The NFL: Week# 9

[RIyankee]

WEEK 9

DPR: Defensive Passer Rating

YPA: Offense Passing Yards Per Attempt (includes sacks and yds lost)

RI: Run Index - the average NFL rankings of Total Rushing Yards per game, the per game sum of Rushing 1st Downs and Rushing TDs, and Yards Per Carry.

DRI: Run Index (defense)

Quality Records are in parentheses.


Sunday, Nov. 5

Atlanta at Detroit 1:00 p.m.
Falcons 5-2 (1-2), Lions 1-6 (0-4)
When the Falcons have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Atlanta 1.00 (1st)
DRI: Detroit 14.33 (13th)
Advantage: Falcons
Passing:
YPA: Atlanta 5.45 (24th)
DPR: Detroit 108.8 (32nd)
Advantage: Falcons
When the Lions have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Detroit 24.00 (T-25th)
DRI: Atlanta 12.00 (12th)
Advantage: Falcons
Passing:
YPA: Detroit 6.03 (15th)
DPR: Arizona 80.3 (17th)
Advantage: EVEN
Intangibles: Vick and the Atlanta offense has been impressive. Can Vick keep it going into December? That remains to be seen.
Falcons 30-16

Cincinnati at Baltimore 1:00 p.m.
Bengals 4-3 (1-2), Ravens 5-2 (2-1)
When the Bengals have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Cincinnati 22.67 (22nd)
DRI: Baltimore 1.00 (1st)
Advantage: Ravens
Passing:
YPA: Cincinnati 6.12 (13th)
DPR: Baltimore 61.0 (1st)
Advantage: Bengals
When the Ravens have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Baltimore 24.00 (T-25th)
DRI: Cincinnati 27.00 (28th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Baltimore 5.17 (29th)
DPR: Cincinnati 77.1 (15th)
Advantage: Cincinnati
Intangibles: The Ravens league leading DPR is very deceptive. It's due to an NFL best 15 INTs. However, FS Ed Reed and CB Samari Rolle have struggled mightily against the deep pass. For this reason alone, look for Cincy to bounce back and take over the top spot of the AFC North.
Bengals 31-17

Dallas at Washington 1:00 p.m.
Dallas 4-3 (0-2), Washington 2-5 (1-4)
When the Cowboys have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Dallas 5.33 (5th)
DRI: Washington 15.00 (T- 15th)
Advantage: Cowboys
Passing:
YPA: Dallas 6.23 (11th)
DPR: Washington 101.4 (29th)
Advantage: Cowboys
When the Redskins have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Washington 7.33 (7th)
DRI: Dallas 5.33 (4th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Washington 6.37 (9th)
DPR: Dallas 70.5 (6th)
Advantage: EVEN
Intangibles: This game has lost it lustre. However, expect an exciting game nonetheless. Intangibles, things one cannot measure or explain, seem to dominate whenever these two teams meet.
Redskins 24-17

Green Bay at Buffalo 1:00 p.m.
Green Bay 3-4 (0-3), Buffalo 2-5 (1-3)
When the Packers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Green Bay 10.67 (T-10th)
DRI: Buffalo 20.00 (T-20th)
Advantage: Packers
Passing:
YPA: Green Bay 5.91 (18th)
DPR: Buffalo 88.9 (24th)
Advantage: EVEN
When the Titans have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Buffalo 22.00 (21st)
DRI: Green Bay 10.00 (T-9th)
Advantage: Packers
Passing:
YPA: Buffalo 5.21 (27th)
DPR: Green Bay 86.1 (21st)
Advantage: Packers
Intangibles: The stats favor the Pack, but Bret Favre is overdue for a multi-INT game and the Bills are due for a win.
Bills 17-13

Houston at NY Giants 1:00 p.m.
Houston 2-5 (1-2), NY Giants 5-2 (2-2)
When the Texans have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Houston 24.33 (28th)
DRI: NY Giants 14.67 (14th)
Advantage: Giants
Passing:
YPA: Houston 5.90 (19th)
DPR: NY Giants 73.8 (8th)
Advantage: Giants
When the Giants have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: NY Giants 4.33 (4th)
DRI: Houston 26.33 (26th)
Advantage: Giants
Passing:
YPA: NY Giants 6.31 (10th)
DPR: Houston 105.0 (31st)
Advantage: Giants
Intangibles: This is the kind of game that's most popular with survival leagues.
Giants 27-10

Kansas City at St. Louis 1:00 p.m.
Kansas City 4-3 (2-2), St. Louis 4-3 (1-2)
When the Chiefs have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Kansas City 18.33 (17th)
DRI: St. Louis 26.67 (27th)
Advantage: Chiefs
Passing:
YPA: Kansas City 6.58 (8th)
DPR: St. Louis 81.2 (18th)
Advantage: Chiefs
When the Rams have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: St. Louis 23.00 (T-23rd)
DRI: Kansas City 18.00 (18th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: St. Louis 6.64 (7th)
DPR: Kansas City 82.0 (19th)
Advantage: Rams
Intangibles: The battle for the Governor's Cup should be a good one.
Rams 31-28

Miami at Chicago 1:00 p.m.
Miami 1-6 (0-1) Chicago 7-0 (2-0)
When the Dolphins have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Miami 23.00 (T-23rd)
DRI: Chicago 6.00 (5th)
Advantage: Bears
Passing:
YPA: Miami 5.38 (26th)
DPR: Chicago 66.5 (3rd)
Advantage: Bears
When the Bears have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Chicago 21.00 (20th)
DRI: Miami 7.00 (8th)
Advantage: Dolphins
Passing:
YPA: Chicago 6.87 (4th)
DPR: Miami 93.7 (26th)
Advantage: Bears
Intangibles: The Dolphins poor secondary will be no match for Da Bears passing attack.
Bears 38-10

New Orleans at Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m.
New Orleans 5-2 (1-1), Tampa Bay 2-5 (1-4)
When the Saints have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: New Orleans 24.00 (T-25th)
DRI: Tampa Bay 29.00 (30th)
Advantage: Saints
Passing:
YPA: New Orleans 7.02 (3rd)
DPR: Tampa Bay 87.2 (23rd)
Advantage: Saints
When the Buccaneers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Tampa Bay 2.67 (30th)
DRI: New Orleans 29.33 (22nd)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Tampa Bay 4.32 (31st)
DPR: New Orleans 87.0 (22nd)
Advantage: Saints
Intangibles: New Orleans has too much fire power.
Saints 26-24

Tennessee at Jacksonville 1:00 p.m.
Tennessee 2-5 (0-3), Jacksonville 4-3 (1-1)
When the Titans have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Tennessee 12.67 (12th)
DRI: Jacksonville 10.00 (T-9th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Tennessee 5.19 (28th)
DPR: Jacksonville 69.1 (4th)
Advantage: Jaguars
When the Jaguars have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Jacksonville 9.67 (8th)
DRI: Tennessee 31.00 (31st)
Advantage: Jaguars
Passing:
YPA: Jacksonville 5.65 (20th)
DPR: Tennessee 93.8 (27th)
Advantage: Jaguars
Intangibles: Looks like Leftwich will be playing elsewhere in 2007.
Jaguars 21-10

Minnesota at San Francisco 4:05 p.m.
Minnesota 4-3 (1-2), San Francisco 2-5 (1-3)
When the Vikings have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Minnesota 20.67 (19th)
DRI: San Francisco 24.67 (24th)
Advantage: Vikings
Passing:
YPA: Minnesota 5.93 (17th)
DPR: San Francisco 103.6 (30th)
Advantage: Vikings
When the 49ers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: San Francisco 10.67 (T-10th)
DRI: Minnesota 3.33 (2nd)
Advantage: Vikings
Passing:
YPA: San Francisco 6.00 (16th)
DPR: Minnesota 75.6 (11th)
Advantage: Vikings
Intangibles: The Vikes must shake off the MNF embarrassment and playing st SF is a good place to start.
Vikings 24-19

Cleveland at San Diego 4:15 p.m.
Cleveland 2-5 (0-4), San Diego 5-2 (1-2)
When the Browns have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Cleveland 27.67 (31st)
DRI: San Diego 11.67 (11th)
Advantage: Chargers
Passing:
YPA: Cleveland 4.79 (30th)
DPR: San Diego 75.6 (12th)
Advantage: Chargers
When the Chargers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: San Diego 3.67 (T-2nd)
DRI: Cleveland 21.67 (23rd)
Advantage: Chargers
Passing:
YPA: San Diego 6.67 (6th)
DPR: Cleveland 65.8 (2nd)
Advantage: EVEN
Intangibles: After beating the Jets, the Browns run into a buzz-saw at San Diego.
Chargers 20-6

Denver at Pittsburgh 4:15 p.m.
Denver 5-2 (3-2), Pittsburgh 2-5 (1-4)
When the Broncos have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Denver 3.67 (T-2nd)
DRI: Pittsburgh 6.33 (T-6th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Denver 5.45 (23rd)
DPR: Pittsburgh 69.4 (5th)
Advantage: Steelers
When the Steelers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Pittsburgh 17.33 (15th)
DRI: Denver 6.33 (T-6th)
Advantage: Broncos
Passing:
YPA: Pittsburgh 6.81 (5th)
DPR: Denver 77.5 (16th)
Advantage: Steelers
Intangibles: The Steelers are desperate. Their season is on the line.
Steelers 24-23

Indianapolis at New England 8:15 p.m.
Indianapolis 7-0 (3-0), New England 6-1 (2-1)
When the Colts have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Indianapolis 14.67 (13th)
DRI: New England 3.67 (3rd)
Advantage: Patriots
Passing:
YPA: Indianapolis 7.60 (1st)
DPR: New England 73.2 (7th)
Advantage: Colts
When the Patriots have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: New England 10.33 (9th)
DRI: Indianapolis 32.00 (32nd)
Advantage: Patriots
Passing:
YPA: New England 6.17 (12th)
DPR: Indianapolis 90.7 (25th)
Advantage: Patriots
Intangibles: Bottom Line: can Indy's passing game continue to cover up a multitude of sins on the defense? This game will likely come down to the last possession.
Patriots 38-34

Monday, Nov. 6

Oakland at Seattle 8:30 p.m.
Oakland 2-5 (0-3), Seattle 4-3 (2-3)
When the Raiders have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Oakland 18.67 (18th)
DRI: Seattle 15.67 (17th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Oakland 2.76 (32nd)
DPR: Seattle 95.6 (28th)
Advantage: Seahawks
When the Seahawks have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Seattle 24.67 (29th)
DRI: Oakland 15.00 (T-15th)
Advantage: Raiders
Passing:
YPA: Seattle 5.56 (21st)
DPR: Oakland 73.8 (9th)
Advantage: Raiders
Intangibles: Statistics favor the Raiders. That's why we need intangibles.
Seahawks 27-13

Open date: Arizona, Carolina, NY Jets, Philadelphia

[dabomb2045]

Only games we disagree on are Broncos-Steelers and Cowboys-Skins.

[DaBoys4LifeNYY35]

Intangibles: This game has lost it lustre. However, expect an exciting game nonetheless.
Redskins 24-17

Thanks, Mark!

...not sure I understand your pick though. In the four metrics you list, two of them you determine "EVEN", the other two you determine the advantage goes to the Cowboys... and then you pick the other way. Not gonna complain about that, though.

[RIyankee]

Thanks, Mark!

...not sure I understand your pick though. In the four metrics you list, two of them you determine "EVEN", the other two you determine the advantage goes to the Cowboys... and then you pick the other way. Not gonna complain about that, though.

That's why we have intangibles. Things one cannot measure or explain. Intangibles seem to dominate whenever these two teams meet.

[jlw1980]

The Broncos won't lose two in a row...and the Steelers' season is all ready over.

[RIyankee]

The Broncos won't lose two in a row...and the Steelers' season is all ready over.

The Broncos don't match up well against the Steelers and the Steelers are at home coming off an embarrassing loss.

[S2]

Admit it - who else scrolled down directly to the Pats-Colts prediction?

[JeffWeaverFan]

Admit it - who else scrolled down directly to the Pats-Colts prediction?

I would have but I had a pretty good guess who Mark was going to pick for that one.

[TheBamTino24]

The games here I think will go a different way are:

1. Dallas over Washington. I liked what I saw in terms of team cohesion, execution and resiliency from the Cowboys last sunday night in Carolina. I know the Redskins probably have a few bullets left to hit some teams with, but I don't think it comes this week against a rejuvenated Parcells team.

2. Indianapolis over New England. Despite the way the Patriots thrashed the Vikings, after what I saw the Colts do at Denver, I think they roll. For soem reason the Patriot beatdown on Peyton Manning only shows up in the postseason.

Other than those two, I agree, RIyankee. I'll be interested to see if Green Bay can get to 4-4 in Buffalo and I think Pittsburgh will have a great effort against Denver. The Steelers have become a desperate team at 2-5.

[NYYFAN]

Admit it - who else scrolled down directly to the Pats-Colts prediction?

Why, its Mark...

[RIyankee]

For some reason the Patriot beatdown on Peyton Manning only shows up in the postseason.

Actually...

Colts/Pats regular season games since 2001:

2001
@NE - Pats 44-13
@Indy - Pats 38-17

2003
@Indy - Pats 38-34 (This game shouldn't have been close. Faulk's fumble gave Indy new life. The Pats built up a 31-10 lead.)

2004
@NE - Pats 27-24

2005
@NE - Colts 40-21

That's a 4-1 tally for the Pats.

[NYYFAN]

Actually...

Colts/Pats regular season games since 2001:

2001
@NE - Pats 44-13
@Indy - Pats 38-17

2003
@Indy - Pats 38-34 (This game shouldn't have been close. Faulk's fumble gave Indy new life. The Pats built up a 31-10 lead.)

2004
@NE - Pats 27-24

2005
@NE - Colts 40-21

That's a 4-1 tally for the Pats.

Do you see a trend in the scores?

[RIyankee]

Do you see a trend in the scores?

What? Did the Pats pick up Duane Starks?

[CardNYY]

Rams over the Chiefs ? A bold prediction, considering we have never fared well against them for the past 7 yrs... I forgot they're playing in STL...

[JWHIII]

In '03 the Colts erased a 21 point deficit in about 10 minutes, the Pats helped them along, but it was impressive, right up until the Pats stuffed them on the goal line. In the '04 opener they were moving the ball well too, but thanks to a Willie McGinest sack and Vanderjagt, they weren't able to force OT. Both games came down to the last play and it wouldn't surprise me if the same happened Sunday night.

[RIyankee]

CHFF Picks

[TheBamTino24]

Do you see a trend in the scores?

That's been my perception. Manning plays relatively well against them in the regular season, yet bombs in the postseason.

[dabomb2045]

Vanderjerk misses another big FG....shocking

[Dave Visbeck]

Makes me that the only afternoon game I can watch is the friggin' 49ers

[CardNYY]

Another week, and the Rams are still putrid...

[jlw1980]

I can't believe Da Bears lost to Miami, of all teams!

[26 and counting]

The Steelers' playoff hopes are about to be extinguished. If they want to make the playoffs, they'll have to run the table.

And I think that it's about time to start saying that the Bengals are overrated.

[RhodyYanksFan]

I picked Detroit at first but changed it at the last minute. I really should go with my gut more often.