Let's start worrying about the 2008 payroll...!

[CaptainThurman]

The thought process goes something like this -- we're really in the first full year of Cashman trying to not trade away youth for inflexible veteran contracts, trying to restore some roster flexibility, and trying to get younger and more athletic. But does he still have a salary albatross around his neck?

Here is my "back of the envelope" quick analysis....

C -- Posada and Molina will cost about $15-16 million next year, combined.

1B -- Giambi is at $22 million, and he and his contract are immovable. The probable back ups are Shelley Duncan or Andy Phillips, so let's say $23 million combined, unless they sign a real full time 1B.

2B -- Cano is still cheap, but I believe Betemit will be arbitration eligible, so the two of them together ought to be a bargain at about $2.5 million.

SS -- Jeter will knock down about $21 million next year, more or less.

3B -- A-Rod is the question mark, insofar as his decision to walk. This position will either cost the Yankees $30+ million to keep A-Rod, $10-15 million to get someone else, or about $2 million to hand the job to Betemit.

OF -- Another question mark, insofar as Abreu is concerned, and also depedning on whether or not Damon is moved. But regardless, the $13 million slot for an outfielder is established, so add up the OF to about $40 million, give or take.

Bench -- Not much, and Molina, Melky and Betemit were already counted in the position totals, but let's add a million bucks just to account for a few extras like Duncan or Cairo or some other piece parts.

SP -- Let's start with Pavano and his $10 million of nothingness. Add Mussina and his $12 million of almost nothingness. Pettitte has a $16 million option that he will probably exercise, and if not, someone else will get that salary slot. Wang is arbitration eligible, I believe, so mark him down at $6 million. Hughes will be the bargain at $400K, and Igawa makes $5 million. And someone is likely to fill the Clemens slot at $10-15 million, or even more. That's about $60-65 million for Starting Pitchers.

RP -- Mo will knock down a good $12.5 million, and Farnsworth, whether or not he's with the Yankees, will cost a solid $5 million. I'm going to guess that 5 or 6 other middle relievers will run about $2 million each, or $10-12 million, bringing the relief corps total to $25-27 million.

So....without any major moves or salary dumping, and bringing back largely the same team in 2008, the payroll will come to more than $200 million (depending on what happens at 3B).

That's scary....the only way Cashman gets the salary situation under control is to let A-Rod walk and sign a less expensive 3B option, and bring Chamberlain, Kennedy and the rest of the kiddie corps into the SP/RP mix. Even then, he only gets down to the $160s millions....

2009 might be a slighlyt different story -- Pavano, Giambi, Mussina, Abreu and maybe even Damon will be gone, but replacing them will cost another boatload of cash....

[ppa79]

Igawa makes 4 million dollars.

[ppa79]

2009 might be a slighlyt different story -- Pavano, Giambi, Mussina, Abreu and maybe even Damon will be gone, but replacing them will cost another boatload of cash....

Pettitte and Farnworth will be gone too.

Our 2009 rotation should shape up like this:

Wang, Hughes, Joba, Kennedy or Horne

Use the money to get Santana and Texiera.

[Big Game Andy]

C -- Posada and Molina will cost about $15-16 million next year, combined.

Molina got paid $850,000 this year and there is no way Posada makes $15 miliion a year next year.

RP -- Mo will knock down a good $12.5 million, and Farnsworth, whether or not he's with the Yankees, will cost a solid $5 million. I'm going to guess that 5 or 6 other middle relievers will run about $2 million each, or $10-12 million, bringing the relief corps total to $25-27 million.

I can guarentee you that 5 to 6 of our middle relievers will not run at about $2 million each. Most of these guys are still in arbitration, the only guy you have to factor in is Vizciano and perhaps Bruney. No way we spend $25 million on our relief.

[Rastven]

But does he still have a salary albatross around his neck?

It's really that big a deal? I mean in baseball salary is basically a number with no consequence because the cap isn't a hard one. Other than the luxury tax of course but that just effects the team profitability which remains high anyway because of YES, high attendance etc, etc.

08 will be the last year the Yankees have a huge payroll as the young pitchers come on stream with maybe a single FA bumping the value. From then on more position players should filter in to replace the older vets or possibly younger FA's are used but even then the money would be as crazy as now because of the cash we save on the starting staff.

[Mantle'sMutt]

Let's not and say that we did.

[Skars]

i'm really worried!!!!

[Cheesyhoboe]

Pettitte and Farnworth will be gone too.

Our 2009 rotation should shape up like this:

Wang, Hughes, Joba, Kennedy or Horne

Use the money to get Santana and Texiera.

I would love to see our 2009 rotation all home-grown, but do you really think all 4 of those guys are going to pan out? I just don't see it, when does that EVER happen?

[Nome]

It'n not how much we spend, it's how we spend it. Lately we have thrown money away on useless players. Clemens' $18 million, Giambi isn't (and won't) earn his $22 MM salary; Pavano and Farnsworth's $15 MM and Mussina's $15 MM and Damon's whatever all are collectively producing little to nothing.

If we go out to spend in the free agent market it should be with a lot more wisdom than we have had to date.

Finally, as Good as ARod is, is he really worth $30 MM a year?

Andy

[JL25and3]

Finally, as Good as ARod is, is he really worth $30 MM a year?

Worth it? I don't know how to answer that question - is any baseball player worth $30M, or $20M, or $5M? The question really isn't whether he's worth it, but whether the Yankees can afford to let him walk. He's not replaceable, and the team is in pretty desperate straits without him. Sign him.

As for the original post: first, Cano will be arbitration-eligible. He has 6 fewer days of service than Wang, and they'll both be eligible as Super-2's.

Second, as to the thread title: no, let's not worry. There isn't much in the way of big-ticket free agents hitting the market this year, so they only need to concentrate on signing Rodriguez, Posada and Rivera. And who cares if they get the payroll below $160M or not? Remember, starting in 2009, their revenue stream will increase dramatically.

[brosiusbuddy]

Who cares about the payroll? I honestly don't get why any fans give a crap about payroll. Whether the Yankees have a 20 million dollar or a 200 million dollar payroll, tickets will still be expensive. Let the Yankees spend whatever it takes to put the best team out there.

[nnysiny]

Who cares about the payroll? I honestly don't get why any fans give a crap about payroll. Whether the Yankees have a 20 million dollar or a 200 million dollar payroll, tickets will still be expensive. Let the Yankees spend whatever it takes to put the best team out there.

you should care because it affects future transactions. this thread isnt about ticket prices

[Dr. Gonzo]

2009 is the year where it really all changes, next year is business as usual.

i don't see arod getting 30+ million a year, who will pay that?

[Rastven]

you should care because it affects future transactions. this thread isnt about ticket prices

Unless new ownership takes over or the value of the club and assets plummet I can't see the Yankees ever being inhibited from making a big deal if it's needed.

[GrouchoNYY]

Let's not and say that we did.

=======
I wholly agree. Microworrying is endemic here. Loosen up and enjoy the baseball ( a radical idea).

[nnysiny]

Unless new ownership takes over or the value of the club and assets plummet I can't see the Yankees ever being inhibited from making a big deal if it's needed.

time for me to pull the "Carlos Beltran card" for the umpteenth time.

remember when the Yankees had to pass on Beltran because they put a ton of money into Randy Johnson?

[hatfieldms]

so we should let arod walk to keep our salary cap below 200 million? That is pretty stupid. It isnt like the payroll is crippling us. No way the Yankees should let arod walk

[YankeePride1967]

Let's not and say that we did.

Exactly. Did I miss something? Were we mathematically eliminated last night?

[YASS]

Exactly. Did I miss something? Were we mathematically eliminated last night?

Not last night.

[Krall]

you should care because it affects future transactions. this thread isnt about ticket prices

I used to care, but the Yankees will always have the highest payroll and even if someday that only amounts $1M more then the RedSox payroll it will still be a sticking point in the baseball universe.

It's also kind of futile in that George got this payroll at the level it is and the only way it's going to go down is through contract experation.

[Jasbro]

I still don't understand why people here keep pining for Beltran.

He has only had one year of performance out of almost three so far that has been worthy of of his contract.

If monetary contraints kept us from signing Beltran 3 years ago, then we lucked out.

The Mets still have about $80 million to pay Beltran over the remainder of his contract.

Despite the disappointment that was Randy Johnson, I'd argue we got far more bang for the bucks we spent on RJ than the Mets will get from Beltran.

[ppa79]

If possible we should try to get the payroll below 155 for 2008 and below 162 for 2009. Those are the luxury tax thresholds.

[YankeePride1967]

If possible we should try to get the payroll below 155 for 2008 and below 162 for 2009. Those are the luxury tax thresholds.

And people laughed at me last year and in the off-season when I suggested the Yanks try to do this (by developing their farm system as they have since done). I am not sure if 155 is possible in 2008, but I think by 09 it is.

[ppa79]

And people laughed at me last year and in the off-season when I suggested the Yanks try to do this (by developing their farm system as they have since done). I am not sure if 155 is possible in 2008, but I think by 09 it is.

I think the 2009 threshold is definitely possible. WIth Giambi, Pettite, Mussina, Pavano, Farnsworth, assuming we pick up Abreu's option, we got about 81 million coming off the books. And most of those guys will be replaced with guys from the minors who make the league minimum.

[YASS]

If possible we should try to get the payroll below 155 for 2008 and below 162 for 2009. Those are the luxury tax thresholds.

I think it would be a mistake for the Yankees to limit themselves by adopting an artificial salary cap, particularly when their revenues are about to increase with the new ballpark.

The key objective should be spending intelligently, not spending less.

[YankeePride1967]

I think the 2009 threshold is definitely possible. WIth Giambi, Pettite, Mussina, Pavano, Farnsworth, assuming we pick up Abreu's option, we got about 81 million coming off the books. And most of those guys will be replaced with guys from the minors who make the league minimum.

Agreed. I think 08 will be tough only because we still will have Mussina and Giambi on the books and we also will have to give a raise to Mariano and Jorge as well. And A-Rod isn't even in the equation yet. Mussina and Giambi will be around $35 million alone coming off the books after 08. Abreu is an interesting thing though as we could save quite a bit there.

[ppa79]

I think it would be a mistake for the Yankees to limit themselves by adopting an artificial salary cap, particularly when their revenues are about to increase with the new ballpark.

The key objective should be spending intelligently, not spending less.

I like those salary caps because that means other teams aren't getting the Yankee money. It annoys me when teams complain eventhough they get Yankee money.

[YankeePride1967]

I think it would be a mistake for the Yankees to limit themselves by adopting an artificial salary cap, particularly when their revenues are about to increase with the new ballpark.

The key objective should be spending intelligently, not spending less.

The one thing that I would like to avoid though (with exceptions, I think A-Rod is one of them) those contracts for long durations (more than 4 years).

[ppa79]

Agreed. I think 08 will be tough only because we still will have Mussina and Giambi on the books and we also will have to give a raise to Mariano and Jorge as well. And A-Rod isn't even in the equation yet. Mussina and Giambi will be around $35 million alone coming off the books after 08. Abreu is an interesting thing though as we could save quite a bit there.

Mo is makng 10.5, at max he'll probably get 12.5.

Jorge is making 12 this year. Mostly likely he'll be taking a paycut. I don't care what kind of season he is having, I don't see any team out there giving a 35-36 year old catcher a big multiyear deal.

[YankeePride1967]

Mo is makng 10.5, at max he'll probably get 12.5.

Jorge is making 12 this year. Mostly likely he'll be taking a paycut. I don't care what kind of season he is having, I don't see any team out their giving a 35-36 year old catcher a big multiyear deal.

I agree on Mo, but not with Posada. I think his age will affect the length of the deal, but there is absolutely no way he takes less for 08. I expect him to sign a 2-3 (most likely 2 and an option) at around $13-15 million per.

[ppa79]

I agree on Mo, but not with Posada. I think his age will affect the length of the deal, but there is absolutely no way he takes less for 08. I expect him to sign a 2-3 (most likely 2 and an option) at around $13-15 million per.

No way. Who do you expect to give him 13-15 a year. Looking at history, what 36 year old catchers have gotten that kind of money? The Yanks have to be tough with Posada, give him a 2 year 20 million dollar deal or let him walk.

[YankeePride1967]

No way. Who do you expect to give him 13-15 a year. Looking at history, what 36 year old catchers have gotten that kind of money? The Yanks have to be tough with Posada, give him a 2 year 20 million dollar deal or let him walk.

Supply and demand. If he showed any sign of decline this year, I'd agree, but he seems to be getting better. If the Yanks offer is 2/20 Jorge will be playing for someone else and we will have Molina and Nievers as our catchers. If after the time he's been a Yankee and the way he's played (this year especially) and the Yanks offered a paycut like that I'd tell the Yanks where to go.

[ppa79]

Supply and demand. If he showed any sign of decline this year, I'd agree, but he seems to be getting better. If the Yanks offer is 2/20 Jorge will be playing for someone else and we will have Molina and Nievers as our catchers. If after the time he's been a Yankee and the way he's played (this year especially) and the Yanks offered a paycut like that I'd tell the Yanks where to go.

Last time I checked, 10 million dollars for a catcher that is going to be 37 years old is probably the best deal in baseball history. The thing is he isn't going to get better, history and age are against him. If he wants to walk, then let him walk. The Yanks then should try to sign Michael Barrett

[YankeePride1967]

Last time I checked, 10 million dollars for a catcher that is going to be 37 years old is probably the best deal in baseball history. The thing is he isn't going to get better, history and age are against him. If he wants to walk, then let him walk. The Yanks then should try to sign Michael Barrett

If he were earning less than that this year, I might be a bit agreeable. But to ask someone coming off a great year to take a paycut, he will turn it down. 37 is only an issue if at 35 there is signs of decline. I see none. He will get more money elsewhere so if the Yanks want him back, they have to come to the table. Heck, he may even get 3 from someone, but I wouldn't go 3 years.

Michael Barrett? After losing Sheffield I've had my full of headcases.

[primetime714]

I don't really care what the Payroll is but I'd just like to see the team invest more wisely. Lets stop wasting money on guys like Pavano, Igawa, and Farnsworth.

This offseason I'd like to see us keep our team for the most part intact. We should get a nice boost from the minors with a full season of Hughes and then Joba and Kennedy being ready to be called up into the rotation. I'd just like to see us bring back most of our guys and lock down our bullpen particularly the setup spots. That should put us right around where we're at right now which is fine by me.

Then in 2009 we'll free up a lot of money and hopefully guys like Texeira, Santana, and Sabathia will not be locked up before then.

[brosiusbuddy]

you should care because it affects future transactions. this thread isnt about ticket prices

LOL. Does it? Does the fact that we have something like 3 of the 5 most expensive contracts in baseball as well as the highest payroll stop us from posting 20 some odd million for a ................ty Japanese pitcher? Did it stop us from being the top bidder for Roger Clemens? Would an already high payroll ever stop cashman from being the highest bidder for premier guys down the line such as Johan Santana? Does the highest payroll in baseball mean the Yankees won't fork over $800 million of their own money to build their new stadium?

The answer is no. The Yankees continually make more money than any other franchise and chances are they'll continue to spend more than any other franchise.

[Matsui55]

No way. Who do you expect to give him 13-15 a year. Looking at history, what 36 year old catchers have gotten that kind of money? The Yanks have to be tough with Posada, give him a 2 year 20 million dollar deal or let him walk.

Remember as well that because Posada vested the option year this season by meeting the games played incentives, he will be paid $4M by the Yanks next year whether he plays for them or not. That will help assauge any pay cut, as his agent can still "add in" the $4M and claim its a bigger salary for 2008.

For example, let's assume that the Yanks give Posada a 2 year $20M deal (the first year guaranteed, second year a joint option season). His agent would publically announce it as a 2 year $24M deal because the Yanks would be paying him the extra $4M- and the agent could claim he is being truthful, because Posada WOULD be getting paid the $24M over two years (assuming option exercised).

Furthermore, Posada IS getting older. Playing C is the most brutal job in baseball- foul tips, squatting for hours at a time, playing in extra equipment in the high heat and humidity, etc. It takes a lot out of even young players. We see more and more stars hit the wall in their late 30's- and few C outside of Pudge have ever played well after 35- even Jonny Bench was a 3B by then (and so was Joe Torre).

The Yanks, loyalty aside, cannot commit themselves to a multi-year deal without escape clauses at Posada's age- he WILL be 36 next year, and nothing can change that. I think that if the above deal (2 years- 1st year guaranteed, 2nd year joint player/team option) were offered, he would take it.

That way, if the decline comes suddenly- and with a C it can literally occur overnight- the Yanks have a graceful way out- just don't exercise the option (much like they did with Bernie). There are no trades or releases or benchings involved- the two sides just walk away with no commitments.

Grabbing Molina was an acknowledgement that they need a C who could step in and start for long stretches if Posada declines, until a younger, better C arrives. No one in the Yanks system is within 3 years of NY, so that C will have to come from outside.

[ppa79]

If he were earning less than that this year, I might be a bit agreeable. But to ask someone coming off a great year to take a paycut, he will turn it down. 37 is only an issue if at 35 there is signs of decline. I see none. He will get more money elsewhere so if the Yanks want him back, they have to come to the table. Heck, he may even get 3 from someone, but I wouldn't go 3 years.

There is no point of giving him more money, because the probability of him having a season like this year is low. You'll be giving him a lot of money for his declining years.

When you say 3 from someone, who do you think will give him 3 years?

When Ivan Rodriguez became a free agent back in 2003 after coming off an incredible season when he was 31 years old there were like no suitors. He had to settle with a 1 year contract with the Marlins.

[Nome]

Worth it? I don't know how to answer that question - is any baseball player worth $30M, or $20M, or $5M? The question really isn't whether he's worth it, but whether the Yankees can afford to let him walk. He's not replaceable, and the team is in pretty desperate straits without him. Sign him.

As for the original post: first, Cano will be arbitration-eligible. He has 6 fewer days of service than Wang, and they'll both be eligible as Super-2's.

Second, as to the thread title: no, let's not worry. There isn't much in the way of big-ticket free agents hitting the market this year, so they only need to concentrate on signing Rodriguez, Posada and Rivera. And who cares if they get the payroll below $160M or not? Remember, starting in 2009, their revenue stream will increase dramatically.

He's not replaceable???? What have the Yankees won since he's been here???
Let him go if he wants more money and sign someone for $10 MM or less and use the rest of the money on Pitching. That's what we need more than a $30- $35 million 3Bman.

Andy

[Matsui55]

Last time I checked, 10 million dollars for a catcher that is going to be 37 years old is probably the best deal in baseball history. The thing is he isn't going to get better, history and age are against him. If he wants to walk, then let him walk. The Yanks then should try to sign Michael Barrett

I think that the best option might be to visit the Angels again, and see if they are willing to deal Jeff Mathis.

Remember that the Angels have expressed interest in various times in Giambi, and when he was a FA, Damon. Since Giambi is entering the last season of that awful deal in 2008, if the Yanks were willing to eat half of the $20M (assuming Giambi proves healthy in August/September), the Angels would probably not feel too bad about paying Giambi $10M for a year and decide if they want to keep him later.

If the Yanks offered Giambi, plus half of his salary, I think the Angels might be willing to deal Mathis (remember that the starter is Napoli there) and maybe a lesser prospect too.

[ppa79]

I think that the best option might be to visit the Angels again, and see if they are willing to deal Jeff Mathis.

Remember that the Angels have expressed interest in various times in Giambi, and when he was a FA, Damon. Since Giambi is entering the last season of that awful deal in 2008, if the Yanks were willing to eat half of the $20M (assuming Giambi proves healthy in August/September), the Angels would probably not feel too bad about paying Giambi $10M for a year and decide if they want to keep him later.

If the Yanks offered Giambi, plus half of his salary, I think the Angels might be willing to deal Mathis (remember that the starter is Napoli there) and maybe a lesser prospect too.

Giambi has said he doesn't want to be traded and has a full NTC. For him to be traded, the Angels would have to give him an extension.

[Matsui55]

He's not replaceable???? What have the Yankees won since he's been here???
Let him go if he wants more money and sign someone for $10 MM or less and use the rest of the money on Pitching. That's what we need more than a $30- $35 million 3Bman.

Andy

The Yanks won a bunch of titles with Charlie Hayes and Brosius at 3B- neither of whom would EVER be mistaken for ARod.

Cano and Cabrera are emerging as legitimate bottom of the lineup hitters. Matsui will be returning, and the Yanks just might exercise Abreu's option.

If the Yanks didn't spend money on ARod, they could use it all to get a righty 1B OR spend some of it to send to another team to trade Giambi (entering last year of contract- eat half- about $10M) and possibly Damon too (half of $26M- the amount due over the next two years- is $13M).

While neither would bring back a ton in a deal, they could both be used to fill holes while Betemit covers 3B. For example, if the Yanks got a young C and a couple of quality veteran bullpen arms for Damon and Giambi, I think they come out ahead.

If the Yanks had Melky in CF, Jeter at SS, Cano at 2B, Abreu in RF, Matsui at DH and Posada at C (assuming they give him the deal I noted in another post), that's a solid core. They could fill in LF, 3B and 1B without great difficulty- Betemit could take 3B, they could continue using Phillips at 1B until a better deal comes along- and there are a LOT of OF available every winter.

It would also give the Yanks another year to push along their young hitters in the minors to see who steps up- there is a small batch of OF who may be in AA next year. If the Yanks buy them another year, they MIGHT be able to fill from within and prevent the panic signings like Damon and Pavano.

[Matsui55]

Giambi has said he doesn't want to be traded and has a full NTC. For him to be traded, the Angels would have to give him an extension.

I think they are interested in that- remember that without Garrett Anderson, that team is VERY righty at the plate. To them, it would be just like the ARod deal for the Yanks- they give him a couple more years at a more realistic rate, and the Yanks partially subsidize it.

Giambi is a California guy, and might find going back a little better than dealing with NY and the media there.

[YankeePride1967]

Giambi could be traded, but we'd have to pick up something like 75% of his salary to get anything of value in return.

[YASS]

Giambi could be traded, but we'd have to pick up something like 75% of his salary to get anything of value in return.

So you'd lose his bat, but not gain very much in salary flexibility. I can't see that happening.

[YankeePride1967]

So you'd lose his bat, but not gain very much in salary flexibility. I can't see that happening.

Exactly. I am not a fan of trading players and picking up much of their salary. I'd rather hold on to him and HOPE he can stay healthy, even as a full-time DH.

[ppa79]

There are always odd cases. But what sign has there from Posada that he is anywhere close to a slowdown? There are two components in a contract. Dollar amounts and length. Performance is the primary driver of the dollars, age is the pr imary driver of years. If age was the primary driver of dollars, Clemens wouldn't be getting a pro-rated $28 million deal. Glavine wouldn't be getting his annual salary. Posada will decline at some point, but there isn't even the slightest hint of it as of now. Pudge was more of a case of the agent than anything else.

Of all the catchers in the history of mlb which ones have performed at a high level at the age of 37?


As another poster stated, 2 yrs 20 million with the second year being a mutual option. Otherwise let him walk. Posada will see that there aren't a lot of opportunities out there for a 37 year old catcher who wants big money. I don't think I can name any teams that would want him at his price.

Yankees - yes
Boston - no (varitek)
Dodgers - no (Martin)
Angels - no (Napoli)
Mets - no (LoDuca)
Detroit - no (Pudge)
Mariners - no (Jojima or Clement)
Giants - probably not
White Sox- no (have Pierzynski signed at a good rate for 2008)

What team is gonna give Posada 13-15 as you are saying he will get?

[OldYankeeFan]

Don't forget, we will most likely be saving a good chunk of Joe's 7.5 mil salary.

[YankeePride1967]

Of all the catchers in the history of mlb which ones have performed at a high level at the age of 37?


As another poster stated, 2 yrs 20 million with the second year being a mutual option. Otherwise let him walk. Posada will see that there aren't a lot of opportunities out there for a 37 year old catcher who wants big money. I don't think I can name any teams that would want him at his price.

Yankees - yes
Boston - no (varitek)
Dodgers - no (Martin)
Angels - no (Napoli)
Mets - no (LoDuca)
Detroit - no (Pudge)
Mariners - no (Jojima or Clement)
Giants - probably not
White Sox- no (have Pierzynski signed at a good rate for 2008)

as you can see I deleted my post.

[ppa79]

as you can see I deleted my post.

oh ok