Mid-Season Top Ten Yankee Minor League Prospects

[Hughes2.50]

By looking at the responses to the thread starter in early July anyone can see that my top five list on the first post was criticized for including Jackson primarily. I mentioned that Baseball America would come around eventually on how they would evaluate Jackson and Horne too.

The following post mentioning Jim Callis' comments in a chat verify that adjustment in how Baseball America evaluates the Yankees prospects (here we are referring to Jackson and Horne) pretty much the same way I did back in early July.

http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.p...&postcount=155

[MattUNC2003]

By looking at the responses to the thread starter in early July anyone can see that my top five list on the first post was criticized for including Jackson primarily. I mentioned that Baseball America would come around eventually on how they would evaluate Jackson and Horne too.
The following post mentioning Jim Callis' comments in a chat verify that adjustment in how Baseball America evaluates the Yankees prospects (here we are referring to Jackson and Horne) pretty much the same way I did back in early July.http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.p...&postcount=155

While I rarely agree with your reliance on statistics and mathematics when determining baseball talent.....

Welcome back from your hibernation. Your contributions have been missed.

[budstinks]

I tell you what, with what joba and Ian have done, his stats and math were conservative looking now. Hughes has fought back from injury so will have to see if he corrects towards the better.

Small samples, but some probably ought to be eating some crow.

All that said, even I thought the models were generous to say the least and I probably defended Hughes as much as anyone.

[jesterno2]

Here is an addendum, my Mid-Season Yankee Prospects Ranked 11-20.Below are Yankee prospects 11-20. Remembering that no one who has played in the majors is included, and, no 2007 draftees or IFA signees are included.

11) Humberto Sanchez, 6-6 245 (RHP). If not for Tommy John Surgery, Sanchez would be in the top five of this list. The Yankees know that Sanchez projects as a front-of-the-rotation starter when healthy and are excited about what he will be able to bring to the table, particularly in 2009 and beyond. Sanchez will be able to pitch in 2008, but as is true with TJ surgery, don't expect him to hit his stride until two years after the surgery was done (so expect strong resuilts in 2009). By then the Yankees may be in a position to let him challenge for a starting job in New York. (ETA 2009)

12) Jesus Montero 6-4 230 (C/1st basemen). Yet to play in rookie ball, Monetero rates this highly because of his awesome power potential at the plate (80 on the scouts scale). The Yankees have worked hard with Montero to get him to hit to all fields, and, to further refine his tools behind the plate. If Montero is able to progress as a backstop for the Yankees, he will progress rapidly within the Yankees minor league system. And if not, his bat will carry him to the majors not too far into the future. (ETA 2010)

13) David Robertson 5-11 175 (RHP). Robertson has been absolutely dominant as a reliever in low A and A+. Robertson profiles as a potential elite setup man or top closer in the majors. (ETA 2009)

14) George Kontos 6-3 215, the 22 year old Kontos has shown in his stay within the Yankee organization that he has the potential to be mid to back of the rotation starter in mlb (ETA 2009)

14) Carlos Urena, 6-2 180 (CF). Urena is an amazingly gifted centerfielder with decent speed and a great feel for the position. He is also a player who can hit for power, and, if he can learn discipline at the plate for average as well. Urena is far away from being a contributor to the Yankees as his plate discipline is clearly in need of a lot of work.

15) Pyrilis Cuello, 5-11 170 (2nd base) Cuello is an extremely gifted overall player at 18 years old. He can hit for power, and although he is not hitting for average yet in the GCL he is likely to finish with a decent average there as well. Cuello can steal bases and plays a solid second base. Expect him to progress rapidly through the Yankees system. (ETA 2010)

16) Eric Duncan, 6-0 210 (1st base). Duncan is still relatively young (22), yet, he hasn't really put it together to the extent that would justify a promotion to the majors. Duncan might benefit by a change of scenery. (ETA 2009)

17) Juan Miranda, 6-1 190 (1st base). Another firstbaseman, Miranda is a polished hitter who may be able to help the big club as a solid hitting firstbaseman. (ETA 2008). He rates this highly as he is close to major league ready.

18) Franciso Cervelli, 6-0 205 (C). Cervelli is an athletic 21 yr old catcher with an average arm. He has made progress at the plate, but he hasn't shown a superior ability to drive the baseball and the projection for his development of power is in question. With the ability to be a plus defender behind the plate, and an average hitter from behind the plate, right now Cervelli is stuck being a prospect who needs to show more before he can be assumed to be a future starter in major league baseball. (ETA 2010).

19) Marcos Vechionacci, 6-1 190 (3rd base). Vechionacci is a slick fielding, light hitting third baseman. His progress, much like Cervelli's awaits an inkling that he can hit for power, something that hasn't happened yet. (ETA 2011)

20) Jeff Marquez, 6-0 210 (RHP) The soon to be 23 year old Marquez has reached the point where it is clear that he has not only the ability, but now too the polish to be a major league starting pitcher. It appears that the best projection for him is as 4/5th starter for a good team. (ETA 2008)

i havent seen your top 10 but depending on if garcia, melancon and cox are included i might not agree with your position for sanchez. i believe he should be rated above all 3 of those guys and in that case should be higher than 11.

i think you have the eta for montero way too early, the kid is only 17 (not even graduated hs yet!!!) and the yanks havent been rushing kids until they are sure they are ready since the duncan debacle now that we have a deep and stacked farm. should be interesting to see if he stays at c and how he does with romine and weems at the same position and similar level.

robertson doesn't project to be an elite setup guy or closer unless he gets his velocity back, and even if he gets that back he might not be more than just a really solid middle relief but he should be a pretty safe bet to be a 7th inning guy with guys like cox, whelan, marquez and ohlendorf in the mix for that same spot.

cervelli probably should be ahead of duncan and miranda as an above average defensive catcher that should hit for a high average whereas duncan still hasnt put it together and both him and miranda should end up at dh because of terrible defense.

nacci could even be rated higher than duncan and miranda because of age. he is a light hitting 3b now but he could still fill out some more and gain more power, he has pretty good plate discipline, and his gold glove defense means he should get to the majors even as a utility guy (ala alberto gonzalez).

marquez needs to be much higher than 20 seeing as he was right on the fringe of the top 10 at the start of this year and we have since graduated hughes, joba and kennedy. i dont think there are 10-15 guys who have increased their stock to surpass jeff and given what he helped trenton do in the playoffs he should still be up there. he will be starting in AAA, close to the majors, and while i agree that he might eventually just be a strong middle relief jeff nelson type he has shown that he can pitch well in big games and he still has some of the best stuff/highest ceilings on the farm.

[Matsui55]

A little different list, with rationales (I am not including Hughes, because except for rehabs, he isn't going to spend any more time in the minors). I also do not rate rookies, as short season does not give an accurate picture of the player- wait till they reach full-season ball, where they must grind it out daily.

1) Chamberlain- at least a #2, if he can stay healthy
2) Tabata- at 18, the power comes later- right now, showing the bat is for real
3) Kennedy- gets knocked for not having a blazing FB- but sometimes knowing where to pitch and how to mix up pitches is better than how fast the ball gets there
4) Jackson- the sky is the limit here, but he needs a LOT of upper level (AA and AAA) AB's to fully develop- there is no rush here with Gardner in front of him- ETA- 2010
5) Clippard- so long as he takes his AAA lessons seriously, I see no reason why he should not be a strong competitor to be the #5 starter in NY next year
6) Horne- is finally showing why he was a first round pick out of HS- he is the real deal. He will pitch in NY- but is he a starter or reliever?
7) Gardner- can run like the wind, but has VERY little pop in his bat. The track record for slap hitters isn't that good- but he deserves at least a chance. ETA- end of 2008- extended trial then and early 2009 to see if he can hit
8) Betances- has the arm, but needs a TON of IP and time. NY pitchers just don't throw as much as Southern kids do- will be brought along slowly to baby the arm- ETA 2010- cup of coffee- 2011 for good.
9) Sanchez- starting days are likely over- but he should be placed in the NY bullpen to apprentice with Mo for a year, and eventually be his successor- power sinker and slider should be a good power reliever. With the TJ surgery, may not see him at full strength until 2009- but he has remarkable numbers in 2005 with an arm that likely already required TJ surgery- indicates he may be able to be useful in 2008 despite not being at full strength
10) Cox- in a close call, I give him the nod- he will likely be part of the 2008 pen as well- has elbow surgery, but not TJ- does that mean he doesn't need the 2 years to fully recover his stuff? I don't know. Regardless, he has a good future before him

11) Christian Garcia- another TJ casualty- but assuming that the surgery restores him to full strength (and the track record gets better every year), few in the system match his raw stuff. 2008 may be no more than a strength building year- likely in Tampa, with 2009 being the big year. However, because he didn't build up a lot of IP before the injury, he may be headed to the pen as well
12) Cervelli- nice to see a C who can hit and apparently is a decent defensive C as well. However, the road to being a ML C is long- as the prospect must learn not only to survive the 162 game grind, but be ready for the post-season at the end. He will be a level-to-level guy, playing and playing his way into a full time role. ETA- 2010, possibly with a mentor splitting time, then 2011 as a regular, if he continues the present progress rate
13) Miranda- is finally getting comfortable- the adjustment for Cuban players is much greater than that for other Latin players. Once the cultural and other barriers are cleared, his bat should get him to NY. However, appears to be limited to 1B or DH- will he hit enough at the bigs to hold these spots? I am not sure yet- come back next year.
14) Melacon- as a major college power reliever, he will move fast. Since he is another TJ alum, 2008 should be at high A Tampa building strength, with 2009 at Trenton and then see what they have. SHould at least be a power set-up man
15) Vechionacci- has GREAT defensive ability- it is only the bat holding him back. Will not turn 21 until August, and is finally showing signs that he will hit. Next year will be the big test- at Trenton- if he can hit at AA, 3B will be his.
16) McCutchen- due to the 50 game suspension, has fallen a bit behind the other arms- but should be in AA before the end of the year. May be a very deep sleeper, as he has always been highly though of- this season is really his big test- will be in Trenton in 2008, and will likely get noticed nationally then
17) Kontos- has a power arm, but needs to build IP. Will be part of another powerful Trenton rotation in 2008- will that group be as successful as the 2007 class?
18) McCallister- has stuff, though not in Betances class. He will be moved slowly as well- maybe tracking together with Betances. Needs a big year in 2008.
19) Robertson- just completely dominated low A ball- now in high A ball. Will he be another college closer who runs through the minors, or does he need more refinement. 2008's test in Trenton should be interesting.
20) Marquez- I have never really bought all in on him- his stuff should produce more results than he has to date, even with the gaudy AA numbers this year. He may need to repeat or improve in AAA next year to gain more attention and consideration.

21-30)
A lot of relievers and role guys here. To close to really rank, so I will just list a lot of names here:

Hilligoss
Whelan
Brett Smith
Wordekemper (watch him- he is versatile and throws in the 90's- may be able to contribute as a middle reliever in the bigs)
Kyle Anson (appears to be developing as a very good defensive C, who can hit a bit- still early in the transition- at 24, might not have much time to prove himself- watch him in 2008 and 2009)
Ohlendorf- raw stuff is good, but may not be a starter
Eric Duncan- has all the tools, but will it ever come together? Yanks may need 2008 to see him in AAA again before making their decision
Claggett- has the pitches, but control is an issue
Ferdie Tejada- converted pitcher has had TJ surgery; this year is arm strength building season- before surgery threw easily in the high 90's with a developing slider- if he can regain his stuff, 2008 could be an interesting year
Alberto Gonzalez- supposed to be a great defensive SS- haven't seen it this year- but if he can recover defensively, could be a nice middle INF sub, or trade throw-in

I put together this list in early July.

Offhand, I overrated Clippard- he probably doesn't crack the top 25 now.

I underrated McCutchen badly too- he might be top 10, maybe top 6.

Gardner is overrated- maybe around 13-15- speed is great, but Otis Nixon comparisons aren't going to be good enough to hold a job in NY- the Yanks didn't keep Otis either when they had him.

I might bump Ohlendorf up because of his potential as a power reliever in 2008- maybe 15.

As for those that want to give Marquez a big boost- I don't think so. Sure he won a lot of games with a good ERA. However, he is a guy with a power stuff and a good sinker, but has two major problems. One- not enough GB for a guy with his stuff. Two- has a tendancy not to get deep enough in games. He is also somewhat inconsistent start to start. I would think that the Yanks should just give him a DVD of Wang's starts to study all winter, and ask him to come back with his pitching style modeled on Wang.

The rest, I think once you account for the above moves, they are about right.

[Hughes2.50]

i havent seen your top 10 but depending on if garcia, melancon and cox are included i might not agree with your position for sanchez. i believe he should be rated above all 3 of those guys and in that case should be higher than 11.

i think you have the eta for montero way too early, the kid is only 17 (not even graduated hs yet!!!) and the yanks havent been rushing kids until they are sure they are ready since the duncan debacle now that we have a deep and stacked farm. should be interesting to see if he stays at c and how he does with romine and weems at the same position and similar level.

robertson doesn't project to be an elite setup guy or closer unless he gets his velocity back, and even if he gets that back he might not be more than just a really solid middle relief but he should be a pretty safe bet to be a 7th inning guy with guys like cox, whelan, marquez and ohlendorf in the mix for that same spot.

cervelli probably should be ahead of duncan and miranda as an above average defensive catcher that should hit for a high average whereas duncan still hasnt put it together and both him and miranda should end up at dh because of terrible defense.

nacci could even be rated higher than duncan and miranda because of age. he is a light hitting 3b now but he could still fill out some more and gain more power, he has pretty good plate discipline, and his gold glove defense means he should get to the majors even as a utility guy (ala alberto gonzalez).

marquez needs to be much higher than 20 seeing as he was right on the fringe of the top 10 at the start of this year and we have since graduated hughes, joba and kennedy. i dont think there are 10-15 guys who have increased their stock to surpass jeff and given what he helped trenton do in the playoffs he should still be up there. he will be starting in AAA, close to the majors, and while i agree that he might eventually just be a strong middle relief jeff nelson type he has shown that he can pitch well in big games and he still has some of the best stuff/highest ceilings on the farm.

Garcia, Melancon and Cox were not included. My top ten is the first post on the first page of this thread. When I do my next top twenty list, it will include new signees from 2007 both from the draft and the IFA group.

Marquez is not a high level prospect and his age is working against him. I agree that he does have major league ability, but his ceiling is probably as a 4/5 on an average team. He is someone who is likely to be part of a trade to bring either bullpen help, or help elsewhere. Marquez has too many quality starting pitchers already as advanced or not far behind him, and I doubt he would climb any higher than I have him on most prospect lists, and surely not on mine.

Sanchez is still a question mark, although not as much as he was in July when I did the rankings. He will almost certainly be rated higher than 11 next time.

[Buzah!]

I think Marquez is gonna be the new Ramiro Mendoza.

[Hughes2.50]

I think Marquez is gonna be the new Ramiro Mendoza.

That might be an excellent opportunity if he can show something in spring training. He might be gone by then, though.

[indianyanksfan]

That might be an excellent opportunity if he can show something in spring training. He might be gone by then, though.

where would he go?

[Hughes2.50]

where would he go?

Trade-bait.

[BomberBrian]

Why is the fact that Marquez is 23 years old working against him?

[Hughes2.50]

Why is the fact that Marquez is 23 years old working against him?

Because as a guy who right now probably settles in as a #4/5 slot type pitcher on a typical roster, one would be interested in seeing where he might be in 4-5 years. Unfortunately, unlike a Hughes who in four years might have kept improving for 4 years it is less likely that a 26 or 27 year old pitcher will have quite as much room for growth (physically, maturity-wise, pitching-wise, etc.) Quite simply, unless Marquez shows A. Horne type improvement fast it looks like he is settling in as a back of the rotation starter at best.

[BaylorBearYankeeFan]

Because as a guy who right now probably settles in as a #4/5 slot type pitcher on a typical roster, one would be interested in seeing where he might be in 4-5 years. Unfortunately, unlike a Hughes who in four years might have kept improving for 4 years it is less likely that a 26 or 27 year old pitcher will have quite as much room for growth (physically, maturity-wise, pitching-wise, etc.) Quite simply, unless Marquez shows A. Horne type improvement fast it looks like he is settling in as a back of the rotation starter at best.

Or perhaps as a decent long man out of the pen? I think with the plethora of starting pitching, having a guy, or two, who can come out of the pen in long relief would be best...he could be a good addition to the pen, maybe not this next year but in 09?