View Full Version : The Potential of Robinson Cano
Perhaps the best thing to happen to this team this year was the addition of Cano. At 22 years of age, he put up startling numbers: a .297 average (.320 OBP) and a .458 slugging ptc. He had 52 extra base hits, more than Jeter, Posada and Giambi. Although he made 17 errors, he also made some remarkable plays throughout the season, and finished 2nd in qualified second baseman in the A.L. in range factor (RF). He turns the DP well and has a great arm. To cap it off, he did a good job in the playoffs for a rookie, hitting .263 with a .421 SLG and 5 RBIs, and began to take some pitches that he was chasing during the regular season. He will probably never have the power and certainly not the speed of Soriano, but I think he's a smarter player and will not be handled easily by the top pitchers in playoff games the way Soriano was.
Which brings us to his future. I think he'll adjust a bit at the plate and be more selective, which will drive up his walk total and OBP. His fielding will improve as well as his power, and by the time he reaches his peak years 4 or 5 years from now he could be a top star in the league. Also, a good-hitting lefty second baseman is a rare commodity. What fun it would be to have someone like Cano appear on the team every year to watch mature from a 22 year-old kid into a solid major leaguer, similar to the way we watched Jeter grow here. Personally, it's much more fun than the instant gratification of a star free agent.
I love having young players on the team. :) This guy and Wang made my year.
Tal Hawkins
10-12-05, 12:19 PM
Personally, it's much more fun than the instant gratification of a star free agent.
Ditto. I'm really looking forward to watching Cano develop over the next few years into a great 2nd baseman...he's going to be solid for many years to come.
began to take some pitches that he was chasing during the regular season.
He definitely played well in the postseason, but it looked to me like he was still chasing some bad pitches...especially on those 2 strikeouts Monday night.
NelsonMuntz
10-12-05, 12:22 PM
I really like this kid a lot. Hopefully he can learn to be a little more selective at the plate. Defensively I think he'll be fine. For me, the emergence of Cano was one of the highlights of the season. Thank you Miguel Cairo's agent for overestimating the market for your client, and thank you Tony Womack for sucking.
EdRuane
10-12-05, 12:32 PM
He definitely played well in the postseason, but it looked to me like he was still chasing some bad pitches...especially on those 2 strikeouts Monday night.
I think he started pressing. Early in the series, he seemed very relaxed and poised for a rookie in his first postseason game. As the series progressed, though, I think it started getting to him and he tried to do more than he was capable of. He looked pretty bad on those two strikeouts. Both balls were in the dirt.
(Unfortunately, he should've been on first after one of them, but I believe that's for another thread to discuss.)
b_joseph
10-12-05, 12:34 PM
Cano's potential enables me to finally forget about Soriano.
I did not think that would happen.
noneckwilliams
10-12-05, 12:36 PM
cano has untapped opposite field power. if he learns to take the ball the other way on a regular basis he can hit .320. i'm not sure he'll ever be a high obp guy but if he becomes less of a pull hitter he'll be a real force.
I hope he can eventually learn to take a walk
Darth_Takeo
10-12-05, 12:46 PM
I hope he can eventually learn to take a walk
He was taking more pitches as the season progressed. Not necessarily walking a lot but I think he's learning. He was definitely improving.
He was taking more pitches as the season progressed. Not necessarily walking a lot but I think he's learning. He was definitely improving.Sure seemed that way to me. Particularly, he took some very close pitches just off the plate, which is a good sign that he's developing patience and a good batting eye. Soriano would chase curves a foot outside, even though everybody in the park and those watching on TV, and even Soriano himself, knew it was coming.
Soriambi
10-12-05, 12:55 PM
He was taking more pitches as the season progressed. Not necessarily walking a lot but I think he's learning. He was definitely improving.
Overall Pitches/PA: 3.05
May: 2.92
June: 3.06
July: 2.93
August: 3.14
September: 3.23
He certainly seemed to start taking some more pitches, but it wasn't as much as it seemed to the naked eye, I don't think. It's a good sign that he started around 2.92 in May and ended up at 3.23 in the September, and hopefully that progression continues, and isn't just a fluke. I think that he has a chance to be a pretty good hitter, but these comparisons by Torre to Rod Carew and people might be setting the expectations a bit high..
stephsamps
10-12-05, 12:56 PM
I really like this kid a lot. Hopefully he can learn to be a little more selective at the plate. Defensively I think he'll be fine. For me, the emergence of Cano was one of the highlights of the season. Thank you Miguel Cairo's agent for overestimating the market for your client, and thank you Tony Womack for sucking.
:lol:
But I completely agree. Our hidden gems were definitely the highlight of the season for me. I also love that Cano has (most) always got a smile on his face and seems to be enjoying it. Here's hoping that DJ has found his double play partner for a long while :)
EdRuane
10-12-05, 12:59 PM
Overall Pitches/PA: 3.05
May: 2.92
June: 3.06
July: 2.93
August: 3.14
September: 3.23
He certainly seemed to start taking some more pitches, but it wasn't as much as it seemed to the naked eye, I don't think. It's a good sign that he started around 2.92 in May and ended up at 3.23 in the September, and hopefully that progression continues, and isn't just a fluke. I think that he has a chance to be a pretty good hitter, but these comparisons by Torre to Rod Carew and people might be setting the expectations a bit high..
He was taking more pitches when he wasn't grounding out on the first pitch, if that makes any sense.
Michaels07
10-12-05, 01:08 PM
Some Sportswriters are pushing for the Yanks to trade Cano for a star centerfielder.
b_joseph
10-12-05, 01:10 PM
Some Sportswriters are pushing for the Yanks to trade Cano for a star centerfielder.
thats sheffields job
Some Sportswriters are pushing for the Yanks to trade Cano for a star centerfielder.Such as???
EdRuane
10-12-05, 01:18 PM
Such as???
Lupica? Perhaps he's hoping the Yanks raise the payroll so he can harp on it for yet another year.
27IsNext
10-12-05, 01:20 PM
I think his power will improve a bit more next year, and his BB rate will go up. As mentioned, he started taking more pitches later in the year, esp. during the ALDS.
EDIT: Save for the errors, he's a good defender too. +9 UZR at the season's halfway point. He needs to learn to stay focused so th errors will go down. If we get Piniella, that will help tons.
Lupica? Perhaps he's hoping the Yanks raise the payroll so he can harp on it for yet another year.Actually, I was looking for potential centerfielders. To trade someone with Cano's potential, especially considering how young he is, would have to fetch quite a prize. Anything older than 28 and not anything short of a gold glove with a solid bat should be out of the question.
stephsamps
10-12-05, 01:25 PM
Some Sportswriters are pushing for the Yanks to trade Cano for a star centerfielder.
And that is why they are sports writers :).
surge511
10-12-05, 01:26 PM
For no reason should we trade Cano. He is so good. He has the potential to turn into one of the best second baseman in the game, and he is homegrown, part of the 'new generation' of babyyankees. I love watching him
Kulish29
10-12-05, 01:28 PM
Some Sportswriters are pushing for the Yanks to trade Cano for a star centerfielder.
It's a good thing they're just sportswriters then.
The Yankees finally have a permanent answer at second base. Cano should be there for years to come. Trading him for anything other than a proven Ace would be stupid.
Born in the Bronx
10-12-05, 01:35 PM
I would seriously consider trading this guy if the price is right. We always buy high and sell low, right now, his value is pretty high. Let's put a package together for Torii Hunter.
panicfan
10-12-05, 01:37 PM
I didn't see that in Lupica today...got a quote?
Lupica? Perhaps he's hoping the Yanks raise the payroll so he can harp on it for yet another year.
ICEBERG18
10-12-05, 01:40 PM
I didn't see that in Lupica today...got a quote?
It was Heyman that said trade Cano for Hunter.
I Love Wang
10-12-05, 01:41 PM
I would seriously consider trading this guy if the price is right. We always buy high and sell low, right now, his value is pretty high. Let's put a package together for Torii Hunter.
Why not keep a player that could be very productive for us, instead of trading for an overvalued Sportscenter all-star like Torii Hunter, who is almost 10 years older?
cano has untapped opposite field power. if he learns to take the ball the other way on a regular basis he can hit .320. i'm not sure he'll ever be a high obp guy but if he becomes less of a pull hitter he'll be a real force.
You'll absolutely right on this one. I've seen my times this year where he just flicked his wrist and the went to the left field warning track. No question this kid is going to be a star. We're set at third, short and second for at least 7 more years.
Some Sportswriters are pushing for the Yanks to trade Cano for a star centerfielder.
Most sportswriters do not know what the hell they are talking about
panicfan
10-12-05, 01:49 PM
Is he News or Post?
Bad Move.
It will hopefully never happen.
It was Heyman that said trade Cano for Hunter.
I would seriously consider trading this guy if the price is right. We always buy high and sell low, right now, his value is pretty high. Let's put a package together for Torii Hunter.
Tori Hunter??? In my opinon Cano is already a better hitter than Torii Hunter. Sure he's a great CF, but if do not know if he could handle the pressures of playing in NYC. We already know that Cano can!
panicfan
10-12-05, 01:53 PM
I am against this trade, but Tori Hunter is absolutely what we need defensively. Sherman was talking about Sheff for Hunter. I'd do that.
Tori Hunter??? In my opinon Cano is already a better hitter than Torii Hunter. Sure he's a great CF, but if do not know if he could handle the pressures of playing in NYC. We already know that Cano can!
I Love Wang
10-12-05, 01:56 PM
I am against this trade, but Tori Hunter is absolutely what we need defensively. Sherman was talking about Sheff for Hunter. I'd do that.
Hunter's value is far less than Sheffield's. I'd demand Hunter and Joe Nathan for Sheffield. I'd rather trade Sheffield for Wells or Rowand, who are both better fielders than Hunter.
Can who? Can oh? He's not a name and worse yet, he's from the farm. We can't have someone from the farm and is not a BIG NAME playing for a George Steinbrenner team. No, this kid must be sacraficed on the alter of the overthehill "proven winner." Its the George show now folks, Can-oh. . away ya go!!!
Steph19
10-12-05, 01:59 PM
I love Cano and I really like how he showed improvement on the taking pitches and especially the bunting. Early on he looked clueless and by the end of the year, he was laying them down with quality most of the time.
But I am worried about one thing with him...
He's already got a bigger build then Soriano and he's only 22. What if he fills out more, raising his power numbers but loses too much range to stay at second base? Remember, that's why the D'Backs didn't want to trade for him. They thought he could hit but figured he may wind up at 3b or 1b and not hit well enough for that position. Is this a real worry we should have?
flymick24
10-12-05, 02:03 PM
It was Heyman that said trade Cano for Hunter.
heyman's been getting on my nerves lately
I am against this trade, but Tori Hunter is absolutely what we need defensively. Sherman was talking about Sheff for Hunter. I'd do that.
I wouldn't trade Sheff either. There only a handful of players I would trade Sheff for and none are available.
Why not keep a player that could be very productive for us, instead of trading for an overvalued Sportscenter all-star like Torii Hunter, who is almost 10 years older?Even if Hunter was the same age, I don't think I'd make the trade. He doesn't hit for much of an average, so we'd be getting the defense and some good power in exchange for somebody who will probably be more valuable down the road. A gold glove CF is more valuable than a gold glove 2B, but they're both up-the-middle positions so the difference isn't too much.
Born in the Bronx
10-12-05, 02:20 PM
Cano showed an incredible amount of promise this year, but I'm not convinced he's going to be a star. At times he has looked like a very stupid and lazy ballplayer. Is it just youth and inexperience? Will he improve as he gets older? Perhaps. All I know is there's just something about him that I don't like and his stock is very high right now.
panicfan
10-12-05, 02:27 PM
But, we are coming up on the last year of his contract, so we might be able to trade Sheff to grab someone who's not a free agent and sign them to an extension.
Just a thought
I wouldn't trade Sheff either. There only a handful of players I would trade Sheff for and none are available.
Kluivert4Ever
10-12-05, 02:33 PM
Cano this year had 14 homeruns in 132 games.
Translate that into a full year and you got around 17-18 homeruns during a full year, that is not bad for a 22 year old rookie.
I am convinced that he can in his prime hit .310 and also around 25-30 homeruns. Thats not bad.
Kluivert4Ever
10-12-05, 02:34 PM
http://espn-i.starwave.com/media/apphoto/NYFF10210111719.jpg
Poor Robbie, looks so sad:(
wileedog
10-12-05, 02:39 PM
Cano this year had 14 homeruns in 132 games.
Translate that into a full year and you got around 17-18 homeruns during a full year, that is not bad for a 22 year old rookie.
I am convinced that he can in his prime hit .310 and also around 25-30 homeruns. Thats not bad.
Also worth noting is Cano smacked 34 doubles. He didn't walk much, but relatively speaking for a 22 year old he didn't K too much either.
I think he's going to be one of those tough out, line drive gap hitters, which would be a great complement to the high OBP guys around him.
Kluivert4Ever
10-12-05, 02:41 PM
Also worth noting is Cano smacked 34 doubles. He didn't walk much, but relatively speaking for a 22 year old he didn't K too much either.
I think he's going to be one of those tough out, line drive gap hitters, which would be a great complement to the high OBP guys around him.
Exactly, and as he gets stronger those doubles can start turning into homeruns.
The sky is the limit for this kid.
Michaels07
10-12-05, 02:46 PM
Cano must improve his defense and cut out the styling.If you want to remain a Yankee act like one.
Kluivert4Ever
10-12-05, 02:48 PM
Cano must improve his defense and cut out the styling.If you want to remain a Yankee act like one.
What styling?
yankeebot
10-12-05, 02:50 PM
I hope he fields 5,899,076,992 groundbballs in an instructional league over the winter.
Shaun4013
10-12-05, 03:40 PM
Cano is going to have a GREAT year next year, and will be much better deffensivly.
Crusadecat
10-12-05, 03:42 PM
Cano is the goods. I'd like to see the direction that was started this year , pulling in some young talent continue.
TheTinoMobile
10-12-05, 03:54 PM
If the Yankees trade Cano, I will personally boycott the season... Brian Cashman fought for this kid, for the front office to see what he could do and how good he really was, not so that they could see how valuable he would be in a trade for some bad hitting CF ala Torii Hunter.
The Q Bomb
10-12-05, 03:54 PM
The Yankees would be absolute idiots to trade Cano.
mrmike98
10-12-05, 03:56 PM
The Yankees would be absolute idiots to trade Cano.
I agree. However, I'm a little concerned about his baseball IQ.
I think Cano is an absolute godsend for us at 2nd base. How soon we forget the misery that was better known as.......errrrr......Tony Womack. :barf: Granted Cano has his shortcomings, but in all fairness.....he was a rookie. I think he did remarkably taking that into consideration. In comparison, Womack couldn't do ****!
I really don't care how well he plays. For me it's enough that he has a super cool name.
keithf1
01-05-06, 11:23 PM
Very good thread. I think he will be an all-star within the next 3 years.
I don't know if anyone has commented on this yet, but this thread title is amazing.
It sounds like a really serious drama-type movie, like "The Madness of Edward Scott" or something. Its pretty awesome.
keithf1
01-05-06, 11:33 PM
I think his power will improve a bit more next year, and his BB rate will go up. As mentioned, he started taking more pitches later in the year, esp. during the ALDS.
EDIT: Save for the errors, he's a good defender too. +9 UZR at the season's halfway point. He needs to learn to stay focused so th errors will go down. If we get Piniella, that will help tons.
I agree. His errors seemed to be when he lost focus or mental errors. It will be corrected. I'm looking forward to watching him in 06.
flymick24
01-05-06, 11:54 PM
he needs to learn how to walk more.. his improving OBP from month to month in 2005 was merely a result of increasing number of hits
keithf1
01-06-06, 12:04 AM
he needs to learn how to walk more.. his improving OBP from month to month in 2005 was merely a result of increasing number of hits
While the hits did help his OBP, a few posts up showed he began to take more pitches.
jimmyclark
01-06-06, 12:18 AM
The similiarity scores on Baseball-reference.com have the following matches to Cano
Fred Dunlap (1880s player. good 12 year career)
Tony Lazzeri ("Poosh 'em up" is a HOF)
Jim Viox (no relation to medicine. lasted a few years in 1910s)
Erve Beck (short career in 1900s)
Dots Miller (1910s player, good 12 year career)
Ron Hunt (1960s player..famous for being HBP)
Jim Tabor (1940s player. was fell off suddenly after WWII)
Paul Molitor (1980s-90s HOF. overcame 11 trips on DL and cocaine)
Billy Herman (HOF. probably shouldn't be was very good player)
Travis Fryman (1990s good player)
It is a pretty good list to be compared to. Rod Carew is not mentioned although Torre uses him because they have similiar swings. I don't know if Viox and Tabor had injuries that ended their careers or not.
JavyVazquezIsSick
01-06-06, 01:24 AM
I have his jersey, I hope they keep him...But Cano seems solid...
flymick24
01-06-06, 01:42 AM
While the hits did help his OBP, a few posts up showed he began to take more pitches.
taking more pitches is only useful if doing so will eventually lead to a higher walk rate
shutout
01-06-06, 03:33 AM
I think Cano has got great potential. Therefor I wouldn't be amazed if he'll get to be an All Star within a few years. The Yankees would indeed be idiots if they trade him.
utopiapkwy
01-06-06, 09:20 AM
taking more pitches is only useful if doing so will eventually lead to a higher walk rate
Taking more pitches is useful if doing so will eventually lead to the bullpen as well.
goin for 27
01-06-06, 09:28 AM
taking more pitches is only useful if doing so will eventually lead to a higher walk rate
That is exactly what it leads to. You can't walk if you don't take at least four pitches....
I think that the ceiling on Cano is very high. He will develop as a ML hitter, and will certainly become more patient at the plate. I would hope that this season, he will have a slight trend upwards. I am sure that he will have his slumps, etc, but I expect him to grow immensely at the plate. He could be a bona fide superstar in a few years. (Not saying he definitely will, but he is just a baby)
His defense should improve well, as he learns to concentrate every play. Most of his errors were "rookie errors". Jeter said that he will improve, that most rookies make nervous, or distracted mistakes. That could even improve a ton this year, as he knows he is the every day guy.
Cold Shad
01-06-06, 09:43 AM
That is exactly what it leads to. You can't walk if you don't take at least four pitches....
I think that the ceiling on Cano is very high. He will develop as a ML hitter, and will certainly become more patient at the plate. I would hope that this season, he will have a slight trend upwards. I am sure that he will have his slumps, etc, but I expect him to grow immensely at the plate. He could be a bona fide superstar in a few years. (Not saying he definitely will, but he is just a baby)
His defense should improve well, as he learns to concentrate every play. Most of his errors were "rookie errors". Jeter said that he will improve, that most rookies make nervous, or distracted mistakes. That could even improve a ton this year, as he knows he is the every day guy.
I didn't think he ever looked nervous to his credit. I think Torre was concerned that he cadillaced it a little in the field and seemed to be more concerned with style than substance. This is understandable for a rookie who is looking acrosss the infield at Arod. If he works as hard as Arod did to get that Stylish I'm sure his manager will be real happy.
YankeeStripes
01-06-06, 09:47 AM
Robinson Cano needs a "kyle farnsworth-esque" thread.
(i.e. "Robinson Cano drinks lava and poops glass sculptures.")
brosiusbuddy
01-06-06, 10:17 AM
He definitely played well in the postseason, but it looked to me like he was still chasing some bad pitches...especially on those 2 strikeouts Monday night.
Patience is rarely ever natural in a players plate approach. Rookies are unfamiliar with umps and the major league strike zone as well as opposing pitchers and when you add that to the fact that rookies are always trying to get base hits, the obp will reflect. It is something all rookies go through and I doubt is something we should worry about.
I think that by the time Cano is in his peak, he will undoubtedly be the league's best 2nd baseman both offensively and defensively. He has the ability to hit for power to all fields and good defensive instincts and ability. In a few years we may see Cano up around the 30 hr mark and a .300+ avg. Depending on his slot in the batting order, he could possibly drive in 100 runs as well. I'm ecstatic that we've gone through an offseason and he's still on our team and not traded for some big money guy who used to be an allstar.
shcabot
01-06-06, 10:28 AM
So am I. He has a lot of talent and it's great that we didn't give that talent up for some older player. I'm so excited to see what kind of player he turns into.
shcabot
01-06-06, 10:31 AM
Just no injuries please.
BronxBombers2005
01-06-06, 10:32 AM
Just two words....LOOK OUT. This kid has the potential to be a great baseball player. For a young player like him playing on the biggest stage there is he did fantastic. It reminded me of Jeter when he first came to the yankees, it was like there was no pressure on them.
But look out in the near future, he will be one of the biggest name in baseball. And like all players his defense will come to him.
The Q Bomb
01-06-06, 12:56 PM
Ditto. I'm really looking forward to watching Cano develop over the next few years into a great 2nd baseman...he's going to be solid for many years to come.
He definitely played well in the postseason, but it looked to me like he was still chasing some bad pitches...especially on those 2 strikeouts Monday night.
Let's just hope that all of the fans who are "looking forward" to watching Cano develop and who "prefer homegrown talent to the instant gratification of free agents" will not crucify this kid the minute he struggles for a month. Those struggles are what make young players strong. Does anyone remember Jeter in May of '97? He couldn't buy a hit! Look what kind of player he is!
PlsDontTearDownY.S.
01-06-06, 01:35 PM
Cano must improve his defense and cut out the styling.If you want to remain a Yankee act like one.
Posada styles all the time, it drives me crazy but he's still here so I think that walk like a Yankee thing is overblown. As far as Cano's D, I think it's a concentration thing. He's got he ability to make the plays.
This thread is like the Mars Rover lander. It was alive, then stopped transmitting for weeks, then came back to life.
This thread is like the Mars Rover lander. It was alive, then stopped transmitting for weeks, then came back to life.
:lol:
Yeah Cano's gonna be aiight.
CelerinoSanchez
01-06-06, 03:40 PM
He needs to improve his OBP or he will become Soriano, but with less power.
Arod for President
01-06-06, 05:45 PM
Cano must improve his defense and cut out the styling.If you want to remain a Yankee act like one.
Yeah that statement couldnt be more incorrect. If anything Cano wants to fit into the yankees organization SO BAD that you were able to see how professional he tried to be throughout the season.
Arod for President
01-06-06, 05:47 PM
He needs to improve his OBP or he will become Soriano, but with less power.
Soriano is still one of my favorite players but one thing he never had was patience. Cano on the other hand ... from what I see looks to be a very quick learner. Hes patient at the plate, dosnt chase after garbage pitches and what i love most about him is the uncanny similarities between his and Rod Carew's swing :D
JeterRodriguezSheff
01-06-06, 05:50 PM
He needs to improve his OBP or he will become Soriano, but with less power.
Robinson Cano is likely going to be better than Soriano.
Sorianos rookie season:.268/.304/.432
Sorianos 2005:.268/.309/.512
Canos rookie season:.297/.320/.458
Factor in Cano was a few years younger than Soriano in their rookie seasons and that Cano plays better defense than Soriano and I think there is a good chance Cano becomes better than Soriano.
He needs to improve his OBP or he will become Soriano, but with less power.
He had a better OBP than Soriano last year(Sori also played in Texas last year) . Cano's OBP last year is the same as Soriano's career OBP, as in Cano's will only get better. Cano K's less, plays better D and costs less while being 7 years younger. Oh and Cano also had some big hits in the PS. He's already better than Soriano.
DontHateOnNumber2
01-06-06, 06:35 PM
If he gets more discipline at the plate and cuts down the errors then he'll be more than I thought he would be. When I first heard about him about 1 1/2 ago people I knew downplayed his potential. Needless to say, they shut up. :D
DontHateOnNumber2
01-06-06, 06:38 PM
I have his jersey, I hope they keep him...But Cano seems solid...
I'm borrowing this from Sam: Cano will be "aiight."
RIYankeeFan
01-06-06, 07:29 PM
I've got his jersey to. It gets funny reactions from Sox fans, great reactions from Yankee fans. It kinda shows that you aren't on the "typical bandwagon".
The most valuable thing about Cano is the position he plays. He doesn't have be one of the best hitters in baseball to have really high value for the Yankees. Once he learns to walk even a little, he'll be as good as any 2B with the bat. As for his D, the good thing is that his errors are not because of a lack of range but because of carelessness and loss of concentration. These are things that can be worked on and are also things traits more common among rookies.
Arod for President
01-06-06, 08:07 PM
The most valuable thing about Cano is the position he plays. He doesn't have be one of the best hitters in baseball to have really high value for the Yankees. Once he learns to walk even a little, he'll be as good as any 2B with the bat. As for his D, the good thing is that his errors are not because of a lack of range but because of carelessness and loss of concentration. These are things that can be worked on and are also things traits more common among rookies.
Good point but now.. these days 2B just like any other position are expected to produce power numbers... ie, B. Roberts, A. Soriano, M. Loretta
dont get me wrong, I hope Cano fits himself right into that category
Good point but now.. these days 2B just like any other position are expected to produce power numbers... ie, B. Roberts, A. Soriano, M. Loretta
dont get me wrong, I hope Cano fits himself right into that category
Not exactly, last year AL 2B batting averages was .271/.323/.413 ISO.142. Cano's number was .297/.320/.458 ISO.153.
Power should not be Cano's concern as a 2B. If he can learns to walk a little, he is a all-star.
Kluivert4Ever
01-06-06, 10:15 PM
I would seriously consider trading this guy if the price is right. We always buy high and sell low, right now, his value is pretty high. Let's put a package together for Torii Hunter.
In other words you think Cano has filled his potential at the age of 22?
Kluivert4Ever
01-06-06, 10:16 PM
Yeah Cano's gonna be aiight.
Word, Sam, Word.
flymick24
01-06-06, 11:06 PM
That is exactly what it leads to. You can't walk if you don't take at least four pitches....
I think that the ceiling on Cano is very high. He will develop as a ML hitter, and will certainly become more patient at the plate. I would hope that this season, he will have a slight trend upwards. I am sure that he will have his slumps, etc, but I expect him to grow immensely at the plate. He could be a bona fide superstar in a few years. (Not saying he definitely will, but he is just a baby)
His defense should improve well, as he learns to concentrate every play. Most of his errors were "rookie errors". Jeter said that he will improve, that most rookies make nervous, or distracted mistakes. That could even improve a ton this year, as he knows he is the every day guy.
look at his monthly splits. he might have taken more pitches as the season progressed, but his K/BB rate virtually stayed the same. so again, i say what is the point of taking pitches if it won't lead to walks? sure, it might help get to the bullpen, but that's hardly redeeming.
In other words you think Cano has filled his potential at the age of 22?
Funny thing is that Cano is already on par with Hunter's career numbers while being 7 years younger.
Why is everyone sucking up to Soriano so much. Did we already forget his neverending strikeout saga in the playoffs. :barf:
If Cano is only the number nine hitter that you have to face in this year's Yankee line-up, opposing pitchers are in for a world of pain.
Cano's a diamond in the rough. Once he settles down and becomes more sure of his place on the team, his defence will smooth out and Cashman is going to look like a genius for fighting to keep him versus a Tori Hunter, etc.
YankeePride1967
01-07-06, 09:18 AM
I hope Robinson Cano (along with Wang) represent the beginning of our return to a franchise that develops its own players and supplements them with free agents to build a winning team.
Sixty one
01-07-06, 10:22 AM
He does have great potential to be a superstar for many years to come. However, I just hope that he doesn't let this "star" status go to his head and therefore, become dificult to manage. He better watch that shortstop on the Yanks very closely on how to handle the media and management! ;) ;)
Mystic Merlyn
01-07-06, 10:33 AM
Why is everyone sucking up to Soriano so much. Did we already forget his neverending strikeout saga in the playoffs. :barf:
And the fact that he's not a very good player.
And the fact that he's not a very good player.Well, I wouldn't go that far, but he's not the type of player I like. He plays hard only when he wants to and seems to be unhappy too much of the time. What's worse though, is that he'll never be a big-spot success because he has some of that "Mr. May" syndrome....he eats up the normal pitching but craps the bed against the best, especially in pressure situations.
The Q Bomb
01-07-06, 11:57 AM
Posada styles all the time, it drives me crazy but he's still here so I think that walk like a Yankee thing is overblown. As far as Cano's D, I think it's a concentration thing. He's got he ability to make the plays.
Wait a minute! When does Posada "style"? I'm not the biggest Posada fan in the world - but I have never EVER seen him style and I watch almost every Yankee game every year. Personally, I don't think he's smart enough to style! ;)
keithf1
01-07-06, 11:59 AM
He does have great potential to be a superstar for many years to come. However, I just hope that he doesn't let this "star" status go to his head and therefore, become dificult to manage. He better watch that shortstop on the Yanks very closely on how to handle the media and management! ;) ;)
Yeah I agree. He still has a lot of work to do but the potential is certainly there.
Stryder2929
01-07-06, 12:24 PM
Robinson Cano had more extra-base hits (52) than teammate Derek Jeter (49) last year, despite being in the minors for the first month.
flymick24
01-07-06, 12:35 PM
Robinson Cano had more extra-base hits (52) than teammate Derek Jeter (49) last year, despite being in the minors for the first month.
a good number of those XBHs will undoubtedly translate into HRs in the coming years
he can easily hit 20-25 once his body fills out
Cold Shad
01-07-06, 02:04 PM
Wait a minute! When does Posada "style"? I'm not the biggest Posada fan in the world - but I have never EVER seen him style and I watch almost every Yankee game every year. Personally, I don't think he's smart enough to style! ;)
I think some of the pitchers ge irritated by Posada's mound visits with the obligatory tap on the chest. it seems Posada looks to take credit for what the pitcher does in crucial situations. Examples RJ and el Duque.
Mystic Merlyn
01-07-06, 03:13 PM
Well, I wouldn't go that far, but he's not the type of player I like. He plays hard only when he wants to and seems to be unhappy too much of the time. What's worse though, is that he'll never be a big-spot success because he has some of that "Mr. May" syndrome....he eats up the normal pitching but craps the bed against the best, especially in pressure situations.
He doesn't really "eat up" anyone. He puts up good power numbers, but his home/away splits show how heavily Arlington factored into his totals. Even with a great offensive park, Soriano put up a miserable OBP.
The reason he stinks in the playoffs and high-pressure situations is he is facing better pitching. Guys like Pedro will carve him up because of his lack of plate discipline. I think in 2003 he was really exposed in this respect.
A-rodGrl-13
01-07-06, 03:21 PM
I think Robbie's gonna be the next Miguel Tejada.
Niki<3
Mr. Mxylsplk
01-07-06, 03:35 PM
I think Robbie's gonna be the next Miguel Tejada.
There are a lot of things in this world that might happen. That's not one of them.
A-rodGrl-13
01-07-06, 04:08 PM
There are a lot of things in this world that might happen. That's not one of them.
What makes you say that?
pedromartinezfan
01-07-06, 04:34 PM
Miguel Tejada is one of the 10 best players in baseball. Cano will probably be a very, very solid player if he develops some plate discipline.
Mr. Mxylsplk
01-07-06, 04:57 PM
What makes you say that?
Pedro sums it up well.
Yankees1962
01-07-06, 05:08 PM
Pedro sums it up well.
Tejada is very good, but he struggled early in his career and you never know about how these players will develop over time. I'm not saying Cano can be as good, but he does have great potential as a hitter and can be solid with the glove at 2nd, if he continues to work hard and matures as a player and person.
Mr. Mxylsplk
01-07-06, 05:37 PM
Tejada is very good, but he struggled early in his career and you never know about how these players will develop over time. I'm not saying Cano can be as good, but he does have great potential as a hitter and can be solid with the glove at 2nd, if he continues to work hard and matures as a player and person.
I don't know what Tejada's early struggles have to do with anything. I'm not basing my opinion on Cano being behind where Tejada was at a similar age. I'm basing it on the fact that there's very little in Cano's minor league pedigree or in his rookie season to suggest he can reach the level Tejada has reached. Cano's a fine young player, and you certainly can never know how guys will develop over time, but it's extremely unrealistic to think Cano will reach Tejada's level.
Yankees1962
01-07-06, 05:47 PM
I don't know what Tejada's early struggles have to do with anything. I'm not basing my opinion on Cano being behind where Tejada was at a similar age. I'm basing it on the fact that there's very little in Cano's minor league pedigree or in his rookie season to suggest he can reach the level Tejada has reached. Cano's a fine young player, and you certainly can never know how guys will develop over time, but it's extremely unrealistic to think Cano will reach Tejada's level.
And there's very little in Tejada's early career to suggest that Tejada would've turnout to be this fine of a ballplayer as he is today which is my point, you just never know how good some of these players will be. Another case in point, Pujols who came out of nowhere to put up these great numbers with very little time in the minors.
Tejada is very good, but he struggled early in his career and you never know about how these players will develop over time. I'm not saying Cano can be as good, but he does have great potential as a hitter and can be solid with the glove at 2nd, if he continues to work hard and matures as a player and person.
Tejada was much more patient than Cano going all the way back to the minors. In terms of future peaks, this is a big distinction, as Cano is much more dependant on batting average. Batting averages fluctuate, even for the great hitters for average, and when they are a large part of your OBP, then those fluctuations have a big impact.
Mr. Mxylsplk
01-07-06, 06:32 PM
And there's very little in Tejada's early career to suggest that Tejada would've turnout to be this fine of a ballplayer as he is today which is my point, you just never know how good some of these players will be. Another case in point, Pujols who came out of nowhere to put up these great numbers with very little time in the minors.
Right, but very very few players turn out to be that good, and even fewer who don't show it early turn out to be that good. To project anyone to be that good is just very unrealistic. You're saying that since Tejada didn't show it and made it, then Cano could too. Sure, Cano could. But the overwhelming majority of guys who look like Cano don't get anywhere near as good as Tejada. Tejada's development would surely disprove the suggestion that Cano has absolutely positively no chance of becoming that good. But Tejada's development doesn't change the fact that almost no one becomes as good as him, and the evidence of hundreds of players suggests that the odds of Cano being that good is very very small. If you want to wait for it, knock yourself out. Just don't be too disappointed when it doesn't happen.
JavyVazquezIsSick
01-07-06, 06:46 PM
Tejada was much more patient than Cano going all the way back to the minors. In terms of future peaks, this is a big distinction, as Cano is much more dependant on batting average. Batting averages fluctuate, even for the great hitters for average, and when they are a large part of your OBP, then those fluctuations have a big impact.
Where are you finding Tejeda's minor league OBP? He has a career .338 OBP in the majors....
NJASDJDH
01-07-06, 07:20 PM
Where are you finding Tejeda's minor league OBP? He has a career .338 OBP in the majors....
Tejada took his walks in the minors.
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/T/miguel-tejada.shtml
Kluivert4Ever
01-07-06, 09:55 PM
I hope Robinson Cano (along with Wang) represent the beginning of our return to a franchise that develops its own players and supplements them with free agents to build a winning team.
I said it before and I will say it again, biggest off-season move, not dealing Cano and Wang.
Why is everyone sucking up to Soriano so much. Did we already forget his neverending strikeout saga in the playoffs. :barf:
i don't necessarily agree that he should be in the 9 spot...
at this point, he clearly has more to offer than bernie williams, and if jorge posada's numbers go down, then cano's gotta be batting 7th.
not to mention games in which giambi is not in the lineup in favor of phillips (for now it's phillips), cano should bat 6th, or 7th behind posada
i realize the 9 spot would be good because he has a little bit of speed, and it makes it nice turning over to damon/jeter, and that he doesn't walk enough, but if it were me, i'd have to put him higher
Yankees1962
01-08-06, 02:54 AM
Right, but very very few players turn out to be that good, and even fewer who don't show it early turn out to be that good. To project anyone to be that good is just very unrealistic. You're saying that since Tejada didn't show it and made it, then Cano could too. Sure, Cano could. But the overwhelming majority of guys who look like Cano don't get anywhere near as good as Tejada. Tejada's development would surely disprove the suggestion that Cano has absolutely positively no chance of becoming that good. But Tejada's development doesn't change the fact that almost no one becomes as good as him, and the evidence of hundreds of players suggests that the odds of Cano being that good is very very small. If you want to wait for it, knock yourself out. Just don't be too disappointed when it doesn't happen.
The following is my first post and please note what I said in bold so I really don't know what we're debating here since we appear to be in agreement.
Tejada is very good, but he struggled early in his career and you never know about how these players will develop over time. I'm not saying Cano can be as good, but he does have great potential as a hitter and can be solid with the glove at 2nd, if he continues to work hard and matures as a player and person.
Clete61
01-08-06, 08:34 AM
Right, but very very few players turn out to be that good, and even fewer who don't show it early turn out to be that good. To project anyone to be that good is just very unrealistic. You're saying that since Tejada didn't show it and made it, then Cano could too. Sure, Cano could. But the overwhelming majority of guys who look like Cano don't get anywhere near as good as Tejada. Tejada's development would surely disprove the suggestion that Cano has absolutely positively no chance of becoming that good. But Tejada's development doesn't change the fact that almost no one becomes as good as him, and the evidence of hundreds of players suggests that the odds of Cano being that good is very very small. If you want to wait for it, knock yourself out. Just don't be too disappointed when it doesn't happen.
Good post. My hope is that Cano becomes at least a Willie Randolph type player in the sense that he is dependable and consistent over the course of many seasons. Anything beyond that would be gravy.
yanksphan
01-08-06, 10:05 AM
Interesting that Cano had more XBH than Jeter this year.
noneckwilliams
01-08-06, 10:10 AM
Good post. My hope is that Cano becomes at least a Willie Randolph type player in the sense that he is dependable and consistent over the course of many seasons. Anything beyond that would be gravy.
Cano needs to tighten up his defense. I believe the metrics show he has very good range and I think he has a terrific arm - particularly on pegs from the outfield. Oddly enuf he has trouble with the routine throws and plays. This says to me he needs to keep his head in the game and focus. I don't know if this can be learned or it's just "Cano being Cano".
nhyankeefan
01-08-06, 10:51 AM
Cano needs to tighten up his defense. I believe the metrics show he has very good range and I think he has a terrific arm - particularly on pegs from the outfield. Oddly enuf he has trouble with the routine throws and plays. This says to me he needs to keep his head in the game and focus. I don't know if this can be learned or it's just "Cano being Cano".
I think it can definitely be learned. He just needs to apply the same focus to the routine plays as he does the more difficult ones. If he can do that he could turn into an above average defensive 2B.
noneckwilliams
01-08-06, 11:27 AM
I think it can definitely be learned. He just needs to apply the same focus to the routine plays as he does the more difficult ones. If he can do that he could turn into an above average defensive 2B.
He could be a very good defender but he's not there yet. It appeared as if Jeter and Arod and Sierra were mentoring Cano last season and if those guys can't get him to focus then no one can.
Where are you finding Tejeda's minor league OBP? He has a career .338 OBP in the majors....
Follow NJASDH's link.
I think the bigger point, though, is that because an extreme % of Cano's OBP is tied up in batting average, a change in batting average has a bigger relative effect than it has on a guy like Tejada. Even if he doesn't walk a lot, it's still always been more than Cano.
The difference last year between Cano's .320 OBP and a .300 OBP was about 10 hits. That isn't that much over the course of a season.
Another major advantage to having Cano.............he's cheap!!!!! :D
shutout
01-08-06, 01:36 PM
a good number of those XBHs will undoubtedly translate into HRs in the coming years
he can easily hit 20-25 once his body fills out
I agree with that, I like how he swings the bat. Once he gets more power, the HR's will undoubtely come.
HidekiIrabu
01-08-06, 02:06 PM
Yea I remeber some nice opposite field hits during the playoffs, he has great potential
Mr. Mxylsplk
01-08-06, 08:40 PM
Good post. My hope is that Cano becomes at least a Willie Randolph type player in the sense that he is dependable and consistent over the course of many seasons. Anything beyond that would be gravy.
Man, if he could learn the plate discipline Willie had, he would be something else. I can't imagine he can become that patient, but one can dream. :)
Dr. Gonzo
01-08-06, 09:09 PM
Well, I wouldn't go that far, but he's not the type of player I like. He plays hard only when he wants to and seems to be unhappy too much of the time. What's worse though, is that he'll never be a big-spot success because he has some of that "Mr. May" syndrome....he eats up the normal pitching but craps the bed against the best, especially in pressure situations.
he probably would have been the 2001 WS mvp, not for mo.
remember that he did get a big hit versus schilling that game 7, giving the yanks the lead.
But trading him for alex was a great deal. Its hard to imagine we got arod for so little.
keithf1
01-08-06, 09:10 PM
Miguel Tejada is one of the 10 best players in baseball. Cano will probably be a very, very solid player if he develops some plate discipline.
What about Tejada's numbers or anything about his game last year makes him a top 10 player? He had 1 top 10 year.
Yankeeah
01-09-06, 01:48 AM
What about Tejada's numbers or anything about his game last year makes him a top 10 player? He had 1 top 10 year.
Which one year was that?
The year he put up 30 homers and 115 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
The year he put up 31 homers and 113 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
The year he put up 34 homers and 131 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
The year he put up 34 homers and 150 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
Tejada is easily a top ten player
TheTinoMobile
01-09-06, 02:14 AM
The one's where he takes out the comb and makes his hair all nice and then puts it back in his pocket.
JeterRodriguezSheff
01-09-06, 01:26 PM
Which one year was that?
The year he put up 30 homers and 115 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
The year he put up 31 homers and 113 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
The year he put up 34 homers and 131 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
The year he put up 34 homers and 150 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
Tejada is easily a top ten player
Whats with the homers and RBIS? OPS is one of the best non saber stats to judge a player performance, that being said I have no clue what Tejada's OPS was in those years and Im too lazy to look them up.
JeterRodriguezSheff
01-09-06, 01:34 PM
OK im using Vorp because is factors in a players position.(and i was at baseball prospectus already)
2005: He ranked 12th
2004:14th
2003:28th
2002:20th
2001:54th
So he has been a very good player but not top 10, and again this factors in that he plays SS.
dmsimon15
01-09-06, 03:38 PM
The Yankees could possibly fill every position in the infield in 2006 at the All Star game in Pittsburgh. Cano and Jeter turned out to be an effective duo in turning double plays late in the season. But, Cano does need to step it up at second. If you can't field easy ground balls, who cares about what kind of range you have.
ryanthe13th
01-09-06, 06:25 PM
The only thing I am worried about with Cano is his defense, as many people have mentioned. Too many times, he made a ridiculously easy play turn into an error. Notables that come to mind is his thrown away ball in TB, that routine pop up that he just didn't catch vs Texas I believe, and I think he threw another ball away against Oakland that cost us the game.
His bat is solid, but I got a little tired of the comparisons that sports casters were making to Rod Carew. Don't you think it is a little premature to be comparing a rookie to Carew?
homer2931
01-09-06, 08:16 PM
My biggest worry is that his minor league line was .277/.330/.458, and that prOPS (which does have its flaws) has him at .280/.303/.416, and that predicts stats better than the actual stats do.
I think he's likely to have a sophmore slump in 06.
pedromartinezfan
01-10-06, 09:35 AM
So he has been a very good player but not top 10, and again this factors in that he plays SS.But it doesn't factor in the quality of defense he plays at SS.
Miguel Tejada has 21.3 WARP3 the past two years. The short list of player than accompany him with 20 WARP:
Todd Helton (21.8)
Alex Rodriguez (21.6)
Albert Pujols (21.3)
Jim Edmonds (21.2)
Johan Santana (20.3)
If you can find anyone else, be my guest, but that's all I could come up with.
JeterRodriguezSheff
01-10-06, 03:56 PM
But it doesn't factor in the quality of defense he plays at SS.
Miguel Tejada has 21.3 WARP3 the past two years. The short list of player than accompany him with 20 WARP:
Todd Helton (21.8)
Alex Rodriguez (21.6)
Albert Pujols (21.3)
Jim Edmonds (21.2)
Johan Santana (20.3)
If you can find anyone else, be my guest, but that's all I could come up with.
fair enough. I just used Vorp because it was the easiest stat for me to access that factored in position.
Wolf In Pinstripes
01-10-06, 05:10 PM
Not sure if anybody's mentioned this yet, but I can personally say that Cano's emergence last year took a lot of the sting of losing Soriano away for me. We aren't likely to see the power numbers or SB's that Sori produced, but a young guy that can flirt with .300 in a rookie year where nobody expected anything out of him to begin with ... damn, that's not too shabby. I'll be watching Cano very closely this year to see how he follows up his '05 maiden voyage.
Dr. Gonzo
01-10-06, 05:33 PM
My biggest worry is that his minor league line was .277/.330/.458, and that prOPS (which does have its flaws) has him at .280/.303/.416, and that predicts stats better than the actual stats do.
I think he's likely to have a sophmore slump in 06.
I agree, he will have to make adjustments.
JavyVazquezIsSick
01-10-06, 11:15 PM
Not sure if anybody's mentioned this yet, but I can personally say that Cano's emergence last year took a lot of the sting of losing Soriano away for me. We aren't likely to see the power numbers or SB's that Sori produced, but a young guy that can flirt with .300 in a rookie year where nobody expected anything out of him to begin with ... damn, that's not too shabby. I'll be watching Cano very closely this year to see how he follows up his '05 maiden voyage.
Actually Cano put up better power numbers (SLG) in his first "full year" with the Yankees than Soriano did. (.432 vs. .458), as well as being 3 years younger at the same period. The thing is Soriano's SLG exploded his sophmore season to .547 but has never been as high since...
Not sure if anybody's mentioned this yet, but I can personally say that Cano's emergence last year took a lot of the sting of losing Soriano away for me. We aren't likely to see the power numbers or SB's that Sori produced, but a young guy that can flirt with .300 in a rookie year where nobody expected anything out of him to begin with ... damn, that's not too shabby. I'll be watching Cano very closely this year to see how he follows up his '05 maiden voyage.
I think Cano is more likely to be flirting with the .300 mark, while Sori, who always took wild swings at the low, outside stuff, is more in the .280 renge. Also, Cano will never steal the 30+ that Sori did, nor deliver close to 40 HRs, but he will hit a lot better on the road then Sori does (his contrast of Arlington vs. road is startling!!). Also, Robbie should get to the 20 HR mark, and stay there on a consistent basis. Remember, he was considered for a position change, as there was thought he would grow to big for 2B. So the power potential is there.
He will also be a better fielder then Sori, who never seemed to improve there. We will be fine with Robbie.
YankeeStripes
01-11-06, 12:33 PM
Cano reminds me of a young John Olerude (sp?)
Smooth swing. Drives the ball to all fields. Wont hit a lot of home runs cause his swing is so level. When he does hit homeruns, they are hit with a lot of topspin.
Johnny was a .320 20 80-90 guy. that would be excellent for Cano and the Yankees
jimmykey2
01-11-06, 12:42 PM
My biggest worry is that his minor league line was .277/.330/.458, and that prOPS (which does have its flaws) has him at .280/.303/.416, and that predicts stats better than the actual stats do.
I think he's likely to have a sophmore slump in 06.
What is that based on? I'd like to think a player who had the AL's 2nd highest BA in September and hit decently in the postseason shows no reason to expect a decline in his 2006 production.
Not sure if anybody's mentioned this yet, but I can personally say that Cano's emergence last year took a lot of the sting of losing Soriano away for me. We aren't likely to see the power numbers or SB's that Sori produced, but a young guy that can flirt with .300 in a rookie year where nobody expected anything out of him to begin with ... damn, that's not too shabby. I'll be watching Cano very closely this year to see how he follows up his '05 maiden voyage.
I think A-Rod's 48 home runs took the sting out of losing Soriano more then Cano. But I think Cano can be a more complete player then Soriano. I don't think he will ever take the ball the other way much because he is left handed.
People were stung when we lost Soriano?
I think with Cano, you really need to accept what you see with your eyes as opposed to evaluating through numbers. Looking at the minor league numbers of a guy who was either young or relatively young for his league in almost every year of his short professional career, you need to look at his skill set. Projecting major league numbers out of what a 19-year old kid did in low A, or a 20-year old in AA, is certainly wrought with fault. Fact is, he more than held his own at each stop along the way, and has always been on the radar as a potentially very effective hitter.
He certainly needs to adjust- the main part being that he needs to improve his selection. I don't think he'll ever walk 75 times in a season, but simply picking the pitches he swings at during an at bat will help greatly.
A rookie 2B who drives the ball with authority to the opposite field is rare. It gives Cano an advantage in that he's not Soriano- there is no one way to pitch to him that will consistently get him out. He'll pull the inside pitch and drive the outside one to the gap in left center. Mattingly was the same type of hitter- more power than his body should have allowed, wasn't terribly patient, but hit the ball to all fields and with authority. Now, I am not saying Cano is Mattingly- but there are similarities in their styles.
I think Cano is going to develop into a consistently above average offensive player. Defensively, I see the skill set to be average to slightly above- but he needs to harness that with a dedication to his defense. His pivot is extremely quick already- possibly the quickest since Pat Kelly 10 years ago (Knoblauch for a smidge before his yips). But he is often lazy in the field- doesn't take the time to get into the correct position with his body or his glove, and air mails throws due to lack of after-the-play footwork.
18 - Rookie Ball
19 - Low A
20 - High A
21 - AA
22 - AAA
are expected ages for hitters per level. Cano spent parts of seasons a year young for his league, but the majority of each at the proper level. Regardless, guys like Benson and Blengino have long show that you can adjust minor league statistical analysis for age and come up with an accurate understanding of future potential.
freebubba
01-12-06, 08:38 AM
No question he was the highlight of the 2005 season for the Yanks (sorry A-Rod). Defensively, I think going into spring training with Jeter and A-Rod and seeing those guys work will be a tremendous experience for him. As far as hitting goes, we'll see how he progresses under the tutelage of Mattingly. A bit of a sophmore slump would not completely surprise me, but only in terms of BA. As someone else mentioned, for an impatient rookie, he did not strike out very much. That could be the most promising sign, IMO.
18 - Rookie Ball
19 - Low A
20 - High A
21 - AA
22 - AAA
are expected ages for hitters per level. Cano spent parts of seasons a year young for his league, but the majority of each at the proper level. Regardless, guys like Benson and Blengino have long show that you can adjust minor league statistical analysis for age and come up with an accurate understanding of future potential.
He didn't spend a lot of time at any level, and he improved greatly as he remained at a level. His stats at each level split in half from the first part to the second part of his tenure (I believe not counting AAA) were stark.
I absolutely agree that you can glean valuable information from minor league statistics- but in certain instances you do need to look past the numbers. I was fortunate enough to see Mattingly's actual internal scouting reports back in the early 80's, and have one of them framed and signed- it says that Mattingly should develop into a 25+ power hitter at the majors and in YS. There is a craft to scouting, and there are a bunch of players who you cannot evaluate solely on statistics. Cano's numbers are just those type- pretty good advancement for a prospect, always adjusting well to each level but never breaking out. The fact he broke out at a still very young age in the majors is not necessarily surprising for a talented hitter. In fact, had he put up very similar numbers at Columbus this year, I would bet many stat-driven people would think more highly of him, as they'd project numbers up to the majors as opposed to looking at his '05 year as a bit of a fluke.
Kiwiwriter
01-12-06, 04:03 PM
I think Robinson Cano has to do two things in 2006:
1. Avoid getting "gay," as Rich Gossage said in his book.
2. Tighten up his defense on the routine plays.
The first point is not a reference to the subject of the movie "Brokeback Mountain," but actually Goose referring to players who would get overly nonchalant and self-satisfied with their level of play, and would lose concentration. In the old days, it was called the "sophomore slump." He can't look back...he's got to keep pushing forward.
The second is pretty obvious...he was good in critical moments, but he seemed to lose that critical concentration on the routine stuff, which is the bread-and-butter that makes 27 outs. Willie Randolph can't help him any more, but Larry Bowa can. So can Luis Sojo, I guess.
Other than that, I think his future is unlimited, and I got to tell him so when he came to City Hall in Newark to receive an award from the Dominican community. Quiet, respectful guy. I told him he was the best overall second baseman I'd seen since Willie Randolph, and he was kind of embarrassed.
(Soriano fans: I was mostly saying that to give Robinson a boost. Soriano was one heck of a second baseman. But Alfonso never saw a pitch he didn't swing at. I think Cano has better bat control.)
surge511
01-12-06, 07:58 PM
How's Cano's english, does anyone know?
I think his potential is unlimited, and the next 2 years will tell whether we have the real deal, or if CJ Henry should consider moving to the other side of the bag...
From the looks of it, we have our 2Bman, and hopefully he improves on a very strong rookie showing.
Yankeeah
01-12-06, 08:02 PM
How's Cano's english, does anyone know?
I think his potential is unlimited, and the next 2 years will tell whether we have the real deal, or if CJ Henry should consider moving to the other side of the bag...
From the looks of it, we have our 2Bman, and hopefully he improves on a very strong rookie showing.
He speaks well, but has a thick accent.
homer2931
01-12-06, 08:14 PM
What is that based on? I'd like to think a player who had the AL's 2nd highest BA in September and hit decently in the postseason shows no reason to expect a decline in his 2006 production.
1. prOPS is a better predictor of future AVG/OBP/SLG than actual AVG/OBP/SLG, he outperformed it, so it should fall
2. Last year he set career highs in AVG and SLG, usually that suggests improvement or fluke. i think its a little of both, b/c drastic improvements dont happen very often
1. prOPS is a better predictor of future AVG/OBP/SLG than actual AVG/OBP/SLG, he outperformed it, so it should fall
2. Last year he set career highs in AVG and SLG, usually that suggests improvement or fluke. i think its a little of both, b/c drastic improvements dont happen very often
He has hit at all lebels, and at his age, you can't say that a career high is a fluke. Not in the least.
He can hit, will continue to hit, and be a solid player here for a long time.
NJASDJDH
01-13-06, 09:44 AM
1. prOPS is a better predictor of future AVG/OBP/SLG than actual AVG/OBP/SLG, he outperformed it, so it should fall
2. Last year he set career highs in AVG and SLG, usually that suggests improvement or fluke. i think its a little of both, b/c drastic improvements dont happen very often
To answer the question that was posed to you, prOPS is based on batted ball types and average outcomes of those types. Basically, based on the number of line drives, fly balls, ground balls, etc. that Cano hit, his line should have been XYZ. Of course, prOPS isn't perfect and there are some hitters who will consistently underperform or overperform their prOPS as I don't think it is speed adjusted (one example of something that can throw these projections off). Additionally, it's almost false to just make the statement that "drastic improvements don't happen very often" without acknowledging that Cano is at the point in his career where drastic improvements are more common and real.
BJG, the ages you gave when talking about minor league levels would be ideal ages for players who are prospects, not for the average minor leaguer or average player, which is what your post made it seem like you were saying to me.
When looking at Cano's career minor league statistics it is important to break it down further in order to see why last year makes sense. If you separate Cano's minor league career into lower minors (A+ and below) and upper minors (AA and above) you will see that Cano made marked improvements upon graduating to the upper levels of the minor league system and his ML production doesn't come as as much of a surprise. As I have been saying for quite some time now, Cano HAS in fact been a very good hitter (all things considered) since the beginning of the 2004 season, so we're now at about 2 years of data, is that enough? I'm not saying he's going to hit as well as he did last year, but I am saying I think that about 1000 ABs should be enough for people to stop commenting on his performance as heavily flukey.
The last point I would like to make is that if you look even more closely at Cano's minor league track record, the only year you can really find fault in, I believe, is '03 when he played in the FSL, which is an extremely tough environment hit in.
How's Cano's english, does anyone know?I watched one post game interview with him. I laughed for a week.
BJG, the ages you gave when talking about minor league levels would be ideal ages for players who are prospects, not for the average minor leaguer or average player, which is what your post made it seem like you were saying to me.
Sorry, that's what I meant.
I don't think Cano's performance was at all flukey last year, I just question the consistent ceiling that many here are talking about for a guy who is so BA dependant.
SINCE77 2
01-13-06, 11:45 AM
Sorry, that's what I meant.
I don't think Cano's performance was at all flukey last year, I just question the consistent ceiling that many here are talking about for a guy who is so BA dependant.
Why do we question players who are BA dependant? Rod Carew was BA dependant. Tony Gwynn was BA dependant whose high walk total was 82 back in '87 IIRC. Why do we knock players who can hit and don't rely on walks to float their average or OBP? What is wrong with being a good hitter who takes what the pitchers give and utilize the whole field? I just don't get this forums aversion to such players. I don't believe that I or anyone who feels like I do should have to tolerate a low BA or high SO rates for the sake of OBP. I like Cano as is. A guy who will take what the pitcher gives him and drive it to all fields. The only problem that I see him encountering is if he starts to think of himself as a homerun hitter and proceeds to lift/pull everything like Posada now does. If Cano remains a gap to gap hitter, then the skys the limit.
Mr. Mxylsplk
01-13-06, 12:28 PM
Why do we question players who are BA dependant? Rod Carew was BA dependant. Tony Gwynn was BA dependant whose high walk total was 82 back in '87 IIRC.
Wow, those are particularly relevant comparisons. (BTW, you don't seem to know much about Rod Carew).
I doubt anyone would question Cano if he can become a .340 hitter. But reaching base as rarely as Cano did last year isn't very good, even though he did hit quite well. A guy with a .320 obp uses up an awful lot of outs. If you hit as well as a guy like Gwynn does, not adding too many walks on top of it (and Gwynn still had an obp 50 pts about his career average, as opposed to 20 pts for Cano last year), you're getting on base at a pretty decent clip as is. But if you don't hit that well, you're not. If Cano develops into that kind of hitter, he'll be awfully good walks or not. But the odds of him becoming that good are awfully small. And if he doesn't, without walking his offensive value will be limited.
ChewieTobbacca
01-13-06, 12:59 PM
Rod Carew batted .328 with a obp of .393 in his career which is very good
Tony Gwynn batted .338 with an obp of .388 in his career which is very good.. not to mention being #20th all time in BA (which is amazing in this era) and 7 batting titles...
To ask for Cano to be anywhere near these players abilities is asking a lot but to be near would still be good
SINCE77 2
01-13-06, 01:03 PM
Wow, those are particularly relevant comparisons. (BTW, you don't seem to know much about Rod Carew).
I doubt anyone would question Cano if he can become a .340 hitter. But reaching base as rarely as Cano did last year isn't very good, even though he did hit quite well. A guy with a .320 obp uses up an awful lot of outs. If you hit as well as a guy like Gwynn does, not adding too many walks on top of it (and Gwynn still had an obp 50 pts about his career average, as opposed to 20 pts for Cano last year), you're getting on base at a pretty decent clip as is. But if you don't hit that well, you're not. If Cano develops into that kind of hitter, he'll be awfully good walks or not. But the odds of him becoming that good are awfully small. And if he doesn't, without walking his offensive value will be limited.
First off, what don't I know about Rod Carew? He averaged about 45-50 walks per season, hit lots of singles, doubles and a few triples and didn't strikeout much. His numbers tell the whole story. Same with Gwynn. Neither hit many homers and both utilized the whole field. Am I missing something?
Cano is 22yo. If he stays with the same stroke throughout his career I don't see any reason for him to not to be able to maintain a solid OBP as well as a high average. My point is that we shouldn't automatically dismiss Cano out of hand because his OBP is at .320 at the time. What would many members on these boards have thought of Gwynn in his first few years in the majors? Would they have called him a player with limited offensive upside because he didn't walk much? Another player lacking pop while being too dependant upon BA and dismissed him. Same with Carew? I for one consider Cano's approach a breath of fresh air amidst the overabundance of SO/HR/Walk players.
Mr. Mxylsplk
01-13-06, 01:19 PM
First off, what don't I know about Rod Carew? He averaged about 45-50 walks per season, hit lots of singles, doubles and a few triples and didn't strikeout much. His numbers tell the whole story. Same with Gwynn. Neither hit many homers and both utilized the whole field. Am I missing something?
The guy had an obp 70 points above his ba. That's not remotely ba dependent.
Cano is 22yo. If he stays with the same stroke throughout his career I don't see any reason for him to not to be able to maintain a solid OBP as well as a high average. My point is that we shouldn't automatically dismiss Cano out of hand because his OBP is at .320 at the time.
The very post you quoted merely "questioned the consistent ceiling" thrown around for Cano. How you got that as automatically dismissing anything is beyond me.
What would many members on these boards have thought of Gwynn in his first few years in the majors? Would they have called him a player with limited offensive upside because he didn't walk much? Another player lacking pop while being too dependant upon BA and dismissed him. Same with Carew?
Aside from the silliness of your continued comparison to Cano to of two of the best hitters in a long long time, considering that Gwynn put up an obp of .337 in his first partial season and .355 in his second partial season (those two combine to about the same at-bats as Cano's rookie year), and Carew was at .341, I don't think people would have been as concerned about them being ba dependent. More relevantly, the fact that two first-ballot hall of famers were great hitters without walking a tremendous amount is a remarkably foolish reason to argue that walking very rarely does not limit a player's offensive value. Cano may very well improve. Young players often do. But given his great lack of patience as a hitter, it's reasonable to be concerned about how high he can really go. The careers of Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn don't really change that.
Why do we question players who are BA dependant? Rod Carew was BA dependant. Tony Gwynn was BA dependant whose high walk total was 82 back in '87 IIRC. Why do we knock players who can hit and don't rely on walks to float their average or OBP? What is wrong with being a good hitter who takes what the pitchers give and utilize the whole field? I just don't get this forums aversion to such players. I don't believe that I or anyone who feels like I do should have to tolerate a low BA or high SO rates for the sake of OBP. I like Cano as is. A guy who will take what the pitcher gives him and drive it to all fields. The only problem that I see him encountering is if he starts to think of himself as a homerun hitter and proceeds to lift/pull everything like Posada now does. If Cano remains a gap to gap hitter, then the skys the limit.
I know we've already been thorugh this in this thread, but I have no aversion to Tony Gwynn or Rod Carew. If Cano can play until he's 40 and maintain a batting average of .330 or better at 2B for most of his career, he's a hall of famer.
There are a couple of problems, though.
1. I'm not sure how pointing out that Gwynn walked 82 times in 680 plate appearences is an argument that Gwynn didn't walk a lot. That's well, well above average. Cano walked 16 times in 551 plate appearences this year. He did walk a passable amount in rookie ball, but the rest of his minor league career doesn't give any indication that he's going to be good at this. He will get better, but when you are starting from such a low baseline, better is still likely to be bad. Carew actually walked at an above average rate for his career.
Basically, it's true to say that Gwynn and Carew could be succesful without walking 100 times a year, but there really isn't a lot of evidence that Cano is like Gwynn or Carew. At the same point in their careers, it looked to me like Carew and Gwynn would both hit for a higher average and walk more than Cano.
2. Even for the best hitters, batting average fluctuates from year to year. This is the main point. It has nothing to do with Cano trying to hit for more power or striking out more or hitting for a lower average or anything like that. It has to do with how batting average changes from year to year and what effect that has on your numbers when such a large percentage of the performance is tied into batting average.
Look at Gwynn's and Carew's careers. There are year to year fluctuations of over 50 points in batting average. This is what happens in baseball. The difference between Cano's batting average last year and a .280 average is 10 hits. That's it. 10 hits over 522 AB. If Cano hits .280, he's a bad player...same k rate, same Iso, etc. It doesn't take much for that 20 point swing, and the margin for error is just much smaller than if he walked more but was otherwise the exact same player because he doesn't have the cushion that the walks are providing.
Within that context, Cano is quite capable of having a very good year, but he's also quite capable of having a bad year.
3. As good a hitter as Gwynn was, his best season ever isn't even close to being one of the best single seasons in major league history. The guy hit .394, but his 169 OPS+ is miles out of the top 100 (which ends with a tie at 190). It's not top 100 in OBP either, so it isn't just about the power. These are the things that correlate to run scoring, and that's the point of offense. Gwynn was a corner outfielder, so there really shouldn't be any positional issues when comparing him to all-time best seasons. In other words, .350/.450/.550 is better than .350/.400/.550.
This is not an argument that Cano won't be a solid major league player. All I'm saying is that some of the projections of his future are pie in the sky when you consider both the likely fluctuations in his production year to year and the likely cap on his peak. A mix of good, average, and even below average years is probably likely.
38Special
01-13-06, 01:29 PM
Cano 05: .297/.320/.458 - 34 doubles, 4 triples, 14 HR - 16 BB in 522 AB (Age 22)
Carew 67: .292/.341/.409 - 22 doubles, 7 triples, 8 HR - 37 BB in 514 AB (Age 21)
Carew 68: .273/.312/.347 - 27 doubles, 2 triples, 1 HR - 26 BB in 461 AB (Age 22)
Carew 69: .332/.386/.467 - 30 doubles, 4 triples, 8 HR - 37 BB in 458 AB (Age 23)
The main difference between the two is power and walk rates. Carew was able to increase his during his career, but he also started with a better rate in his early years.
Cano 05: .297/.320/.458 - 34 doubles, 4 triples, 14 HR - 16 BB in 522 AB (Age 22)
Carew 67: .292/.341/.409 - 22 doubles, 7 triples, 8 HR - 37 BB in 514 AB (Age 21)
Carew 68: .273/.312/.347 - 27 doubles, 2 triples, 1 HR - 26 BB in 461 AB (Age 22)
Carew 69: .332/.386/.467 - 30 doubles, 4 triples, 8 HR - 37 BB in 458 AB (Age 23)
The main difference between the two is power and walk rates. Carew was able to increase his during his career, but he also started with a better rate in his early years.
Carew was also a better hitter for average in the minors. I don' have his minor league walk rates. You also have to look at the era.
JeterRodriguezSheff
01-13-06, 01:51 PM
Why do we question players who are BA dependant? Rod Carew was BA dependant. Tony Gwynn was BA dependant whose high walk total was 82 back in '87 IIRC. Why do we knock players who can hit and don't rely on walks to float their average or OBP? What is wrong with being a good hitter who takes what the pitchers give and utilize the whole field? I just don't get this forums aversion to such players. I don't believe that I or anyone who feels like I do should have to tolerate a low BA or high SO rates for the sake of OBP. I like Cano as is. A guy who will take what the pitcher gives him and drive it to all fields. The only problem that I see him encountering is if he starts to think of himself as a homerun hitter and proceeds to lift/pull everything like Posada now does. If Cano remains a gap to gap hitter, then the skys the limit.
Getting On base is the goal and a walk is just as good as a hit, so why not look at OBP which factors both? If you are worried about a player only getting walks and one bag that is what slugging is for, thus OPS is created.
homer2931
01-13-06, 01:58 PM
To answer the question that was posed to you, prOPS is based on batted ball types and average outcomes of those types. Basically, based on the number of line drives, fly balls, ground balls, etc. that Cano hit, his line should have been XYZ. Of course, prOPS isn't perfect and there are some hitters who will consistently underperform or overperform their prOPS as I don't think it is speed adjusted (one example of something that can throw these projections off). Additionally, it's almost false to just make the statement that "drastic improvements don't happen very often" without acknowledging that Cano is at the point in his career where drastic improvements are more common and real.
BJG, the ages you gave when talking about minor league levels would be ideal ages for players who are prospects, not for the average minor leaguer or average player, which is what your post made it seem like you were saying to me.
When looking at Cano's career minor league statistics it is important to break it down further in order to see why last year makes sense. If you separate Cano's minor league career into lower minors (A+ and below) and upper minors (AA and above) you will see that Cano made marked improvements upon graduating to the upper levels of the minor league system and his ML production doesn't come as as much of a surprise. As I have been saying for quite some time now, Cano HAS in fact been a very good hitter (all things considered) since the beginning of the 2004 season, so we're now at about 2 years of data, is that enough? I'm not saying he's going to hit as well as he did last year, but I am saying I think that about 1000 ABs should be enough for people to stop commenting on his performance as heavily flukey.
The last point I would like to make is that if you look even more closely at Cano's minor league track record, the only year you can really find fault in, I believe, is '03 when he played in the FSL, which is an extremely tough environment hit in.
An adjustment is made for speed, too.
And while last year may have been absed on all skill, his prOPS is really in line with his minor league numbers
I'm not saying its a guarantee, but I dont buy that hes a future superstar either
JeterRodriguezSheff
01-13-06, 02:03 PM
But it can it take into account how hard the ball was hit? If it cant than it counts a weak grounder that was hit in the right place and a scorched off the bat grounder the same right? Then it also counts a weak liner the same as a hard liner. Unless im missing something.
NJASDJDH
01-13-06, 02:34 PM
Why do we question players who are BA dependant? Rod Carew was BA dependant. Tony Gwynn was BA dependant whose high walk total was 82 back in '87 IIRC. Why do we knock players who can hit and don't rely on walks to float their average or OBP? What is wrong with being a good hitter who takes what the pitchers give and utilize the whole field? I just don't get this forums aversion to such players. I don't believe that I or anyone who feels like I do should have to tolerate a low BA or high SO rates for the sake of OBP. I like Cano as is. A guy who will take what the pitcher gives him and drive it to all fields. The only problem that I see him encountering is if he starts to think of himself as a homerun hitter and proceeds to lift/pull everything like Posada now does. If Cano remains a gap to gap hitter, then the skys the limit.
I might have been beat to this, but the reason you'd rather have a player who's less BA dependent is that moreso than other stats, BA has a low year to year correlation meaning that random swings that have nothing to do with the quality of the hitter can alter the hitter's value. Things such as walks and HRs are much more consistent from year to year and so you don't have to worry about it. Basically, since BA is built up off of putting the ball in play, the defense you're facing plays a role in how your BA appears.
NJASDJDH
01-13-06, 02:41 PM
An adjustment is made for speed, too.
And while last year may have been absed on all skill, his prOPS is really in line with his minor league numbers
I'm not saying its a guarantee, but I dont buy that hes a future superstar either
I wasn't sure about the speed adjustment, thanks. IIRC, Cano's MLEs are more in line with what he did this past season than with his prOPS, for what it's worth. I don't think he projects as a future star, but I do think he can be a very good player who makes an All Star game or two.
jimmykey2
01-13-06, 03:28 PM
I think it's safe to say we haven't seen how good he can be. We must remember Cano played almost EVERYDAY after he was called up to the majors and was never given off days against tough/any lefties. That lack of rest might explain the poor August he had, which other than his first 3 weeks in the bigs, were easily his worst weeks of his season. I also feel good about his ability to make contact, considering he doesn't add a high number of strikeouts to his low BB total. I don't worry so much about his OBP since it was dragged down by 7 poors weeks and Cano really isn't going to be a leadoff or #2 hitter.
ChewieTobbacca
01-14-06, 12:46 AM
And that's why walks are important.. a player who takes lots of walks can have 7 bad weeks and still get on base because walk rates are a lot more consistent.. a player which relies on BA will suffer in getting on base should he reach a slump
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