View Full Version : Posada's 2007 Option
Posada_20
01-10-06, 08:34 AM
Is it possible that if the Yanks decided to bring in someone like Bengi Molina and limit Posada to less than 60 games catching that the Players Association could file a grievance against the Yanks charging that its obvious that the Yanks limited his games behind the plate solely for the purpose of preventing his 12 mill 2007 option from kicking in? Curious about that.
freebubba
01-10-06, 09:14 AM
I am sure they could, and probably would. If Jorge continues his downword trend at the plate (the only plus he ever had as far as I am concerned), I can taste the vomit in the back of my throat already when I think about him making $12mil next year
See:
http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread.php?t=91748 for some great discussion of this issue. :)
keithf1
01-10-06, 01:31 PM
I am sure they could, and probably would. If Jorge continues his downword trend at the plate (the only plus he ever had as far as I am concerned), I can taste the vomit in the back of my throat already when I think about him making $12mil next year
I taste mine right now.
shcabot
01-10-06, 01:46 PM
Poor Jorge.
BronxBombers2005
01-10-06, 01:55 PM
I hope to see him back in 2007, but for 12 million, uhh that makes you want to think about it. It would be different with him not behind the plate.
Mr. Mxylsplk
01-10-06, 02:09 PM
Is it possible that if the Yanks decided to bring in someone like Bengi Molina and limit Posada to less than 60 games catching that the Players Association could file a grievance against the Yanks charging that its obvious that the Yanks limited his games behind the plate solely for the purpose of preventing his 12 mill 2007 option from kicking in? Curious about that.
If that happened, I think it's likely there would be a grievance. But unless there's specific language in the contract that they can't switch his position, winning a grievance could be a tough fight. Jorge's been declining. It's not unreasonable to think he a) either needs more rest on the bench or b) at least needs more rest out from behind the plate as a DH. I think the yanks would have a pretty strong argument that making a move like that is simply done in the best interests of the team, not something designed specifically to block Jorge's option. On the other hand, 60 games is so few, that it might be a tough sell for the yanks to convince someone he really wasn't suited to play even that many.
Contracts don't exist in a 1 year bubble. If the option kicks in, it's a 6 year, $63M deal. That's 10.5M a year instead of the $10.2 it would have been if the option didn't kick in.
More than a potential grievance, what you have to think about here is your integrity as a ball club and how future players perceive said integrity. Playing time options are based on a player's ability to stay healthy. When you start screwing with that and the player has no physical problems, you open the door to much bigger problems than simply a grievance with that player, but problems with every player you negotiate with who remembers how you treated Posada.
BTW, Molina has serious problems staying healthy for a whole season. If he gets signed, Posada is quite likely to appear in the games he needs anyway.
38Special
01-10-06, 03:42 PM
Oh stop it with the grievance stuff. This has happened plenty of the times before with other teams, and the reality is that the team can reason that they want to improve the defense because they are disappointed with Jorge's defense (which has some factual backing.
That being said, I dont want Molina
ryanthe13th
01-10-06, 04:18 PM
Bringing in Molina would defeat the purpose of not picking up Jorge's option. The only thing Molina does significantly better than Jorge is swing a better bat.
Bringing in Molina would defeat the purpose of not picking up Jorge's option. The only thing Molina does significantly better than Jorge is swing a better bat.
I would say he doesn't even do that. Posada actually had a better EQA than Molina last year, .272 to .268. In addition, Molina padded his overall numbers with some limited time at DH in which he absolutely tore the cover off the ball. His stats at catcher were actually less impressive. Finally, Molina got hurt once again and ended up with about 100 fewer plate appearences.
guidry36
01-10-06, 04:42 PM
Contracts don't exist in a 1 year bubble. If the option kicks in, it's a 6 year, $63M deal. That's 10.5M a year instead of the $10.2 it would have been if the option didn't kick in.
More than a potential grievance, what you have to think about here is your integrity as a ball club and how future players perceive said integrity. Playing time options are based on a player's ability to stay healthy. When you start screwing with that and the player has no physical problems, you open the door to much bigger problems than simply a grievance with that player, but problems with every player you negotiate with who remembers how you treated Posada.
BTW, Molina has serious problems staying healthy for a whole season. If he gets signed, Posada is quite likely to appear in the games he needs anyway.
Excellent post. I agree that a grievance isn't really the issue. Posada shouldn't catch 130+ games a season any more, but 60?? There is no way Torre would do that, with or without Molina in the picture. If the deal were frontloaded instead of backloaded, his 2007 option wouldn't even be an issue. I'm more worried about Giambi in 2008 for $21 mil. than I am about Posada in 2007 for $12 mil., then again, the Yankees chose to backload both deals.....the consequence of which can be declined production in the latter years of the deal. Posada is one of the good guys, anyways.....it isn't an issue of behavior problems.... substance abuse, etc. Both Posada and the Yankees will honor the terms of his contract. 2007 will be his 10th year as the Yankees starting C.....the only worry should be about grooming a replacement. There is very little for C in the Yankees minor league system, so the backup C for 2007 should be someone who could take over the job in 2008..... someone Posada could help ease into the job, as Girardi helped him.
pettitte_mussina
01-10-06, 04:48 PM
Is it possible that if the Yanks decided to bring in someone like Bengi Molina and limit Posada to less than 60 games catching that the Players Association could file a grievance against the Yanks charging that its obvious that the Yanks limited his games behind the plate solely for the purpose of preventing his 12 mill 2007 option from kicking in? Curious about that.
anything's possible... but i hope it doesn't happen. hate bengie molina; love, love, love, LOOOOOVE posada!!!!
jimmyclark
01-10-06, 05:57 PM
I don't see the Yankees doing this. Jon Heyman from Newsday has advocated doing this so that is a good reason not to do it. Heyman thought Steve Phillips deserved a lifetime contract for signing Tom Glavine 3 years ago. Posada is declining but still has some value.Molina certainly hit well agaisnt the Yankees but stunk out the joint agaisnt the White Sox.
$12 million is a lot of money but do you really want to get your clubhouse upset by shafting a long-time Yankee over money? Grit your teeth, play Posada as much as is good for the team (Kelly Stinnett as backup isn't much of an option) and count it as a learning experience. Athletes can get hissy and hysterical over minor slights.
BronxBombers2005
01-10-06, 06:08 PM
I don't see the Yankees doing this. Jon Heyman from Newsday has advocated doing this so that is a good reason not to do it. Heyman thought Steve Phillips deserved a lifetime contract for signing Tom Glavine 3 years ago. Posada is declining but still has some value.Molina certainly hit well agaisnt the Yankees but stunk out the joint agaisnt the White Sox.
$12 million is a lot of money but do you really want to get your clubhouse upset by shafting a long-time Yankee over money? Grit your teeth, play Posada as much as is good for the team (Kelly Stinnett as backup isn't much of an option) and count it as a learning experience. Athletes can get hissy and hysterical over minor slights.
Yea good post.....I dont see the yanks it eaither, lets just hope Posada goes back the the way he was in 2003.
enterthesandman
01-10-06, 09:39 PM
I don't care if his option kicks in in 2007 as long as they can somehow find a young guy he can mentor and platoon with... sure wish we had Navarro right about now.
nnysiny
01-10-06, 09:54 PM
Posada in 2007 will be a disaster but Molina supposedly has been declining defensively, so getting him would be pointless. if only there was a catcher waiting in the wings...
surge511
01-10-06, 10:25 PM
I don't care if his option kicks in in 2007 as long as they can somehow find a young guy he can mentor and platoon with... sure wish we had Navarro right about now.
This is exactly right. The pain would be eased if we had a viable option after Posada. But we don't, after Posada's contract runs out we will be left out to dry. It is not a good situation. If we somehow trade for or draft a new C, at least we can use Posada's declining years to our advantage. Maybe a minor league IFer can make the transition. Whatever we do, we better do it quick...
JavyVazquezIsSick
01-10-06, 11:09 PM
This is exactly right. The pain would be eased if we had a viable option after Posada. But we don't, after Posada's contract runs out we will be left out to dry. It is not a good situation. If we somehow trade for or draft a new C, at least we can use Posada's declining years to our advantage. Maybe a minor league IFer can make the transition. Whatever we do, we better do it quick...
With a team so offensively centered, losing the offense of the catcher won't cripple the team. All the team needs is a solid defensive catcher who calls a good game. Losing Posada's offense isn't that big of a deal considering its rapidly declining and last year Posada was barely above average...
Mattpat11
01-10-06, 11:43 PM
I don't care if his option kicks in in 2007 as long as they can somehow find a young guy he can mentor and platoon with... sure wish we had Navarro right about now.Do we really want Posada mentoring someone?
"Okay now, first lesson. If there's a runner coming in from third and the cutoff man is throwing you the ball, make sure you're as far away from homeplate as possible. Also, when on the bases, always run when the ball is hit in front of you. Further, when batting, if the umpire calls a ball a strike and you don't agree with the call, the best thing to do is stubbornly refuse to swing at that pitch everytime its thrown. Escpecially in big spots. That'll learn that umpire."
CalYankeeFan
01-11-06, 02:34 AM
Do we really want Posada mentoring someone?
"Okay now, first lesson. If there's a runner coming in from third and the cutoff man is throwing you the ball, make sure you're as far away from homeplate as possible. Also, when on the bases, always run when the ball is hit in front of you. Further, when batting, if the umpire calls a ball a strike and you don't agree with the call, the best thing to do is stubbornly refuse to swing at that pitch everytime its thrown. Escpecially in big spots. That'll learn that umpire."
"...and one more thing. If you come up with a runner on first and less than two outs....hit it directly to second base. It gets them every time, especially if there are runners on 2nd and/or 3rd at the same time."
This is exactly right. The pain would be eased if we had a viable option after Posada. But we don't, after Posada's contract runs out we will be left out to dry. It is not a good situation. If we somehow trade for or draft a new C, at least we can use Posada's declining years to our advantage. Maybe a minor league IFer can make the transition. Whatever we do, we better do it quick...
The Yankees are trying that this season with Kyle Anson, a 3rd baseman drafted as a college senior this past June. He has excellent OBP, and really has a good eye. Has a solid arm, and the body type to be a catcher.
It did not work out with Nate Phillips, drafted in 2004. But Anson may have a realistic shot at converting.
Hey, Posada was a second baseman at one time in his career, before convertig. But Anson will not be ready for 2-3 years, in any case.
shcabot
01-11-06, 08:03 AM
It's too bad we didn't keep Dioner Navarro instead of trading him away. I hope that doesn't come back to bite us.
With a team so offensively centered, losing the offense of the catcher won't cripple the team. All the team needs is a solid defensive catcher who calls a good game. Losing Posada's offense isn't that big of a deal considering its rapidly declining and last year Posada was barely above average...
Catchers hit .253/.313/.387 last year. There's a long, long way between that and Posada's .262/.352/.430. He was 4th among all catchers in EQA.
You can't just say that the Yankees don't need offense out of the C spot. It's a big part of what allows the offense to separate itself from that of other teams. When you give up on that, you let yourself fall back to the pack.
I expect a bit of a bounce back from Posada, as I think a good deal of his offensive woes last year stemmed from having to deal with so many new pitchers. It isn't a coincidence that he was horrible in July at the height of the Redding/Franklin/May experiment and started to settle down once Small and Chacon began to pitch regularly, actually putting up a good September.
shutout
01-11-06, 08:35 AM
I don't like this option kicking in at all. I'd almost say: do everything in your power to prevent it to Torre / Steinbrenner / Cashman. Posada has lost it in my opinion. He isn't of great value to this team anymore. Molina should be better than Posada nowadays. So if it requires Molina to prevent this 2007 option I'm all for it.
surge511
01-11-06, 08:56 AM
The Yankees are trying that this season with Kyle Anson, a 3rd baseman drafted as a college senior this past June. He has excellent OBP, and really has a good eye. Has a solid arm, and the body type to be a catcher.
It did not work out with Nate Phillips, drafted in 2004. But Anson may have a realistic shot at converting.
Hey, Posada was a second baseman at one time in his career, before convertig. But Anson will not be ready for 2-3 years, in any case.
Yeah, I remembered that about Posada, that's why I thought of it. Hopefully Anson can be something behind the plate, but we'll see what happens. We have to do something quickly, because Posada does not have much longer.
dmsimon15
01-11-06, 11:37 AM
Posada's pretty solid behind the plate, but he can't rely on just that to merit the kind of $ he makes. His bat has lost it's punch over the last 3 years. He hits in a line-up that boasts numerous All-Stars, and his lack of offensive production can sometimes be overshadowed. Having two catchers like Molina and Posada on the Yankee roster is just plain overkill and just a waste of $. Look for a possible trade if Jorge continues to struggle at the plate.
Yeah, I remembered that about Posada, that's why I thought of it. Hopefully Anson can be something behind the plate, but we'll see what happens. We have to do something quickly, because Posada does not have much longer.
Still, this season is only a test season for kyle. If he takes to Cathcing, then he probably is 2 more full seasons away. Which means, he is not prepared to help in the Bronx until 2009. So we would need someone for 2007 and 2008.
Perhaps the Yankees get a vet that can hit a bit, and share catching with Stinnett/Nieves/Santos/Irwin Rojas. :(
Posada's pretty solid behind the plate, but he can't rely on just that to merit the kind of $ he makes. His bat has lost it's punch over the last 3 years. He hits in a line-up that boasts numerous All-Stars, and his lack of offensive production can sometimes be overshadowed. Having two catchers like Molina and Posada on the Yankee roster is just plain overkill and just a waste of $. Look for a possible trade if Jorge continues to struggle at the plate.
2 years ago, he had his 3rd best offensive season ever. 3 years ago, he had his best offensive season ever. As noted, last year, in his worst season as a regular, he was still the 4th best offensive catcher in baseball. If you're quick to push him out the door for this offensive performance, then I can't imagine you being happy with whomever replaces him.
Mattpat11
01-11-06, 02:04 PM
Catchers hit .253/.318/.389 last year. There's a long, long way between that and Posada's .262/.352/.430. He was 4th among all catchers in EQA.
. I really think Posada more than anyone was the Alex Rodriguez Honorary Stat Padder of the Year (Dripping with Sarcasm on the A-Rod part). He had the homeruns to put us ahead 8 runs, then two out walks in front of the eight and nine hitter, the countless walks with runners in scoring position in front of bottom of the order, all sorts of things that helped his numbers, yes, but didn't actively help our team.
JavyVazquezIsSick
01-11-06, 05:05 PM
Catchers hit .253/.318/.389 last year. There's a long, long way between that and Posada's .262/.352/.430. He was 4th among all catchers in EQA.
Thats really not that great of a difference, in addition he is a poor defensive catcher. I also bet AL catchers were a lot better than that.
You can't just say that the Yankees don't need offense out of the C spot. It's a big part of what allows the offense to separate itself from that of other teams. When you give up on that, you let yourself fall back to the pack.
Yes you can. No what separates us from the "pack" is a lineup of Jeter, Damon, Giambi, A-Rod, Sheffield, and Matsui. Yes, losing Posada hurts but if he declines like he has been, it won't. In addition if you gain a great defensive catcher but lose some offense, it kind of offsets itself.
I expect a bit of a bounce back from Posada, as I think a good deal of his offensive woes last year stemmed from having to deal with so many new pitchers. It isn't a coincidence that he was horrible in July at the height of the Redding/Franklin/May experiment and started to settle down once Small and Chacon began to pitch regularly, actually putting up a good September.
I expect Posada to be better too, but I disagree with that it had to do with who he was catching for. It totally is a coincidence in my mind. Catching and hitting are two totally different sides of the field, he should be able to concentrate on one without it affecting the other. Also, not to mention Posada has been beyond pathetic in the playoffs. We all know he is tired, but he needs to reach down and do something when it matters the most...
goin for 27
01-11-06, 05:14 PM
Contracts don't exist in a 1 year bubble. If the option kicks in, it's a 6 year, $63M deal. That's 10.5M a year instead of the $10.2 it would have been if the option didn't kick in.
More than a potential grievance, what you have to think about here is your integrity as a ball club and how future players perceive said integrity. Playing time options are based on a player's ability to stay healthy. When you start screwing with that and the player has no physical problems, you open the door to much bigger problems than simply a grievance with that player, but problems with every player you negotiate with who remembers how you treated Posada.
BTW, Molina has serious problems staying healthy for a whole season. If he gets signed, Posada is quite likely to appear in the games he needs anyway.
Disagree. Playing options are based on a players ability to perform at specific levels. Bernie Williams is healthy. The Yanks did not pick up his option because he has declined so. Bernie did not complain, nor should he.
I really hope (and believe) that the Yanks are working to do something so the option on Posada does not kick in. It is pouring big money down the drain.
goin for 27
01-11-06, 05:16 PM
I expect a bit of a bounce back from Posada, as I think a good deal of his offensive woes last year stemmed from having to deal with so many new pitchers. It isn't a coincidence that he was horrible in July at the height of the Redding/Franklin/May experiment and started to settle down once Small and Chacon began to pitch regularly, actually putting up a good September.
I don't expect a bounce, catchers at Posada's age typically decline, and fast.
I don't expect a bounce, catchers at Posada's age typically decline, and fast.
Posada:
1) didn't start catching until he was 21
and
2) didn't catch a lot until he was 28.
I don't expect a bounce, catchers at Posada's age typically decline, and fast.
I fully agree with this. I would be thrilled to see Posada's identical offensive numbers from last year. It was probably Neyer, but about a year ago someone on ESPN took 25 or so catchers from the last several decades and showed their offensive declines. They all fell significantly after the age of 34 or so, with very few exceptions. 36-year old catchers don't typically improve upon what seems to be a slow decline.
My biggest thing with Jorge is that he's simply not a good defensive catcher, and he's possibly the worst hitter of any major player who has had significant at bats in October over the last decade. He is nothing short of an offensive disaster in well over 200 at bats in October- a sure sign that the man is either extremely tired by that time or does not perform well under pressure- likely a combination of the two.
possibly the worst hitter of any major player who has had significant at bats in October over the last decade.
Posada has hit .349/.369 in the postseason. Of the 12 players, including Posada, I can find with 200 postseason AB in the last 10 years or so, Tino Martinez (.321/.351), David Justice (.335/.382), Kenny Lofton (.322/.354), and Renteria (.328/.319) have all been worse than Posada.
We have enough problems with trying to draw any long term conclusions from a whole season of at bats, let alone 200.
goin for 27
01-11-06, 06:30 PM
Posada:
1) didn't start catching until he was 21
and
2) didn't catch a lot until he was 28.
Correct, but he is still turning 34 during the season. I don't care if he played first base until he was 30. Catching takes a toll, and it is much harder to heal and refresh when you are 33, 34, than when you are 28,29.
Anything is possible, but I don't expect a bounce for Posada. Let's not forget, he has declined in all of these cateories; AVG, OBP, SLG and OPS for 2 straight seasons. It is not like he had an off year, or half a season....
Correct, but he is still turning 34 during the season. I don't care if he played first base until he was 30. Catching takes a toll, and it is much harder to heal and refresh when you are 33, 34, than when you are 28,29.
Anything is possible, but I don't expect a bounce for Posada. Let's not forget, he has declined in all of these cateories; AVG, OBP, SLG and OPS for 2 straight seasons. It is not like he had an off year, or half a season....
The funny thing is, he might have had the best September of his career last year at age 33.
Look, those 2 seasons were also his 1st and 3rd best. I'm not saying that he's going to bounce back to either level, just that it is unlikely that he has another .169/.259/.324 month that oddly correlates with having to deal with 10 different starting pitchers, 6 of whom were new to the organization (yes, the Yankees actually used 10 different starters in July).
BronxBombers2005
01-11-06, 07:30 PM
I just hope he gets back to his "normal" like in 2003, that was a great year for him, almost an MVP type season.
I just hope he gets back to his "normal" like in 2003, that was a great year for him, almost an MVP type season.
2003 wasn't normal. It was his best year ever. 2001 or 2002 would be more 'normal'.
I just hope he gets back to his "normal" like in 2003, that was a great year for him, almost an MVP type season.
2003 wasn't normal. It was his best year ever. 2001 or 2002 would be more 'normal'.
I have a feeling there's gonna be a ton of people complaining about Posada's salary a year from now.
Mattpat11
01-11-06, 07:59 PM
Posada has hit .349/.369 in the postseason. Of the 12 players, including Posada, I can find with 200 postseason AB in the last 10 years or so, Tino Martinez (.321/.351), David Justice (.335/.382), Kenny Lofton (.322/.354), and Renteria (.328/.319) have all been worse than Posada.
.I know is evil to say this and all, but especially in the playoffs, you need to at least occasionally get basehits. Walks are nice and all, but if its all you're doing (and with a .229 BA and .369 SLG, all he's doing is walking) you aren't helping the cause. At all.
Mystic Merlyn
01-11-06, 08:03 PM
I know is evil to say this and all, but especially in the playoffs, you need to at least occasionally get basehits. Walks are nice and all, but if its all you're doing (and with a .229 BA and .369 SLG, all he's doing is walking) you aren't helping the cause. At all.
That is not true at all.
Mattpat11
01-11-06, 08:13 PM
That is not true at all. I'm probably wrong, but I firmly believe that there's more to baseball than drawing walks. A player that has no slugging, no BA but golly gee does he ever walk, doesn't help the team. Look at Giambi of April and May or Mark Bellhorn all year.
I don't agree with people who view BA as the be all and end all, but I disagree that On base is as well. Contrary to what people say, a walk is not as good as a hit in all situations (second and third and two out, for instance) and is never as good as a double, triple or homerun.
Mystic Merlyn
01-11-06, 08:20 PM
I'm probably wrong, but I firmly believe that there's more to baseball than drawing walks. A player that has no slugging, no BA but golly gee does he ever walk, doesn't help the team. Look at Giambi of April and May or Mark Bellhorn all year.
I don't agree with people who view BA as the be all and end all, but I disagree that On base is as well. Contrary to what people say, a walk is not as good as a hit in all situations (second and third and two out, for instance) and is never as good as a double, triple or homerun.
A player who walks at a good clip is most definitely a benefit to the team. They are increasing the chances of their team to score a run, plain and simple. I believe there are coefficients that do suggest a single is better than a walk, but this is because hits are infinitely more helpful in situational events (like runners on).
YankeePride1967
01-11-06, 08:30 PM
I'm probably wrong, but I firmly believe that there's more to baseball than drawing walks. A player that has no slugging, no BA but golly gee does he ever walk, doesn't help the team. Look at Giambi of April and May or Mark Bellhorn all year.
I don't agree with people who view BA as the be all and end all, but I disagree that On base is as well. Contrary to what people say, a walk is not as good as a hit in all situations (second and third and two out, for instance) and is never as good as a double, triple or homerun.
I think there is problems with giving too much creedence to any one stat. But the reason I give OPS and more so OPS+ the most creedence is that it acknowledges a walk means something. Furthermore, it also acknowledges that a double means more than a single. Batting Average to me is a stat I rarely look at as it totally ignores walks and considers a single and a HR to be equivalent to each other. And BTW, Giambi was still walking in June forward as well.
I know is evil to say this and all, but especially in the playoffs, you need to at least occasionally get basehits. Walks are nice and all, but if its all you're doing (and with a .229 BA and .369 SLG, all he's doing is walking) you aren't helping the cause. At all.
That really wasn't the point. Gold set up some parameters under which he thought Posada was 'possibly the worst' at something. He wasn't. Like I said, though, I really don't think 200 or 300 AB is enough to draw any hard conclusion.
I would, however, point out a couple of things:
Walks aren't outs. Outs are bad. If you never make outs, you just keep scoring. Obviously, hitting for power is important, just less important than not making an out.
Take a look at these run expetency charts.
http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html
These are the actual number of runs scored from 1999-2002 in each base and out situation. Not making an out tends to have a greater impact on how many runs a teams score than whether the batter at the plate ends up on 1B or 2B with no out, for example. Again, the point is not that power doesn't matter, it just matters a little less. This is part of why improvements on OPS all adjust the relative value of OBP up.
More than that, you have to remember that hits don't tend to come on balls outside of the strike zone. This is even more so with power, as you don't drive the ball a foot outside. Walks are often a harbinger of the other things you are looking for. So sure, 1st and 3rd with no outs is better than 1st and 2nd with no outs, but the difference between the two is not nearly as big as the difference between 1st and 2nd with no outs and 2nd with 1 out.
Mattpat11
01-11-06, 09:29 PM
I think there is problems with giving too much creedence to any one stat. But the reason I give OPS and more so OPS+ .I'm not even talking about OPS. Its the people that act like all you need is OBP and not even slugging.
Hell, I'm not even railing against On base percentage. Of course its valuable. But my main problem is with people who seem to think that if a guy shows up and gets his 80 walks and does nothing else, his job is done. There were people who were sticking up for Mark Bellhorn on the Red Sox this year. Hell, there were people who were praising A-Rod's playoffs. I just think that somewhere along the way, the walk went from completely underrated to the only thing a baseball player needs to know how to do.
More than that, you have to remember that hits don't tend to come on balls outside of the strike zone. This is even more so with power, as you don't drive the ball a foot outside. Walks are often a harbinger of the other things you are looking for. So sure, 1st and 3rd with no outs is better than 1st and 2nd with no outs, but the difference between the two is not nearly as big as the difference between 1st and 2nd with no outs and 2nd with 1 out. Its not even situations like that that drive me nuts. Its when we'd have a runner on third and two out, and people act like a walk gets the job done. No, it just sets up the same situation for a worse hitter.
Its not even situations like that that drive me nuts. Its when we'd have a runner on third and two out, and people act like a walk gets the job done. No, it just sets up the same situation for a worse hitter.
It isn't a hitter's job to 'make something happen' out of bad pitches. If there is nothing to hit, the choice is either between swinging wildly and making an out or taking your walk. Personally, I'll take 1st and 3rd 2 outs with a weaker hitter up over the inning being over every time.
Mattpat11
01-11-06, 10:04 PM
It isn't a hitter's job to 'make something happen' out of bad pitches. . I doubt every situation like this results in a four pitch walk. More often than not (especially with guys like Posada and Giambi) the desire to "make em throw pitches" results in the batter taking one, sometimes two fat pitches right down the middle.
I doubt every situation like this results in a four pitch walk. More often than not (especially with guys like Posada and Giambi) the desire to "make em throw pitches" results in the batter taking one, sometimes two fat pitches right down the middle.
That would depend on what kind of pitch they were looking for and what spot in the strike zone they hit the ball hard in. This is why players who walk also tend to be the ones who hit for power, etc. It is about hitting your pitch, and when you aren't doing that, you are likely making outs. The desire to 'make the pitcher throw pitches' really has very little to do with it. All of these guys will swing at the first pitch if its the one they are looking for.
Posada has hit .349/.369 in the postseason. Of the 12 players, including Posada, I can find with 200 postseason AB in the last 10 years or so, Tino Martinez (.321/.351), David Justice (.335/.382), Kenny Lofton (.322/.354), and Renteria (.328/.319) have all been worse than Posada.
We have enough problems with trying to draw any long term conclusions from a whole season of at bats, let alone 200.
It's actually 293 now. And, the batting average is a horrendous .229. If Posada has had respectable postseason numbers, then A-rod had a respectable postseason this past year. Posada, in 293 at bats, has hit .229 with 8 hr, 29 rbi and 72k.
I agree that getting on base is extremely important, but considering his spot in the order and the amount of runners on ahead of him, coupled with the quality of hitter behind him (especially in the WS), he's been universally atrocious. He's the worst baserunner on the team, and the bottom of the order hits behind him- if EVER you can somewhat discount the ability to walk, it is Posada in the postseason.
My point is that across the board, he's been signficantly worse in the postseason than he has in the regular season. Over this many years and close to 300 at bats, I do think you can determine when or if someone struggles with added pressure. This, coupled again with the fact that he is a catcher approaching his mid 30's (and if you make the argument that he started catching late, you can make a similar argument that he typically works 10-15% more per year because they have usually gone deep into October), and I am not thrilled with Jorge Posada as the everyday catcher.
That being said, he shoudl still produce offensively better than a replacement-type catcher, and they are stuck with his contract. Posada is not really one of their bigger problems right now.
Posada has hit .349/.369 in the postseason. Of the 12 players, including Posada, I can find with 200 postseason AB in the last 10 years or so, Tino Martinez (.321/.351), David Justice (.335/.382), Kenny Lofton (.322/.354), and Renteria (.328/.319) have all been worse than Posada.
We have enough problems with trying to draw any long term conclusions from a whole season of at bats, let alone 200.
They are all in the same range, and are all horrible. I could make a case that Posada's been either better or worse than each of them- but they've all been pretty bad. Here's a thing, though- outside of Renteria last year, each of those guys either added something defensively or were ok. Posada, while stinking at the plate, hurts the club defensively.
They are all in the same range, and are all horrible. I could make a case that Posada's been either better or worse than each of them- but they've all been pretty bad. Here's a thing, though- outside of Renteria last year, each of those guys either added something defensively or were ok. Posada, while stinking at the plate, hurts the club defensively.
What argument could you make that those guys have hit better than Posada given everything we know about how runs score.
It might sound really good when you say that Posada is possibly the worst playoff hitter in the last 10 years with at least 200 AB and it might be a statement that helps bolster your belief set, but it runs counter to the facts, and that's before we even get into applying meaning to half a season of AB. I'm not arguing that Posada has been good in the postseason, but when you say he's the worst, it should at least be close, not middle of the pack.
I'm sure I sound like an ass here, but all I'm asking is that people look this stuff up and lay off the truthiness.
Panamaniac42
01-12-06, 09:32 PM
I don't have as much of a problem with Pos as most people do. Granted, he's not worth 12 mil a year, but such was the market at the time of the deal. I think we're a little bit spoiled with him.
Molina is vastly overrated and a big fat injury risk.
goin for 27
01-13-06, 07:19 AM
I don't have as much of a problem with Pos as most people do. Granted, he's not worth 12 mil a year, but such was the market at the time of the deal. I think we're a little bit spoiled with him.
Molina is vastly overrated and a big fat injury risk.
I agree with you that he is still a decent catcher. The issue is all about money though.
Last year, Posada compared similarly (OPS, and other) with guys like Greg Zaun and Joe Mauer. These guys made $925K and $350K respectively. Now clearly Posada cashed in during a better market, but if there is a way to stop the bleeding, the Yanks need to try.
I agree with you that he is still a decent catcher. The issue is all about money though.
Last year, Posada compared similarly (OPS, and other) with guys like Greg Zaun and Joe Mauer. These guys made $925K and $350K respectively. Now clearly Posada cashed in during a better market, but if there is a way to stop the bleeding, the Yanks need to try.
And Jhonny Peralta got $316K to hit better than Jeter. When you start trying to compare the salaries of pre-arb players to to post-free agent players, it's pretty easy to come up with disparities. You just have to remember that Posada once got paid the league minimum too.
Panamaniac42
01-13-06, 10:48 AM
And Jhonny Peralta got $316K to hit better than Jeter. When you start trying to compare the salaries of pre-arb players to to post-free agent players, it's pretty easy to come up with disparities. You just have to remember that Posada once got paid the league minimum too.
yep. Someday Peralta, Mauer, etc are going to be making more money than they ever dreamed of.
Munson's 'Stash
01-14-06, 04:52 PM
I think anyone who thinks Possada is going to rebound to great effect next year are deluding themselves. The aging pattern for catchers is the most brutal of all positions, and is generally a shortened peak followed by a quick drop off the cliff. He might get better than last year, but if so, I'd bet only just.
Taking that into account, the Yankees should do whatever is in their power to keep his option from vesting. Molina has been left out to dry, so at this point he might be available on a cheap(er) deal than most thought he'd come away with at the start of the offseason. Its certainly a risk whether he'll be able to play the 103 games required to keep Jorge's option from vesting, but it's worth the gamble.
You know who's going to be very rich when he hits FA? Brian Schnieder.
goin for 27
01-14-06, 06:49 PM
And Jhonny Peralta got $316K to hit better than Jeter. When you start trying to compare the salaries of pre-arb players to to post-free agent players, it's pretty easy to come up with disparities. You just have to remember that Posada once got paid the league minimum too.
No doubt. However, the Yanks are on the hook for a huge option if Posada vests. The idea is to keep him from vesting, then go get a league minimum guy (or a bit more) to replace him. The production stays the same, and you have all that cash to spend elsewhere.
I fully understand WHY the players I tossed out make much less, that does not change the premise that Posada should be blocked from the option if possible.
JavyVazquezIsSick
01-14-06, 07:23 PM
The idea is to keep him from vesting, then go get a league minimum guy (or a bit more) to replace him. The production stays the same, and you have all that cash to spend elsewhere.
Where are you getting a league minimum guy who has the production of Posada?
guidry36
01-15-06, 04:34 AM
Cashman said, "Posada is one of the premier catchers in the game even though his numbers might be declining. If he's with us the next two years, we'll be comfortable with that. My concern isn't what am I going to do having Jorge. My concern is what are we going to do when we don't have Jorge."
from NY Post 1/15/06
Amen.
ICEBERG18
01-15-06, 07:21 AM
Cashman said, "Posada is one of the premier catchers in the game even though his numbers might be declining. If he's with us the next two years, we'll be comfortable with that. My concern isn't what am I going to do having Jorge. My concern is what are we going to do when we don't have Jorge."
from NY Post 1/15/06
Amen.
Actually, that's from the NY Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/15/sports/baseball/15chass.ready.html?pagewanted=all
guidry36
01-15-06, 10:46 AM
Actually, that's from the NY Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/15/sports/baseball/15chass.ready.html?pagewanted=all
:D :D Oops....long night.....:D :D .......
Once again, nothing short of injury will prevent Posada's 2007 option from being vested.
ring403
01-15-06, 10:51 AM
:D :D Oops....long night.....:D :D .......
This is, in part, why we ask that people provide links when quoting from news articles. :)
guidry36
01-15-06, 01:38 PM
This is, in part, why we ask that people provide links when quoting from news articles. :)
Sorry...will do....this lifetime Yankee and Bronco fan was up until 6 AM....a little giddy, to say the least, over the first playoff win since Elway retired;) . Let's just say I am dead set against any attempt to void the 2007 option on Posada's contract.
longtimeyankeefan
01-15-06, 01:50 PM
Actually, that's from the NY Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/15/sports/baseball/15chass.ready.html?pagewanted=all
Here is the section of the article that I find most interesting:
The theory behind the idea that the Yankees would trade the 34-year-old Posada stems from the option in his contract for the 2007 season. If he is the starting catcher in 81 games next season, the option becomes guaranteed for $12 million and he receives an option year in 2008 with $4 million guaranteed.
For some reason, I thought we had been talking in terms of 1) somewhere in the sixties for games and 2) games caught, not starting catcher.
surge511
01-15-06, 03:34 PM
Maybe he has to catch at least half of the games in the last year of the contract for the option to vest...
If it were half the games, signing Molina would be much more manageable. Maybe to a 1 or 2 year deal? Posada could split the DH duty with Bernie this year, and be the backup catcher.
GoYanks
01-15-06, 06:36 PM
While I've never been the biggest Jorge fan, he's surprised me in what he's brought to the team over the past decade. This has made me a fan.
Still, the guy's never been a great catcher - offense was his strength (and I have some clips/stats to share with anyone who doesn't believe that he's come through in the clutch. Not recently, but he has.
I HATED losing Navarro, but this team really needs a catcher in training. In the meantime, Jorge's fine.
guidry36
01-15-06, 07:44 PM
While I've never been the biggest Jorge fan, he's surprised me in what he's brought to the team over the past decade. This has made me a fan.
Still, the guy's never been a great catcher - offense was his strength (and I have some clips/stats to share with anyone who doesn't believe that he's come through in the clutch. Not recently, but he has.
I HATED losing Navarro, but this team really needs a catcher in training. In the meantime, Jorge's fine.
Agreed. Unfortunately there doesn't appear to be a starting material C in the minors. The 2007 free agent class for catchers doesn't look good, but perhaps there will be a match on the trade front who can back up in 07' and start in 2008. Molina remains an option, though there won't be much playing time at C this year. It's a stretch..... but perhaps a back-loaded 3 or 4 year deal would work (though at this point he probably wants a 1-year deal with the opportunity to be a free agent again next year). On the other hand, a 4-year deal could prove to be excessive. It wouldn't hurt to make Molina an offer.... most likely the Yankees go with Posada and Stinnett for 2006.
JeterRodriguezSheff
01-15-06, 08:56 PM
This thread is proof that we are spoiled. Posada was still one of the best hitting catchers in baseball last year, we can deal with him for 2 more years. Besides if we weasel our way out of his option, no FA is going to sign here, oh yeah and Torre would never do it. If we could trade him then ok but nobody is going to take him at that price.
freebubba
01-18-06, 09:34 AM
I do not even remember who posted it, but I swear I read a post that said "Posada is a SOLID defensive catcher." Sir, put the bong down and step away from the table. Posada is terrible defensively. His passed balls are sickening, and he absolutely cannot block the plate. As far as handling pitchers, the guy does not even call his own game. I know he is one of the good guys, blah, blah, blah, but stick a fork in him.
This goingto sound awful and I will be appropriately flamed for saying it, but if the Yanks refuse to limit his games, we need a tread mill accident. Nothing horrific mind you, but just enough. Aaron Boone played last year, right?
Missed this but felt like responding
Thats really not that great of a difference, in addition he is a poor defensive catcher. I also bet AL catchers were a lot better than that.
39 points of OBP and 43 points of SLG isn't a lot?
Oh, and AL catchers had the same OBP and slugged 5 points higher than NL catcher...not a big difference at all. I'm not sure why that even matters, though.
Yes you can. No what separates us from the "pack" is a lineup of Jeter, Damon, Giambi, A-Rod, Sheffield, and Matsui. Yes, losing Posada hurts but if he declines like he has been, it won't. In addition if you gain a great defensive catcher but lose some offense, it kind of offsets itself.
Offense at non-traditional offensive positions is exactly how you get better than other good teams. That doesn't mean you can't keep up with them at 1B, LF, and RF, but with positions like C, there tends to be a clump at the top with just a few very very good hitters versus more of a complete range at the more offenisive positions. If you happen to get one of those few guys, that's a major advantage that another team can't just walk out and find something close to.
As for defense, yes, a better defensive catcher can make up some of the difference, but it is only going to be a small percentage of that. You just can't generate 60 runs above replacement on defense like Posada used to do on offense.
I expect Posada to be better too, but I disagree with that it had to do with who he was catching for. It totally is a coincidence in my mind. Catching and hitting are two totally different sides of the field, he should be able to concentrate on one without it affecting the other.
The Yankees used 10 starters in the month of July alone, many of them new to the team. This means that the catcher needs to work offline with each of these guys, and it goes beyond the normal catcher and pitcher meetings that tend to happen before a game/series and that is inherently time that, for example, you can't spend in the batting cage. This means that, during the game, the catcher must concentrate on working with said new pitchers both on the mound and in between innings. Catcher is not like other defensive positions. You can't leave it
in the field. I doubt it's a coincidence.
Cold Shad
01-20-06, 09:53 PM
I think anyone who thinks Possada is going to rebound to great effect next year are deluding themselves. The aging pattern for catchers is the most brutal of all positions, and is generally a shortened peak followed by a quick drop off the cliff. He might get better than last year, but if so, I'd bet only just.
Taking that into account, the Yankees should do whatever is in their power to keep his option from vesting. Molina has been left out to dry, so at this point he might be available on a cheap(er) deal than most thought he'd come away with at the start of the offseason. Its certainly a risk whether he'll be able to play the 103 games required to keep Jorge's option from vesting, but it's worth the gamble.
You know who's going to be very rich when he hits FA? Brian Schnieder.
I think Schneider just Signed for four years.
Munson's 'Stash
01-21-06, 02:24 PM
I think Schneider just Signed for four years.
D'OH!
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