How the season will end.. according to math. [Archive]

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efabian

08-23-04, 02:30 PM

I did some reasoning to come up with end of year stats. These calculations are completely irrelavant, yet entertaining.

Yankees:

Teams Remaining and games vs.
Cleveland 6
Toronto 10
Baltimore 6
Tampa Bay 5
Kansas City 3
Boston 6
Minnesota 3

Results against these teams YTD:
Cleveland 0-0 (note: since the yanks have not played cleveland, assumption is that teams will split 50/50)
Toronto 7-2
Baltimore 11-2
Tampa Bay 10-4
Kansas City 3-0
Boston 5-8
Minnesota 1-2

Percentage of series won against teams YTD:
Cleveland .5
Toronto .778
Baltimore .846
Tampa Bay .714
Kansas City 1
Boston .384
Minnesota .333

Number of games that will be won against teams for remainder of season considering % won YTD:
Cleveland 3
Toronto 7.778
Baltimore 5.07
Tampa Bay 3.57
Kansas City 3
Boston 2.3
Minnesota 1

Record for remaining 39 games:
25.733 - 13.266

Socks:

Teams Remaining and games vs.
Toronto 3
Detroit 4
Anaheim 3
Texas 3
Oakland 3
Seattle 4
NY Yankees 6
Baltimore 8
Tampa Bay 6

Results against these teams YTD:
Toronto 12-4
Detroit 2-1
Anaheim 2-4
Texas 2-4
Oakland 5-1
Seattle 3-2
NY Yankees 8-5
Baltimore 4-7
Tampa Bay 10-3

Percentage of games won against team YTD:
Toronto 0.75
Detroit 0.667
Anaheim 0.333
Texas 0.333
Oakland 0.833
Seattle 0.6
NY Yankees 0.615
Baltimore 0.363
Tampa Bay 0.769

Number of games that will be won against teams for remainder of season considering % won YTD:
Toronto 2.25
Detroit 2.667
Anaheim 1
Texas 1
Oakland 2.5
Seattle 2.4
NY Yankees 3.69
Baltimore 2.90
Tampa Bay 4.61

Record for remaining 40 games:
23.033 - 16.966

Final Standings:

Yankees: 101.733 - 60.266
Red Sox: 93.033 - 68.966

Conclusion: Yanks by 8ish.

You saw it here first. ;)

cheers
ed

ForceFive

08-23-04, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by efabian

Final Standings:

Yankees: 101.733 - 60.266
Red Sox: 93.033 - 68.966

Conclusion: Yanks by 8ish.

I always thought those dudes over at BP were really smart. :D ;)

efabian

08-30-04, 02:36 PM

08/30 Update

Standings:
New York 81 49
Boston 76 53

Yankees:

Teams Remaining and games vs.
Cleveland 3
Toronto 6
Baltimore 6
Tampa Bay 5
Kansas City 3
Boston 6
Minnesota 3

Results against these teams YTD:
Cleveland 2-1
Toronto 10-3
Baltimore 11-2
Tampa Bay 10-4
Kansas City 3-0
Boston 5-8
Minnesota 1-2

Percentage of series won against teams YTD:
Cleveland .667
Toronto .769
Baltimore .846
Tampa Bay .714
Kansas City 1
Boston .384
Minnesota .333

Number of games that will be won against teams for remainder of season considering % won YTD:
Cleveland 2
Toronto 4.61
Baltimore 5.07
Tampa Bay 3.57
Kansas City 3
Boston 2.3
Minnesota 1

Record for remaining 32 games:
21.55 - 10.45

Socks:

Teams Remaining and games vs.
Anaheim 3
Texas 3
Oakland 3
Seattle 4
NY Yankees 6
Baltimore 8
Tampa Bay 6

Results against these teams YTD:
Anaheim 2-4
Texas 2-4
Oakland 5-1
Seattle 3-2
NY Yankees 8-5
Baltimore 4-7
Tampa Bay 10-3

Percentage of games won against team YTD:
Anaheim 0.333
Texas 0.333
Oakland 0.833
Seattle 0.6
NY Yankees 0.615
Baltimore 0.363
Tampa Bay 0.769

Number of games that will be won against teams for remainder of season considering % won YTD:
Anaheim 1
Texas 1
Oakland 2.5
Seattle 2.4
NY Yankees 3.69
Baltimore 2.90
Tampa Bay 4.61

Record for remaining 33 games:
18.1 - 14.9

Final Standings:

Yankees: 102.55 - 59.45 .633
Red Sox: 94.1 - 67.9 .580

Conclusion: Yanks by 8ish still.

cheers
ed

mr. baskums

08-30-04, 02:45 PM

Ed I sit in awe of your mathematical ability. Would you like to take my statistics test for me?? :)

efabian

08-30-04, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by mr. baskums
Ed I sit in awe of your mathematical ability. Would you like to take my statistics test for me?? :)

sorry baskums, unless you're taking a test for your second PHD in statistical analysis, i'm afraid with my ability, your professor will know that i had taken it for you ;)

mr. baskums

08-31-04, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by efabian

sorry baskums, unless you're taking a test for your second PHD in statistical analysis, i'm afraid with my ability, your professor will know that i had taken it for you ;)

Geez, I guess so. Can you fake it??;)

JeffWeaverFan

09-01-04, 03:11 PM

Allright, I'll take your word for it. We are winning by 8 games.

efabian

09-06-04, 04:59 PM

09/06 Update

Standings:
New York 84 52
Boston 81 54

Yankees:

Teams Remaining and games vs.
Toronto 6
Baltimore 3
Tampa Bay 5
Kansas City 3
Boston 6
Minnesota 3

Results against these teams YTD:
Toronto 10-3
Baltimore 12-4
Tampa Bay 10-4
Kansas City 3-0
Boston 5-8
Minnesota 1-2

Percentage of series won against teams YTD:
Toronto .769
Baltimore .75
Tampa Bay .714
Kansas City 1
Boston .384
Minnesota .333

Number of games that will be won against teams for remainder of season considering % won YTD:
Toronto 4.61
Baltimore 2.25
Tampa Bay 3.57
Kansas City 3
Boston 2.3
Minnesota 1

Record for remaining 26 games:
16.73 - 9.27

Socks:

Teams Remaining and games vs.
Oakland 3
Seattle 4
NY Yankees 6
Baltimore 8
Tampa Bay 6

Results against these teams YTD:
Oakland 5-1
Seattle 3-2
NY Yankees 8-5
Baltimore 4-7
Tampa Bay 10-3

Percentage of games won against team YTD:
Oakland 0.833
Seattle 0.6
NY Yankees 0.615
Baltimore 0.363
Tampa Bay 0.769

Number of games that will be won against teams for remainder of season considering % won YTD:
Oakland 2.5
Seattle 2.4
NY Yankees 3.69
Baltimore 2.90
Tampa Bay 4.61

Record for remaining 27 games:
16.1 - 140.9

Final Standings:

Yankees: 100.73 - 61.27 .622
Red Sox: 97.1 - 64.9 .599

Conclusion: Yanks by 3ish.. yikes.

cheers
ed

efabian

09-12-04, 07:18 PM

09/13 Update

Standings:
New York 90 53
Boston 86 56

Yankees:

Teams Remaining and games vs.
Toronto 6
Tampa Bay 1
Kansas City 3
Boston 6
Minnesota 3

Results against these teams YTD:
Toronto 10-3
Tampa Bay 14-4
Kansas City 3-0
Boston 5-8
Minnesota 1-2

Percentage of series won against teams YTD:
Toronto .769
Tampa Bay .777
Kansas City 1
Boston .384
Minnesota .333

Number of games that will be won against teams for remainder of season considering % won YTD:
Toronto 4.61
Tampa Bay .777
Kansas City 3
Boston 2.3
Minnesota 1

Record for remaining 19 games:
11.687 - 7.313

Socks:

Teams Remaining and games vs.
NY Yankees 6
Baltimore 8
Tampa Bay 6

Results against these teams YTD:
NY Yankees 8-5
Baltimore 4-7
Tampa Bay 10-3

Percentage of games won against team YTD:
NY Yankees 0.615
Baltimore 0.363
Tampa Bay 0.769

Number of games that will be won against teams for remainder of season considering % won YTD:
NY Yankees 3.69
Baltimore 2.90
Tampa Bay 4.61

Record for remaining 20 games:
11.2 - 8.8

Final Standings:

Yankees: 101.687 - 60.313 .627
Red Sox: 97.2 - 64.8 .600

Conclusion: Yanks by 4.5ish.

cheers
ed

mr. baskums

09-16-04, 04:00 PM

Ed, you're the best!

mr. baskums

09-22-04, 04:25 PM

Ed, how about an update? You're right on with your last update!

efabian

09-22-04, 07:32 PM

Originally posted by mr. baskums
Ed, how about an update? You're right on with your last update!

sorry about that! had some issues with an invalid email address.. but we're back.

09/22 Update

Standings:
New York 95 56
Boston 90 60

Yankees:

Teams Remaining and games vs.
Toronto 4
Tampa Bay 1
Boston 3
Minnesota 3

Results against these teams YTD:
Toronto 11-4
Tampa Bay 14-4
Boston 7-9
Minnesota 1-2

Percentage of series won against teams YTD:
Toronto .733
Tampa Bay .777
Boston .437
Minnesota .333

Number of games that will be won against teams for remainder of season considering % won YTD:
Toronto 2.93
Tampa Bay .777
Boston 1.311
Minnesota 1

Record for remaining 19 games:
6.018 - 4.982

Socks:

Teams Remaining and games vs.
NY Yankees 3
Baltimore 6
Tampa Bay 3

Results against these teams YTD:
NY Yankees 9-7
Baltimore 5-8
Tampa Bay 12-4

Percentage of games won against team YTD:
NY Yankees 0.5625
Baltimore 0.385
Tampa Bay 0.75

Number of games that will be won against teams for remainder of season considering % won YTD:
NY Yankees 1.6875
Baltimore 2.31
Tampa Bay 2.25

Record for remaining 20 games:
6.037 - 5.963

Final Standings:

Yankees: 101.018 - 60.982 .624
Red Sox: 96.037 - 65.963 .592

Conclusion: Yanks by 5ish.

cheers
ed

mr. baskums

09-23-04, 12:09 PM

I am honored to be in the company of a genious and am in awe of your statistical abilities.

Yanks by 5!!

efabian

10-01-04, 01:00 PM

Final Update

Standings:
New York 95 56
Boston 90 60

Yankees:

Teams Remaining and games vs.
Toronto 3

Results against these teams YTD:
Toronto 11-5

Percentage of series won against teams YTD:
Toronto .687

Number of games that will be won against teams for remainder of season considering % won YTD:
Toronto 2.06

Record for remaining 19 games:
2.06 - .94

Socks:

Teams Remaining and games vs.
Baltimore 4

Results against these teams YTD:
Baltimore 6-9

Percentage of games won against team YTD:
Baltimore 0.4

Number of games that will be won against teams for remainder of season considering % won YTD:
Baltimore 1.6

Record for remaining 20 games:
1.6 - 2.4

Final Standings:

Yankees: 102.06 - 59.94
Red Sox: 96.6 - 65.4

Final Conclusion: Yanks by 6ish

cheers
ed