View Full Version : Enrique Wilson rulez: Da smrt peopel's thread for SP
Irony Of It All
11-10-04, 04:03 PM
Stop ignoring this thread.
WiffleWOOD
11-10-04, 04:48 PM
damn. just when i was going to post my version of this thread. you posted this without any text just to stick it to me, didn't you kyle?
damn you!!!
Irony Of It All
11-10-04, 04:51 PM
Originally posted by WiffleWOOD
damn. just when i was going to post my version of this thread. you posted this without any text just to stick it to me, didn't you kyle?
damn you!!!
C'mon Dan, you know me better than that. :lol:
No I accidentally hit "submit reply" instead of "preview post" and it won't let me delete it.
NJASDJDH
11-10-04, 04:53 PM
I don't think the Yankees should pursue any pitchers this offseason.
WiffleWOOD
11-10-04, 05:10 PM
Originally posted by NJASDJDH
I don't think the Yankees should pursue any pitchers this offseason.
i'm assuming you mean re-sign lieber, though?
and you don't want to see them go after Radke?
Irony Of It All
11-10-04, 05:32 PM
Looking ahead to this year's hot stove season, there are two things that appear certain: One, the Yankees will almost undoubtedly have a new CF - almost certainly Carlos Beltran. And two, the Yankees will sign/trade for some pitching. This specific thread will deal only with SP, so no RP will be examined at the time, though, there may be 1 starter listed that I think will/should be in the bullpen next year.
Also, I'm not listing Milton because if you're reading this thread, chances are you already know he sucks. No need to keep bringing it up. And I'm not listing Randy Johnson, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, or Barry Zito either. One, because I have yet to hear one plausible trade scenario. And two, because the thought of what we would supposedly be giving up sickens me.
Now on to the stats.
2004 Stats:
Name Age Salary VORP IP RA K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 LD% G/F IF/FLY DER FIP DERA
Matt Clement 30 6.00 36.9 181.0 3.93 9.4 3.8 2.47 0.7 .165 1.55 .155 .721 4.10 3.73
Orlando Hernandez 39 0.50* 27.6 84.7 3.30 8.9 3.8 2.34 1.0 .205 0.80 .165 .716 4.14 2.90
Jon Lieber 34 2.45* 27.3 176.7 4.84 5.2 0.9 5.78 1.0 .178 1.43 .082 .677 3.94 4.30
Derek Lowe 31 5.00 -11.5 182.7 6.83 5.2 3.5 1.49 0.8 .171 3.08 .092 .679 4.54 5.74
Pedro Martinez 33 17.50 51.2 217.0 4.11 9.4 2.5 3.76 1.1 .187 0.89 .145 .709 3.82 3.52
Carl Pavano 28 3.85 62.4 222.3 3.24 5.6 2.0 2.80 0.6 .192 1.49 .094 .718 3.56 3.26
Odalis Perez 27 5.00 49.7 196.3 3.48 5.9 2.0 2.95 1.2 .161 1.64 .134 .737 4.20 3.69
Brad Radke 32 11.50 60.1 219.7 3.77 5.9 1.1 5.36 0.9 .189 1.13 .151 .707 3.78 3.27
*Salary does not include bonuses/incentives.
2003 Stats (2002 if injured):
Name VORP IP ERA K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 GB/FB DERA ERA+
Matt Clement 27.6 201.7 4.11 7.63 3.52 2.17 0.98 2.04 4.24 103
Orlando Hernandez 34.0 146.0 3.64 6.97 2.22 3.14 1.05 0.82 3.58 120
Jon Lieber 22.2 141.0 3.70 5.55 0.77 7.25 0.95 1.23 3.81 109
Pedro Martinez 74.4 186.7 2.22 9.42 2.27 4.38 0.34 1.14 2.01 212
Carl Pavano 28.1 201.0 4.30 5.96 2.19 2.71 0.85 1.10 4.43 94
Odalis Perez 19.2 185.3 4.52 6.85 2.23 3.07 1.36 1.99 4.80 89
Brad Radke 32.8 212.3 4.49 5.09 1.19 4.29 1.36 1.01 4.30 103
2002 Stats (2001 if injured):
Name VORP IP ERA K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 GB/FB DERA ERA+
Matt Clement 41.3 205.0 3.68 9.44 3.73 2.53 0.79 1.62 3.50 112
Orlando Hernandez 12.7 94.7 4.85 7.32 4.02 1.83 1.81 0.65 4.33 92
Jon Lieber 47.1 232.3 3.80 5.73 1.59 3.61 0.97 1.34 3.70 111
Pedro Martinez 70.5 199.3 2.26 10.79 1.80 5.98 0.59 1.16 2.59 196
Carl Pavano (TOTAL)-5.6 136.0 5.16 6.09 2.98 2.04 1.26 1.49 NA 79
Montreal -9.6 74.3 6.39 6.18 3.76 1.65 1.70 1.46 6.07 66
Florida 4.0 61.7 3.79 5.98 2.04 2.93 0.73 1.53 4.43 105
Odalis Perez 59.9 222.3 3.00 6.27 1.54 4.08 0.85 1.36 3.48 126
Brad Radke 14.7 118.3 4.72 4.72 1.52 3.10 0.91 1.05 4.62 94
Some analysis will follow (hopefully sometime soon) so that I can actually see what I did. :lol:
If you notice any mistakes please point them out.
WiffleWOOD
11-10-04, 05:42 PM
wow. lowe had a pretty ghastly season, didn't he?
i'm about to leave work. i will have lots to say on this when I get back home later tonight...
WiffleWOOD
11-10-04, 05:43 PM
oh and kyle, you didn't bold the leader in 2004 DER.
Irony Of It All
11-10-04, 05:43 PM
Originally posted by WiffleWOOD
wow. lowe had a pretty ghastly season, didn't he?
i'm about to leave work. i will have lots to say on this when I get back home later tonight...
Oh, I was going to take him out from the list because I don't really see him as a legitimate possibility. Ehhh, he's there already...
Irony Of It All
11-10-04, 05:45 PM
Originally posted by WiffleWOOD
oh and kyle, you didn't bold the leader in 2004 DER.
Yeah, I thought about it but I'm not sure I really want to. I mean that's not necessarily representative of the pitcher's ability, but rather the defense he plays in front of. Although he can certainly help with a low LD% and high IF/FLY.
WiffleWOOD
11-10-04, 05:48 PM
Originally posted by Irony Of It All
Yeah, I thought about it but I'm not sure I really want to. I mean that's not necessarily representative of the pitcher's ability, but rather the defense he plays in front of. Although he can certainly help with a low LD% and high IF/FLY.
i wrote that without even processing what was going on. you're right, no need to bold that column.
and leave lowe. i just like looking at those numbers. ;)
JavyVazquezIsSick
11-10-04, 09:53 PM
Irony whats LD% again?
WiffleWOOD
11-10-04, 10:01 PM
Originally posted by JavyVazquezIsSick
Irony whats LD% again?
line drive %....percentage of balls in play off of a pitcher that are line drives. the higher the number, the "worse" the pitcher, as line drives are far and away the best ball-in-play type for a batter to convert into a hit.
Irony Of It All
11-10-04, 10:06 PM
Originally posted by JavyVazquezIsSick
Irony whats LD% again?
"LD%: Line drives allowed, expressed as a percent of total batted balls that result in an at bat (e.g., foul outs, home runs and all fairly hit balls)."
Also read this (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/about-those-stats/) article if you're interested.
JavyVazquezIsSick
11-10-04, 10:13 PM
Thanks, I remember now. Do you have LD% for 2003 and 2002?
WiffleWOOD
11-10-04, 10:20 PM
Originally posted by JavyVazquezIsSick
Thanks, I remember now. Do you have LD% for 2003 and 2002?
no, they don't exist anywhere.
NJASDJDH
11-11-04, 07:49 PM
This organization is an embarassment if they sign Milton or Leiter.
WiffleWOOD
11-11-04, 07:53 PM
Originally posted by NJASDJDH
This organization is an embarassment if they sign Milton or Leiter.
i agree, NJ. actually, if they sign Leiter to a one year deal, i wouldn't call them an embarrassment, but I certainly wouldn't be happy.
Milton is absolutely inexcusable.
JeffWeaverFan
11-12-04, 12:49 AM
Originally posted by NJASDJDH
This organization is an embarassment if they sign Milton or Leiter.
I see no problem signing Leiter to a 1 year deal.
The organization will soon be a an embarrassment because Milton is definitely going to be signed.
Irony Of It All
11-12-04, 01:55 AM
Originally posted by JeffWeaverFan
I see no problem signing Leiter to a 1 year deal.
The organization will soon be a an embarrassment because Milton is definitely going to be signed.
He had a FIP (dERA) of 4.78 last year. He had a BB/9 of 5.0 (nearly 100 BB on the year). And he did all this in the NL....
NJASDJDH
11-12-04, 02:03 AM
Originally posted by Irony Of It All
He had a FIP (dERA) of 4.78 last year. He had a BB/9 of 5.0 (nearly 100 BB on the year). And he did all this in the NL....
With Mike Cameron and Richard Hidalgo.
JeffWeaverFan
11-12-04, 02:41 AM
Originally posted by Irony Of It All
He had a FIP (dERA) of 4.78 last year.
That's all I needed to know. Pass.
Hey Irony, are your LD% numbers the same as the ones in the THT book or online? I'm seeing...
Name LD%
Matt Clement .10
Orlando Hernandez .13
Jon Lieber .15
Derek Lowe .13
Pedro Martinez .12
Carl Pavano .15
Odalis Perez .12
Brad Radke .15
in the book... what's going on here...? :-\
Irony Of It All
11-15-04, 11:12 PM
Originally posted by nahzo
Hey Irony, are your LD% numbers the same as the ones in the THT book or online? I'm seeing...
in the book... what's going on here...? :-\
I haven't gotten my book yet, so I used their stats page online. I can't think of any reason why they would be so different. :confused:
EDIT: Ok, so this sounds unlikely to me but it's the only thing that I can think of that would make sense. In the brief analysis for the stats it says this about line drives:
LD%: Line drives allowed, expressed as a percent of total batted balls that result in an at bat (e.g., foul outs, home runs and all fairly hit balls).
It never mentions PA, and the biggest differnece I noticed also happened to be in the pitcher that walked the most batters. I don't get why they would do this but right now it's all I can think of.
EDIT AGAIN: I'm almost sure this is the case since the difference in Lieber's and Radke's is very minimal in comparison to El Duque's and Clements - both of whom are tied for having the highest BB/9 of the pitchers listed.
Also, IIRC, Pedro hits a lot of batters which would explain his discrepancy as well.
Yes, that makes much more sense. I suppose when they were tallying up the LD #'s for just the LD% stat it made sense to see where the balls went that had made contact, but when comparing to the other possibilities that entail in a PA, PA is used. Thus, the discrepency, which is even stated clearly in the header in the book (which I didn't notice at first, :P ):
"The columns show the total number of batters faced by the pitcher (BFP), along with the percent of plate appearances that resulted in a strikeout (K), Walk (BB), Groundball (GB), Outfield fly (OF), Infield fly (IF) and line drive (LD)."
Going from PA's to AB's... it's like converting from english to metric, I tell ya... :)
NewAmsterdamYankee
11-28-04, 04:23 PM
I understand that this thread is a reaction on all the discussion without any statistical basis.
To get a bit clearer vision on the available starting pitchers I accumulated some 'easy' stats for myself in an Excel sheet.
I only know the basic stats, so it's not really sabermatics material, but I wonder if it makes any sense. Bare with me...
Here is a description of what I did:
I made a list of all the main pitchers that are mentioned in the various trade/ FA-singing threads.
I used the following info:
general information:
age, left/right handed, did they play in the AL somewhere in the last 3 years.
2004 stats:
ERA, wins, losses.
information from the last 3 year (accumulated or average):
ERA, IP, BB/9, K/9, hits/inning, wins, losses
I used the information from the last 3 years to filter out irregularities.
My next step was to rate each stat like in a vendor rating.
For example:
I rated the ERA of the last 3 years as follows:
<3.00: 20 pnts
3.00 - 3.24: 16 pnts
3.25 - 3.49: 12 pnts
3.50 - 3.99: 9 pnts, etc
The most points could be collected by Wins, Innings Pitched and ERA, but I also rewarded K's/9 and age. K's/9 because the Yankee crowd likes K's, and age because of the need for the Yankees to build on a pitching staff for the years to come (IMO), and the bigger chance for an injury at a higher age.
I know there are some flaws in this method (points are subjective, injured players in the 3 yrs don't score well, etc.).
To make a long story a bit shorter:
Does this approach make any sense?
If so, what can I do to improve it?
Can I put the spreadsheet online, or should I type it all over?
Without giving you the calculations a short overview of the result:
Pedro and Randy Johnson are the big fish (I know R.Johnson is not direct available, it was just to rate their skills).
Runners up are Odalis Perez and Russ Ortiz and then Pavano (Pavano scored a bit less because his last season was way better than the previous two).
I just wrote it down in one breath, so I'm sorry if it is not that coherent, but maybe you could give me a few pointers in comparing pitchers, and maybe, if I can post the calculations, it could be food for some discussion.
Thanx for any reply and advice.
By the way: it would be nice to add estimated 2005 saleries to make it a proper vendor rating.
Another 'by the way': Does anyone know how Yankee management rates the available pitchers? Gut feeling? Or some statistical method? Or both?
JeffWeaverFan
11-29-04, 04:06 PM
Originally posted by NewAmsterdamYankee
but maybe you could give me a few pointers in comparing pitchers, and maybe, if I can post the calculations, it could be food for some discussion.
I think the best statistic to predict how a pitcher will do next season is his DIPS (or dERA or FIP). This article describes that stat: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878
Here are some 2004 stats for it: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statalpitch/
and
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?seasonType=2&type=pitch5&sort=ERA&split=0&season=2004&pos=all&hand=a&league=mlb&ageMin=0&ageMax=99
Also, VORP is a good statistic to use when judging a pitcher (or a hitter)and so is component earned run average (or ERC). ERC can be found in Bill James 2005 handbook which is a very good book.
NewAmsterdamYankee
12-13-04, 03:20 PM
I haven't had time to work on my spreadsheet any further, but I did buy the Bill James Handbook (2005).
I was surprised the British version of Amazon had it on stock (bought it through the NYYF link, but dont know if they'll receive a bonus on amazon.co.uk sales).
I should have it at the end of this week.
I also bought "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract".
I hope it's a good book. Well... it's about a 1,000 pages so at least I get a lot pages for my money's worth.
I am looking forward to learning more about the stats and the game itself.
Next thing you know I will be having an opinion of my own ;)
JeffWeaverFan
12-14-04, 02:16 PM
Originally posted by NewAmsterdamYankee
I haven't had time to work on my spreadsheet any further, but I did buy the Bill James Handbook (2005).
I was surprised the British version of Amazon had it on stock (bought it through the NYYF link, but dont know if they'll receive a bonus on amazon.co.uk sales).
I should have it at the end of this week.
I also bought "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract".
I hope it's a good book. Well... it's about a 1,000 pages so at least I get a lot pages for my money's worth.
I am looking forward to learning more about the stats and the game itself.
Next thing you know I will be having an opinion of my own ;)
I bought the Bill James Handbook about a month ago and it is a real good book. I'm a big fan of his ERC stat and find it very interesting.
I also bought The Abstract book but haven't started reading it yet.
I'm glad to hear that. Another book that you have to buy is Baseball Prospectus: 2005 when it comes out, which I hear will be February. I got the 2004 version a month ago but there's no point in getting that now that you the 2005 version is coming out soon.
I'm looking forward to hearing them.:)
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