Rule 5 Draft Discussion

[budstinks]

Some guys will definitely be DFA'd. A bunch of players will be DFA'd across MLB, making a glut for most teams. Some of the better will be plucked. But remember, if plucked in the rule 5 they have to stay on the ML roster.

Starting Pitchers. (14) Obviously, some may end up in pen

Wang
Chamberlain
Hughes
Aceves
Kennedy
H. Sanchez
Horne
Garcia
C. Wright
Brackman
Dunn
Hacker
De La Rosa
Jackson

Bullpen Arms (10)

Mo
Robertson
Veras
Edwar
Marte
Coke
Claggett
Whelan
Albaledejo
Bruney

Position Players 13

Posada
Molina
Miranda
Cano
Jeter
Arod
Swisher
Damon
Melky
Gardner
Nady
Matsui
Cervelli

So theres 37

Anson
R. Pena

A free agent or two?

Mussina/Pettitte won't be resigned til after the Rule 5 draft. If resigned.

Did I forget anyone? Giese, Ransom, Rasner will be DFA'd.

[TheHugeUnit2]

I don't think Giese will be DFA. In fact I think he gets a spot in the bullpen on opening day as the long man. We just traded Betemit too, why would we DFA Ransom?

[budstinks]

Because its likely neither would be claimed.

Utility men are a dime a dozen, can't waste a space on Ransom . Odds are you'd just resign him or sign an upgrade after the rule 5. (when you can place players back on the DL and open up spaces).

Geise is a tougher one. He is 32 (May). But he's put back to back good years together (mostly in AAA). Much better than I thought before you mentioned him.

I would maybe give him that last spot or keep him over Steven Jackson. I would definitely give him more consideration than I did before your post. Good point.

[TheHugeUnit2]

Four open spots now after Rasner was sold.

[mbn007]

Hopefully, you wil have to add CC soon.

[stupidpunchline]

I'd sooner protect JB Cox than Whelan or Claggett.

[wang+cano=future]

I want to see atleast Cox, Garcia and Whelan protected. Do Corona, Nunez and Pena need to be protected as well?

[TheHugeUnit2]

Do Corona, Nunez and Pena need to be protected as well?

Pena and Corona do, I'm not sure on nunez.

[VTYankeesFan2]

Starting Pitchers. (14) Obviously, some may end up in pen

Wang
Chamberlain
Hughes
Aceves
Kennedy
H. Sanchez
Horne
Garcia
C. Wright
Brackman
Dunn
Hacker
De La Rosa
Jackson

Bullpen Arms (10)

Mo
Robertson
Veras
Edwar
Marte
Coke
Claggett
Whelan
Albaledejo
Bruney

Position Players 13

Posada
Molina
Miranda
Cano
Jeter
Arod
Swisher
Damon
Melky
Gardner
Nady
Matsui
Cervelli

So theres 37

I am trying to compare the true 40-man roster to this proposal, so I can see where the major differences are. Based on what I can see, Britton, Giese, Duncan, Christian, Ransom were dropped (Mitre is also listed on the MLB website as being on the 40-man roster, but I am pretty sure that is wrong). That brings the Yankees to 31 players on the roster at this point. We have 6 proposed additions to the roster, all pitchers. That leaves the Yankees at 37 players. Assuming that 3 starters are signed, the roster will be full.

The challenge here is that Giese, Britton, Christian and Ransom don't necessarily deserve to be dropped, as they really have done nothing wrong. (Nice problem to have for sure.) In addition, Stephen Jackson would seem to be a toss up to be added, as I see his skill sets being less than other arms such as Whalen, Melancon, Sanchez, et al.

The main guys that need to be protected - Horne, Garcia, Whalen, Claggett and Dunn are included, and I hope that is the case. Cox needs to be considered as well. Pena, Nunez and Corona all seem to be utility type guys at this point, so I am not sure how we could make an arguement to protect them but cut Ransom loose, especially since Ranson would likely help the Yankees in 2009, while the others are still at least a year away.

[hallofamer2000]

I want to see atleast Cox, Garcia and Whelan protected. Do Corona, Nunez and Pena need to be protected as well?

I think Corona and Pena are Rule V eligible, but I do not think they are worthy of being protected.

[TheHugeUnit2]

The way Whelan walks people it would be like getting a free 25K since no one is going to keep him.

[primetime714]

The way Whelan walks people it would be like getting a free 25K since no one is going to keep him.

Yea I can't see him making a 25-man roster he's still a big time project and the problems he has are not really ones you can work through at the major league level. He is still probably a full year away from even sniffing the major league level.

[thenextandykosco]

As of 8:05 p.m. (EST) on 11/17/2008, the 40-man roster seems to include 36 players, and neither Horne, nor Garcia, nor Jackson, nor Dunn, nor Claggett, nor Whelan, nor Pena, nor Anson, nor Mussina, nor Pettitte, nor Giambi, nor Pavano, nor Ponson, nor Abreu, nor Moeller, nor I. Rodriguez, nor Sergio Mitre is among the 36. S. Duncan, Britton, Giese, Ransom, and Christian are among the 36. VTYankeesFan2 is correct that Sergio Mitre was signed to a minor league contract even though the Yankees' official website incorrectly reports that Mitre is on the 40-man roster. The same website contains verbatim quotes from Cashman in press releases reporting Mitre's contract as minor league.

The deadline for setting the major and minor league reserve lists is 11/20/2008. The major league reserve list is the 40-man roster. Players on the 40-man roster are not subject to selection in the Rule 5 draft. A player not on the 40-man roster may still be exempt from the December 2008 Rule 5 draft if the player signed his first minor league contract before attaining age 19 and actually started playing in the minor leagues in 2005 or later, or if the player signed his first minor league contract after attaining age 19 and actually started playing in the minor leagues in 2006 or later.

I count at least 45 players currently under minor league contract to the Yankee organization who would be subject to being selected in the Rule 5 draft unless something changes before the end of the day on 11/20/2008.

The 45 Rule 5 eligible players include 27 pitchers. The pitchers are J.B. Cox, Steven Jackson, Eric Wordekemper, Zach Kroenke, Sergio Mitre, Jason Jones, Kevin Whelan, Anthony Claggett, Mike Gardner, Brett Smith, Wilkins Arias, Christian Garcia, Michael Dunn, Ronny Marte, Noel Castillo, Grant Duff, Jesse Hoover, Garrett Patterson, Josh Schmidt, Rob Semerano, Jason Stephens, Jonathan Ortiz, Lance Pendleton, Angel Reyes, Jacinto Gonell, Josue Selenes, and Kelvin Perez.

I count 5 catchers who will be eligible for selection. They are Joe Muich, P.J. Pilittere, Kyle Anson, Jose Gill, and Eladio Rodriguez.

Nine infielders. They are Eric Duncan, Ramiro Pena, Reegie Corona, Chris Malec, Marcos Vechionacci, Eduardo Nunez, Luis Nunez, Wady Rufino, and Roy Gomez.

Four outfielders. Tim Battle, James Cooper, Melky Mesa, and Josue Calzado.

In recent years, the Yankees have done a pretty good job of fairly evaluating their talent and have been able to protect almost everyone that anyone would want in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. The recent draftees, Colter Bean and Mike Gardner, were both returned to the Yankee organization by the drafting teams before the following April.

I think that the Yankees will add 1 or more of the aforementioned minor leaguers to the 40-man roster before the end of the day on 11/20/2008. The Yankees have traditionally waited until the afternoon of the very last day to make their move. If I had to guess, and it is just a guess, I would say that the Yankees would add at least 3, being J.B. Cox, Jason Jones, and Christian Garcia. If they add 4, the fourth might be Steven Jackson.

Many Yankee fans have stated that they believe that Alan Horne is eligible to be selected in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. Although I could stand corrected on this, I think that he is exempt until the December 2009 Rule 5 draft. Horne signed on 8/24/2005 at age 22. However, he did not actually begin play in the minor leagues until 2006. Prior to the 2006 Collective Bargaining Agreement, a player who signed at age 22 was exempt from being selected in the Rule 5 draft until after three seasons of actual play. In the 2006 Collective Bargaining Agreement, the exemption for a player signing at age 22 was extended to the fourth Rule 5 draft following the signing, regardless of the season when play began. The December 2008 Rule 5 draft would be the fourth since Horne's signing. However, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America who covered the point in a column in November 2007, in the 2006 Collective Bargaining Agreement, management got the best of both worlds for players like Horne who signed prior to the 2006 CBA. That is, management gets the fourth year of actual play in 2009 even though the 2008 Rule 5 draft is the fourth exempt draft since Horne was signed. I know that Horne's father has been known to frequent this forum, and I would defer to his knowledge if I have incorrectly stated Horne's 2008 exemption. If Horne is not exempt in 2008, I would protect him over Steven Jackson.

There are only 3 reasons I can think of to add a player, heretofore in the minor leagues, to the 40-man roster. First, you need to add a player to the 40-man roster if the player is going to need to be on the 25-man roster to play in a major league game today. Second, you need to add a player to the 40-man roster if the player is too valuable to run the risk of being lost in the Rule 5 draft. Third, you need to add a player to the 40-man roster if you highly desire to add the player to your organization and the player won't sign unless given a major league contract; for example, Miranda and Brackman.
None of these purposes is served by prematurely adding a player in the offseason to the 40-man roster where the player is already under minor league contract and is still exempt from the Rule 5 draft. Therefore, assuming that I am correct that Horne is exempt from the 2008 Rule 5 draft, I see no purpose to be served by adding, as some have suggested, either Horne or Melancon, the latter not signing until August 2006, to the 40-man roster during the offseason. No one can throw a single pitch for the Yankees, so as to require being on the 25 man active roster, until at least April 2009, no matter what we think of the player as a prospect.

I also disagree with those who state that spots on the 40-man roster can be opened between the December Rule 5 draft and spring training by moving players to the 60-day disabled list. The 60-day disabled list doesn't exist until March, and obviously, by definition, a player's rosteritis has to be severe enough that the Yankees feel they can do without the player for at least 60days after game activity starts. No doubt, if the Yankees are to make room for some of their offseason acquisitions they will have to jettison some players who are presently on the 40-man roster, but those deletions will be accomplished by trades, contract sales to other major league rosters or to Japan, non-tenders, waivers, or releases, not by movement to a non-existent offseason 60-day disabled list. The only way the Yankees can take a player off of the 40-man roster during the offseason and still keep the player under constant control is by having the player clear waivers and then assigning the player to the minor leagues. Even then, some assignments can be refused by the player.

[budstinks]

nice analysis.

[indianyanksfan]

guys to keep
whelan, clagget, garcia, wdr, ortiz, dunn, angel reyes, pendleton, cox, kroenke, ed nunez, anson, gil.

[Matsui55]

I don't think Giese will be DFA. In fact I think he gets a spot in the bullpen on opening day as the long man. We just traded Betemit too, why would we DFA Ransom?

I disagree that Giese is the likely "long man."

In fact, I suspect that the job is Aceves to lose.

Giese is what he is- a journeyman. I remember that one-year wonder, Aaron Small, and that many here thought he had achieved some kind of breakthrough in his career and were happy he got that million dollar deal. His track record was the better indicator of his true talent level however. Giese is no different.

[TheHugeUnit2]

In fact, I suspect that the job is Aceves to lose.

I wouldn't doubt Aceves is the 4th starter(joba being the 5th), come opening day while Hughes starts in triple-A, moose retires and pettitte keeps looking like a fool asking for $16 million.

[Matsui55]

If I had to guess who gets protected as of today (and I'm making the dangerous assumption that CC signs before December with the Yanks), this would be my guess:

(I cut and pasted some of this from Bud's list)

Pitchers:

Sabathia
Wang
Chamberlain
Hughes
Aceves
Kennedy
H. Sanchez
Horne
Garcia
Brackman
Dunn
Hacker
De La Rosa
M. Rivera
J.B. Cox
Robertson
Veras
E. Ramirez
Marte
Coke
Claggett
Whelan
Bruney

C:
Posada
Molina
Cervelli

INF:

Swisher
Cano
Jeter
ARod
Pena
Miranda

OF:
Damon
Melky
Gardner
Nady
Matsui
Christian

By my count, that's 38, including CC. I am including Horne, despite the good analysis by andykosco, just because I think the Yanks may elect to be safe rather than sorry.

I think Giese and Ransom get their walking papers when the Yanks add their minor leaguers. Christian gets retained, but only for now- when the Yanks need a roster space for a FA in December/January, he goes first.

If we were going to list "guys on the bubble," Christian is first, followed closely by Bruney, then Claggett and Whelan.

I don't think that any other player is worth using a roster spot for, especially when the Yanks are likely to need several roster spots quickly for FA in the next 2 months. This would require the Yanks waiving a guy they added in December (making it more likely they get claimed by another club in January/ February) when they sign the FAs.

I also think that the only players left unprotected that would even interest another club are Jackson and Anson. Jackson only because he could be used by some club in the back of their pen (though I see him getting sent back to NY like Bean and Gardner). Anson might appeal to a club needing a good defensive backup C, but I really don't think his bat is even AAA ready right now, let alone ML ready. Thus, I really don't expect any players to get taken in Rule 5 from the Yanks.

I also think the Yanks may try and take one Rule 5 player, but to use in a trade. The Yanks need some ammo to fill their bench- and a Rule 5 guy would likely appeal to some club in exchange for a bench player- it amounts to the same thing for some ball clubs- and is a bargain to others, as Rule 5 guys are minimum wage, while utility guys can run $1M in some cases.

Just my guesses, based on what we know today.

[Matsui55]

I wouldn't doubt Aceves is the 4th starter(joba being the 5th), come opening day while Hughes starts in triple-A, moose retires and pettitte keeps looking like a fool asking for $16 million.

No, I think things are pretty much set now.

If CC signs, he's the #1
Wang #2
Burnett or Lowe as #3 (depending who signs, and they could sign both)
Pettitte will likely be back after some haggling (Yanks will likely offer arbitration and tell him they will ask for a big pay cut in arbitration).
Then Joba.

Unless someone is hurt, or Joba can't cut it, I suspect Kennedy and Hughes will be in AAA (unless traded) working on IP counts and change-ups and command. They are SP all the way.

Aceves is different. He pitches to contact and tries to use a minimum of pitches. That is actually a good long reliever's mentality. When you are trying to save the pen when someone makes a bad start, the long man has to go as long as possible, which requires being efficient with your pitches so you can go the 4-6 IP sometimes needed. Aceves stuff also might not project out long-term as a starter.

[Michaels07]

Yankee Bullpen is the strength of the 40 man roster.The outfield has to be tweaked, perhaps a three for one trade with the hapless Pirated for their star CF.

[wang+cano=future]

The deadline for setting the major and minor league reserve lists is 11/20/2008. The major league reserve list is the 40-man roster. Players on the 40-man roster are not subject to selection in the Rule 5 draft. A player not on the 40-man roster may still be exempt from the December 2008 Rule 5 draft if the player signed his first minor league contract before attaining age 19 and actually started playing in the minor leagues in 2005 or later, or if the player signed his first minor league contract after attaining age 19 and actually started playing in the minor leagues in 2006 or later.

So we should know by the end of the day today who the Yanks will protect right?

[TheHugeUnit2]

So we should know by the end of the day today who the Yanks will protect right?

Correct.

[wang+cano=future]

Correct.

Okay cool thanks. Should be interesting to see what they do.

[hallofamer2000]

We should probably find out any minute now. The deadline is in less than half an hour.

[Reggievision]

Pete Abe has the final announcement on his blog.

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/

Excerpt:

"Added to the roster: RHPs Anthony Claggett, Christian Garcia and Steven Jackson and LHP Michael Dunn.

Designated for assignment: Darrell Rasner (who was sold to a team in Japan).

The roster is now at 40.

Based entirely on the fine work of Chad Jennings, here are some of the notable players who are now eligible to be selected in the Rule 5:

Pitchers: J.B. Cox, Alan Horne, Jason Jones, Zach Kroenke, Kevin Whelan

Infielders: Reegie Corona, Ramiro Pena, Eric Duncan"

[TheHugeUnit2]

I'm glad Garcia was added. Claggert seems like he could help too. Got to be honest, don't know a hole lot about Jackson.

[metalboy15]

I'm glad Garcia was added. Claggert seems like he could help too. Got to be honest, don't know a hole lot about Jackson.

Got a chance to see him in the IL playoffs and ST.

Sinking fastball in the low 90s, recently added splitter (has the look of a legitimate ML out pitch, needs to learn how to throw it for strikes) and a average slider.

Could be a 7th inning guy if all comes together.

[Reggievision]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a team take a crack at Cox or Whelan.

[CallOfTheCrow]

I'm kind of surprised that Jackson is protected over Whelan, Horne, or Cox.

[metalboy15]

I'm kind of surprised that Jackson is protected over Whelan, Horne, or Cox.

Jackson really took off after adding a splitter to his repertoire.

Could be a strikeout pitch in the majors.

[wang+cano=future]

I am surprised Cox wasn't protected. I guess the organization has soured on him. I bet him and Whelan get selected.

[Yankees1962]

I am surprised Cox wasn't protected. I guess the organization has soured on him. I bet him and Whelan get selected.

Just remembered they have to stay on the 25 man roster for the entire season.

[wang+cano=future]

I could see Cox sticking with a team.

[Yankee Tripper]

With Rule 5 how many can a team lose to rule 5?

I could easily see someone taking a shot at one or more of the pitchers.

[flymick24]

the only reason why jackson was added was that the yankees wanted to salvage something from the RJ trade

terrible decision to keep him over someone like whelan

[flymick24]

I could see Cox sticking with a team.

it truly is a shame then that we wouldn't have a cox and a wang on the same team

[THEBOSS84]

the only reason why jackson was added was that the yankees wanted to salvage something from the RJ trade

terrible decision to keep him over someone like whelan

Jeremy Bleich is a gift from the RJ trade btw. As is a portion of the bodies of Nady and Marte.

[Buzah!]

Jackson added velocity and his splitter sharpened up in the pen.

[wang+cano=future]

it truly is a shame then that we wouldn't have a cox and a wang on the same team

It really is.....

[BringBackRandolph]

Just remembered they have to stay on the 25 man roster for the entire season.

I think they also have to be active for the first 90 days. This applies to Horne who might still be injured

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

I think they also have to be active for the first 90 days. This applies to Horne who might still be injured

Ah, didn't realize that. That might explain him.

[Matsui55]

the only reason why jackson was added was that the yankees wanted to salvage something from the RJ trade

terrible decision to keep him over someone like whelan

One has to wonder whether some of this is strategic.

Think of it this way- the Yanks kept some guys who CLEARLY will be let go quickly once FA start signing- Giese, Duncan, Ransom... They will likely be first in line to go. Depending on how many and who sign, Britton, Bruney and Christian could be goners too.

BUT- let's assume some team(s) takes Whelan and/or Horne (I did not name Cox or Pena, because I believe either one would stick with a club- Cox because he can pitch now in the bigs, and Pena would be a valuable backup middle INF for some cheap club- Reds?)

Stop and think about this for a moment- if the Yanks had added Whelan or Horne, they would have had to drop someone listed above. That would also mean that when the Yanks began signing FA (I expect them to sign 3-4, maybe more), they would have to begin making hard choices they might not want to in December/January.

However, since Rule 5 guys tend to stick right up to final cuts in March, it is like getting a free roster holder. I would assume Horne might not be healthy enough to stick, and I don't think Whelan is ready to stay in the bigs (and is a little old to stash away and lose a year). Thus, you would likely get them back in March, when you are dumping the excess from the roster anyway- that would be the point where the non--performers get dropped from the roster.

Its an odd way to look at it, but the Yanks are making an interesting gamble.

[TheHugeUnit2]

Bruney? He had a good year, I'd think Ramirez would go before him and 5 guys before him.

Britton will never be used, so just get him out of here.

[budstinks]

Wasn't there a rule about guys who were hurt for a year getting an extra year?

I also thought someone said Horne wasn't eligible this year?

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

Bruney? He had a good year, I'd think Ramirez would go before him and 5 guys before him.

Britton will never be used, so just get him out of here.

Are you saying you'd leave Bruney unprotected?

[TheHugeUnit2]

Are you saying you'd leave Bruney unprotected?

Nope.

[Reggievision]

the only reason why jackson was added was that the yankees wanted to salvage something from the RJ trade

terrible decision to keep him over someone like whelan

FWIW, PP has Jackson listed as the Yankees #32 minor league prospect in their recently-updated list from last week. Whelan slid in at #33, so they viewed the two as essentially a wash. Cox didn't crack the top-50 on that list, although he's now listed at #49.

[mbn007]

the only reason why jackson was added was that the yankees wanted to salvage something from the RJ trade

terrible decision to keep him over someone like whelan

Whelan still can't throw strikes consistently. My guess is that it came down to Whelan or Claggart, and they picked against Whelan.

[Enoch]

I'm surprised with Cox to be honest. Aside from the lost year, he has pretty much done everything thing the Yankees have hoped....Someone will pick him up, and I think he will stick all year long and make an impact.

[VTYankeesFan2]

I am most surprised about Horne. We have tons of bullpen arms up and down the system, not to mention some young guys that are already in NY. We need to keep the starting prospects though, especially the ones that have already made it to AAA. Unless teams are scared by his recent shoulder surgery, I think it is likely he will be selected in the draft. He may be returned, but it is a big risk in my opinion.