View Full Version : Why the fascination with Reed?
Huktonfonix
12-13-05, 06:49 AM
I've read all the threads and articles clamoring for a Pavano/Reed swap, but I honestly can't see why we want Reed? Admittedly, I don't watch many west coast games. What I've gathered from people here is that he's a spectacular defender, and of course he's young and cheap.
ESPN's scouting report Link (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/scouting?statsId=7284) confuses the heck out of me, because none of it matches anything I know about him. According to them, he hits for great power, but his defense is questionable? I don't put a lot of stock in ESPN, so if anyone has a better report on him I'd love to read it.
His stats make me wary though. From what I can see he doesn't hit for power, doesn't hit for average, and doesn't get on base. In fact, his offensive production is almost identical to Crosby's. His numbers over the course of 18 games in 2004 look great, however. Does anyone have his minor league numbers? Did he hit well there?
I'm not against the guy, just uninformed. Please enlighten me. Why do we want Reed?
goin for 27
12-13-05, 07:04 AM
By Zone Rating, he was the best CF in the league. Pretty sure his UZR is top three as well. He is a VERY strong Centerfielder. He is a bit weak at the plate, actually with little pop, and a lower OBP.
Still, Crosby is the current option today, and he is not in the same league as Reed.
Their numbers are not similar.
Last 2 seasons.
Reed - .269 .338 .364
Crosby .221 .253 .301
The Red Sox are also interested in Reed, in case Damon gets too expensive. If they get them both, they have a great 4th OF'er.
I was definitely disappointed that the Yanks did not do the reported Pavano/Reed deal.
Huktonfonix
12-13-05, 07:09 AM
According to espn, they both posted Womackian mid-600's OPS's last season. I'd say their offense is similarly bad.
Yankees1962
12-13-05, 07:23 AM
I've read all the threads and articles clamoring for a Pavano/Reed swap, but I honestly can't see why we want Reed? Admittedly, I don't watch many west coast games. What I've gathered from people here is that he's a spectacular defender, and of course he's young and cheap.
ESPN's scouting report Link (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/scouting?statsId=7284) confuses the heck out of me, because none of it matches anything I know about him. According to them, he hits for great power, but his defense is questionable? I don't put a lot of stock in ESPN, so if anyone has a better report on him I'd love to read it.
His stats make me wary though. From what I can see he doesn't hit for power, doesn't hit for average, and doesn't get on base. In fact, his offensive production is almost identical to Crosby's. His numbers over the course of 18 games in 2004 look great, however. Does anyone have his minor league numbers? Did he hit well there?
I'm not against the guy, just uninformed. Please enlighten me. Why do we want Reed?
Those are my questions too. A lot of us are placing blame on why Cashman doesn't pull the trigger on that reported Pavano trade, but perhaps somebody (Yankee scouts) are telling him that Reed's not good enough to justify trading Pavano for him. Is he just a defensive CF without any offensive abilities? He has some good minor league stats, but that doesn't necessarily mean he can translate those numbers in the ML. His foot speed doesn't appear to be anything to write home about.
I want to hear more about him from those that think he's good enough to trade your #3 starter for.
rob in boston
12-13-05, 07:24 AM
According to espn, they both posted Womackian mid-600's OPS's last season. I'd say their offense is similarly bad.
In the Boston Globe today it say sthe sox have let it be know to the mariners they will trade clement for Reed.
Yanks Lifer
12-13-05, 07:42 AM
In the Boston Globe today it say sthe sox have let it be know to the mariners they will trade clement for Reed.
IMO, the Sox won't do this until and unless they are certain Damon won't re-sign. But, floating this rumor does 2 things:
1. Gets Damon thinking he may have to step up his decision process.
2. Drives up the price of Reed if the Yanks are interested.
Huktonfonix
12-13-05, 07:44 AM
Also lowers the price on Damon.
MTYankee23
12-13-05, 07:49 AM
Those are my questions too. A lot of us are placing blame on why Cashman doesn't pull the trigger on that reported Pavano trade, but perhaps somebody (Yankee scouts) are telling him that Reed's not good enough to justify trading Pavano for him. Is he just a defensive CF without any offensive abilities? He has some good minor league stats, but that doesn't necessarily mean he can translate those numbers in the ML. His foot speed doesn't appear to be anything to write home about.
I want to hear more about him from those that think he's good enough to trade your #3 starter for.
You mean #5 starter at #2 starter salary? Reed put up excellent offensive numbers in the minors, so his lack of success last year is puzzling at the plate.
NYDCYankee
12-13-05, 07:54 AM
I want to hear more about him from those that think he's good enough to trade your #3 starter for.
Is that what he was last year? I think you have to play earn a number like that.
goin for 27
12-13-05, 07:58 AM
According to espn, they both posted Womackian mid-600's OPS's last season. I'd say their offense is similarly bad.
Except that Reed played the bulk of the season with an injured wrist, and it was his rookie year. (he had a cup of coffee at the end of 2003)
Crosby is 30 years old, and can't hold Reed's jock in CF.
Jeremy Reed has been reported to be healthy, and his minor league numbers at the plate were great. He is very undervalued in my opinion.
Just the fact that there is a Clement/Reed deal as potential is telling. The Yanks certainly are not getting a decent offer for Bubba, that's for sure.
Martini6196
12-13-05, 08:00 AM
"As a possible contingency plan if they lose Johnny Damon, the Red Sox have discussed a deal with the Mariners that would involve Matt Clement going to Seattle and center fielder Jeremy Reed coming to Boston, according to a source with direct knowledge of the discussions."
Just thought I'd post this article. Here's the link:
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2005/12/13/deal_with_mariners_discussed/
Fabien Brandy
12-13-05, 08:14 AM
Would the Yankees be better off with Reed and Mateo for Pavano or with Damon in CF and Pavano or whatever else they can get for Pavano?
Maybe I'm crazy, but if Boston trades Clement for Reed then they weaken both their offense and pitching, while getting a slight upgrade defensively in CF.
Does anyone know if Reed's defensive stats are helped by Safeco in that he can get to more balls and thus boost his numbers? For a guy to have one great defensive season when the reports on his defense were otherwise mixed, I'm not sure you can rely on Reed being an elite defender going forward.
surge511
12-13-05, 08:22 AM
As much money as Pavano is for the next 3 years, I want to see him in 2006. He has a lot of potential, and put it all together for one year. If (which seems like a huge IF) he can stay healthy, I think he will make us happy we didn't trade him.
Huktonfonix
12-13-05, 08:27 AM
Except that Reed played the bulk of the season with an injured wrist
That's the sort of info I'm looking for. Anyone got his minor league numbers?
MTYankee23
12-13-05, 08:28 AM
As much money as Pavano is for the next 3 years, I want to see him in 2006. He has a lot of potential, and put it all together for one year. If (which seems like a huge IF) he can stay healthy, I think he will make us happy we didn't trade him.
What makes you think this? Where is this potential? One great season can more often than not indicate luck when peripheral stats show an average pitcher.
I think we run a greater risk of having him pitch poorly again this season, but this time without the fallback that he was battling an injury.
Yankees1962
12-13-05, 08:40 AM
You mean #5 starter at #2 starter salary? Reed put up excellent offensive numbers in the minors, so his lack of success last year is puzzling at the plate.
No, I meant what I stated.
MTYankee23
12-13-05, 08:42 AM
No, I meant what I stated.
Interesting, because in his first year, he pitched like our #6. If he's going to earn 10 Million a year, he better have his career year every year, but like I've pointed out on here over and over again, that was in all likelihood his career year, and we paid him for it.
rhodehead
12-13-05, 09:01 AM
Jeremy Reed's Recent minor league numbers:
2003 (Age 22) AA - 66 g, 51 runs, 99 hits, 17 2b, 7 HR, 43 RBI, 18 SB (13 CS), .409/.474/.591
2004 (Age 23) AAA (CHW) - 73 g, 44 runs, 76 hits, 14 2b, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 12 SB (7 CS), .275/.357/.420 He was dealt to Seattle in the Freddy Garcia trade
2004 AAA (SEA) - 61 games, 40 runs, 71 hits, 10 2b, 5 HR, 36 RBI, 13 SB (2 CS), .305/.366/.455
As he improves, I think he will hit for average with a pretty good OBP, he should be capable of stealing 15+ bases and 10 HR, while providing gold glove caliber defense in CF. He is not going to be a middle of the order bat, but should score a bunch of runs in a good lineup...
Irabu's Son
12-13-05, 09:04 AM
Jeremy Reed's Recent minor league numbers:
2003 (Age 22) AA - 66 g, 51 runs, 99 hits, 17 2b, 7 HR, 43 RBI, 18 SB (13 CS), .409/.474/.591
2004 (Age 23) AAA (CHW) - 73 g, 44 runs, 76 hits, 14 2b, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 12 SB (7 CS), .275/.357/.420 He was dealt to Seattle in the Freddy Garcia trade
2004 AAA (SEA) - 61 games, 40 runs, 71 hits, 10 2b, 5 HR, 36 RBI, 13 SB (2 CS), .305/.366/.455
As he improves, I think he will hit for average with a pretty good OBP, he should be capable of stealing 15+ bases and 10 HR, while providing gold glove caliber defense in CF. He is not going to be a middle of the order bat, but should score a bunch of runs in a good lineup...
I was just about to post this exact same thing. .254 isn't bad for a rookie season... I think he'll be totally fine at the plate.
jcan411
12-13-05, 09:39 AM
I was just about to post this exact same thing. .254 isn't bad for a rookie season... I think he'll be totally fine at the plate.
As I just posted in the other thread, Reed's injury was a wrist injury last year. He might be labeled by the Mariners as healthy, but why would they trade him if he has so much potential?
Wrist injuries can be career threatening. not in the vein of having to sit out for the rest of your career, but not beeing able to be even close to your normal projection (which was his case) for the rest of your career. Look at nomar (although there are many others). the wrist injury can drastically alter your ability to swing in your normal mechanics, and can weaken the swing to hurt bat speed.
I have afeeling that is the case with Reed. It makes no sense to trde him for Clement or Pavano. Both are reclamation projects that make a ton of money and that are in the beginning of back loaded contracts. I think the Mariners realize that they need to get something for Reed now before he sucks for another season and has absolutely NO value whatsoever. It just does not add up....
Huktonfonix
12-13-05, 09:44 AM
Interesting theory. I remember Nomar's average plummeting after his first wrist injury. He's clearly never been the same hitter that Ted Williams once predicted would bat .400. I always assumed that the wrist injuries Nick Johnson had suffered were a big reason the yankees were willing to trade such a promising hitter. Maybe that explains Cashman backing off on Reed?
I Love Wang
12-13-05, 09:46 AM
That's the sort of info I'm looking for. Anyone got his minor league numbers?
I know they've already been posted, but, in the future, here's (http://www.thebaseballcube.com) a great site for career major league, minor league and college stats.
wileedog
12-13-05, 09:52 AM
I have afeeling that is the case with Reed. It makes no sense to trde him for Clement or Pavano. Both are reclamation projects that make a ton of money and that are in the beginning of back loaded contracts. I think the Mariners realize that they need to get something for Reed now before he sucks for another season and has absolutely NO value whatsoever. It just does not add up....
This scenario makes the most sense to me of everything I've read on Reed. I can't understand why the Mariners would unload a starting caliber CF who is 24, makes $300,000 and is supposedly GG quality in the field for guys like Pavano or Clement.
Particularly in this CF-starved market.
I Love Wang
12-13-05, 09:54 AM
This scenario makes the most sense to me of everything I've read on Reed. I can't understand why the Mariners would unload a starting caliber CF who is 24, makes $300,000 and is supposedly GG quality in the field for guys like Pavano or Clement.
Particularly in this CF-starved market.
The market isn't nearly as CF starved as it is SP starved. Not when Jarrod Washburn and Jeff Weaver can ask for 40+ million dollar deals.
flymick24
12-13-05, 09:55 AM
his defense is superb, and i predict that he will eventually learn to hit for average, if his minor league numbers are any proof to that. the only thing that concerns me is his lack of pop, but again, that cold come with time and as his body begins to fill out.
wileedog
12-13-05, 09:56 AM
The market isn't nearly as CF starved as it is SP starved. Not when Jarrod Washburn and Jeff Weaver can ask for 40+ million dollar deals.
Pavano for $30M certainly isn't that big of a "bargain" comparatively though. (OK, maybe compared to Weaver it is).
I'm not up to speed on their farm system. Do they even have anyone else besides Ichiro that could be moved into CF?
jcan411
12-13-05, 10:00 AM
The market isn't nearly as CF starved as it is SP starved. Not when Jarrod Washburn and Jeff Weaver can ask for 40+ million dollar deals.
But we are not even talking about Washburn or Weaver. Both are healthy. clement and Pavano have a ton of question marks and already are paid at/around 10 mil.
This just makes no sense for the mariners. I really have the feeling it is the wrist and the mariners know the more time they waste the less Reed will have value. It just makes no sense otherwise...
Fabien Brandy
12-13-05, 10:01 AM
I'm not up to speed on their farm system. Do they even have anyone else besides Ichiro that could be moved into CF?
They have Choo and also Snelling coming back later in the season. But no perfect fits that Reed is 'blocking'.
I Love Wang
12-13-05, 10:03 AM
Pavano for $30M certainly isn't that big of a "bargain" comparatively though. (OK, maybe compared to Weaver it is).
Pavano for 3/21 is a heck of a bargain, though. Keep in mind, Matt Morris TURNED DOWN an offer of 3/25 from Texas. I'll say that again, just so we're clear. Matt Morris, with an ERA well over 4 in the last two years in the NL Central, who has seen his k/9 drop from 7.7 to 7.32 to 6.27 to 5.84 to 5.47 last year (though he can grow a bad-ass beard), was offered a deal for 3 years and 25 million dollars (American), and said "No. I can do better than that with the Giants." And why? Because he throws a good number of innings. Mediocre innings eaters are getting big contracts. Thats terrifying to me. Pavano has a lot of trade value.
jcan411
12-13-05, 10:06 AM
Pavano for 3/21 is a heck of a bargain, though. Keep in mind, Matt Morris TURNED DOWN an offer of 3/25 from Texas. I'll say that again, just so we're clear. Matt Morris, with an ERA well over 4 in the last two years in the NL Central, who has seen his k/9 drop from 7.7 to 7.32 to 6.27 to 5.84 to 5.47 last year (though he can grow a bad-ass beard), was offered a deal for 3 years and 25 million dollars (American), and said "No. I can do better than that with the Giants." And why? Because he throws a good number of innings. Mediocre innings eaters are getting big contracts. Thats terrifying to me. Pavano has a lot of trade value.
Yeha Pavano was a real inings eater last year. Morris is much more valueable than Pavano right now. Pavano's only been over 200 innings twice. He's almost 30 and was hurt most of last year, and even when he did pitch he was not very effective. Plus, he makes a ton of money. He's no value....
New Murderer's Row
12-13-05, 10:08 AM
reed is exactly what the yankees need:
a cheap, young CF with good defense. and i think there's something to be said for offensive potential when a player hits .409 in AA.
reed was originally traded for freddy garcia, who is about as good, in my opinion, as carl pavano. i don't know why the mariners would essentially flip-flop and get rid of reed, but they need SP desperately and pavano is cheaper than FAs this year will come.
if the red sox acquire reed it will piss me off more than the beckett deal.
jcan411
12-13-05, 10:10 AM
reed is exactly what the yankees need:
a cheap, young CF with good defense. and i think there's something to be said for offensive potential when a player hits .409 in AA.
reed was originally traded for freddy garcia, who is about as good, in my opinion, as carl pavano. i don't know why the mariners would essentially flip-flop and get rid of reed, but they need SP desperately and pavano is cheaper than FAs this year will come.
if the red sox acquire reed it will piss me off more than the beckett deal.
As I said, you can't look at his minors numbers becuase it was before his wrist injury. He will not project the same...
MTYankee23
12-13-05, 10:10 AM
reed is exactly what the yankees need:
a cheap, young CF with good defense. and i think there's something to be said for offensive potential when a player hits .409 in AA.
reed was originally traded for freddy garcia, who is about as good, in my opinion, as carl pavano. i don't know why the mariners would essentially flip-flop and get rid of reed, but they need SP desperately and pavano is cheaper than FAs this year will come.
if the red sox acquire reed it will piss me off more than the beckett deal.
How dare you insult "the Rock" by comparing him to Carl Pavano. You cannot even compare these two pitchers.
Yankees1962
12-13-05, 10:13 AM
Yeha Pavano was a real inings eater last year. Morris is much more valueable than Pavano right now. Pavano's only been over 200 innings twice. He's almost 30 and was hurt most of last year, and even when he did pitch he was not very effective. Plus, he makes a ton of money. He's no value....
Hmmm, Pavano has no trade value so the different baseball writers from NYC to Seattle are just making those proposed trades up.
wileedog
12-13-05, 10:16 AM
Mediocre innings eaters are getting big contracts. Thats terrifying to me. Pavano has a lot of trade value.
A) I hardly qualify Pavano as an "innings eater", considering he's made it to 200 just twice in his career.
B) Pavano managed NOT to have an ERA over 4 just twice in all those years.
I'd take Morris in a heartbeat over Pavano right now, especially if it doesn't cost me my starting CFer.
jcan411
12-13-05, 10:17 AM
Hmmm, Pavano has no trade value so the different baseball writers from NYC to Seattle are just making those proposed trades up.
No, they are not making it up, but I think the value we are getting back is very low as well due to Reed's wrist injury...
I Love Wang
12-13-05, 10:18 AM
A) I hardly qualify Pavano as an "innings eater", considering he's made it to 200 just twice in his career.
B) Pavano managed NOT to have an ERA over 4 just twice in all those years.
I'd take Morris in a heartbeat over Pavano right now, especially if it doesn't cost me my starting CFer.
The innings eater comment was obviously referring to Morris, not Pavano. The Yankees have the ability to make Pavano's deal 3/21. Morris will require MORE than 3/25, and is likely off the market anyway.
wileedog
12-13-05, 10:19 AM
Hmmm, Pavano has no trade value so the different baseball writers from NYC to Seattle are just making those proposed trades up.
The trade offer from Seattle might be completely true.
But you'll notice the M's are talking to two teams about pitchers whose contracts their respective teams would probably like to dump.
Something to think about.
I Love Wang
12-13-05, 10:21 AM
The trade offer from Seattle might be completely true.
But you'll notice the M's are talking to two teams about pitchers whose contracts their respective teams would probably like to dump.
Something to think about.
The chance that Pavano's entire deal is moved is minute. The chance that Clement's entire deal is moved is nonexistant. And, keep in mind, the Yankees have Pavano for 3/30, and that doesn't go as far as it used to. Weaver is probably going to get more than that, and I'd rather have Pavano than Weaver.
goin for 27
12-13-05, 10:23 AM
As I said, you can't look at his minors numbers becuase it was before his wrist injury. He will not project the same...
Actually, he had surgery, which was deemed 100% successful. I am shore that Cashman and Co. would have access to all records, and he would have to pass a physical.
There are many many MLB players who have recovered from a wrist injury.
Who knows, you could be right, or he could be fine. If fine, he would be an outstanding acquisition. (Unless of course the Red Sox get him ;) )
Yankees1962
12-13-05, 10:23 AM
The trade offer from Seattle might be completely true.
But you'll notice the M's are talking to two teams about pitchers whose contracts their respective teams would probably like to dump.
Something to think about.
However, until a trade is made, none of us knows what the real value of either pitcher is in today's market.
wileedog
12-13-05, 10:23 AM
The innings eater comment was obviously referring to Morris, not Pavano. The Yankees have the ability to make Pavano's deal 3/21. Morris will require MORE than 3/25, and is likely off the market anyway.
He is off the market, but the point is while the M's might save a few bucks getting Pavano and praying they get the one 1 out of 3 seasons he's actually healthy, they also lose a 24 year old CFer making $300,000 with decent numbers in the minors and great defense, which is a premium need in Safeco.
Do you really think they want to put themselves in the very position we are in at CF? For Carl Pavano?
wileedog
12-13-05, 10:24 AM
However, until a trade is made, none of us knows what the real value of either pitcher is in today's market.
Absolutely true.
We're all just speculating here.
Yankees1962
12-13-05, 10:28 AM
The chance that Pavano's entire deal is moved is minute. The chance that Clement's entire deal is moved is nonexistant. And, keep in mind, the Yankees have Pavano for 3/30, and that doesn't go as far as it used to. Weaver is probably going to get more than that, and I'd rather have Pavano than Weaver.
It might not appear so to many yet, but the sudden inflated free agent market, in time could play to the Yankees advantage. However, the Yankees need to continue to foster their farm system, but make good decisions in relation to trades and free agent signings.
I Love Wang
12-13-05, 10:30 AM
He is off the market, but the point is while the M's might save a few bucks getting Pavano and praying they get the one 1 out of 3 seasons he's actually healthy, they also lose a 24 year old CFer making $300,000 with decent numbers in the minors and great defense, which is a premium need in Safeco.
Do you really think they want to put themselves in the very position we are in at CF? For Carl Pavano?
The Mariners wouldn't be relying on Bubba Crosby to suddenly learn how to hit. They have the option of moving Ichiro! to CF, and getting corner OFer to replace him, which is much easier. They also have a number of adequate to decent minor league options.
jcan411
12-13-05, 10:30 AM
Actually, he had surgery, which was deemed 100% successful. I am shore that Cashman and Co. would have access to all records, and he would have to pass a physical.
There are many many MLB players who have recovered from a wrist injury.
Who knows, you could be right, or he could be fine. If fine, he would be an outstanding acquisition. (Unless of course the Red Sox get him ;) )
His wsirt might be fine after surgery, but I have read that wrist injuries are the most trciky injury for someone to get back to form from becuiase they involve so much motion and are so critical to bat swing/speed. That is my concern....
Some recover, but few are the same, and he wasn't that great to begin with
wileedog
12-13-05, 10:45 AM
The Mariners wouldn't be relying on Bubba Crosby to suddenly learn how to hit. They have the option of moving Ichiro! to CF, and getting corner OFer to replace him, which is much easier. They also have a number of adequate to decent minor league options.
If they do have someone in the minors with similar production and upside as Reed then I agree with you. Like I said I'm not real familiar with their farm system.
If not they are just eating up their savings on Pavano to sign a probably mediocre corner OFer. Seems like a pretty lateral move to me at best, which could support jcan's theory that they would like to deal Reed while he has value.
I Love Wang
12-13-05, 10:47 AM
If they do have someone in the minors with similar production and upside as Reed then I agree with you. Like I said I'm not real familiar with their farm system.
If not they are just eating up their savings on Pavano to sign a probably mediocre corner OFer. Seems like a pretty lateral move to me at best, which could support jcan's theory that they would like to deal Reed while he has value.
No, they're offering Reed because he's they're only good trade chip. They have a number of decent looking OFers in their system, and, as evidenced by last offseason, they really LIKE Pavano.
RhodeyYankee2638
12-13-05, 10:53 AM
No, they're offering Reed because he's they're only good trade chip. They have a number of decent looking OFers in their system, and, as evidenced by last offseason, they really LIKE Pavano.
We will take Felix Hernandez if they dont want him either
wileedog
12-13-05, 10:54 AM
No, they're offering Reed because he's they're only good trade chip.
But they don't have to trade him if they don't want to. The aforementioned Morris went to the Giants for 3/27. Even assuming the Yanks send cash with Pavano, they really wouldn't be saving all that much money.
They have a number of decent looking OFers in their system, and, as evidenced by last offseason, they really LIKE Pavano.
Well, there's no accounting for taste I suppose.... ;)
I Love Wang
12-13-05, 10:57 AM
But they don't have to trade him if they don't want to. The aforementioned Morris went to the Giants for 3/27. Even assuming the Yanks send cash with Pavano, they really wouldn't be saving all that much money.
Something like 3/21 is a lot of savings. And it could be more. Say, 3/18.
scull567
12-13-05, 11:04 AM
The chance that Pavano's entire deal is moved is minute. The chance that Clement's entire deal is moved is nonexistant. And, keep in mind, the Yankees have Pavano for 3/30, and that doesn't go as far as it used to. Weaver is probably going to get more than that, and I'd rather have Pavano than Weaver.
Clement only has 2 years left at 9 million each. Why do you claim that the chance someone would take on his deal is nonexistent while their is a chance that Pavano's entire deal could be moved?
wileedog
12-13-05, 11:09 AM
Something like 3/21 is a lot of savings. And it could be more. Say, 3/18.
You really think the Yanks would (or even should) pick up that much of Pavano's contract for a player with one full season in the bigs and a possible trick wrist?
Pavano is still owed $31M including the 09 buyout. $13M for a second year player is a lot of money. Heck, $10M is a lot.
guidry36
12-13-05, 11:32 AM
There is no reason to pay any of Pavano's salary. Reed would be an OK addition, but only if Pavano and 100% of his contract is moved. Reed's 33 doubles last year are a good sign. The low batting avarage wasn't.....but just being in the Yankee lineup should improve the #'s. Mattingly would make a difference. It would be best to pull the trigger on a deal now......after giving Kenny Rogers 2 years/$16 mil., Detroit's interest in Pavano has likely cooled.
JeffWeaverFan
12-13-05, 11:57 AM
It's simple for me: Reed's defense in CF helps our pitching staff more than Pavano in the rotation.
SoCal Pinstriper
12-13-05, 12:05 PM
Do you really think they want to put themselves in the very position we are in at CF? For Carl Pavano?Yes, they would be in the same position as it relates to CF, but it is important to see this in the overall context of the M's, and their situation in their market.
Going into 2004, they were comming off a nice 9 year run in which they won their division three times, finished second three times, and moved into a beautiful new park. Things, however, began to change in the AL West when, in 2002 and 2003, back to back 93 win seasons failed to yield a title.
63 wins in 2004 and 69 wins in 2005, the retirement of fan favorite Edgar Martinez, and the failure of the team to retain key FAs has led to a steady erosion of attendance.
Once one of the models of how to succede in a medium sized market (be competitive), the Ms are faced with a new reality that is made even more unpleasent by the presence of Arte Moreno and his committment to spend upwards of 100mil every year to keep the Angels competitive.
In short, while they are not necessarily desperate, they are definetly motivated to recoup some of their recent setbacks in their community.
When a prospective move doesn't necessarily make sense from a pure baseball standpoint, other circumstances surrounding the team usually explain it (see Marlins, Nats, Cubs).
wileedog
12-13-05, 12:26 PM
In short, while they are not necessarily desperate, they are definetly motivated to recoup some of their recent setbacks in their community.
When a prospective move doesn't necessarily make sense from a pure baseball standpoint, other circumstances surrounding the team usually explain it (see Marlins, Nats, Cubs).
I see your points.
However if the idea is to 'make a splash', they could do it just as effectively if they had persued Matt Morris, who is healthier than Pavano, or bite the bullet and spend some money on Washburn, who is a better pitcher. And neither would cost them a young CFer with upside who will save them a lot of money over the course of the next few years making the minimum.
And certainly Pavano languishing for a few months on the DL isn't going to do too much for putting fannies in the seats.
There's a difference between 'desperate' and 'not very smart'. Although I'm not completely ruling out the latter. As ILW pointed out they did seem pretty interested in him last year so who knows.
I Love Wang
12-13-05, 12:40 PM
You really think the Yanks would (or even should) pick up that much of Pavano's contract for a player with one full season in the bigs and a possible trick wrist?
Pavano is still owed $31M including the 09 buyout. $13M for a second year player is a lot of money. Heck, $10M is a lot.
We obviously wouldn't be responsible for the buyout. He's got 30 million left on his deal. I don't know what the Yankees would do. My point is that the fact that the Yankees have the ability to knock down his price may explain why the Mariners would be interested in this deal, for the people who are concluding that Reed must be hurt. But continue to put words in my mouth and attack those points instead, if that makes you feel better.
JeterRodriguezSheff
12-13-05, 01:55 PM
Clement only has 2 years left at 9 million each. Why do you claim that the chance someone would take on his deal is nonexistent while their is a chance that Pavano's entire deal could be moved?
Well one reason even though imo Clements actual value is higher than Pavano's actual value, for whatever reason(his sexy 2004, playoff tested in 2003, gets labeled as a winner) Pavanos perceived value is higher than Clements.(who teams see as a headcase)
jcan411
12-13-05, 01:58 PM
Well one reason even though imo Clements actual value is higher than Pavano's actual value, for whatever reason(his sexy 2004, playoff tested in 2003, gets labeled as a winner) Pavanos perceived value is higher than Clements.(who teams see as a headcase)
He is better. If you could have Pavano or Clement right now who would you take?
JeterRodriguezSheff
12-13-05, 02:11 PM
He is better. If you could have Pavano or Clement right now who would you take?
Clement easily. They have both been pretty crappy but Clement has better K numbers and allows less hits, his problem has been control which is easier to fix than not striking guys out and giving up too many hits.
goin for 27
12-13-05, 02:19 PM
Clement easily. They have both been pretty crappy but Clement has better K numbers and allows less hits, his problem has been control which is easier to fix than not striking guys out and giving up too many hits.
Agreed. He is cheaper and shorter term as well. I trade Pavano for Reed in a heartbeat. Pavano was a mistake. Cut the losses.
wileedog
12-13-05, 02:28 PM
We obviously wouldn't be responsible for the buyout. He's got 30 million left on his deal. I don't know what the Yankees would do. My point is that the fact that the Yankees have the ability to knock down his price may explain why the Mariners would be interested in this deal, for the people who are concluding that Reed must be hurt. But continue to put words in my mouth and attack those points instead, if that makes you feel better.
Just trying to have a conversation, ILW, not put words in your mouth.
Certainly Seattle may have come and offered Reed for Pavano with the stipulation that the Yankees pick up that much of his salary, in which case it is easy to see why Cashman declined the offer.
Or not. We don't know.
The deal just doesn't seem to make much sense to me for Seattle, especially considering there were/are still FA pitching options available comparable to Pavano when it was offered.
Obviously you disagree. I can live with that.
Every single scout who saw Reed play in '03 and '04 considered him to be a premier offensive prospect. Heck....take a look at the quotes from Baseball America a year ago today- half of baseball was predicting Reed to be the AL ROY.
So....the talent is there. Second round pick out of powerhouse Long Beach State, career .327 minor league hitter with a .401 OBA. As a 24-year old rookie, hit .254. If he NEVER improves, he is MUCH better than what the Yanks currently have considering his spectacular defense. However, he's likely to improve. Whether he fulfills his promise and becomes a .300 hitter with some pop and decent eye, he'll be a very, very good player.
I like Pavano.....but Pavano is what he is- an injury-prone starter who has talent but only one year of his career as a front line starter. If the Yanks could sign Washburn and make this trade, it would solve so many problems...
I Love Wang
12-13-05, 03:00 PM
The deal just doesn't seem to make much sense to me for Seattle, especially considering there were/are still FA pitching options available comparable to Pavano when it was offered.
The problem with this is I don't know who is running Seattle's scouting department, and what his opinions are. Maybe they REALLY like Pavano. They offered him a boatload of cash a year ago.
goin for 27
12-13-05, 03:00 PM
His wsirt might be fine after surgery, but I have read that wrist injuries are the most trciky injury for someone to get back to form from becuiase they involve so much motion and are so critical to bat swing/speed. That is my concern....
Some recover, but few are the same, and he wasn't that great to begin with
Are you having wrist problems typing? (kidding!)
Not so great to begin with? He was a rookie! His numbers are not even bad for a rookie, and he was hurt. The kid is a very solid player who has a chance to be the steal of the offseason.
Jeremy Reed is the answer to our CF problems.
SoCal Pinstriper
12-13-05, 04:11 PM
There's a difference between 'desperate' and 'not very smart'. Although I'm not completely ruling out the latter. See Beltre', Adrian.
wileedog
12-13-05, 04:11 PM
See Beltre', Adrian.
Touche
Bernie Inferno
12-13-05, 04:17 PM
The A's have acquired Milton Bradley from the Dodgers for one of their top prospects, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reports. Dec. 13 - 5:15 pm et
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playernews.asp?sport=MLB
Irabu's Son
12-13-05, 04:38 PM
The A's have acquired Milton Bradley from the Dodgers for one of their top prospects, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reports. Dec. 13 - 5:15 pm et
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playernews.asp?sport=MLB
Meh. Swell.
scull567
12-13-05, 04:38 PM
Not so great to begin with? He was a rookie! His numbers are not even bad for a rookie, and he was hurt. The kid is a very solid player who has a chance to be the steal of the offseason.
Definetely, he has a great minor league track record and already plays great defense. I could definetly see him putting up offensive numbers comparable to Damon in the next few years and he already plays great defense. Considering how he's on the upswing, doesnt make much, and the lack of other good options - Pavano for Reed is a no brainer imo. I would hope the Red Sox would explore trading for him before they attempt to sign Damon.
Munson's 'Stash
12-13-05, 05:04 PM
Clement easily. They have both been pretty crappy but Clement has better K numbers and allows less hits, his problem has been control which is easier to fix than not striking guys out and giving up too many hits.
Not to mention Pavano's suspect health. There is no team out of the remaining 28 that will look at the two and take Pavano over Clement without the Yankees paying a lot of the $. And buyouts are almost always payed by the "selling" team.
When Matt Morris makes $27M/3 yr, Clement at $18M/2 yrs looks OK. Pavano at $30M/3 yrs still looks risky.
The Sox are really out to undercut the Yankees attempts to get a CF. They'll either get Damon on short/ cheap $ (at least in a Boras relative universe) or go young with Reed. If they wind up with Reed Boras will likely try to sell Damon at a high price to the Yanks becasue "he's all that's left, you have no choice."
ANSKYcm
12-13-05, 06:16 PM
Yeha Pavano was a real inings eater last year. Morris is much more valueable than Pavano right now. Pavano's only been over 200 innings twice. He's almost 30 and was hurt most of last year, and even when he did pitch he was not very effective. Plus, he makes a ton of money. He's no value....
I'm not that big on Pavano, but I'm so sick of everyone acting like his career is over because he was injured last year. I'm just glad that Jeter didn't get hurt in 97 or 98. You would all be screaming about his lack of trade value and how his previous years were a fluke. Pavano, although not at young as Jeter in 97/98, is still pretty young for a pitcher who has won 18 games. Although he was considered a big contract last year, this year he would be a bargain. He is a better pitcher than Matt Morris, and is getting paid less than him. Pavano has shown that he can be an ace, and that gives him trade value. By saying that he has no trade value, you are obviously wrong, considering about 4 teams are interested in him, and the Mariners are actively trying to acquire.
ANSKYcm
12-13-05, 06:20 PM
Does anyone want to compare Melky Cabrera to Reed? I'm wondering who everyone thinks has more potential. I think if Cabrera has more potential, then we should focus more on a stopgap than a young CFer. I'm in favor of keeping Bubba in CF, and signing Nomar so that if Bubba fails, Nomar can go to left and Matsui to center. Do this just for 2006 and see how Cabrera does in AAA. If he falters in the minors, scan the FA market next winter for CF, im sure there are better options than this year, even if its by trade.
I'm not that big on Pavano, but I'm so sick of everyone acting like his career is over because he was injured last year. I'm just glad that Jeter didn't get hurt in 97 or 98. You would all be screaming about his lack of trade value and how his previous years were a fluke. Pavano, although not at young as Jeter in 97/98, is still pretty young for a pitcher who has won 18 games. Although he was considered a big contract last year, this year he would be a bargain. He is a better pitcher than Matt Morris, and is getting paid less than him. Pavano has shown that he can be an ace, and that gives him trade value. By saying that he has no trade value, you are obviously wrong, considering about 4 teams are interested in him, and the Mariners are actively trying to acquire.
1. In addition to 2005, Pavano wasn't healthy in 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003.
2. Morris will make 3/27. Pavano got 4/39.5. Without discussing their relative abilities, Pavano makes more than Morris.
metalboy15
12-13-05, 06:30 PM
I've read all the threads and articles clamoring for a Pavano/Reed swap, but I honestly can't see why we want Reed? Admittedly, I don't watch many west coast games. What I've gathered from people here is that he's a spectacular defender, and of course he's young and cheap.
ESPN's scouting report Link (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/scouting?statsId=7284) confuses the heck out of me, because none of it matches anything I know about him. According to them, he hits for great power, but his defense is questionable? I don't put a lot of stock in ESPN, so if anyone has a better report on him I'd love to read it.
His stats make me wary though. From what I can see he doesn't hit for power, doesn't hit for average, and doesn't get on base. In fact, his offensive production is almost identical to Crosby's. His numbers over the course of 18 games in 2004 look great, however. Does anyone have his minor league numbers? Did he hit well there?
I'm not against the guy, just uninformed. Please enlighten me. Why do we want Reed?
cause he was the best CF in the league last season (if you dont beleive me see the zone rating stat that can be found in espn.com), plus he will only get better, he´s only 24, dont worry the hitting will come. Cash get this guy! i dont care if it is for Pavano.
metalboy15
12-13-05, 06:48 PM
plus if we do not trade Pavano and he does well (which is unrealistic) in 2006 he´s only helping the team by himself, but having Reed makes all of our pitchers (12 or 11) more effective.
goin for 27
12-13-05, 08:08 PM
I'm not that big on Pavano, but I'm so sick of everyone acting like his career is over because he was injured last year. I'm just glad that Jeter didn't get hurt in 97 or 98. You would all be screaming about his lack of trade value and how his previous years were a fluke. Pavano, although not at young as Jeter in 97/98, is still pretty young for a pitcher who has won 18 games. Although he was considered a big contract last year, this year he would be a bargain. He is a better pitcher than Matt Morris, and is getting paid less than him. Pavano has shown that he can be an ace, and that gives him trade value. By saying that he has no trade value, you are obviously wrong, considering about 4 teams are interested in him, and the Mariners are actively trying to acquire.
I think people worry because not only he was hurt last year, he was hurt (and missed significant time) every year from 2002 back to 1999, with two other 60 Day DL stints, in addition to the Yankees debacle.. He is injury prone. He is also not a very good pitcher to begin with, just had one great season. I am sure that you realize that wins is a pretty useless measure of a pitcher. (Though he had a great year that one season) I think that he in fact does have some trade value, and the Yanks should exercise that. If Pavano struggles this season, even before the deadline, he will be as movable as Jaret Wright.
Huktonfonix
12-13-05, 08:46 PM
One thing nobody's mentioning in all the "wtf does seattle want with pavano?" discussion is that he'd have a much better chance to replicate his 04 performance in that park than in yankee stadium. Seattle has a huge outfield, similar to what Pavano had in Miami.
JapanJobbers
12-13-05, 11:46 PM
One thing nobody's mentioning in all the "wtf does seattle want with pavano?" discussion is that he'd have a much better chance to replicate his 04 performance in that park than in yankee stadium. Seattle has a huge outfield, similar to what Pavano had in Miami.
I think the M's FO believes that Pavano would excel in Safeco. Nobody seems to know who would be playing in CF if Reed is traded though. It would create a huge hole for them.
I just think a lot of people will fail to see the big picture if by June, Pavano is in Seattle at 8-3 with a 3.7 ERA, Reed is catching the ball but hitting like Bubba and either Wang, Chacon or Wright is off to a brutal start.
JeffWeaverFan
12-14-05, 01:08 AM
I just think a lot of people will fail to see the big picture if by June, Pavano is in Seattle at 8-3 with a 3.7 ERA, Reed is catching the ball but hitting like Bubba and either Wang, Chacon or Wright is off to a brutal start.
And I also think that people are failing to see the big picture that Pavano, in the AL East with the Yankees, is a 4.40 ERA type guy that has been a league average pitcher for his entire career and has had a ton of injuries. Plus, people fail to see the big picture that we can't go into next season with Bubba/Bernie as the two CFers on the team. We did that last year and it was predictably horrible.
NYDCYankee
12-14-05, 02:21 AM
I am going to assume this is the "All Things J Reed thread". So I will post this hear.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/251964_mari14.html
Reed's name bandied in Boston, New York
By JON PAUL MOROSI
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER
If trade talks always begat trade execution, Jeremy Reed would be property of the Oakland Athletics.
Or the Boston Red Sox.
Or the New York Yankees.
The Mariners center fielder was a topic of conversation at the baseball winter meetings last week in Dallas, largely due to his above-average defense and major league-minimum salary. His name resurfaced this week, as the Boston Globe reported Tuesday that Reed could be an inexpensive replacement for free agent Red Sox center fielder Johnny Damon.
Reed, 24, has spent the offseason working out in Southern California. His agent, Paul Cohen, reported no ill effects from the uncertainty.
"So far, so good," Cohen said. "If it dragged on, it may wear on him. The hard part is his friends. A hundred times a day, they're asking him, 'What's happening?'
"He's veteran enough to understand it. If (the Mariners) feel they need starting pitching, he's a movable commodity. He's already been traded once. He gets it."
While Oakland's trade for Milton Bradley on Tuesday means the Bay Area is no longer a potential destination, the prospect of Boston and New York competing for his services makes a deal more likely.
"He'd love to stay (in Seattle)," Cohen said, "but he knows he could be moved at any time."
NYDCYankee
12-14-05, 02:24 AM
This article focuses on Reed going to Boston for Clement.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2002682291_mari14.html
I have a funny feeling whoever doesnt end up with Damon will end up with Reed.
dabomb2045
12-14-05, 02:25 AM
I'm starting to get the feeling the Yanks will end up with Damon.....call it a hunch
NYDCYankee
12-14-05, 03:17 AM
I'm starting to get the feeling the Yanks will end up with Damon.....call it a hunch
Ya know I think you are right. The fact that the Seattle Time article I posted says that a Reed-Clement deal was discussed yesterday makes me think Boston might be thinking they are not going to find an agreement with Damon.
bronxbomberz212
12-14-05, 03:42 AM
i think we should get someone to email cashmen all the threads we have the are about a pavano for reed trade. tell him it's what the fans want!!! no damon and his below average defense. if cashmens thing is to get younger and better defensively and such damon is not the man for the job!!!! christ i'd rather haver bernie patrolling center than damon!!!
Does anyone want to compare Melky Cabrera to Reed? I'm wondering who everyone thinks has more potential. I think if Cabrera has more potential, then we should focus more on a stopgap than a young CFer. I'm in favor of keeping Bubba in CF, and signing Nomar so that if Bubba fails, Nomar can go to left and Matsui to center. Do this just for 2006 and see how Cabrera does in AAA. If he falters in the minors, scan the FA market next winter for CF, im sure there are better options than this year, even if its by trade.
Personally, I have been following the Yankees minor league system for over 25 years. I ahve followed that Yankees religiously for over 38 years.
Melky was rushed last year. He will be 21 this year, and should benefit from a full season in AAA. Then, in 2007, at the ripe old age of 22, he will be ready to patrol CF for the Yankees.
I see him as a .280-.300 hitter, but not a batting champion that others have predicted. Some speed, but not a blazer like an Ichiro or Pierre. Very good arm. Not a cannon, but a good throwing arm. Gets a good read on a fly ball and line drives. I know he flunked in NY last year, but he was in over his head, at age 20, with 60+ games experience above A level ball. But in 2007, at age 22, with some 300 games above A level, he will be fine.
He has HR power, but not a slugger. Should level off in the 20+ range.
NYDCYankee
12-14-05, 06:11 AM
Personally, I have been following the Yankees minor league system for over 25 years. I ahve followed that Yankees religiously for over 38 years.
Melky was rushed last year. He will be 21 this year, and should benefit from a full season in AAA. Then, in 2007, at the ripe old age of 22, he will be ready to patrol CF for the Yankees.
I see him as a .280-.300 hitter, but not a batting champion that others have predicted. Some speed, but not a blazer like an Ichiro or Pierre. Very good arm. Not a cannon, but a good throwing arm. Gets a good read on a fly ball and line drives. I know he flunked in NY last year, but he was in over his head, at age 20, with 60+ games experience above A level ball. But in 2007, at age 22, with some 300 games above A level, he will be fine.
He has HR power, but not a slugger. Should level off in the 20+ range.
Sounds like Coco Crisp or Milton Bradley. Is that a fair assessment?
noneckwilliams
12-14-05, 06:17 AM
Personally, I have been following the Yankees minor league system for over 25 years. I ahve followed that Yankees religiously for over 38 years.
Melky was rushed last year. He will be 21 this year, and should benefit from a full season in AAA. Then, in 2007, at the ripe old age of 22, he will be ready to patrol CF for the Yankees.
.
Except by then they Yankees will have signed Johnny Damon to a 5 year contract to patrol CF.
NYDCYankee
12-14-05, 06:39 AM
Except by then they Yankees will have signed Johnny Damon to a 5 year contract to patrol CF.
I really think the Yankees will slide him to left in 2 years or so.
goin for 27
12-14-05, 07:48 AM
Except by then they Yankees will have signed Johnny Damon to a 5 year contract to patrol CF.
Don't even say it!
I have been on the "bring Damon to NY" bandwagon since the year ended. I think that he would be a great addition, and play quite well here. However, I would overpay a bit for a 3 year deal. Will he decline a touch? Likely, but will still be a great player. 4th year onward? No way. I can't believe that the Yanks would do this, after doing essentially nothing all off-season.
jcan411
12-14-05, 09:09 AM
I just think a lot of people will fail to see the big picture if by June, Pavano is in Seattle at 8-3 with a 3.7 ERA, Reed is catching the ball but hitting like Bubba and either Wang, Chacon or Wright is off to a brutal start.
i agree with this completely. It seems to me that this guy might have been great in th eminors, but he was consistently mediocre during the season. Pavano though has little to no real trade value in my opinion. If its clement or pavano, i bet Reed goes to the Red Sox, and to be honest I would be happy. The reason being that it would be an easy out every time the guy came to the plate....
ANSKYcm
12-14-05, 09:30 AM
Personally, I have been following the Yankees minor league system for over 25 years. I ahve followed that Yankees religiously for over 38 years.
Melky was rushed last year. He will be 21 this year, and should benefit from a full season in AAA. Then, in 2007, at the ripe old age of 22, he will be ready to patrol CF for the Yankees.
I see him as a .280-.300 hitter, but not a batting champion that others have predicted. Some speed, but not a blazer like an Ichiro or Pierre. Very good arm. Not a cannon, but a good throwing arm. Gets a good read on a fly ball and line drives. I know he flunked in NY last year, but he was in over his head, at age 20, with 60+ games experience above A level ball. But in 2007, at age 22, with some 300 games above A level, he will be fine.
He has HR power, but not a slugger. Should level off in the 20+ range.
From what you've said, I would much rather keep Bubba in CF or Nomar in left and Matsui in center for a year or two, than to go out and trade for a young CF or especially sign Damon. I think that a .280 20 22 year old making the league minimum in 2007 is much better than a 34 year old Johnny Damon who's getting paid 12-13 a year for that year and until he's 36-37 (Bernie's age).
Wrist injuries can be career threatening. not in the vein of having to sit out for the rest of your career, but not beeing able to be even close to your normal projection (which was his case) for the rest of your career. Look at nomar (although there are many others). the wrist injury can drastically alter your ability to swing in your normal mechanics, and can weaken the swing to hurt bat speed.
It's obvious that any number of GMs agree with your conclusion, whether or not your reasoning is what got them there. Otherwise the Ms would have traded Reed already. However, two notable hitters come to mind on the wrist front: Johnson is hitting very well now, in spite of numerous seasons with wrist and/or hand injuries and Nomar may not have been challenging Alex and Barry after his wrist injury, but he was still hitting for average and a good number of HRs when he'd recovered.
ANSKYcm
12-14-05, 09:43 AM
It's obvious that any number of GMs agree with your conclusion, whether or not your reasoning is what got them there. Otherwise the Ms would have traded Reed already. However, two notable hitters come to mind on the wrist front: Johnson is hitting very well now, in spite of numerous seasons with wrist and/or hand injuries and Nomar may not have been challenging Alex and Barry after his wrist injury, but he was still hitting for average and a good number of HRs when he'd recovered.
But neither are close to what their ability is. Johnson was supposed to be the next Frank Thomas in his prime, and we've all seen what Nomar can do.
It's obvious that any number of GMs agree with your conclusion, whether or not your reasoning is what got them there. Otherwise the Ms would have traded Reed already.
That assumes that the M's are trying to get rid of Reed. The reason why he's considered tradeable is not because he's not wanted, but because the team has other holes that they're trying to fill. This isn't a salary dump issue or anything like that.
Yankees1962
12-14-05, 09:55 AM
That assumes that the M's are trying to get rid of Reed. The reason why he's considered tradeable is not because he's not wanted, but because the team has other holes that they're trying to fill. This isn't a salary dump issue or anything like that.
Or maybe, they figured out Reed is not as good as some around here think he is?
Or maybe, they figured out Reed is not as good as some around here think he is?
He'd have to be pretty bad not to be worth what he's being paid.
This thread is definitely subject to the usual wishful thinking of a fanbase - Pavano will obviously improve and Reed is obviously done for. A M's website puts forth the opposite idea re a proposed Clement for Reed trade here - http://ussmariner.com/?p=3183 .
The Dynasty
12-14-05, 11:05 AM
i agree with this completely. It seems to me that this guy might have been great in th eminors, but he was consistently mediocre during the season. Pavano though has little to no real trade value in my opinion. If its clement or pavano, i bet Reed goes to the Red Sox, and to be honest I would be happy. The reason being that it would be an easy out every time the guy came to the plate....
I dunno about that. The kid's just getting used to the majors (breaking balls, better pitchers, etc.). It's hard to believe that with those numbers in the minors (in addition to the fact that he wasn't HORRIBLE at the plate) and his young age, that he won't get better. Heck, with his defense in CF, I don't mind waiting a year to see him improve.
I'm still nervous about trading Pavano because when healthy, he's pretty damn solid. But if we can get the likes of Reed and Soriano for Pavano, I'm all for it.
JeffWeaverFan
12-14-05, 11:07 AM
Melky was rushed last year. He will be 21 this year, and should benefit from a full season in AAA. Then, in 2007, at the ripe old age of 22, he will be ready to patrol CF for the Yankees.
I see him as a .280-.300 hitter, but not a batting champion that others have predicted. Some speed, but not a blazer like an Ichiro or Pierre. Very good arm. Not a cannon, but a good throwing arm. Gets a good read on a fly ball and line drives. I know he flunked in NY last year, but he was in over his head, at age 20, with 60+ games experience above A level ball. But in 2007, at age 22, with some 300 games above A level, he will be fine.
He has HR power, but not a slugger. Should level off in the 20+ range.
I've heard that as he grows into his body, he will slow down and won't be able to play CF.
Yankees1962
12-14-05, 11:13 AM
I've heard that as he grows into his body, he will slow down and won't be able to play CF.
What difference does that make because by then the Yankees will have somebody else ready to take over like Jackson, Tabata or somebody not even on our radar screen yet?
JeffWeaverFan
12-14-05, 11:30 AM
What difference does that make because by then the Yankees will have somebody else ready to take over like Jackson, Tabata or somebody not even on our radar screen yet?
Well, Melky's ETA is 2007, and those guys aren't going to be ready until mid 2008 or 2009 I would think. I think Brett Gardner is our hope after Melky.
Melky, while certainly projecting as a major league offensive player, is unlikely to be a very good CF. Not from what we saw last year- he had a terrible day game and it got to his head. I don't draw any conclusions from that. I do draw it from his skill set- he is not that fast, and from reports I've seen he doesn't get terrific initial reads.
He will likely be a pretty decent corner guy, who they WILL need in a year or two.
Anyway, with regard to Reed- he hit .250 in his rookie season. He had a few protracted slumps. When you look at his history, going back to college, he was a premiere player at every spot. Played for a national power in college, was a high draft pick, and tore through the minors with excellent numbers everywhere.
Is the wrist injury a little concerning? Yes, but mostly on the possibility of recurrence. Seriously....who has it REALLY hurt? Back issues are one thing. Wrist issues, while lingering, tend to clear up pretty good. Look a little closer at Nomar- he had some excellent seasons after the wrist injury- and most of his issues can be attributed to other ailments since. Griffey had wrist and hand issues, and was fine. And Johnson has turned into a very good hitter after singificant wrist problems.
I don't think that a player can be regarded so highly around baseball on his ascent to the majors and fall off a cliff for a rookie season of .250.
He is a better pitcher than Matt Morris, and is getting paid less than him. Pavano has shown that he can be an ace, and that gives him trade value.
An ace? Pavano is making $1MM more/year than Morris ($30M for years versus Morris' $27MM for three years).
But neither are close to what their ability is. Johnson was supposed to be the next Frank Thomas in his prime, and we've all seen what Nomar can do.
Johnson and Nomar are still both very good hitters, though, and both have hit for power after their injuries. Nomar's injuries more recently have been in his groin and are therefore not likely to have been caused by his wrist in any way.
That assumes that the M's are trying to get rid of Reed. The reason why he's considered tradeable is not because he's not wanted, but because the team has other holes that they're trying to fill. This isn't a salary dump issue or anything like that.
Yes, you're absolutely correct.
BronxBaumer
12-14-05, 03:10 PM
Or maybe, they figured out Reed is not as good as some around here think he is?
Bernie looked like ................ when he first came up too..i'm glad we didn't trade him for Carl Pavano...or whatever would have been the equivilent at the time.
NYDCYankee
12-15-05, 03:28 AM
http://www.courant.com/sports/baseball/hc-yankees1215.artdec15,0,7620810.story?coll=hc-headlines-baseball
Waiting in the wings with a consolation prize are the Mariners with Reed, who hit .254 as a rookie last year. The Mariners need pitching, and lost out on free agents Carl Pavano and Matt Clement last winter. Now, they are interested in trading Reed to the Yankees for Pavano, who has three years and $30 million left on his contract, or to the Red Sox for Clement, who has two years and about $17 million left. Those contracts seem like bargains since A.J. Burnett signed a five-year, $55 million contract with the Blue Jays, leaving free agents such as Jarrod Washburn, Kevin Millwood and Jeff Weaver in strong bargaining positions. All three are also Boras clients.
Since Reed is hardly a proven commodity, the Yankees, who have unproven Bubba Crosby at the top of their current depth chart, are not inclined to trade Pavano for him. If they can sign Damon, they would force the Red Sox to scramble to fill their center field vacancy.
The scarcity of center fielders has created a coast-to-coast game of musical chairs that works increasingly in Damon's favor. The Dodgers traded Milton Bradley to the A's, creating an opening for which they are eyeing Damon. The A's say they are not interested in trading Mark Kotsay, who played center for them last season.
goin for 27
12-15-05, 06:59 AM
Since Reed is hardly a proven commodity, the Yankees, who have unproven Bubba Crosby at the top of their current depth chart, are not inclined to trade Pavano for him. If they can sign Damon, they would force the Red Sox to scramble to fill their center field vacancy.
Who the heck is this writer? Reed was a rookie last year with an injured wrist, and still managed to be so-so at the plate, this after dominating in the minor leagues. He was also the highest rated defensive CF'er in the American League, in a huge outfield. Oh, and he was in MLB at age 24. Bubba will be a 30 year old retread next year. Geez.
Yankees1962
12-15-05, 07:30 AM
Who the heck is this writer? Reed was a rookie last year with an injured wrist, and still managed to be so-so at the plate, this after dominating in the minor leagues. He was also the highest rated defensive CF'er in the American League, in a huge outfield. Oh, and he was in MLB at age 24. Bubba will be a 30 year old retread next year. Geez.
Reed is still an unproven ML player with some defensive skills.
goin for 27
12-15-05, 07:40 AM
Reed is still an unproven ML player with some defensive skills.
No doubt, but it was because he was a rookie. He mashed in AAA, and was not abysmal playing the whole year with a writst injury. And he does not have "some defensive skills", the highest rated CF in the AL. Put it this way, I think that their trade value are at polar opposites. Crosby is had for a PTBNL, if the Yanks want to move him.
I would say that Reed is THE move to make for the Yankees, if they plan on going past 3 years for Damon, which clearly has to happen to obtain him
MTYankee23
12-15-05, 08:09 AM
The problem now becomes if Damon signs with the Dodgers, then we have to get in a bidding war with the Red Sox who have a deeper farm system at the upper levels than we do, not to mention more veteran players that can be used in trade.
jcan411
12-15-05, 09:02 AM
The problem now becomes if Damon signs with the Dodgers, then we have to get in a bidding war with the Red Sox who have a deeper farm system at the upper levels than we do, not to mention more veteran players that can be used in trade.
I agree to some level. I think that Damon is great friends with Mueller and so it would make it more likely that he will sign with the dodgers. This would then, obviously, It would create major holes on two major teams with major payroles.
However, I would love, love, love for the sox to get Reed and not us. Reed is a BLACK HOLE int he lineup. I cannot wait to face the sox and see him come up. he will be an automatic rally killer.
It will also make the Yanks to have to get more creative (a la AROD) which is a good thing. you push this team to the brink and we get someone that will be very good.....
BronxBaumer
12-15-05, 11:43 AM
I would desperately take Reed...I think they've got a future .300/.400/.500 player there that needs patience...I've seen this guy play. He's got good wheels and has presence at the plate. He'd be well worth Pavano...
NewEraYanks2527
12-15-05, 12:01 PM
Who the heck is this writer? Reed was a rookie last year with an injured wrist, and still managed to be so-so at the plate, this after dominating in the minor leagues. He was also the highest rated defensive CF'er in the American League, in a huge outfield. Oh, and he was in MLB at age 24. Bubba will be a 30 year old retread next year. Geez.
It's some Hartford Courant write, I think George King my have more credibility than anyone who writes sports for the Hartford Courant.
Melky, while certainly projecting as a major league offensive player, is unlikely to be a very good CF. Not from what we saw last year- he had a terrible day game and it got to his head. I don't draw any conclusions from that. I do draw it from his skill set- he is not that fast, and from reports I've seen he doesn't get terrific initial reads.
He will likely be a pretty decent corner guy, who they WILL need in a year or two.
I'm not nearly as sold on his bat at a corner spot as some others are. I thought he had a B- year with the bat 2 years ago in the FSL and a C+ year last year in AA (from a projection standpoint that is, comparing OBP, SLG, SEC, etc to league averages and adjusting for age). That ain't gonna carry a corner spot.
Signing Damon makes the Yankees losers.
The Sox will replace him by trading Clement to Seattle for Reed and Mateo. The Sox may then have a bolstered bullpen and could easily sign Washburn or Millwood.
Thus Damon will be a better CF next year, but by 2007 Reed will be superior is almost every way.
Signing Damon makes the Yankees losers.
The Sox will replace him by trading Clement to Seattle for Reed and Mateo. The Sox may then have a bolstered bullpen and could easily sign Washburn or Millwood.
Thus Damon will be a better CF next year, but by 2007 Reed will be superior is almost every way.
So why don't we just deal Pavano for Reed and Mateo or Soriano (throw in Melky to get the deal done)?? Please Cash, don't choose Damon over this!!
I'm not nearly as sold on his bat at a corner spot as some others are. I thought he had a B- year with the bat 2 years ago in the FSL and a C+ year last year in AA (from a projection standpoint that is, comparing OBP, SLG, SEC, etc to league averages and adjusting for age). That ain't gonna carry a corner spot.
To be fair, he's been pretty young at most of his levels. At some level, he will need to start to put up better than average numbers to really project, but as a just-turned-21 year old I don't know that it's a terrible stretch to see progress in his skill set and say he could/should be a major league player.
Many players don't develop power until right around his age....if he doesn't develop that skill, he likely won't be worthy of a corner spot.
So why don't we just deal Pavano for Reed and Mateo or Soriano (throw in Melky to get the deal done)?? Please Cash, don't choose Damon over this!!
Not sure about Soriano's latest health report....but if he is somewhat healthy that would be a no-brainer. But he's a major health risk.
wileedog
12-15-05, 01:01 PM
I'm not nearly as sold on his bat at a corner spot as some others are. I thought he had a B- year with the bat 2 years ago in the FSL and a C+ year last year in AA (from a projection standpoint that is, comparing OBP, SLG, SEC, etc to league averages and adjusting for age). That ain't gonna carry a corner spot.
I'm thinking his greatest value to the Yankees will be as a trade chip.
NYDCYankee
12-16-05, 02:36 AM
Talks accelerate with Sox for Reed
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2002686582_mari16.html
While the Mariners are in pursuit of Jarrod Washburn, Kevin Millwood and Scott Elarton, with an emphasis on Washburn, their efforts on Sidney Ponson are thought to be stalled at this time.
Meanwhile, they are running a parallel bid to acquire a starting pitcher in trade with Boston, which called to offer right-hander Matt Clement for Mariners center fielder Jeremy Reed. Sources say those discussions have accelerated.
According to multiple sources, Seattle is believed to have countered the Red Sox's offer of Clement with a request for right-hander Bronson Arroyo.
One East Coast source suggested a scenario in which Boston might make a deal even if it hasn't reached resolution in efforts to re-sign free agent center fielder Johnny Damon. But that seems unlikely.
RIYankeeFan
12-18-05, 12:22 AM
Well now that the Sox are close to getting Crisp, do you think we can pry Reed away? Surely we can offer a better package than Brandon.
AMYanks
12-18-05, 12:37 AM
Well now that the Sox are close to getting Crisp, do you think we can pry Reed away? Surely we can offer a better package than Brandon.
I doubt it. Cashman loves Pavano too much. Perhaps they would do Small + Wright for Reed. :D ;)
goin for 27
12-18-05, 01:41 AM
Well now that the Sox are close to getting Crisp, do you think we can pry Reed away? Surely we can offer a better package than Brandon.
I am not sure that the Sox are getting close to Crisp.
Yankeeah
12-18-05, 11:10 AM
Well now that the Sox are close to getting Crisp, do you think we can pry Reed away? Surely we can offer a better package than Brandon.
Didn't that depend on Nomar signing with Cleveland?
ring403
12-18-05, 11:33 AM
I am not sure that the Sox are getting close to Crisp.They're not.
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2005/12/18/crisp_turnover_unlikely/
While the Sox have talked with the Indians about dealing for 26-year-old Coco Crisp -- who could play any of the outfield positions and hit leadoff or second -- it appears unlikely that Cleveland will deal the sure-handed and switch-hitting Crisp.
The Indians, according to a club official, have been contacted by many teams interested in Crisp, but have not come close to moving him.
Cleveland is high on Crisp, who hit .300 with 16 homers and 69 RBIs while making $365,000 last season, and the team is in need of outfield depth. It is pursuing Nomar Garciaparra, who, if signed, would likely play right field, Casey Blake's position.
ring403
12-18-05, 11:49 AM
Boston is not close on Reed either.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2002690176_mari18.html
With the pending acquisition of Washburn at a cost of $9 million a year, the Mariners are believed to have focused their efforts on right-hander Bronson Arroyo.
Arroyo made $1.85 million last season, and was 14-10 with a 4.51 ERA in 32 starts. He is arbitration-eligible and could be a free agent after 2006.
The Sox had been offering right-hander Matt Clement, who will make $19 million over the next two years. The Mariners likely could not take on that payroll unless they moved pitcher Gil Meche in the deal.
Seattle is also believed to have expressed interest in two of Boston's top pitching prospects, Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon. But the Red Sox have been reluctant to discuss either in any trade scenarios.
RhodeyYankee2638
12-18-05, 11:50 AM
They're not.
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2005/12/18/crisp_turnover_unlikely/
I believe the Indians would want Marte, perhaps. I'd love to see the Sox get rid of him, he is going to be very good
To be fair, he's been pretty young at most of his levels. At some level, he will need to start to put up better than average numbers to really project, but as a just-turned-21 year old I don't know that it's a terrible stretch to see progress in his skill set and say he could/should be a major league player.
Many players don't develop power until right around his age....if he doesn't develop that skill, he likely won't be worthy of a corner spot.
I graded him out as a B- two years ago and a C+ last year with the bat relative to his league adjusted for age. 2003 was worse. He's going to have to take a substantial step forward for me to even look at him as a guy who could play regularly in center without being a very good defender, let alone at a corner spot.
Munson's 'Stash
12-18-05, 12:48 PM
I doubt it. Cashman loves Pavano too much. Perhaps they would do Small + Wright for Reed. :D ;)
Thanks, I needed a good laugh this morning.
The Sox had been offering right-hander Matt Clement, who will make $19 million over the next two years. The Mariners likely could not take on that payroll unless they moved pitcher Gil Meche in the deal.
Which really rules out Pavano in a deal. I think the Sox have less money on the table to Damon than has been reported (I've seen their offer as high as $44M/4 yrs); it would fit with their FO's current "blow em up" tendancy (with the downside being that returning players are all younger). The only reason the Sox haven't publically told Damon to walk is becasue the Yankees are his most likely landing spot and he wants them to pay through the nose for him. Damon really can't complain about their lack of an offer because it would kill his market (why would the Yankees go to more $/yrs if there isn't a good offer on the table?). The Sox are looking at alternative young CF's, but they probably won't make a deal until after Damon signs.
NYDCYankee
12-20-05, 02:22 AM
Looks like Reed will go to the loser (winner?) of the Damon sweepstakes.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2002693075_marinotes20.html
Even with Jarrod Washburn in the rotation, the Mariners are still in the trade market for another starting pitcher.
And while outfielder Jeremy Reed may be the leading candidate to go in any deal, the Boston Red Sox aren't the only possible destination.
An industry source maintains that the New York Yankees are another possible trading partner.
"Watch the situation with Johnny Damon," the source said. "Seattle could wind up trading Reed to the club that doesn't get Damon to play center."
Damon, represented by agent Scott Boras, is known to have been offered $40 million over four years to return to Boston, far short of the $66 million over seven years he is said to have expected. But New York, seemingly in need of an upgrade over Bubba Crosby in center, has not been involved in talks yet of any significance.
Weeks ago, the Yankees reportedly claimed they rated Crosby no worse than on a par with Reed, so trade talks were downplayed.
However, there is some viability to a Mariners-Yankees swap, although Seattle's need for rotation help would not seem a fit with New York.
Yet a second source said that Seattle, even with Washburn getting $37.5 million over four years, might be willing to take on a pitcher with a sizeable salary.
That could be the Red Sox's Matt Clement or the Yankees' Carl Pavano. But more to the Mariners' liking and payroll situation would be the Red Sox's Bronson Arroyo, who made $1.85 million in 2005 and is not eligible for free agency for three more seasons, or the Yankees' Chien-Ming Wang, who was a rookie in 2005.
JapanJobbers
12-20-05, 02:51 AM
The M's are at their budge with the pathetic signing of Washburn so I don't think they would want either Clement or Pavano now.
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