View Full Version : GothamBaseball Rumor: JoPo, Duncan, Pavano for Abreu and Lieberthal
http://www.gothambaseball.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1607
Take it for what it is worth.
If they throw in Jason Michaels and take Womack, they've got a deal. :P
AMYanks
11-28-05, 10:18 PM
Hmm... that's tough. Depends on how much of Pavano's contract they take.
Wait, I gotta go checkout Lieberthal's stats. BRB...
EDIT: He's barely above average for his career and was below average last year. The Phills better be taking alot of Pavano's contract.
BTW anyone know how good he is defensively?
AMYanks
11-28-05, 10:20 PM
Wait, I gotta go checkout Lieberthal's contract. BRB...
He makes less than Posada in '06, and doesn't have an '07 guaranteed option, like Posada will eventually get.
yanksphan
11-28-05, 10:22 PM
Bobby Abreu of
5 years/$64M (2003-07), plus $16M 2008 club option
$3M signing bonus
03:$8.5M, 04:$10M, 05:$12.5M, 06:$13M, 07:$15M, 08:$16M club option ($2M buyout)
complete NTC
MVP incentive: $0.275M for 1st, $0.15M for 2nd, $0.1M for 3rd
3 years/$14.2M (2000-02)
$1M signing bonus, 00:$2.6M, 01:$4.65, 02:$6M
ML service: 7.165
Mike Lieberthal c
3 years/$23.5M (2003-05), plus 2006 vesting option
03:$7.25M, 04:$7.5M, 05:$7.5M, 06:$7.5M option ($1.25M buyout)
Lieberthal needs 110 more PAs in 2005 to guarantee 2006 salary
2006 option vests with:
1,200 PAs, 2003-05; or
850 PAs, 2004-05; or
475 PAs in 2005.
signed extension 8/02
3 years/$19M (2000-02), plus $7.25M 2003 club option
$1M signing bonus
00:$4.5M, 01:$6M, 02:$7M, 03:$7.25M club option ($0.5M buyout)
2003 option vests with 500 PAs in 2002
ML service: 10.005
Bernie Inferno
11-28-05, 10:23 PM
Interesting, they don't have a need for Womack with Utley at 2nd however.
YankeePride1967
11-28-05, 10:24 PM
I never heard of this site. Are they a reliable source?
buntsalot2
11-28-05, 10:24 PM
Interesting, they don't have a need for Womack with Utley at 2nd however.
throw Wowmack in anyway! :P
AMYanks
11-28-05, 10:24 PM
I never heard of this site. Are they a reliable source?
I don't usually visit their site, but I've heard of them. I don't think this has much substance, to be honest. Just something they made up.
I never heard of this site. Are they a reliable source?
They have a large and diverse staff. You should ask ctan about it, she writes for them.
yanksphan
11-28-05, 10:28 PM
The guy Mark Healy who wrote the story there posts here occasionally as well.
AMYanks
11-28-05, 10:29 PM
Thinking about it, I'd either want a solid prospect added to the deal from the Phillies in return, or for them to pay a lot of the salary.
Healy used to work at WFAN so perhaps he still has a contact or two. This is a pretty massive deal, but anything is possible.
Beast Master
11-28-05, 10:33 PM
I don't know if you do that trade. Abreu is awesome, and they're taking some money, but lieberthal isn't so hot and posada is so sentimentally appealing. But the upside on pavano is big, and he's pretyy important insurance if you don't believe that sea level will really be that good, or that the low K rate will catch up with wang. I guess I'd do pavano and posada, but including duncan seems a bit of a stretch. Maybe I'm just being sentimental, but I also don't want to get caught without enough pitching this year.
Yankyfan
11-28-05, 10:34 PM
Around the Majors has a rumor of Abreu going to Baltimore.
Evil Empire
11-28-05, 10:34 PM
I don't like it. Is Lieberthal better than Posada? And do we want to give up Duncan?
yanksphan
11-28-05, 10:34 PM
Thinking about it, I'd either want a solid prospect added to the deal from the Phillies in return, or for them to pay a lot of the salary.
Pavano + Posada = $54 million
Abreu + Lieb = $51.5 or $37.5 (Abreu $2mil buyout in 08)
Duncan really is the X-Factor here.
Yanks21
11-28-05, 10:35 PM
I don't see this happening. I can't see the Phillies being interested in Posada's contract. Anyhow...
Lieberthal would be an upgrade defensively. However, his knees aren't in the greatest condition. They would need another catcher to help handle the load. He also had well known issues with Joe Kerrigan...
Abreu could possibly handle CF...
buntsalot2
11-28-05, 10:35 PM
I don't usually visit their site, but I've heard of them. I don't think this has much substance, to be honest. Just something they made up.
if anything, at least this is food for thought. let's face it, anything in this site is just as fluid or as solid as you want it to be. we all want to be the fly on Ca$hman's wall. guessing is only part of the fun of the off season. anyone taking anyone else or themselves too seriously is likely to have a stash of wooden nickels. the off season is one grand illusion. enjoy and go crazy.
on the positive side of this "lead", IMO is exactly the type of deal we are probably going to see. it's only in the interesting category for sure.
Zimmers' Helmet
11-28-05, 10:38 PM
This would be a foolish trade for the Yankees to even think about making.
Lieberthal? If people think that Posada is in decline, wait until you get a load of this guy. He's already had a half-dozen knee surgeries. He's broken. This is a definate downgrade for the Yankees.
Abreau is good, but he's not a centerfielder. We still don't get Michaels.
In return for not filling any holes on this roster, the Yankees are to give up a Duncan, along with Pavano and Posada? This makes no sense.
AMYanks
11-28-05, 10:38 PM
if anything, at least this is food for thought. let's face it, anything in this site is just as fluid or as solid as you want it to be. we all want to be the fly on Ca$hman's wall. guessing is only part of the fun of the off season. anyone taking anyone else or themselves too seriously is likely to have a stash of wooden nickels. the off season is one grand illusion. enjoy and go crazy.
on the positive side of this "lead", IMO is exactly the type of deal we are probably going to see. it's only in the interesting category for sure.
I don't care if they publish it, it could be true. I just think we would have heard SOMETHING about this already.
AMYanks
11-28-05, 10:40 PM
This would be a foolish trade for the Yankees to even think about making.
Lieberthal? If people think that Posada is in decline, wait until you get a load of this guy. He's already had a half-dozen knee surgeries. He's broken. This is a definate downgrade for the Yankees.
Abreau is good, but he's not a centerfielder. We still don't get Michaels.
In return for not filling any holes on this roster, the Yankees are to give up a Duncan, along with Pavano and Posada? This makes no sense.
Posada is due about $25.5M over the next 2 years. Lieberthal is due $7.5M in '06, and that's it. That makes up for the difference in the two players.
If this deal were made, it also tells me the Yankees would be in the market for, possibly Ramon Hernandez.
Bernie Inferno
11-28-05, 10:41 PM
Pavano + Posada = $54 million
Abreu + Lieb = $51.5 or $37.5 (Abreu $2mil buyout in 08)
Duncan really is the X-Factor here. I don't think Duncan is worth the extra savings.
Kulish29
11-28-05, 10:42 PM
If they included Michaels, I'd think long and hard about doing it.
Dont be fooled by the gold glove, Abreu would make a really bad CF. He doesnt seem to read balls that well and gets distracted at times. I love his bat though, he takes a lot of pitches, works counts and he's not a liability on the basepaths. Not sure if I'd pull the trigger on this, I guess it depends on who takes on who's salaries but Posada+Pavano+Duncan is a pretty high price to pay, even though Posada and Pavano have negative trade values as it is.....
nyyanksfan20
11-28-05, 10:43 PM
I don't believe it so much and I hope they wouldn't do this.
destiNY
11-28-05, 10:44 PM
http://www.gothambaseball.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1607
Take it for what it is worth.
If they throw in Jason Michaels and take Womack, they've got a deal. :P
This can't be true, lets analyze this for a minute.
This trade includes one of our top prospects and two very good players going to the phillies and acquiring two players that do not fulfill our immediate needs CF, and Bullpen. Next rumor please, this is not happening.
destiNY
11-28-05, 10:45 PM
This can't be true, lets analyze this for a minute.
This trade includes one of our top prospects and two very good players going to the phillies and acquiring two players that do not fulfill our immediate needs CF, and Bullpen. Next rumor please, this is not happening.
Also I'm assuming Abreu cannot play CF, thats correct right?? Even if he could it still would be a one-sided trade...
Zimmers' Helmet
11-28-05, 10:47 PM
Posada is due about $25.5M over the next 2 years. Lieberthal is due $7.5M in '06, and that's it. That makes up for the difference in the two players.
If this deal were made, it also tells me the Yankees would be in the market for, possibly Ramon Hernandez.
But by not filling any major holes on this roster (relief pitching, CF), while trading a starting pitcher without receiving one in return; this trade would hurt the Yankees more than help them.
StatenIslandYankee
11-28-05, 10:48 PM
I love Duncan, but I'd do this in a heartbeat.
ICEBERG18
11-28-05, 10:49 PM
http://www.gothambaseball.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1607
Take it for what it is worth.
If they throw in Jason Michaels and take Womack, they've got a deal. :P
I don't get it? :dunno:
Also I'm assuming Abreu cannot play CF, thats correct right?? Even if he could it still would be a one-sided trade...
The author wrote that this trade would have morphed out of a Michaels deal so it is still possible that he could be thrown in.
Also, with Sheff probably headed for a lot of DH duty anyway, getting an elite RF isn't a bad thing.
My concern is that since the Phils have Ryan Howard, do they really think that Duncan can be a ML 3rd baseman?
DiMaggio5CF
11-28-05, 10:57 PM
Some random DiMaggio5CF thoughts on this . . .
First let's analyze what this deal would mean for the 2006 season.
This trade wouldn't solve the CF picture, but it would add a power lefty bat to the lineup and shore up the RF defense by allowing Sheffield to move to the DH role full-time -- hopefully keeping him more healthy and more productive for the entire season.
I don't know if the Yankees plan on putting Abreu in CF, but as that would still leave an open DH spot, I don't think that's the best scenario. I'd rather have Crosby's glove in CF than Phillips' bat at DH, and so I think Abreu would best be used in RF, pushing Sheff to the DH role.
I don't like Lieberthal, but if the Yankees sign either Bengie Molina or Ramon Hernandez, the downgrade behind the plate is small enough to justify adding Abreu. Perhaps the Yankees could then trade Lieberthal for a prospect who could replace Duncan in our farm system.
The big loss here is Carl Pavano, and his value depends entirely on who you talk to. But even if you think that Pavano is ready to have a bounce-back year, the Yankees have six starters even without him, and trading him wouldn't leave a big void.
The Yankees' two biggest concerns are the bullpen and the centerfield picture, and this trade does little to address either one of those concerns. It does, however, improve the team -- if we can agree that losing Pavano isn't a big deal because we do have replacements already under contract -- which is really the bottom line, as long as it doesn't hinder resolving more pressing needs.
Additionally, although we don't want to think about it, it might be time to at least acknowledge the possibility . . .
If the Yankees made this trade, it would put them in a good rebuild next season if they so choose.
After 2006, the following contracts would expire, some with the buyout of an option: Mike Mussina, Gary Sheffield, Tony Womack, Mike Lieberthal, and Jaret Wright (assuming void clause applies)
Furthermore, Randy Johnson and Mariano Rivera would only have one year left on their respective contracts. And one year from now, the Yankees would likely find little trouble in trading Bobby Abreu.
At this point, the Yankees could sign a free agent pitcher like Barry Zito or Kerry Wood and build the rotation around the new acquisition, Chien-Ming Wang, and Barry Zito. The offense would be built around Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, with Jason Giambi still present.
At this point next season, Carl Pavano would be the only starting pitcher on the wrong side of 30 with more than one year remaining on his contract. Making this trade would enable the Yankees to more or less clean house next year at this point.
With the struggles of 2005 and their sudden reluctance to trade the prospects, maybe they see the handwriting on the wall.
EDIT: Matsui would also be in LF, but -- although I don't know the exact numbers -- the revenue that he generates from the Japanese market likely makes him a solid investment regardless of what he does on the field.
destiNY
11-28-05, 11:00 PM
The author wrote that this trade would have morphed out of a Michaels deal so it is still possible that he could be thrown in.
Also, with Sheff probably headed for a lot of DH duty anyway, getting an elite RF isn't a bad thing.
My concern is that since the Phils have Ryan Howard, do they really think that Duncan can be a ML 3rd baseman?
It seems that the Winter League are making baseball scouts believe that Duncan is ready right now, which is kind of crazy since he has not played for the Clippers yet. A jump from AA to the Majors, I don't think so...This trade would HAVE to incorporate Micheals, theres no doubt in my mind. It would be hard to swallow the trade even if we do get him just because I like Duncan so much and I really believe Pavano can play in this beautiful city...
Michaels07
11-28-05, 11:02 PM
This proposal is just a figment of one mans imagination , as he tries to play Brian Cashman.
I Love Wang
11-28-05, 11:02 PM
Abreu declined badly in the second half. We get out of a lot of money, though. I'd have to think about this one.
I find it highly unlikely that we would get both Abreu and Michaels, who would play besides Rowand and Burrell?
I Love Wang
11-28-05, 11:03 PM
A jump from AA to the Majors
Is very common for highly rated prospects.
ICEBERG18
11-28-05, 11:05 PM
Cashman said last week that Pavano will not be traded unless he's blown away. I wouldn't exactly call this trade being blown away...
Seems like the Yanks are being awfully quiet, which is the way Cash likes it. It feels like something big is up, but who knows what that will be.
NelsonMuntz
11-28-05, 11:07 PM
My biggest issue with this proposal is that it does nothing to fill the CF hole. There's no way in hell Abreu can play CF. Despite the gold glove, he's not even a great corner outfielder. He is a heck of a hitter though. If they throw in Michaels it could work I suppose.
DiMaggio5CF
11-28-05, 11:07 PM
Seems like the Yanks are being awfully quiet, which is the way Cash likes it. It feels like something big is up, but who knows what that will be.
This reminds me of the A-Rod trade.
It started small (Lamb and Michaels), with a rumored trade involving the feature player going to another team (Red Sox and Orioles), and then by the time we found out about it, it was pretty much a done deal.
WebsterMulligan
11-28-05, 11:12 PM
This trade does nothing to improve the Yankee's most pressing needs, which is aquiring CF and bullpen help.
destiNY
11-28-05, 11:16 PM
Is very common for highly rated prospects.
Duncan isn't one of those, his numbers were definately not out of this world in AA
This trade does nothing to improve the Yankee's most pressing needs, which is aquiring CF and bullpen help.
Think of it as the equivalent of signing Giles. His mighty stick allows us to play Bubba in CF without missing a beat offensively and we shed JoPo's bad contract. I still have faith in Pavano and Duncan though.....
wileedog
11-28-05, 11:17 PM
This trade does nothing to improve the Yankee's most pressing needs, which is aquiring CF and bullpen help.
However it helps some ancillary needs - get rid of a couple of question mark big contracts, get younger and better defensively in RF while moving Sheff to DH and adding another nice bat to the offense (which could possibly help offset the issue of getting stuck with Bubba in CF).
The only thing that would make me hesitate is Duncan. And I'd drop that hesitation if they throw in Michaels.
Espinosa's Glasses
11-28-05, 11:22 PM
If this were the case... which I highly doubt...
We would probably make a move at one of the free agent catchers... and make Lieberthal our backup and not resign Flaherty
WebsterMulligan
11-28-05, 11:24 PM
However it helps some ancillary needs - get rid of a couple of question mark big contracts, get younger and better defensively in RF while moving Sheff to DH and adding another nice bat to the offense (which could possibly help offset the issue of getting stuck with Bubba in CF).
The only thing that would make me hesitate is Duncan. And I'd drop that hesitation if they throw in Michaels.
True, Abreu is a great player who can make an impact, but Lieberthal is a downgrade over Posada, IMO.
The real question is whether or not Pavano can rebound and make a contribution to the rotation. I would hate for the Yanks to give up on him too soon. I think the Yanks owe it to themselves to give Pavano another season, to see if he pans out.
destiNY
11-28-05, 11:27 PM
True, Abreu is a great player who can make an impact, but Lieberthal is a downgrade over Posada, IMO.
The real question is whether or not Pavano can rebound and make a contribution to the rotation. I would hate for the Yanks to give up on him too soon. I think the Yanks owe it to themselves to give Pavano another season, to see if he pans out.
I agree. It would kill me to move Pavano after one season, hes worth the risk. Besides, his contract is not too bad, 4 @40mill for a projected #1,2 starter. Give the man a shot!
Just a thought but if the Yanks made this deal without Michels...could they then trade Abreu to the Indians for Crisp. They may want power from a corner outfield position. The Yanks will likely have to throw in a pitching prospect (DeSalvo for instance) but Crisp is a very good CF and the tribe is not trading Sizemore. Getting a switch-hitting Crisp fits the Yanks needs even better than Hunter would. He's younger, switch hits, and translates better as a top of the order hitter.
wileedog
11-28-05, 11:31 PM
True, Abreu is a great player who can make an impact, but Lieberthal is a downgrade over Posada, IMO.
Financially, he's a huge upgrade. Especially since he's off the books after next season.
THis move would have to signal a stab at Molina or Hernendez though I would think.
The real question is whether or not Pavano can rebound and make a contribution to the rotation. I would hate for the Yanks to give up on him too soon. I think the Yanks owe it to themselves to give Pavano another season, to see if he pans out.
Admittedly I was never thrilled with the Pavano signing. Nothing he did last season (or didn't do, as the case may be) changed my mind.
Given the choice of having Pavano or Abreau on my team I'd take Bobby every day and twice on Sunday, especially if as an added bonus I get out of paying $25M to my catcher whose starting to look cooked and is average at best defensively.
Again, DUncan is the wild card here. I'd have to think about that some more. BUt without Duncan, or with Michaels in the deal, its a no brainer IMO.
ChrisV82
11-28-05, 11:36 PM
I'd pass. Despite misconceptions, Posada is a better offensive and defensive catcher than Lieberthal (higher caught stealing, fewer errors, not to mention handled about 50 pitchers more than Lieberthal). Duncan is supposed to be one of our best prospects. And I think Pavano can have a great season for us this year. Abreu is a good player and we need an outfielder, but the price is too much.
Yankeeah
11-28-05, 11:37 PM
Ummm, why do they want Duncan? They have Ryan Howard. I know Duncan right now is a 3rd baseman, and the Phills current 3rd baseman bites ass, but isn't he projected as a 1st baseman. Trade bait I guess.
NYDCYankee
11-28-05, 11:40 PM
Just a thought but if the Yanks made this deal without Michels...could they then trade Abreu to the Indians for Crisp. They may want power from a corner outfield position. The Yanks will likely have to throw in a pitching prospect (DeSalvo for instance) but Crisp is a very good CF and the tribe is not trading Sizemore. Getting a switch-hitting Crisp fits the Yanks needs even better than Hunter would. He's younger, switch hits, and translates better as a top of the order hitter.
Why is everyone undervalueing Abreu here? If Cleveland is lusting for a power bat and they want Abreu I don't think we would need to toss in Desalvo to get Crisp back. In fact I think we should as for Crisp and one of their nice bullpen arms in return.
I Love Wang
11-28-05, 11:43 PM
Abreu is worth way more than Coco Crisp. If I'm trading Abreu to the Indians, its for Sizemore.
Yankeeah
11-28-05, 11:45 PM
Abreu is worth way more than Coco Crisp. If I'm trading Abreu to the Indians, its for Sizemore.
And a bullpen arm
Think of it as the equivalent of signing Giles. His mighty stick allows us to play Bubba in CF without missing a beat offensively and we shed JoPo's bad contract. I still have faith in Pavano and Duncan though.....
Giles is an above average corner outfielder who would be average to slightly above average in CF if you believe Michael Lichtman, keeping Bubba out of the starting lineup and on the bench where he belongs. Abreu is a below average corner outfielder who would have to play RF, forcing Bubba into the starting lineup unless Sheffield is traded. It isn't the same. Any scenario in which Bubba plays is a bad scenario. You can't 'make up' for his bat in other areas, because the issue is the the below replacement level bat coming up once every 2-3 innings, not what the rest of the lineup is doing.
However it helps some ancillary needs - get rid of a couple of question mark big contracts, get younger and better defensively in RF while moving Sheff to DH and adding another nice bat to the offense (which could possibly help offset the issue of getting stuck with Bubba in CF).
The only thing that would make me hesitate is Duncan. And I'd drop that hesitation if they throw in Michaels.
1. Trading one of the few marketable chips you have to address ancillary needs seems a waste.
2. Adding a DH bat by moving Sheffield there doesn't really address the fact that Bubba is well below replacement level.
3. Abreu is going to get 2/30 or 3/44 for ages 32+...that's not exactly saving money.
4. You also mentioned going out and signing Molina, who can't even handle a full catching load or move behind the plate or Hernandez, who I'm not confident will be the same given his injury.
Stupid Flanders
11-28-05, 11:54 PM
Giles is an above average corner outfielder who would be average to slightly above average in CF if you believe Michael Lichtman, keeping Bubba out of the starting lineup and on the bench where he belongs. Abreu is a below average corner outfielder who would have to play RF, forcing Bubba into the starting lineup unless Sheffield is traded. It isn't the same. Any scenario in which Bubba plays is a bad scenario. You can't 'make up' for his bat in other areas, because the issue is the the below replacement level bat coming up once every 2-3 innings, not what the rest of the lineup is doing.Simple. Matsui LF, Giles Cf, Abreu RF, Sheff DH
/end pipedream
38Special
11-28-05, 11:55 PM
Guys wanna start up a website and make up some rumors?
Stupid Flanders
11-28-05, 11:55 PM
And a bullpen arm
If they assume Abreu's contract, I don't think a Sizemore/Abreu deal to be a bad one.
BTW this is a crazy trade and has no chance of happening
Yankeeah
11-28-05, 11:58 PM
If they assume Abreu's contract, I don't think a Sizemore/Abreu deal to be a bad one.
BTW this is a crazy trade and has no chance of happening
Agreed, but a man can dream.
NYDCYankee
11-29-05, 12:02 AM
BTW this is a crazy trade and has no chance of happening
Is it that crazy of an idea though, because I think it kind of makes sense for both sides. I don't even think Duncan needs to be included to get it done.
Yankeeah
11-29-05, 12:02 AM
Is it that crazy of an idea though, because I think it kind of makes sense for both sides. I don't even think Duncan needs to be included to get it done.
I think he meant the Crisp part.
Soriambi
11-29-05, 12:04 AM
Abreu is worth way more than Coco Crisp.
I completely agree. Abreu is a very, very good hitter who is among the elite hitters in baseball, I'd say, and Crisp isn't even close to that level (at least yet.) I really don't see this deal happening, though. Not only do they have to agree to it, (if they're actually discussing it at all) but Abreu and Lieberthal both have NTCs, and who knows if they'd want to move here.
DiMaggio5CF
11-29-05, 12:04 AM
Guys wanna start up a website and make up some rumors?
Sure! Sounds fun!
How about . . .
A-Rod to Colorado
Helton, Pavano, Jennings, and cash to St. Louis
Pujols and King to the Yankees
?
Made necessary/possible by . . .
Giambi, Duncan, a PTBNL, and cash to the Athletics for Eric Chavez and Kiko Calero
?
Sure! Sounds fun!
How about . . .
A-Rod to Colorado
Helton, Pavano, Jennings, and cash to St. Louis
Pujols and King to the Yankees
?
Made necessary/possible by . . .
Giambi, Duncan, a PTBNL, and cash to the Athletics for Eric Chavez and Kiko Calero
?
The people who run GothamBaseball.com have a fair bit of credibility. I'm not saying that they have great inside sources, but they aren't just randomly making stuff up.
JeffWeaverFan
11-29-05, 12:12 AM
True, Abreu is a great player who can make an impact, but Lieberthal is a downgrade over Posada, IMO.
The real question is whether or not Pavano can rebound and make a contribution to the rotation. I would hate for the Yanks to give up on him too soon. I think the Yanks owe it to themselves to give Pavano another season, to see if he pans out.
I'm with you there. Lieberthal is definitely a downgrade over Posada. (Although how good is Lieberthal defensively?) But, with Posada, he is getting old and he is signed through 2007 (as that option will kick in), so the Yankees do most likely want to get out of that contract. Lieberthal will be a FA after this season so that is a plus.
The thing with Pavano is that we don't know if the rumors that he hates it here and wants out are true. Cashman most likely does know this and if they are true, he would definitely not tell a soul as he would lose all leverage in trying to get rid of him.
So, if the trade was just Pavano + Posada for Abreu + Lieberthal, you'd have to make it. I've always thought that Abreu is one of the more underated players in the league and he is a great offensive player. He'll hit about 25 HR's, get on base 40% of the time, and steal about 30 bases. He would make a very good #2 hitter.
But, as others have mentioned, this does not fill a need for us as Abreu is not CFer, although I do like the idea of Sheff becoming the full time DH.
My biggest problem with the trade would be giving up Duncan. I'm fully against giving up any prospects, and especially Duncan. In my mind, he'll be our cheap replacement of Jason Giambi in a couple years. We'd have to get Michaels back in this deal, but that would then leave a void in the Phillies outfield.
Either way, I don't see this trade happening.
apolansk
11-29-05, 12:14 AM
<table id="TTdata" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" height="42" width="857"><tbody><tr class="TTdata_ltblue"><td class="ctr">#</td><td class="ctr">NAME (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=NAME)
</td><td class="ctr">TEAM (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TEAM)</td><td class="ctr">LG (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=LG)</td><td class="ctr">YEAR (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=YEAR)</td><td class="ctr">POS (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=POS)</td><td class="ctr">PA (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA)</td><td class="ctr">PA% (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PA_PERCENT)</td><td class="ctr">AVG (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=AVG)</td><td class="ctr">OBP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=OBP)</td><td class="ctr">SLG (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SLG)</td><td class="ctr">SB (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SB)</td><td class="ctr">CS (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=CS)</td><td class="ctr">MLVr (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=MLVR)</td><td class="ctr">PMLVr (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PMLVR)</td><td class="ctr">VORPr (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=VORPR)</td><td class="ctr">MLV (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=MLV)</td><td class="ctr">PMLV (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=PMLV)</td><td class="ctr">
VORP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=VORP)http://www.baseballprospectus.com/images/down.gif
</td></tr></tbody></table><table id="TTdata" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="TTdata_ltgrey"><td>8.</td><td>Bobby Abreu (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Bobby+Abreu)</td><td>PHI (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=phi)</td><td>NL</td><td class="right">2005</td><td>RF</td><td class="right">719</td><td class="right">11.3%</td><td class="right">.286</td><td class="right">.405</td><td class="right">.474</td><td class="right">31</td><td class="right">9</td><td class="right">.216</td><td class="right">0.202</td><td class="right">0.344</td><td class="right">35.6</td><td class="right">33.4</td><td class="right">56.8
</td></tr></tbody></table><table id="TTdata" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="TTdata"><td>11.</td><td>Grady Sizemore (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Grady+Sizemore)</td><td>CLE (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=cle)</td><td>AL</td><td class="right">2005</td><td>CF</td><td class="right">706</td><td class="right">11.3%</td><td class="right">.289</td><td class="right">.346</td><td class="right">.484</td><td class="right">22</td><td class="right">10</td><td class="right">.150</td><td class="right">0.202</td><td class="right">0.322</td><td class="right">24.7</td><td class="right">33.2</td><td class="right">53.0</td></tr></tbody></table><table id="TTdata" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="TTdata_ltgrey"><td>22.</td><td>Coco Crisp (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Coco+Crisp)</td><td>CLE (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=cle)</td><td>AL</td><td class="right">2005</td><td>LF</td><td class="right">656</td><td class="right">10.5%</td><td class="right">.300</td><td class="right">.338</td><td class="right">.465</td><td class="right">15</td><td class="right">6</td><td class="right">.120</td><td class="right">0.130</td><td class="right">0.257</td><td class="right">18.4</td><td class="right">19.9</td><td class="right">39.3</td></tr></tbody></table> <table id="TTdata" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr class="TTdata"><td>5.</td><td>Brian Giles (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Brian+Giles)</td><td>SDN (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=sdn)</td><td>NL</td><td class="right">2005</td><td>RF</td><td class="right">674</td><td class="right">10.7%</td><td class="right">.301</td><td class="right">.423</td><td class="right">.483</td><td class="right">13</td><td class="right">5</td><td class="right">.302</td><td class="right">0.292</td><td class="right">0.416</td><td class="right">47.3</td><td class="right">45.8</td><td class="right">65.1</td></tr></tbody> </table>
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=7364
<table style="width: 340pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="454"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl26" style="border: 0.5pt solid windowtext; width: 86pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: silver;" height="17" width="115">Player</td> <td class="xl27" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 48pt; background-color: silver;" width="64">WARP</td> <td class="xl28" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 56pt; background-color: silver;" width="75">WARP Rnk</td> <td class="xl27" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 48pt; background-color: silver;" width="64">VORP</td> <td class="xl28" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 54pt; background-color: silver;" width="72">VORP Rnk</td> <td class="xl26" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; width: 48pt; background-color: silver;" width="64">FRAR</td></tr></tbody> </table> <table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="21" width="454"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl22" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">Jorge Posada</td> <td valign="top">
</td> <td class="xl23" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: transparent;" align="right">4.8</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: transparent;" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl23" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: transparent;" align="right">32.6</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: transparent;" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl22" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: transparent;" align="right">20</td></tr></tbody> </table> <table style="width: 340pt; border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="454"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"><td class="xl22" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; height: 12.75pt; background-color: transparent;" height="17">Mike Lieberthal</td> <td class="xl23" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: transparent;" align="right">3.2</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: transparent;" align="right">20</td> <td class="xl23" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: transparent;" align="right">21.1</td> <td class="xl24" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: transparent;" align="right">16</td> <td class="xl22" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background-color: transparent;" align="right">16</td></tr></tbody> </table>
http://www.rotoauthority.com/best_of_2005/
Sorry about the tables, had a problem getting them to lineup.
Soriambi
11-29-05, 12:17 AM
I'm with you there. Lieberthal is definitely a downgrade over Posada. (Although how good is Lieberthal defensively?) But, with Posada, he is getting old and he is signed through 2007 (as that option will kick in), so the Yankees do most likely want to get out of that contract. Lieberthal will be a FA after this season so that is a plus.
According to http://www.mlb4u.com/nyy.html , it seems that Posada has a 2008 Player's Option that kicks in if his 2007 Option kicks in, as well:
Jorge Posada: 5-Year worth 51M- + receives a 15M signing bonus paid over 5 years ( paid 1.5M '02, 2M '03, 3M '04, 4M '05, 4.5M '06)- + he will make 4M in 2002, in 2003- 5M, in 2004- 6M and in 2005- 8M and in 2006- 9M- + the deal includes a Team Option for 2007 worth 12M or a 4M buyout- + he Can void deal after 2004- + if he catches 330 games between 2004 and 2006, his 2007 option becomes guaranteed and a Player Option for 2008 is added Agents: Alan Nero and Luis Espinel Service Time: 8.085 8.085
DeputyFife
11-29-05, 12:23 AM
Everyone is forgetting that Milton Bradley is going to be our CFer.
Quangormo
11-29-05, 12:24 AM
Interesting, they don't have a need for Womack with Utley at 2nd however.
No, but if they give up Abreu they will need an OF, and if (as suggested) they also give up Michaels, they'll really need him.
Right now, they hae Burrell, Rowand, Abreu, and Michaels. Womack might be able to help them.
Quangormo
11-29-05, 12:27 AM
Another player to consider, should the Jeter-to-CF rumors have any truth to them, might be David Bell. Not the greatest 3B in baseball, but steady in an Aaron Boone sort of way.
DiMaggio5CF
11-29-05, 12:27 AM
Another player to consider, should the Jeter-to-CF rumors have any truth to them, might be David Bell. Not the greatest 3B in baseball, but steady in an Aaron Boone sort of way.
I'd rather pursue Furcal and leave A-Rod at third.
Yankeeah
11-29-05, 01:02 AM
Another player to consider, should the Jeter-to-CF rumors have any truth to them, might be David Bell. Not the greatest 3B in baseball, but steady in an Aaron Boone sort of way.
Bell wouldn't be the best 3b in high school baseball if he played.
Stupid Flanders
11-29-05, 01:15 AM
Everyone is forgetting that Milton Bradley is going to be our CFer.The best part of Bradley is that he could be acquired for basically nothing.
If the situation isn't resolved or close to complete (throught trade for a Wilkerson/Michaels/etc) the Yankees should consider calling his agent on Dec 8th.
StatenIslandYankee
11-29-05, 01:19 AM
Abreu is worth way more than Coco Crisp. If I'm trading Abreu to the Indians, its for Sizemore.
And a good prospect or bullpen arm
Stupid Flanders
11-29-05, 01:34 AM
And a good prospect or bullpen arm
now why in the world would Cleveland do that
DeputyFife
11-29-05, 02:00 AM
The best part of Bradley is that he could be acquired for basically nothing.
If the situation isn't resolved or close to complete (throught trade for a Wilkerson/Michaels/etc) the Yankees should consider calling his agent on Dec 8th.
Bingo! LF-Matsui CF-Bradley RF-Abreu/Giles and suddenly our outfield is looking pretty good, with Sheff the DH sharing time with Giambi and filling in the outfield. I like it.
Enter_Sandman_42
11-29-05, 02:42 AM
I love Duncan, but I'd do this in a heartbeat.
I'd do this trade in a heartbeat, we get rid of Posada and dont have to pay him 12 M next year or whatever it is AND worry about the player option on him the next year as well, we also get rid of Pavano who apparently wants out of New York anyway, and as much as I like Duncan, he's not a deal breaker if this trade rumor has any validity to it.
NYDCYankee
11-29-05, 05:04 AM
http://www.nj.com/sports/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/113324718996070.xml&coll=1
Confirms the Yankees have to talked to Philly about Abreu. So maybe there is some truth to this roooomer.
RhodeyYankee2638
11-29-05, 05:45 AM
Posada is a 10/5 guy at the begining of next year, I believe. So we would be stuck with him until the 2007 season is over. Although Lieberthal is making $7 mil, I hardly doubt he would be our starter. Hopefully we are looking at Molina and Hernandez more carefully
StatenIslandYankee
11-29-05, 06:00 AM
http://www.nj.com/sports/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/113324718996070.xml&coll=1
Confirms the Yankees have to talked to Philly about Abreu. So maybe there is some truth to this roooomer.
WHOA, guess there is some smoke to this.
MisterNovember
11-29-05, 07:03 AM
I'm very lukewarm about this trade. Not only am I not enamored with Bob Abreu, but I HATE the idea of dumping Pavano. At a certain point, young FA pitchers aren't going to sign with the Yanks anymore if we continue to ship them out of town after one underwhelming season.
I actually prefer the other rumor cited in the NJ.com article, which would be Wang for Rowand. That solves an immediate need, and Wang is fairly injury prone as it is. His value will most likely never be higher than it is right now.
DontHateOnNumber2
11-29-05, 07:17 AM
Duncan really is the X-Factor here.
Yes he is. Put an "X" on his name if it's on some kind of trade negotiation contract or something. For a deal like this though, with Lieberthal's numbers, the Phillies would have to take a whole lot of Pavano's salary.
DontHateOnNumber2
11-29-05, 07:19 AM
That solves an immediate need, and Wang is fairly injury prone as it is. His value will most likely never be higher than it is right now.
While it's true that Wang's value is up, he was barely in the majors. He's injury-prone based on the span of a couple of months. He'll strengthen his shoulder, heal up whatever need be and then during the '06 season we can observe what's up with him if anything at all.
ReggieBar
11-29-05, 07:23 AM
Aweful trade proposal. Abreu is a talented, but streaky player. He also doesn't have the best makeup to play here. Leiberthal has been on the bad side of Philly fans for years. He is NOT good and breaking down. I'm not trading Posada just b/c he has a bad contract that the Yankees can obviously absorb.
goin for 27
11-29-05, 07:32 AM
I don't see this.
Lieberthal is not as good as Posada, and Abreu is streaky, and not a CF'er. Yanks do not really improve. Plus, Duncan gone for these two guys?
More importantly, why would they Phillies take on 2 bloated contracts? Posada's contract is way out of whack now. Yanks would take Lieberthal to free up a ton of money, why would the Phillies do the opposite?
I can see the Yanks inquiring about Abreu, he is a solid player. I just don't see this type of deal.
Shaun4013
11-29-05, 07:36 AM
Please no.
I'd pass. Despite misconceptions, Posada is a better offensive and defensive catcher than Lieberthal (higher caught stealing, fewer errors, not to mention handled about 50 pitchers more than Lieberthal). Duncan is supposed to be one of our best prospects. And I think Pavano can have a great season for us this year. Abreu is a good player and we need an outfielder, but the price is too much.
he's not a better catcher at throwing runners out. look, EVERYBODY runs on posada. of course he's going to have more runners thrown out.
lieberthal's the better man behind the plate, period. however, he can't catch a lot of innings. there'd have to be a valid backup to log 200 ABs...
It seems that the Winter League are making baseball scouts believe that Duncan is ready right now, which is kind of crazy since he has not played for the Clippers yet. A jump from AA to the Majors, I don't think so...This trade would HAVE to incorporate Micheals, theres no doubt in my mind. It would be hard to swallow the trade even if we do get him just because I like Duncan so much and I really believe Pavano can play in this beautiful city...
I read one scouting report that said that Duncan still has the same holes in his swing,but feasted on poor pitching in the AFL
MisterNovember
11-29-05, 08:20 AM
While it's true that Wang's value is up, he was barely in the majors. He's injury-prone based on the span of a couple of months. He'll strengthen his shoulder, heal up whatever need be and then during the '06 season we can observe what's up with him if anything at all.
Thats not entirely true...Wang tore his shoulder up once before while in the minors, and if you'll remember when he initially got hurt last season there were concerns that he might never pitch again. While I like Wang a lot, there's no doubt that he's fragile...I'd trade him while his value is up.
surge511
11-29-05, 08:30 AM
I would not do this trade as is, I don't think. I like Posada and Duncan, and I believe Pavano will bounce back. I agree with getting rid of salary, but Lieberthal cannot be a starting catcher. We would have to go sign Hernandez/Molina.
Also, I would caution giving up one of the 5 starters greatly. IF - big if - the starting 5 can remain healthy and perform to their expectations, it is an excellent rotation. However, there are legitimate question marks with all 5 of them. Adding Wright and Small to that mix just adds bigger questions than Pavano. We are possibly very thin on pitching as it is - this would just make us thinner.
If we went out and signed Washburn or Millwood, it would relieve some of the pressure of getting rid of Pavano. Also, adding Abreu would be just like signing Giles. Getting Michaels in the deal, and maybe giving up Melky plus someone besides Duncan would give my OK on the deal. However, as it stands now, I don't think I would make that deal.
Dr. Gonzo
11-29-05, 08:31 AM
I don't like the deal at all. I feel like duncan would amount to over paying.
Ghost of Dan Pasqua
11-29-05, 08:44 AM
My first instinct is "what a load of BS", and then you start to peel some of this apart, and also look at some other historical factors of the players involved:
1) Posada has been rumored on the block for a couple of years now. He was originally one of the names in the first go round of the Randy Johnson to the Yankee rumors in the summer of 2004. And again last off-season there have been rumblings that the Yankees would like to deal him. As I have long said, when offensive catchers start to creep into their 30s and show signs of slowing down with the bat, it's a slippery slope that they don't climb back from. Varitek is going to turn out to be a bad signing for Boston for this very reason, and he started to slow up badly at the end of last year. This is the Yankees last shot to trade Posada before that option kicks in (because it will). The question then is, why would Philly want him knowing this? That part I can't figure out.
2) I don't for one minute believe that the Yankees will refuse to deal Pavano. The rumblings again last year were that he didn't work hard to come back, he was stubborn/lazy in his workouts during the season (so much so that Mel kind of gave up on him and said it was a guessing game with him, which got Mel killed here, but might have been more of a slam at Pavano). When you get labeled a problem with your workouts as a pitcher, the Yankees usually don't have patience for you, see Irabu, Mendoza and even El Duque. I think Pavano is very available, at the right price.
3) Abreu is an offensive machine, even last year's fade notwithstanding. Abreu is exactly what the Yankees would like to see offensively, a power hitting lefty who has a very good OBP numbers, and can swipe 30+ bases and will take a walk. He carries a hefty price tag, and the Phillies are right now overloaded with outfielders, but I still wonder why they would trade him. Regardless, if they do, you put Abreu in left and move Matsui to center. Following the 2006 season, Abreu moves to right field to replace Sheffield and the Yankees bring in their full time solution at center, be it a trade for an Andreuw Jones or even this Jeter hubbub. One thing to consider about Abreu, he was an Ed Wade signing, and now Gillick is there, GMs sometimes frown on big deals inherited from prior regimes. It's what is going to drive Manny leaving Boston soon as well. Otherwise, I'm not sure why Philly would do it.
4) Lieberthal is a shell of his former self. It's trading a fading Posada for a faded Lieberthal. But the Yankees do need someone behind the plate if Posada goes and right now there are no viable options, unless they jump in the Molina/Hernandez derby. But $7 million is alot to pay a backup catcher, so if Lieberthal comes, he's the man for 2006.
5) Duncan is another young, chip that would seem to befit what Gillick is doing there. He robbed the White Sox, mugged them actually in the Thome deal. And again, while Thome is a different situation because of Ryan Howard, it's another example of a big contract given by a previous regieme (Wade) that the new regieme would like to purge. It can only help your organization to load up on young talent, that is on the cusp (1-2 years away) from getting to the majors. So while it would seem that Duncan might be blocked in Philly, they could try to move him to the outfield, or he becomes another stocked trade chip.
If this deal goes through as stated, it would be VERY BAD for the Yankees. We'd be giving up a potential #3 pitcher after one injury plagued year, an OK catcher and a top prospect for Abreu, who hit all his home runs in the Derby and Lieberthal(???????????????)
If the argument is to get rid of JoPo's contract and then go after Hernandez/Molina, well, then we've got a 7.5million backup catcher. Not to mention that Abreu isn't great defensively (we've already got one of those in RF - Sheff).
Bad, bad trade. Do Not give up Duncan for this.
Soriambi
11-29-05, 08:52 AM
Abreu is a talented, but streaky player. He also doesn't have the best makeup to play here.
and Abreu is streaky.
I'm wondering what evidence you have that Abreu is streaky. I don't watch him every day, so I'm not an expert on him past his statistics, but looking at his splits:
-He has only had an OBP under .370 three times in a month in the last four years
-He's hit under .275 in seven months out of twenty-four.
-He's had an OPS of under .835 in six of those twenty-four months.
Compare this to Gary Sheffield who, despite having a very good eye, has had an OBP under .370 six times already in a month in his YANKEE tenure of two years. (Including in three months this year, so Sheff matched Abreu's total for his last four years in 2006.)
Derek Jeter, who has a slightly higher average in his career than Abreu, has hit under .275 six times in a month in the last four years.
Sheffield, a player with a slightly higher career SLG% than Abreu, has had an OPS under 835 five times during his Yankee tenure (last two years, one less than Abreu's four year total), and seven times in the last four years.
I just don't see any real evidence for a great amount of streakiness past the normal ups and downs of a player's year.
wileedog
11-29-05, 08:59 AM
If this deal goes through as stated, it would be VERY BAD for the Yankees. We'd be giving up a potential #3 pitcher after one injury plagued year
Actually Pavano has had an injury plagued career. He may be a #3 pitcher, or he may be on the DL for significant time again. In 8 major league seasons Pavano has pitched more than 150 innings only twice.
an OK catcher and a top prospect for Abreu, who hit all his home runs in the Derby
Who cares about HRs? He has a career .411 OBP. He's a career .512 SLGer, and .303 hitter. In the last 3 years he's stolen 93 bases. His numbers over the last 3 years with runners on base are phenomenal.
He's a very, very good offensive player and is 4 years younger than Giles.
and Lieberthal(???????????????)
Better defensive catcher than Po and will cost roughly $18M less.
Straight up would I rather have Po? Yes.
Would I rather have Leiberthal and $18M to throw at the bullpen? Yes.
If the argument is to get rid of JoPo's contract and then go after Hernandez/Molina, well, then we've got a 7.5million backup catcher.
For one year.
Not to mention that Abreu isn't great defensively (we've already got one of those in RF - Sheff).
Oh come on. Abreu may not be a gold glover but he is light years ahead of Sheff at this point.
Bad, bad trade. Do Not give up Duncan for this.
Duncan's the only sticky part, IMO.
dabomb2045
11-29-05, 09:02 AM
if the Phils would be willing to take on all of Pavano's contract....I'd do it
If the Phils included one more player I'd do it right now.
MTYankee23
11-29-05, 09:09 AM
Better defensive catcher than Po and will cost roughly $18M less.
Straight up would I rather have Po? Yes.
Would I rather have Leiberthal and $18M to throw at the bullpen? Yes.
Duncan's the only sticky part, IMO.
We'd have to sign another catcher, no way can we go into this season with Lieberthal as the starter. And at that point, if we're going to sign a catcher to start, we might as well do that anyhow, and make Posada the DH. Which would make this the last year of his deal. As far as backup catchers who are making big money go, I'd rather have Posada.
So at that point, we're giving up Pavano and Duncan for Abreu. Which in it of itself isn't bad. But doesn't really solve any of our problems, and further thins out our farm system.
I'm also not a huge fan of people wanting to throw money at the bullpen, we've tried this in the past, its failed miserably, let's try something else.
Actually Pavano has had an injury plagued career. He may be a #3 pitcher, or he may be on the DL for significant time again. In 8 major league seasons Pavano has pitched more than 150 innings only twice.
Who cares about HRs? He has a career .411 OBP. He's a career .512 SLGer, and .303 hitter. In the last 3 years he's stolen 93 bases. His numbers over the last 3 years with runners on base are phenomenal.
He's a very, very good offensive player and is 4 years younger than Giles.
Better defensive catcher than Po and will cost roughly $18M less.
Straight up would I rather have Po? Yes.
Would I rather have Leiberthal and $18M to throw at the bullpen? Yes.
For one year.
Oh come on. Abreu may not be a gold glover but he is light years ahead of Sheff at this point.
Duncan's the only sticky part, IMO.The part about the HRs, I was responding to those who said we'd get a power lefty. Yes, he has a high OBP, but do we really need him? Really? In the context of the whole deal, I think we'd get shafted if we made this.
It sounds tricky... The Phillies would get a good pitcher in Pavano, but has a big contract. They would get a good switch-hitting catcher (however in decline) in Posada, who will still probably produce more than Lieberthal next year, but at the cost of Posada's big contract. They would get Duncan which is difficult to put a price on, but is often asked for when teams propose trades to the Yanks.
The Yanks would get a very good, patient hitter in Abreu (the guy knows how to take a walk - and a lifetime .411OBP), he's reliable (played almost every game last 8 seasons), can steal a base and plays a decent RF. With Lieberthal, they would be getting a catcher further in his decline than a younger Posada (a year younger) and who has had about 6 more knee operations! The good news would be that it's only a one year contract at "only" $7M.
Unless the Phillies are trying to put something together (a two-year window?), I don't understand why they would handcuff themselves with Posada's contract. If they need a better catcher, there are some FA options. If they really feel the need to rid themselved of Lieberthal's contract, for financial flexibility, then why absorb a worse contract in return (in Posada) unless you think you'll get something more - intangibles like playoff experience (a catcher who has handled some championship pitching staffs).
It's confusing...
wileedog
11-29-05, 09:23 AM
We'd have to sign another catcher, no way can we go into this season with Lieberthal as the starter. And at that point, if we're going to sign a catcher to start, we might as well do that anyhow, and make Posada the DH.
Sheff should be the DH. I absolutely abhor the idea of making Posada the DH.
He's a good hitter for a catcher. For a DH he's quite mediocre.
Which would make this the last year of his deal. As far as backup catchers who are making big money go, I'd rather have Posada.
I'd rather upgrade our defense behind the plate.
Lieberthal is a better catcher than Posada. Molina/Hernendez are better then either of them.
So at that point, we're giving up Pavano and Duncan for Abreu. Which in it of itself isn't bad. But doesn't really solve any of our problems, and further thins out our farm system.
It solves the "Sheff can't play RF" problem. It adds another terrific bat into the lineup, a guy who walks, makes good contact, and his a reliable run producer. It puts more speed on the basepaths. It is a significant upgrade defensively in RF.
I'd trade Pavano for that in a heartbeat, so as said it comes down to Duncan. However I still don't really understand what Philly is going to do with Duncan anyway. Maybe they'd take Melky?
I'm also not a huge fan of people wanting to throw money at the bullpen, we've tried this in the past, its failed miserably, let's try something else.
OK, I'm fine with that too.
Still doesn't make saving $18M on a declining catcher a bad thing.
wileedog
11-29-05, 09:26 AM
The part about the HRs, I was responding to those who said we'd get a power lefty. Yes, he has a high OBP, but do we really need him? Really? In the context of the whole deal, I think we'd get shafted if we made this.
Yes, we really need a decent defensive RFer and we really, really need a good DH, neither of which we had last year. Putting Abreu in RF and making Sheff the primary DH solves both problems.
Giles is a better option than Abreu, but I don't think Giles is coming here.
Kulish29
11-29-05, 09:39 AM
if the Phils would be willing to take on all of Pavano's contract....I'd do it
I'd want them to include Michaels or Rowand in the deal.
At this point in their careers, Molina is NOT a better defensive catcher than Posada.
At this point in their careers, Molina is NOT a better defensive catcher than Posada.:eek:
:eek:
You're kidding right?
Shinebox
11-29-05, 09:49 AM
At this point in their careers, Molina is NOT a better defensive catcher than Posada.
i am not so sure about that... Baserunners still are not scared of Posada behind the plate, no matter how good of a playoffs he had. People dont run on molina nearly as much.
I dont know Units reason behind not wanting to pitch to Jorge, but I couldnt imagine any pitcher not wanting to throw to Molina. Thats gotta be a reflection on how the pitcher reviews the catchers defensive ability.
wileedog
11-29-05, 09:49 AM
You're kidding right?
I was going to ask you the same question.
You're kidding right?Am I kidding that I'm surprised? No. If true, I am surprised. I did not know that.
yankswn23
11-29-05, 09:56 AM
I only like it if we can then sign molina to play catcher instead and spin off Lieberthal
yanksphan
11-29-05, 09:57 AM
At this point in their careers, Molina is NOT a better defensive catcher than Posada.
Whaaa...? I respectfully disagree.
Ghost of Dan Pasqua
11-29-05, 09:57 AM
I only like it if we can then sign molina to play catcher instead and spin off Lieberthal
Unless you swallow almost all of that salary, Lieberthal has no value unless he's traded for a worse contract (like Posada's).
Am I kidding that I'm surprised? No. If true, I am surprised. I did not know that.
Molina has had leg problems (compounded by just plain being out of shape) that:
a) limit the number of games he can actually catch
b) limit his mobility behind the plate, leading to a very high number of passed balls and wild pitches because he can't shift and contributing to the huge decline in his CS%.
These things aren't going to get better, only worse. I wouldn't touch him.
i am not so sure about that... Baserunners still are not scared of Posada behind the plate, no matter how good of a playoffs he had. People dont run on molina nearly as much.
I dont know Units reason behind not wanting to pitch to Jorge, but I couldnt imagine any pitcher not wanting to throw to Molina. Thats gotta be a reflection on how the pitcher reviews the catchers defensive ability.
I was going to ask you the same question.
Bengie led the AL in passed balls in 873 Innings Caught.
Posada had 8 passed balls in 1076 innings.
They threw out runners at the same clip.
And Bengie's getting fatter by the day.
yanksphan
11-29-05, 10:03 AM
Bengie led the AL in passed balls in 873 Innings Caught.
Posada had 8 passed balls in 1076 innings.
They threw out runners at the same clip.
And Bengie's getting fatter by the day.
Probably no statistic to quantify it - but I'd be willing to bet Bengie makes his pitchers look better than JoPo does. I watched my fair share of Anaheim's games this year, and his framing of pitches is light years ahead of Jorge.
And Bengie's getting fatter by the day.
Then he would be a perfect addition to the Red Sox.
Probably no statistic to quantify it - but I'd be willing to bet Bengie makes his pitchers look better than JoPo does. I watched my fair share of Anaheim's games this year, and his framing of pitches is light years ahead of Jorge.
Like you said, there's no stats to show just how much impact his framing pitches has on the pitching staff. Plus he's an injury waiting to happen.
Then he would be a perfect addition to the Red Sox.
:roflmao: :roflmao:
Molina has had leg problems (compounded by just plain being out of shape) that:
a) limit the number of games he can actually catch
b) limit his mobility behind the plate, leading to a very high number of passed balls and wild pitches because he can't shift and contributing to the huge decline in his CS%.
These things aren't going to get better, only worse. I wouldn't touch him.Thanks :)
Thanks :)
See? And you thought I was high.
See? And you thought I was high.Thinking you're high has nothing to do with your perception of Molina. I have other reasons to think so.
Thinking you're high has nothing to do with your perception of Molina. I have other reasons to think so.
Stupidity?
yanksphan
11-29-05, 10:10 AM
Like you said, there's no stats to show just how much impact his framing pitches has on the pitching staff. Plus he's an injury waiting to happen.
Well, not quite. Just b/c no statistic exists to quantify it, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
Kind of like "clutch" and "peskiness" ;)
Well, not quite. Just b/c no statistic exists to quantify it, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
Kind of like "clutch" and "peskiness" ;)
So you'd rather have Molina behind the plate right now?
Stupidity?It's your bad spelling, actually.
It's your bad spelling, actually.
What did I spell wrong that confused you?
wileedog
11-29-05, 10:34 AM
Bengie led the AL in passed balls in 873 Innings Caught.
Posada had 8 passed balls in 1076 innings.
Bengie had 10 total. Lets not make it sound like it was an epidemic.
They threw out runners at the same clip.
Yet Posada threw gave up twice as many Stolen Bases. 90 guys swiped bases on him successfully vs. 44 for Molina.
Who do you think runners were more scared to go on?
And Bengie's getting fatter by the day.
Weight clauses can be written into contracts.
Furthermore Molina is 3 years younger and has caught a lot less innings the past few years. Posada has caught almost 1100 innings or more each of the past 5 years and will be 35 this season. There is no reason to think he won't break down more this season, and even worse next season.
Lastly, when you find me a stat for calling games, framing pitches and blocking the plate let me know. Posada is average at best at all these skills, while Molina is generally regarded as good to exceptional at them.
wileedog
11-29-05, 10:44 AM
So you'd rather have Molina behind the plate right now?
Somebody in the Yankee organization would:
Hip Hip Jorge (http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/ny-spflash274530172nov27,0,3969128.column?coll=ny-sports-columnists)
The Yankees tried hard to trade Jorge Posada but there were no takers for a contract that likely will pay him $20 million though 2007. "Somebody in their organization doesn't like Posada," one NL exec surmised.
The plan apparently was to excise Posada, then take a shot at Molina, who killed them in the Division Series.
MTYankee23
11-29-05, 10:47 AM
Another signing because someone had a good series against us? How many of those have worked out well?
Pavano? Wright? Womack? Am I leaving any out?
wileedog
11-29-05, 10:48 AM
Another signing because someone had a good series against us? How many of those have worked out well?
Pavano? Wright? Womack? Am I leaving any out?
Giambi :)
And when did Wright or Womack have a good series against us?
What did I spell wrong that confused you?Nothing in particular. It's just an epidemic really.
MTYankee23
11-29-05, 10:51 AM
Giambi :)
And when did Wright or Womack have a good series against us?
Giambi would have been the reverse, wasn't he terrible against us in the playoffs and we won those series.
Wright beat us '97.
Womack had that big hit in '01.
wileedog
11-29-05, 10:57 AM
Giambi would have been the reverse, wasn't he terrible against us in the playoffs and we won those series.
No he played well. I think he was shutout in the final game, but otherwise had a good series.
Wright beat us '97.
I think saying we signed Wright in 2005 because he beat us in '97 is a bit of a stretch, don't you?
Womack had that big hit in '01.
We didn't sign Womack because he got one hit, we signed him because someone fell in love his play on the Cardinals, still couldn't figure out we have a prefectly good lead-off main with Jeter and got very, very stupid.
MTYankee23
11-29-05, 11:00 AM
No he played well. I think he was shutout in the final game, but otherwise had a good series.
I think saying we signed Wright in 2005 because he beat us in '97 is a bit of a stretch, don't you?
We didn't sign Womack because he got one hit, we signed him because someone fell in love his play on the Cardinals, still couldn't figure out we have a prefectly good lead-off main with Jeter and got very, very stupid.
If, as some on this board would swear by, that the Tampa faction was in charge of making these moves, then I wouldn't doubt for a second that '97 and '01 were in the minds of these guys when they brought Wright and Womack in. Otherwise you can't justify bringing in either.
wileedog
11-29-05, 11:09 AM
If, as some on this board would swear by, that the Tampa faction was in charge of making these moves, then I wouldn't doubt for a second that '97 and '01 were in the minds of these guys when they brought Wright and Womack in. Otherwise you can't justify bringing in either.
Wright was brought in because the pitching market was an abomination last offseason and he had his best year in 2004. If Wright had never pitched against us in '97 he still would have been signed - remember, guys like Elmslie and Conners had very little input into the team anyway back then, why would they care what Wright did in '97?
Womack was brought in because Cairo's agent was being a moron, and Torre and others in the organization were still caught up in the idea that you need to have really, really fast guys batting leadoff.
Did past performance contribute to their signing? Maybe a little, but certainly not in the knee-jerk way you are portraying it.
BTW, looked it up. Giambi had a big 2001 ALDS (1.137 OPS) against us before we signed him.
MTYankee23
11-29-05, 11:19 AM
Wright was brought in because the pitching market was an abomination last offseason and he had his best year in 2004. If Wright had never pitched against us in '97 he still would have been signed - remember, guys like Elmslie and Conners had very little input into the team anyway back then, why would they care what Wright did in '97?
Womack was brought in because Cairo's agent was being a moron, and Torre and others in the organization were still caught up in the idea that you need to have really, really fast guys batting leadoff.
Did past performance contribute to their signing? Maybe a little, but certainly not in the knee-jerk way you are portraying it.
BTW, looked it up. Giambi had a big 2001 ALDS (1.137 OPS) against us before we signed him.
Yah, I forget why people thought the knock on him was that he couldn't play in the postseason, I Stand corrected. That said, that deal hasn't worked out all that well for us to this point either.
I think you're severely underestimating the power that Connors/Elmslie wielded last offseason and their constant desire to stay in Steinbrenner's good graces. I can absolutely see Steinbrenner saying what about that Wright kid who beat us in the '97 playoffs, he had a big year this year, and the Bills saying, oh yah, definitely, let's bring him in.
I also find it hard to believe that Cashman felt that Womack was a better value than Cairo. He may indicate otherwise, but that was just a dumb move. Why would Torre want a really, really fast guy batting leadoff when he refused to bat Lofton leadoff the year earlier.
Yah, I forget why people thought the knock on him was that he couldn't play in the postseason, I Stand corrected. That said, that deal hasn't worked out all that well for us to this point either.
I think you're severely underestimating the power that Connors/Elmslie wielded last offseason and their constant desire to stay in Steinbrenner's good graces. I can absolutely see Steinbrenner saying what about that Wright kid who beat us in the '97 playoffs, he had a big year this year, and the Bills saying, oh yah, definitely, let's bring him in.
I also find it hard to believe that Cashman felt that Womack was a better value than Cairo. He may indicate otherwise, but that was just a dumb move. Why would Torre want a really, really fast guy batting leadoff when he refused to bat Lofton leadoff the year earlier.
I honestly believe, based on various sundry reports that have been circulating the past couple of months, that the Tampa guys wanted Womack, or Oppenheimer did. Either way, that signing would not have happened under the Stick/Cashman regime.
yanksphan
11-29-05, 11:31 AM
So you'd rather have Molina behind the plate right now?
Absolutely.
nyyterp
11-29-05, 11:35 AM
can anyone dumb it down for me and explain how this works for the phillies? pavano is more than a risk to take on. jorge is a guaranteed declining veteran. duncan is a prospect. they are not getting rid of that much, but they sure are willing to pay a lot.
JavyVazquezIsSick
11-29-05, 11:51 AM
If we can get Michaels too, I'd do it...
Yanks Lifer
11-29-05, 12:01 PM
Cashman was just on The View sharing holiday recipes and told Star Jones this rumor is also untrue!
By the way, George is on The Ellen DeGeneres Show tomorrow so maybe we'll finally find out what, if any, moves will be made this off season.
wileedog
11-29-05, 12:02 PM
I also find it hard to believe that Cashman felt that Womack was a better value than Cairo.
Cairo's agent was asking for $2M for a glorified utility man. I wouldn't have given him that either.
Also, as you yourself mentioned, Conners/Elmslie were weilding a lot of power last offseason, and they consistently favor "name" players over guys like Cairo.
Womack had the name recognition that Cairo does not.
He may indicate otherwise, but that was just a dumb move. Why would Torre want a really, really fast guy batting leadoff when he refused to bat Lofton leadoff the year earlier.
Torre wanted to play Bernie. Plain and simple. When Lofton opened his mouth about it, Torre stuck him in the doghouse permanent-like.
Who did Torre start the season as the Yankee lead-off hitter last year, despite Womack's horrific career OBP?
Stupid Flanders
11-29-05, 12:13 PM
I'm also not a huge fan of people wanting to throw money at the bullpen, we've tried this in the past, its failed miserably, let's try something else.When exactly are you talking about? Most of the relievers I can remember were traded for except Gordon (who excelled) and Karsay (who was good until he got hurt).
Well, not quite. Just b/c no statistic exists to quantify it, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
Kind of like "clutch" and "peskiness" ;)
But this is something that could be quantifiable. For example, if Molina does a better job of framing pitches than other pitchers, it would make sense that the Angels would increase their K-rate when Molina is catching. They don't. Last year, it was 6.55/9 for Molina and 7.51/9 for the rest of the Angels catchers (5.40 for Mathis, 7.10 for Paul, and 7.62 for Jose Molina).
Bengie had 10 total. Lets not make it sound like it was an epidemic.
In substantially fewer innigns. The wild pitch rate when Molina caught was also very high...he just doesn't move well behind the plate at all.
Yet Posada threw gave up twice as many Stolen Bases. 90 guys swiped bases on him successfully vs. 44 for Molina.
Who do you think runners were more scared to go on?
Again, in fewer innings. Reputations change. So do scouting reports. Molina doesn't throw well anymore. Everyone knows this.
Weight clauses can be written into contracts.
To not go over a certain weight? Sure. Molina needs to lose weight, though. Why would he bother to sign a deal that requires that? In addition, that doesn't address the leg issues he already has.
Furthermore Molina is 3 years younger and has caught a lot less innings the past few years. Posada has caught almost 1100 innings or more each of the past 5 years and will be 35 this season. There is no reason to think he won't break down more this season, and even worse next season.
Molina has caught fewer innings because he keeps getting hurt/can't handle the load. He's not going to magically turn into a guy who can.
Lastly, when you find me a stat for calling games, framing pitches and blocking the plate let me know. Posada is average at best at all these skills, while Molina is generally regarded as good to exceptional at them.
See my previous post. The real world doesn't seem to match up with perception.
TheTinoMobile
11-29-05, 02:07 PM
I don't like Abreau, something about his face that just irks me.
The rumor I posted last night has since been updated:
http://www.gothambaseball.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1607
The Yankees have been abnormally quiet these past few weeks, but that doesn't mean they haven't been hard at work.
Last week's reported interest in Philadelphia's Jason Michaels may have sown the seeds of a blockbuster type of deal that would send Carl Pavano, Eric Duncan and Jorge Posada to the Phillies in exchange for Bobby Abreu and Mike Lieberthal.
The Phillies feel Pavano can be inserted right into their rotation, Eric Duncan is their third baseman of the future, and Posada can be an upgrade over Lieberthal.
The Yankees, who have begun to shop Gary Sheffield quite actively in hopes of dealing him during the winter meetings, want to add the suddenly very available Abreu to both their lineup and in RF.
We'll keep you posted
MTYankee23
11-29-05, 02:11 PM
When exactly are you talking about? Most of the relievers I can remember were traded for except Gordon (who excelled) and Karsay (who was good until he got hurt).
Trading for high priced relievers is almost as bad. Benitez, Stanton/Nelson PartII, Gabe White, Heredia, Witasick, Wohlers, Osuna, F-Rod.
Hahahhaa. Remember when we started the season a few years ago with Osuna as our closer?
MTYankee23
11-29-05, 02:13 PM
Not only do I not want Molina over Posada, I don't want him over Ramon Hernandez, Jason LaRue or Brian Schneider.
I also don't want Lieberthal as our starting catcher. Ever.
Stupid Flanders
11-29-05, 02:23 PM
Trading for high priced relievers is almost as bad. Benitez, Stanton/Nelson PartII, Gabe White, Heredia, Witasick, Wohlers, Osuna, F-Rod.A lot of those guys weren't high prices (Heredia was claimed off waivers anyway) and most of the trades (Witasik, Wohlers are good examples) were incredibly cheap.
IMO those were not "throwing money at a bullpen". In fact on the 1996 championship team I believe the only FA was in fact Mike Stanton.
goin for 27
11-29-05, 02:23 PM
The Yankees, who have begun to shop Gary Sheffield quite actively in hopes of dealing him during the winter meetings, want to add the suddenly very available Abreu to both their lineup and in RF.
I am all for adding Abreu, but I assumed to move Sheff to DH. (Playing Giambi the bulk of games at 1B)
Sheffield is a better hitter than Abreu. Much lower K rate AND more power. Certainly with Sheffs decline in the field, Abreu would be the better fielder, but I don't know if it makes up for the bat. Sheffield is much more consistent at the plate. (And still has hot streaks like Abreu).
Also, though Posada can be maddening, he is better than Lieberthal. I understand the $$ savings, which is why I can't figure out why Philly would do it.
Frees up a lot of cash long term, but short term, the team is weaker. Especially if they trade Sheffield. Also, by pulling the trigger on this without moving Sheffield, then what? I hope that they have a deal for Sheff in the wings, because if not, they will be in a tough position with the rest of MLB knowing that they have to move him. I guess they could do Matsui in CF, Abreu in LF, and Sheff, but I much prefer a bona-fide CF'er.
Very intriguing to see what will happen.
AMYanks
11-29-05, 02:33 PM
I wish the Phillies would do something like, throw Michaels in, and then take Wright's contract off our hands. That way, it's a slam dunk trade.
AMYanks
11-29-05, 02:35 PM
I am all for adding Abreu, but I assumed to move Sheff to DH. (Playing Giambi the bulk of games at 1B)
Sheffield is a better hitter than Abreu. Much lower K rate AND more power. Certainly with Sheffs decline in the field, Abreu would be the better fielder, but I don't know if it makes up for the bat. Sheffield is much more consistent at the plate. (And still has hot streaks like Abreu).
Also, though Posada can be maddening, he is better than Lieberthal. I understand the $$ savings, which is why I can't figure out why Philly would do it.
Frees up a lot of cash long term, but short term, the team is weaker. Especially if they trade Sheffield. Also, by pulling the trigger on this without moving Sheffield, then what? I hope that they have a deal for Sheff in the wings, because if not, they will be in a tough position with the rest of MLB knowing that they have to move him. I guess they could do Matsui in CF, Abreu in LF, and Sheff, but I much prefer a bona-fide CF'er.
Very intriguing to see what will happen.
Sheffield is not that much better than Abreu, at the plate. He's better, but not by much.
Yankeeah
11-29-05, 02:37 PM
I'm not in love with trading Sheff, and if it's for Abreu, then no way unless Rowands coming. Sheff adds a certain attitude to our team that I love. A-Rod calls him his big brother.
In fact on the 1996 championship team I believe the only FA was in fact Mike Stanton
Stanton was a Red Sox/Ranger in 96.
wileedog
11-29-05, 02:41 PM
But this is something that could be quantifiable. For example, if Molina does a better job of framing pitches than other pitchers, it would make sense that the Angels would increase their K-rate when Molina is catching. They don't. Last year, it was 6.55/9 for Molina and 7.51/9 for the rest of the Angels catchers (5.40 for Mathis, 7.10 for Paul, and 7.62 for Jose Molina).
Yet his CERA was 3.55 vs a team ERA of 3.68. So he was doing something right.
I'm not in love with trading Sheff, and if it's for Abreu, then no way unless Rowands coming. Sheff adds a certain attitude to our team that I love. A-Rod calls him his big brother.
What if its Shef for Abreu and Michaels?
Yankeeah
11-29-05, 02:47 PM
What if its Shef for Abreu and Michaels?
I dunno, I'm tempted. I like that we keep Duncan, but I havent heard the bets things about Michaels defense from my Philly Phan Phriends (I go to school in PA, 3 miles from the Jersey border.)
I dunno, I'm tempted. I like that we keep Duncan, but I havent heard the bets things about Michaels defense from my Philly Phan Phriends (I go to school in PA, 3 miles from the Jersey border.)
I might do it. Plus if we can get Giles, our overall defense and offense would be better.
Yankeeah
11-29-05, 02:53 PM
I might do it. Plus if we can get Giles, our overall defense and offense would be better.
I have little confidence in us landing Giles, though my opinion holds no water. I would be ok with having Thompson/Crosby in Center in we can land Abreu and keep Sheff.
MTYankee23
11-29-05, 02:56 PM
A lot of those guys weren't high prices (Heredia was claimed off waivers anyway) and most of the trades (Witasik, Wohlers are good examples) were incredibly cheap.
IMO those were not "throwing money at a bullpen". In fact on the 1996 championship team I believe the only FA was in fact Mike Stanton.
I'm not getting the point, in the years they won, they didn't sign many FA's? Recently they have.
Wohlers wasn't cheap. And both cost prospects, although at this point they didn't pan out.
The problem is that the prospects they gave away in trades of that nature could have been used better elsewhere.
Stupid Flanders
11-29-05, 03:00 PM
I'm not in love with trading Sheff, and if it's for Abreu, then no way unless Rowands coming. Sheff adds a certain attitude to our team that I love. A-Rod calls him his big brother.
Stanton was a Red Sox/Ranger in 96.Yeah, I meant to type '98.
What's CERA and how is it calculated?
Yet his CERA was 3.55 vs a team ERA of 3.68. So he was doing something right.
That's a pretty small difference over the course of a season, actually.
What's CERA and how is it calculated?
The ERA of pitchers when the catcher is behind the plate. It has flaws, but is marginally useful when comparing catchers on the same team at a high level.
AMYanks
11-29-05, 03:12 PM
I dunno, I'm tempted. I like that we keep Duncan, but I havent heard the bets things about Michaels defense from my Philly Phan Phriends (I go to school in PA, 3 miles from the Jersey border.)
If Gillick called me up and offered Abreu and Michaels for Sheffield, I'd take it and run.
The ERA of pitchers when the catcher is behind the plate. It has flaws, but is marginally useful when comparing catchers on the same team at a high level.Thank you :)
If Gillick called me up and offered Abreu and Michaels for Sheffield, I'd take it and run.
Yeah but I mean.... Gillick finished middle school, I think he'd have to have dropped out around 4th grade to make that offer.
AMYanks
11-29-05, 03:23 PM
Yeah but I mean.... Gillick finished middle school, I think he'd have to have dropped out around 4th grade to make that offer.
I agree... but for some reason, everyone in Philly hates the holy bejesus out of Abreu. They'd probably prefer Womack in right field.
Ok... maybe it's not THAT bad.
YankeeStripes
11-29-05, 03:25 PM
Here would be my trade with philly:
Pavano, Duncan for Rowand, leiberthall.
Use leiberthall as a catcher, put Po at first. Dh Giambi
Here would be my trade with philly:
Pavano, Duncan for Rowand, leiberthall.
Use leiberthall as a catcher, put Po at first. Dh Giambi:lol: That's funny!
wileedog
11-29-05, 03:27 PM
Also, by pulling the trigger on this without moving Sheffield, then what? I hope that they have a deal for Sheff in the wings, because if not, they will be in a tough position with the rest of MLB knowing that they have to move him. I guess they could do Matsui in CF, Abreu in LF, and Sheff, but I much prefer a bona-fide CF'er.
If we landed a bona fide bat like Abreu's I would have a lot less problems marching out Bubba in CF, Mats in LF and Abreu in RF. Sheff should probably be moved to full time DH now anyway.
He might even be more productive without the wear and tear of playing the field every day, and his numbers were stellar in 93 ABs as a DH this year and his 63 ABs as a DH the year before.
wileedog
11-29-05, 03:38 PM
Again, in fewer innings. Reputations change. So do scouting reports. Molina doesn't throw well anymore. Everyone knows this.
Apparently the rest of the league hasn't gotten the memo, as they ran twice as much on Po.
To not go over a certain weight? Sure. Molina needs to lose weight, though. Why would he bother to sign a deal that requires that? In addition, that doesn't address the leg issues he already has.
And Posada is still 3 years older and is going to make a heck of a lot more than Molina for declining numbers and play behind the plate.
Molina has caught fewer innings because he keeps getting hurt/can't handle the load. He's not going to magically turn into a guy who can.
Not to mention the Angels have competent backup catchers so Scioscia actually has the option of resting him.
See my previous post. The real world doesn't seem to match up with perception.
I haven't seen anything except a nebulous strikout rate and your opinion to back that up.
Now I'm not out and out disregarding your opinion, but right now I know Posada is an average receiver at best and I know what I've seen and read about Molina.
So why don't we skip this argument and just sign Ramon Hernandez? :)
Apparently the rest of the league hasn't gotten the memo, as they ran twice as much on Po.
It's entirely reasonable that teams would back off this year to see if Molina had recovered from the injuries that lead to his 2004 issues. That isn't going to happen forever. You can't make moves that basically assume that the rest of the league is so dumb that they can't do basic scouting.
And Posada is still 3 years older and is going to make a heck of a lot more than Molina for declining numbers and play behind the plate.
I'd argue that Molina's decline has already begun. If you don't want to pay Posada, you don't compound that with what I see as an even bigger mistake.
Not to mention the Angels have competent backup catchers so Scioscia actually has the option of resting him.['quote]
The DL trips help as well. Look, Molina has topped 1000 innings caught twice in his career. Eventually, you have to assume it's because he can't.
[quote]I haven't seen anything except a nebulous strikout rate and your opinion to back that up.
What's so nebulous about it? If Molina had some magical ability to frame pitches, there would be some tangible results. Without tangible results, he either doesn't possess the ability or he does possess it and it means jack squat. My opinion has nothing to do with it.
Now I'm not out and out disregarding your opinion, but right now I know Posada is an average receiver at best and I know what I've seen and read about Molina.
Molina WAS a good catcher. That doesn't mean he still is. In fact, I saw more than one lead in to the playoffs that pointed out just how much Molina has slipped.
So why don't we skip this argument and just sign Ramon Hernandez? :)
Becuase he's coming off of elbow surgery and I'm not terribly up on being the team that pays him for multiple years to see if he's fully recovered.
AMYanks
11-29-05, 04:32 PM
Here would be my trade with philly:
Pavano, Duncan for Rowand, leiberthall.
Use leiberthall as a catcher, put Po at first. Dh Giambi
*Giggle*
yanksphan
11-29-05, 04:32 PM
Becuase he's coming off of elbow surgery and I'm not terribly up on being the team that pays him for multiple years to see if he's fully recovered.
Wrist surgery actually. He's fine.
Wrist surgery actually. He's fine.
Sorry, wrist.
There's a significant difference between being healthy enough to play and being the same player. No one knows the latter until Hernandez gets a season under his belt.
DeputyFife
11-29-05, 04:45 PM
Please Do Not Trade Sheff.
yanksphan
11-29-05, 04:53 PM
Sorry, wrist.
There's a significant difference between being healthy enough to play and being the same player. No one knows the latter until Hernandez gets a season under his belt.
Hernandez' Sept stats (returned to action Sept 7, basically one month)
21G 78AB 5HR 20RBI .359/.398/.615 - 1.013OPS
I'd say the wrist was fine. :)
YankeePride1967
11-29-05, 04:55 PM
But by not filling any major holes on this roster (relief pitching, CF), while trading a starting pitcher without receiving one in return; this trade would hurt the Yankees more than help them.
Are you assuming that if we make this trade that we are done for the winter?
Hernandez' Sept stats (returned to action Sept 7, basically one month)
21G 78AB 5HR 20RBI .359/.398/.615 - 1.013OPS
I'd say the wrist was fine. :)
I'd say wait until there's a real sample size and the normal wear and tear that goes with that. Seriously, flipping one ? at C for another just seems like moving the deck chairs. I'd rather address real issues unless a clear upgrade presents itself.
wileedog
11-29-05, 05:15 PM
I'd say wait until there's a real sample size and the normal wear and tear that goes with that. Seriously, flipping one ? at C for another just seems like moving the deck chairs. I'd rather address real issues unless a clear upgrade presents itself.
As a stand alone issue maybe.
But I really like the idea of upgrading RF with Abreu, who will fit in very, very well in this lineup. And I think Sheff will be very good and much healthier at DH.
I then get a lot less worried about who winds up in CF. Because lets face it, the options are pretty darn awful, and don't figure to magically get any better.
If that means flipping some deck chairs at catcher, so be it. I don't see a compelling reason to keep Posada just for the sake of keeping him, and quite frankly he goes 10/5 after this offseason so this is our last chance to move his contract anyway.
All of this is probably irrelevant, as I doubt this is even true however.
As a stand alone issue maybe.
But I really like the idea of upgrading RF with Abreu, who will fit in very, very well in this lineup. And I think Sheff will be very good and much healthier at DH.
I then get a lot less worried about who winds up in CF. Because lets face it, the options are pretty darn awful, and don't figure to magically get any better.
If that means flipping some deck chairs at catcher, so be it. I don't see a compelling reason to keep Posada just for the sake of keeping him, and quite frankly he goes 10/5 after this offseason so this is our last chance to move his contract anyway.
All of this is probably irrelevant, as I doubt this is even true however.
The problem is, if the Yankees take the organizational leap where they are willing to trade Duncan and the like, they'd just be better off revisiting the CF market with this in mind and address the real issue that they have.
Yankeeah
11-29-05, 05:23 PM
As a stand alone issue maybe.
But I really like the idea of upgrading RF with Abreu, who will fit in very, very well in this lineup. And I think Sheff will be very good and much healthier at DH.
I then get a lot less worried about who winds up in CF. Because lets face it, the options are pretty darn awful, and don't figure to magically get any better.
If that means flipping some deck chairs at catcher, so be it. I don't see a compelling reason to keep Posada just for the sake of keeping him, and quite frankly he goes 10/5 after this offseason so this is our last chance to move his contract anyway.
All of this is probably irrelevant, as I doubt this is even true however.
Agreed on all counts. If we had Giambi at 1st, Matsui in LF, Abreu in RF and Sheff at DH, I would be cool with having Crosby/Thompson in CF.
Yankeeah
11-29-05, 05:24 PM
The problem is, if the Yankees take the organizational leap where they are willing to trade Duncan and the like, they'd just be better off revisiting the CF market with this in mind and address the real issue that they have.
If we have to give up Duncan, I think they should be sending Michaels along with the rest.
Agreed on all counts. If we had Giambi at 1st, Matsui in LF, Abreu in RF and Sheff at DH, I would be cool with having Crosby/Thompson in CF.
I wouldn't. A below replacement level bat in CF just doesn't work unless the defense is just off the charts. In addition, DHs are a lot easier to find than CFs. You are better off spending your chips on the more difficult position to fill.
AMYanks
11-29-05, 05:31 PM
Abreu, Lieberthal, Michaels for Pavano, Posada, Duncan, Wright. Yanks and Phillies not responsible for the salary of any player they give up; responsible for the salary of all players they acquire.
That's my final offer if I'm Cashman. If I'm giving up Duncan, I want Michaels in return, AND for the Phillies to assume a lot of our bad salary. If Gillick says no (which he probably would, given the salary), I'd move on. Unless Gillick offers us some crazy, one-sided deal in our favor.
Yankeeah
11-29-05, 05:32 PM
I wouldn't. A below replacement level bat in CF just doesn't work unless the defense is just off the charts. In addition, DHs are a lot easier to find than CFs. You are better off spending your chips on the more difficult position to fill.
It wouldn't be my first choice, but with a thin market, I don't see us getting a solid defensive CFer without breaking the bank.
It wouldn't be my first choice, but with a thin market, I don't see us getting a solid defensive CFer without breaking the bank.
But in this Abreu trade scenario, the bank is already broken. If that's going to happen, break it to address the real issue.
Yankeeah
11-29-05, 05:38 PM
But in this Abreu trade scenario, the bank is already broken. If that's going to happen, break it to address the real issue.
I don't consider this breaking the bank, if we do this, we could still make other trades. The Dodgers are looking at Todd Walker for Milton Bradley. We could offer Womack and a low-mid prospect for Bradley and possibly have a shot at him.
I don't consider this breaking the bank, if we do this, we could still make other trades. The Dodgers are looking at Todd Walker for Milton Bradley. We could offer Womack and a low-mid prospect for Bradley and possibly have a shot at him.
Then just trade for Bradley. Losing Duncan to upgrade at DH is a waste. DH is a fillable position.
As soon as you open the door to trading your tradeable chips, the vault is open. If you do that and don't directly address your biggest needs, it's a mistake. I'd have no problem with Bradley, but we all know the downside. If I make up my mind to trade Duncan and a guy like Pavano who teams are calling about, I'm no longer in the same CF market I was before. I can find one without the downside now.
Yankeeah
11-29-05, 06:02 PM
Then just trade for Bradley. Losing Duncan to upgrade at DH is a waste. DH is a fillable position.
As soon as you open the door to trading your tradeable chips, the vault is open. If you do that and don't directly address your biggest needs, it's a mistake. I'd have no problem with Bradley, but we all know the downside. If I make up my mind to trade Duncan and a guy like Pavano who teams are calling about, I'm no longer in the same CF market I was before. I can find one without the downside now.
We can get Bradley for less than Duncan I feel, and if not, then move on.
We can get Bradley for less than Duncan I feel, and if not, then move on.
I understand that. But, just a few posts ago, you spoke of trading for Bradley and also doing the rumored Philly trade. If that's the case, the Yankees are basically trading Duncan to upgrade at DH. That's a waste.
yankees76
11-29-05, 06:55 PM
The Dodgers will trade Bradley for Skippy the ballboy, but I still wouldn't make that trade.
BigBats
11-29-05, 07:00 PM
Jason Michaels could make or break it...
NYDCYankee
11-29-05, 07:26 PM
The Dodgers will trade Bradley for Skippy the ballboy, but I still wouldn't make that trade.
Man that would be a great trade if that was possible.
RhodeyYankee2638
11-29-05, 07:38 PM
Jeter, A-Rod, Abreu, Sheffield,Matsui, Giambi
That would be one sick sick lineup. I'd first try to get rid of Wright before Pavano. Although Pavano was injured and is kind of an ass, he doesn't seem like a nut headcase on the mound like Wright
JavyVazquezIsSick
11-29-05, 07:42 PM
Man that would be a great trade if that was possible.
I'd rather give up Duncan and Cano, Skippy is the man...
RhodeyYankee2638
11-29-05, 07:44 PM
I'd rather give up Duncan and Cano, Skippy is the man...
He is probably our 2nd best defensive infielder
wileedog
11-29-05, 08:53 PM
I wouldn't. A below replacement level bat in CF just doesn't work unless the defense is just off the charts. In addition, DHs are a lot easier to find than CFs. You are better off spending your chips on the more difficult position to fill.
Your missing the point.
There aren't any CFers anywhere near the caliber level player of Abreu even remotely on the market. They are a scant commodity to say the least.
Friggin Tori Hunter was going for the price of Cano and Wang, a price much, much steeper than a AA prospect.
As easy as it is to say, Duncan can't be flipped for a good CFer. There simply aren't any out there for sale.
Even if you packaged Pavano, Posada, Duncan and their big contracts together, what CFer are teams even remotely dreaming of parting with?
Ichiro maybe? Pierre? Michaels, whose never even played a full season? Anyone I'm missing?
Also, you are missing the fact that CF is not the only place we need help. Sheff's defense in RF is almost as bad as Bernie's was in CF. And the physical toll is probably hurting his offensive production. We need a new RFer too, which makes Sheff the best DH we could possibly dream of having outside of that guy in Boston.
I would prefer an OF/DH combo of Mats/Bradly(Bubba)/Abreau/Sheff then Mats/Wilkerson/Sheff/some random guy DH you haven't mentioned. Barring paying a fortune on the random DH guy, its is a significantly better alignment both offensively and defensively.
If that means a lateral move at catcher and the loss of Pavano who I'm not sold on anyway, as I said so be it.
Jeter, A-Rod, Abreu, Sheffield,Matsui, Giambi
That would be one sick sick lineup. I'd first try to get rid of Wright before Pavano. Although Pavano was injured and is kind of an ass, he doesn't seem like a nut headcase on the mound like Wright
What makes you say Wright is a nut headcase?
Really really bad karma- yes- w/ all the balls hitting him, but nut case
He always seemed like a gamer to me
Then just trade for Bradley. Losing Duncan to upgrade at DH is a waste. DH is a fillable position.
As soon as you open the door to trading your tradeable chips, the vault is open. If you do that and don't directly address your biggest needs, it's a mistake. I'd have no problem with Bradley, but we all know the downside. If I make up my mind to trade Duncan and a guy like Pavano who teams are calling about, I'm no longer in the same CF market I was before. I can find one without the downside now.
I'd as soon have Bradley.
I really resent Torre having a say in the matter. He's not the GM. His job is to deal w/ the line up that is assembled for him. His forte is supposed to be maintaining the right "atmosphere". IF a player is gonna help the team, let him earn hi 6M and deal w/ a difficult player
Wright being a nutcase is pushing it. Tavarez is more of the nutcase, but I still wouldn't mind him in the bullpen; if he can control his temper and avoid the occasional outburst.
I'd as soon have Bradley.
I really resent Torre having a say in the matter. He's not the GM. His job is to deal w/ the line up that is assembled for him. His forte is supposed to be maintaining the right "atmosphere". IF a player is gonna help the team, let him earn hi 6M and deal w/ a difficult player
You "resent" Torre having input? Who should have input? How about you? On what basis do you have standing to "resent" how the Y's structure their decisions? As fans we have no basis for resenting how a business make its decisions? Torre's job includes whatever the ownership says it is. Not what you say it is.
You "resent" Torre having input? Who should have input? How about you? On what basis do you have standing to "resent" how the Y's structure their decisions? As fans we have no basis for resenting how a business make its decisions? Torre's job includes whatever the ownership says it is. Not what you say it is.
YEAH! Put him in his place!
Zimmers' Helmet
11-29-05, 10:40 PM
Are you assuming that if we make this trade that we are done for the winter?
No, but by dealing away valuable chips in this deal, it makes it that much harder to make further deals.
The Yankees can't afford to trade a starting pitcher or a valuable prospect without addressing one of their two major needs. It's basically the only trading chips they have.
yanksphan
11-29-05, 10:43 PM
Your missing the point.
There aren't any CFers anywhere near the caliber level player of Abreu even remotely on the market. They are a scant commodity to say the least.
Friggin Tori Hunter was going for the price of Cano and Wang, a price much, much steeper than a AA prospect.
As easy as it is to say, Duncan can't be flipped for a good CFer. There simply aren't any out there for sale.
Even if you packaged Pavano, Posada, Duncan and their big contracts together, what CFer are teams even remotely dreaming of parting with?
Ichiro maybe? Pierre? Michaels, whose never even played a full season? Anyone I'm missing?
Also, you are missing the fact that CF is not the only place we need help. Sheff's defense in RF is almost as bad as Bernie's was in CF. And the physical toll is probably hurting his offensive production. We need a new RFer too, which makes Sheff the best DH we could possibly dream of having outside of that guy in Boston.
I would prefer an OF/DH combo of Mats/Bradly(Bubba)/Abreau/Sheff then Mats/Wilkerson/Sheff/some random guy DH you haven't mentioned. Barring paying a fortune on the random DH guy, its is a significantly better alignment both offensively and defensively.
If that means a lateral move at catcher and the loss of Pavano who I'm not sold on anyway, as I said so be it.
Amen brother. :clap:
Your missing the point.
There aren't any CFers anywhere near the caliber level player of Abreu even remotely on the market. They are a scant commodity to say the least.
Friggin Tori Hunter was going for the price of Cano and Wang, a price much, much steeper than a AA prospect.
As easy as it is to say, Duncan can't be flipped for a good CFer. There simply aren't any out there for sale.
Even if you packaged Pavano, Posada, Duncan and their big contracts together, what CFer are teams even remotely dreaming of parting with?
Ichiro maybe? Pierre? Michaels, whose never even played a full season? Anyone I'm missing?
Also, you are missing the fact that CF is not the only place we need help. Sheff's defense in RF is almost as bad as Bernie's was in CF. And the physical toll is probably hurting his offensive production. We need a new RFer too, which makes Sheff the best DH we could possibly dream of having outside of that guy in Boston.
I would prefer an OF/DH combo of Mats/Bradly(Bubba)/Abreau/Sheff then Mats/Wilkerson/Sheff/some random guy DH you haven't mentioned. Barring paying a fortune on the random DH guy, its is a significantly better alignment both offensively and defensively.
If that means a lateral move at catcher and the loss of Pavano who I'm not sold on anyway, as I said so be it.
1. If you open the door to trading Duncan, Pavano, and Posada and are willing to take on salary/cover salary as they are in this rumor, the number of available centerfielders suddenly expands quite a bit and begins to include teams whose CF currently isn't 'on the market'. I really have no doubt that this is the case. Even some of the lesser names you hear about such as Wilkerson or Bradley can now become part of a bigger deal to address other issues if you open this door.
2. Sheff is probably around 15 runs below average in RF, not anywhere even close to Bernie's true talent level the past few years.
3. Abreu is going to make $15M a year for the next 2-3 years. I'm fairly certain I could find a DH for less. I'm fairly certain I could find a RF for less who can actually play RF, which be the preferable way to get Shef out of there, for less. Despite the gold glove foolishness, there doesn't appear to be any more of a reason to play Abreu in the field than Sheffield. He should be a DH too. Yes, he can hit, but he really doesn't resolve any issues. He's more of the same.
4. Hunter hasn't been traded despite being shopped actively, so one can assume that what the Twins are asking for isn't really his true value. I really have no desire to trade for him, but you can't claim he's worth Cano and Wang, because if he were, the Twins would have already dealt him for something like that.
5. If there isn't a move that addresses your issues, don't trade for the sake of trading. Fold and wait for a hand that you can actually play.
wileedog
11-30-05, 08:23 AM
1. If you open the door to trading Duncan, Pavano, and Posada and are willing to take on salary/cover salary as they are in this rumor, the number of available centerfielders suddenly expands quite a bit and begins to include teams whose CF currently isn't 'on the market'. I really have no doubt that this is the case. Even some of the lesser names you hear about such as Wilkerson or Bradley can now become part of a bigger deal to address other issues if you open this door.
That all sounds fine and dandy.
But wait too long and suddenly you wind up with Bubba and Sheff in the OF again, and Ruben Sierra.. er Bernie Williams...er same thing back at DH.
I just don't see a strong argument for any GM to trade their starting CFer in this market unless they have a capable backup ready to go. And you can bet any GM who is in that situation has already signalled they are willing to deal, because it is a huge sellers market for CFers.
2. Sheff is probably around 15 runs below average in RF, not anywhere even close to Bernie's true talent level the past few years.
That's more an indictment of Bernie than an exoneration of Sheff.
And he's not going to get better at it this year either.
We need a RFer.
3. Abreu is going to make $15M a year for the next 2-3 years. I'm fairly certain I could find a DH for less. I'm fairly certain I could find a RF for less who can actually play RF, which be the preferable way to get Shef out of there, for less.
Again, name names. THis ambiguous "I can find a guy" argument doesn't help.
BTW, the numbers being thrown around for Paul Konerko are 5 years, $65M. He's about the only hitter I see on par with Abreu (other than Giles obviously, who would make this entire discussion moot). I'd far rather pay Abreu $30M for 2 years, especially since I'm losing Posada's contract in the bargain. (Plus the last thing we need is another well-paid 1Bmen/DH.)
The only other available RFer out there who will be noticeably better defensively is Jacque Jones, but his bat doesn't provide nearly the same mitigation for a subpar bat in CF, which defeats the purpose.
Despite the gold glove foolishness, there doesn't appear to be any more of a reason to play Abreu in the field than Sheffield. He should be a DH too. Yes, he can hit, but he really doesn't resolve any issues. He's more of the same.
He's 7 years younger, has far better range, and at this point has a better arm.
Whether he's actually a GGer is not the point, he's a big upgrade to Sheff, who declined noticeably from 2004 to 2005, and may do so even more in 2006
4. Hunter hasn't been traded despite being shopped actively, so one can assume that what the Twins are asking for isn't really his true value. I really have no desire to trade for him, but you can't claim he's worth Cano and Wang, because if he were, the Twins would have already dealt him for something like that.
By that logic, Carlos Beltran was worth $120M because he got it.
Or maybe the Twins decided if they don't get a price tag like that, its not worth trading him.
See "lack of CFers in the league" points above.
5. If there isn't a move that addresses your issues, don't trade for the sake of trading. Fold and wait for a hand that you can actually play.
THe move does address my issues.
I upgrade RF defense. I add a premiere bat and speed to the lineup. I move Sheff into a spot to be even more productive offensively. I have enough firepower now to get the best defensive CFer I can find and not worry too much about offense, which brings the pricetag down and options up. Heck I might even be able to look for a potential solution on the farm now.
All it costs me is a bad catcher contract I wanted to lose anyway, a 4.5 ERA injury-prone pitcher with another big contract, and a AA prospect who hasn't yet hit in AA. And quite frankly, as I stated all along, I would still hammer negotiations to change Duncan with Melky and/or Henn, who I'd happily give up in this deal.
That all sounds fine and dandy.
But wait too long and suddenly you wind up with Bubba and Sheff in the OF again, and Ruben Sierra.. er Bernie Williams...er same thing back at DH.
I just don't see a strong argument for any GM to trade their starting CFer in this market unless they have a capable backup ready to go. And you can bet any GM who is in that situation has already signalled they are willing to deal, because it is a huge sellers market for CFers.
Right, and when originally contacted, they asked for the likes of Duncan and the Yankees said no. If that door is now open, it's time to go back.
Even with guys we know are on the market, it's the opportunity to expand a deal. Want Wilkerson? Expand the deal and go for Wilkerson, Schneider, etc. Hell, even Rowand isn't gaurenteed to stay in Philly.
And he's not going to get better at it this year either.
We need a RFer.
I agreed with you. Replacing a guy who costs you 15 runs with a guy who costs you 7 or 8 runs who also isn't getting better, however, isn't a solution.
Again, name names. THis ambiguous "I can find a guy" argument doesn't help.
BTW, the numbers being thrown around for Paul Konerko are 5 years, $65M. He's about the only hitter I see on par with Abreu (other than Giles obviously, who would make this entire discussion moot). I'd far rather pay Abreu $30M for 2 years, especially since I'm losing Posada's contract in the bargain. (Plus the last thing we need is another well-paid 1Bmen/DH.)
Abreu is a DH. That's the problem. Anyway, my point was, if I had to spend all my chips in a trade and sign a DH, I'd do it for a CF and sign a Roberto Petagine type to DH. Obviously, that's not the ideal solution, as I'd rather find a RF, but the point is, it's not that hard to find a guy who can hit but can't field a lick if you have to.
The only other available RFer out there who will be noticeably better defensively is Jacque Jones, but his bat doesn't provide nearly the same mitigation for a subpar bat in CF, which defeats the purpose.
He also doesn't cost $15M a year, require taking on an additional $7.5M for a backup catcher, and require signing a questionable starting catcher in a market that is quickly becoming out of control. The Jones talk has him getting offers in the $6-7M range. Throw in an inexpensive RH platoon mate, and I'd be fine. BTW, Bradley can also play RF, and if you're fine with him in CF, I'd imagine you'd be fine with him in RF.
The point of the offseason is not to make moves that bludgeon your competition. It's to make yourself good enough to win. This doesn't mean that you have to spend every last cent possible. I think that if the Yankees make a smart move in RF and address CF, they address their biggest issues in the lineup in a substantially positive manner without merely picking up players that are going to cause the same scenario to play itself out again a year or 2 down the road.
He's 7 years younger, has far better range, and at this point has a better arm.
Whether he's actually a GGer is not the point, he's a big upgrade to Sheff, who declined noticeably from 2004 to 2005, and may do so even more in 2006
Again, he's not that big an upgrade defensively. That's the problem.
By that logic, Carlos Beltran was worth $120M because he got it.
Or maybe the Twins decided if they don't get a price tag like that, its not worth trading him.
See "lack of CFers in the league" points above.
Baseball players are like art. Put a Monet up for auction. When it's over, it's worth exactly what it went for, not what it should have gone for or not what a 'smarter' person would have paid for it, but exactly what was paid for it.
THe move does address my issues.
I upgrade RF defense. I add a premiere bat and speed to the lineup. I move Sheff into a spot to be even more productive offensively. I have enough firepower now to get the best defensive CFer I can find and not worry too much about offense, which brings the pricetag down and options up. Heck I might even be able to look for a potential solution on the farm now.
All it costs me is a bad catcher contract I wanted to lose anyway, a 4.5 ERA injury-prone pitcher with another big contract, and a AA prospect who hasn't yet hit in AA. And quite frankly, as I stated all along, I would still hammer negotiations to change Duncan with Melky and/or Henn, who I'd happily give up in this deal.
By your own admission, this isn't a move to address the issue...it's a move to cover it up.
You gain 7-8 runs in RF defensively, hardly a huge upgrade and commit big money to yet another corner outfielder who would be better off as a DH for $30M for 2 years or $44M for 3 years.
You then give $7.5M to your backup catcher for 1 year.
You then have to match/beat the 3/30M offers that are apparently on the table for Molina and Hernandez.
You do all of this to get rid of Posada's contract (I think Pavano's would be easy to move if you wanted to...teams are calling) and never address the real issue you have. In fact, you admit that you are doing this to compensate for the fact that you haven't addressed that issue. The goal is to have a balanced lineup, not to find ways to get around covering for a hole in lineup with players who put you in the same bad situation you are now trying to get out of.
Look, it's not like I want to pay the rest of Posada's deal. But, I also know that the Yankees are more able to deal with the money when it's wrapped up in one guy like that. Roster flexibility is a bigger issue in my book.
wileedog
11-30-05, 01:49 PM
I think that if the Yankees make a smart move in RF and address CF, they address their biggest issues in the lineup in a substantially positive manner without merely picking up players that are going to cause the same scenario to play itself out again a year or 2 down the road.
This is where I think we have a disconnect.
I don't think the CF issue is 'solvable'.
IMO we will start with Bubba Crosby in CF. Or with Milton Bradley, who will implode mid-season and we will finish up with Bubba anyway.
I haven't seen any hint that we are pushing for Wilkerson. The Twins seem to be sticking to their guns on Hunter. The Phillies seem more intent on pawning Abreu than moving Michaels. Giles will probably go to Canada, eh? Damon..... has issues. Pierre is Bubba with a bigger pricetag.
Everybody in the league knows we are desperate for a CF, and will adjust their pricetags accordingly.
Now obviously we don't know everything going on behind the scenes, and as you say if we start opening the door to Pavano or Duncan then perhaps some things start to get pried loose. And if those conversations are going on and look like they may go somewhere, then fine lets revisit this later.
However when I advocate this deal I do it with the idea that IMO Bubba (or someone similar) will probably be the starting CFer, and Abreu gives me the most bang for my buck as far as adding offense to compensate. In fact it may be enough offense that I don't have to trade for a CFer at all, and can just bring up some kids to look at in ST and hope one of them grabs the opportunity.
Besides, the Yanks signing Stinnett pretty much puts the official kibosh on this. I don't think the Yanks will go in with Lieberthal/Stinnett.
Mark Healey
11-30-05, 03:12 PM
The Yanks signing Stinnett pretty much puts the official kibosh on this
Not entirely true...it probably puts a kibosh on the Posada/Liebertahl part of the deal, but Abreu is a player the Yankees covet. Pavano is a pitcher the Phillies feel they can put in the top of their rotation.
Will it happern? Hard to say. Could it happen? Sure.
That's the problem with hot stove rumors as opposed to deadline rumors, you're talling with FO types instead of the scouts at the games who are specifically targeting players.
Not entirely true...it probably puts a kibosh on the Posada/Liebertahl part of the deal, but Abreu is a player the Yankees covet. Pavano is a pitcher the Phillies feel they can put in the top of their rotation.
Will it happern? Hard to say. Could it happen? Sure.
That's the problem with hot stove rumors as opposed to deadline rumors, you're talling with FO types instead of the scouts at the games who are specifically targeting players.
So you would say it is possible that the Phillies would do Abreu and random overpaid player for Pavano and Duncan?
Kulish29
11-30-05, 03:23 PM
Not entirely true...it probably puts a kibosh on the Posada/Liebertahl part of the deal, but Abreu is a player the Yankees covet. Pavano is a pitcher the Phillies feel they can put in the top of their rotation.
Will it happern? Hard to say. Could it happen? Sure.
That's the problem with hot stove rumors as opposed to deadline rumors, you're talling with FO types instead of the scouts at the games who are specifically targeting players.
The thing is, if the Yankees do this deal, it doesnt solve their CF problem. If the Phillies included Michaels or Rowand, I could see them trying to get this deal going ASAP (especially if Rowand were involved). But with the way the trade is now, it doesnt fill any of the Yankees immidiate needs, and that's why most people dont see this as a reasonable trade to go down.
RhodeyYankee2638
11-30-05, 03:26 PM
The thing is, if the Yankees do this deal, it doesnt solve their CF problem. If the Phillies included Michaels or Rowand, I could see them trying to get this deal going ASAP (especially if Rowand were involved). But with the way the trade is now, it doesnt fill any of the Yankees immidiate needs, and that's why most people dont see this as a reasonable trade to go down.
If we have Jeter, Cano, A-Rod, Sheff, Abreu, Matsui and Giambi as the first 7 hitters in our lineeup, I dnt think we are gonna have problems scoring runs. That means we could afford to put Crosby in center, or platoon him with someone else. It doesnt solve our long term CF problem, but it would be better than draining the farm for Torrii Hunter, or Juan Pierre
Yankeeah
11-30-05, 03:27 PM
If we have Jeter, Cano, A-Rod, Sheff, Abreu, Matsui and Giambi as the first 7 hitters in our lineeup, I dnt think we are gonna have problems scoring runs. That means we could afford to put Crosby in center, or platoon him with someone else. It doesnt solve our long term CF problem, but it would be better than draining the farm for Torrii Hunter, or Juan Pierre
Agreed. All we would need was someone who could play a good defense, offense wouldn't matter.
Kulish29
11-30-05, 03:34 PM
If we have Jeter, Cano, A-Rod, Sheff, Abreu, Matsui and Giambi as the first 7 hitters in our lineeup, I dnt think we are gonna have problems scoring runs. That means we could afford to put Crosby in center, or platoon him with someone else. It doesnt solve our long term CF problem, but it would be better than draining the farm for Torrii Hunter, or Juan Pierre
See, I dont buy the whole "we have enough offense, so it's ok to put a hole in the line-up" argument. Not knocking it, just dont believe in it. You have to score more runs than your opponent to win the game. If you put together a line-up that has the least amount of offensive holes as possible, that, in all likelyhood, gives you the best chance of winning.
With the way the trade is speculated now, I wouldnt do it. It doesnt fit the Yankees needs. But, if they were to add Michaels or Rowand, I'd do it. The only substitution I'd make is, instead of Pavano, I'd trade Chacon. I'll get flamed for it, but I think he has just as many question marks going into this season as Pavano.
If we have Jeter, Cano, A-Rod, Sheff, Abreu, Matsui and Giambi as the first 7 hitters in our lineeup, I dnt think we are gonna have problems scoring runs. That means we could afford to put Crosby in center, or platoon him with someone else. It doesnt solve our long term CF problem, but it would be better than draining the farm for Torrii Hunter, or Juan Pierre
This would mean Giambi would have to play first every day unless Abreu or Sheff could play it. I don't think he could play first more than 2/3 of the season, as it will wear him down and that will show at the plate.
RhodeyYankee2638
11-30-05, 03:45 PM
This would mean Giambi would have to play first every day unless Abreu or Sheff could play it. I don't think he could play first more than 2/3 of the season, as it will wear him down and that will show at the plate.
Really? Take a look at Giambi's stats while playing at 1st compared to DH'ing. They are far an away superior
RhodeyYankee2638
11-30-05, 03:48 PM
See, I dont buy the whole "we have enough offense, so it's ok to put a hole in the line-up" argument. Not knocking it, just dont believe in it. You have to score more runs than your opponent to win the game. If you put together a line-up that has the least amount of offensive holes as possible, that, in all likelyhood, gives you the best chance of winning.
With the way the trade is speculated now, I wouldnt do it. It doesnt fit the Yankees needs. But, if they were to add Michaels or Rowand, I'd do it. The only substitution I'd make is, instead of Pavano, I'd trade Chacon. I'll get flamed for it, but I think he has just as many question marks going into this season as Pavano.
Would they have an outfield left if they got rid of Michaels or Rowand along with Abreu? And if they took Chacon instead of Pavano, it would be the trade of the century
MTYankee23
11-30-05, 03:53 PM
I'm not sure why we'd want to give up Chacon who we're only comitted to for this year at short money, instead of Pavano who has just an ugly, ugly contract, and i'm not terribly convinced he was ever all that great of a pitcher to begin with.
AMYanks
11-30-05, 04:07 PM
This would mean Giambi would have to play first every day unless Abreu or Sheff could play it. I don't think he could play first more than 2/3 of the season, as it will wear him down and that will show at the plate.
Giambi is an average hitter as the DH. As the 1B, he is flat out awesome.
wileedog
11-30-05, 04:10 PM
The thing is, if the Yankees do this deal, it doesnt solve their CF problem. If the Phillies included Michaels or Rowand, I could see them trying to get this deal going ASAP (especially if Rowand were involved). But with the way the trade is now, it doesnt fill any of the Yankees immidiate needs, and that's why most people dont see this as a reasonable trade to go down.
There's no doubt in my mind the Yanks asked for Michaels or Rowand first, but Philly came back with Abreu (assuming these talks happened at all).
Its possible the Philly's are just not interested in moving a young, cheap OFer.
Kulish29
11-30-05, 04:18 PM
Would they have an outfield left if they got rid of Michaels or Rowand along with Abreu? And if they took Chacon instead of Pavano, it would be the trade of the century
If they got rid of Michaels or Rowand and Abreu, they'd still have an OF of Burrell, Rowand, Victorino or Burrell, Victorino, Michaels.
There has been rumors that they would be interested in Chacon.
wileedog
11-30-05, 04:19 PM
See, I dont buy the whole "we have enough offense, so it's ok to put a hole in the line-up" argument. Not knocking it, just dont believe in it. You have to score more runs than your opponent to win the game. If you put together a line-up that has the least amount of offensive holes as possible, that, in all likelyhood, gives you the best chance of winning.
I'm not in love it with either.
But I'm not sure we are going to have a choice, and if we are going to get stuck with a black hole in CF I think we should over-compensate in RF.
I wouldn't move Michaels if I was Philly unless someone knocked my socks off. He's 29, seems to be coming into his own as a hitter, is very versatile and his still very cheap. They can afford to keep him as a great insurance policy. He's certainly not going to be a 'throw-in' on this deal.
Conversely, he's never had more than 300 ABs in a season, shows little power, and is not 'all that' defensively. I'd be rather wary as the Yanks of unloading lots of chips in a deal centered around him.
Its not a good situation to make a deal.
There's no doubt in my mind the Yanks asked for Michaels or Rowand first, but Philly came back with Abreu (assuming these talks happened at all).
Its possible the Philly's are just not interested in moving a young, cheap OFer.
I'd guess that that is an extreme oversimplification. Negotiations rarely involve player names changing on one side for the exact same package on the other. It's more likely that the Phillies asked for a lesser package for Rowand, the Yankees thought it was too much, and things expanded to this point.
RhodeyYankee2638
11-30-05, 04:22 PM
If they got rid of Michaels or Rowand and Abreu, they'd still have an OF of Burrell, Rowand, Victorino or Burrell, Victorino, Michaels.
There has been rumors that they would be interested in Chacon.
I like Chacon, but I think that his K/BB are eventually going to catch up with him next year
Really? Take a look at Giambi's stats while playing at 1st compared to DH'ing. They are far an away superior
Giambi is an average hitter as the DH. As the 1B, he is flat out awesome.
I realize that Giambi has much better hitting numbers playing first, and I think he should be there for at least half of this season. Yet there are a couple of reasons I don't think he should play more than 2/3 of the season there:
1) Giambi weighs a ton and has knee and back problems. By having to play first every day, including stretching and diving for balls, he slowly (or quickly) gets hurt and tired more and more. His hitting would take a massive downturn around July/August if he played almost every day (remember his 1-2 week slumps near the end of the year last year? I guarantee they were because of pain and fatigue)
2) His 1B skills are not going to improve, and most likely as he gets older, slower, and more knee/back problems they will get worse and playing first will hurt him more and more. He will need to learn to hit as well from the DH if he wants to keep playing Major League Baseball towards the end of this contract and for any new one.
My ultimate point is that having Abreu, Sheffield, and Giambi on this team when none of them can play center means that either one of them will have to miss a lot of time or Abreu or Sheff will have to play first because Giambi just can't play first every day.
YankClipper5
11-30-05, 04:23 PM
If they got rid of Michaels or Rowand and Abreu, they'd still have an OF of Burrell, Rowand, Victorino or Burrell, Victorino, Michaels.
There has been rumors that they would be interested in Chacon.
I like Chacon a bunch but if a big trade is made, I see the yanks parting with a pitcher due to the surplus of them a long with a few with good trade values. I would not be opposed to moving Chacon if it lands Abreu but what would be the OF configuration with him in the mix? move Matsui to CF??
RhodeyYankee2638
11-30-05, 04:25 PM
I realize that Giambi has much better hitting numbers playing first, and I think he should be there for at least half of this season. Yet there are a couple of reasons I don't think he should play more than 2/3 of the season there:
.
2/3 of the season is about 110 games. I dont think that is going to be a problem for him at all. I dont think 130 would be a problem, as long as he gets rested 1-2 times a week
2/3 of the season is about 110 games. I dont think that is going to be a problem for him at all. I dont think 130 would be a problem, as long as he gets rested 1-2 times a week
I think things will catch up to him faster than that. Giambi only played 78 games at first last year and was out with back spasms by the end. And he looked tired at the plate a lot.
You could be right, but I doubt it.
wileedog
11-30-05, 04:28 PM
I'd guess that that is an extreme oversimplification. Negotiations rarely involve player names changing on one side for the exact same package on the other. It's more likely that the Phillies asked for a lesser package for Rowand, the Yankees thought it was too much, and things expanded to this point.
Yes, I was being simplistic.
But you got my point that my bet is the Yanks didn't call Philly first looking for Abreu. And it got to Abreu because they couldn't find a match for Rowand.
Obviously we don't and won't know exactly how the negotiations progressed, I just doubt the Yanks didn't start by asking about Rowand/Michaels.
wileedog
11-30-05, 04:32 PM
I think things will catch up to him faster than that. Giambi only played 78 games at first last year and was out with back spasms by the end. And he looked tired at the plate a lot.
You could be right, but I doubt it.
Thing is Giambi hit .209 with a .367 SLG last year as a DH.
We almost would have been better off DHing Womack, except for the walks.
Giambi might be better off getting full days off, but less of them, and not DHing at all.
Yes, I was being simplistic.
But you got my point that my bet is the Yanks didn't call Philly first looking for Abreu. And it got to Abreu because they couldn't find a match for Rowand.
Obviously we don't and won't know exactly how the negotiations progressed, I just doubt the Yanks didn't start by asking about Rowand/Michaels.
If Rowand is on the table and the Yankees have players that the Phillies want, then there's a match. I just think the Yankees got distracted by the shiney slugger.
Thing is Giambi hit .209 with a .367 SLG last year as a DH.
We almost would have been better off DHing Womack, except for the walks.
Giambi might be better off getting full days off, but less of them, and not DHing at all.
Given his .404 OBP, the walks are a fairly big exception. Oh, and Womack slugged .280.
Even a deal like Chacon or Wang + Duncan for Abreu sounds unCashman like
and while I wouldn't be too upset by a Pavano + Duncan for Abreu deal, I don't want the Yanks to get the reputation of the team that discards FA starters after 1 bad year.
wileedog
11-30-05, 05:08 PM
Given his .404 OBP, the walks are a fairly big exception. Oh, and Womack slugged .280.
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1. A cutting, often ironic remark intended to wound.
2. A form of wit that is marked by the use of sarcastic language and is intended to make its victim the butt of contempt or ridicule.
Kulish29
11-30-05, 06:12 PM
I like Chacon a bunch but if a big trade is made, I see the yanks parting with a pitcher due to the surplus of them a long with a few with good trade values. I would not be opposed to moving Chacon if it lands Abreu but what would be the OF configuration with him in the mix? move Matsui to CF??
In my scenario, the trade included Michaels or Rowand.
Kulish29
11-30-05, 06:14 PM
I like Chacon, but I think that his K/BB are eventually going to catch up with him next year
That worries me and so does the fact that he's never pitched a full season in the AL and has never pitched 200 innings in a season.
That's why I wouldnt mind trading him and signing someone like Jarrod Washburn.
AMYanks
11-30-05, 07:10 PM
I think things will catch up to him faster than that. Giambi only played 78 games at first last year and was out with back spasms by the end. And he looked tired at the plate a lot.
You could be right, but I doubt it.
Considering the physical hell he went through the year before, his body was not ready for a full season, yet.
Considering the physical hell he went through the year before, his body was not ready for a full season, yet.
Plus the mental stress. I expect a .300/.440/.560 season from Giambi this year.
Plus the mental stress. I expect a .300/.440/.560 season from Giambi this year.That might be a little much. I expect lower AVG and lower SLG. The OBP might be a hair lower, too.
AMYanks
11-30-05, 07:26 PM
Plus the mental stress. I expect a .300/.440/.560 season from Giambi this year.
Hopefully, you're right. I'd expect the line to be a little lower than that.
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