It's All About the Pitching, Stupid.

[PittsburghYankeeFan]

This is the first time since i joined this forum 5 years ago that i have started a thread. The title says it all.

I remember my first post here--a debate about whether the starting pitching or the clutch hitting won the four championships. We went on and on looking at the linescores from every postseason since 1996. This was in the wake of the Kevin Brown game 7 2004 debacle.

Bottom line. Starting pitching, followed closely in this era by lockdown closing, wins titles.

Period.

Yes, it's fun to talk about chemistry, ARod and Kate, the Core Four, Thrillas from Gozillas, and all that. At the end of the day, however, a well quoted but often overlooked baseball fact in that it's much easier to throw a ball where you want to than hit it where you want to.

When your guys are studs who can throw the ball where they want to, you win. A lot.

The Yankees have finally realized this.

God help the rest of baseball.

[Tifoso]

Agree absolutely completely.

Which is why #1 priority in the offseason is a PS caliber SP (1 if Andy stays; otherwise 2).

We need to have a 4 man rotation. Period.

And, with all due respect, neither Joba nor Phil are in that 4 (yet).

We could live with an OF as presently constitued (-Damon, who coDH's with JoPo) and a minor league callup

[ppa79]

And, with all due respect, neither Joba nor Phil are in that 4 (yet).

Its a waste to put them in the bullpen. We need starters next year. Either let them start or trade one of them for a stud starter.

[WWJD]

Agree absolutely completely.

Which is why #1 priority in the offseason is a PS caliber SP (1 if Andy stays; otherwise 2).

We need to have a 4 man rotation. Period.

And, with all due respect, neither Joba nor Phil are in that 4 (yet).

We could live with an OF as presently constitued (-Damon, who coDH's with JoPo) and a minor league callup

I think we could get away with one even if Andy retires if it's a Lackey type but 2 would be definitely nice as well

[continentalg5]

Open question: possible run at Lackey, or do you think the Yanks will make Joba/Phil fight for the SP slot?

And what do we do with Wang?

[Tifoso]

Open question: possible run at Lackey, or do you think the Yanks will make Joba/Phil fight for the SP slot?

And what do we do with Wang?

Lackey (or equivalent)

Let Joba and Phil fight to be Mo's heir. "Loser" is the 8th inning guy.

Wang might not be back until July....

[JeterHughesJoba]

Lackey (or equivalent)

Let Joba and Phil fight to be Mo's heir. "Loser" is the 8th inning guy.

Wang might not be back until July....

Unfortunately, I don't think the Yankees can count on Wang ever returning back to form. If he does great, but just to assume it.

Considering their youth and potential, the Yankees need to give both Joba and Hughes every shot to become starters this year. If they succeed, they will be much more valuable as starters than relievers. That being said, I think Joba can be a good #4 next year and throw a good amount of innings, but Hughes will have the same innings limit that Joba has this year. Overall, it's too much of risk to have both of these kids starting in the current rotation. That's why I think the Yankees should push hard for Lackey as a true #2 starter.

[Rocketbooster]

Lackey (or equivalent)

Let Joba and Phil fight to be Mo's heir. "Loser" is the 8th inning guy.

Wang might not be back until July....

Completely disagree............we have two potential studs (can we be a little patient with them?) for the rotation (for years) and we're going to ship one of them to the pen (after a competition to see who "loses" no less)? It's moot anyway as the Yankees believe in these kids as SP.

[ThePinStripes]

Both are necessary, neither is sufficient its own. I do agree that given the choice, I'd take a top flight starter in the playoffs over a top tier hitter any day. The playoffs are just a different beast, where a dominant starting pitcher can pitch as much as half of the series (go twice in a 4 game series) or even 3 of 7 games(43%). At worst, they are pitching 2/7 (28%) games. In the regular season, it's 1/5 (20%).

A dominant pitcher can shut down a good line up (Lee, CC, etc). But in terms of off-season acquisitions, you need to consider a few things. First, you should be mindful of injury risks between the two in any given season. Second, consider that the pitcher pitches once every 4 games. He can shut down the batter in that game, but the batter is going to be there for the next 3 games + the reliever that comes in after the dominant starting pitcher. Lastly, consider how much harder it is to get a 135 ERA+ pitcher than a 135OPS+ hitter.

There are always a few solid 130-ish OPS hitters on the market. That's not the case with pitchers, and they rarely hit the FA market. They often get traded+extended meaning they cost money and prospects.

So really, it's not an issue of "which is better;" clearly, pitching is king in the post season. Given that every organization has limited resources (yes, even the Yankees)- the real question is what gives you the best production relative to the cost. I'd bet it's closer than you think.



BTW:

[PittsburghYankeeFan]

I think they stand pat if Pettitte returns and give Wang an incentive laden offer to avoid a non-tender.

Great SP is on the market next off season--I'd wait for that before committing to Lackey.

For YS, you want powerguys, sinkerballers, or lefties. I think Lackey would dominate the NL, and my guess is that's where he's going.

PS--or Texas, where he's from and where Nolan Ryan is probably salivating over him.

[NYYDragoon]

Funny thing is, we did it with only THREE starters from August. We're not getting away with that next season.

[YankeesFanJS]

I don't really see Pettitte coming back...I may be wrong, but I think he is going to retire on top of the world.

I doubt the Yankees go too hard for Lackey. I don't think they're ready to commit the type of money again like they did this past offseason. They need to pursue a number 3 starter and maybe a 4 guy as well (depends on where they see Joba in the future). If they are hell bent on making this guy a starter than this offseason will show it. Hughes deserves another chance to be a starter IMO. See how Joba & Phil do, the one who shows inconsistency and lack of effectiveness in the rotation gets relegated to the pen as a setup guy...not a bad scenario IMHO

[Rocketbooster]

I don't really see Pettitte coming back...I may be wrong, but I think he is going to retire on top of the world.

I doubt the Yankees go too hard for Lackey. I don't think they're ready to commit the type of money again like they did this past offseason. They need to pursue a number 3 starter and maybe a 4 guy as well (depends on where they see Joba in the future). If they are hell bent on making this guy a starter than this offseason will show it. Hughes deserves another chance to be a starter IMO. See how Joba & Phil do, the one who shows inconsistency and lack of effectiveness in the rotation gets relegated to the pen as a setup guy...not a bad scenario IMHO

I think that's a horrible scenario - that is a god-awful way to develop starting pitching.

[MooseDaGun]

I really, really, really wish the Yankees could figure out where Joba's velocity went. He could get away with a lot if he's sitting in the mid-to-upper 90s with his fastball in the rotation.

[junkman73]

I really, really, really wish the Yankees could figure out where Joba's velocity went. He could get away with a lot if he's sitting in the mid-to-upper 90s with his fastball in the rotation.

I think Joba's velocity is fine. He threw hard in the playoffs as a reliever. He didn't have the stamina to throw 95+ on a consistent basis throwing 100 pitches.

I think he hit the wall somewhere between 100-120IP. Next year hopefully that number gets a little higher.

I wouldn't mind Lackey if they can keep it to a 3 year deal. He's 32 already. We don't need him and AJ both over 35 making big money 3 years from now.

[thaa]

I think Joba's velocity is fine. He threw hard in the playoffs as a reliever. He didn't have the stamina to throw 95+ on a consistent basis throwing 100 pitches. ....

Then I doubt he'll have the stamina to do it in '10, and in that case he'll have the same problems he had in '09.

[Andrew0682]

I honestly think we need to end the so called "Joba Experiment" The difference between this guy as a starter and in the pen is like black and white.

I would personally like to see them try to work Hughes back into starter form. He has more arm strength and durability then Joba does. I just don't know if Joba can make it through a complete season year in and year out. Having a guy like Joba who can be so dominant before giving the ball to MO is such a valuable asset. I think we can all agree how nice it is to know that we only have to play 8 innings with a lead.

Leave Joba in the pen to set up for Mo, let Mo take him under his wing. Let Hughes become a starter again. He has the stuff for it.

[DiMaggio5CF]

I honestly think we need to end the so called "Joba Experiment" The difference between this guy as a starter and in the pen is like black and white.

I would personally like to see them try to work Hughes back into starter form. He has more arm strength and durability then Joba does. I just don't know if Joba can make it through a complete season year in and year out. Having a guy like Joba who can be so dominant before giving the ball to MO is such a valuable asset. I think we can all agree how nice it is to know that we only have to play 8 innings with a lead.

Leave Joba in the pen to set up for Mo, let Mo take him under his wing. Let Hughes become a starter again. He has the stuff for it.

I agree. Plus, the way that Hughes seemed overwhelmed in the playoffs--not that he can't overcome that--I think he might be more comfortable as a starter where you can ease into games and settle down rather than a short reliever who has to come into high-pressure situations and be dominant right from pitch number one.

[Rocketbooster]

I agree. Plus, the way that Hughes seemed overwhelmed in the playoffs--not that he can't overcome that--I think he might be more comfortable as a starter where you can ease into games and settle down rather than a short reliever who has to come into high-pressure situations and be dominant right from pitch number one.

Phil did brilliantly under pressure situations in the regular season. I'm not sure what happened to him in the post-season (maybe he was tired, who knows?), but it had nothing to do with him being a reliever..........

[ThePinStripes]

I honestly think we need to end the so called "Joba Experiment" The difference between this guy as a starter and in the pen is like black and white.

I would personally like to see them try to work Hughes back into starter form. He has more arm strength and durability then Joba does. I just don't know if Joba can make it through a complete season year in and year out. Having a guy like Joba who can be so dominant before giving the ball to MO is such a valuable asset. I think we can all agree how nice it is to know that we only have to play 8 innings with a lead.

Leave Joba in the pen to set up for Mo, let Mo take him under his wing. Let Hughes become a starter again. He has the stuff for it.

He did worse as a reliever than a starter.

[DiMaggio5CF]

Funny thing is, we did it with only THREE starters from August. We're not getting away with that next season.

Exactly. I think the Yankees know now that they need six starters. Look where Wang-Mussina-Pettitte-Hughes-Chamberlain got us, and look where Sabathia-Wang-Burnett-Pettitte-Chamberlain got us. The first set crumbled and did nothing. The second set was strong enough to completley lose the #2 guy, have the #5 guy stink up the joint, have Hughes come back in for some starts, have some guys like Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin get starts, and still win the World Series. The second rotation was a lot stronger and deeper, and it could handle the bumps in the road that killed the first one.

And now that the rotation is only Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte, and maybe not even Pettitte, that's not strong enough. Even if you add in Hughes and Chamberlain, that's probably not strong enough to handle the bumps in the road (and it would ridiculously weaken the bullpen). I'll be honest, I never thought Burnett would stay healthy this year, and he proved me wrong. But the guy still does have a huge injury history, and staying healthy for two full years doesn't mean he's not still a ticking time bomb.

I think you put Chamberlain in your bullpen, make Hughes the fifth starter, keep Gaudin and add another option to take starts if necessary, and go after a #3/4 starter. Sabathia-Burnett-Lackey-Pettitte-Hughes(-Gaudin/other) or Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte-Washburn-Hughes(-Gaudin/other) are options I can live with. But if the Yankees don't realize that their manager was in a tough spot and was accused of almost blowing the series all because he just didn't have a fourth starter, they might overlook a need on this team.

[NYYDragoon]

Exactly. I think the Yankees know now that they need six starters. Look where Wang-Mussina-Pettitte-Hughes-Chamberlain got us, and look where Sabathia-Wang-Burnett-Pettitte-Chamberlain got us. The first set crumbled and did nothing. The second set was strong enough to completley lose the #2 guy, have the #5 guy stink up the joint, have Hughes come back in for some starts, have some guys like Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin get starts, and still win the World Series. The second rotation was a lot stronger and deeper, and it could handle the bumps in the road that killed the first one.

And now that the rotation is only Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte, and maybe not even Pettitte, that's not strong enough. Even if you add in Hughes and Chamberlain, that's probably not strong enough to handle the bumps in the road (and it would ridiculously weaken the bullpen). I'll be honest, I never thought Burnett would stay healthy this year, and he proved me wrong. But the guy still does have a huge injury history, and staying healthy for two full years doesn't mean he's not still a ticking time bomb.

I think you put Chamberlain in your bullpen, make Hughes the fifth starter, keep Gaudin and add another option to take starts if necessary, and go after a #3/4 starter. Sabathia-Burnett-Lackey-Pettitte-Hughes(-Gaudin/other) or Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte-Washburn-Hughes(-Gaudin/other) are options I can live with. But if the Yankees don't realize that their manager was in a tough spot and was accused of almost blowing the series all because he just didn't have a fourth starter, they might overlook a need on this team.

I wanted to agree with this until your last paragraph. Joba's going to be a normal starter (that is, without any dumb rules) in 2010 and Hughes will probably be on the Joba 2009 path (but hopefully one that's less made up as they go along). This could sorta solve the starting problem, but it opens up holes in the pen.

As for Andy, he said on Letterman that he's probably not retiring this winter.

[DiMaggio5CF]

I wanted to agree with this until your last paragraph. Joba's going to be a normal starter (that is, without any dumb rules) in 2010 and Hughes will probably be on the Joba 2009 path (but hopefully one that's less made up as they go along). This could sorta solve the starting problem, but it opens up holes in the pen.

As for Andy, he said on Letterman that he's probably not retiring this winter.

I'm back to being a Joba-in-the-pen guy. But if they are going to put them both in the rotation, they're going to have to seriously upgrade the bullpen.

[SoCal Pinstriper]

I'm back to being a Joba-in-the-pen guy. But if they are going to put them both in the rotation, they're going to have to seriously upgrade the bullpen.

I would let Joba/Phil compete for one rotation spot. Neither has shown that they deserve to be awarded a starting role based on performance to date.

I continue to hope that both will end up as solid 3-4 guys, but the jury is out.

[NYYDragoon]

I'm back to being a Joba-in-the-pen guy. But if they are going to put them both in the rotation, they're going to have to seriously upgrade the bullpen.

It's sad to see you go .

Competing for a rotation spot in ST may be a good idea, given that it seemed to do wonders for Melky and Gardner this season. But that assumes that we have a limited number of spots for which to compete. Right now that's not the case.

[Yanks4eva1]

This is the first time since i joined this forum 5 years ago that i have started a thread. The title says it all.

Bottom line. Starting pitching, followed closely in this era by lockdown closing, wins titles.

Period.

When your guys are studs who can throw the ball where they want to, you win. A lot.

The Yankees have finally realized this.

God help the rest of baseball.

The very first thing Mama taught me about baseball. Thank you.

[YankeePride1967]

You absolutely need great pitching, but even great pitching doesn't succeed 100% of the time which is why you also need the hitting. Balance wins. You can't win without both, just ask the Braves of the 90's.

[Zimmers' Helmet]

You absolutely need great pitching, but even great pitching doesn't succeed 100% of the time which is why you also need the hitting. Balance wins. You can't win without both, just ask the Braves of the 90's.

The Braves of the 90's were done in by a revolving door of closers throughout the decade. Great starting pitching but their Achilles Heel was their bullpen.

I disagree to an extent that you can't win with great pitching alone. The 1963 and 1965 Dodgers were amongst the most putrid teams hitting-wise of all time but won World Championships both years on the shoulders of Koufax and Drysdale.

[YankeePride1967]

The Braves of the 90's were done in by a revolving door of closers throughout the 90's. Great starting pitching but their Achilles Heel was their bullpen.

I disagree to an extent that you can't win with great pitching alone. The 1963 and 1965 Dodgers were amongst the most putrid teams hitting-wise of all time but won World Championships both years on the shoulders of Koufax and Drysdale.

Okay, you can win with dominant pitchers, but you also need to score runs. There is always the exception to the rule and you did provide two great examples of them.

[Zimmers' Helmet]

Okay, you can win with dominant pitchers, but you also need to score runs. There is always the exception to the rule and you did provide two great examples of them.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that hitting is important as well. Ideally, you want both. It's just that I have yet to see a team win a championship on hitting alone where as on the other hand, I have seen teams win exclusively with pitching alone (although not very frequently).

If I had to choose only one to build a team upon, I would choose pitching 10 times out of 10 because of that.

[YankeesFanJS]

Don't get me wrong, I agree that hitting is important as well. Ideally, you want both. It's just that I have yet to see a team win a championship on hitting alone where as on the other hand, I have seen teams win exclusively with pitching alone (although not very frequently).

If I had to choose only one to build a team upon, I would choose pitching 10 times out of 10 because of that.

absolutely, you build teams from the pitcher's mound. great pitching gives even terrible teams a CHANCE to win...how else can you describe Grienke's win total this year?

[Zimmers' Helmet]

Pitching is everything. While hitting is obviously an important element as well, the foundation of every championship ball club has been strong pitching depth.

The Yankees are in pretty good shape heading into 2010, especially if Pettitte comes back for one last season. There are plenty of viable in house candidates to fill out the 4th and 5th spots of the rotation. The Yankees don't need to break the bank for pitching like they did last winter.

I predict a breakout season for Joba next year (as a starter) and believe that 2009 was a huge learning experience for him.

Guys like Hughes and Robertson are only going to improve with time. Kennedy may yet develop into a solid major league pitcher and the Yankees still have Melancon waiting in the wings.

If Wang comes back and reverts back to his pre-2009 form, this rotation could potentially become dominant.

My only concern with this pitching staff is the depth of the bullpen. If Hughes and Joba both rejoin the rotation in 2010, there are plenty of question marks once you get past Mo and Robertson. Can Marte remain healthy and effective? Can Bruney bounce back? If there is one area of the pitching staff that Cashman needs to focus on this winter, it should be the bullpen.

The game may constantly evolve but pitching remains the most essential ingredient of any championship ball club.

[caniac23]

IDK about Lackey. 31 or 32 years old, probably wants a 4 year contract I'm guessing... Definitely need another top starter, and Lackey can handle the workload... but already that prime-ish age. IDK..

[shotz]

good pitching shuts down good hitting.

[TheGameEpisode2]

While I agree with the point of the post, hitting is definitely necessary. Look at the Giants and Braves, both had shut down pitching, but that doesn't mean much when your offense doesn't score runs.

Lesson- you need offense to get you to the postseason, pitching to win it.


Back to the topic though, I would love to see the Yanks go hard after Lackey. I can assume that Chapman will be a Yankee as well. Offense can go to an OFer like a Byrd or something and just resign Damon to get some flexibility out there.

A rotation of CC-Lackey-AJ-Pettitte/Joba/Hughes/Wang/Chapman is sweeeeeeet.

[BronxYanks45]

Wang and Melancon for Halladay

make it happen

but yeah I'd rather have another good SP than another bat

[joflo]

Wang and Melancon for Halladay

make it happen

but yeah I'd rather have another good SP than another bat

The price will be higher than that.

[DiMaggio5CF]

The price will be higher than that.

Agreed. For those two, we have to get Lind too.

[joflo]

Agreed. For those two, we have to get Lind too.

LOL, Joltin' Joe.

[ppa79]

Wang and Melancon for Halladay

make it happen

but yeah I'd rather have another good SP than another bat

The price should be similar to what the Phillies gave up for Lee. Maybe slightly less because now you get Halladay for 1 season.

[teknetic]

He's a far better pitcher and he'd be getting traded to a division "rival" It'll cost a lot more than what Lee did for the Phils.

[thaa]

He's a far better pitcher and he'd be getting traded to a division "rival" It'll cost a lot more than what Lee did for the Phils.

This is only probably true for Halladay. The Jays realize they over-asked (whether "in-division" or "out-of-division"). They also know they're a long way from being a contender with the top 3, and that, in short, means R.H. is unhappy. His own biological clock is ticking, and he, too, would like to be in a big parade, whether in New York or Boston or somewhere else. If he isn't traded before next season, the Jays are going to take a bath.

[joflo]

The price should be similar to what the Phillies gave up for Lee. Maybe slightly less because now you get Halladay for 1 season.

Halladay's been more consistent than Lee and is only a year and a half older. Plus there will be more teams in the mix.

[Joba-Walkee]

Wang and Melancon for Halladay

make it happen

but yeah I'd rather have another good SP than another bat

Jeez, that's all you think we can get for Wang? You sure we can't somehow get the Mariners, Giants, and Royals involved to swing Hernandez, Lincecum, and Greinke our way?

[AWDean]

You have to forget about Wang - they might not even try to bring him back. While Joba looks like he should be the setup guy, they're probably putting him back in the rotation. They can always move him back to the pen, but they can't go the other way again. Hughes might start in the rotation, but his innings will be severely restricted. He couldn't start out any higher than #5, and it probably makes more sense for him to pitch out of the pen for the first couple months of the season. Cutting him back at the end of the year, as they did with Joba, would be a mistake. The bullpen could be strong without either Joba or Hughes, with Robertson, Marte, Coke, Bruney, Melancon. They started this season with Veras, Bruney, Ramirez and Marte and finished the regular season with Hughes, Robertson, Aceves and Coke, so Girardi clearly knows what he's doing. They'll figure it out.

If they're going to be spending free agent dollars, I'd much rather see them add a guy like Lackey than someone like Bay or Holliday, even if they decide to not bring back Matsui.

[YankeePride1967]

I will say this, while the 2009 Yanks had better pitching than they did since 2003, they wouldn't have won if they didn't have the hitting they did. Also we won basically with 4 pitchers, 2 of which pitched lights out (CC and Mo), 1 was either great or lousy (AJ) and the other was good (Andy) and great hitting.

[PittsburghYankeeFan]

All a SP has to do is keep the game within 1-2 runs for this team, and they have a decent chance of winning. The hitting is that good.

However, you need guys to consistently go out and give 6 IP, 3ER. Do that, and you can win 90-100 relatively easily. It's rare that a ML batting order is so putrid that they cannot score 3-4 runs per game on average.

In the playoffs, where there are only 17 games to win 11, these issues are magnified. In the old days, where there were only 7 games to win 4, it was even more important.

The Yankee have stabilized their pitching issues. I think Pettitte gives them one more year, and then Roy Halliday is a Yankee by 2011 to take his place (don't you think Burnett is going to talk to him).

Joba and Hughes will become stud #2 or #3 types, with an outside chance at #1 for each. They are both 23--give them a break. Adam Wainwright of the Cards is a good comparison.

[Rocketbooster]

All a SP has to do is keep the game within 1-2 runs for this team, and they have a decent chance of winning. The hitting is that good.

However, you need guys to consistently go out and give 6 IP, 3ER. Do that, and you can win 90-100 relatively easily. It's rare that a ML batting order is so putrid that they cannot score 3-4 runs per game on average.

In the playoffs, where there are only 17 games to win 11, these issues are magnified. In the old days, where there were only 7 games to win 4, it was even more important.

The Yankee have stabilized their pitching issues. I think Pettitte gives them one more year, and then Roy Halliday is a Yankee by 2011 to take his place (don't you think Burnett is going to talk to him).

Joba and Hughes will become stud #2 or #3 types, with an outside chance at #1 for each. They are both 23--give them a break. Adam Wainwright of the Cards is a good comparison.

I don't see Halladay as a Yankee at all........he's going to be traded this year, maybe to the Sox (and he'll get an extension).

CC
AJ
Andy *hopefully
Joba
Phil....

The last two have such great upsides. I'm not sure what to think about Joba; first thing he needs to do is work hard during the off-season and stay in shape. Phil will probably start in the pen to keep his innings down. I can't wait for another year or two, when these kids start hitting their strides (they have more than outside chances to be #1 starters, but we have to be patient with them). For now, we need another pitcher.........maybe Aceves ? Also, if Andy returns, we have to hope that he can give us what he did this year..........that may be asking a lot.

[TheGameEpisode2]

Yeah I'm not giving up on Joba yet. He showed flashes and had stretches that showed what he can be. I think when they finally take the kids glove off of him is when he finally shines (though I think the Yankees did the right thing. I'd rather them be too careful with somebody then not careful enough).

[ThePinStripes]

Yeah I'm not giving up on Joba yet. He showed flashes and had stretches that showed what he can be. I think when they finally take the kids glove off of him is when he finally shines (though I think the Yankees did the right thing. I'd rather them be too careful with somebody then not careful enough).

He's going through lumps like young starters do. Verlander did it in 2008 and almost won a CY in 2009... and Verlander is 2 years older than Joba with less "stuff."

Something tells me this season was a wake up call for Joba. He's going to bust his ass this off season and dominate next year.