Dustin Pedroia is a wrap as Rookie of the Year [Merged - Mod]

[YASS]

Fausto Carmona if he qualifies. He's come a long way since blowing games as Cleveland's wannabe closer.

Carmona is not eligible.

[PPlantier]

I think Pedroia has a decent shot (and would be deserving), but does not have it wrapped up. As other posters have noted, the writers are a fickle bunch. Similiar to what Gammons mentioned in his chat yesterday regarding scouts:

"Dustin Pedroia Syndrome". I still hear scouts say that they don't think Pedroia is a good major league player because of his so-called tools; what a joke.

[blumj]

So most Sox fans are at a consensus that Pedroia is more deserving than Okajima or Matsuzaka? From what I know as a Yanks fan I would give it to Daisuke out of those 3 guys, but obviously I'm not watching every sox game.

I doubt there's really much of a consensus. Among the Sox candidates, I think Matsuzaka is most deserving, but comparing starting pitchers to position players is such an apples to oranges kind of thing. The thing that persuades me is that Matsuzaka is likely going to finish the season with more innings than anyone else on the Sox staff, a very un-rookie-like quantity of production, and potentially top 10 in the AL, even if it's not absolute top quality by some measures. It's going to be hard to argue with 200+ IP, 200+ Ks, probable ERA under 4 and maybe 15 or so wins. Pedroia's been protected some from playing too many games, and Okajima has no opportunity to produce at anything close to that rate. Essentially, the same reasons Verlander was the right choice last year. But I could be persuaded by a late push from any of the other candidates, Sox or not.

[Nick Day]

Shelley Duncan has 44 at-bats. Even if he plays every day from now until the end of the season (which, of course, he won't), he won't get enough playing time to garner any votes.

He will probably preserve his eligibility for next season, though.

Actually, not likely. Come the end of the season, since he was not a September Call up, he would have been on the roster way more than the time limit, no?

[YASS]

Actually, not likely. Come the end of the season, since he was not a September Call up, he would have been on the roster way more than the time limit, no?

Ah, you're right. I forgot about the "45 days on a major league roster" eligibility requirement. He won't be rookie eligible next year, and he's not a contender this year.

[blumj]

I think Pedroia has a decent shot (and would be deserving), but does not have it wrapped up. As other posters have noted, the writers are a fickle bunch. Similiar to what Gammons mentioned in his chat yesterday regarding scouts:

Scouts can be really funny that way. I imagine it's a "can't see the forest for the trees" kind of thing. They're so preoccupied with size and speed and arm strength and pretty swings that they sometimes fail to recognize a good baseball player when they see one.

[Nick Day]

back-to-back Red Sox Rookie Of Year Awards. Mark it! Pedroia this season, Buchholz or Ellsbury next season!1!1!oneone!1
[/fanboy/homerism]

[Mark19]

back-to-back Red Sox Rookie Of Year Awards. Mark it! Pedroia this season, Buchholz or Ellsbury next season!1!1!oneone!1
[/fanboy/homerism]

As long as you're willing to admit it

[Nick Day]

Ah, you're right. I forgot about the "45 days on a major league roster" eligibility requirement. He won't be rookie eligible next year, and he's not a contender this year.

Now, for the real baseball fan in me:
I think it's a shame that the Yankees big rookies wont be able to be in the running next season at all. Hughes, Joba, and Duncan: They all have great potential, but came up to late this season to make a ROY impact.

[Mark19]

Now, for the real baseball fan in me:
I think it's a shame that the Yankees big rookies wont be able to be in the running next season at all. Hughes, Joba, and Duncan: They all have great potential, but came up to late this season to make a ROY impact.

AL RoY has become somewhat of a dubious distinction when you consider who has been getting it lately. Verlander will be special but Angel Berroa, Eric Hinske, Ben Grieve, Marty Cordova and Bobby Crosby?

Sheesh. It is almost like the Madden Curse.

[Nick Day]

That's a good point. Though, I firmly believe if a RoY who has a good track record comes onto the scene in a major city like Boston and New York you will be getting who they really are. For example, I believe the Dustin Pedroia we see now, is the Dustin Pedroia we will get for years to come--his track record shows this: hits for average, plays solid D, hustles--and is soon to be looked at like Nomar was for the first few seasons

If they can do it all under pressure like said cities, they will be able to perform well anywhere. But if you come up in a place where the fans would rather wait for the next sport season to come around, well, once you win it, the media, the fans they all begin to think "wow, maybe we have some chances now!" and the former RoY gets all these new, unseen pressures to match or do better the following years. (Though this idea doesn't really work on the Oakland people, as the A's are normally thought of as a possible contender)

Now, does that make sense? If not, sorry.

[JeterRodriguezSheff]

Now, for the real baseball fan in me:
I think it's a shame that the Yankees big rookies wont be able to be in the running next season at all. Hughes, Joba, and Duncan: They all have great potential, but came up to late this season to make a ROY impact.

Eh we still have Kennedy who could make an impact next year. If Hughes, Joba and Duncan all reach their potential than ROY means little to me.

[JeffWeaverFan]

Like I said, Guthrie had a terrific first half, but has an era of 5.04 since the break.

Cool. What's your point? He has a 3.44 ERA overall. That's like saying, "Pedroia has been terrific but he had a .150 BA after the first 6 weeks of the season." Last I checked it is the overall performance that matters.

[JeffWeaverFan]

Camden Yards is a neutral park offensively. Guthrie is 28 years old (and his peripherals suggest that he's not a 3.44 era pitcher). I really can't see him winning the award

When did age matter for this award?

Peripherals are nice to look at for future success, but in terms of what a player has actually done to help the team, they don't help. Dustin Pedroia's minor league career suggest that he is not a ML .323 hitter... Who cares if it is an award that is about what the player has done this year?

The only reason he might not win the award is because sports writers probably still don't know who he is. These are the same guys that voted for Morneau over Jeter when Morneau was the 3rd most valuable player on his own team last year, so I don't exactly expect them to get this thing right.

[YASS]

Cool. What's your point? He has a 3.44 ERA overall. That's like saying, "Pedroia has been terrific but he had a .150 BA after the first 6 weeks of the season." Last I checked it is the overall performance that matters.

It shouldn't make any difference, but since the votes are made at the end of the season, it's much better to suck in April than it is to suck in August and September.

[hunter05]

It shouldn't make any difference, but since the votes are made at the end of the season, it's much better to suck in April than it is to suck in August and September.

Exactly

[Nick Day]

When did age matter for this award?

Peripherals are nice to look at for future success, but in terms of what a player has actually done to help the team, they don't help. Dustin Pedroia's minor league career suggest that he is not a ML .323 hitter...

Not .323, but his career minor league average is .316. So he very well may be a career ML .300+ hitter

[hunter05]

Dustin Pedroia's minor league career suggest that he is not a ML .323 hitter...

Really? Did you not even bother to look his minor league numbers up? In his MiL career he hit .308/.392/.453 He had one season where he hit below .300, and that was when he suffered a shoulder injury. Despite whatever people think of Pedroia and their view of his size and "tools" He has hit like this at every level of his career.

[Nick Day]

I did, but I didn't have a lot of time, so I just used each stop along the way, no matter how long it was.
And that is:
2004 Augusta: .400
2004 Sarasota: .336
2004 Scottsdale(Fall) .276
2005 Portland: .324
2005 Pawtucket: .255
2006 Pawtucket: .305

[hunter05]

What is even more interesting is that, there is nothing about Cano's MiL numbers to suggest he is a .300 hitter.

[hunter05]

I did, but I didn't have a lot of time, so I just used each stop along the way, no matter how long it was.
And that is:
2004 Augusta: .400
2004 Sarasota: .336
2004 Scottsdale(Fall) .276
2005 Portland: .324
2005 Pawtucket: .255
2006 Pawtucket: .305

My post wasn't in references to yours, we basically said the same thing. The .255 season was the season in which he injured his shoulder.

Edit: However, where did you get the .276 from? His baseball cube page doesn't have that listed.

[hunter05]

I found it on soxprospects, which is where I should have checked originally.

http://soxprospects.com/players/pedroia-dustin.htm

Edit: And it was only 54 ABs.

[Nick Day]

His winter ball average. I was going off of the stuff on Soxprospects.com so I just kept that in there

Edit. Sorry hunter. My bad. hahah I for some reason thought you were talking to me.

[keg411]

The AL ROY field is very weak this year. I expect Pedroia to win it easily. Of course, that doesn't mean I think he has a great upside. He's still basically a slightly better version David Eckstein. I'm sure the Red Sox will take him -- decent player, but probably not a "star".

[JeterRodriguezSheff]

Not .323, but his career minor league average is .316. So he very well may be a career ML .300+ hitter

Eh Career minor league numbers said Cano would be nothing special, and now he is one of the best second baseman in the league. I think tools are more important to evaluating a minor leaguer's potential, while results tell you how likely it is for him to reach that potential.

[hunter05]

The AL ROY field is very weak this year. I expect Pedroia to win it easily. Of course, that doesn't mean I think he has a great upside. He's still basically a slightly better version David Eckstein. I'm sure the Red Sox will take him -- decent player, but probably not a "star".

Pedroia is anything but Eckstein, he is more Giles than Eckstein. Eckstein might be the defintion of a light hitting, slap hitting small middle infielder. Pedroia's comp is more Marcus Giles than Eckstein

[JeterRodriguezSheff]

What is even more interesting is that, there is nothing about Cano's MiL numbers to suggest he is a .300 hitter.

But he has always had the tools to be great, nice quick bat(goes to the opposite field real well) and good power for a middle infielder. Now he seems to be slowly gaining patience and making adjustments. It just happened that he put it all together on the MLB level.

[wwjdd]

Eh Career minor league numbers said Cano would be nothing special, and now he is one of the best second baseman in the league. I think tools are more important to evaluating a minor leaguer's potential, while results tell you how likely it is for him to reach that potential.

You may be right. I think Nick was only responding to a post that said that nothing in Pedroia's MiL numbers indicated that he could hit .300 in the majors.

[YASS]

My post wasn't in references to yours, we basically said the same thing. The .255 season was the season in which he injured his shoulder.

Edit: However, where did you get the .276 from? His baseball cube page doesn't have that listed.

Baseballcube doesn't list fall or winter ball stats.

[Dave Visbeck]

What is even more interesting is that, there is nothing about Cano's MiL numbers to suggest he is a .300 hitter.

I'm dating myself way back ... but how about that Rookie of the Year/MVP winner in the same year of 1975? Fred Lynn hit how well in the minors? I know when first called up with the Sox in about September of 1974 that he hit over .400 then. I thought he was maybe hitting in the .290's down on the farm ... but I've been wrong before ... so could be wrong again.

[YASS]

I'm dating myself way back ... but how about that Rookie of the Year/MVP winner in the same year of 1975? Fred Lynn hit how well in the minors? I know when first called up with the Sox in about September of 1974 that he hit over .400 then. I thought he was maybe hitting in the .290's down on the farm ... but I've been wrong before ... so could be wrong again.

Fred Lynn spent a partial season in AA and an almost-full season in Pawtucket with a cumulative .276 batting average over 576 at-bats. No one could have predicted his 1975 season from that.

[Dave Visbeck]

The AL ROY field is very weak this year. I expect Pedroia to win it easily. Of course, that doesn't mean I think he has a great upside. He's still basically a slightly better version David Eckstein. I'm sure the Red Sox will take him -- decent player, but probably not a "star".

AL ROY is weak? Are you just saying that because three Sox players could be in the hunt maybe?
It should be easy against the rest of the American League for Pedroia to win ... but I guess everything could all change fast if Matsuzaka gets a big win on August 28th.

Not forgetting about his other six starts he has left -- including one he'll win that clinches the AL East on September 27th -- that will make his record, as I see it ... at 18-11! ..... .....

[Dave Visbeck]

Fred Lynn spent a partial season in AA and an almost-full season in Pawtucket with a cumulative .276 batting average over 576 at-bats. No one could have predicted his 1975 season from that.

Yes, sir re Bob! Who could of -- that did?

[JeterRodriguezSheff]

AL ROY is weak? Are you just saying that because three Sox players could be in the hunt maybe?
It should be easy against the rest of the American League for Pedroia to win ... but I guess everything could all change fast if Matsuzaka gets a big win on August 28th.

Not forgetting about his other six starts he has left -- including one he'll win that clinches the AL East on September 27th -- that will make his record, as I see it ... at 18-11! ..... .....

I think we was talking about players who actually rookies. Not players who were considered superstars who are considered rookies.

Also I dont get the point of post like these, you cant predict the future just like none of can. So acting like it is set in stone that the Red Sox will win and clinch the East, is only going to make you look bad if the Yankees win the East for the third straight year after everybody counted them out early on.(To be fair last year was slightly different, they took the division lead a lot earlier, doesnt change the fact that ESPN said they wouldnt make the playoffs early in the season)

[SoxFanInCali]

Also I dont get the point of post like these, you cant predict the future just like none of can.

Isn't predicting the future what we all waste an incredible amount of time trying to do around here?

[Dave Visbeck]

I think we was talking about players who actually rookies. Not players who were considered superstars who are considered rookies.

Also I dont get the point of post like these, you cant predict the future just like none of can. So acting like it is set in stone that the Red Sox will win and clinch the East, is only going to make you look bad if the Yankees win the East for the third straight year after everybody counted them out early on.(To be fair last year was slightly different, they took the division lead a lot earlier, doesnt change the fact that ESPN said they wouldnt make the playoffs early in the season)

I'm sorry. Not set in stone actually. It's what my tea leaves told me!

[JeterRodriguezSheff]

Isn't predicting the future what we all waste an incredible amount of time trying to do around here?

Sort of. We also discuss things and offer opinions on events already passed. I worded that poorly. I dont have a problem with him predicting the future. Its the acting like its set in stone thing. It really doesnt bother me but I dont understand why people do it, especially a Red Sox fan on a Yankee forum. You dont get anything out of it for being right, but if you are wrong, people will rip you a new one.

[Dave Visbeck]

Sort of. We also discuss things and offer opinions on events already passed. I worded that poorly. I dont have a problem with him predicting the future. Its the acting like its set in stone thing. It really doesnt bother me but I dont understand why people do it, especially a Red Sox fan on a Yankee forum. You dont get anything out of it for being right, but if you are wrong, people will rip you a new one.

I live for pain. I like sticking my neck way out.

[OlgMvp]

wait...why wouldn't Bannister qualify? He only had 38 IP in his major league career before this season?


Did he spend more than 45 days on the mets roster in 2006?

[Nick Day]

Well, he made 6 starts last season, which is at least 30 days on the roster(but with off days, probably more than that), and he also had 2 other games pitched, so he likely could have been on the roster for 45 days last season

[YASS]

wait...why wouldn't Bannister qualify? He only had 38 IP in his major league career before this season?


Did he spend more than 45 days on the mets roster in 2006?

Here's his gamelog. Looks like he was up for the entire month of April and then came back up in August for the remainder of the season, so, yeah, more than 45 days.

[scull567]

When did age matter for this award?

The only reason he might not win the award is because sports writers probably still don't know who he is. These are the same guys that voted for Morneau over Jeter when Morneau was the 3rd most valuable player on his own team last year, so I don't exactly expect them to get this thing right.

Age matters, probably in the eyes of the voters, because rookies usually aren't almost 30. If you look over the recent award winners, you usually don't see guys that old.

You make it sound like Guthrie is the no-brainer choice and the writers are stupid if they choose otherwise. Thats simply not the case. Guthrie not winning the roy is in no way comparable to Jeter not winning the MVP last year.

[cupcollector99]

Since he's not a Yankee, he should be a lock.

He's been a pretty important cog in the BoSox wheel this season, especially with Crisp and Lugo hitting so inconsistently and Manny/Ortiz having a low power year.
He has great instincts in the field and has shown he can hit ML pitching.

I wonder if he'll still be able to get the student discount at Dunkin Donuts if he wins?

[YASS]

Since he's not a Yankee, he should be a lock.

He's been a pretty important cog in the BoSox wheel this season, especially with Crisp and Lugo hitting so inconsistently and Manny/Ortiz having a low power year.
He has great instincts in the field and has shown he can hit ML pitching.

I wonder if he'll still be able to get the student discount at Dunkin Donuts if he wins?

Not unless he wears a hat.

[jughead]

That'll be nice of him to win the last Rookie of the Year award before it officially becomes the Joba Award of Awesomness

[YASS]

That'll be nice of him to win the last Rookie of the Year award before it officially becomes the Joba Award of Awesomness

If Joba stays up the rest of the season, he won't be eligible next year.

[JDPNYY]

If Joba stays up the rest of the season, he won't be eligible next year.

nyah nyah
nyah nyah nyah

[jughead]

If Joba stays up the rest of the season, he won't be eligible next year.

The JAoA contains no such stipulations

[YASS]

The JAoA contains no such stipulations

In that case, he's got my vote.

[CallOfTheCrow]

Since he's not a Yankee, he should be a lock.

He's been a pretty important cog in the BoSox wheel this season, especially with Crisp and Lugo hitting so inconsistently and Manny/Ortiz having a low power year.
He has great instincts in the field and has shown he can hit ML pitching.

I wonder if he'll still be able to get the student discount at Dunkin Donuts if he wins?

If he sends some coffee & donuts my way, he'd get my vote.