never said they wouldnt and i would call them the top 2 as i will take either over brack at this point.Originally Posted by Hughes2.50
never said they wouldnt and i would call them the top 2 as i will take either over brack at this point.
There are 2 separate arguments here. You seem to be arguing that: 1. he should be ranked top 10 and 2. he will be ranked top 10. The first argument, while I disagree with it, does have some merit. The second argument is IMO absurd. While BA does like ceiling, they are risk-averse enough to be conservative on ranking a 22 year-old in high-A with a bad injury history (even one pitching as well as Betances is currently). Frankly, I'd be a little surprised if he made the top 50, though I do think he's deserving.
except dellin didnt have TJS like Nick did, so that comparison would never be fair anyway. he had the ligament reinforcement that Mo had
Well, this viewpoint is deserving of consideration. Point one, I do think he deserves it. Point two, BA evaluations (contrary to some fan-boy views) are not based on politics (conservative evaluations) so much as sources who tell tell them who the high ceiling guys are who 'finally get it.'
Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.
That is true, I'm not comparing dominance (Betances is clearly more dominant) - just the fact that Adenhart came back after worse surgery and was ranked highly (by BA) the next year.
Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.
There's a reason why you're ignoring my bet and continue to make hollow arguments.@ downplaying Mike Trout's pro career & using the word "fanboy" to describe another poster.
"I see Jesus Montero as a potential once-in-a-generation force on offense."
Btw, I'm convinced that Trout will be top ten no matter what he does in High A for the rest of this year. My argument is based on how high-ceiling players are evaluated, not downplaying Trout's obvious skills.
Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.
Not disagreeing now.
Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.
don't trip and fall on your ass while backtracking so quickly
Backtrack my ass. Trout is top ten at 19 in high A ball. Betances is top ten at 22 dominating High A ball more decisively and completely.
Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.
trout hasnt even turned 19 yet, he will on sat, but his numbers are as an 18 yr old.
"I was getting ahead in the count," Betances said. "I felt like my arm speed was working well today. My curve was working well, I got a lot of strikeouts with that."
"I don't want to say I didn't pitch well because my arm didn't feel right, and now I feel 100 percent," he said. "Right now, I am just trying to go out every day and improve and be consistent with my mechanics. Last year my delivery wasn't fine. I am happy to go out there every five days and give the team a chance to win."
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100802&content_id=12954016&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp
"Jesus Montero is a stud," one evaluator wrote in an e-mail. "One of the best young hitters I've ever seen, period."
don't trip and fall on your ass while backtracking so quickly
"I see Jesus Montero as a potential once-in-a-generation force on offense."
two pages ago, you said that dellin would definitely be in the top 10... now you're saying it's about 50/50
which one is it?
I don't post here often, but I follow the minors with interest. I think you're off on this one.
$25 to NYYFans.com wager on this one? If Betances is in the next offseason BA top 10 (I'll be generous, make it the top 12), I'll pay it. If he's not, you pay it. Deal?
I feel like you're an interesting poster who contributes a lot, but based on our conversations over the past few years, I definitely think your player evaluation logic could use some tweaking. Not a personal insult, just an observation. This offer is a result of that observation.
(Melan-cynic's already offered a bet too, but I thought I'd jump in first with a firm amount.)
Be seeing you,
Saxmania
Mayonnaise is a demanding master.
BA is a biased, piece of crap rag, whose ratings matter about as much as a freckle on my arse. So I'm not sure why anyone will care where they rank anyone.
That said, none of you have a freakin clue how or where they will rate Betences.
But those of you doubting Betences seem to forget that Betences had a pretty good 2008 and while he's been treated with kid gloves, COMING into this year he had a 10.1 K9 and 7.8 hits per 9. So he HAS been pretty good already.
IF he moves up to AA and gets 5 starts or so and continues pitching the way he is AND does the same in a couple of playoff starts, who knows where he ends up.
I know this, there probably isn't 10-12 guys in the minors he gets traded for. And there may not be any that have his combination of stuff and results.
Last edited by budstinks; 08-03-10 at 06:41 AM.
WARNING! This post may be offensive to little girly men or women with soft feelings.
Never argue with an idiot. They'll bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.
The most impressive thing with Dellin is him cutting his BB/9 rate almost in half. That's what has impressed me most. Same thing goes for Brackman, although I'm not at all as high on him as others.
Calmer than you are.
The K percentage is still high, but lower than in the past for him.
Wonder if something finally clicked.....
Is it just me, or does it seem like an inordinate amount of rookies made debuts (many of them successful) this season.
WARNING! This post may be offensive to little girly men or women with soft feelings.
Never argue with an idiot. They'll bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.
Betances numbers this season are eerily similar to his rookie reason. As in, completely identical except that he's pitched about double the innings.
Calmer than you are.
No offense but I just don't bet. As a concept, do you think it makes sense to use knowledge to take advantage of others? And, who wouldn't try (if you did bet) to get the best odds possible for any bet you might consider, For example, what kind of odds would Vegas odds makers (or Llyods of London) give on the proposed bet? I think long odds.Since I know that inside knowledge is power, and the person who wields it ought to have odds favorable to get something in return for their knowledge, it would only make sense to hedge a bet such as this. In other words since this bet 'isn't an unlikely event' for people who have such knowledge, and since those on the other side see it as very unlikely (you 'others' need to put up more money to prove that it is unlikely).
So those who consider it ludicrous ought to be willing to put up much more on their side of that bet. What kind of odds would they be willing to pay, to 'bet' something is so unlikely?
Since I do not bet, but since this is a public forum, I'll make sure to keep this thread in mind in the fall, when BA comes out with their top 100 lists.
Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.
Seems like this could be a pretty simple exercise if there are 10+ obvious prospects to be ranked ahead of Betances.
Anyone have names?
Killer Bs: Betances, Banuelos, Brackman, Bleich
Dom Brown (probably not eligible if he stays up)
Trout
Desmond Jennings
Jeremy Hellickson (could also lose eligibility)
Jesus
Julio Tehran
Martin Perez
Dustin Ackley
Tyler Matzek
Moustakas
Michael Pineda
Zach Britton
Eric Hosmer
Chapman
Mike Montgomery
that's at least 15 guys that rightly or wrongly will be ahead of dellin.
Montero, anyone??
He's #5 on that list you quoted.
I was assuming he was 5th on the list -- unless he was referring to another Jesus
"Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late" -- Branch Rickey
Gary Sanchez is in the lineup today for the GCL Yankees.
Cashman told Accorsi, “I feel the responsibility of millions of Yankee fans on my shoulders, fans who take this very seriously and for which every game is very important. I think of that every day.”
Good news. Thanks
"Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late" -- Branch Rickey
I just e-mailed Callis and he had this to say.
Keeps pitching like this, and I think he'd make the second half somewhere.
Jim Callis
Executive Editor
Baseball America
On Tue, Aug 3, 2010 at 7:12 AM, Samwrote:
From: Sam
E-mail: xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Dellin Betances
Message:
Where do you think Dellin Betances lands in next years Top 100, if at anywhere? Thanks!
Given that response, I find it extremely unlikely that he'll be in the top 10.
What does he know?
"Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late" -- Branch Rickey
So that's not even the top 50.
Anytime you want to admit you were way off is fine with me Hughes.
"I see Jesus Montero as a potential once-in-a-generation force on offense."
To be clear, BA themselves aren't good at evaluating anyone - they simply don't have the resources to do that job justice with the number of players to evaluate. They depend on data from the ML teams to complete their assessment of players. They are good a compiling data from biased sources, though they don't really have any idea if the data is complete or not.
To weigh in on this, Betances will not sniff the Top 20 list, nevermind the Top 10. His track record is too inconsistent at this point and his accomplishments in 2010 are a total of 11 starts. I love him as a prospect and am thrilled he is doing well. He just isn't ready to be Top 10 yet. Maybe next year.
Since the conversation was not a question of how good Betances is but rather where he would be on Baseball America's Top 100, I figured asking one of the Baseball America guys would get to the bottom of it.
I was joking. I thought your post was awesome
"Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late" -- Branch Rickey
Touche.
Guilty as charged!!
Missed it. Guess that's what happens when you hit old age, or follow the same team for 44 years!!!
I have no idea what you are trying to say here, but I think it is a big reach for you to consider yourself to be the one with the 'knowledge' in this arguement. Unless your name is really Mark Newman or Jim Callis and are posting here just for kicks, you have no more insider information than most anyone else on this site. It is highly unlikely you have any insights as to where BA may or may not see Betances ranking in the Top 100 prospects lists that isn't due out for another 5-6 months. None of us do and it is highly likely that BA doesn't either, as promotions and such play a factor in who is even eligible. So either bet or don't bet, but don't try to play it off as being unfair to take a bet with someone because you have 'knowledge' that is superior to anyone else. It is your opinion and only that. Knowledge has nothing to do with it.
It's the greatest backtrack in NYYFans history. And 2.5 knows it, hence the ridiculously long, unnecessary explanation of why he won't put his money where his mouth is.
"I see Jesus Montero as a potential once-in-a-generation force on offense."
High comedy. I can hardly believe a debate about (the impossibility of) Betances making BA's top 10 this year really took place over the last 3 or so pages.
Okay, that didn't really make much sense at all.
If you think you gave superior knowledge that Betances will be top 10, then you should be happy to take 50/50 odds. I'm entering into the deal with full knowledge of the risk that you have priviledged access to this information, and consider that risk negligible, unless you have evidence to the contrary.
'Hedging' a bet doesn't mean to get better odds, it means to reduce your exposure to risk. Increasing your potential payoff doesn't really qualify. I deal with hedging all the time.
If you don't bet, then that's okay. But if you're willing to bet, the only reasons to ask for better odds would be that a) you're not confident in your stated position; b) you think I have inside knowledge or are running a book. B) is not true. A) is your call.
Be seeing you,
Saxmania
Mayonnaise is a demanding master.
Too Good For Tampa
Emerging Yankees phenom Dellin Betances has returned from Tommy John surgery better than ever. Pitching for high Class A Tampa yesterday, the 22-year-old righthander struck out 11 of the 19 Fort Myers batters he faced. Betances walked one and allowed another batter to reach via hit, but for six innings of work, that's not bad at all. Righthander Philip Bartleski pitched three perfect innings to preserve Tampa's one-hitter.
The Yankees claim that Betances has returned from TJ surgery minus the mechanical flaws that used to plague him, and thus his command has improved by a grade or two. The numbers bear this out. In his 11 starts since coming off the disabled list, Betances has scaled career peaks for both strikeouts (10.7) and walks (2.4) per nine innings. The one thing he hasn't done—this season or in any other—is pitch in Double-A. That seems destined to happen soon enough.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=9857
"Jesus Montero is a stud," one evaluator wrote in an e-mail. "One of the best young hitters I've ever seen, period."
Would anyone like to comment on the strength of our lower minors as of this month? From a pure W-L standpoint, two teams are in last place, and Charleston has the look of a .500 team. Is this a lack of good prospects, coaching, few draft signings, or something else? Who are our legitimate prospects that we should expect to see in pinstripes (besides Heathcott, Ramirez, and Sanchez)? Should we expect BA to bash the Yankees for a lack of depth in the lower minors?
LOL...
I don't expect half these guys to be in Pinstripes unless the Yankees are sold to a cheap owner and have a new GM who wants to develop prospects (so obviously we will hardly see anybody for extended periods of time that I list): Josh Romanski, Brett Marshall, Sean Black, Murphy, de Leon, Sosa, Mojica, Ramon Flores, Henry Pena, Rey Nunez, Cito Culver, Marcano, Turley, Murton, Roller, Lassiter, O'Brien, Richardson, Mitchell, De Luca, Checo mixed in with a hand of potentially useful relievers and then DSL guys like Calderon, Alcantara, Santana, Leonora, etc..
Staten Island is a weak prospect team, and there is no getting around that, but I think the GCL and to an extent Charleston have a decent amount of prospects. Don't put too much stock in the W-L.
Many of those guys aren't really high end guys like the three you mentioned, but I think they bring something to our lower minors depth. I know depth wise we are definitely not top 10, but that is probably putting us somwhere in the middle third, maybe the late teens at worst.
The irony here is that the Yanks used to get bashed for placing W-L records over prospect development. Now that the focus is on getting kids ready, sometimes at the cost of a W, there is concern that this means the system is sliding?
I had the same thought. W-L is a horrible way to judge the stength of our system
"Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late" -- Branch Rickey
"Jesus Montero is a stud," one evaluator wrote in an e-mail. "One of the best young hitters I've ever seen, period."
Rangers got richer with Mendez. Can't stand seeing them so loaded.
Hopefully Dellin makes his AA debut sometime before the minor league season is up...
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