A quick look at 2007 ALDS Yankees Vs. Indians

[Spags]

Needless to say, I hated seeing the Red Sox win the division, but they played great this year, and they earned it. Overall I like our odds a lot better vs. Cleveland anyway, so the wild card is fine with me!

Now that the matchups are set, I thought I'd do some comparing. You gotta love the numbers!

2007 NY Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians - regular season

Indians Vs. AL East teams: 18-18
Yankees Vs. AL Central teams: 30-11

Yankees won all 6 games
Yankees outscored the tribe 49-17

Hitting stats:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
Yankees	160	5639	947	1628	320	31	200	909	2610	625	977	122	40	0.364	0.463	0.289
Indians	160	5534	804	1484	300	27	178	777	2372	585	1184	72	40	0.343	0.429	0.268
	SF	SH	HBP	IBB	GDP	TPA	NP	XBH	SB%	GO	AO	GO/AO	OPS
Yankees	53	41	77	32	136	6436	24984	551	75.3	1430	1430	1.23	0.827
Indians	59	31	80	56	112	6291	24792	505	64.3	1516	1516	0.98	0.772

After looking at the numbers above, it's hard to believe Cleveland has the better record. I think that is due to other teams playing at a higher level Vs. the Yanks, and some of the unbelievable losses we had, especially 1 run losses in the 1st half.

Pitching stats:

	W	L	ERA	G	CG	SHO	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	HBP	BB	SO
Yankees	92	68	4.47	160	1	5	33	54	1432.2	1483	763	711	145	58	571	1001
Indians	95	65	4.06	160	9	9	48	62	1445.2	1501	698	652	146	55	408	1036
	WPCT	TB	BK	WP	IBB	SB	CS	PK	GO	AO	GO/AO	WHIP	SLG	OBA
Yankees	0.575	2298	6	59	33	135	44	6	1629	1597	1.11	1.43	0.416	0.341
Indians	0.594	2282	2	41	40	92	45	8	1694	1539	1.19	1.32	0.408	0.322

The pitching stats tell a much different story! But lets not forget how many rookie starts we had this year. I bet the 1st 1/2 vs. 2nd 1/2 split would be much more in our favor. This isn't the same Yankee team that was pitching in the 1st 1/2. But give Cleveland's pitchers their due too.

IMHO this is going to be a fun series, but my gut prediction is the Yankees in 4, with at least one game being a total blowout 12-3 or so. It will all depend on the pitching matchups. Of course, that was my prediction for the ALDS last year. This year though, ALL the bats show up, especially Arods. Plus, we got Joba!

This was all the time I had today, but feel free to add some stats or pitcher vs. batter comparisons, please! Or maybe I will have more time tomorrow.

Lets go Yankees! 27 in 2007. Bring on the Scooter the squirrel!

[TheBamTino24]

The biggest key will be our pitching.

We have been eliminated in the ALDS for two straight years now, losing in Game 5 to the Angels in 2005 and in just 4 games to the Tigers last year. I know that's hard to believe given the talent level of our roster in 2005 and 2006. But when you look at the starting pitching, you can certainly understand it.

In 2005, we went down 5-0 and 5-2 after 3 innings in Games 3 and 5, respectively. In 2006, we were down after the 3rd by scores of 3-0 and 4-0 in Games 3 and 4 in Detroit. That's awful to consistently do to your offense in playoff baseball. And your pitching staff. Because you basically have to throw 6 shutout innings every game after that rough start.

FWIW, Mike Mussina, Jaret Wright, and Randy Johnson (2) started those games.

[GoYanks]

On the bright side, the wild card team has won the WS more often than not in recent years. Still, don't underestimate Cleveland. It may not be the team it was in the '90s (note that Jaret Wright helped them to advance then to the WS), but they won't be pushovers. Still, I like our odds, especially compared with the alternatives.

[GIAMBISMYIDOL25]

the biggest thing that worries me is that we havent seen sabbathia. i saw on espn that he got hit with a line drive. i dont know his status tho if he was actually hurt or not

[JSG]

agree w the assorted sentiments above. the O stats are daunting. our lineup has always been great the last bunch of years, but i think it is more balanced this year, and of course we have the a rod factor. he has come up big consistently all year, and i think he is finally ready to break out in october. would also be nice to see duncan, giambi and WB start to groove a bit offensively the next few games.

the pitching stats i would also footnote -- international records for number of rookies and pitching changes, etc. our rotation and pen have been works in progress all year and are in fact still evolving. hopefully ross is on the pen roster and phil is more in the rotation mix or further up in the depth chart than he was a few weeks ago. but however this shakes out, i think you have to feel MUCH better about our pitching overall than at any time since 2003 -- and i personally like it slightly better than 2003 because our pen is much better, and because of wanger + the rooks.

as TBT sez it's all about the pitching. that's basically why we lost the last 4 years. we were outpitched in 03 and 04-06 our pitching was simply spotty. 04 and 06 we fielded over-the-hill veterans in elimination games, and in 05, no disrespect to moose, the sprint to finish out the season did not allow us to set up our pitching so he was the guy. now he is our #4 or out of the pen.

with the dropoff in cleveland's rotation after their big 2, i would have rather faced them in long series, but let's face it, if we play well, we should be able to beat anybody. this is very exciting. i think the karma may finally be with us this year. i am cautiously optimistic. yanks in 4.

[trentonthunder]

It's going to go the distance, and the homefield
disadvantage will possibly cost us the series.

I always feel like the home team has the advantage. It's just me.
We'll need some some awesome hitting and pitching to win, so
Go Yanks !

[Abe Frohman]

I wish we wouldnt be so overly optamistic guys... the first thing thats strikingly scary is Sabathia, in line for the Cy-Young this year, leads the AL in K's but most of all, hes a damned lefty. this team sucks against AAA crappy lefties we havent seen before. facing one of the upper-echilon lefty pitchers in the AL wot be a cakewalk, and we'll see him twice. Carmona can be dominant yet, hes very hittable early on so we'll have to jump on him right away... after those two theres really nothing startling. Hafner can be walked, Borowski is hittable. If we come out firing on all cylinders we can sweep them. if we come out and play fairly well, it could go 4-5 games. for us to lose to them we really have to be playing terribly on all fronts... i say we take it in 4 at home.

[roblyo33]

I wish we wouldnt be so overly optamistic guys... the first thing thats strikingly scary is Sabathia, in line for the Cy-Young this year, leads the AL in K's but most of all, hes a damned lefty. this team sucks against AAA crappy lefties we havent seen before. facing one of the upper-echilon lefty pitchers in the AL wot be a cakewalk, and we'll see him twice. Carmona can be dominant yet, hes very hittable early on so we'll have to jump on him right away... after those two theres really nothing startling. Hafner can be walked, Borowski is hittable. If we come out firing on all cylinders we can sweep them. if we come out and play fairly well, it could go 4-5 games. for us to lose to them we really have to be playing terribly on all fronts... i say we take it in 4 at home.

When did CC pass Kazmir for the K lead??

[Abe Frohman]

the homefield
disadvantage will possibly cost us the series.

The only scenario where i think HFA matters is if an east team has to fly out west (EG. LAAAOAOAAAOAA) ... cleveland to NY is 1hr flight... i highly doubt HFA matters in this series. if we can whoop them at home, we cud def hop on a plane for an hour and whoop them elsewhere.

[Abe Frohman]

When did CC pass Kazmir for the K lead??

check that... lol... i meant IP.

[roblyo33]

check that... lol... i meant IP.

OK.............

[jcarey]

The only scenario where i think HFA matters is if an east team has to fly out west (EG. LAAAOAOAAAOAA) ... cleveland to NY is 1hr flight... i highly doubt HFA matters in this series. if we can whoop them at home, we cud def hop on a plane for an hour and whoop them elsewhere.

good point...i wonder how many yankees fans make it to cleveland. if we can bring some serious noise, we may be able to turn a celeveland advantage into a weakness. there's nothing like feeling that your home turf has been invaded.

[ColombiaYanksFan]

FWIW, Mike Mussina, Jaret Wright, and Randy Johnson (2) started those games.

What a difference from them to Clemens, Pettite and Wang.

[frostdude1]

Guys , I feel nervous going into this series

I feel like its gonna be another typical ALDS that we've seen the past couple of years where we head in against a team that we really dont know and they play their hearts out of course cause its the Yankees and we go home again

cheer me up plzz lol

[teknetic]

So if Cleveland loses and the Sox win, I'm guessing it means the Sox will pick the long series (to pitch Beckett and Schilling twice) and Cleveland will be stuck with the short series and they won't be able to use Fausto and CC twice each?

[b_joseph]

So if Cleveland loses and the Sox win, I'm guessing it means the Sox will pick the long series (to pitch Beckett and Schilling twice) and Cleveland will be stuck with the short series and they won't be able to use Fausto and CC twice each?

Would pitching in the long series really help them against the Angels?

LAA's big 2 are better than Bostons.

[RIYankee23]

It's time for the breaks to start bouncing our way for a change....

Wang and Pettitte will both pitch great games and the Rocket will come back strong in game 3.

Yankees sweep.

[MunsonNY15]

I agree with TBT and everyone else about the pitching being the difference.

In the regular season, it's easier to get away with sub-par pitching if you have a dominant offense (which is what the Yankees did in 2003-2006). But during those same years, their sub-par pitching was exposed in the post season. Not surprising since the offense had to face the opponet's top flight starter, making it harder to score runs and mask the sub-par pitcher.

This year I feel much more confident in our top 3 (and even 4, whether it be Hughes or Mussina) starters. The top three have the ability to do more than just "keep us in the game", which is what we've had to hope for in the past with starters like Jared Wright. The guys we have this year have the ability to shut down an opponet.

I also think our BP is much stronger this year than in years past, with Joba being the main difference. If Farnsworth remains as solid as he has been in his last few outings, and Viz shows up, we're in good shape. Those two coupled with Joba and Mo can shorten a game just like the BP of old (Stanton, Nelson, and Mo).

I have to say, in years past I entered each post season praying for good pitching. This season I'm expecting it. Don't get me wrong, I'm not feeling over-confident. But I certainly have more faith in Wang, Pettitte, Clemens (or even Mussina/Hughes if they have to take his start) than I did in Mussina, Wright, and Johnson.

Heidi

[teknetic]

Would pitching in the long series really help them against the Angels?

LAA's big 2 are better than Bostons.

Lackey has crapped the bed against Boston this season, so I don't think they'd care all too much.

[RIYankee23]

Just to clarify, no matter who finishes w/ the best record the Yankees will play Cleveland in the longer B series with 3 days rest correct?

I heard Kay say that Boston would choose the series w/ 2 days rest and the Indians would take the 3 day rest series.