AFC Playoff Watch: 2006

[RIyankee]

AFC East:
Team Rec/AFC/DIV ~ ~ ~ Remaining Games
NE 10-4/ 6-4/ 4-2 ~ ~ ~ @JAX, @TEN
NYJ 8-6/ 5-5/ 3-2 ~ ~ ~ @MIA, OAK

AFC North:
Team Rec/AFC/DIV ~ ~ ~ Remaining Games
BAL 11-3/ 8-2/ 4-1 ~ ~ ~ @PIT, BUF
CIN 8-6/ 6-4/ 4-1 ~ ~ ~ @DEN, PIT

AFC South:
Team Rec/AFC/DIV ~ ~ ~ Remaining Games
IND 11-3/ 8-2/ 3-2 ~ ~ ~ @HOU, MIA ***Clinched AFC South***
JAX 8-6/ 5-5/ 2-4 ~ ~ ~ NE, @KC

AFC West:
Team Rec/AFC/DIV ~ ~ ~ Remaining Games
SD 12-2/ 10-2/ 5-1 ~ ~ ~ @SEA, ARZ
DEN 8-6/ 7-4/ 3-3 ~ ~ ~ CIN, SF

The 7-7 group:
Team Rec/AFC/DIV ~ ~ ~ Remaining Games
BUF 7-7/ 5-5/ 3-3 ~ ~ ~ TEN, @BAL
PIT 7-7/ 4-6/ 2-2 ~ ~ ~ BAL, @CIN
TEN 7-7/ 4-6/ 4-2 ~ ~ ~ @BUF, NE
KC 7-7/ 3-7/ 3-2 ~ ~ ~ @OAK, JAX

[gdn]

Oo, the Steelers have a tough road ahead

[Seth]

Oo, the Steelers have a tough road ahead

I agree. Hopefully, though, they can get payback this week at home against Baltimore.

[JWHIII]

BAL 10-4/ 8-2/ 4-1 ~ ~ ~ @PIT, BUF

Baltimore is 11-3.

[RIyankee]

Baltimore is 11-3.

The evils of copy and paste.

Thanks!

[BroadwayBomber55]

The AFC is a heavy logjam again.

[Pepper03]

Oo, the Steelers have a tough road ahead

It's to their credit they still have a chance.

[gdn]

It's to their credit they still have a chance.

And it's entirely their fault that they haven't secured a spot yet... those losses to Oakland and Atlanta sure are coming to bite them in the rear.

[RIyankee]

It's to their credit they still have a chance.

It's to their discredit that they lost to a team like Oakland, that put them in this "creditable" position.

[gdn]

It's to their discredit that they lost to a team like Oakland, that put them in this "creditable" position.

Hey! Stop copying me

[gamesix1977]

Jets still in it too!

[Pepper03]

And it's entirely their fault that they haven't secured a spot yet... those losses to Oakland and Atlanta sure are coming to bite them in the rear.

Yes but a team with lesser character could have thrown in the towel long ago. That's what I meant.

[gdn]

Yes but a team with lesser character could have thrown in the towel long ago. That's what I meant.

I understand. I truly believe Big Ben ruined their chances this year by coming back too early.

[Pepper03]

I understand. I truly believe Big Ben ruined their chances this year by coming back too early.

I think you may be right.

[RIyankee]

I understand. I truly believe Big Ben ruined their chances this year by coming back too early.

Blame Cowher.

My theory is that Batch did too well vs Miami and Cowher didn't want a QB controversy.

JMHO

[gdn]

Blame Cowher.

My theory is that Batch did too well vs Miami and Cowher didn't want a QB controversy.

JMHO

That's certainly possible too.

[Soriambi]

As I figure it, these are the ways for the Jets to get into the playoffs without having to worry about any tie-breakers:

In all of them, the Jets have to win both games.

-If the NYJ win both games and NE loses both, they get in thanks to the tie-breaker as the division champ. That is unlikely.

As for Wild Card scenarios, the Jets get in as at least a 6 seed (some could be 5th seed with tie-breakers, perhaps) if:

-IND beats CIN tonight, and NE beats JAX next week OR
-IND beats CIN tonight, and KC beats JAX in two weeks OR
-CIN beats DEN next week and NE beats JAX next week OR
-CIN beats DEN next week and KC beats JAX in two weeks OR
-SF beats DEN in two weeks and NE beats JAX next week OR
-SF beats DEN in two weeks and KC beats JAX in two weeks
-DEN and PIT beat CIN and NE beats JAX next week OR
-DEN and PIT beat CIN and KC beats JAX in two weeks.

The Jets would get in as the 5 seed and the only 10-6 Wild Card if:

-IND beats CIN tonight, CIN beats DEN next week, PIT beats CIN in two weeks, and either NE or KC beat JAX OR
-CIN loses two of its three games to IND, DEN, and PIT (this could include a DEN win), DEN loses to SF in two weeks, and NE or KC beat JAX.

So there are still many extremely realistic ways that the Jets can get in without having to worry about tie-breakers. I'm not figuring out tie-breakers now (when they would and wouldn't get in if certain teams finish 10-6, or if a ton of teams are at 9-7, etc.) because that would just give me a bigger headache than that gave me.

[JWHIII]

Jets and Cincy will get in.

[dabomb2045]

It all comes down to next week for the Jets. If we beat Miami....we are getting in. Oakland sucks and they have already mailed in their season. I dont them giving us any problems in that last game. We really need the Colts to win tonight. A Bengals win will make it much harder for us to get in.

Jets will finish 10-6. Assuming Cincy loses tonight, the winner of the Cincy/Denver game next week will get the other spot. If Denver wins, they play SF the last game of the year and will win rather easily. If Cincy wins, I dont see them losing at home to Pittsburgh with a playoff spot on the line either. I see Jacksonville finishing 9-7.

[Soriambi]

It all comes down to next week for the Jets. If we beat Miami....we are getting in. Oakland sucks and they have already mailed in their season. I dont them giving us any problems in that last game. We really need the Colts to win tonight. A Bengals win will make it much harder for us to get in.

Jets will finish 10-6. Assuming Cincy loses tonight, the winner of the Cincy/Denver game next week will get the other spot. If Denver wins, they play SF the last game of the year and will win rather easily. If Cincy wins, I dont see them losing at home to Pittsburgh with a playoff spot on the line either. I see Jacksonville finishing 9-7.

Oh, I'm not writing Oakland off yet against us. I've seen it too many times.

[AMYanks]

My guess right now is Jets and Cincy for the WC.

[TheManKnownAsMecca]

Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. Very slim shot, but it says a lot about the team after starting 2-5. They have only lost 2 games by more than 8 points.

[RIyankee]

Updated the OP.

BTW, Great posts on this and in the NFC thread. If anyone wants to contribute any additional info or corrections, please do. That's what these playoff threads are about.

[dabomb2045]

Oh, I'm not writing Oakland off yet against us. I've seen it too many times.

If we lost to a 2-13 Oakland team, a team that has mailed in their season weeks ago....at home with a playoff spot on the line....it may be the worst loss in the history of the franchise. And thats saying alot.

[RIyankee]

If we lost to a 2-13 Oakland team, a team that has mailed in their season weeks ago....at home with a playoff spot on the line....it may be the worst loss in the history of the franchise. And thats saying alot.

One thing about the Raiders: they have a top 10 secondary. As for the rest, meh.

[BroadwayBomber55]

My take on the AFC playoffs and who should get in...

Denver Broncos - Solid defense, not enough offense. Also, they usually start well early, but fade in the second half. No playoffs for them.

Cincinnati Bengals - Problems on both sides of the ball and off the field distractions. But I say if Carson Palmer is banged up, that means Rudi Johnson has to carry the Bengals into the playoffs. I say the Bengals get in.

Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jags can run the ball. They play well at home. On the road?! No. Very inconsistent. Two tough games for them, not easy for the Jags to win both of them. No playoffs for them.

New York Jets - Easy schedule, Eric Mangini brought disclipine to the Jets. A win against the Miami Dolphins should be enough. Playoffs for the Jets.

Buffalo Bills - If J.P. Losman plays perfect ball against the Titans and Ravens, they can get in. But it's highly unlikely. No playoffs for them.

Tennessee Titans - Vince Young is another feel good story. He should be rookie of the year. But if the Titans defense can't stop anyone, no playoffs for them.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Very tough road ahead for them. They need to be at 9-7 to make the playoffs since they have don't have a good conference record.

Kansas City Chiefs - Second easiest schedule of the remaining AFC teams. But they have no WR. Their offensive line is old and banged up and they have a bad conference record. No playoffs for them.

Miami Dolphins - They need a lot of help. The slow start killed them. If they started Joey Harrington earlier, who knows what could've happen. No playoffs for them.

So, I say the Jets and Bengals get in from the AFC.

[Soriambi]

I've been looking at the tie-breaking rules, and this is how I think it would go if teams are tied:

If the Wild Card tie is at 10-6, the most teams that could be at 10-6 is three. They would be the Jets, the Jaguars, and the Bengals or the Broncos.

If it's the Jets, Jags, and Broncos, the Jags and Broncos would advance. (First, you check whether any of the teams went 2-0 or 0-2 against the other two. None did. Second, you look at their conference winning percentage. They would all need to win the rest of their games to be 10-6, so if that happened, the Broncos would be 8-4 in the Conference, and the Jets and Jags would both be 7-5. Denver advances. Then, by rule, you revert back to step one to break the new tie (Jags and Jets) and step one is head to head, if applicable. It is applicable, and the Jags won, so the Jags would advance.

If it's Jets, Jags, and Bengals, the exact same thing would happen and the Bengals and Jags would advance. Bengals would be 8-4 in the conference while the other two teams would be 7-5, and the Jags would get the tie-breaker over the Jets. Therefore, the only way the Jets can get into the playoffs is by winning their last two games and having two of the other three teams lose at least once (one automatically loses next week since Cinci is playing Denver.)

So, as a Jet fan, I think that I'm rooting for New England to beat Jacksonville and Cincinnati to beat Denver, since I think Pittsburgh has a better chance of beating Cinci in Week 17 than San Fran does of being Denver.

I'm not figuring out all of the possible 9-7 scenarios.

The best possible scenario, even though I'm rooting against it this week:

Jets win out, NE loses to JAX and TEN, JAX wins out, DEN wins out. Four teams end up at 10-6. I believe, if I calculate right, that the Jets would then get the division and the Pats would be the odd team out and miss the playoffs. One can dream.

[AMYanks]

As long as NE beats JAX, the CIN/DEN outcome doesn't matter. Unless of course you're talking about seeding, then I'm not sure what the outcome would mean.

[Soriambi]

As long as NE beats JAX, the CIN/DEN outcome doesn't matter. Unless of course you're talking about seeding, then I'm not sure what the outcome would mean.

Yeah, I guess we'll know by CIN/DEN game time whether that matters. I forgot CIN vs. DEN was a late game. Still, it would give the Jets the best chance at the 5 seed if CIN won, since if CIN beat DEN and lost to PIT (and NE beat JAX), the Jets would be the only team at 10-6.

[dabomb2045]

If the rumors about Palmer's injury are true....the Bengals are done. Jets and Broncos get in.

[Soriambi]

If the rumors about Palmer's injury are true....the Bengals are done. Jets and Broncos get in.

Well, it makes it less likely that they win, but I think they're good enough to win two games without him if some things go right.

[dabomb2045]

Well, it makes it less likely that they win, but I think they're good enough to win two games without him if some things go right.

Do you really see them winning at Mile High with Anthony Wright as their QB?

[Soriambi]

Do you really see them winning at Mile High with Anthony Wright as their QB?

I think they could. It's probably more likely that the Broncos would win, but I think the Bengals would have an excellent chance. The NFL is so crazy that I wouldn't be surprised by a team like the Bengals winning anywhere with any NFL QB. If Houston can beat Jacksonville twice and SF can beat Seattle twice and teams like the Lions can barely lose to the Pats and teams like the Raiders can come within 7 points of beating SD, KC, and Denver, Cinci can certainly beat Denver in less than ideal circumstances without much of a stretch. If I had to pick, I'd pick Denver, but it's up in the air.

[#1PaFan]

I think they could. It's probably more likely that the Broncos would win, but I think the Bengals would have an excellent chance. The NFL is so crazy that I wouldn't be surprised by a team like the Bengals winning anywhere with any NFL QB. If Houston can beat Jacksonville twice and SF can beat Seattle twice and teams like the Lions can barely lose to the Pats and teams like the Raiders can come within 7 points of beating SD, KC, and Denver, Cinci can certainly beat Denver in less than ideal circumstances without much of a stretch. If I had to pick, I'd pick Denver, but it's up in the air.

I'd go with Denver, too. Just because of their D. Their O is coming around, I think, too. They could be tough down the stretch....

[AMYanks]

I really hope Baltimore somehow gets a bye over Indianapolis, but unfortunately, Indy plays @ HOU and vs MIA, while Baltimore plays @ PIT and vs BUF. If the Jets make the playoffs, the last thing I want is for them to have to go into Baltimore in the first round. Teams like Baltimore are the worst matchup for us, I think they, like Jacksonville, would manhandle us. We're not ready to face those big, physical teams.

I know it sounds crazy, but I'd rather the Jets face Indy or NE in the first round. Obviously not easy draws, but I think we have a chance against either of those teams, while Baltimore would annihilate us. Plus, you can bet your life the Saturday night primetime game would be Mangini vs Belichick. And me, personally, I love Saturday night playoff games more than anything.

[RIyankee]

The Pats clinch a playoff berth if the Cincy/Denver game ends in a tie.

[S2]

Looking at the schedules, I think Denver and the Jets get in, setting up a Pats-Broncos, Jets-Ravens first round.

[JWHIII]

Looking at the schedules, I think Denver and the Jets get in, setting up a Pats-Broncos, Jets-Ravens first round.

I like the Pats chances against Denver with a rookie QB going, but I'd rather see the Jets on wildcard weekend.

[Pepper03]

I like the Pats chances against Denver with a rookie QB going, but I'd rather see the Jets on wildcard weekend.

I don't like the Pats chances against the Broncos no matter who the QB is.

[RIyankee]

I like the Pats chances against Denver with a rookie QB going, but I'd rather see the Jets on wildcard weekend.

The thing about Plummer that bugged the Pats was his ability to throw deep outside of the pocket. Cutler strikes me as more of a pocket passer, thus easier to defend against.

JMHO

[JWHIII]

I don't like the Pats chances against the Broncos no matter who the QB is.

I should have said I like their chances better. If the Pats never played Denver again that would be fine with me.