Rule V

[sjkqw]

Yes, I know it is early in the season, but with the draft a week from today I decided to give us just that much time to discuss the Rule V situation so we can focus a little more on the draft a little later on.

Potential Free spots: Andy Pettitte, Chad Gaudin, Jon Albaladejo, Sergio Mitre, Chan Ho Park, Boone Logan, Juan Miranda, Marcus Thames, Chad Moeller, Reegie Corona, Javy Vazquez

That's 10 spots and likely we will not use that many considering we may need a reliever and new bench player and DH. Plus Corona might be nice to keep instead of DFAing
First Time Eligible: Ryan Pope, Brad Suttle, Adam Olbrychowski, Damon Sublett, Austin Krum, Justin Snyder, Craig Heyer, Brandon Laird, Dan Kapala, Matt Cusick, Charles Nolte, Phil Bartleski, Dellin Betances, Zach McAllister, Noel Castillo, Jon Ortiz, Kelvin Perez, Dickson Marquez, Kelvin Castro, Walter Ibarra

2009 eligible: Colin Curtis, George Kontos, Tim Norton, Brian Baisley, Kevin Smith, Wilkins Arias, Melky Mesa, Jose Gil, Luis Nunez

2008 eligible: Lance Pendleton, Alan Horne, Eric Wordekemper, Kevin Whelan, Josh Schmidt, Marcos Vechionacci

2007 eligible: PJ Pillitere, Grant Duff

2005 eligible: Edwar Gonzalez
Laird and McAllister seem like the two obvious ones. Kontos and Curtis seem like good additions and Krum has played well recently. Of course Grant Duff has hit the spotlight. After that there are a lot of borderline guys and nobodies.

Who would you guys decide to protect?

[philleotardo]

Isn't Javier Vazquez a potential opening also?

And, in theory, Jeter and Rivera.

[sjkqw]

Yep, Missed Vazquez. Jeter reallistically can't be considered an open spot. Maybe Rivera, but I'll leave him off for now. Just goes to prove that we have a lot of open spaces next year.

[TheHugeUnit2]

Theres two guys I'm 100% protecting. Laird and McAllister. I'd look into Suttle, Sublett and Dellin depending on remaining spots and such but this is a long time off so meh.

[mbn007]

Laird and Zach mac are the only givens there. I think Kontos will be given a slot, as will Curtis. I read a quote somewhere that Cashman said Curtis would have been called up if not for his injury earlier this season.

The only other one who is close is maybe Suttle, as the power is not there, but he has nmised a full season last year, and his bat was a solid weapon when he was drafted.

Pendleton has actually had a decent year.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=459983

He was a College draftee from Rice. I think he was misused in College, as he had surgery in 2006, and missed almost 2 full seasons. Since then, in 2008 on, he has fashioned a nice career. His age is against him, but being a College draftee, and missing time with surgery is part of the reason. He may be worth a slot, although it depends on teh rest of the Yankees moves before the end of 2010.

IMO, he gets drafted if left exposed, by a team like KC or Pittsburgh. But he gets returned if he has a rough ST in 2011.

[primetime714]

Laird and Zach mac are the only givens there. I think Kontos will be given a slot, as will Curtis. I read a quote somewhere that Cashman said Curtis would have been called up if not for his injury earlier this season.

The only other one who is close is maybe Suttle, as the power is not there, but he has nmised a full season last year, and his bat was a solid weapon when he was drafted.

Pendleton has actually had a decent year.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=459983

He was a College draftee from Rice. I think he was misused in College, as he had surgery in 2006, and missed almost 2 full seasons. Since then, in 2008 on, he has fashioned a nice career. His age is against him, but being a College draftee, and missing time with surgery is part of the reason. He may be worth a slot, although it depends on teh rest of the Yankees moves before the end of 2010.

IMO, he gets drafted if left exposed, by a team like KC or Pittsburgh. But he gets returned if he has a rough ST in 2011.

Agree on Laird and ZMach being the only guarantees. Kontos would need to prove he is healthy this year to be protected otherwise I think they would leave him off similar to how they handled Horne. If he makes it back this year for more than a spell and/or also pitches well in the AFL I think he'd be a likely pick, but right now I'm not expecting him to recover quickly enough to need to be protected. Colin Curtis is definitely a strong possibility depending on how he plays the rest of the year.

Suttle I don't think makes it. He likely won't make it to Trenton until the very end of the year at the earliest. Right now he is still working to get back to 100%, but even if he does that I don't think any team will take him and assume that he could skip from high A to the majors.

Sublett if not for the injury might've been a prime candidate, but he's out the picture now.

Pendleton is a strong possibility. It depends on how he pitches the rest of the year but he's certainly had his moments in Trenton so far.

Pope seems to have taken pretty well to the bullpen move as his strikeouts have skyrocketed since (15 in 8 innings pitched). He could definitely be a candidate to be protected.

Duff has a pretty good shot depending upon how he performs.

Krum I don't think has much of a shot, but if there is room he might get a spot by default.

Everybody else is probably a long shot at best.

[jesterno2]

i would expect about 5-6 of those spots to open up - albaladejo, one of mitre/gaudin, logan, chop, maybe thames and moeller.

i havent been following the minors nearly as much as in the past so i cant say definitively which guys i would keep. its kinda odd for me to look at the list of names and see how many of these guys i remember being drafted and having good hype and being draft V eligible already.

i know for sure that mcallister and curtis will be protected, sounds like laird has been playing well so him too.

i wouldnt be surprised by any of betances, kontos, pope, suttle, and duff based on draft status or upside.

[groundhoggator]

Yes, I know it is early in the season, but with the draft a week from today I decided to give us just that much time to discuss the Rule V situation so we can focus a little more on the draft a little later on.

Potential Free spots: Andy Pettitte, Chad Gaudin, Jon Albaladejo, Sergio Mitre, Chan Ho Park (DFA'd), Boone Logan, Juan Miranda, Marcus Thames, Chad Moeller (DFA'd), Reegie Corona, Javy Vazquez

That's 10 spots and likely we will not use that many considering we may need a reliever and new bench player and DH. Plus Corona might be nice to keep instead of DFAing

First Time Eligible: Ryan Pope, Brad Suttle, Adam Olbrychowski, Damon Sublett, Austin Krum, Justin Snyder, Craig Heyer, Brandon Laird, Dan Kapala, Matt Cusick, Charles Nolte, Phil Bartleski, Dellin Betances, Zach McAllister(traded), Noel Castillo, Jon Ortiz, Kelvin Perez, Dickson Marquez, Kelvin Castro, Walter Ibarra

2009 eligible: Colin Curtis (added), George Kontos, Tim Norton, Brian Baisley, Kevin Smith, Wilkins Arias, Melky Mesa, Jose Gil, Luis Nunez

2008 eligible: Lance Pendleton, Alan Horne, Eric Wordekemper, Kevin Whelan, Josh Schmidt, Marcos Vechionacci

2007 eligible: PJ Pillitere, Grant Duff

2005 eligible: Edwar Gonzalez
Laird and McAllister seem like the two obvious ones. Kontos and Curtis seem like good additions and Krum has played well recently. Of course Grant Duff has hit the spotlight. After that there are a lot of borderline guys and nobodies.

Who would you guys decide to protect?

With Sept 1st around the corner... a lot of call up decisions will revolve around upcoming Rule V draft and the 40 man roster.

Using SJKQW's model - I've updated Curtis being added and McAllister being traded. Also DFA'd were CHoP & Moeller.

I also feel space can be opened with DFA - WDR, Golson, Huffman

Additionally if i remember Rule V timeline - they don't have to count Jeter or Mo against their #'s - since they are technically FA's and deadline to offer Arb is after the draft.

While there are plenty of spots - I'd think they would only commit to Suttle, Laird, Mesa, Sublett, Betances, and possibly Pendleton (although I'd think he's a C+ prospect).

Thoughts?

[Matsui55]

With Sept 1st around the corner... a lot of call up decisions will revolve around upcoming Rule V draft and the 40 man roster.

Using SJKQW's model - I've updated Curtis being added and McAllister being traded. Also DFA'd were CHoP & Moeller.

I also feel space can be opened with DFA - WDR, Golson, Huffman

Additionally if i remember Rule V timeline - they don't have to count Jeter or Mo against their #'s - since they are technically FA's and deadline to offer Arb is after the draft.

While there are plenty of spots - I'd think they would only commit to Suttle, Laird, Mesa, Sublett, Betances, and possibly Pendleton (although I'd think he's a C+ prospect).

Thoughts?

Just a guess on my part, but I wonder whether the Yanks will try another mutli-prospect trade (of AAA/AA guys) to make the decisions easier.

[Matsui55]

Yes, I know it is early in the season, but with the draft a week from today I decided to give us just that much time to discuss the Rule V situation so we can focus a little more on the draft a little later on.

Potential Free spots: Andy Pettitte, Chad Gaudin, Jon Albaladejo, Sergio Mitre, Chan Ho Park, Boone Logan, Juan Miranda, Marcus Thames, Chad Moeller, Reegie Corona, Javy Vazquez

That's 10 spots and likely we will not use that many considering we may need a reliever and new bench player and DH. Plus Corona might be nice to keep instead of DFAing
First Time Eligible: Ryan Pope, Brad Suttle, Adam Olbrychowski, Damon Sublett, Austin Krum, Justin Snyder, Craig Heyer, Brandon Laird, Dan Kapala, Matt Cusick, Charles Nolte, Phil Bartleski, Dellin Betances, Zach McAllister, Noel Castillo, Jon Ortiz, Kelvin Perez, Dickson Marquez, Kelvin Castro, Walter Ibarra

2009 eligible: Colin Curtis, George Kontos, Tim Norton, Brian Baisley, Kevin Smith, Wilkins Arias, Melky Mesa, Jose Gil, Luis Nunez

2008 eligible: Lance Pendleton, Alan Horne, Eric Wordekemper, Kevin Whelan, Josh Schmidt, Marcos Vechionacci

2007 eligible: PJ Pillitere, Grant Duff

2005 eligible: Edwar Gonzalez
Laird and McAllister seem like the two obvious ones. Kontos and Curtis seem like good additions and Krum has played well recently. Of course Grant Duff has hit the spotlight. After that there are a lot of borderline guys and nobodies.

Who would you guys decide to protect?

Here are my edits:

Take Pettitte off the list- I think he's coming back.

Logan also comes off the list- he's becoming an effective LOOGY- and certainly better than Marte.

My list of guys likely leaving for roster spots:

DeLaRosa (he isn't progressing)
Gaudin (almost certain not to return)
Mitre (too many have passed him by- likely has no trade value)
Romulo Sanchez (too inconsistent in AAA to trust in NY)
Wood (likely will want more $$$ to return than the Yanks will want to give him)
Javy (gone as FA)
Berkman (unlikely to be offered arbitration; likely back to Houston)
Corona (with Pena and Nunez getting the AB's in NY, the writing is on the wall)
Miranda (out of options, will have to be exposed to waivers if can't make Yanks out of ST-likely non-tender)
Golson (what does he offer that Curtis and Gardner don't?)
Huffman (just AAA insurance- non-tender coming up)
Kearns (nice run, but he will likely be looking for a starting job somewhere)
Thames (good bench insurance, but offers nothing in the field)
NJ (already written off)

Possibilities if the roster gets tight:

Russo (grinder and Girardi appears to like him, but he's always going to be the 39th/40th guy)
Alby (had a great year- in AAA- do the Yanks trust him?)

That's 14 guys likely to leave, with 2 guys as wiggle room.

Let's assume Lee comes in to replace Vaz, so that makes it 13.

We should assume that the Yanks will bring in at least one veteran OF and one vet bench hitter over the winter, so we fall to 11. However, I think the bullpen is now likely to be built from within, so no subtractions likely there.

Let's add Laird, Montero, Betances, Mesa, Pendleton and Suttle. That takes you down to 5 spots. I don't see a big crush for spots this year.

[sjkqw]

Vechionacci, Whelan, Kontos, Norton and Duff could be some longshots if the Yankees decide we have the room. I feel like the Pendleton is probably on a list with them. Sublett and Krum won't be taken and neither will any reliever.

Norton and Duff probably won't be taken due to the injuries though that certainly won't stop someone. Kontos is recovering from injury. Whelan just promoted to AAA. Nacci is have an above average year finally. All in all I don't see these guys getting plucked from us let alone sticking on another MLB roster, but they are guys to consider. Personally, I don't think I would put any of them on. I would be fine with your list and then use the extra spots for a Rule 5 selection of our own.

[groundhoggator]

Here are my edits:

Take Pettitte off the list- I think he's coming back.

Logan also comes off the list- he's becoming an effective LOOGY- and certainly better than Marte.

My list of guys likely leaving for roster spots:

DeLaRosa (he isn't progressing)
Gaudin (almost certain not to return)
Mitre (too many have passed him by- likely has no trade value)
Romulo Sanchez (too inconsistent in AAA to trust in NY)
Wood (likely will want more $$$ to return than the Yanks will want to give him)
Javy (gone as FA)
Berkman (unlikely to be offered arbitration; likely back to Houston)
Corona (with Pena and Nunez getting the AB's in NY, the writing is on the wall)
Miranda (out of options, will have to be exposed to waivers if can't make Yanks out of ST-likely non-tender)
Golson (what does he offer that Curtis and Gardner don't?)
Huffman (just AAA insurance- non-tender coming up)
Kearns (nice run, but he will likely be looking for a starting job somewhere)
Thames (good bench insurance, but offers nothing in the field)
NJ (already written off)

Possibilities if the roster gets tight:

Russo (grinder and Girardi appears to like him, but he's always going to be the 39th/40th guy)
Alby (had a great year- in AAA- do the Yanks trust him?)

That's 14 guys likely to leave, with 2 guys as wiggle room.

Let's assume Lee comes in to replace Vaz, so that makes it 13.

We should assume that the Yanks will bring in at least one veteran OF and one vet bench hitter over the winter, so we fall to 11. However, I think the bullpen is now likely to be built from within, so no subtractions likely there.

Let's add Laird, Montero, Betances, Mesa, Pendleton and Suttle. That takes you down to 5 spots. I don't see a big crush for spots this year.

Two different items... predicting 40 man @ time for Rule V and 40 man roster heading back north.

As you listed above - this offseason kicks off a time of transition at all levels. First they have to decide how to handle the Jeter situation and that will translate to last slots of the 40 of how many "Pena's and Nunez" types we keep (agree with Corona assessment).

2nd - expect over 25% and as much as 40% turnover on the 40 man roster... the quality is lacking, and there are too many similar parts (kinda like keeping stale old batteries in the same draw hoping one works when you need it).

3rd.- Montero will NOT be added to the 40 any sooner than the end of spring training next year. Ultimately they need to decide if he will DH or will they attempt to refine his catching skills in SWB for the first 1/4 of next season. Given Posada's eroding skills (any greater likelihood of DH in 2011) i expect Cervelli to escape the guillotene initially (for his opening day salary) and be replaced with a veteran C who was offerred a minor league salary - knowing opportunity is there for a call-up. Romine will spend entire season in minors (between Trenton and SWB - based on Montero)

Here's guessing post Rule V 40 man

Pitchers (21 -> 17 named + 4 off season signings) - Aceves, Alby, Betances, Brackman, Burnett (despite best efforts to trade him), Chamberlin, Hughes, Lee, Logan, Marte, Noesi, Nova, Pendleton, Pettitte, Rivera, Robertson, Sabathia, + 4 relievers (my shock signing is Wood comes back)

Position Players - 19 - Posada, Cervelli; Texiera, Arod, Jeter, Cano, Pena, Nunez, Russo; Swisher, Gardner, Crawford (Grandy gets traded), Kearns, Thames (accepts bench role and thus is resigned), Curtis, Laird, Mesa, Suttle, - Last slot goes to Dunn (in a surprise - b/c he doesn't want to DH). I expect Montero will arrive in the Bronx around the Kentucky Derby in May.

[VTYankeesFan2]

George Kontos needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter to protect him from being picked by another team. Normally, a player coming off injury is safe, but I think Kontos did enough this year to make teams consider selecting him and I think it is very likely he will be selected if not protected. Since the Yankees currently have an issue with their bullpen guys getting worn down by heavy use and since Scranton is now eliminated, should the Yankees consider DFA'ing Corona and adding Kontos to get him to NY so he can handle some of the long-relief situations that could come up in the next 3 weeks? Outside of Igawa, he would seem to be the most likely choice. (Incidentally, Igawa shouldn't be discounted, as he could easily be dropped in the winter with no great loss to the Yankees and with the hope that he shows something and someone actually wants to trade for him.)

[primetime714]

George Kontos needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter to protect him from being picked by another team. Normally, a player coming off injury is safe, but I think Kontos did enough this year to make teams consider selecting him and I think it is very likely he will be selected if not protected. Since the Yankees currently have an issue with their bullpen guys getting worn down by heavy use and since Scranton is now eliminated, should the Yankees consider DFA'ing Corona and adding Kontos to get him to NY so he can handle some of the long-relief situations that could come up in the next 3 weeks? Outside of Igawa, he would seem to be the most likely choice. (Incidentally, Igawa shouldn't be discounted, as he could easily be dropped in the winter with no great loss to the Yankees and with the hope that he shows something and someone actually wants to trade for him.)

There's a pretty decent shot that Kontos gets protected in the offseason, but I don't see the team adding him now. He's not back to where he could make that jump and be effective. They should however drop Corona and bring up Royce Ring. We could use a second lefty in the bullpen especially with the way Girardi matches up.

Long relief will work itself out soon. As Hughes will rejoin the rotation this turn. Pettitte is making his last rehab start right now. With that in mind a 2nd lefty is definitely a bigger need and Ring has pitched really well all year.

[Matsui55]

George Kontos needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter to protect him from being picked by another team. Normally, a player coming off injury is safe, but I think Kontos did enough this year to make teams consider selecting him and I think it is very likely he will be selected if not protected. Since the Yankees currently have an issue with their bullpen guys getting worn down by heavy use and since Scranton is now eliminated, should the Yankees consider DFA'ing Corona and adding Kontos to get him to NY so he can handle some of the long-relief situations that could come up in the next 3 weeks? Outside of Igawa, he would seem to be the most likely choice. (Incidentally, Igawa shouldn't be discounted, as he could easily be dropped in the winter with no great loss to the Yankees and with the hope that he shows something and someone actually wants to trade for him.)

At $4M in 2011, there is NO way that anyone will want Igawa for ANY reason. Even though he's no longer on the 40, the Yanks should just admit that he is a sunk cost, release him, and let him go back to Japan.

[VTYankeesFan2]

Not sure I agree with you on Igawa. He will essentially be on a one year deal for 2011 at $4mil. If he can show that he can contribute out of the pen as a lefty specialist, he could be moved. There are plenty of lefties out there that stick around way beyond where then should because they simply throw left-handed. Hell, the Yankees have a guy in Marte that they are paying more than that to annually simply because he can get lefties out and he is never healthy. Igawa doesn't have the stuff that Marte does - when healthy - but at $4mil he is reasonably priced enough that a mid-market team could take a chance on him. The Yankees won't get anything for him, but the potential is there.

That being said, the chances of him coming to NY to get that shot now are about 0%, so I am not getting my hopes up. Since they have to pay him, they might as well keep him and let him help Scranton however he can. The teams in Japan don't want him anyway, so his only hope would be to pitch for Scranton or get moved somewhere else where he can hopefully get a shot.

[primetime714]

Not sure I agree with you on Igawa. He will essentially be on a one year deal for 2011 at $4mil. If he can show that he can contribute out of the pen as a lefty specialist, he could be moved. There are plenty of lefties out there that stick around way beyond where then should because they simply throw left-handed. Hell, the Yankees have a guy in Marte that they are paying more than that to annually simply because he can get lefties out and he is never healthy. Igawa doesn't have the stuff that Marte does - when healthy - but at $4mil he is reasonably priced enough that a mid-market team could take a chance on him. The Yankees won't get anything for him, but the potential is there.

That being said, the chances of him coming to NY to get that shot now are about 0%, so I am not getting my hopes up. Since they have to pay him, they might as well keep him and let him help Scranton however he can. The teams in Japan don't want him anyway, so his only hope would be to pitch for Scranton or get moved somewhere else where he can hopefully get a shot.

First off all no chance anyone would take on Igawa at 4M. Also I remember reading a while back that the reason we haven't traded him, bought him out or just cut him loose is that if we do move him whatever portion of that 4M we take on counts against the ML roster and thus we'd have to pay luxury tax on it. The same would happen if we added him to the 40 man again. Basically we're gonig to hide him away in AAA for another year and let this deal expire. At this point there is no other sensible option.

Also there is no potential there. He's 30 years old pitching to the tune of a 4.32 ERA in AAA. His stuff is mediocre, his control is terrible, he's widely inconsistent, and he has show no signs of improvement. This is not a ML pitcher probably not even in the NL. His only options when he becomes a FA will be to go back to Japan or to see if he can get a minor league deal with bottom feeder NL team that might give him a shot if he performs.

[parkerstrong]

First off all no chance anyone would take on Igawa at 4M. Also I remember reading a while back that the reason we haven't traded him, bought him out or just cut him loose is that if we do move him whatever portion of that 4M we take on counts against the ML roster and thus we'd have to pay luxury tax on it. The same would happen if we added him to the 40 man again. Basically we're gonig to hide him away in AAA for another year and let this deal expire. At this point there is no other sensible option.

Also there is no potential there. He's 30 years old pitching to the tune of a 4.32 ERA in AAA. His stuff is mediocre, his control is terrible, he's widely inconsistent, and he has show no signs of improvement. This is not a ML pitcher probably not even in the NL. His only options when he becomes a FA will be to go back to Japan or to see if he can get a minor league deal with bottom feeder NL team that might give him a shot if he performs.

Completely agree. I doubt the Yankees pay 3 million of his salary to move him and then pay 40% of the 3 million for the luxury tax. Its best to let him set AAA records and waste away down there.