View Full Version : Food for Thought
This is from the Baseball Prospectus website:
Alfonso Soriano has gotten a lot of attention for his play, and Tino Martinez has managed to be adequate so far, but the Yankees could do themselves a huge favor by simply trading left sides of the infield with Triple-A Columbus.
Alfonso Soriano .291 OBP .406 SLG
D'Angelo Jimenez .350 OBP .380 SLG
Tino Martinez .360 OBP .481 SLG
Nick Johnson .451 OBP .571 SLG
Soriano's BA has slipped to .284, dragging his nearly-walk-free OBP with it. It's nearly impossible to help your team if your OBP is under .300.
Jimenez and Johnson are the only real position-player prospects the Yankees have above A-ball, although a healthy Drew Henson would change that. Juan Rivera is hammering the Eastern League for Norwich, but with just six walks in 165 plate appearances, skepticism is warranted.
Isn't there a Major-Minor factor here to consider???????
KENMonteSS86
05-17-01, 04:35 PM
Originally posted by CarolR
Isn't there a Major-Minor factor here to consider???????
Thank You!!!!
ElDuque, let's not get into this all over again.... :rolleyes:
i want johnson in the majors.. i don't care what position or who gets benched.. it's a waste to have him in the minors
Originally posted by CarolR
Isn't there a Major-Minor factor here to consider???????
Not that big between AAA and the Majors. Basically, half of the players in AAA are prospects and the other half are rehabbing major leaguers or major leaguers who don't fit on the 25-man roster. Look at Albert Pujols in St. Louis. Last year he was at Single A. He's now leading the Cards in about every offensive category.
KENMonteSS86
05-17-01, 04:45 PM
Originally posted by ElDuque110
Not that big between AAA and the Majors. Basically, half of the players in AAA are prospects and the other half are rehabbing major leaguers or major leaguers who don't fit on the 25-man roster.
You telling me every player in AAA is going to make the majors, they just have to wait for an opening on the major league squad???
If you believe that, I've got a bridge I'd like to sell to you...
I'm really getting tired of all of this....and not just from you, ElDuque. If only if it was that easy.....
Mr. Mxylsplk
05-17-01, 04:46 PM
ElDuque110, Randy Keisler sure agrees with you.
Once again, this isn't my opinion. This is the opinion of people who write books on this stuff.
But for my 2 cents, Johnson has a 1022 OPS. Tino has a 841 OPS. I'm not saying we should dump Tino, and let's assume Johnson doesn't do as well in the Majors as AAA. Still, he would have to have a 181 point drop in OPS to reach where Tino is now. And seeing that Johnson's best trait is his batting eye, and you don't lose your ability to take walks, I'd doubt that'd happen. I'd rather see Tino and Johnson split DH/1B duties, and have Justice play the outfield.
As for the difference between the Majors and AAA, if there wasn't some chance of them making the Majors, they wouldn't be in AAA.
ElDuque110, Robert Perez led the IL in virtually every offensive stat this year. What has he done with the Yankees? My point is, who says these guys will perform here?
Nick Johnson and D'Angelo Jimenez both missed the ENTIRE SEASON last year. That was an important season for them both. There is no way they are ready for the Majors.
Why don't you find us a new SS, DH, CF, and C - the positions where our REAL offensive weaknesses are, not the ones that Baseball Prospectus says they are.
-jim
BTW, since this thread is predominantly about Nick Johnson and Jimenez, I'm moving this to the Minors forum.
-jim
KENMonteSS86
05-17-01, 04:57 PM
Originally posted by Jim F.
ElDuque110, why don't you find us a new SS, DH, CF, and C - the positions where our REAL offensive weaknesses are, not the ones that Baseball Prospectus says they are.
-jim
THANK YOU!!!!!
Originally posted by Jim F.
ElDuque110, Robert Perez led the IL in virtually every offensive stat this year. What has he done with the Yankees? My point is, who says these guys will perform here?
Why don't you find us a new SS, DH, CF, and C - the positions where our REAL offensive weaknesses are, not the ones that Baseball Prospectus says they are.
-jim
First off, 6 or 7 ABs does not make a career. Perez is a 32-year old washed up prospect from the Blue Jays system who didn't play good defense and didn't draw many walks.
The Yankees get above-average production from SS, CF, and C, even if they're struggling at the moment, and Jeter looks like he's heating up every day. And I think Soriano is a REAL offensive weakness.
ElDuque110:
I think Soriano is a young player with a high ceiling along with high risks. But look at our current lineup and pretty thin farm system (position players at high minors), I am all for keeping young players. And I really want to beg that Torre and Denbo force Soriano to be selective at plate. Without the discipline, he will never reach his offensive potential. The result will be harm done to the team and the player himself in the long-run.
On Nick Johnson:
1) Judging Perez by his 100 or so ABs in Columbus is not a good measure, because Perez is a 32-year-old minor league veteran with extensive MLB experience. Perez doesn't walk (.333 BA / only .355 OBP). In contrast, Johnson currently is among HR leaders (#3 with 8, tied with Perez at 7 when Perez was called up) is in his first season above AA. The words are that Johnson is not near his power potential yet. He was merely a 20-year-old (the third youngest in the Eastern League), when he stunned baseball two years ago -- winning EL batting title, leading the entire minor in BB and posting the best OBP of all of baseball in a DECADE.
2) He has an uncanny ability to get on base: by walks, by HBP and by base hits. After missing a whole season and playing in AAA for the first time, he again led his league in OBP (.451). OBP is a better indicator of a more mature, intelligent and skilled hitter than other "tools". We can say that Soriano has great tools and potentials, while Johnson is already skilled at the plate. Like Pujols of Cardinals, Johnson is aggressive (attacking/hacking the ball), but knows when to be aggressive and what pitch to hack.
3) The most impressive thing about Johnson is his ability to adjust to higher level of pitchings. If you look at his numbers, although he played in a tougher league every year, he never suffered any setback (other than that freak injury). Instead, he posted better numbers in every new league. Everyone wants to see how he does after the wrist injury (which can really hinders hitting ability), he is truly among IL leaders in every offensive category: top 10 BA , #1 OBP, #3 SLG and #3 HR. Remember, Johnson never played AAA before, suffered lost a whole season and very young (22) for AAA. Another thing is that some ML pitchers jumped from AA ball as well and a fair number of pitchers shouldn't be in the majors to begin with.
4) There IS a breed of players that is special (handle regular MLB jobs at an outstanding level at very young ages). Griffey, A-Rod, I-Rod and Jeter come to mind. And Pujols never played above SINGLE A, but right now is charging for NL triple crowns. Those are lottery talents, even among gifted athletes. Is Johnson one of them? We don't know yet. So far, Johnson hasn't shown evidence that indicates otherwise. If he doesn't get a chance to play at the MLB level, we will never find out. However, in light of the fact that Tino is playing well and Johnson does need every AB he can get, I am not against leaving Johnson at AAA for now. If the offense' struggle continues or Knoblauch/Justice/O'Neill has injuries, I'm all for calling up Johnson and letting him get his ABs in the Major League.
patrick.o
05-17-01, 10:10 PM
That was a damn fine post, KDream. I especially agree with the last part about not bringing Johnson up unless he's going to be getting ABs. And since Tino is performing well and you don't really want to get a rookie's feet wet by putting him in the DH spot for a long period of time (and sitting Justice surely won't help him get out of his slump), Columbus it is.
Frankly, since we know that regardless of last season Tino has the ability to perform at a high level here, and we don't know that about Johnson yet, I would prefer that Tino continues to play well enough to hold Johnson back until September. Then I hope Johnson performs well enough during his call up that the Yankees don't have to be wishy-washy about deciding what to do at first base next year.
Elfdood
05-18-01, 04:48 PM
Forget Tino. If neither Knoblauch (.743 OPS) or Justice (.726) picks it up, keep one of them in the outfield full time instead of splitting the DH and call up Johnson. His OPS would have to drop even more - almost 300 points - to not be better than those guys. If you don't think he should DH, put Tino at DH. It would be a slight defensive hit, but a big offensive upgrade.
And Jim, you're forgetting a couple of things - 1) <b>Perez was not leading the International League in ANY offensive category</b> and 2) he's hitting .364 through three games anyway.
Just a further addendum to the question over whether there's a huge difference between AAA and the Majors. I had said before that I didn't think the gap between AAA and the Bigs was as large as that between Double-A and Triple-A. So, I checked over at Baseball America. Turns out I was wrong. Here's what they said:
"The toughest jump is going from Class A to Double-A, and that going from Triple-A to the majors is not as big as a jump."
Originally posted by Mr. Mxylsplk
ElDuque110, Randy Keisler sure agrees with you.
HMMMMMM SO I WONDER WHEN YOU TALKED TO RANDY TO FIND OUT HIS OPINION? FACT IS HE WILL TELL YOU THAT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAJORS AND AAA IS AS DIFFERENT AS NIGHT AND DAY!!! &po'd&
AND WHO ARE THE EXPERTS WRITING FOR BASEBALL AMERICA? HAVE THEY SUCCESSFULLY MADE THE TRANSITION BETWEEN MINORS AND MAJORS? DO THEY EVEN KNOW WHAT THE HELL THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT OR IS IT JUST THEIR OPINION ? JUST LIKE YOUR OPINION..
AND MINE....IT COULD BE WRONG :mad: ;)
Originally posted by winka
AND WHO ARE THE EXPERTS WRITING FOR BASEBALL AMERICA?
They're mostly a collection of scouts and analysts who write books and magazines full of this stuff. You should visit their website, www.baseballamerica.com, it's a great resource on the minor leagues.
madforyanks
05-20-01, 08:12 AM
In case you've missed it, ElDuque110, winka says he knows Randy K. In fact I think he says he coached him, correct? Therefore, I'd pay attention to what he has to say.
Also, Randy's comments about having nothing more to learn in Triple A were (1) made in anger and (2) part of plea to stay in the majors. He was not saying there was no jump. He was saying that the only way he could learn what he needed to make the jump was to stay in the Show and that bridging the gap couldn't occur in Triple A. That's very different from saying the jump isn't significant!
Just to clarify, I wasn't criticizing Randy Keisler at all. I think he's got a great future as a major league starter. My point was more to those who were saying Nick Johnson or D'Angelo Jimenez couldn't duplicate their success at AAA in the Majors.
Interesting thing about Pujols is that the only reason he got his chance is because McGuire was and still is injured.
Do you think he would have been given the 1st baseman's job if not for that. He's made the best of his chance, one he would have never gotten if not for Big Mac's fate.
St. Louis had no idea he would do so well, THEY WERE FORCED TO FIND OUT!
They hoped for the best. If Tino were hurt do you think Nick would be brought up then?
Or would Posada play 1st base and have Oliver take over at catcher and let Clay be back-up. Sojo plays 1st base. Is it impossible to have a different solution for an injuried Tino? Whatever it may be.
Seriously, you have a right to your opinion, but I like the way Yankee management is handling Nick.
He's been hurt the last week. He was hurt all last year. Meanwhile Tino keeps rolling along.
If Nick were called up now,
we all think we now how Nick would do in the big show, but in reality all we could do is hope for the best. Believe me I would!
Elfdood
05-23-01, 05:01 PM
Originally posted by mr.roy
Interesting thing about Pujols is that the only reason he got his chance is because McGuire was and still is injured.
Do you think he would have been given the 1st baseman's job if not for that. He's made the best of his chance, one he would have never gotten if not for Big Mac's fate.
St. Louis had no idea he would do so well, THEY WERE FORCED TO FIND OUT!
They hoped for the best. If Tino were hurt do you think Nick would be brought up then?Pujols has actually played more games at third than anywhere else last year. It's his main position. Most people thought the Cardinals were crazy for trading Tatis in the offseason, but obviously they were right about Pujols (although they probably could've gotten more than they did for Tatis).
If Tino got hurt for any extended period of time, the Yankees would DEFINITELY call up Johnson. One could make an argument that Nick Johnson wouldn't hit as well as Tino, but not that he wouldn't hit better than Sojo or Oliver. He's been a better hitter than those guys since his '98 season in middle A.
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