The Postseason Odds Thread

[SubwayFanatic]

Still a long ways to go, but that does not mean we can't start thinking about the playoffs.

With a little help from Baseball Prospectus, let's look at and discuss the chances of teams making the playoffs.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php

[Jilali]

Lloyd: The least you could do is level with me. What are my chances?

Mary: Not good.

Lloyd: You mean like one out of a hundred?

Mary: More like one out of a million.

Lloyd: So you're tellin' me there's a chance.

[26 and counting]

We're at 14.6%. Look at the bright side: That's almost 15%!!!

What's funny is that the Blue Jays are ahead of us, but they only have a 2% chance. BP must be going by pythagorean wins. It kind of makes sense, because the the Yankees have a much better run differential.

[TheYankee]

We're at 14.6%. Look at the bright side: That's almost 15%!!!

What's funny is that the Blue Jays are ahead of us, but they only have a 2% chance. BP must be going by pythagorean wins. It kind of makes sense, because the the Yankees have a much better run differential.

I would assume so... at least to a large extent... they have to be projecting where they are going to be at the end of the year, so that would be the most effective way I can think of.

[umpsrconferring]

We're at 14.6%. Look at the bright side: That's almost 15%!!!

What's funny is that the Blue Jays are ahead of us, but they only have a 2% chance. BP must be going by pythagorean wins. It kind of makes sense, because the the Yankees have a much better run differential.

They base it on the projected performance of the teams' line-ups. So if the Yankees traded Ian Kennedy for Mark Texeira today, their % would go up. If Posada got hurt, it would go down, if Nieves got hurt it would go up, and so forth.

[TheYankee]

if Nieves got hurt it would go up...

[ZYanksRule]

They just figure out how many games we've played and what the percentage is.

That site is worthless.

[Mr. Mxylsplk]

They just figure out how many games we've played and what the percentage is.

That's not what they did at all.

[TheYankee]

They just figure out how many games we've played and what the percentage is.

That site is worthless.

How do you figure that? Or are you just making stuff up? I'll go with making stuff up...

[goin for 27]

They just figure out how many games we've played and what the percentage is.

That site is worthless.

Exactly. Kind of like the standings, such BS...

[PPlantier]

They just figure out how many games we've played and what the percentage is.

That site is worthless.

Pretty sure the odds would be 0% versus 11% if that were the case.

[TheYankee]

Pretty sure the odds would be 0% versus 11% if that were the case.

LOL. Good point. Why didn't I think of that?