McGwire and the HOF

[Big_E]

Ballots were released today....Gwynn and Ripken should be shoo-ins. What about Big Mac? Does he or does he not get elected?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2677950

[CTSoxFan]

Too many questions for a first-ballot "yes."

Too many achievements to leave him out for long.

[Allan]

Too many questions for a first-ballot "yes."

Too many achievements to leave him out for long.

Sort of like Pete Rose?

[ring403]

He'll definitely get snubbed the first time around. The images of his congressional testimony are still fresh.

[Soriambi]

Too many questions for a first-ballot "yes."

Too many achievements to leave him out for long.

I've never really understood this line of thinking, to be honest. I think that either a guy is a HOF or he's not a HOF. Nothing makes him better on his 2nd ballot. You might be saying that they should not vote him in on the first ballot just because of the steroid questions, which is okay if that's the only reason. I'm talking more about the "he was a great player, a HOF, but I wouldn't vote him in on the first ballot" argument that I see from time to time (so perhaps I'm not really referring to you here ) I just don't really get it.

As for McGwire, I honestly don't know. Purely numbers-wise of course he's a HOF, and it's not even close, but the steroids question looms large. He'll be an interesting litmus test of what kind of effect steroids (in this case very strong and in my view well founded suspicious of them) have on HOF voting. I really don't know what I'd do if I were a voter. Part of me would want to send a message, but the other part of me looks at the numbers and sees an All-Time great whose numbers certainly qualify him.

[CardNYY]

He should get in. First ballot ? forget it... I just hope he chooses the A's hat when he gets in...

[Soriambi]

He should get in. First ballot ? forget it... I just hope he chooses the A's hat when he gets in...

He doesn't have a choice of hats. It'll be interesting to see which team they give him.

[CardNYY]

He doesn't have a choice of hats. It'll be interesting to see which team they give him.

That's right, I forgot about that....

[cmaff05]

He doesn't have a choice of hats. It'll be interesting to see which team they give him.

Actually he does, but it is the final say of the HOF, I believe. You can't be unreasonable with it like Wade Boggs was.. but you have some leeway and it has to be approved by the HOF committee.

[Octoberbaby]

He should not get in.

[simmy886]

I have a feeling this will be a revolutionary and extremely vital decision. I personally don't care either way, but he will be setting a precedent and if you vote him in you may be opening a can of worms to have to vote in a ton of other "cheaters"

[Soriambi]

Actually he does, but it is the final say of the HOF, I believe. You can't be unreasonable with it like Wade Boggs was.. but you have some leeway and it has to be approved by the HOF committee.

Yeah, I think he is allowed to give his input but it is not his choice. If there are two teams that are nearly equal and he says I want to go in as a ___, the HOF might let him, but it's the HOF's call in the end. At least that's how I understand it.

[RhodyYanksFan]

Not for a while. Especially not next year with two of the best people to ever play...Cal and Tony Gwinn.

[Soriambi]

Not for a while. Especially not next year with two of the best people to ever play...Cal and Tony Gwinn.

I assume that without the steroids question you'd think he should go in next year, right?

[ace]

No, never.

[In Mo I Trust]

This is somewhat of a tough call for me, my gut is to keep him out of the Hall forever. However, if I wouldn't vote for McGwire, what about those players who I am 99% certain used steroids but never got caught?

[Krall]

Do the same people who vote on the MVP vote on the HoF ballots?

[Mattpat11]

This isn't Barry Bonds who was getting in anyway. McGwire doesn't belong.

[LuckyLopez]

Sort of like Pete Rose?

They're not guilty of the same thing so its wrong to compare them. McGwire's rule breaking seems closer to Gaylord Perry's then Pete Rose's.

And of course Rose signed a confession of his sins and to date there is NO evidence of McGwire's. Just lots of speculation and accusations.

[Philip Hughes Fan]

I like Bill James' keltner test as a starting point for any HOF discussion, so here goes:


1.) Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball? Yes, he certainly had a case in '98 and there were several others you could make an argument as well.

2.) Was he the best player on his team? Without a doubt.

3.) Was he the best player in baseball at his position? I would go with Frank Thomas until he became more of a DH, but there were years McGwire was the best, and of course Frank Thomas should be an inner-circle HOFer.

4.) Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? 1988, 1989, 1990, and 1992 he was a great hitter for playoff teams. He was great in 2000 too, albeit in only a little over 300 PA. He didn't do much in the playoffs, though.

5.) Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime? Eh, he's an odd case in that he really had his worst seasons where most players have their best. He peaked late, and was riddled with injuries his last two years. In 2001 it certainly looked like he was cooked, so I would say no, but like I said it's a weird case.

6.) Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame? Hmmm, this is a tough one. Off the top of my head I would probably take Shoeless Joe Jackson and Dick Allen over him, but obviously Jackson has the Black Sox scandal and Allen reportedly quit on teams and was a complete jerk. The problem is McGwire's problems could be, at the least, equivalent to Allen's.

7.) Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame? Of the 5 players on his top 10 comps, 2 of them are in the HOF (Killibrew and McCovey). Canseco may be if it weren't for the 'roids thing. Manny is definitely in once he retires. Delgado and Thome both have outside shots, although, they'll have to age much better than most big 1B sluggers do. Giambi has no shot because of 'roids.

8.) Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? Yes.

9.) Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics? I'll start off with his fielding and baserunning. I'd say both were below average at best. That certainly knocks him down a bit, but not enough to keep him out of the HOF. Of course this is where we get to the 800 lb. gorilla in the room: steroids. He is such a different case than say Bonds because I'm not sure McGwire is a HOF level hitter without roids. I'd need to read more about this to see if it looks like he was using substances that were banned (by MLB) and/or illegal at an early stage in his career. If not, I'm pretty sure I'd vote for him, but if so, eh...I don't know probably not.

10.) Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame? That I can think of.

11.) How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? About 6 MVP caliber seasons. Never won but should have in 1998. Was in the top 5 of voting 3 times.

12.) How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame? 8 All-Star caliber seasons. Played in 12 games. Yes.

13.) If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant? Absolutely.

14.) What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? Along with Sosa many gave him a lot of credit for revitalizing baseball, and of course who can forget that year of chasing 61. Once again though, the steroids, and his Andro use (legal and allowed at the time though) was used as fuel to get rule changes for steroid testing; obviously this isn't a positive in his case.

15.) Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider? Sounds like a great guy, a great teammate, etc. Roids, roids, roids.

I'm really on the fence with him. Right now I'm inclined to take a wait and see approach to see if any more info. comes up that either absolves him of some of the steroid questions or if more skeletons come out of his closet.

[JapanJobbers]

I'd vote for him just because there will be many players who used roids/HGH and will get in because nobody will know.

[Nome]

I've never really understood this line of thinking, to be honest. I think that either a guy is a HOF or he's not a HOF. Nothing makes him better on his 2nd ballot. You might be saying that they should not vote him in on the first ballot just because of the steroid questions, which is okay if that's the only reason. I'm talking more about the "he was a great player, a HOF, but I wouldn't vote him in on the first ballot" argument that I see from time to time (so perhaps I'm not really referring to you here ) I just don't really get it.

As for McGwire, I honestly don't know. Purely numbers-wise of course he's a HOF, and it's not even close, but the steroids question looms large. He'll be an interesting litmus test of what kind of effect steroids (in this case very strong and in my view well founded suspicious of them) have on HOF voting. I really don't know what I'd do if I were a voter. Part of me would want to send a message, but the other part of me looks at the numbers and sees an All-Time great whose numbers certainly qualify him.

The votors for the Hall of Fame are members of the Baseball Writers of America association.

Most see their home town players play much more than others. Most rarely if ever see many of the players from the "other" league. Their vote is partly a popularity contest. They almost certainly will cast a vote for the first year of eligibility for a home town player as long as he got along with the writer. Writers hold grudges (Ted Williams was universally disliked by sportswriters esp Boston writers) and as the years go on the grudges tend to lessen.

All this is to say is that voting is not an exact science and of the ten votes a writer is to cast quite a few are given out of sentimental reasons and are enough to give a solid HOF type player in a smaller market out of the HOF for a few years.

Fair, no. Understandable, yes. It is the system we have; and any system one could devise would have flaws.

OK, McGuire, because of the steroid stigma, almost certainly will not get into the HOF on the first and maybe not even the second year of eligibility.

Does he belong? A resounding yea. Remember, of course, I still feel Rose needs to be in the HOF because of his play on the field.

Andy

[Rocketman]

Steroids or not, Mark McGwire is the third best first baseman in the history of baseball. Only Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx were superior. (Reference: New Historical Baseball Abstract)

He clearly has Hall of Fame numbers.

[Reggie Smith]

Absolutely. There will be lots of discussions about how he was the product of steroids (but, he hit 49 HRs as a rookie and was half the size). Or, that he was a one-dimensional player (but, he won the 1990 Gold Glove).

I just do not understand how someone can be found guilty based on a book by Jose Canseco. If there is a trial, and he is proven that he took steroids, and when, then that would be open to discussion. Say it was only his last couple of seasons...does the 400+ he hit still get him in? How many were "legal" homeruns and how many weren't? There is no way to answer these questions, so I can't imagine he can be painted with a guilty brush so broadly. Unfortunately, that goes for anybody else who has been accused (Bonds, Giambi, Clemens, Casey Fossum , etc.).

If we are going to keep players out based on innuendo, then I think many of the players from the 70's shouldn't be in, either, since they were all on uppers.

[cmaff05]

This isn't Barry Bonds who was getting in anyway. McGwire doesn't belong.

What do you mean? McGwire clearly has HOF numbers.. first ballot numbers at that.

[In Mo I Trust]

What do you mean? McGwire clearly has HOF numbers.. first ballot numbers at that.

I assume he means Bonds was already a HOFer before he got huge, whereas McGwire was not.

[johnnyyankee]

The steroid era is a part of baseball history and perhaps the story should be told and available to those that visit the HOF. How about the grand opening of the steroid wing of the HOF with McGwire as it's inaugural member?

[yanksphan]

I think he should go in first ballot, but I have a feeling he gets snubbed once or twice.

[silverdsl]

I just do not understand how someone can be found guilty based on a book by Jose Canseco. If there is a trial, and he is proven that he took steroids, and when, then that would be open to discussion.

That's my issue as well. McGwire's testimony in front of Congress was pretty damning. However, he's never tested failed a drug test, he's never been involved in a Balco-like scandal, etc... Is is likely that McGwire used steroids? Yes. Do we know for sure? No. And it makes me uncomfortable that a player should be kept out of the HOF because maybe he used steroids - if he's kept out it should be because it's known for sure that he used performance enhancers. In addition, a player needs to have talent on their own to put up the kind of stats that McGwire did during his career. Performance enhancers might have helped him, but they aren't the sole reason why he has HOF numbers.

[stephsamps]

I have a feeling he will get in, but not on the first try... a sort of punishment if you will.

[BillBuckner]

Pending further evidence. If there is any.

[bobbymagee]

He might, but hope never in my time. He intentionally mislead all, and cheated by using drugs to win. He is a total lie.

[STNYY]

It's a completely empty symbolic gesture not to vote for McGwire this time, but it's one I would make if I were a voter. Even without the steroids stuff, his single season record was broken a mere 3 years later and given the overall era in which he played, 500 HR just doesn't mean the same thing. Remove 1998 and what you have is a career where he wasn't that great for that long.

If not for 98, MacGwire would be on the bubble, so I have no problem with 'punishing' him by making him wait since the primary reason for his induction is dampened by both era he played in and what he may have done to achieve it (even if it wasn't against the rules at the time).

[SoCal Pinstriper]

He belongs in my book, but there is no way he'll make it with Gwynn abd Cal next year.

[PJMPirate]

when does voting occur and the results come out?

[Smithers]

If I'm a voter, I might wait until there's nobody else really worth voting in. Ex: If he had been on the ballot LAST year, i think he would have gotten in. But this year with Ripken and Gwynn, I dunno if he deserves to stand next to those two. Or any truly worthy first-balloters each year.

[Nome]

If I'm a voter, I might wait until there's nobody else really worth voting in. Ex: If he had been on the ballot LAST year, i think he would have gotten in. But this year with Ripken and Gwynn, I dunno if he deserves to stand next to those two. Or any truly worthy first-balloters each year.

Each eligible sportswriter submits a ballot with ten names on it that he feels worthy of the HOF. Any player receiving one of the ten votes on 75% or more of the ballots is elected to the Hall.

Do you mean out of the relatively small (look it up) list of eligible former player candidates you wouldn't put McGuire as one of the ten.? Ie of all the players there Mark wouldn't be in your top ten?

Andy

[Rocketman]

Again, I cannot believe this is an issue. He's the THIRD BEST FIRST BASEMAN of all time. In the history of the sport, there have been only two first basemen who have been better.

McGwire was better than:
Cap Anson
Jake Beckley
Jim Bottomley
Dan Brouthers
Orlando Cepeda
Frank Chance
Roger Connor
Hank Greenberg
George Kelly
Harmon Killebrew
Buck Leonard
Willie McCovey
Johnny Mize
Eddie Murray
Tony Perez
George Sisler
Bill Terry

Steroids or not, if you're going to put those guys in the Hall of Fame (and, hint, they're already there!) you need to put Mark McGwire there.

[RedGlare]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061128/...f_fame_mcgwire

The Associated Press surveyed about 20 percent of eligible voters, and only one in four who gave an opinion plan to vote for McGwire this year. That's far short of the 75 percent necessary to gain induction.

"There is a clause on the ballot indicating that character should be considered and after his nonperformance at the congressional hearings his character certainly comes into play," said the Dayton Daily News' Hal McCoy.

"He doesn't want to talk about the past?" he said, "Then I don't want to consider his past."

[Smithers]

Each eligible sportswriter submits a ballot with ten names on it that he feels worthy of the HOF. Any player receiving one of the ten votes on 75% or more of the ballots is elected to the Hall.

Do you mean out of the relatively small (look it up) list of eligible former player candidates you wouldn't put McGuire as one of the ten.? Ie of all the players there Mark wouldn't be in your top ten?

Andy

Wait that means you HAVE to vote for ten? That makes it easier for him to get in.

And now I wonder even more why Jim Rice isn't in.

[STNYY]

Again, I cannot believe this is an issue. He's the THIRD BEST FIRST BASEMAN of all time.

How so?

Black Ink: Batting - 36 (41) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 110 (189) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 42.0 (126) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 169.5 (60) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Similar Batters

1. Jim Thome (833)
2. Jose Canseco (807)
3. Carlos Delgado (788)
4. Harmon Killebrew (782) *
5. Willie McCovey (767) *
6. Manny Ramirez (753)
7. Juan Gonzalez (738)
8. Norm Cash (737)
9. Jason Giambi (737)
10. Dave Kingman (730)

source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mcgwima01.shtml

Take away 98 and tell me where he ranks.

[yanksphan]

How so?

Black Ink: Batting - 36 (41) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 110 (189) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 42.0 (126) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 169.5 (60) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Similar Batters

1. Jim Thome (833)
2. Jose Canseco (807)
3. Carlos Delgado (788)
4. Harmon Killebrew (782) *
5. Willie McCovey (767) *
6. Manny Ramirez (753)
7. Juan Gonzalez (738)
8. Norm Cash (737)
9. Jason Giambi (737)
10. Dave Kingman (730)

source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mcgwima01.shtml

Take away 98 and tell me where he ranks.

Your rankings are not position specific.

Why take away a year? If that's the case, I would guess more than a few HoFers might have different and HoF "Standard" questionable resumes.

[Nome]

Wait that means you HAVE to vote for ten? That makes it easier for him to get in.

And now I wonder even more why Jim Rice isn't in.

Jim Rice had an abrasive personality as did Ritchie Allen and Ted Williams and let me add Bobby Bonds. They shouldn't count when it comes to voting time, but they do.

Rice should be in there on playing ability; forget personality issues.

Andy

[STNYY]

Your rankings are not position specific.

Why take away a year? If that's the case, I would guess more than a few HoFers might have different and HoF "Standard" questionable resumes.

Because that year is the number one reason for his candidancy, and the year under the cloud of suspicion. That's the essence of the debate isn't it: if he a HOFer because he broke Maris's record or for his overall career achievements? If breaking Maris's record is what makes him a HOFer, then does it matter how he did it?

IMO, ultimately, he's in. But without 70HR, I do not think MacGwire is a HOFer, period, regardless of whatever he ingested.

EDIT: and take away Gwynn, Ripken or even Bond's best year, and they still make it. You have to be among the best at your position for more than 3 years to be a HOFer IMO.

[Dynasties R Forever]

Sort of like Pete Rose?

McGwire was involved in a betting scandal?

[yanksphan]

Because that year is the number one reason for his candidancy, and the year under the cloud of suspicion. That's the essence of the debate isn't it: if he a HOFer because he broke Maris's record or for his overall career achievements? If breaking Maris's record is what makes him a HOFer, then does it matter how he did it?

I'm guessing you didn't get to watch him much for his entire career?

That's like saying aside from Reggie's 3HR game, he never really did much else.

[donniesrecordholdsup]

when you really look at mcgwire, hes overated anyway because all he did was hit homeruns. w/o 500 homers hes not close to a hall of fame player and i think its safe to assume w/o roids he wouldnt have been over 500. imo he should never get in.

somebody like bonds i can see leaving off for a while just because hes a cheater but then eventually putting him in because 1- he was an all around great player and 2- he wouldve been a hall of famer w/o roids just not one of the top 5 players ever.

but at the same time i would have no problem if the voters never wanted to put any known cheaters like bonds in the hall even if they were legitimatly great players.

[STNYY]

I'm guessing you didn't get to watch him much for his entire career?

That's like saying aside from Reggie's 3HR game, he never really did much else.

The Reggie reference is cute, but it's a strawman.

No, I had the pleasure of watching him sit on the bench in Oakland for a good part of 93-95, not to mention 88-91 when (edit: although healthy) he didn't crack 40HR once. His career was relatively short by HOF standards, only 16 seasons.

Sorry, but without the mania of the 98 season, he's not a first ballot HOFer. If 500HR is all it takes, then Palmero and Sosa get in on the first ballot too, right?

[In Mo I Trust]

Sorry, but without the mania of the 98 season, he's not a first ballot HOFer. If 500HR is all it takes, then Palmero and Sosa get in on the first ballot too, right?

They would have been, without the steroid cloud hanging over them. This isn't about his numbers or how many years he played.

[STNYY]

They would have been, without the steroid cloud hanging over them. This isn't about his numbers or how many years he played.

Clearly. I'm simply disputing the notion that MacGwire is a no-brainer first ballot HOFer if not for steriods. I think that given the offensive era he played in, 500HR just isn't what it used to be, and a single season HR record that only stood for 3 years isn't the same as Maris's record, and holding any single season record, even the Golden HR record, isn't a ticket to the Hall, as Maris showed.

So if having the single season HR record isn't a HOF guarantee, and 500HR is about to become more common, what, exactly, pushes MacGwire into Cooperstown? I still haven't heard a cogent argument in his favor besides 70/500.

Before 1998 and don't think many would have made an argument for his HOF status. In fact, even after 98, most thought it would take at least 500HR to make him a candidate. So I think it's reasonable to consider him on the bubble even if his congressional testimony wasn't the last image anyone ever had of the guy.