With the promotion to AA of Ian Kennedy, first round pick of the Yankees in 2006, and the continued brilliance of Joba Chamberlain in A+ ball, how long will it be before these two polished ex-college All America pitchers get into a Yankees uniform.
Using my MDERA statistic to evaluate how well they are pitching in the minors this year, we find that Kennedy is posting a 103 while Chamberlain a 135 MDERA for 2007 so far.
That is, like Pecota's PERA statistic, my MDERA is designed to estimate a major league equivalent performance for minor league pitchers. MDERA is cast to reflect a standardized major league average ERA of 4.50 (Just as Pecota's PERA does as well). And, MDERA is presented in the familiar ERA+ format which allows for simple statistical comparisons between pitchers.
Therefore, a 103 MDERA represents a slightly above average major league equivalent performance, while a 136 would be significantly better. Looking more closely at the numbers, the biggest difference between Kennedy and Chamberlain is that Kennedy has allowed two dingers, while Chamberlain none.
Since both Kennedy and Chamberlain are experienced pitchers from big programs, who have logged considerable innings over the last several years in college (making a ramp up in their innings somewhat inconsequential to Yankee development concerns), when do you think that one or the other will be promoted to pitch in New York?