With both of them in the bottom of the lineup, it gives opponents a different style to score. Top of the lineup is power/OBP and the bottom is speed. He can steal 50-60 bases this year. Even if his OPS is under .800, he would still be very effective.Originally Posted by JfromJersey
His OPS is under .700 right now and I've been happy with his play
Hoping Rivera can pitch forever!
Fire Thomson now!!!
Is that what it's called?He was over 80% last year and over 85% for his MilB career. He's an excellent base stealer. He'll look more comfortable as he sees more MLB pitchers moves. It's called experience.
Do tell.
"Whether they're offended or not, that's the way it is."
Ron Washington called Gardner "another Ichiro". I'd be happier with that comparison if he wasn't on crack.
Ron Washington is thinking too much.
Coke, not crack.
Alex Rodriguez
Career OPS: .965
Postseason OPS: .977
He'll have to fall flat on his face not to get 500 PA this year. Winn is clearly a D-replacement, PR, last gasp PH.
Thames will get the other 50-100 PA out of LF.
I'm real happy with Gardner. He's gotten some key 2 out RBIs and he's been a nice guy to have at the bottom of the lineup.
Gardner is not likely to post a really respectable OPS cause of his slugging, but he can still get on base enough and get his extra bases that way.
"No matter who you vote for, the government always gets in." - Bill Hicks
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand." - Leo Durocher
i keep saying it: if brett gets 500 ABs, he'll steal 50 bases. curtis looks like he's gonna break his own personal best of 26 as well.
Bring tea for the Tillerman; Steak for the son; Wine for the woman who made the rain come; Seagulls sing your hearts away; 'Cause while the sinners sin, the children play ...
OPS and OPS+ are not fair measuring stats for guys like Gardner because they don't take into consideration speed skills. Much better stats are wOBA and wRC+, and last year Gardner posted a wRC+ of (an above average) 107. For those not totally familiar with it here's an excellent article.
http://www.pinstripealley.com/2010/1...-battle-of-the
Finally, we come to the second finalist in our battle of the statistics: wRC+, or Weighted Runs Created Plus. For those of you who are good with analogies, wRC+ : wOBA :: OPS+ : OPS. Put simply, wRC+ takes wOBA, adjusts it for park factors, and then normalizes it so that league average in any given year is a wRC+ of 100. As you can see, wRC+ comes out looking just like OPS+, but it is based on the far more accurate wOBA. It also includes more information, like stealing bases.
While wRC+ might not be absolutely perfect, it is by far the best statistic we have to judge overall offensive production right now. You can find wRC+ on www.fangraphs.com under the "advanced" tab for hitters. With the advent of wOBA and wRC+, there is really no reason to ever use OPS or OPS+ ever again
#27and still Counting.
Gardner on WFAN right now
I have NO idea WTH you guys are talking about.
+1
The idea is good, but TWICE a GAME!!??? It's still 90' to first base, the pitcher is less than 57' away after coming off the rubber. If he's bunting twice a game, the 3 baseman is going to be 75' away and charging.
these ARE big leaguers.
If they know it's coming, he next to never gets a hit.
I want to see it too, but's it's got to be a surprise, or it doesn't work.
Every time I've seen him this year (not a lot), they've been in tight on him. I'd venture that everyone heard about his bunting threat if not just the speed factor causing it.
I'm sure that's why it hasn't happened yet. And how many at bats have had OTHER factors that removed bunting for a hit from his arsenal?
I'm hoping that the first time we see a 1st or 3d baseman playing him at normal depth that the bunt is on the ground. If not, THEN we'll have something to complain about. (if he doesn't get a normal hit)
the point i was trying to make all week is that with his speed, "slapping" the ball to the left side is going to have the same overall effect as a bunt for base hit attempt... it's goign to put the ball on the ground, give him an opportunity to use his greatest asset, and put a ton of pressure on a defense to field the ball properly and make a perfect throw- even the slightest bobble or mis-throw will result in him on first- as seen yesterday.Every time I've seen him this year (not a lot), they've been in tight on him. I'd venture that everyone heard about his bunting threat if not just the speed factor causing it.
I'm sure that's why it hasn't happened yet. And how many at bats have had OTHER factors that removed bunting for a hit from his arsenal?
I'm hoping that the first time we see a 1st or 3d baseman playing him at normal depth that the bunt is on the ground. If not, THEN we'll have something to complain about. (if he doesn't get a normal hit)
"You know what's coming," former Kansas City Royals first baseman Mike Sweeney once said, "but you know what's coming in horror movies too. It still gets you."
-"Mariano Saves," 10/5 S.I.
Fangraphs just updated. With last night's performance, Gardner's WRC+ is now 125 (higher than NJ's 120 and Swisher's 122, from our no. 9 hitter.)
Meanwhile, he's seeing 4.12P/PA, which is very very good.
wOBA includes base stealing, but not baserunning, if I understand correctly. Also, even that stuff doesn't take into account the effect of excessive pitch outs and throws-over.
"First batter up well here's the pitch: it's a curve. Second batter up because the first got served"
Just sayin'....
2010 Regular Season Record: 88-57
Right, so it still undervalues Gardner.
Brett Gardner's line:
.333BA/SLG
.444OBP
.778OPS
9R (on pace for 125, assuming 500PAs)
6SB (on pace for 83)
1CS (on pace for 14)
the CS is going to hurt his wRC+ but with going 2-3 with a BB and HBP should still net him an uptick.
And yes, Gardner has higher OBP than OBP Jesus himself.
Probably can't keep it up for the course of the season but this kid is really showing something. Kevin Long just might be right yet.
SSS and all other normal caveats. But it's very rare to see a player literally develop in front of our eyes.
The only other person as exciting right now is Hughes, and we get to see him less than once every 5 days.
That's my understanding also...it will account for stolen bases and CS but does not account for having to make pitchers work to keep him close (the papelbon AB comes to mind) while disrupting their concentration. It also doesn't account for him taking an extra base on a hit and perhaps staying out of DP's as a baserunner but is much better for comparing his offensive contributions to players with a different skill set like SLG than any other stat.
The actual formula for wOBA...
...then((0.72 x NIBB) + (0.75 x HBP) + (0.90 x 1B) + (0.92 x RBOE) + (1.24 x 2B) + (1.56 x 3B) + (1.95 x HR) + (.25 x SB) - (.50 x CS)) / PA
.wRC+ takes wOBA, adjusts it for park factors, and then normalizes it so that league average in any given year is a wRC+ of 100. As you can see, wRC+ comes out looking just like OPS+, but it is based on the far more accurate wOBA
#27and still Counting.
It's true that wOBA and wRC+ won't credit Gardner for distracting the pitcher, but luckily that effect is not totally lost-- we will see it in the hitter's wOBA/wRC+. Pitcher is distracted, pitches crappilly, gives up a hit, and there you go. If you have a large enough sample, you can compare the effect of Gardner on base before a batter and with no Gardner. I don't know of any other way to measure that.
He's exciting to watch when he's on base. I love the crouch he gets into with the arm cocked, ready to roll. Some people try to lull the pitcher to sleep, sneak a step in while the pitchers is in the stretch... Gardner's basically holding up a sign saying "second base is mine, beyotch"
Just sayin'....
BUT OMG! We don't have a slugging LF!
A fool and his money can throw one heck of a party!
gardner's not clutch like melky though
I still like Gardner over him. Upgrade in the outfield and should be exciting on the basepaths. His stolen base success rate is roughly 90%
numbers are pretty irrelevant when you can see with your own two eyes that melky was more clutch than brett last year... more game winning hits and more energy... plus, he was best friends with cano
i mean, melky even hit for the cycle last year
How do people still take flymick literally?
With friends like this, who needs enemies. Cano is destroying American league pitchers since he left. Just sayin...
melky also had a lot of unique handshakes and dances with his teammates... i don't see any such creativity from gardner
Looking at that picture above, Melky also has a double chin. It's where he stores all his clutchiness. Brett is too selfish to pack away some clutchfat.
Holy crap you can see energy?
Exactly, and the Melky jump was part of every win so he has to be team MVP.
#27and still Counting.
Bottom line:
Gardner brings something to teh Yankee lineup that they do not have otherwise. Pure speed, and the ability to know how to use it. He is no Ichiro (sorry Ron Washington), but he adds a dimension to the Yankees that they can use, especially when teh bats are otherwise quiet.
agreed. on that topic >>
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yanke...DhZfFUmWbFiqJN
PS as brett said himself, he still needs to get his swing together, IE more line drives, less slap-happy (he himself said he was not happy with his swing on one of the postgame shows). that said, he's coming off a great series and has been a solid contributor so far. he's gotta play LF all 3 games in oakland, pleeeeeeeeeaaaaase !!
Needs to be in the lineup, creates havoc on the bases. Thames sits till further notice.
Dumb & Dumber
Brett up to a way above average 152 wRC+ (with a .444 OBP). I guess him at least duplicating last years wRC+ of 107 over 500 AB's doesn't seem so far fetched.
Although Brett himself isn't satisfied with his swing yet (and neither am I), the biggest difference I've seen from him so far is that his off season work to hit less balls in the air and K less has paid off big time. He has gone from a GB/FB ratio last year of 1.00 to 2.86 and his K rate is down to 10% from 16% so far this year.
I suspect we wont be hearing any talk about him being no more than a 4th OF for a while.
Last edited by OldYankeeFan; 04-19-10 at 09:40 AM.
#27and still Counting.
i might sit nick and DH thames vs one of the LHPs in oakland, but brett in LF for sure.
e = mc^2, yo
"First batter up well here's the pitch: it's a curve. Second batter up because the first got served"
so the fatter you are, the more energy you have
Wow, a big thank you to this thread for introducing me to wOBA. That stat is amazing. I've been a little pissed off at various points that some of the sabermetrics people seem to scoff at speed and stolen bases and such, when it seemed clear to me that they were valuable. I'm glad there's something out there that takes these into account.
Don't get me wrong, I'd still take Melky in a heartbeat for his fun handshakes, but this is good stuff.
Yankee content on the blog:
http://SethCurrySavesDuke.blogspot.com
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Follow me on twitter: @SCurrySavesDuke
You're welcome. But don't forget about wRC+. It takes wOBA and then adjusts it for ballparks and league and then standardizes it to 100 for the average offensive player...it's just like what OPS+ does for OPS.
#27and still Counting.
I think that's Montero.
I wonder if it takes more energy to do a leaping high five or steal home. Probably the high five...
You know that is not true. A few of bad games and the questioning begins again.
I like what I saw in Gardner the last two days but am I convinced that he's turned the corner? No. I wasn't convinced last year when Melky shot out of the gate and was putting up great numbers. It's going to take more than two hot games to remove my skepticism or a few bad games to confirm my skepticism. (Even you stated that you were disappointed with his swing. That's my biggest concern. I don't have a lot of confidence in his long-term success with that swing.) I figure that I'll re-assess Gardner around the first of June.
"We look at Curtis as an everyday player, and you want to have consistency for that guy," Girardi said. "I still believe that Gardy has a chance to be an everyday player and is going to hit." http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/G...in-LF-99279421 (There are several other news reports around the same time that make the exact same inference that I did: "has a chance" = "has not yet proven.")
My thoughts exactly.
I have no association with "TEPLimey" at nomaas. Apparently a very disturbed individual likes to get their rocks off on pretending they are me. Sad, really.
IDK how anyone can complain about Brett's performance thus far.
What I find most humerous is that the anti Gardner people will be the first to jump up and down and declare that his last years wRC+ of 107 is irrelevant because it was only in 284 PA, yet they would use the stats of only a few bad games that might bring his OBP down to a dreadful .400 to prove their point that he is merely a 4th OF.
Other than hate or pigheadedness, is there really ANY other reason why this makes sense?
#27and still Counting.
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