 18 +2; 274/439/767; B+; 55%
    11: Ramon Flores; OF/1B/3B; R/A-/A+; 18 +3; 303/419/808; B+; 50%
    12: Austin Romine; C; AA; 22 -5; 268/402/726; C+; 75%
    13: Brandon Laird; 3b/OF; AA/AAA; 23 -2; 281/482/818; B-; 65%
    14: Zoilo Almonte; OF; A-/A+; 21 +1; 269/424/755; C+; 65%
    15: JR Murphy; C; A-; 19 +2; 255/376/703; C+; 60
    16: Slade Heathcott; CF; A-; 20 -3; 258/352/712; B+; 40%
    17 Ivan Nova *** ; SP; AAA; 23 +6; 145; 7.1; 3.0; 2.86; B; ? ***
    18: Melky Mesa; OF; A+; 23 +5; 260/475/813; B+ 35%
    19: Thomas Kahnle; RP; A-; 21 -1; 16; 14.1; 2.8; 0.56; C+; 50%
    20: Cito Culver; SS; R/A-; 18 -2; 251/330/655; B -; 40%

    Ivan Nova is being investigated by MLB for performance enhancing substances.

    Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.

  2. #2

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Noesi?

  3. #3

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by yankee82093
    Noesi?
    Phelps a much bigger omission than Noesi. Also Jose Ramirez, Adams, CoJo, Bryan Mitchell have some beef to varying degrees. one of the perils of having a loaded system

  4. #4

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    My opinions-

    I don't think ranking Marshall ahead of Stoneburner or Warren is right in terms of both actual production (even accounting for TJ surgery) or in stuff. I wouldn't put Marshall in the top 10- yet.

    IMO, Nunez, Feliz and Flores should all be about 5 spots lower- and Nunez might even be a full 10 too high. While Feliz and Flores likely have unrealized upside, I think what we see with Nunez is what we get- which might be a league average SS as upside, with a higher probability of less than that.

    Romine, even with the second half slump, is top 10 because he projects to be an above average ML C- even with Montero in the system, C who can hit have real value.

    I would not put Culver or Kahnle on any list yet- neither have played full-season ball, so the sample size of work is too small to make any real judgments about them. Talent is not the question, especially with top 5 round picks- the question is whether the production will match the tools when the full season grind is put to the test.

    Murphy and Heathcott have to move up significantly. Murphy showed VERY good OBP skills (especially when accounting for age) and got in some good work at C. Heathcott showed decent OBP skills, and VERY good defensive work. The rest of the package is a work in progress, but he should be top 10 now.

    Nova should move up about 6-8 spots. Even if he's a reliever, he's ML ready with a power arm. I don't think the investigation goes anywhere unless they find some positive tests.

    Mesa should also move up- there probably is not a hitter in the system who can match his power/speed combination- and he finally put it together- and is a fine defensive OF to boot. I'd rank him around 11, with the caveat that a season like this in AA next year would make him a top 5 guy.

    Finally, Laird, even with the AAA struggles, is probably a 8-9 guy on the list. At worst, he's good bench depth at 3B, 1b and hopefully, OF, assuming they try him out there in the AFL. At best, he is a useful trade chip this winter to get a valuable player.

  5. #5

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Did you do the grading and %? I actually have no problem with Marshall being high on lists, he's got good stuff, 6th is alittle much but 10th wouldn't be bad. Joseph has to be on the list.

  6. #6
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    We've had this fight before, but: your top 20 list includes six pitchers to whom you give "ceiling" grades of A+, A, or A-. A- is pegged at Andy Pettitte, a borderline Hall of Fame pitcher, according to your rankings. To take an example, you give Manny Banuelos 'A+' potential and a 60% chance of reaching the majors/his potential (those two things seem very different to me).

    Overall, you give 6 pitchers a ranking of A- or better with 50% or better chance of whatever it is that chance represents. So is that a statement that you think it more likely that Dellin Betances Manny Banuelos, Andrew Brackman, Brett Marshall, Graham Stoneburner, and Adam Warren will be better or as good as Andy Pettitte than them not being as good as Andy Pettitte?

    Or, put another way - are you saying that Manny Banuelos is more likely to be as valuable as Miguel Cabrera than he is to fail to be so? Or am I misunderstanding?

    Be seeing you,

    Saxmania
    Last edited by Saxmania; 09-08-10 at 12:04 PM.
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  7. #7
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Warren and Phelps should be ahead of Marshall right now. This may change by June of 2011, but right now Marshall is too high. Stoneburner also should be ahead of Marshall.

    Suttle belongs near the bottom of the top 20, probably in the 16-18 range. And Mesa belongs just outside the top 20. Like Matsui55 said, his combo of power and speed, as well as a real live arm in the OF is rare among guys in the Minors. And a light went off this year. Maybe he finally "clicked'.

    I am also an advocate of not rating guys until they play full season ball. It is a whole different animal as compared to College, HS, or SS ball.

    Your percentages baffle me. How much weight is toward potential, and how much toward probability?

  8. #8

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Realistically, none of those pitchers should have a higher probability than 25%.

  9. #9

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    The percentages seem to be a balance of potential and likelihood of reaching the majors. So for example Montero has a near 100% chance of making the majors, however he has maybe a 50% chance of reaching his potential. I don't agree with the estimates , but I believe that's how he calculated this percentage.

    I think the approach is interesting and I actually tried something similar recently, but the problem is the approach is a based on mere estimates of a players potential and likelihood to succeed. So just like any approach to evaluating prospects it is highly flawed given the volatility of these young players and the bias involved with estimates of potential and probability of success. In theory an approach like this could potentially be a better way to evaluate prospects than the more "traditional" approaches but it depends how reasonable your estimates are. In this case I think many of the estimates are off which produces a questionnable list. That said having tried something similiar myself its a very difficult approach to execute.

  10. #10
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by Saxmania
    We've had this fight before, but: your top 20 list includes six pitchers to whom you give "ceiling" grades of A+, A, or A-. A- is pegged at Andy Pettitte, a borderline Hall of Fame pitcher, according to your rankings. To take an example, you give Manny Banuelos 'A+' potential and a 60% chance of reaching the majors/his potential (those two things seem very different to me).

    Overall, you give 6 pitchers a ranking of A- or better with 50% or better chance of whatever it is that chance represents. So is that a statement that you think it more likely that Dellin Betances Manny Banuelos, Andrew Brackman, Brett Marshall, Graham Stoneburner, and Adam Warren and will be better or as good as Andy Pettitte than them not being as good as Andy Pettitte?

    Or, put another way - are you saying that Manny Banuelos is more likely to be as valuable as Miguel Cabrera than he is to fail to be so? Or am I misunderstanding?

    Be seeing you,

    Saxmania
    Yep, you nailed it.

    So let's see that is two A+'s, two A's and two A-'s.

    So that makes for a starting rotation in a few years of two Roy Halladay types, two healthy Chris Carpenter types, and two Andy Pettitte types. And a B who is that a John Lackey? Not to mention Phil Hughes somewhere in the mix. Gee where are all these guys going to pitch?

    We are all excited, but let's not get crazy. Let's cross our fingers and hope that one of these guys actually works out to be an All Star. Not seven of them.
    "Long Island is New Jersey with a GED." - Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.

  11. #11

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    roy halladay is smalltime. killer b's will be the next clemens, randy johnson and pedro.
    oy vey

  12. #12

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    They're extremely nonsensical numbers. The chance of anybody reaching their ceiling is going to be < 20% (with few exceptions) and their probability of reaching majors at most can be 100%. Taking an average of those numbers doesn't making mathematical sense and multiplying them to get a conditional probability should rarely go over 50% and should be in the 10-15% range for the good ones.

  13. #13

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    [quote=Matsui55]My opinions-

    I would not put Culver or Kahnle on any list yet- neither have played full-season ball, so the sample size of work is too small to make any real judgments about them. Talent is not the question, especially with top 5 round picks- the question is whether the production will match the tools when the full season grind is put to the test.

    quote]

    Considering this, what do you do with Sanchez? He obviously had better numbers than either Culver or Kahnle, but the sample size was the same and he only played short season ball. He is obviously a much better prospect and has a higher ceiling than Culver, but based on your criteria both should be considered the same. Kahnle shouldn't be in this discussion or on this list. No current reliever should be after the season the Yankees have had with their prospects. There is just too much in the line of starters and position players to warrant a reliever to be considered.

  14. #14
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Lists are mostly subjective, so I can't really dog your rankings, but I will say that Corban Joseph should be in any Yankee top 20, especially over a guy like Feliz who I think you ranked very aggressively. David Adams is also a step or two higher on the depth chart, imo.

    I don't understand why you chose to list SLG over OBP...why not list both and save people the subtraction? If you're going to list one, OBP is the better one to go with, especially for minor leaguers. Power is usually one of the last things to develop; I'm more concerned with a young guy's discpline at the plate and ability to get on base.

    Beyond that, it feels like you almost intentionally make things more complicated than they need to be. These %'s mean virtually nothing without some raw data to look at to see how you arrived at them. The correlation between these %'s and the letter grades is also very murky, and probably needs some further explanation to have any value whatsoever to the reader.

  15. #15

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by Matsui55
    My opinions-

    I don't think ranking Marshall ahead of Stoneburner or Warren is right in terms of both actual production (even accounting for TJ surgery) or in stuff. I wouldn't put Marshall in the top 10- yet.

    IMO, Nunez, Feliz and Flores should all be about 5 spots lower- and Nunez might even be a full 10 too high. While Feliz and Flores likely have unrealized upside, I think what we see with Nunez is what we get- which might be a league average SS as upside, with a higher probability of less than that.

    Romine, even with the second half slump, is top 10 because he projects to be an above average ML C- even with Montero in the system, C who can hit have real value.

    I would not put Culver or Kahnle on any list yet- neither have played full-season ball, so the sample size of work is too small to make any real judgments about them. Talent is not the question, especially with top 5 round picks- the question is whether the production will match the tools when the full season grind is put to the test.

    Murphy and Heathcott have to move up significantly. Murphy showed VERY good OBP skills (especially when accounting for age) and got in some good work at C. Heathcott showed decent OBP skills, and VERY good defensive work. The rest of the package is a work in progress, but he should be top 10 now.

    Nova should move up about 6-8 spots. Even if he's a reliever, he's ML ready with a power arm. I don't think the investigation goes anywhere unless they find some positive tests.

    Mesa should also move up- there probably is not a hitter in the system who can match his power/speed combination- and he finally put it together- and is a fine defensive OF to boot. I'd rank him around 11, with the caveat that a season like this in AA next year would make him a top 5 guy.

    Finally, Laird, even with the AAA struggles, is probably a 8-9 guy on the list. At worst, he's good bench depth at 3B, 1b and hopefully, OF, assuming they try him out there in the AFL. At best, he is a useful trade chip this winter to get a valuable player.
    Yes, catchers who can hit have real value, but Romine hasn't really hit all that well since Charleston. I agree that he's top 10, but I'd probably have him in the 7-10 range.

    Shouldn't Slade have to do something besides be a good athlete who can take a pitch before he's in the top 10 of such a good system?

    I'm with you on pretty much everything else. Especially Nova.

  16. #16

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Brackman probably doesn't even have a 65% chance of making the big leagues as a starter. All Star?

  17. #17
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by Hughes2.50
    1: Jesus Montero; C; AAA; 21 -5; 289/517/870; A+; 75%
    2: Dellin Betances, SP; A+/AA; 22 +3; 85.33; 11.4; 2.3; 2.11; A+; 65%
    3: Manny Banuelos; SP; A+/AA; 19 +4; 64.67; 11.8; 3.5; 2.51; A+; 60%
    4: Gary Sanchez; C; R/A-; 18 -5; 329/543/936; A+; 45%
    5: Andrew Brackman; SP; A+/AA; 25 -5; 140.67; 8.1; 2.5; 3.90; A; 65%
    6: Brett Marshall; SP; -A/A+; 20 +3; 84; 7.5; 2.8; 2.57; A, 50%
    7a: Graham Stoneburner; SP; A-/A+; 23 -3; 142; 8.7; 2.2; 2.41; A-; 60%
    7b: Adam Warren; SP; A+/AA; 23 -2; 135.33; 8.4; 2.2; 2.59; A-; 60%
    9: Eduardo Nunez; SS/3B/2B; AAA; 23; 289/381/721; C; 100%
    10: Anderson Feliz; 2B; R/A+; 18 +2; 274/439/767; B+; 55%
    11: Ramon Flores; OF/1B/3B; R/A-/A+; 18 +3; 303/419/808; B+; 50%
    12: Austin Romine; C; AA; 22 -5; 268/402/726; C+; 75%
    13: Brandon Laird; 3b/OF; AA/AAA; 23 -2; 281/482/818; B-; 65%
    14: Zoilo Almonte; OF; A-/A+; 21 +1; 269/424/755; C+; 65%
    15: JR Murphy; C; A-; 19 +2; 255/376/703; C+; 60
    16: Slade Heathcott; CF; A-; 20 -3; 258/352/712; B+; 40%
    17 Ivan Nova *** ; SP; AAA; 23 +6; 145; 7.1; 3.0; 2.86; B; ? ***
    18: Melky Mesa; OF; A+; 23 +5; 260/475/813; B+ 35%
    19: Thomas Kahnle; RP; A-; 21 -1; 16; 14.1; 2.8; 0.56; C+; 50%
    20: Cito Culver; SS; R/A-; 18 -2; 251/330/655; B -; 40%
    are these ranking among Yankees or MLB prospects?

  18. #18

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by Hughes2.50
    This off-season list is based on a combination of major league potential and performance at the current age. This list is similar to a BA list which incorporates a similar list of values including scouting reports on the players.
    The list of variables are: Organizational rank; Name; primary position expected in the majors as of today; level played in the minors this year; age +/- at June 30th this year; For position players (avg/slg%/On base plus slg%) For Pitchers (Innings pitched;K/9,BB/9; ERA); Prospect Ceiling, A+ = Perennial All-Star (e. g., M. Cabrera); A = All-Star (e. g., Michael Young); A-= Occasional All-Star (e.g., Pettitte); B+ = Above average player/pitcher with a chance for an all-star appearance (e.g., Swisher); B = Above average player (e.g., Ellsbury. Gardner, usually some exceptional skill but lacking five-tool ability, etc); B- = Solid starter; C+ = Starter or top reliever; C = High level utility player, starter on an average to weak team. Probability of reaching majors and potential (joint probability)
    1: Jesus Montero; C; AAA; 21 -5; 289/517/870; A+; 75%
    2: Dellin Betances, SP; A+/AA; 22 +3; 85.33; 11.4; 2.3; 2.11; A+; 65%
    3: Manny Banuelos; SP; A+/AA; 19 +4; 64.67; 11.8; 3.5; 2.51; A+; 60%
    4: Gary Sanchez; C; R/A-; 18 -5; 329/543/936; A+; 45%
    5: Andrew Brackman; SP; A+/AA; 25 -5; 140.67; 8.1; 2.5; 3.90; A; 65%
    6: Brett Marshall; SP; -A/A+; 20 +3; 84; 7.5; 2.8; 2.57; A, 50%
    7a: Graham Stoneburner; SP; A-/A+; 23 -3; 142; 8.7; 2.2; 2.41; A-; 60%
    7b: Adam Warren; SP; A+/AA; 23 -2; 135.33; 8.4; 2.2; 2.59; A-; 60%
    9: Eduardo Nunez; SS/3B/2B; AAA; 23; 289/381/721; C; 100%
    10: Anderson Feliz; 2B; R/A+; 18 +2; 274/439/767; B+; 55%
    11: Ramon Flores; OF/1B/3B; R/A-/A+; 18 +3; 303/419/808; B+; 50%
    12: Austin Romine; C; AA; 22 -5; 268/402/726; C+; 75%
    13: Brandon Laird; 3b/OF; AA/AAA; 23 -2; 281/482/818; B-; 65%
    14: Zoilo Almonte; OF; A-/A+; 21 +1; 269/424/755; C+; 65%
    15: JR Murphy; C; A-; 19 +2; 255/376/703; C+; 60
    16: Slade Heathcott; CF; A-; 20 -3; 258/352/712; B+; 40%
    17 Ivan Nova *** ; SP; AAA; 23 +6; 145; 7.1; 3.0; 2.86; B; ? ***
    18: Melky Mesa; OF; A+; 23 +5; 260/475/813; B+ 35%
    19: Thomas Kahnle; RP; A-; 21 -1; 16; 14.1; 2.8; 0.56; C+; 50%
    20: Cito Culver; SS; R/A-; 18 -2; 251/330/655; B -; 40%Ivan Nova is being investigated by MLB for performance enhancing substances.
    Kelvin DeLeon no esta aqui? Also, if you're going to include young SS players, what about Gumbs, Williams, and Y. Calderon?

  19. #19
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Assuming that we can use the letter grades as "potential peak" and the probabilities as "chance of reaching that peak", according to this list:

    - The Yankees would have only a 2.6% chance that none of their 4 A+ prospects on that list would become Miguel Cabrera-level performers (HoF quality)

    - The Yankees would have a 9.8% that all four of their A+ prospects on that list would become Miguel Cabrera-level performers

    - The Yankees would have around a 40% chance that two of the A+ prospects would become Miguel Cabrera-level performers

    Bearing in mind that those 4 prospects include an 18-year-old at Low A and pitchers with just a bit of an injury history makes me think that those probabilities aren't really doing what they're meant to do.

    Be seeing you,

    Saxmania
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  20. #20

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    maybe the % are 1-bust%
    oy vey

  21. #21
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    I still remeber Hughes being viewed as the next Moose.

  22. #22
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by kan_t
    I still remeber Hughes being viewed as the next Moose.
    I still do
    "If we have to, we'll hoard everybody. That's what the Yankees used to do."

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  23. #23

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob420
    Brackman probably doesn't even have a 65% chance of making the big leagues as a starter. All Star?
    Really?

    You might have missed that he's been VERY good in AA after having some adjustment starts. He still has another year of options- which puts him right where he needs to be- he'll be in AAA next year, with a call-up sometime between July and September.

    The bigger question isn't whether he's going to be a SP in the bigs- it is whether the Yanks have a rotation spot for him.

  24. #24

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by kan_t
    I still remeber Hughes being viewed as the next Moose.
    I would hope that Hughes doesn't have to wait 15+ years to have a 20 win season.

  25. #25

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by Matsui55
    Really?

    You might have missed that he's been VERY good in AA after having some adjustment starts. He still has another year of options- which puts him right where he needs to be- he'll be in AAA next year, with a call-up sometime between July and September.

    The bigger question isn't whether he's going to be a SP in the bigs- it is whether the Yanks have a rotation spot for him.
    do you think he starts the year in AAA or something like this year with a start in AA with a move to AAA in say june?

  26. #26

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by mwalvlior
    do you think he starts the year in AAA or something like this year with a start in AA with a move to AAA in say june?
    I think that he goes to AAA- I think that they realize that he has to be accelerated and ready by the end of 2011- that means challenging him to step up in 2011, because in 2012 he's going to spend in the bigs, or he will be lost on waivers. With the rapid adjustment he made to AA this year, I think the Yanks will be very confident in promoting him to AAA next April.

    Remember, the stuff isn't the issue- with him it is command and repeating his delivery- it won't matter much whether he's in AA or AAA with those issues. Either he has the same success in 2011 with command and delivery as he had in 2010, or he's done.

  27. #27

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by primetime714
    The percentages seem to be a balance of potential and likelihood of reaching the majors. So for example Montero has a near 100% chance of making the majors, however he has maybe a 50% chance of reaching his potential. I don't agree with the estimates , but I believe that's how he calculated this percentage.

    I think the approach is interesting and I actually tried something similar recently, but the problem is the approach is a based on mere estimates of a players potential and likelihood to succeed. So just like any approach to evaluating prospects it is highly flawed given the volatility of these young players and the bias involved with estimates of potential and probability of success. In theory an approach like this could potentially be a better way to evaluate prospects than the more "traditional" approaches but it depends how reasonable your estimates are. In this case I think many of the estimates are off which produces a questionnable list. That said having tried something similiar myself its a very difficult approach to execute.
    That isn't exactly what the overall calculation is, yet it is close to it.

    The estimates by their nature are somewhat fluid, and therefore have a wider confidence interval around them, particularly with more entry level prospects.

    Certainly, if one looks at the first four prospects, specifically, we can estimate the possibility one, or more, have of reaching their potential.

    However, unlike some, those estimates are probably less radical than people may think. After all, the Rays look like they are developing their own Flush (with Price, Hellickson, Neiman and Moore; While the Red Sox are building their own with Lester and Buchholz, etc.); so with modern/good talent evaluation such success are not rare.

    Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.

  28. #28

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    A good test of #2 Prospect, SP, Dellin Betances, was as the lead pitcher in the Eastern League Finals against top 25 overall prospect (before the season on Baseball America's top 100) of Phillies' (now Jay's) prospect Kyle Drabek. Here is that boxscore.

    Betances got the win by out-dueling Drabek with a two hitter over 5 and 1/3 innings striking out 8 in the process. We will have a chance to compare Betances with where Pettitte is in his rehab start, along with Yankees # 3 prospect Banuelos. When we consider short samples we look for extreme results (and Betances' had that) to guage if the performances is indicated by the talent expected.

    Last edited by Hughes2.50; 09-09-10 at 02:39 PM.
    Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.

  29. #29

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein lauds #2 prospect, SP, Betances on his first round win last night.

    Dellin Betances, rhp, Yankees (Double-A Trenton): 5.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K

    I can't remember a system having some many pitchers taking a big step forward in one season like this year's Yankees crop, and Betances leads the charge. Finally healthy, the six-foot-eight righty as been nothing short of dominant, touching the mid-90s with his fastball and backing it up with a true plus curveball. If he can stay healthy, his ceiling is up there with nearly any pitching prospect around.

    Bold mine for emphasis.

    Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.

  30. #30
    NYYF Legend

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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    After all, the Rays look like they are developing their own Flush (with Price, Hellickson, Neiman and Moore; While the Red Sox are building their own with Lester and Buchholz, etc.); so with modern/good talent evaluation such success are not rare.
    Success in terms of building MLB-ready starting pitching is not rare, otherwise we'd run out of starting pitching pretty quickly. Success in building near-HoF-level talent is extremely rare. For every Miguel Cabrera there's at least 20 Ben Broussards, Lyle Overbays, or Corey Pattersons. For every Felix Hernandez there's at least 20 Mark Priors, Daniel Cabreras, or Joel Pinieros. Players who were highly anticipated get injured, or become ineffective, or turn in useful but not outstanding careers.

    Because your percentages are (by your own admission) very vague, it's difficult to QA them, but I find it hard to believe that any pitching prospect has more than a 30% chance of reaching their ceiling, and certainly the Yankees' prospects - while having some outstanding 2010 performances, which I'm very excited about - are not the best pitching prospects in baseball. Yet.

    Be seeing you,

    Saxmania
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  31. #31
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    For context, in this thread: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/...-season-player fans from all teams grade out prospects based on the end of 2010, using John Sickels' A-C ranking.

    Consensus is that Montero is an A, possibly A- (due to defensive issues, mainly). Edgar Martinez is mentioned, which I think is a generous but fair comp. Banuelos gets a B from everyone, including 'Yankees10' (who expects him to be A- by 2011) and one who says that B+ isn't out of the question. Betances gets B/B+, with a couple of B- thrown in, but again with room to improve in 2011. Nova gets B-/C+. Brackman is B/B-, Sanchez straight Bs, Romine B-/B, Laird B/B-. (As we get to the end, there are fewer votes.)

    Before the season began, Sickels gave Montero A, Romine B, Banuelos B-, Sanchez C+, Brackman a C. Betances and Laird didn't get grades, so they're default Cs. Therefore, if the community rankings are fair guesses at Sickels' ratings, Montero's maintained his status, Banuelos has gained a little, Romine's slipped a notch, Sanchez has leaped up a grade, Laird, Brackman and Betances have stormed into the discussion, and Nova's raised his stock quite a bit.

    That's a huge amount better than before the season, and although crowd-sourced opinions aren't necessarily better than expert ones, I feel like this puts the majority of Yankees system in context. A great deal of potential, but with more still to prove than other prospects who have put up multiple years of good numbers.

    Be seeing you,

    Saxmania
    Mayonnaise is a demanding master.

  32. #32

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Game 2 in the Eastern League playoffs featured Adam Warren (Yankee prospect # 7b on this thread) and Jays top preseason prospect (BA America), Zach Stewart. Andy Pettitte started the game and pitched 4 shutout innings. Here is the boxscore.

    Tonight, Yankees #3 prospect Manny Banuelos pitches and tomorrow night it would be #5 Yankee prospect Andrew Brackman.

    Here are comments by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus.

    •Andy Pettitte, RHP, Yakees (Double-A Trenton): 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K. Nice game two starter in the Eastern League playoffs, huh?
    •Zach Stewart, RHP, Blue Jays (Double-A New Hampshire): 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K. Best start of year for righty acquired from Cincinnati in the Scott Rolen trade; sinker/slider specialist profiles as No. 3 or 4 starter in big leagues.
    •Adam Warren, RHP, Yankees (Double-A Trenton): 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K. Yet another Yankee pitching prospect who took a huge step forward in 2010; last year's fourth-round pick has plus velocity and command.

    Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.

  33. #33

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Trenton Yankees advance in their AA playoffs with Manny Banuelos. on the mound for a seven inning outing, five hits, 3 walks and five strikeouts of shutout ball. Banuelos is Yankee prospect #3 on the list given here, and ought to make his major league debut in 2012.
    Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.

  34. #34

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by Hughes2.50
    Yankee prospect #3 on the list given here
    Did you make this list?

  35. #35

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by TheHugeUnit2
    Did you make this list?
    Yes I did.
    Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.

  36. #36
    First Name: Keninovich hardrain's Avatar
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by Hughes2.50
    Trenton Yankees advance in their AA playoffs with Manny Banuelos. on the mound for a seven inning outing, five hits, 3 walks and five strikeouts of shutout ball. Banuelos is Yankee prospect #3 on the list given here, and ought to make his major league debut in 2012.
    any red flags here about his mental make-up and the arrests issues?
    I heard this today...Did Coltrane actually exist? This is like being blind for 50 years, regaining sight, and then peering directly at the sun.

  37. #37

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by hardrain
    any red flags here about his mental make-up and the arrests issues?
    I leave background checks for the club. They ovbviously have the resources to check such things.
    Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.

  38. #38
    Boycott BP NYDCYankee's Avatar
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by hardrain
    any red flags here about his mental make-up and the arrests issues?

    30% chance he winds up going to prison.
    "Long Island is New Jersey with a GED." - Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.

  39. #39

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    What are MN's chances, clown?

    Be seeing you.

    Last edited by Hughes2.50; 09-11-10 at 08:10 AM.
    Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.

  40. #40

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by hardrain
    any red flags here about his mental make-up and the arrests issues?
    What?
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDynasty26
    i was kinda dissapointed when the story didnt end with mule sex....but whatev
    http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.p...60&postcount=4

  41. #41

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    The Yankees 6th rated prospect, 20 year old Brett Marshall, SP, won his playoff start for A+ Tampa, with a 6 inning, 3 hit, 2 earned run, 0 walks, and 5 strikeout effort. Here is the boxscore.
    Last edited by Hughes2.50; 09-12-10 at 08:17 AM.
    Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.

  42. #42

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by Hughes2.50
    The Yankees 6th rated prospect, 20 year old Brett Marshall, SP, won his playoff start for A+ Tampa, with a 6 inning, 3 hit, 2 earned run, 0 walks, and 5 strikeout effort. Here is the boxscore.
    It is not the 6th rated Yankees. It is the sixth rated by YOU.

    Not everybody agrees on here so just stop saying they are this rated and that rated. It is getting annoying

  43. #43
    I miss Andy JavyVazquezIsSick's Avatar
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    These rankings are so funny.
    Calmer than you are.

  44. #44
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by yankstaketitle
    It is not the 6th rated Yankees. It is the sixth rated by YOU.

    Not everybody agrees on here so just stop saying they are this rated and that rated. It is getting annoying
    Oh my gosh, this is hilarious.
    "Long Island is New Jersey with a GED." - Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.

  45. #45

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by NYDCYankee
    Oh my gosh, this is hilarious.
    Troll Bait.

    Quote Originally Posted by NYDCYankee
    Is anyone shocked that Hughes2.50 is doing this? He does this ridiculous stuff all the time.
    How is your stay at Sons of Sam Horn? Heard from someone here that you have an account there. You still can't be mad about this?
    Quote Originally Posted by NYDCYankee
    I moderate there, everyone on this site knows that. So my stay there has been great thanks.

    The reporter of that article is terrynever over on SoSH, a very knowledgeable Yankee fan who happens to be the beat writer for Pawtucket.

    But that has nothing to do with you and the laughable claims you have made ever since you have joined this site.
    Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.

  46. #46
    Yogi Buck
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Everybody down grades Ivan Nova and that he only has 4th or 5th starter stuff, but he's thrown harder than any current Yankee starter over the past month he's been up.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...n=2010&month=3

    Just curious, but when does he start getting some recognition. Doesn't he project with his stuff and control to be a #1 or #2 on more than half the teams in baseball.

    And to have him rated behind felix whoever?
    WARNING! This post may be offensive to little girly men or women with soft feelings.

    Never argue with an idiot. They'll bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

  47. #47

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by budstinks
    Everybody down grades Ivan Nova and that he only has 4th or 5th starter stuff, but he's thrown harder than any current Yankee starter over the past month he's been up.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...n=2010&month=3

    Just curious, but when does he start getting some recognition. Doesn't he project with his stuff and control to be a #1 or #2 on more than half the teams in baseball.

    And to have him rated behind felix whoever?
    I gave him a solid grade, look at the letter grade (that should mean he will be a solid starter in the majors; indeed an above average starter - B). If, and its a big if the investigation of him using PEDs doesn't turn up anything.
    Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.

  48. #48
    Yogi Buck
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by JavyVazquezIsSick
    These rankings are so funny.
    Some times you just have to wonder if some of the posters here (when they quote their own poll) aren't like 12 years old.

    But they've been around for a while, so you think they have to at least be mid-teens by now?

    WARNING! This post may be offensive to little girly men or women with soft feelings.

    Never argue with an idiot. They'll bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

  49. #49

    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    Quote Originally Posted by budstinks
    Everybody down grades Ivan Nova and that he only has 4th or 5th starter stuff, but he's thrown harder than any current Yankee starter over the past month he's been up.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...n=2010&month=3

    Just curious, but when does he start getting some recognition. Doesn't he project with his stuff and control to be a #1 or #2 on more than half the teams in baseball.

    And to have him rated behind felix whoever?
    I'm pretty high on Nova right now. He's really taken massive steps forward over the past 2 years since being taken and returned in the Rule 5 draft. Depending on what happens with Pettitte he has an excellent shot at the #5 spot in the rotation next year. If not he'll be waiting in the wings as the #6. With most of our top pitching prospects probably another year away he has a great opportunity next year to earn a permanent spot in our rotation. I still think his stuff profiles more as a #3-5 starter in the AL East. I think in another division (particularly the NL) he could be a top of the rotation caliber starter, but a good mid-back end starter in by far the toughest division in baseball is not bad at all.

    The PED investigations though are alarming. Hopefully everything turns up clean.

  50. #50
    I miss Andy JavyVazquezIsSick's Avatar
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    Re: NY Yankees Top 20 Prospects (off-season 2010/2011)

    I don't know how you could not be high on Nova. He's shown plus stuff as a SP.
    Calmer than you are.

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