Pitching: Boston vs New York

[Lucen]

With the season officially started (technically), I figured we could finally sit down and look at our two teams and how they stack up on the mound. I have no qualms with conceding the offensive arms race here and now, and I think it's clear we have the better defensive team, so that leaves pitching as the biggest area of contention. (If you guys want to argue about the defense, feel free to start a thread about it and I'll meet you there.)

So, we'll look at the current staffs, bullpens and depth of each, posting their 2007 numbers and see how we stack up.

Boston      ERA   FIP   K/BB   VORP     New York       ERA   FIP   K/BB   VORP
Beckett     3.27  3.04  4.85   58.6     Wang           3.70  3.75  1.76   48.5
Matsuzaka   4.40  4.19  2.51   37.0     Pettitte       4.05  3.83  2.04   36.8
Wakefield   4.76  4.63  1.72   23.2     Kennedy        4.24  4.24  1.77   22.0*
Lester      4.57  5.20  1.61    9.7**   Hughes         4.46  4.31  2.00   16.1**
Buchholz    4.24  4.24  2.10   22.3*    Mussina        5.15  3.97  2.60   11.0
*Used BP projection across the line. (used projected ERA for FIP as well)
** Used BP projection for VORP only.

So, let's break this down.

Beckett vs. Wang - I don't think there's any question that the Sox have the advantage here. It's not an enormous advantage, but it's a sizable one. I don't think there will be too much argument on this. Both are very good pitchers, but I doubt many here would project Wang to have the better year.

Matsuzaka vs. Pettitte - Again, this one is pretty obvious. Pettitte gets the edge. I think Matsuzaka will improve over his 2007 a little bit, but not enough to close the gap if Pettitte stands pat. Health concerns over Pettitte are the only reason I hesitate in making my choice here, but they're not subtantial enough to change my stance.

Wakefield vs. Kennedy - This one looks like it could be a close and interesting race. I think I'd go with Kennedy in the end, as Wakefield has had durability issues the last couple of years, but if both remain healthy, I think they could post very similar lines by the end of the season. I don't think the advantage for Kennedy is a terribly big one, but it is there and it could be an important one when comparing the staffs holistically.

Lester vs. Hughes - I'm a Sox fan. I'd love to find a justification for picking Lester here, but let's be realistic. It's Hughes. I think Lester will have a respectable season and will do fine as a 4th starter, but I expect Hughes to be better than that. And not by a small margin. The difference here is about as big as the difference I see between Beckett and Wang. So that advantage is evened out here, I think.

Buchholz vs. Mussina - I don't think Moose is cooked. I think he'll bounce back and improve over his 2007 a bit. Not enough to close in on Buchholz, but enough that this isn't a laughable comparison. I think BP's projected line for Buchholz is pretty fair, and I think Moose will see a drop in ERA to about 4.75. In fact, I expect Moose to end up about where Wakefield ended up last season. So, considering that, this difference evens out the advantage Pettitte has over Matsuzaka, in my mind.

Now, looking at depth, I'm not going to post season lines as both teams have a lot of unknowns and questions in their starter depth. So I'll go right to the comparisons.

Colon vs. Chamberlain - I expect Colon to have a solid year... at least a solid year for a guy coming back from a pretty serious injury to his pitching arm. I think he'll be better than the average back of the rotation starter when he starts, and he'll be average for a long reliever/middle reliever. Joba, on the other hand, will likely be better than that as a reliever, and probably as a starter too. When I compare bullpens, I'll touch on his value there, but as starting pitching depth, he gets the nod over Colon, by a noticable but not huge margin.

Tavarez vs. Rasner/Horne/AAA - I think the Sox have the advantage here, no matter which minor leaguer or journeyman veteran acquisition you plug in. Obviously a major trade changes this, but as the rosters and free agent markets currently stand, the Sox take take this one. It should be about as much of an advantage for the Sox here as Kennedy is over Wakefield, meaning the teams are even except for Colon vs Chamberlain.

Finishing the look at the starters, the Yankees "edge" out the Sox.

Now, looking at the bullpens... there's a ton of variation from year to year with bullpen arms. So this could end up being WAY off, but here are the breakdowns for the closers, set up men, and top three middle relievers for each team. (Beyond that, most bullpens have fungible parts.)

Boston      ERA   FIP   K/BB   VORP     New York       ERA   FIP   K/BB   VORP
Papelbon    1.85  2.41  5.60   27.1     Rivera         3.15  2.61  6.17   22.4
Okajima     2.22  3.29  3.71   29.3     Chamberlain    0.38  1.78  5.67   33.6*
Timlin      3.42  4.65  2.21   14.0     Hawkins        3.42  4.43  1.81   15.9
Delcarmen   2.05  3.81  2.41   18.4     Farnsworth     4.80  5.00  1.78    4.8
Lopez       3.10  4.18  1.44   11.3     Bruney         4.68  5.34  1.05    6.2
*BP projected VORP

Papelbon vs. Rivera - At this point in their careers, Papelbon is the better pitcher. There just isn't a statistical justification for stating otherwise. The advantage here is significant, but not major. Both teams will have success in close and late games because of these guys. But Boston does get the edge.

Okajima vs. Chamberlain - I'll just get this out of the way. Advantage Yankees. Evens out the advantage the Sox have at closer. Okajima won't be quite as good as he was last year, but he should still be a very solid set up man, and Chamberlain might not spend the entire season in the pen in this role. So it's tough to get an exact fix on this situation, but yeah... Yankees get the nod here.

Timlin vs. Hawkins - I'm calling this a wash. These guys had very similar 2007 seasons and both project to be similar again this year. This does have the potential to become an advantage for the Yankees, however, if Timlin's age catches up to him and he hits a wall.

Delcarmen vs. Farnsworth - Gotta go Sox here. Farnsworth showed some improvement once the pressure was lessened last year, but he has a lot to prove before I take him over MDC.

Lopez vs. Bruney - Sox again. Bruney just isn't that good and while Lopez is a situational pitcher, I don't think it's tough to imagine him having a bigger positive impact on the Sox than Bruney has on the Yankees. This is the part of the pen where parts become interchangable and there really isn't a huge impact... so this advantage for the Sox doesn't mean much in the total comparison.


So that gives us a bullpen advantage for the Sox. Is it enough to match the rotation advantage the Yanks have? I think it's pretty close to being enough.

That means that after all this, I'm calling this a pretty even match up. These teams should both have very good pitching staffs in 2008 and that means it should be a very fun race for the division, since both teams are going to be solid offensive clubs (advantage Yankees there, yeah, I know) and the Sox are looking to be a pretty good defensive team again as well.

I'll be interested to see what other people here think, and what areas of my breakdown people take issue with.

Edit: The wildcard here is Joba. He could tip the scales on either side of this equation. If he ends up in the rotation, he pulls the Yankees ahead a few more paces. If he stays in the bullpen, I think he closes the gap there a bit. When he goes to the rotation will also play a part in how much he impacts that comparison as well, so it's tough to say just what kind of impact he'll have. But he's going to replace Mussina if he does move, and that means that number 5 spot becomes a pretty even match up with Clay.

[ieddyi]

Hey, if Bill James says he can't project young pitching, I don't think I'll try

[Game4Tino]

I'd say the Yankees have the advantage with Wang over Beckett until Josh can get back, no?

Also, I'm going to have to disagree with your opinion that the Sox pen gives them any advantage over the Yankees. First off, Bruney is not going to be out there, so you're wasting time analyzing his potential output. To say guys like Lopez and MDC make up any advantage is a real reach. Farnsworth and the Yankee farm are the real wilds card here. If Farnsworth puts it together (obviously, no reason to think he should at this point, just a hunch) you are talking about a guy with a rocket arm and some pretty decent offspeed stuff. The change in managers is going to be nothing but good for Kyle. Yet another wild card playing in the Yanks' favor is all of the young pitching they have on the farm. Don't count your Tavarez chicken before it hatches with guys like Horne, Ohlendorf, Sanchez and Ramirez available. Oh and Wakefield over IPK is a reach. Sorry but, I think the Yanks have the advantage in the pen.

[Carbon Fiber]

I'd say the Yankees have the advantage with Wang over Beckett until Josh can get back, no?

One could have a similar argument about Pettitte --- but I think the OP is assuming that both overcome their early season- seemingly minor - health concerns.

[Game4Tino]

One could have a similar argument about Pettitte --- but I think the OP is assuming that both overcome their early season- seemingly minor - health concerns.

Sure, but Beckett was placed on the DL and we haven't heard anything. I'm sure he went there so that the team could have roster flexibility for the Japan trip, but I haven't heard anything regarding progress being made. Pettitte, on the other hand, had his back lock up and has already stated there is no big issue and he'll be on the mound.

[Carbon Fiber]

Sure, but Beckett was placed on the DL and we haven't heard anything. I'm sure he went there so that the team could have roster flexibility for the Japan trip, but I haven't heard anything regarding progress being made. Pettitte, on the other hand, had his back lock up and has already stated there is no big issue and he'll be on the mound.

You probably hear more about Pettitte because (I'd guess) that you follow the Yankees a lot closer than the RS... Beckett should be back by April 8th (from Rotoworld: Beckett will be eligible to return on April 4, though it seems doubtful that he'll pitch then. April 8 would be a more realistic date. He's going to pitch in a minor league game on Thursday.)

If you're arguing that Pettitte is a few days ahead of Beckett at coming back, I'd agree with you --- most reports have Pettitte back on the 4th (ish) and Beckett back on the 8th.

[Reggie Smith]

Sure, but Beckett was placed on the DL and we haven't heard anything. I'm sure he went there so that the team could have roster flexibility for the Japan trip, but I haven't heard anything regarding progress being made. Pettitte, on the other hand, had his back lock up and has already stated there is no big issue and he'll be on the mound.

He is due to come off the DL on the 4th, and may be pitching in Toronto. If it weren't for Japan, he would've missed close to the same amount of time as Pettitte is forecasted to. In fact, if it weren't for Japan, he wouldn't even have gone on the DL. It's only because the season started much earlier that they put him on the DL. Sending him to Japan, on that flight, when he wasn't going to pitch, when they could use the roster spot for someone else, didn't make much sense. Their "injuries" were both the same and are minor.

As for "we haven't heard anything": look around.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3310738
http://www.boston.com/sports/basebal...r_league_game/

[Reggie Smith]

Sure, but Beckett was placed on the DL and we haven't heard anything. I'm sure he went there so that the team could have roster flexibility for the Japan trip, but I haven't heard anything regarding progress being made. Pettitte, on the other hand, had his back lock up and has already stated there is no big issue and he'll be on the mound.

So, to wrap this up, Josh went on the DL, retroactive to March 19. Pettitte just went on the DL, retroactive to March 21.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring...ory?id=3320956

[Lucen]

I'd say the Yankees have the advantage with Wang over Beckett until Josh can get back, no?

Also, I'm going to have to disagree with your opinion that the Sox pen gives them any advantage over the Yankees. First off, Bruney is not going to be out there, so you're wasting time analyzing his potential output. To say guys like Lopez and MDC make up any advantage is a real reach. Farnsworth and the Yankee farm are the real wilds card here. If Farnsworth puts it together (obviously, no reason to think he should at this point, just a hunch) you are talking about a guy with a rocket arm and some pretty decent offspeed stuff. The change in managers is going to be nothing but good for Kyle. Yet another wild card playing in the Yanks' favor is all of the young pitching they have on the farm. Don't count your Tavarez chicken before it hatches with guys like Horne, Ohlendorf, Sanchez and Ramirez available. Oh and Wakefield over IPK is a reach. Sorry but, I think the Yanks have the advantage in the pen.

I'm not entirely sure you actually read my entire post. And, to be honest, if you didn't I'm not surprised. It was long and very detail heavy. But I'll try to address each of your concerns.

The Beckett thing has been covered, we'll skip that. As for Bruney not being out there or Lopez being much of an advantage even if he is, I was careful to point out that that match up didn't have much impact on the overall breakdown anyway. When you get to that point, you're just splitting hairs anyway. Neither team has any really great relievers at that point, and both have a bunch of minor league arms they can throw in there at some point that might work out or might now. So arguing over that particular point is kind of... well... pointless.

As for Wakefield over IPK, that's not at all what I said. I said Kennedy would be my pick in the end, but that I think they'll put up similar seasons. Not sure where you got me picking Wakefield from.

I think your view of MDC is a bit too biased. He posted a very good season last year. Take a look at the numbers I included in my first post. He was a very good reliever in 2007, and I don't see any reason to think it was a fluke. Matching him up against Farnsworth is interesting, because Farns did show a little bit of a spark down the stretch. Maybe it was a small sample size issue, maybe the change in roles allowed him to harness his stuff. At this point, I wouldn't be comfortable predicting him to be better than MDC in 2008, though. He'll need to pitch well for a while before I'll consider that more than a remote possibility.

And finally, the Tavarez pick. Sanchez and Ohlendorf are both coming off arm injuries. To expect them to be able to post a 5ish ERA in the majors this year is probably wishful thinking. Both might pan out in the long run, but we're talking 2008 here. Horne, on the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up better than Tavarez, but again... he hasn't pitched in the majors yet. Until he does, there's a pretty big question about whether his game will translate or not. We may find out this year, but I don't think it's unfair to consider Tavarez the safer option right now.

And Ramirez is one of those guys who could end up a solid bullpen addition, or could never be heard from again. Last year when he first came up, he was the second coming because he was hot out of the gate. But then he struggled, like most young pitchers do. We certainly don't know enough about him to say he's a better bet than Tavarez.

Much like the Sox, the Yanks have a bunch of pieces they can throw at the wall. Some might stick, some might not. We'll see what happens. But I don't think there are enough questions answered for the Yanks to give them the edge (or pull up even) in the bullpen.

[Saxmania]

I think your view of MDC is a bit too biased. He posted a very good season last year. Take a look at the numbers I included in my first post. He was a very good reliever in 2007, and I don't see any reason to think it was a fluke.

Not even his FIP? Year-to-year ERA for relievers is going to be more volatile anyway because of small sample size (plus almost all relievers seem to outperform their FIP in your list), but I would suggest that your above data at least offers some reason to suggest that Delcarmen won't generate as strong results this year as last.

I don't know his repetoire well enough to say if FIP might be less applicable to him, but 2.05 ERA to 3.81 FIP is a big gap. Want to hedge?

Be seeing you,

Saxmania

[Lucen]

Not even his FIP? Year-to-year ERA for relievers is going to be more volatile anyway because of small sample size (plus almost all relievers seem to outperform their FIP in your list), but I would suggest that your above data at least offers some reason to suggest that Delcarmen won't generate as strong results this year as last.

I don't know his repetoire well enough to say if FIP might be less applicable to him, but 2.05 ERA to 3.81 FIP is a big gap. Want to hedge?

Be seeing you,

Saxmania

You're quite right that ERA's fluctuate greatly from year to year and are a poor indicator of performance. But I wasn't relying soley on ERA when I made the statement that he was quite a good reliever in 2007.

Now, I wasn't trying to suggest that he was one of the best in baseball, and I'm sorry if it read that way. But as a 4th option out of the pen for the Sox, well... the Sox could do much much worse. And I think he was good enough in 2007 that it's a relatively safe bet he outperforms Farnsworth this year.

When you look at the rest of the numbers I posted for him, he had the third highest K/BB of any Sox reliever last year (better than Mike Timlin) and the third highest VORP (again, better than Timlin). You could actually make the argument that he was better than Timlin last year, and I don't think many would argue that Farnsworth was better than him either. Especially when you look at Farnsworth's numbers. His fip was 5.00, his VORP was 4.8. He simply wasn't good last year. And he really hasn't been very good at all since signing with the Yankees. He's had his moments, but consistency matters.

So I'm not trying to argue that Delcarmen is a future closer or even a future set up man. Just that he was a pretty darned good reliever in 2007 and that I'm confident he'll be better than Farnsworth in 2008.

Edit: You asked about his arsenal... He throws a very straight mid nineties 4 seamer that he spots pretty well. He throws a big breaking curve ball (12-6 mostly) that can buckle knees when he's keeping it in or close to the strike zone (he's struggled with placing it in the past, but it seemed more consitent last year), and he's since added a 2-seam heater that he throws around 92ish. He seems to locate that pretty well. I believe he has a changeup he's working on as well, but I don't know how good that is at this point.

[Workhorse]

I think the Red Sox x-factor in the pen will be David Aardsma. If he can harness his talent effectively, he's another strong weapon towards the end of games. His stuff in Japan was eye popping.

[Game4Tino]

I'm not entirely sure you actually read my entire post. And, to be honest, if you didn't I'm not surprised. It was long and very detail heavy. But I'll try to address each of your concerns.

The Beckett thing has been covered, we'll skip that. As for Bruney not being out there or Lopez being much of an advantage even if he is, I was careful to point out that that match up didn't have much impact on the overall breakdown anyway. When you get to that point, you're just splitting hairs anyway. Neither team has any really great relievers at that point, and both have a bunch of minor league arms they can throw in there at some point that might work out or might now. So arguing over that particular point is kind of... well... pointless.

As for Wakefield over IPK, that's not at all what I said. I said Kennedy would be my pick in the end, but that I think they'll put up similar seasons. Not sure where you got me picking Wakefield from.

I think your view of MDC is a bit too biased. He posted a very good season last year. Take a look at the numbers I included in my first post. He was a very good reliever in 2007, and I don't see any reason to think it was a fluke. Matching him up against Farnsworth is interesting, because Farns did show a little bit of a spark down the stretch. Maybe it was a small sample size issue, maybe the change in roles allowed him to harness his stuff. At this point, I wouldn't be comfortable predicting him to be better than MDC in 2008, though. He'll need to pitch well for a while before I'll consider that more than a remote possibility.

And finally, the Tavarez pick. Sanchez and Ohlendorf are both coming off arm injuries. To expect them to be able to post a 5ish ERA in the majors this year is probably wishful thinking. Both might pan out in the long run, but we're talking 2008 here. Horne, on the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up better than Tavarez, but again... he hasn't pitched in the majors yet. Until he does, there's a pretty big question about whether his game will translate or not. We may find out this year, but I don't think it's unfair to consider Tavarez the safer option right now.

And Ramirez is one of those guys who could end up a solid bullpen addition, or could never be heard from again. Last year when he first came up, he was the second coming because he was hot out of the gate. But then he struggled, like most young pitchers do. We certainly don't know enough about him to say he's a better bet than Tavarez.

Much like the Sox, the Yanks have a bunch of pieces they can throw at the wall. Some might stick, some might not. We'll see what happens. But I don't think there are enough questions answered for the Yanks to give them the edge (or pull up even) in the bullpen.

Thanks for intimating that I am not capable of reading a "long, detail-heavy" post. You should try taking it with a grain of salt when someone disagrees with your OPINION. You act as if I am disputing some irrefutable evidence you have presented that states Boston has a better pitching staff. You can give me your opinion all day, presented any way you like, but it will still be my OPINION that the Yankees have a better staff than Boston.

[Lucen]

Thanks for intimating that I am not capable of reading a "long, detail-heavy" post. You should try taking it with a grain of salt when someone disagrees with your OPINION. You act as if I am disputing some irrefutable evidence you have presented that states Boston has a better pitching staff. You can give me your opinion all day, presented any way you like, but it will still be my OPINION that the Yankees have a better staff than Boston.

I didn't intimate you weren't capable of it, just that you may have looked at the length and thought it wasn't worth the effort. There wasn't any snarkiness meant in my response to you, which is why I tried to address each of your points rather than just dismiss your post entirely.

The reason I don't think you read it all, at least not carefully is that you flat out got several of your takes on my post wrong. Like saying I chose Wakefield over Kennedy. I did just the opposite, but you argued with me as if I'd done something I hadn't. Several of your points suggest you may have skimmed the post, but not really dug into it, as they weren't really applicable to my first post.

If you don't want to debate the matter and simply wanted to step in here, tell me you disagree and nothing I can say will change that, fine. Be my guest. We're all entitled to our opinions. But if you're going to raise arguments against my post, at least make sure they apply.

[Carbon Fiber]

Hey, if Bill James says he can't project young pitching, I don't think I'll try

Then why post in this thread? Do you have an opinion about the veteran pitcher comparisons or were you just trying to tweak the OP?

[PocketAces12]

Very well thought out. Good post.

I think that guys like Bruney and Farnsworth are going to surprise people this year. Especially Farnsworth since it's a contract year. Bruney seems like he has his head on straight so I hope he has a bounce back season. I think the Yankees rotation is drastically better than Bostons. I'm not a Jon Lester or Clay buckholz believer and I think they will struggle mightily this year.

[Carbon Fiber]

Lucen, I agree with most of your comparisons except I think I'd give the Yankees the edge with Hawkins over Timlin... I think Timlin is going to continue to seriously decline.

[THEBOSS84]

I'm surprised you called Pettitte over Dice-k obvious...Even after seeing yesterday's game, I'd take Dice-k.

[Lucen]

I'm surprised you called Pettitte over Dice-k obvious...Even after seeing yesterday's game, I'd take Dice-k.

Pettitte clearly had a better year than Daisuke last year, and Mastuzaka hasn't given us any reason to think he's improved that much over the spring. Frankly, I don't see how anyone could be confident that Matsuzaka will be better than Pettitte this year.

Is it possible? Yeah, sure. I wouldn't be comfortable betting on it, though.

[ngruz25]

Beckett should be available shortly they get back to the states. He was placed on the DL retroactively. He's already thrown a couple innings in a minor league game.

[YASS]

Last year's thread

Fun reading.

[jeterismyhomeboy]

I think that a position by position comparison (which is what this essentially is) can't really encapture everything. For example, if the Yanks stagger the expected length of their starters by going Wang, Moose, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, this doesn't become a comparison of individual starters or relievers anymore.

Then you have to ask about 7th, 8th, 9th starters, because even though no one really thinks about it, most seasons, these are people that will be on the mound for the big team at some point. I mean, how many people expected Kason Gabbard to be throwing any of the Sox's innings in 2007? Colon is 6th starter, Tavarez is 7th...8th and 9th are? The Yankees will just keep plugging arm after arm (Rasner, Igawa, Karstens, Horne, White, Marquez seems to be the consensus for spots 7-12) in there, because they have a ton of pitching depth in the farm. It seems absurd, but after the woes the Yanks had at the beginning of last year, I won't take anything for granted.

Then you have to ask about bullpen depth. If one of these guys is ineffective how does it re-shape the pen? Last year, no one thought the Sox had a half-decent pen after Papelbon; the volatility of pen arms changed that. The question is whether the arms in question will continue their excellence or whether they'll face a downturn. If they continue their excellence, it will be a top pen again, and easily vault them ahead of the Yankees. If they fail, however, I see no ready-made remedy, and it could unravel the staff.

The pitching isn't just the match-ups, but the versatility of each team. I don't see that taken into account enough. The Yankees most certainly will need help to make up the difference between innings limits and the total amount of innings needed. That makes them weaker if they don't have others to soak up the innings; it makes them stronger if the replacements are above-average. The Sox will need to put someone in the 5th starter spot while Buchholz kicks the crap out of--I mean, refines his pitches against--minor leaguers, and they'll likely need more innings from their pen when Lester pitches (because he of the 20 pitch inning has not yet shown significantly better control). They'll need replacements that don't put more stress on the pen.

So while I may agree or disagree on the essential views, I believe that this is a highly insufficient view of pitching staffs, not even taking into consideration the laundry.

[Lucen]

I think that a position by position comparison (which is what this essentially is) can't really encapture everything. For example, if the Yanks stagger the expected length of their starters by going Wang, Moose, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, this doesn't become a comparison of individual starters or relievers anymore.

This is fair, but I wasn't comparing them in the order I think they'll be thrown. I was looking at them as I expect them to contribute, from best to worst/least good. I'm a big Clay Buchholz fan, but I think he's gonna struggle at times this year will be the 5th best starter on the club behind the other four. So I placed him there.

Then you have to ask about 7th, 8th, 9th starters, because even though no one really thinks about it, most seasons, these are people that will be on the mound for the big team at some point. I mean, how many people expected Kason Gabbard to be throwing any of the Sox's innings in 2007? Colon is 6th starter, Tavarez is 7th...8th and 9th are? The Yankees will just keep plugging arm after arm (Rasner, Igawa, Karstens, Horne, White, Marquez seems to be the consensus for spots 7-12) in there, because they have a ton of pitching depth in the farm. It seems absurd, but after the woes the Yanks had at the beginning of last year, I won't take anything for granted.

Just because you know the Yankees system better, that doesn't mean the Sox names aren't comparable to your depth. You throw Rasner, Igawa, Karstens, Horne, White and Marquez out there, I counter with Masterson, Pauley, Bowden, Alvarez, Johnson and Haigwood.

Masterson is rated higher than any of the Yankees names you mentioned and Bowden is ranked higher than most of them I think. We've got some starting pitching depth as well.

Then you have to ask about bullpen depth. If one of these guys is ineffective how does it re-shape the pen? Last year, no one thought the Sox had a half-decent pen after Papelbon; the volatility of pen arms changed that. The question is whether the arms in question will continue their excellence or whether they'll face a downturn. If they continue their excellence, it will be a top pen again, and easily vault them ahead of the Yankees. If they fail, however, I see no ready-made remedy, and it could unravel the staff.

I don't think the Sox pen will be quite as good as last year, but I don't think there's any reason to believe they're going to decline dramatically either. Of course, I did point out that the variance in performance from year to year with bullpens means my break down could end up way off come September.

Theo seems to have done what he did last year. Throw a bunch of crap against the wall, see what sticks. The Sox are pretty well off with their first four relievers. It's not that unlikely that one of the random pieces put out there will work out.

But in the end, bullpens are the toughest part of a team to predict. So all we can really do is shrug our shoulders and wait. I think it'll break down how I outlined it. But that's just my opinion. Things could certainly break down differently.

The pitching isn't just the match-ups, but the versatility of each team. I don't see that taken into account enough. The Yankees most certainly will need help to make up the difference between innings limits and the total amount of innings needed. That makes them weaker if they don't have others to soak up the innings; it makes them stronger if the replacements are above-average. The Sox will need to put someone in the 5th starter spot while Buchholz kicks the crap out of--I mean, refines his pitches against--minor leaguers, and they'll likely need more innings from their pen when Lester pitches (because he of the 20 pitch inning has not yet shown significantly better control). They'll need replacements that don't put more stress on the pen.

So while I may agree or disagree on the essential views, I believe that this is a highly insufficient view of pitching staffs, not even taking into consideration the laundry.

Well, it's not meant to encompass each teams entire organizational depth, but of course, it's really impossible to compare once you get to a certain point. There's just too much uncertainty. That's why I stopped after closers, set up man and three middle relief guys. What's the point in trying to predict the unpredictable?

At least with the top of the pens and the rotations, there's SOME consistency from year to year.

[Soriambi]

I think that a position by position comparison (which is what this essentially is) can't really encapture everything.

I agree completely. The reason that I hate position by position comparisons is this hypothetical example. Pretend there are two lineups, Team A's lineup and Team B's lineup. All players are in their primes.

Team A:

Jason LaRue, C
Kevin Millar, 1B
Enrique Wilson, 2B
Hanley Ramirez, SS
David Wright, 3B
Hideki Matsui, LF
Mickey Mantle, CF
Benny Agbayani, RF
Will Clark, DH

Team B:

Yogi Berra, C
Lou Gehrig, 1B
Rogers Hornsby, 2B
Troy Tulowitski, SS
Aramis Ramirez, 3B
Raul Ibanez, LF
Joe DiMaggio, CF
Babe Ruth, RF
Paul Konerko, DH

Looking at those two teams, I would say that Team B has advantages at C, 1B, 2B, and RF, but Team A has advantages at SS, 3B, LF, CF, and DH. Based on that, Team A wins this "comparison" 5-4, but I think that anyone looking at the teams as a WHOLE can see that the advantages at C, 1B, 2B, and RF are so huge, and that the disadvantages at the other positions are so small, that team B would clearly beat the heck out of team A offensively. I think that to do a real comparison of any two aspects of teams, you need to look at the whole picture, rather than a player vs. player comparison at each position, because those don't always tell the full story.

[Inswinger]

Roataion
Wang < Beckett
Pettite > Matsuzaka
Hughes = Bucholz
Kenedy = Lester
Mussina = Wakefield

Beckett gives the Sox the edge in the rotation.

Rivera > Pappelbon (exp. counts)
Joba > Okajima (joba has the better stuff)

The rest of the pen is a tossup.

The bullpen goes to the Yanks becaus of Joba and Mo being a bit better than Pappelbon and Okajima.

The Yankees have the better lineup so the offensive edge goes to Yanks.

Both team match up very well,I cant believe some "experts" are picking the Sox to run away with the division!!

[Lucen]

Both team match up very well,I cant believe some "experts" are picking the Sox to run away with the division!!

I agree with this statement 100%. It's gonna be a dog fight for the division unless one of the teams gets ravaged with injuries.

I do, however, disagree with your assessment of Mo vs Papelbon. Papelbon has been arguably the best closer in baseball for two straight years and now has two years of playoff experience under his belt. One of those years (2007, not 2005) as the closer of a championship club.

Mo's edge in experience isn't so great that it can make up for the statistical advantage Papelbon has held over him the last two seasons (2007 more so than 2006).

Papelbon isn't a rookie anymore.

[TheShynessClinic]

Beckett gives the Sox the edge in the rotation.

Rivera > Pappelbon (exp. counts)
Joba > Okajima (joba has the better stuff)

The rest of the pen is a tossup.

The bullpen goes to the Yanks becaus of Joba and Mo being a bit better than Pappelbon and Okajima.

Papelbon.

If experience counts, but having better stuff also counts...

You could say Papelbon has better stuff right now than Rivera.

and Okajima has more experience than Joba...

so basically, you're saying nothing..but with a Yankee bias.

Gotcha.

[Inswinger]

Papelbon.

If experience counts, but having better stuff also counts...

You could say Papelbon has better stuff right now than Rivera.

and Okajima has more experience than Joba...

so basically, you're saying nothing..but with a Yankee bias.

Gotcha.

No need to get personal.
Didnt I say that the Sox have the edge when it comes to pitching and the Yanks have the edge when it comes to hitting? Finding Yankee bias is so easy for some people.

[Jace]

Papelbon.

If experience counts, but having better stuff also counts...

You could say Papelbon has better stuff right now than Rivera.

and Okajima has more experience than Joba...

so basically, you're saying nothing..but with a Yankee bias.

Gotcha.

Awwww... He has an opinion and its not the same as yours so he must be biased

In any case, I don't think Papelbon has more than a slight edge over Rivera. Their FIPs were close to the same last year (2.71 for Rivera, 2.59 for Papelbon), their xFIPs were basically the same (3.06 for Rivera, 3.03 for Papelbon) and Rivera DOES have the unmatchable track record, which matters. Papelbon is much younger, which also matters. As for "stuff", Rivera has the same stuff that made him the best closer of all time

[johnmvp]

Solid first post.

[JavyVazquezIsSick]

:yawn:

[BombersBlvd]

While I have often felt that Wang, in general, is underrated, Beckett is an ace and these two types of pitchers should not even be compared in the same sentence at this point. Yes, Wang has won a lot of games since coming up, and yes, he probably has deserved to win even more if he had a better defensive infield behind him, but Josh Beckett, right now, is in a league of his own. It's not even close in my opinion except that I think they are both potential injury risks (Beckett = finger, etc., Wang = shoulder.)

Pettitte showed unbelieveable guts last year and deserved a better win total, but the offense didn't show up for a lot of his starts earlier on, or the bullpen did him in. He had a surprisingly successful season. He is a year older now on the wrong side of 30 and it also won't help him any to have his off-season issues thrown in his face every single time he steps in a visiting ballpark. I am also very concerned about Pettitte's health over the course of another full season. People are quick to write off Matzusaka, but let's not forget the transition this kid had to make. It wasn't like he's been exposed to 162-plus AL seasons for 5 years now, 2007 was his first season in the States. It's not like a Japanese hitter transitioning, it's probably a lot more difficult. I think Dice-K has more upside in this contest, and he showed flashes of flat-out dominance in many games. He has a better idea of what to expect, as long as he doesn't tire again, I think he will improve on '07 by a lot, especially at his age.

I think Kennedy will perform better than Wakefield, but hard to say by how much. Kennedy lacks experience/innings, and Wakefield is becoming an injury case suddenly. Still, 17 wins is nothing to sneeze at. Hard to tell, so let's call it a wash right now.

Lester vs. Hughes - I will say wash. I think '09 is what will be Phil's year.

Bucholz vs. Mussina - Unless Mussina magically turns into Jamie Moyer, this is going to be an ugly season for Moose. I peg Bucholz for 14 wins, Moose for 7 before he eventually loses his starting role again.

Bullpen. Sox by a ton. Paplebon makes me way less nervous than Mo at this point, and while Joba has been great in the bullpen, Okajima logged way more innings and was still hugely effective. But the real issue is that after Joba, there is no one. I would take Timlin, Delcarmen, Lopez, over anyone in the Yankees pen not named Rivera/Joba.

[aeromac76]

With the season officially started (technically), I figured we could finally sit down and look at our two teams and how they stack up on the mound. I have no qualms with conceding the offensive arms race here and now, and I think it's clear we have the better defensive team, so that leaves pitching as the biggest area of contention. (If you guys want to argue about the defense, feel free to start a thread about it and I'll meet you there.)

So, we'll look at the current staffs, bullpens and depth of each, posting their 2007 numbers and see how we stack up.

Boston      ERA   FIP   K/BB   VORP     New York       ERA   FIP   K/BB   VORP
Beckett     3.27  3.04  4.85   58.6     Wang           3.70  3.75  1.76   48.5
Matsuzaka   4.40  4.19  2.51   37.0     Pettitte       4.05  3.83  2.04   36.8
Wakefield   4.76  4.63  1.72   23.2     Kennedy        4.24  4.24  1.77   22.0*
Lester      4.57  5.20  1.61    9.7**   Hughes         4.46  4.31  2.00   16.1**
Buchholz    4.24  4.24  2.10   22.3*    Mussina        5.15  3.97  2.60   11.0
*Used BP projection across the line. (used projected ERA for FIP as well)
** Used BP projection for VORP only.

So, let's break this down.

Beckett vs. Wang - I don't think there's any question that the Sox have the advantage here. It's not an enormous advantage, but it's a sizable one. I don't think there will be too much argument on this. Both are very good pitchers, but I doubt many here would project Wang to have the better year.

Matsuzaka vs. Pettitte - Again, this one is pretty obvious. Pettitte gets the edge. I think Matsuzaka will improve over his 2007 a little bit, but not enough to close the gap if Pettitte stands pat. Health concerns over Pettitte are the only reason I hesitate in making my choice here, but they're not subtantial enough to change my stance.

Wakefield vs. Kennedy - This one looks like it could be a close and interesting race. I think I'd go with Kennedy in the end, as Wakefield has had durability issues the last couple of years, but if both remain healthy, I think they could post very similar lines by the end of the season. I don't think the advantage for Kennedy is a terribly big one, but it is there and it could be an important one when comparing the staffs holistically.

Lester vs. Hughes - I'm a Sox fan. I'd love to find a justification for picking Lester here, but let's be realistic. It's Hughes. I think Lester will have a respectable season and will do fine as a 4th starter, but I expect Hughes to be better than that. And not by a small margin. The difference here is about as big as the difference I see between Beckett and Wang. So that advantage is evened out here, I think.

Buchholz vs. Mussina - I don't think Moose is cooked. I think he'll bounce back and improve over his 2007 a bit. Not enough to close in on Buchholz, but enough that this isn't a laughable comparison. I think BP's projected line for Buchholz is pretty fair, and I think Moose will see a drop in ERA to about 4.75. In fact, I expect Moose to end up about where Wakefield ended up last season. So, considering that, this difference evens out the advantage Pettitte has over Matsuzaka, in my mind.

Now, looking at depth, I'm not going to post season lines as both teams have a lot of unknowns and questions in their starter depth. So I'll go right to the comparisons.

Colon vs. Chamberlain - I expect Colon to have a solid year... at least a solid year for a guy coming back from a pretty serious injury to his pitching arm. I think he'll be better than the average back of the rotation starter when he starts, and he'll be average for a long reliever/middle reliever. Joba, on the other hand, will likely be better than that as a reliever, and probably as a starter too. When I compare bullpens, I'll touch on his value there, but as starting pitching depth, he gets the nod over Colon, by a noticable but not huge margin.

Tavarez vs. Rasner/Horne/AAA - I think the Sox have the advantage here, no matter which minor leaguer or journeyman veteran acquisition you plug in. Obviously a major trade changes this, but as the rosters and free agent markets currently stand, the Sox take take this one. It should be about as much of an advantage for the Sox here as Kennedy is over Wakefield, meaning the teams are even except for Colon vs Chamberlain.

Finishing the look at the starters, the Yankees "edge" out the Sox.

Now, looking at the bullpens... there's a ton of variation from year to year with bullpen arms. So this could end up being WAY off, but here are the breakdowns for the closers, set up men, and top three middle relievers for each team. (Beyond that, most bullpens have fungible parts.)

Boston      ERA   FIP   K/BB   VORP     New York       ERA   FIP   K/BB   VORP
Papelbon    1.85  2.41  5.60   27.1     Rivera         3.15  2.61  6.17   22.4
Okajima     2.22  3.29  3.71   29.3     Chamberlain    0.38  1.78  5.67   33.6*
Timlin      3.42  4.65  2.21   14.0     Hawkins        3.42  4.43  1.81   15.9
Delcarmen   2.05  3.81  2.41   18.4     Farnsworth     4.80  5.00  1.78    4.8
Lopez       3.10  4.18  1.44   11.3     Bruney         4.68  5.34  1.05    6.2
*BP projected VORP

Papelbon vs. Rivera - At this point in their careers, Papelbon is the better pitcher. There just isn't a statistical justification for stating otherwise. The advantage here is significant, but not major. Both teams will have success in close and late games because of these guys. But Boston does get the edge.

Okajima vs. Chamberlain - I'll just get this out of the way. Advantage Yankees. Evens out the advantage the Sox have at closer. Okajima won't be quite as good as he was last year, but he should still be a very solid set up man, and Chamberlain might not spend the entire season in the pen in this role. So it's tough to get an exact fix on this situation, but yeah... Yankees get the nod here.

Timlin vs. Hawkins - I'm calling this a wash. These guys had very similar 2007 seasons and both project to be similar again this year. This does have the potential to become an advantage for the Yankees, however, if Timlin's age catches up to him and he hits a wall.

Delcarmen vs. Farnsworth - Gotta go Sox here. Farnsworth showed some improvement once the pressure was lessened last year, but he has a lot to prove before I take him over MDC.

Lopez vs. Bruney - Sox again. Bruney just isn't that good and while Lopez is a situational pitcher, I don't think it's tough to imagine him having a bigger positive impact on the Sox than Bruney has on the Yankees. This is the part of the pen where parts become interchangable and there really isn't a huge impact... so this advantage for the Sox doesn't mean much in the total comparison.


So that gives us a bullpen advantage for the Sox. Is it enough to match the rotation advantage the Yanks have? I think it's pretty close to being enough.

That means that after all this, I'm calling this a pretty even match up. These teams should both have very good pitching staffs in 2008 and that means it should be a very fun race for the division, since both teams are going to be solid offensive clubs (advantage Yankees there, yeah, I know) and the Sox are looking to be a pretty good defensive team again as well.

I'll be interested to see what other people here think, and what areas of my breakdown people take issue with.

Edit: The wildcard here is Joba. He could tip the scales on either side of this equation. If he ends up in the rotation, he pulls the Yankees ahead a few more paces. If he stays in the bullpen, I think he closes the gap there a bit. When he goes to the rotation will also play a part in how much he impacts that comparison as well, so it's tough to say just what kind of impact he'll have. But he's going to replace Mussina if he does move, and that means that number 5 spot becomes a pretty even match up with Clay.

Ya know what Lucen, this is the best comparison I have seen written anywhere by anyone, including those who project themselves to be experts. And I also know you are a Sox fan. Most of them I know are so starry eyed after last year they do not even acknowledge the Yankees' pitching as close, and many "expert pundits" follow suit.

I think this was a very well thought out and well argued post. Well done.

[Lucen]

Ya know what Lucen, this is the best comparison I have seen written anywhere by anyone, including those who project themselves to be experts. And I also know you are a Sox fan. Most of them I know are so starry eyed after last year they do not even acknowledge the Yankees' pitching as close, and many "expert pundits" follow suit.

I think this was a very well thought out and well argued post. Well done.

Thanks. I have my share of biased moments, but when I really sat down and looked at the pitching this year, it was hard to justify a "rah rah" Sox favored post, heh.

I'm excited to see how this season unfolds and I really hope both teams stay relatively healthy so they are scratching and clawing their way down the stretch. Nothing like a tight division race between the Sox and Yanks.

[NYDCYankee]

Ya know what Lucen, this is the best comparison I have seen written anywhere by anyone, including those who project themselves to be experts. And I also know you are a Sox fan. Most of them I know are so starry eyed after last year they do not even acknowledge the Yankees' pitching as close, and many "expert pundits" follow suit.

I think this was a very well thought out and well argued post. Well done.

Agreed, but I have conceerns about both Beckett and Pettitte this year. If Beckett is hurt and doesn't pitch or if he does pitch and pitches like he has a bad back he could look like 06 Josh Beckett.

If Pettitte is out, than there are a whole lot of important innings the Yankees need to fill.

[Lucen]

Agreed, but I have conceerns about both Beckett and Pettitte this year. If Beckett is hurt and doesn't pitch or if he does pitch and pitches like he has a bad back he could look like 06 Josh Beckett.

If Pettitte is out, than there are a whole lot of important innings the Yankees need to fill.

I don't think there is a rotation in baseball that you can't say that about, though. The Angel's might be looking at a huge probelm with their number two possibly headed for surgury. If Kazmir is out this year, Tampa's rotation goes from very strong to very suspect. If Justin Verlander gets hurt, the Tigers probably aren't the favorites in the Central this year. If Santana or Pedro get hurt, the Phillies become the favorites in the NL East... really, is there a rotation in baseball that can withstand the loss of their number 1 or 2 without stumbling?

I think Beckett will be fine with regards to the back. His fingers are always a concern, but the Sox showed they are prepared to handle that in a way that will ensure he's healthy in October... or at least come as close to ensuring it as possible. And the Yankees will probably be just as careful with Andy. If he shows that the aches and pains are getting to him, I bet he gets shut down for a couple of weeks. Both teams have some depth to lean on, and I would be shocked if either failed to do so in order to right the ship at some point in the season with multiple starters.

The Sox should work in some "DL" time for Beckett, Matsuzaka, Buchholz, Wakefield and Lester, and the Yanks should do the same for their rotation. Both teams have youngsters who need to keep their innings down a bit, and both have vets who would benefit from some off time during the season to help them stay fresh down the stretch.

It's going to be an intesting year, with regards to pitching.

[NYDCYankee]

I don't think there is a rotation in baseball that you can't say that about, though. The Angel's might be looking at a huge probelm with their number two possibly headed for surgury. If Kazmir is out this year, Tampa's rotation goes from very strong to very suspect. If Justin Verlander gets hurt, the Tigers probably aren't the favorites in the Central this year. If Santana or Pedro get hurt, the Phillies become the favorites in the NL East... really, is there a rotation in baseball that can withstand the loss of their number 1 or 2 without stumbling?

Of course losing a number 1 or 2 is devestating to all teams. But I think some teams are prepared to handle it better than others. Arizona for example, possibly even Seattle maybe the Cubs. If Beckett goes down (and we all know he is injury prone) that is a lot of pressure that shifts to Dice-K and obviously questions of whether he could handle that.

[Meecham4ever]

I don't think there is a rotation in baseball that you can't say that about, though. The Angel's might be looking at a huge probelm with their number two possibly headed for surgury. If Kazmir is out this year, Tampa's rotation goes from very strong to very suspect. If Justin Verlander gets hurt, the Tigers probably aren't the favorites in the Central this year. If Santana or Pedro get hurt, the Phillies become the favorites in the NL East... really, is there a rotation in baseball that can withstand the loss of their number 1 or 2 without stumbling?

I think Beckett will be fine with regards to the back. His fingers are always a concern, but the Sox showed they are prepared to handle that in a way that will ensure he's healthy in October... or at least come as close to ensuring it as possible. And the Yankees will probably be just as careful with Andy. If he shows that the aches and pains are getting to him, I bet he gets shut down for a couple of weeks. Both teams have some depth to lean on, and I would be shocked if either failed to do so in order to right the ship at some point in the season with multiple starters.

The Sox should work in some "DL" time for Beckett, Matsuzaka, Buchholz, Wakefield and Lester, and the Yanks should do the same for their rotation. Both teams have youngsters who need to keep their innings down a bit, and both have vets who would benefit from some off time during the season to help them stay fresh down the stretch.

It's going to be an intesting year, with regards to pitching.

RAY GUNS: Writing for SportingNews.com, David Pinto says Tampa Bay has a better starting rotation than either the Red Sox or Yankees.

[Lucen]

RAY GUNS: Writing for SportingNews.com, David Pinto says Tampa Bay has a better starting rotation than either the Red Sox or Yankees.

I can't really strongly disagree with anything that's been posted since my last post, but I did want to point out that if Kazmir is healthy this year (big if, considering the arm issues he's having right now), I could see this ending up true. I don't think I'd bet on it, but it's certainly a possibility.

They have some great young arms and even more great arms that could break into the majors this year.

[cyhughes22]

With the season officially started (technically), I figured we could finally sit down and look at our two teams and how they stack up on the mound. I have no qualms with conceding the offensive arms race here and now, and I think it's clear we have the better defensive team, so that leaves pitching as the biggest area of contention. (If you guys want to argue about the defense, feel free to start a thread about it and I'll meet you there.)

So, we'll look at the current staffs, bullpens and depth of each, posting their 2007 numbers and see how we stack up.

Boston      ERA   FIP   K/BB   VORP     New York       ERA   FIP   K/BB   VORP
Beckett     3.27  3.04  4.85   58.6     Wang           3.70  3.75  1.76   48.5
Matsuzaka   4.40  4.19  2.51   37.0     Pettitte       4.05  3.83  2.04   36.8
Wakefield   4.76  4.63  1.72   23.2     Kennedy        4.24  4.24  1.77   22.0*
Lester      4.57  5.20  1.61    9.7**   Hughes         4.46  4.31  2.00   16.1**
Buchholz    4.24  4.24  2.10   22.3*    Mussina        5.15  3.97  2.60   11.0
*Used BP projection across the line. (used projected ERA for FIP as well)
** Used BP projection for VORP only.

So, let's break this down.

Beckett vs. Wang - I don't think there's any question that the Sox have the advantage here. It's not an enormous advantage, but it's a sizable one. I don't think there will be too much argument on this. Both are very good pitchers, but I doubt many here would project Wang to have the better year.

Matsuzaka vs. Pettitte - Again, this one is pretty obvious. Pettitte gets the edge. I think Matsuzaka will improve over his 2007 a little bit, but not enough to close the gap if Pettitte stands pat. Health concerns over Pettitte are the only reason I hesitate in making my choice here, but they're not subtantial enough to change my stance.

Wakefield vs. Kennedy - This one looks like it could be a close and interesting race. I think I'd go with Kennedy in the end, as Wakefield has had durability issues the last couple of years, but if both remain healthy, I think they could post very similar lines by the end of the season. I don't think the advantage for Kennedy is a terribly big one, but it is there and it could be an important one when comparing the staffs holistically.

Lester vs. Hughes - I'm a Sox fan. I'd love to find a justification for picking Lester here, but let's be realistic. It's Hughes. I think Lester will have a respectable season and will do fine as a 4th starter, but I expect Hughes to be better than that. And not by a small margin. The difference here is about as big as the difference I see between Beckett and Wang. So that advantage is evened out here, I think.

Buchholz vs. Mussina - I don't think Moose is cooked. I think he'll bounce back and improve over his 2007 a bit. Not enough to close in on Buchholz, but enough that this isn't a laughable comparison. I think BP's projected line for Buchholz is pretty fair, and I think Moose will see a drop in ERA to about 4.75. In fact, I expect Moose to end up about where Wakefield ended up last season. So, considering that, this difference evens out the advantage Pettitte has over Matsuzaka, in my mind.

Now, looking at depth, I'm not going to post season lines as both teams have a lot of unknowns and questions in their starter depth. So I'll go right to the comparisons.

Colon vs. Chamberlain - I expect Colon to have a solid year... at least a solid year for a guy coming back from a pretty serious injury to his pitching arm. I think he'll be better than the average back of the rotation starter when he starts, and he'll be average for a long reliever/middle reliever. Joba, on the other hand, will likely be better than that as a reliever, and probably as a starter too. When I compare bullpens, I'll touch on his value there, but as starting pitching depth, he gets the nod over Colon, by a noticable but not huge margin.

Tavarez vs. Rasner/Horne/AAA - I think the Sox have the advantage here, no matter which minor leaguer or journeyman veteran acquisition you plug in. Obviously a major trade changes this, but as the rosters and free agent markets currently stand, the Sox take take this one. It should be about as much of an advantage for the Sox here as Kennedy is over Wakefield, meaning the teams are even except for Colon vs Chamberlain.

Finishing the look at the starters, the Yankees "edge" out the Sox.

Now, looking at the bullpens... there's a ton of variation from year to year with bullpen arms. So this could end up being WAY off, but here are the breakdowns for the closers, set up men, and top three middle relievers for each team. (Beyond that, most bullpens have fungible parts.)

Boston      ERA   FIP   K/BB   VORP     New York       ERA   FIP   K/BB   VORP
Papelbon    1.85  2.41  5.60   27.1     Rivera         3.15  2.61  6.17   22.4
Okajima     2.22  3.29  3.71   29.3     Chamberlain    0.38  1.78  5.67   33.6*
Timlin      3.42  4.65  2.21   14.0     Hawkins        3.42  4.43  1.81   15.9
Delcarmen   2.05  3.81  2.41   18.4     Farnsworth     4.80  5.00  1.78    4.8
Lopez       3.10  4.18  1.44   11.3     Bruney         4.68  5.34  1.05    6.2
*BP projected VORP

Papelbon vs. Rivera - At this point in their careers, Papelbon is the better pitcher. There just isn't a statistical justification for stating otherwise. The advantage here is significant, but not major. Both teams will have success in close and late games because of these guys. But Boston does get the edge.

Okajima vs. Chamberlain - I'll just get this out of the way. Advantage Yankees. Evens out the advantage the Sox have at closer. Okajima won't be quite as good as he was last year, but he should still be a very solid set up man, and Chamberlain might not spend the entire season in the pen in this role. So it's tough to get an exact fix on this situation, but yeah... Yankees get the nod here.

Timlin vs. Hawkins - I'm calling this a wash. These guys had very similar 2007 seasons and both project to be similar again this year. This does have the potential to become an advantage for the Yankees, however, if Timlin's age catches up to him and he hits a wall.

Delcarmen vs. Farnsworth - Gotta go Sox here. Farnsworth showed some improvement once the pressure was lessened last year, but he has a lot to prove before I take him over MDC.

Lopez vs. Bruney - Sox again. Bruney just isn't that good and while Lopez is a situational pitcher, I don't think it's tough to imagine him having a bigger positive impact on the Sox than Bruney has on the Yankees. This is the part of the pen where parts become interchangable and there really isn't a huge impact... so this advantage for the Sox doesn't mean much in the total comparison.


So that gives us a bullpen advantage for the Sox. Is it enough to match the rotation advantage the Yanks have? I think it's pretty close to being enough.

That means that after all this, I'm calling this a pretty even match up. These teams should both have very good pitching staffs in 2008 and that means it should be a very fun race for the division, since both teams are going to be solid offensive clubs (advantage Yankees there, yeah, I know) and the Sox are looking to be a pretty good defensive team again as well.

I'll be interested to see what other people here think, and what areas of my breakdown people take issue with.

Edit: The wildcard here is Joba. He could tip the scales on either side of this equation. If he ends up in the rotation, he pulls the Yankees ahead a few more paces. If he stays in the bullpen, I think he closes the gap there a bit. When he goes to the rotation will also play a part in how much he impacts that comparison as well, so it's tough to say just what kind of impact he'll have. But he's going to replace Mussina if he does move, and that means that number 5 spot becomes a pretty even match up with Clay.

I think this is very fair. The only thing I tend to slightly disagree with is the Rivera/Papelbon comparison. I don't think I'd give either the advantage but rather have them dead even. The reason I say this is that Papelbon may have very slightly better stuff(Rivera can still get it up there. Remember he throws a cutter at 92-94 and he can crank the straight stuff up to 95) but Rivera has better control and is more durable(Knock on wood). Other than that I think you did a great job of posting a very fair and intelligent analysis. Good Job.

[Dynasties R Forever]

Seems fair and well thought out to me Lucen.