Totally different situations. Also at that time the Phillies got nothing, the Yankees got another first round draft pick for compensation.Originally Posted by Januz
Totally different situations. Also at that time the Phillies got nothing, the Yankees got another first round draft pick for compensation.Originally Posted by Januz
The latest reverse engineered Elias rankings. Remember all those posters who told everyone with every degree of certianty that Vaz was not going to be an A- better start editting those old posts.
Yes, the Yanks are COMFORTABLY going to get those 2 picks. Plus, if worst came to worst, Jeter, Mo and Pettitte are all A as well. Even though Johnson is a B, there is next to no chance that the Yanks offer him arbitration.
Personally, I think that if the Yanks win it all again, Pettitte will retire. I think that Mo will come back for a one year deal and the Yanks sign Jeter to a 3 year $45M deal.
If you're referring to me, you got me all wrong. I claimed the Yanks wouldn't DEFINITELY offer him arbitration, you were certain.Originally Posted by Matsui55
too much overreaction on cole. guy wanted to go to college, so he's an asshole?
First, the Yankees have to offer Javy arbitration. Next, he has to decline it. Lastly, a team that's not picking 1-15 has to sign him. I don't think there's anything "comfortable" at all about the chances of the Yankees getting two picks for Vazquez. I don't even think they'll make it past step 1.Originally Posted by Matsui55
One- Cashman has already publicly stated that part of the reason they made the trade included getting the two picks, so yes, the Yanks WILL offer arbitration.Originally Posted by YESSIR!
Two- Vasquez WILL decline arbitration. In a winter with only 3 legitimate healthy SP (Lee, Lilly and Vasquez), he will get multi-year offers that will far exceed what he can get from an arbitration for one year.
Three- it doesn't matter whether a team with one of the top 15 picks signs Vasquez or not, the Yanks get 2 picks no matter what. Whether they are both 1st rounders depends on a number of factors. Nevertheless, the Yanks will get a sandwich round pick, plus one other- which would be a 1st rounder if teams picking in the 16-30 range sign him and do not sign another FA, or a later round pick if they sign one or more higher ranked FAs.
Yes, the Yanks will get the two picks.
We'll just have to wait and see what happens.Originally Posted by Matsui55
Well I guess we willOriginally Posted by YESSIR!
"If we have to, we'll hoard everybody. That's what the Yankees used to do."
“Most lineups will hate facing our pitching and most pitching will hate facing our lineup,”
the Mets are the perfect spot for Javy since they always fail to sign a good starter, he dominated in the NL East. Dodgers depending on the divorce could be a spot as well as they need starters.
Just a guess on my part, but I think the two teams to watch for Javy this winter are the Mets and the Nats. You correctly identified the Mets need for him, but the Nats could be the "best' fit for several reasons.Originally Posted by mwalvlior
One- they were VERY willing to spend last winter, and with the realization that they are close to contending in the NL East, another SP might put them into real contender area (SP is a major weakness outside of Strausburg and Zimmerman), they will spend this winter.
Two- Javy very much wants to stay on the East Coast, closer to home (PR). Washington is a nice distance from PR.
Three- even Javy realizes he's a better pitcher in the NL. The NL teams simply are not as good as the AL ones, especially the AL East.
Should Javy go to the Nats, the Yanks would probably get a sandwich pick and a second round pick, as the Nats 1st rounder will probably be a top 15 pick (though it could be a closer call this year). Nevertheless, that 2nd rounder will be near the top or middle of the 2nd, rather than late like the Yanks pick would be.
Pet peeve: there are two z's in Vazquez and no s.Originally Posted by Matsui55
http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.p...60&postcount=4Originally Posted by TheDynasty26
Just to make my point a little clearer on who will be in the market for Javy this winter (since Lee will be out of most team's price range).Originally Posted by Matsui55
A team willing to spend $$ to get SP and has an expressed need. The trade guys cost prospects- Javy will cost the Nats $$ and a 2nd round pick (they will be in the top 15 worst records). Keep in mind that one of Javy's goals (and a big reason he was unhappy in AZ) is to stay closer to Puerto Rico and in the NL.
I fully expect the Nats to be as involved as, if not more than, the Mets for Javy this winter.
Nats may want Vazquez but not for 15m annually. Nationals should re sign dunn and sign few offensive products. Even with Dunn and Willy, offense could not produce enough runs to win games for the dominant Strasburg, let alone adding big buck SP.
I could not find any thread about Yanks brass so I go ahead and post here since it is related to scouting department and its future.
Damon going to Dbacks and Eppler going to Padres for GM job could be done. Who will be in charge of scouting department? Towers?
I dont see any GM job offer for Towers this moment so I could see Towers take damon's job so Yanks could continue gathering products from California. lol.
The Padres already hired Towers replacement! Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprise if the interim GM for the D-Backs gets that gig permanently.
Nats have talked about Oswalt- who makes just as much. The Nats have money to spend with their new owners and are finally willing to use it. They may be a team to watch closely this winter in FA for a couple very simple reasons.Originally Posted by yoo-boo
One- they have $$$ to spend when many others do not. Two- they can't lose their 1st round pick (one of the worst 15 teams). Three- they know that when the 1st two are combined, they can follow the Yanks 2009 model and sign several A level FAs, while still getting a very high pick and only losing 2nd, 3rd and maybe 4th rounders. At the same time, they can dramatically push their club into competition with another SP, another bat and possibly a good middle INF.
Don't sleep on the Nats this winter.
sorry, Eppler and Padres mentioned in same passage and I somehow subconsciously called Eppler to replace Hoyer. I really mean to say that damon could take Eppler with him. However if Dipoto is the answer then it is good news.Originally Posted by Yankees1962
Here's something to think about when considering getting draft picks to replace FA.
The Red Sox had a bunch of comp picks this year, and lost theri 1st and 2nd rounders for signing FAs. While they got their 1st rounder signed and their top comp pick, their next 2 comp picks (Raunado and Workman) are really working them over. Raunaudo reportedly wants top 10 money and Workman reportedly wants 1st round money.
I think the Sox can pay them, and in Renaudo's case, they probably should. However, if neither one signs, the Sox will NOT get a comp pick for not signing them in 2011. You only get one comp pick- and if you don't sign the guy you take with your comp pick, you are out of luck.
I add this only as something to think about as we consider the picks we may get for any FA this year, be it Vasquez, Lee (assuming he is traded to the Yanks) or anyone else. The picks are great, especially in a strong draft, but picks don't always sign (see Cole).
Yanks get at least 3 first round picks and somehow they draft Cole and Ranaedo. Nice dream. heh.Originally Posted by Matsui55
You only get one comp pick? Are you sure?Originally Posted by Matsui55
Is that right a compensatory pick for fail to sign up to 4 rounds but 3nd and 4th round compensatory picks will be awarded after the end of each round.Originally Posted by McMoose
Yep- that's why the Yanks had to be very sure they could sign Slade and JR last year- they were the comp picks for Cole and Bittle. If they didn't sign Slade or JR, they would NOT have received another pick this year because they used the comp pick, but didn't sign the player.Originally Posted by McMoose
No, there are no 4th round comp picks.Originally Posted by yoo-boo
You only get comp pick for failing to sign a player in the first THREE rounds- and that pick has to be your own regular pick. If you select someone in the first 3 rounds with a comp pick, and you don't sign the guy, you do NOT get another comp pick for failing to sign a comp pick.
For example, if the Yanks fail to sign 4th rounder Mason Williams, the Yanks do NOT get a comp pick next year for him.
If they fail to sign 2nd rounder Angelo Gumbs, since he was NOT a comp pick, the Yanks would get pick 82A next year. However, if the Yanks did not sign the guy they drafted with pick 82A next year, the Yanks would NOT get another comp pick in 2012.
Just check out the rule.. Only 3rd round unsigned pick will become 3rd supplemental round pick in the following draft.Originally Posted by Matsui55
For Yankees, it wont hurt to miss out Williams. For Red Sox, failing to sign big time SP will haunt them forever.
If a team does not sign its 1st or 2nd round pick (its own regular draft pick, and not a comp pick), then they get a comp pick after the number of the pick they did not sign.Originally Posted by yoo-boo
In other words, since Gumbs was pick 82 (2nd round), if the Yanks don't sign Gumbs, they get pick 82A next year.
If the Yanks don't sign Seguin (3rd rounder), they get a supplemental pick after the 3rd round.
This isn't rocket science.
Rendon fractured his ankle last night.
Mo' Nut: One Smoove Brotha.
Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA
Loss. Anyone know the prognosis? If he misses some time he might not go 1-1 like he should
"Montero hasn't delivered completely on his raw power, but he's close to projecting as an 80 hitter with 80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale"-BA
Depend on other prospects and what position other than 3B the worst team wants to groom.Originally Posted by bmxstreetrider86
BaseballAmerica reports thatOriginally Posted by bmxstreetrider86http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/?p=3856Team USA officially announced this afternoon that Rendon has a fracture-dislocation of his right ankle and will miss the rest of the summer. He will return to Houston on Friday.
In addition to this serious injury curtailing his summer and putting some doubt on how what he will be like when he comes backs, Rendon's problems are further compounded by the fact that this is the same ankle in which he tore some ligaments last year that ended his summer last year as well. If he comes back health and doesnt miss much of the season next year Rendon's place in the draft wont be affected much unless one of the college pitchers has an amazing year and Rendon doesnt quite return to his previous self.
First Mock Draft
Dillon Maples has commitment to UNC. umm.. Is he AJ Burnett duo?
why don't you just rank the prospects at this point, instead of "mock drafting' which introduces a host of team related variables at a point where teams haven't even begun to prepare for drafts.Originally Posted by Sully Draft
That's all it is pretty much. Just like the format of a mock. That's my top 30 as of now.
I still say the Nats will make a strong run at Vaz, and oddly, the Pirates might be interested, as Vaz's price is beginning to shrink.Originally Posted by Matsui55
Vaz will probably still be an A, especially if he gets shut down for a few weeks in September, but it is reaching a point where the decision is a lot harder than it was a month ago. However, if I were a betting guy, I would say that the Yanks still offer arbitration to Vaz.
Last edited by Matsui55; 08-22-10 at 04:32 PM.
And don't forget, since the Nats are guaranteed to pick in the top 15 in the draft, their pick is protected and they won't lose their 1st round pick (they lose their 2nd) by signing Javy.
A veteran that gives you pretty much 200 IP and 150 k's every year that can help mentor that young staff would probably be well worth a 2nd round pick.
edit: oh oops, you had that posted in the quote
Here are the latest Elias projections from a guy MLBRumors says has done this accurately in the past. Remember, the Elias rankings are the formula used to determine FA compensation.
In what can only be termed a big change, Wood is now a B level FA, and so is Lance Berkman. That said, I think the Yanks cannot offer arbitration to either one because of the chance they would accept and get major money.
I would note that Austin Kearns is close to a B- I am beginning to think the Yanks might offer him arbitration regardless of whether he is a B or not. He is making $750,000 this year- and even with a big bump in salary (say, $3M), he would be a very useful 4th OF/DH/PH that the Yanks haven't had in a while.
Of course, Vaz, Pettitte, Mo and Jeter remain A level guys- with only Vaz to consider, as the others should re-sign rather readily.
Question for the site members- would you prefer the Yanks to negotiate multi-year deals with Pettitte, Mo and Jeter, or would you prefer to offer them arbitration and have them accept. In essence, the difference is that you only have one-year deals with the 3, in case they suddenly decline, vs. having longer term guaranteed deals. Which is better, in your opinion?
I go with the one-year arbitration option- Mo is still Mo, but he will be 41- and as Hoffman showed this year- decline can be swift. Same applies for Jeter.
i agree on Wood cause he wont get 12 mil anywhere and would take it from us. i dont think berk wants to be in NY since he made us decline his option that would have gotten him mega money already so with him maybe we offer and get a sandwich pick. I think Mo and Jete both get 2 years (hoping that is long as Jeter gets)Originally Posted by Matsui55
Realistically expect Mo to get a 2/3 yr offer, and Jeter a 4 yr offer (anything less could be a pr mess).Originally Posted by mwalvlior
Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.
i think jeter getting 4 years was the expectation coming into this year, but with his declining play just dont see them going that long. then again they did sign arod to his too long deal.Originally Posted by Hughes2.50
I know what you are saying, and agree, but the Yankees will probably give Mo and Jeter the longer contracts and avoid the potential pr mess associated with pissing off Jeter or Mo and alienating a large segment of the fan base.Originally Posted by mwalvlior
I know more than a few fans who were pissed at the way Bernie ended his career with the Yankees (also, even Pettitte leaving for Houston) - just don't see Cashman taking the chance with Jeter or Mo.
Royal Flush: Hughes, Sabathia, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos.
The latest estimate of the Elias rankings (used to determine FA comp).
Vaz still an A level FA- of course, so are Jeter, Pettitte and Mo.
This guy says Berkman and Wood will both be B level FAs. I still find it hard to believe the Yanks make arbitration offers to either one, as the arbitration offers will be the best deals they get this winter.
Something interesting that might explain the rumors tying the Yanks to Werth.
According to these projections, Werth's Elias rating is higher than that for Lee and Crawford. Let's just play the game that the Yanks could sign all 3 as FAs this winter (unlikely, but follow along for a moment) and assume that all 3 FAs were offered arbitration.
The result would be that the Phils would get the Yanks 1st rounder, The Rangers would get the Yanks 2nd and the Rays would get the Yanks 3rd. Of course, all 3 would also get sandwich round picks between the 1st and 2nd rounds.
Think about that for a moment- the Rangers would NOT get a 1st rounder for Lee, and the Rays would only get one pick in the first 100 picks for Crawford.
An unlikely scenario, but it is interesting to speculate that the Yanks might prefer to give their 1st rounder to the Phils rather than to the Rangers or Rays.
Fan reaction is a bad reason to make a bad decision.Originally Posted by Hughes2.50
If I were Cashman this winter, I would definitely offer arbitration to Jeter and hope he accepts. Once Jeter gets that 3000th hit (which assuming a season like this one, would have him getting it sometime late next July), there really isn't much more than sentimentality keeping Jeter in NY.
I think that Jeter is smart enough to realize that the Yanks aren't going to give him ARod money now- 3 ok seasons and one great one, while turning 37 should give the Yanks pause. Jeter can make all the money he wants in 2011 by accepting arbitration.
It also gives the Yanks and Jeter massive flexibility after 2011. Both Reyes and Rollins are due to be FA after 2011. That would give the Yanks leverage, as well as decent landing spots for Jeter if he decides to leave.
At this point, while sentimentality says Jeter should get a 3-4 year deal, the Yanks window for championships remains open, and there is the decent possibility that in 2 more years, Jeter and ARod could be drags on both payroll and the roster. Year to year might be the best course now.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/0...offseason.htmlOriginally Posted by Matsui55
From the same site.
Just a discussion question for the site- if you were the Yanks GM, would you call the Dodgers and assess their interest in Granderson and Swisher (return is irrelevant for the question- assume a couple of prospects), if the Yanks could sign both Crawford and Werth?
Kemp is the jewel that might be pried loose for a Gardner/Nova + package. Depends if Andy returns. He has the speed to patrol LF, add some power and Granderson as the rebuilt power CF is reasonable and intrigiuing. The Yankees need power to maintain as A Rod and Posada trend down. Kemp in the NY clubhouse would be tuned up by the Stars around him and the talent is on par with Crawford and Werth whose costs are prohibitive.
No. haha, A couple of prospects? I think I might take Swisher and Granderson over Crawford and Werth and a couple of spects. Those two will be what 32 million-ish in payroll. I don't see a big enough gap between those two either. Crawford doesn't hit that well away from turf either.Originally Posted by Matsui55
Right.Originally Posted by TheHugeUnit2
The splits have become closer the last three years.Originally Posted by kan_t
The pay issue is a little overstated here.Originally Posted by TheHugeUnit2
Swisher will make $9M in 2011, and has an option for $10.25M in 2012 (with a $1M buyout). Granderson will make $8.25M in 2011, $10M in 2012 and has an option for $13M in 2013 ($2M buyout).
That means together they make $17.25M in 2011.
I suspect Werth might make a little less because he will be 32 in 2012- let's say 4 years $60M. Crawford might go for 5 years $85M. Let's assume that this is the floor salarywise for these two. So that means they might make about $32-35M together in 2012.
That means the Yanks would pay an additional $15-18M for Werth and Crawford in 2012 over Granderson and Swisher.
I think there is a good argument to be made that Jeter's days as a great top of the order hitter are if not over, almost over. Crawford isn't a great OBP guy- but his .350+ OBP over the past two years is good enough for a #2 hitter. He should be a SIGNIFICANT improvement offensively over Granderson, without much of a loss defensively. Gardner will be fine in CF.
Going forward, I think I prefer Werth to Swisher. Werth is simply the better athlete- and both are good OBP guys- while Swisher has had a GREAT season, given his track record, it isn't hard to reach the conclusion that this is a career year. Werth has CLEARLY not been as good in 2010 as he was in 2009- but he hasn't been bad either.
Assuming that the Yanks sign Cliff Lee and let Vaz go for the two picks, the Yanks will effectively lose a 3rd rounder and end up paying about $20-25M to drop Vaz, Granderson and Swisher while adding Lee, Crawford and Werth, along with a couple decent prospects.
So long as they Yanks keep the contracts under 5 years, I don't see a real problem here. In fact, there is a legitimate argument to be made that Lee is a substantial upgrade over Vaz, Crawford is a pretty good upgrade over Granderson and Werth and Swisher might be a push.
Let's assume that the Yanks could get 2 decent prospects for Swisher and Granderson as well.
I think the Yanks might have to do one heck of a sales job on the Dodgers, but this would be interesting.
The great majority of this is due to 2008 (as well as 2003, but I discount that season because it was his first full season in the bigs). Let me show you.Originally Posted by kan_t
In 2006, he was pretty much the same hitter at home as on the road- better OBP at home, better SLG on the road.
In 2007, he was actually a significantly better hitter on the road than at home.
In 2008, he was pretty good at home- and almost "Granderson hitting lefties" bad on the road.
In 2009, he was actually a better hitter on the road than at home:
In 2010, he has been almost the same hitter at home as the road, with the SLG difference due to 10 HR at home and 5 on the road- but that's not why you sign Carl Crawford.
With almost 5 full seasons of data, it is pretty clear that 2008 was the outlier season, and that Crawford actually goes back and forth on being better at home or the road, with only minor variances, except for 2008.
First, can we agree that this year's team has been pretty darn good? Can we agree that it could very well win another world's championship? Having said this, is the team perfect? Of course not - all teams can improve, but where are the weaknesses? I would argue that it is the starting pitching and NOT the offense. Why would you want to take two of the best "character" guys out of the mix, in Swisher and Grandison, increase your salary by taking on Werth and Crawford, and see marginal improvements in the numbers? While I am not the biggest Gardner guy, he does add an element to this lineup that we have not had since the days of Ricky Henderson. He certainly is not going to hit for the power of a Crawford or Werth, but he doesn't hurt you in the OF and he is just starting his career. He might yet develop into a better average hitter and improve his SB approach. Grandeson appears to have "figured it out" since his pow-wow with KLong and is hitting both RH and LH pitching. He is decent in the OF and is capable of being a 30-30 guy, HR/SB. Swisher is essentially duplicating what he did last year, makes the plays in RF with a good arm, and is a switch-hitter giving the lineup flexibiilty. He is a GREAT presence on this team and that should not be understated - a great team guy that will do anything you ask of him. I simply don't see a reason to do much, if anything with the OF.
Pitching, specifically starting pitching is a different story, but is anyone else concerned with Cliff Lee's performance of late? He is 32 years old and starting to have back issues. I don't think that we should just assume that this is where we are going in the off-season. We keep talking about the arms in the minors and despite a small hiccup yesterday, Nova has shown that he can pitch up here. There are obviously many others, but knowing the Yankees, and based off of the experience a couple of years ago with having 3 rooks in the starting rotation, I suspect they will look to free agency - especially if Andy retires. If anyplace, I would expect the majority of the attention in the off season to be on the pitching staff. We need to look at the relief core as well, of course, in that some of the guys currently contributing won't be back.
Anyway, the point is why fix something that isn't broke? The offense is likely to get a boost if Montero sticks, whether behind the plate or as a part-time DH. Sure, I would be pissed if the Sox signed Werth or Crawford, and it is likely that they will sign at least one of them if we don't. Just not sure that it makes sense to somewhat arbortrarily increase the payroll when we know that DJ and Mo are up for renewal. It will be interesting to see what we do.
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