Kennedy and Chamberlain, when will they be in the Bronx?

[Hughes2.50]

With the promotion to AA of Ian Kennedy, first round pick of the Yankees in 2006, and the continued brilliance of Joba Chamberlain in A+ ball, how long will it be before these two polished ex-college All America pitchers get into a Yankees uniform.

Using my MDERA statistic to evaluate how well they are pitching in the minors this year, we find that Kennedy is posting a 103 while Chamberlain a 135 MDERA for 2007 so far.

That is, like Pecota's PERA statistic, my MDERA is designed to estimate a major league equivalent performance for minor league pitchers. MDERA is cast to reflect a standardized major league average ERA of 4.50 (Just as Pecota's PERA does as well). And, MDERA is presented in the familiar ERA+ format which allows for simple statistical comparisons between pitchers.

Therefore, a 103 MDERA represents a slightly above average major league equivalent performance, while a 136 would be significantly better. Looking more closely at the numbers, the biggest difference between Kennedy and Chamberlain is that Kennedy has allowed two dingers, while Chamberlain none.

Since both Kennedy and Chamberlain are experienced pitchers from big programs, who have logged considerable innings over the last several years in college (making a ramp up in their innings somewhat inconsequential to Yankee development concerns), when do you think that one or the other will be promoted to pitch in New York?

[Yankees1962]

Hard to predict due to so many different factors, but we won't see Kennedy until at next year some time. Chamberlain could possibly be next year, but more likely the year after. Then again, maybe one of them is gone next month which is another unknown factor, who will be part of trades which could affect their future as ML Yankees.

[YankeePride1967]

I saw Kennedy live here in Florida a few weeks ago when Tampa came to Jupiter and he looked great. I'm going to see Chamberlain this week when they come back to play the Cardinals here. He is alligned to pitch Thursday.

[b_joseph]

I'll be very surprised if both guys arent very likely contenders to be in the rotation to start 2009.

[mbn007]

Hard to predict due to so many different factors, but we won't see Kennedy until at next year some time. Chamberlain could possibly be next year, but more likely the year after. Then again, maybe one of them is gone next month which is another unknown factor, who will be part of trades which could affect their future as ML Yankees.

I see Kennedy as one of the guys who may get some starts in teh Bronx in 2008 if there are injury concerns, like this year. In addition, he would also have to be pitching well for AA or AAA, depending where he is at the time.

Joba, I doubt he gets anywhere near the Bronx in 2008. But I bet he challenges for a rotation spot in ST of 2009.

Remember, after 2008, the rotation will be cleaned up from everyone currently in there, except for Wang. So guys like Hughes, Clippard, Kennedy, Joba, Igawa, et al, will all be fighting for spots. There should be no Petitte's, Mussina's, Clemens, Pavano's. et al, in the way.

[MinorFan]

.....

[Bob420]

Somebody will be in the way. There is no way the Yankees go into 2009 with Wang, Hughes and then 3 of the rest.

[Big Game Andy]

In 2009 there will be some big changes in Yankee land. Our pitching staff, the Old Man Faction, of Mussina Clemens and Pettitte will all finally be gone. We've had rotation or some variation of it for close to 10 years, and it'll finally be over and we can finally turn the page and integrate some youngsters into the starting rotation. It's definitely exciting. We'll have to deal with one more year of a substandard, old, patchwork rotation and then we can finally turn the page on the late 1990s dynasty years and start a new dynasty that's centered around good, young, cost effective starting pitching.

[In Mo I Trust]

Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy, Johan, make it happen in 2009.

[ppa79]

Sometime next year

[MTYankee23]

How are we expected to acquire Johan Santana without giving up Hughes, Kennedy, OR Chamberlain?

Something tells me that Marquez, Clippard, and Betances isn't going to get it done.

[metalboy15]

How are we expected to acquire Johan Santana without giving up Hughes, Kennedy, OR Chamberlain?

Something tells me that Marquez, Clippard, and Betances isn't going to get it done.

He´s a FA after the 08 season.

[BringBackRandolph]

Hard to predict due to so many different factors, but we won't see Kennedy until at next year some time. Chamberlain could possibly be next year, but more likely the year after. Then again, maybe one of them is gone next month which is another unknown factor, who will be part of trades which could affect their future as ML Yankees.

Neither guy can be traded until after at least 1 year after they signed. The only way to get around something like that is what Oakland and Detroit did with regards to Bonderman and that was having it agreed on that he would be the player to be named.

[MTYankee23]

He´s a FA after the 08 season.

Was a response to whoever wrote that it would happen next year (unless they meant the '08 offseason). Unless Minnesota is contending at the deadline next year, I'm guessing you'll see some sort of trade and extend with Santana.

[gdn]

September.

[Buzah!]

2008, knock wood. I expect both to do well in AA this summer.

[GrouchoNYY]

The thing that is the X-Factor here is the new Yankee Stadium, due to open in 2009. I seriously doubt that the Yankees will go into a new park without a a team primed to win it all. An all young homegrown staff may be nice but there will be the pull to get a horse. If Santana is available as a free agent, that's a possibility. If not, a trade for a supposed stud starter (and maybe a closer) is likely. Only if the young guys light it up in 2008 will there be a possibility of an all young staff in 2009.

Hitting is another story. Other than Tabata, there is noboby evident for 2009(maybe Cervelli). Free agency may be easier here but don't discount trading pitching for young proven power.

[Yanks21]

September.

Agreed. I think both have a shot to be September call-ups...

[Gator's Shadow]

I seriously doubt that the Yankees will go into a new park without a a team primed to win it all.

I'm not sure there is a connection between the two. The new statdium will have its luxury boxes sold out and will do tremendous season ticket sales in any event. It would take several years of bad Yankee teams for the attendance and fan interest to drop enough to hit ownership in the pocketbook.

[wang+cano=future]

It seems that both are on the track of finishing the year at AA (unless they completly dominate AA). Hughes dominated A+ and was moved up to AA around the same time last year, where he finished the season. It would be awesome if they both have the same success that Hughes had at AA but it seems unlikely because Hughes is soooo nasty. I could see them finish AA this year and start in AAA next year with call-ups based on needs of the team or performance during the 2009 season.

[mbn007]

The thing that is the X-Factor here is the new Yankee Stadium, due to open in 2009. I seriously doubt that the Yankees will go into a new park without a a team primed to win it all. An all young homegrown staff may be nice but there will be the pull to get a horse. If Santana is available as a free agent, that's a possibility. If not, a trade for a supposed stud starter (and maybe a closer) is likely. Only if the young guys light it up in 2008 will there be a possibility of an all young staff in 2009.

Wang will be heading into his 5th season at that time, and hopefully Hughes his 3rd, and 2nd full. It's not like they will all be the 2006 Florida Marlins pitching staff.

[Stealthspy]

It seems that both are on the track of finishing the year at AA (unless they completly dominate AA). Hughes dominated A+ and was moved up to AA around the same time last year, where he finished the season. It would be awesome if they both have the same success that Hughes had at AA but it seems unlikely because Hughes is soooo nasty. I could see them finish AA this year and start in AAA next year with call-ups based on needs of the team or performance during the 2009 season.

Well Hughes was a prospect in his teens coming out of High School. As previously mentioned, these are two college pitchers, coming out of good programs which makes them more polished and have more innings under their arms. They could have the same success, and I almost expect them to put up good numbers. That said, I'm thinking that unles they absolutely dominate, they are going to stay in AA, with a call up to the ML being a real slim possibility. Either way they're both getting a minimum of 2 months down in trenton.

[Stealthspy]

The thing that is the X-Factor here is the new Yankee Stadium, due to open in 2009. I seriously doubt that the Yankees will go into a new park without a a team primed to win it all. An all young homegrown staff may be nice but there will be the pull to get a horse. If Santana is available as a free agent, that's a possibility. If not, a trade for a supposed stud starter (and maybe a closer) is likely. Only if the young guys light it up in 2008 will there be a possibility of an all young staff in 2009.

Hitting is another story. Other than Tabata, there is noboby evident for 2009(maybe Cervelli). Free agency may be easier here but don't discount trading pitching for young proven power.

The other X-Factor, in my opinion, is the 2007 season. If we don't finish well then Cashman may be gone. And judging by George and the visible success of Cashman's plan (so far) in the 2007 team, I wouldn't be surprised if the next GM burns the farm.

And this is why I really, really hope this team does well.

[GoRasner]

Probably late 2008, early 2009. Kennedy could get a start late this year if he's lucky.

[Yankees1962]

Neither guy can be traded until after at least 1 year after they signed. The only way to get around something like that is what Oakland and Detroit did with regards to Bonderman and that was having it agreed on that he would be the player to be named.

Yes I know, since, both signed late this might save them this trading season.

[yank4life2005]

I think we might see one of them traded in a package for Texeira.

Don't WANT to see it happen but I think it will.

[Hughes2.50]

I think we might see one of them traded in a package for Texeira.

Don't WANT to see it happen but I think it will.

If it does happen, which one would you protect from the trade and which one would you be willling to use as a trade chip?

[ppa79]

If it does happen, which one would you protect from the trade and which one would you be willling to use as a trade chip?

I think that is a pretty simple answer.

[Yankees1962]

I think we might see one of them traded in a package for Texeira.

Don't WANT to see it happen but I think it will.

I don't see Cashman making a trade for Tex because of two reasons. First off, he would have to give up a lot for him and secondly, he will still test the free agent market and I don't see Cashman paying a high price for a rental player.

[yank4life2005]

If it does happen, which one would you protect from the trade and which one would you be willling to use as a trade chip?

I would hold onto Chamberlain for dear life.

Kennedy could be a nice chip to trade.

[yank4life2005]

I don't see Cashman making a trade for Tex because of two reasons. First off, he would have to give up a lot for him and secondly, he will still test the free agent market and I don't see Cashman paying a high price for a rental player.

Tex isn't a FA until after the 2008 season.

[BennyTheJetRodriguez]

08 at some point. 07 is a slim slim possibility, I honestly don't think 09 is.

[yankeetke]

Most likely 2008 unless we continue to tank the season and decide we want to see how some of our young pitchers do in the majors but there are some people ahead of them like Alan Horne and a crowded 40 man roster that also hurts them. So I think we see them sometime in 2008 as injury replacements like Hughes, Clippard, Wright and Desalvo.

[stupidpunchline]

Why waste one of their option years on 2007?

[Hughes2.50]

How are we expected to acquire Johan Santana without giving up Hughes, Kennedy, OR Chamberlain?

Something tells me that Marquez, Clippard, and Betances isn't going to get it done.

I think your options should read, Marquez, Clippard, and Kennedy, instead of Hughes, Betances, OR Chamberlain.

[JeffWeaverFan]

If both dominate AA, they can both start next season in AAA and get a callup sometime next year.

[WeekendWarrior]

Is Joba going today for Tampa?

[YASS]

Is Joba going today for Tampa?

AFAIK, his turn is tomorrow in Jupiter vs. the Cards.

[yankeezombie]

The other X-Factor, in my opinion, is the 2007 season. If we don't finish well then Cashman may be gone. And judging by George and the visible success of Cashman's plan (so far) in the 2007 team, I wouldn't be surprised if the next GM burns the farm.

And this is why I really, really hope this team does well.

That's my biggest worry about this year. We've seen that before so PLEASE not again.

[ppa79]

I think your options should read, Marquez, Clippard, and Kennedy, instead of Hughes, Betances, OR Chamberlain.

I agree. Hughes, Betances, and Chamberlain are off limits.

[MTYankee23]

I agree. Hughes, Betances, and Chamberlain are off limits.

I tend to agree as well (even though I'm the original quotee), Betances would just be the least off limits of the untouchables, if that makes any sense. Personally, I'd rather keep those 3 even if it means no deal gets done.

[NY_GOLDENARMS]

I tend to agree as well (even though I'm the original quotee), Betances would just be the least off limits of the untouchables, if that makes any sense. Personally, I'd rather keep those 3 even if it means no deal gets done.

I kinda like that, it has certain intimidating ring to it:

HUGHES, CHAMBERLIN and BETANCES - THE UNTOUCHABLES

Ivan Nova coming soon to a ballpark near you.

[primetime714]

Kennedy is essentially Clippard one year ago. Next year Kennedy is among the first couple guys that are brought up if one of our starters gets hurt or struggles.

Joba seems like a guy that we won't call up until septemeber of next year. However he could find himself in a similar position to Hughes and get a callup as early as mid season of next year. If he continues to dominate as he moves up the system he could jump ahead of schedule and possibly get himself ahead of Kennedy who right now is more polished but lower ceiling player.

One guy who could stand in their way is Humberto Sanchez depending upon how his rehab from TJ surgery progresses. By my estimates Sanchez's injury set him back about a year and half. With all the injuries we've had this is a guy that would've been up already had he been healthy. Now he's probably looking at having to compete with guys like Kennedy and Chamberlain for injury call up spots next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees play it safe with Sanchez and push him back to september callup next year with a shot at an 09' rotation or bullpen spot.

Of the 3 I think Kennedy is the first called up and will almost definitely be up sometime next year.

[DontHateOnNumber2]

I can't imagine Joba contending for a spot anytime before 2009, but Kennedy will probably be a September call up next year. Barring injuries of course.

[Hughes2.50]

I can't imagine Joba contending for a spot anytime before 2009, but Kennedy will probably be a September call up next year. Barring injuries of course.

With Joba Chamberlain's MDERA currently 153 and Ian Kennedy currently south of 100, that would be a travesty of justice, and recipe for failure. Joba Chamberlain, notwithstanding Kennedy's promotion, is significantly more effective pitching this year than is Kennedy.

And, that was so before Kennedy's last game.

[Hughes2.50]

Kennedy is essentially Clippard one year ago. Next year Kennedy is among the first couple guys that are brought up if one of our starters gets hurt or struggles.

Joba seems like a guy that we won't call up until septemeber of next year. However he could find himself in a similar position to Hughes and get a callup as early as mid season of next year. If he continues to dominate as he moves up the system he could jump ahead of schedule and possibly get himself ahead of Kennedy who right now is more polished but lower ceiling player.

One guy who could stand in their way is Humberto Sanchez depending upon how his rehab from TJ surgery progresses. By my estimates Sanchez's injury set him back about a year and half. With all the injuries we've had this is a guy that would've been up already had he been healthy. Now he's probably looking at having to compete with guys like Kennedy and Chamberlain for injury call up spots next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees play it safe with Sanchez and push him back to september callup next year with a shot at an 09' rotation or bullpen spot.

Of the 3 I think Kennedy is the first called up and will almost definitely be up sometime next year.

Humberto Sanchez won't be pitching until after July 1st next year. My guess is that the Yankees will try to get him innings in Winter Ball 2008/09, and will begin to build his arm strength in 2009. Don't expect to see Sanchez in the majors until mid 2009 at the earliest.

Interestingly, if Andrew Brackman needs TJ surgery, I hope it gets done soon so that he would be able to pitch in fall ball 08/09 too.

[dont_ya_know24]

Hughes
Chamberlain
Wang
Kennedy
Betances









nice...

[Hughes2.50]

Hughes
Chamberlain
Wang
Kennedy
Betances

nice...

Presumably the above refers to the 2009 Yankee rotation. Based on what I know now, I'd be very dissapointed to find out that Alan Horne was passed over for Ian Kennedy for the 2009 Yankee rotation.

[flymick24]

i think both horne and kennedy are trade bait (unfortunately)

[Buzah!]

Lot of shaking out to do over the next few years.