View Full Version : 20 game winner in 2006?
RhodyYanksFan
12-27-05, 02:00 PM
The Yankees haven't had a 20 game winner since Andy Pettitte in 2003. Randy Johnson is the only pitcher to eclipse the 15 win mark since then. Will they have someone win 20 in 2006?
SupaYankee13
12-27-05, 02:09 PM
No. We don't really have a pitcher that can blow by pitchers with the exception of POSSIBLY Randy Johnson, and.....I don't know. I'm not even looking at stats because I just feel in my gut that we aren't gonna have a 20 game winner. I know Randy came close with 17 last year, so MAYBE he can get 20, but.....I just don't see it happening, sorry.
Hopefully I'm proved wrong this year, though :D
JeffWeaverFan
12-27-05, 02:15 PM
If he stays healthy, Chien-Ming Wang!
HouseThatRingsBuild
12-27-05, 04:07 PM
Neither of them
webassign
12-27-05, 04:28 PM
I'll be optimistic and say all of them. :o
Babe Rules
12-27-05, 06:10 PM
Randy Johnson will win 20+ games.
DontHateOnNumber2
12-27-05, 07:26 PM
I think Wang, a healthy Pavano, and RJ can do it. Chacon if he gets the offense he got when he was first acquired.
Yankees13
12-27-05, 07:30 PM
The Yankees haven't had a 20 game winner since Andy Pettitte in 2003. Randy Johnson is the only pitcher to eclipse the 15 win mark since then. Will they have someone win 20 in 2006?
I give Johnson an outside, but realistic, chance. Don't see anyone else possibly doing it.
Evil Empire
12-27-05, 07:37 PM
Clemens. ;)
ryanthe13th
12-27-05, 08:31 PM
I think that Johnson can do it this year. I casted a vote of confidence his way. He's corrected his mechanical issues and will be working with Kerrigan the entire year this time, versus only half a season in 2005.
Roger Clemens...haha, just kiddin guys
I don't think at all that it'll be Chacon, but he fast became one of my favorite Yankees last year, so I'll say him just for the heck of it
njyankeesfan
12-27-05, 10:15 PM
If Wang stays healthy, there might be a slight possibility. If Aaron Small wasn't just a "lightning in a bottle" situation, I think he has the potential to have a great full season.
Now, I think Andy Pettitte, if he continues as he did last season, could be a 20 game winner. In my opinion, I think age is catching up to both Clemens and Randy Johnson.
hellonewman
12-27-05, 10:49 PM
If Aaron Small wasn't just a "lightning in a bottle" situation.He was. :(
I voted Wang, although really Johnson has the best shot — but Randy is too much of a "chalk" pick for my tastes. I do predict Wang will be 1st or 2nd on the staff in wins this season.
Mattpat11
12-27-05, 10:50 PM
Johnson, and hopefully Mussina
Mr. Mxylsplk
12-27-05, 10:54 PM
I'm really surprised there are so many votes for pitchers not named Johnson. I doubt he'll do it, but I think there's basically no chance anyone else does.
panicfan
12-27-05, 11:11 PM
No, no one in our rotation is good enough, or durable enough.
With Mel gone, and under the assumption that his health holds up, probably Randy Johnson.
Kluivert4Ever
12-27-05, 11:26 PM
With the way Torre uses his relievers, Fansworth;)
ZYanksRule
12-28-05, 12:16 AM
RJ, Wang, Chacon all have a shot at it. If RJ can return to form, Wang if healthy all year, and I definetely think Chacon is getting ready to really break out and become a star in this league.
flymick24
12-29-05, 03:08 PM
johnson won 17 games in a crappy season. if he is even just slightly better in 2006, he can easily win 20.
i think mussina will also finally get over the hump and win 20. contract year, after all.
flymick24
12-29-05, 03:11 PM
i don't understand how people think chacon will win 20 games... he's good, but i don't see him repeating his 2005 by any means. maybe if he somehow regains his low 90's fastball (thus making his off-speed and breaking stuff more effective than it already is), he can win around 12-15 games, but 20 is a longshot, considering his low K rate.
boo_427
12-29-05, 03:12 PM
Why isn't Kevin Brown an option?
Nuke LaLoosh
12-29-05, 03:28 PM
I think the only real possibility is someone like Pavano staing healthy and finally reaching his potential. I would also give Chacaon an outside shot, but not worth a bet/vote. Wang still needs seasoning, maybe 2007. Small may contribute, but lets be real. RJ will contribute, but 20 at 43, unlikely to say the least. Wright will need to stop breaking mirrors, walking under ladders and whatever other bad mojo stuff he does just to stay healthy enough for 20 starts. As for Moose, I love what he has given the Yanks over the years, but at this point I am hoping his ERA stays under 20.
johnson won 17 games in a crappy season. if he is even just slightly better in 2006, he can easily win 20.
i think mussina will also finally get over the hump and win 20. contract year, after all.
i'm sick of considering mussina for 20 wins, it's been done year in and year out ...frankly, the guy hasn't done it in his best years, and those days are long gone
NewEraYanks2527
12-29-05, 03:39 PM
I say Randy for sure and I'm also going to say Chacon, I think he is going to have a great year for us.
YankClipper5
12-29-05, 03:42 PM
If Randy is healthy I think he wins 20 easy. I think he is past his mechanics issues of last year and anyone capable of being number 1 on a staff and healthy over a season should win 20 with the revamped pen and improved lineup, IMO.
destiNY
12-29-05, 03:45 PM
The Yankees haven't had a 20 game winner since Andy Pettitte in 2003. Randy Johnson is the only pitcher to eclipse the 15 win mark since then. Will they have someone win 20 in 2006?
If we don't have one then we will not go far in the playoffs. There needs to be a dominant pitcher on this staff for us to win the WS.
I can imagine RJ being more consistent overall, but still only winning 17 games. A lot of this depends on how effective the bullpen is. If they give it up like last year - then pray for at least a 15 game winner.
I'd be surprised if anyone won 18.
Saxmania
12-29-05, 04:21 PM
If we don't have one then we will not go far in the playoffs. There needs to be a dominant pitcher on this staff for us to win the WS.
I disagree. Which dominant starter did the Anaheim Angels have in 2002? Or: Which Yankee won 20 games in 1999 and 2000?
Of the last 10 World Series winners, only 4 have had a 20-game winner on their staff. In 2003, no Florida starter won more than 14 games. The whole 'dominant starter in the postseason' requirement is a myth.
Be seeing you,
Saxmania
drjeckyl
12-29-05, 04:27 PM
I typically don't associate the Yanks with 20 gane winners. They've had only 5 in the last 20 years, and 4 in the last 10.
03 - Pettitte
01 - Clemmens
98 - Cone
96 - Pettitte
85 - Guidry
But, for 06, my sentimental choice is Moose because it's his last year and he's never won 20 (19 x 2, 18 x 3, and 17 x 2)! More realistic choice, RJ. Most likely scenario, no one, and I think it's too optimistic expect anyone to come along in 07 as likely either.
Yankees1962
12-29-05, 04:28 PM
I disagree. Which dominant starter did the Anaheim Angels have in 2002? Or: Which Yankee won 20 games in 1999 and 2000?
Of the last 10 World Series winners, only 4 have had a 20-game winner on their staff. In 2003, no Florida starter won more than 14 games. The whole 'dominant starter in the postseason' requirement is a myth.
Be seeing you,
Saxmania
Usually, you need a dominant starter in the playoffs in which the games he starts during that time helps to carry the team to the WS title. Granted, that pitcher's dominance might only be for that short period of time.
Saxmania
12-29-05, 04:37 PM
Usually, you need a dominant starter in the playoffs in which the games he starts during that time helps to carry the team to the WS title. Granted, that pitcher's dominance might only be for that short period of time.
Okay, although of course that wasn't the point to which I was responding. In a postseason, three or four good starts in a row becomes 'dominance', which makes it a lot easier to achieve. One hot starter in October is pretty difficult to predict, if you don't make it a precondition that he was good between April and September - so hard to build a team around.
For the sake of argument, though, the Anaheim Angels' most dominant starter in 2002 was John Lackey, who threw 3 scoreless innings of relief in the ALDS, one excellent start in the ALCS, then allowed 6 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings in the World Series. If that's 'dominance', then anyone can be dominant. Just to bury this particular myth.
Be seeing you,
Saxmania
Yankees1962
12-29-05, 04:50 PM
Okay, although of course that wasn't the point to which I was responding. In a postseason, three or four good starts in a row becomes 'dominance', which makes it a lot easier to achieve. One hot starter in October is pretty difficult to predict, if you don't make it a precondition that he was good between April and September - so hard to build a team around.
For the sake of argument, though, the Anaheim Angels' most dominant starter in 2002 was John Lackey, who threw 3 scoreless innings of relief in the ALDS, one excellent start in the ALCS, then allowed 6 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings in the World Series. If that's 'dominance', then anyone can be dominant. Just to bury this particular myth.
Be seeing you,
Saxmania
I said usually not all the time in the playoffs.:)
Johnny O
12-29-05, 05:05 PM
None, but it's not important whether we have a 20 GW or not.
PettittesPrincess
12-29-05, 05:12 PM
Probably none.
Mariano226
12-29-05, 10:00 PM
hopefully randy will settle in during his second year as a yankee a la arod, plus everybody will get even more run support than they got last season. i give randy a legit bid at 20, maybe chacon too.
Dr. Gonzo
12-29-05, 10:04 PM
I have been waiting for a year, with the type of offense the yanks have, and the ability of the pitching staff, that they would have a few 20 game winners.
I will hope again this year.
Spiker101
12-29-05, 10:16 PM
I didn't vote because there was no category "all of the above." And I'm only being semi-facetious. With this offense any Yankee starter who stays healthy and posts an ERA of about 4.00 stands a decent chance of winning 20. RJ is probably the most likely but Mussina, Wang, Pavano and Chacon are all capable of putting up a 4.00. On the other hand, the probablity of any starter staying healthy for 35 starts is problematic.
JfromJersey
12-30-05, 12:20 PM
Call me crazy, but I think Chacon has a shot at it. I think he is going to have a great year.
DiMaggio5CF
12-30-05, 12:27 PM
No one is a lock, but with 17 wins in what many have considered an off-year, Randy Johnson has a shot at winning 20 in 2007.
I'm not completely confident in Johnson, but a more calm second season should result in three more wins or so, assuming he stays healthy.
I think he's a candidate for an A-Rod-like second-year jump, although the age is a factor with him, unlike Rodriguez.
BRNXBMRS
12-30-05, 12:45 PM
I am going to say Chacon. As long as the mid relief guys can get people out.
YankeeStripes
12-30-05, 12:48 PM
RJ 20-8
Moose 14-11
Pavano 13-7
Wang 15-10
Chacon 22-5
Smithers
12-30-05, 12:50 PM
theres no doubt that if johnson can stay healthy, he will win 20. he had a horrible year (well horrible for him) last year, and still won 17.
Smithers
12-30-05, 12:51 PM
RJ 20-8
Moose 14-11
Pavano 13-7
Wang 15-10
Chacon 22-5
id take some wins from chacon and losses from wang. 84 wins from your rotation seems high too, although i dont know the norm.
Hitman23
12-30-05, 12:54 PM
:lol: no
drjeckyl
12-30-05, 01:07 PM
RJ 20-8
Moose 14-11
Pavano 13-7
Wang 15-10
Chacon 22-5
It's rare for a Yankeeee team to have more than one 20 game winner.... I think it was last done in 78; Guidry and Ed Figuroa.
Hitman23
12-30-05, 01:22 PM
I'll be happy if RJ makes 20 healthy starts. I'll just take 20 quality starts. I don't think he's winning 20.
I'll be happy if RJ makes 20 healthy starts. I'll just take 20 quality starts. I don't think he's winning 20.I'll take that as well. Maybe he'll go 20-0 in those starts? :cool:
Blackout806
12-30-05, 05:59 PM
jaret wright has 4 votes? hahahhhaahha
Matsui55
12-30-05, 07:03 PM
Johnson with healthy is very likely to win 20.
Just a note- Mussina has never won 20 games, and I don't see why he'd start to do so at 36. I'll guess he pulls up at 17.
The others, I'd be happy if two of them got 14-15 wins and the last one got 12-13 wins.
With the pen we have, we should be able to get 20-22 wins all together from them.
So lets say we get 21, 17, 15, 14 and 13 wins from the starters and 20 from the pen- that's a total of 100 wins. That should be a playoff spot.
JavyVazquezIsSick
12-30-05, 07:22 PM
I can't see Moose winning anything over 15 games. Him being completely healthy next season is enough of a reach. He's been nothing but an average pitcher the last two years...
I don't think there's any doubt in my mind that every MLB Team will win at least 20 games this year.
Mystic Merlyn
12-30-05, 09:19 PM
Johnson is the only one who has a shot at it IMO (I think he will get it too).
the_coach
12-30-05, 09:37 PM
Johnson is the only one that has a shot...the thought that Wang, Chacon, etc. will win 20 games is laughable.
ryanthe13th
12-30-05, 10:19 PM
I really wish Moose could reach down and get 20 wins. It's his last year probably in the Bronx and I like the guy a lot.
I don't think there's any doubt in my mind that every MLB Team will win at least 20 games this year.
Not that I'd mind seeing a season where one team doesn't win 20 games... it'd make for an interesting radio broadcast indeed, listening to their games. :)
Yankees Empire
01-01-06, 12:17 AM
I don't see anybody on this staff winning twenty games. Questions of health and/or age and/or effectiveness cloud each of our starters.
Stashed_in_the_South
01-01-06, 12:45 AM
I don't see anyone on the current staff winning 20.
However, it's not out of the question, because wins are a function of run support, and I believe that the 2006 Yankees are going to score an average of 6+ runs per game and 1000+ overall.
That's going to accomplish two things that make it more likely that a starter will get to 20 victories:
1) Early, large leads will allow an aging starting staff to relax a bit and throw more strikes, meaning fewer overall pitches, and deeper starts.
2) Low-scoring tied games in the sixth or seventh (which lead to the bullpen and starter no-decisions) will be reduced.
My predictions are as follows, with a quick reasoning for each:
1) Johnson: 17-21 wins, best shot. He was actually stronger in the second half, and will most benefit from early leads because he is best when he can throw strikes and let them try to hit the pitch. He'll be able to rely upon the offense to bail him out and won't have to worry as much about trying to nibble in lieu of allowing a single run or two.
2) Mussina: 14-17 wins; I'm not that optimistic about him; he seems to have hit the age/injury wall, and needs to be on a strict pitch-count, in my opinion. I expect at least one, if not two, trips to the DL as they try to stretch him out for the season.
3) Pavano: 15-20 wins. The big, big question mark. He's done it before (won 20), he's seasoned in New York now, and he's going to have a lot of early leads to calm him down, kill the "yips" he seemed to get last year.
4) Chacon: 14-17 wins. I'm not as optimistic about him, for this reason: He reminds me of Doyle Alexander in Detroit back in '84... came outta nowhere from the NL and went undefeated (9-0) to bail his team through to the end and the division win. Without Chacon's totally over-achieving performance in 2005, the Yanks don't win the Division... and maybe not even the wildcard. But Alexander did nothing similar the next season as teams got a full look at him and his stuff, and I see a similar pattern that may pertain to Chacon.
5) Wang- still too young and possibly injury prone to press.
Irabu's Son
01-01-06, 01:40 AM
My predictions for RJ for 2005 were asinine. Something like 27-3, 1.75 ERA or something. For '06, let's go 20-8, 3.10.
CalYankeeFan
01-01-06, 06:25 AM
Why isn't Kevin Brown an option?
He's gone, and even if he wasn't he'd sneeze and put himself on the DL.
He's gone, and even if he wasn't he'd sneeze and put himself on the DL.That was Sosa.
CalYankeeFan
01-01-06, 08:19 AM
That was Sosa.
I know Sosa actually did it, I'm just saying Brown is injury prone...I think the best one he had was hurting his back playing with his son.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/dodgers/2002-06-10-brown-surgery.htm
I know Sosa actually did it, I'm just saying Brown is injury prone...I think the best one he had was hurting his back playing with his son.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/dodgers/2002-06-10-brown-surgery.htmI would have thought punching the wall would take the cake.
CalYankeeFan
01-01-06, 08:42 AM
I would have thought punching the wall would take the cake.
No, that was just stupid.....anybody could bust their hand if they had a short-circuit in the brain and punched a wall...he was prone to injuring himself doing "normal" things...
BillBuckner
01-01-06, 11:06 AM
Call me crazy, but I went with Pavano.
CalYankeeFan
01-01-06, 01:20 PM
Call me crazy, but I went with Pavano.
you asked for it....crazy
The potential is there, and I hope you're right! Hopefully he can stay healthy...
Mr. Mxylsplk
01-01-06, 03:24 PM
However, it's not out of the question, because wins are a function of run support, and I believe that the 2006 Yankees are going to score an average of 6+ runs per game and 1000+ overall.
The yanks will surely score a lot of runs this season, which could help someone to 20 wins. But you really think they'll outscore the 98 team. That seems extraordinarily unrealistic.
Mattpat11
01-01-06, 05:42 PM
I
3) Pavano: 15-20 wins. The big, big question mark. He's done it before (won 20),
.Never. Topped out at 18 in his career year.
Spiker101
01-02-06, 07:32 AM
The yanks will surely score a lot of runs this season, which could help someone to 20 wins. But you really think they'll outscore the 98 team. That seems extraordinarily unrealistic.
The 2006 team, one through nine, is a better hitting team than the '98 team, which scored 965. Whether they'll match that run total or better it will depend on whether the '06 team will turn out to be as lucky as the '98 team in avoiding injuries.
In any case, the '98 team is a good place to look to when predicting the Yanks could have one or more 20 game winners in 2006. Cone won 20 that year with a 3.55 ERA. Wells won 18 with a 3.49 and only made 30 starts. Hell, Mendoza won 10 games and only had 14 starts. Any Yankee pitcher who makes 34-35 starts and posts a 4.00 ERA or better stands a damn good chance of winning 20, especially if the pen is better than the rather mediocre '98 pen.
Mr. Mxylsplk
01-02-06, 09:54 AM
The 2006 team, one through nine, is a better hitting team than the '98 team, which scored 965. Whether they'll match that run total or better it will depend on whether the '06 team will turn out to be as lucky as the '98 team in avoiding injuries.
I think it's far more than just avoiding injuries. The 06 team may have a better collection of players on paper, but I don't think it's particularly close to having a group of players who can be expected to do as well as the hitters on that 98 team. That was a tremendous year for a number of guys, including bench guys the 06 team has no match for, and I think it's remarkably unrealistic to think this team will match that output, healthy or not.
goin for 27
01-02-06, 10:58 AM
I disagree. Which dominant starter did the Anaheim Angels have in 2002? Or: Which Yankee won 20 games in 1999 and 2000?
Of the last 10 World Series winners, only 4 have had a 20-game winner on their staff. In 2003, no Florida starter won more than 14 games. The whole 'dominant starter in the postseason' requirement is a myth.
Be seeing you,
Saxmania
Sax, I disagree. First, a dominant starter does not have to have won 20 games during the regular season to be called dominant. You can be a pitcher who has consistently high win totals, and is rises to the post season.
It helps greatly to have a stud starter in the postseason, especially if you can align him to start the critical games in series.
Where are the 2004 Red Sox without Derek Lowe?
2003 Marlins without Josh Beckett?
2001 DBacks without Curt Schilling?
You mention 1999. Where are the Yanks in '99 without Orlando Hernandez?
1999 - El Duque was simply dominant in the post season. 4-0, with an ERA of
0.00 in the ALDS (8 inning 2 hit shutout)
1.80 in the ALCS (2 wins, 13k's in 15 innings,)
1.29 in the WS (1 win, 10k's in 7 innings)
You CAN win a World Series without a dominant pitcher, especially if your rotation is very strong. (Like the 2002 Angels. You say they did not have a dominant pitcher, yet 4 of 5 starters had season long ERA's in the 3's.)
Pitching is hugely important in the post season. You can hope that you have a decent staff who will deliver. But more often than not, if you have someone who can shut down a team, and pitch either Game 1, Game 5 or Game 7, (preferably 2 of these) your team is going to have a MUCH better chance of winning.
38Special
01-02-06, 11:04 AM
Where are the 2004 Red Sox without Derek Lowe?
Probably winning the division. His 3-4 dominant starts in the postseason, doesnt mean much in being an "stud"
goin for 27
01-02-06, 11:05 AM
I don't think anyone, but Randy obviously could.
RJ - If healthy, he likely WOULD win 20. I don't think he can pitch all year healthy.
Moose - Next best bet. He could rebound and if he stays healthy, he could do it. I know he never has, and it would be surprising, but I can't say shocking.
Chacon - Chacon has won 31 games in his 5 year career. I don't think it fair to ask him to win 20. He was GREAT last year along with Small, I expect him more near his career numbers this season.
Wang - Love this kid, but 20? No.
Pavano - IF healthy for the whole season, he will pitch to his career norms, which means 12-12.
Wright - I only typed his name because he is on the list.
goin for 27
01-02-06, 11:09 AM
Probably winning the division. His 3-4 dominant starts in the postseason, doesnt mean much in being an "stud"
Of course it does.
Lowe won 20 once in his career. He was also dominant as a closer. You are right, if he pitched well, they would have won the division. The question was about post season pitching.
Lowe was a stud in the postseason in 2004. If he pitched like he did during the regular season, the Yanks would have faced St Louis.
38Special
01-02-06, 11:09 AM
Chacon - Chacon has won 31 games in his 5 year career. I don't think it fair to ask him to win 20. He was GREAT last year along with Small, I expect him more near his career numbers this season.
I dont see what his career in Colorado has to do with his ability to win 20 games. If he gets the run support and puts up a good ERA he can do it. The offense and altitude in Colorado is much different
goin for 27
01-02-06, 12:19 PM
I dont see what his career in Colorado has to do with his ability to win 20 games. If he gets the run support and puts up a good ERA he can do it. The offense and altitude in Colorado is much different
So you want to toss out 4 years of history for 3 months as a Yankee?
The "Colorado Factor" is real, clearly. However, look at Chacon's ERA+. This is park adjusted.
He has two years of 103 ERA+. This is barely over the average of 100. (Even though he had an ERA of 5.06 one of the seasons.)
He also has two other years at below 100. (Below average)
Career, park adjusted ERA+ is exactly 100. Exactly average. This is over 95 starts, or 3 seasons of starting.
20 wins is a huge feat. It does not happen very often. Chacon's odds of accomplishing it would be infintesimal.
And I am not even factoring in that he is very injury prone.
He has missed serious time in his career, staying healthy as a reliever in 2004.
2002 - Missed most of May, all of September. (strained chest muscle in May, elbow problems in September)
2003 - Elbow - (shut down after August 16th)
2005 - Hamstring - Missed all of June
Anyone CAN win 20 games. The Yankee offense is potent, and some starters will pitch poorly now and then and still get a win. However, to select Chacon, is definitely a reach. He COULD do it, but the odds are certainly tiny.
I just don't think it fair for fans to expect him to duplicate what he did last year. By that logic, the next pitcher likeliest to win 20 games would be Aaron Small.
Saxmania
01-02-06, 12:35 PM
Sax, I disagree. First, a dominant starter does not have to have won 20 games during the regular season to be called dominant. You can be a pitcher who has consistently high win totals, and is rises to the post season.
I still contend that the Angels didn't have one of those - unless you call Jarrod Washburn 'dominant', in which case why has he been so indifferent ever since?
So often these labels tend to be applied after the fact. I mean, who in September 2004 (after he had gone 14-12 with an ERA well over 5) would have predicted that Derek Lowe would have been dominant in October? Especially after, in his last postseason series, he had an ERA of 6.43. So much of this is retrospective.
It helps greatly to have a stud starter in the postseason, especially if you can align him to start the critical games in series.
Where are the 2004 Red Sox without Derek Lowe?
2003 Marlins without Josh Beckett?
2001 DBacks without Curt Schilling?
But you're listing pitchers who had very good postseason series. Well, I agree that it really helps to have a very hot pitcher on your staff - hopefully more than one. However, people didn't know in 2004 that Lowe would be dominant, or in 2003 that Beckett would be (young, no postseason experience, one decent season). Schilling I'll grant, but then what happened in 2002? The Diamondbacks crashed out despite 2 dominant pitchers.
It's too unreliable to have any predictive value, and therefore I doubt it has any real value in constructing a team.
You mention 1999. Where are the Yanks in '99 without Orlando Hernandez?
1999 - El Duque was simply dominant in the post season. 4-0, with an ERA of
0.00 in the ALDS (8 inning 2 hit shutout)
1.80 in the ALCS (2 wins, 13k's in 15 innings,)
1.29 in the WS (1 win, 10k's in 7 innings)
Again, that's after the fact. The Yankees beat Atlanta in 1996 and 1999, despite Atlanta having the most dominant pitching rotations in baseball for ages in the regular season. El Duque was obviously an excellent postseason pitcher for the Yankees, but there's no way they could have known that when he first signed for them. So as a way to build a team, I still think it's misleading retrospective.
You CAN win a World Series without a dominant pitcher, especially if your rotation is very strong. (Like the 2002 Angels. You say they did not have a dominant pitcher, yet 4 of 5 starters had season long ERA's in the 3's.)
Washburn had an excellent year, yet has never been the same again. Appier was slightly over league average. Ortiz was slightly better than Appier. Lackey pitched half a season. Only Washburn could be said to be dominant in 2002, and his year was significantly better than anything he's done since.
Pitching is hugely important in the post season. You can hope that you have a decent staff who will deliver. But more often than not, if you have someone who can shut down a team, and pitch either Game 1, Game 5 or Game 7, (preferably 2 of these) your team is going to have a MUCH better chance of winning.
Again, I submit to you that Atlanta had the most dominant pitching in baseball between 1990 and 2000, and yet had a very poor record of accomplishment in the postseason. Of course pitching is hugely important. But so is hitting. And I can't see how you can plan for this 'dominant' starter thing, because - as Derek Lowe illustrates perfectly - you don't know who's going to be dominant until you get to October.
Who knew Derek Lowe was going to dominate in October 2004?
Who knew Randy Johnson was going to implode in October 2002 after a stellar October 2001?
Who knew Roger Clemens was going to win games in October 1999 after a poor regular season?
You get the idea. Looking to the past is useful if you can learn lessons from it, but it seems to me the whole 'dominant starter' argument is cherry-picking. You're always going to have one or two pitchers who excel in a small sample - pointing at them and calling them 'dominant' is reaching, because it's not predictive. Otherwise Randy Johnson would have won us game 3 last year.
Derek Lowe is really the perfect counter-example here, I feel. A pitcher who has a good postseason isn't necessarily a dominant pitcher - he's just a guy who may or may not be a good pitcher, but who gets hot at the right time. Every team will have one of those in a successful postseason campaign. But pointing at him and saying, 'that's the best way to win in October' seems to me to be missing the point. How do we use that to win? If we can't, does it have any value?
Be seeing you,
Saxmania
JavyVazquezIsSick
01-02-06, 01:05 PM
So you want to toss out 4 years of history for 3 months as a Yankee?
The "Colorado Factor" is real, clearly. However, look at Chacon's ERA+. This is park adjusted.
He has two years of 103 ERA+. This is barely over the average of 100. (Even though he had an ERA of 5.06 one of the seasons.)
He also has two other years at below 100. (Below average)
Career, park adjusted ERA+ is exactly 100. Exactly average. This is over 95 starts, or 3 seasons of starting.
20 wins is a huge feat. It does not happen very often. Chacon's odds of accomplishing it would be infintesimal.
And I am not even factoring in that he is very injury prone.
He has missed serious time in his career, staying healthy as a reliever in 2004.
2002 - Missed most of May, all of September. (strained chest muscle in May, elbow problems in September)
2003 - Elbow - (shut down after August 16th)
2005 - Hamstring - Missed all of June
Anyone CAN win 20 games. The Yankee offense is potent, and some starters will pitch poorly now and then and still get a win. However, to select Chacon, is definitely a reach. He COULD do it, but the odds are certainly tiny.
I just don't think it fair for fans to expect him to duplicate what he did last year. By that logic, the next pitcher likeliest to win 20 games would be Aaron Small.
I don't think you could really make that comparison. If arguarably your best pitch is your curveball and you can't throw it/it hangs in the zone for hitters to crush it, it changes the way you go about pitching, both at home and during away games. I think he became a completely different pitcher with the Yankees...
Cmon people, when are we going to realize that its IMPOSSIBLE to predict 20 game winners. RJ could have a 3.50 ERA with 16 wins while Pavano has a 4.20 ERA and wins 20. One thing is I notice is that its usually not the pitcher you expect. So maybe this is the year Moose finally gets 20, when he's kinda been written off as having the ability to do that and is no longer expected to challenge for 20.
BronxBaumer
01-02-06, 02:33 PM
Yeah, even on the Devil Rays, rocket would have won 20 this year...very upredictible.
JeterRodriguezSheff
01-02-06, 04:08 PM
I got Randy winning 21 now that he seemed to fix his mechanics. I dont see anybody else exceeding 15 though.
JeterRodriguezSheff
01-02-06, 04:10 PM
I'll be happy if RJ makes 20 healthy starts. I'll just take 20 quality starts. I don't think he's winning 20.
He was our most durable pitcher last year and the best pitcher in the Al East .(except for Halladay but he got injured)and was a top pitcher for the AL.
He was our most durable pitcher last year and the best pitcher in the Al East and was a top pitcher for the AL.(except for Halladay but he got injured)Santana too, but other than that, there weren't any others.
JeterRodriguezSheff
01-02-06, 04:21 PM
Santana too, but other than that, there weren't any others.
For some reason people think Randy had a bad year. He has a bad first half but became himself in the second half. Overall he had a 3.79 era with a 1.13 whip. Im predicting something like 21-6 3.20 era.
Sierra Mist
01-02-06, 04:22 PM
why isnt Aaron Small's name on this poll??? They give you up to 10 options. I cant believe so many people voted for RJ, perhaps they are actually wishing he would win 20 games, not predicting. I dont think he will win 20 games for the remaining 2 years on this roster. At his age he will probably be on the DL most of the time. I voted for Chacon.
Spiker101
01-02-06, 04:23 PM
I think it's far more than just avoiding injuries. The 06 team may have a better collection of players on paper, but I don't think it's particularly close to having a group of players who can be expected to do as well as the hitters on that 98 team. That was a tremendous year for a number of guys, including bench guys the 06 team has no match for, and I think it's remarkably unrealistic to think this team will match that output, healthy or not.
I'm not sure people realize how intimidating this '06 lineup could be, if they all stay healthy.
Comparing the '98 numbers with the realistic potential for '06:
Knobby .761--If Damon doesn't beat that they're be some hell raised.
Jeter .865--You'd expect Jeter to be about .825-.850.
O'Neil .882--ARod (for argument's sake, instead of Giambi) likely be between .950-1.000
Bernie .997--Giambi likely to between .950-1.000
Tino .860--Sheffield .850-.900
Posada .825--Posada between .775-.825
Curtis .722/Raines .783--Matsui .850-.900
DH was shared between Strawberry and Chili who posted OPS of .896 and .820 respectfully. I have no idea who will DH in '06 but it's unlikely they'll be able to match the '98 production.
Brosius .865--Cano, I have no idea. He had a .778 last year. He could be much higher or much lower this year.
Everyone remembers the ''98 bench being a monster, but I think that's largely because of Shane Spencer's weird September, but that consisted of 67 ABs. Aside from Chili (100 ABs) and Raines, there was Sojo who stunk, Girardi who stunk and Leedee who stunk.
The only players who we know are going to be on the bench in '06 -- Stinnett, Cairo, and Bernie -- are better offensive players than Girardi, Sojo or Leedee.
I'd say that the '06 team will potentially be stronger than the '98 outfit at leadoff, the third hole, and whatever hole Matsui fills. The '98 team had the advantage at ninth and DH. Cleanup and fifth you'd have to rate about even; with a slight edge to the '98 versions of Jeter and Posada over next year's version. It looks like to me, pending whatever bat the Yanks get before the season begins, the '06 team will be stronger offensively. Pitching ... that's another matter.
Sierra Mist
01-02-06, 04:25 PM
I think that Johnson can do it this year. I casted a vote of confidence his way. He's corrected his mechanical issues and will be working with Kerrigan the entire year this time, versus only half a season in 2005.
He is like 43 now. Had he been a few years younger I would say yes, but I really doubt he can turn it around at his age. Its kinda like Holyfield who keeps boxing and says he may win the heavyweight title again. Its time for some of these older, higher paid guys to step aside and let younger players like Wang, Small, and Chacon have a chance.
yankeebot
01-02-06, 04:43 PM
why isnt Aaron Small's name on this poll??? They give you up to 10 options. I cant believe so many people voted for RJ, perhaps they are actually wishing he would win 20 games, not predicting. I dont think he will win 20 games for the remaining 2 years on this roster. At his age he will probably be on the DL most of the time. I voted for Chacon.Ahhh, welcome back!
Saxmania
01-02-06, 05:07 PM
Everyone remembers the ''98 bench being a monster, but I think that's largely because of Shane Spencer's weird September, but that consisted of 67 ABs. Aside from Chili (100 ABs) and Raines, there was Sojo who stunk, Girardi who stunk and Leedee who stunk.
The only players who we know are going to be on the bench in '06 -- Stinnett, Cairo, and Bernie -- are better offensive players than Girardi, Sojo or Leedee.
But we don't have a Chili or a Raines at the moment, and we won't get another Spencer (whose September still counts, abberation or no). Our bench is likely to be significantly worse, and comparing the two lineups I think 1998 has still got to look stronger. We'd need to improve by almost 100 runs from last year to beat it, and with declines from several players quite possible (Posada, Sheffield, Giambi maybe). I see 1998 more balanced in the lineup, which means longer rallies and more tired opposing pitchers.
1998 really was a perfect storm, and until the Yankees stop overpaying for decline phases, I don't think they'll get a lineup that balanced again.
Be seeing you,
Saxmania
38Special
01-02-06, 05:38 PM
why isnt Aaron Small's name on this poll??? They give you up to 10 options. I cant believe so many people voted for RJ, perhaps they are actually wishing he would win 20 games, not predicting. I dont think he will win 20 games for the remaining 2 years on this roster. At his age he will probably be on the DL most of the time. I voted for Chacon.
He's not going to get 20 starts, let alone 20 wins
shcabot
01-02-06, 07:17 PM
Hey, as horrible a year as RJ had last year (because most fans considered it a horrible year, although I didn't), he still managed to win 17 games. Who's to say he might not come back next year and have a decent year and win somewhere close to 20, if not 20. Its always possible, especially if he gets his back and knee problems figured out. Lets hope he does. ;)
Spiker101
01-03-06, 04:37 AM
But we don't have a Chili or a Raines at the moment, and we won't get another Spencer (whose September still counts, abberation or no). Our bench is likely to be significantly worse, and comparing the two lineups I think 1998 has still got to look stronger. We'd need to improve by almost 100 runs from last year to beat it, and with declines from several players quite possible (Posada, Sheffield, Giambi maybe). I see 1998 more balanced in the lineup, which means longer rallies and more tired opposing pitchers.
1998 really was a perfect storm, and until the Yankees stop overpaying for decline phases, I don't think they'll get a lineup that balanced again.
Be seeing you,
Saxmania
Raines was really more of a platoon partner with Curtis in left. Matsui doesn't require a platoon partner and he's vastly superior to Curtis/Raines. Chili had 100 ABs. I don't for a moment think the Yanks are through. They'll get another bat. Not sure who. But to make any hard and fast conclusions about the relative merits of the benchs is premature.
Spencer's month while impressive came in September and was meaningless in the sense the playoffs were wrapped up by late August.
BTW, the '98 team scored 74 more runs than the '97 team.
I just disagree that this year's lineup is weaker than '98's. Depending on what they do with DH and what kind of season Cano has, the '06 team will have a superior hitter at every slot. The '98 team was a perfect storm, as you put it, not because the offense was so great (there were better offensive teams in that era; the Indians. Barring major injuries there will not be a better offense in '06 than the Yanks) but because they cobbled the terrific offense together with a terrific rotation.
CalYankeeFan
01-03-06, 09:16 AM
:-hide-: :-poke-:
Ahhh, welcome back!
YankeeClemens22
01-03-06, 09:29 AM
I think RJ can win 20 if he is healthy. He will have adjusted to Yankee Stadium and NY much better this year, and he's still one of the best in the league.
And hopefully our revamped bullpen doesn't give up any of his wins.
shutout
01-03-06, 10:10 AM
I voted none of our pitchers, but I voted to early - I forgot RJ won 17 last season which was quite a bad season for him... So I'll give a 20 winner to RJ. In the future I won't be suprised if Wang will be able to do this, but certainly not this year and probably not even in 2007.
InterlockingNY
01-03-06, 10:55 AM
Its not like RJ missed major chunks of the season last year, he missed a start here and a start there. The problem was his first half of the season. He was horrible, his second half was very strong. I dont know about that "getting used to playing in New York" or what, but I predict a good season for RJ
Hitman23
01-03-06, 11:23 AM
He was our most durable pitcher last year and the best pitcher in the Al East .(except for Halladay but he got injured)and was a top pitcher for the AL.He didn't do the job. Period. And he had alot of very bad outings. More then his career says he should have. And on a team with this offense, and his contract, that's unacceptable. Plus, he crumbled in the playoffs, which means he could have won 30 games in the regular season, but it didn't matter.
But that's besides the point. Again, I'll just take 20 starts from him and be happy. I gotta suck up this monstrosity of a contract and just hope for the best. If he wins 20, then great.
CommerceComet
01-03-06, 03:29 PM
I think the depth at starting pitching will make it difficult for anyone to win 20 games. With Small and some one else in reserve, Torre will likely pull any pitcher who has a minor injury, needs more rest, or gets off to a slow start. Randy, if he stays healthy, will have the best chance since he has the best stuff on the staff and Torre will probably give Randy the ball any time he is ready even if someone else has to move back a day.
Randy Johnson will win 20+ games.
Was looking at a contract site and found out this about RJ's contract:$6M of 2005 salary was deferred and 1.5M will be deferred for 2006 and 2007- All at ZERO interest
Makes the deal a bit more palatable
silverdsl
01-03-06, 04:54 PM
I'm not feeling a 20-game winner for the Yankees in '06. Not because there's a lack of ability just because so much has to go right for a pitcher to win 20. It's really tough and since a lot of the Yankees starting pitchers are older or have been fragile I suspect that a few of them will be pitching at less than full effectiveness or be missing starts at times.
-Deborah
Spiker101
01-03-06, 05:04 PM
I think the depth at starting pitching will make it difficult for anyone to win 20 games. With Small and some one else in reserve, Torre will likely pull any pitcher who has a minor injury, needs more rest, or gets off to a slow start. Randy, if he stays healthy, will have the best chance since he has the best stuff on the staff and Torre will probably give Randy the ball any time he is ready even if someone else has to move back a day.
An astute point, assuming the Yanks don't trade off some or all of their surplus starting pitching late in spring training.
mpage64
01-03-06, 06:46 PM
I really think Pavano will come back in a big way in '06.
ChocolateGirl
01-03-06, 07:57 PM
Neither of them
Bingo. However, I HOPE that there will be 3-4 10+ game winners.
We don't need to have a 20 game winner to be successful. All Yankee fans should ask for is the rotation to stay healthy and be in tact for the playoffs. Since 2000, all of our pitchers seemed to have run out of gas at some point within the playoffs.
bagger015
01-03-06, 09:46 PM
I would like to see Mike Mussina finally get to the big 20. :)
Arod for President
01-03-06, 10:41 PM
I actually would like to predict a Stunning 21 Win season for RJ. :D
Am I crazy?!?!
shcabot
01-06-06, 08:27 PM
No. RJ will win 1,000,567,342 games.
Bob Saccomano
01-06-06, 11:14 PM
I'd say RJ has the best shot, though predicting 20 game winners is nearly impossible. Roger Clemens should have been a 20+ game winner this year, but it didn't happen. Santana should also have been, but a lack of run support hurt his chances. Bartolo Colon has won 20 or more games twice in his career: 2002, with a 2.93 ERA, and 2005, with a 3.48 ERA. With a 3.87 ERA with the White Sox, he won 15 games, but won 18 the following year with a 5.01 ERA. Some pitchers get lucky with run support, and others don't. Although everyone's convinced that the lineup will be scoring tons of runs, I think it's important to remember that one of the problems last season was the enormous inconsistency in scoring. Sure, there were games against the D-Rays where the Yankees scored 20 runs, but there were games against the Royals where they scored 1-2 runs. I'm optimistic, but it will take consistency both in pitchers and in offensive production for a 20 game winner. I'm hoping that RJ was just going through a Clemens-esque adjustment period, and will be better this year.
rivera,s cutter
01-07-06, 12:15 PM
the big unit will win 20 next season
shcabot
01-08-06, 09:05 AM
I'd say RJ has the best shot, though predicting 20 game winners is nearly impossible. Roger Clemens should have been a 20+ game winner this year, but it didn't happen. Santana should also have been, but a lack of run support hurt his chances. Bartolo Colon has won 20 or more games twice in his career: 2002, with a 2.93 ERA, and 2005, with a 3.48 ERA. With a 3.87 ERA with the White Sox, he won 15 games, but won 18 the following year with a 5.01 ERA. Some pitchers get lucky with run support, and others don't. Although everyone's convinced that the lineup will be scoring tons of runs, I think it's important to remember that one of the problems last season was the enormous inconsistency in scoring. Sure, there were games against the D-Rays where the Yankees scored 20 runs, but there were games against the Royals where they scored 1-2 runs. I'm optimistic, but it will take consistency both in pitchers and in offensive production for a 20 game winner. I'm hoping that RJ was just going through a Clemens-esque adjustment period, and will be better this year.
Great post! And you have it completely right. Pitchers NEED run support to be successful. That's why baseball is a team sport.
HidekiIrabu
01-08-06, 02:10 PM
Im really hoping Johnson does it
HipHipJorge
01-08-06, 05:57 PM
I would like to see Mike Mussina finally get to the big 20. :)
I'm with you and it's also his contract year, right?
Jeter Kid
01-08-06, 06:20 PM
I can't see it happening. At least not in 2006.
Mr. Mxylsplk
01-08-06, 08:45 PM
I'm with you and it's also his contract year, right?
Contract year is one term for it. Final year is another. :(
freebubba
01-09-06, 03:37 PM
I have to agree with spiker101 on this. With 33 starts, I think RJ does it without a problem. With this offense, any of our other slotted starters that go out and make 31 - 33 starts has a pretty good shot. Mel being gone ain't gonna hurt, either. No offense to any of his supporters, but far too many of our pitchers went into prolonged funks under his watch, with only the real veterans able to pull themselves out. With all that being said, I do think only one other than RJ will actually do it, though. I put my three-fitty on Pavano, if he is still around (and I absolutely think he needs to stay). History says he holds up well after an injury year.
dmsimon15
01-09-06, 03:46 PM
Look for Johnson to win 20+ games. Age could play a factor w/ Johnson and Mussina. With the run support alone, this staff should enjoy a lot of success. If they can manage to stay healthy.
Wolf In Pinstripes
01-09-06, 05:04 PM
I also see 20+ for RJ this season, and making the assumption that their 2005 seasons were not flashes in the pan, I believe that Wang and Chacon could threaten to hit the 20 mark if they stay healthy. Wang's injury last season casts a bit of justifiable doubt over that, as well as the fact that Chacon needs another year to prove that his first season in NY was not a fluke. Those things taken into consideration, I'm still going to suggest that either of them could pull it off.
utopiapkwy
01-17-06, 07:06 AM
I'd say RJ has the best shot, though predicting 20 game winners is nearly impossible. Roger Clemens should have been a 20+ game winner this year, but it didn't happen. Santana should also have been, but a lack of run support hurt his chances. Bartolo Colon has won 20 or more games twice in his career: 2002, with a 2.93 ERA, and 2005, with a 3.48 ERA. With a 3.87 ERA with the White Sox, he won 15 games, but won 18 the following year with a 5.01 ERA. Some pitchers get lucky with run support, and others don't. Although everyone's convinced that the lineup will be scoring tons of runs, I think it's important to remember that one of the problems last season was the enormous inconsistency in scoring. Sure, there were games against the D-Rays where the Yankees scored 20 runs, but there were games against the Royals where they scored 1-2 runs. I'm optimistic, but it will take consistency both in pitchers and in offensive production for a 20 game winner. I'm hoping that RJ was just going through a Clemens-esque adjustment period, and will be better this year.
The Clemens-esque theory is why I went with Randy, but as you say it is far from a lock. Nobody adjusts to NY over night, so hopefully a year of adjustment + RJ's undeniable ability + good offense + some good luck in the health department = 20 wins.
aeromac76
01-17-06, 08:04 AM
RJ 20-8
Moose 14-11
Pavano 13-7
Wang 15-10
Chacon 22-5
If Chacon goes 22-5 I'll dance naked on the streets where I live..
This is pretty optimistic though.
The combined record here is 84-41. That is an unbelievable pace for a starting rotation, I'd love it, but I think this is too high..
surge511
01-17-06, 08:16 AM
While Chacon and Wang are being counted on for nice seasons, I can't see either winning 20 games. The 14-16 range is where, if healthy, I bet each ends up at. That is perfectly fine for middle of the rotation starters. Randy has to carry the staff, and I think he can. People are making him out to be finished. The adjustment period is over - it is time for him to dominate. He went 17-9, 3.79 in an OFF YEAR. Just wait until you see what he does this year, fully acclimated to life in NY.
Dave Visbeck
01-17-06, 09:40 AM
http://xs12.xs.to/pics/05035/icon_old.gif Let me shake my mystic eight ball and see what it has to say!
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
It reads: Wine and dine her for the results you desire :ga-ga:
:upset: I'll try again.
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
It reads: Clouds will cover most days ahead :looking:
:upset: Damn ball. I'll give it another try.
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
It reads: Quakes will shake the left coast :-hide-:
:dunno: I'll try it again.
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
It reads: Sleep in today ... your dreams will resume :uhh:
:enraged: This worthless piece of crap. I'll shake the hell out of it!
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
*shake*
It reads: Most anyone will have will be 18. :scared:
:-shrug-:
The mystic eight ball knows and tells all! http://xs12.xs.to/pics/05035/icon_old.gif
If randy pitches this year like he ended last year's regular season, then he can easily win 20 with this offense.
effdamets
01-17-06, 11:49 AM
No offense, but...
How can anyone, other than a relative of his, vote for Jaret Wright to have 20 wins next season?
Here's to hoping that he doesn't get into 20 games as a Yankee! That guy is a punching bag!
No offense, but...
How can anyone, other than a relative of his, vote for Jaret Wright to have 20 wins next season?
Here's to hoping that he doesn't get into 20 games as a Yankee! That guy is a punching bag!
I think, well hope, it's more the fact there's a ton of confidence in this offense and defense that we could put Melido Perez out there today and win 20.
BronxBombers2005
01-17-06, 03:45 PM
If randy pitches this year like he ended last year's regular season, then he can easily win 20 with this offense.
I strongly agree with that, Randy could easily win 20+ games this year, if he pitched like he did at the end of last season.....Hopefully hes is like A-rod, it took him a little while to get used to playing in the bronx, and look what he did his second year.
Hitman23
01-17-06, 03:56 PM
The mystic eight ball knows and tells all! http://xs12.xs.to/pics/05035/icon_old.gif:lol: good job Dave
WebsterMulligan
01-17-06, 04:03 PM
I'll be surprised if any Yankee starter wins 17 games, in 2006.
Only Johnson may have a realistic chance (IMHO), if he remains healthy.
JamieMadrox
01-17-06, 04:22 PM
It's Johnson's year to do it, the way he was pitching for his last 10-15 starts at the end of the season combined with the great performance in Game 5 (nobody seems to remember that after the royal ................up by the offense) should lead one to believe that he'll have no problem having a 20+ win season.
The FUTURE
01-17-06, 08:53 PM
Unless we empty out of minor league system to trade for Dontrelle Willis. No Way. I say Johnson,Wang will get 15, Chacon and Mussina 11-15 and Pavano 10-12 (I hope).
Not that this would ever happen in a million years. Just for Conversation.
Would you trade RHP Phillip Hughes,1B/3B Eric Duncan and RHP Christian Gracia for LHP Dontrelle Willis ??
Lets make this clear. NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN IN A MILLION YEARS...JUST FOR CONVERSATION
Cold Shad
01-18-06, 01:09 PM
If the Marlins are Willing to give up the only reason any one will pay to see them. They could do this deal.
JamieMadrox
01-18-06, 01:17 PM
If the Marlins are Willing to give up the only reason any one will pay to see them. They could do this deal.
he said would YOU do it, not would the marlins do it.
i wouldn't...if we had a pressing need for ML pitching right now maybe, but the sense of urgency isn't worth possibly giving up 2 pitchers with ceilings as high as willis.
Dave Visbeck
01-19-06, 04:52 AM
I actually would like to predict a Stunning 21 Win season for RJ. :D
Am I crazy?!?!
http://xs12.xs.to/pics/05035/icon_old.gif Maybe you are just a very tiny winnie bit... :eek: ;)
We'llBeBackAgain
01-22-06, 08:45 AM
Nah. Wang and Chacon have tons of potential, but they're not going to win 20, not this year at least. If someone wins 20 it's going to be Johnson, but it seems as though his best days are *sigh* behind him.
SubwayFanatic
01-22-06, 12:18 PM
I have to agree with spiker101 on this. With 33 starts, I think RJ does it without a problem. With this offense, any of our other slotted starters that go out and make 31 - 33 starts has a pretty good shot.
I expect RJ to have a very good year next year, but I am still not sure he will win 20 games. It's very hard to do. And honestly, haven't we heard this argument for years now, "With this offense our starters should easily win (insert huge number of games here!)
The offense should be very good next year, but even then they will have games where they don't hit. RJ will have a few stinkers. I am sure the bullpen will also blow a few games for him.
I think he will be damn good but I don't see him or anybody on the staff winning 20 games "without a problem."
YANKfan47
01-24-06, 12:34 AM
I voted for Mike Mussina but i really dont think that any of the new york yankee pitchers will have a 20 win season. i think we will get a lot of our wins in the later innings w/ our bull pen such as last year! anyone agree?
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