Question 4 Sox fans about Sox rotation. [Archive]

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Bluesexy's daddy

06-05-04, 11:29 AM

Ok, We are at "D Day" now so we have had time to see how players are performing. IN ST many Sox fans were saying that the Sox have the best rotation. I felt that the Sox had a good rotation but not the best. How do sox fans rate their rotation (and the entire staff) at this point in the season? You guys see the Sox games while for the most part I just read about them breifly. I see Pedro's numbers and Wakefield's numbers but that never tells the whole story.

KP88

06-05-04, 11:51 AM

I'd say that in ST, the claims of the best rotation in the game were arguable, but warranted, given the previous year's performance. As it stands now, the staff hasn't performed as expected, except for Curt. But every team goes through slumps and periods where they don't perform well, and this is one of those times. I think it's fair to say that this rotation is still among the best, and it's only a matter of time before they show it.

cubswin

06-05-04, 11:52 AM

Never felt that they were the best rotation, still don't. But still think it will be among the best come year end. Pedro's been a mystery -- the other night he was hitting 94, which is a good sign, but his location is still off. Lowe is worrisome. Kim injury hurts a lot. However, I expect Pedro will soon be dominating again, and coupled w/Schilling and Wake, they're a very good front 3. In some ways, I hope Lowe doesn't come around, as it would increase the likelihood of the Sox making a run at Johnson or somebody like that at the trading deadline.

Espinosa's Glasses

06-05-04, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by cubswin
Never felt that they were the best rotation, still don't. But still think it will be among the best come year end. Pedro's been a mystery -- the other night he was hitting 94, which is a good sign, but his location is still off. Lowe is worrisome. Kim injury hurts a lot. However, I expect Pedro will soon be dominating again, and coupled w/Schilling and Wake, they're a very good front 3. In some ways, I hope Lowe doesn't come around, as it would increase the likelihood of the Sox making a run at Johnson or somebody like that at the trading deadline.

I hope Lowe doesn't come around for different reasons.... :lol: but... say he did come around and really pitched good... wouldn't you take a Carlos Beltran instead of a 40 year old great pitcher?

Doc's Private Stash

06-05-04, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by Espinosa's Glasses

I hope Lowe doesn't come around for different reasons.... :lol: but... say he did come around and really pitched good... wouldn't you take a Carlos Beltran instead of a 40 year old great pitcher?

Regardless of the facts that a) he'll be the prize FA next offseason with Boras as his agent and b) the Sox would have nowhere to put him if they got him, it'll take waaaay too much young talent to get Beltran out of K.C. I can't see how Boston would even bat an eye at Beltran this year, but you never know I guess.

As for the Sox rotation, I'm still very confident it will deliver as advertised by the season's end. Up until this recent pitching slump (Sox starters have posted a RIDICULOUS 7.98 ERA over the last 9 games) they were leading the league in team ERA, and that was even despite the black hole that Derek Lowe has become. While I've never been a huge Lowe apologist, he isn't THIS bad, nor do I expect him to remain this bad for the rest of the year. Schilling has been great, and last two starts aside, so has Wake. I don't think anyone could feel comfortable betting against Pedro returning to some semblance of his old self, and Arroyo is what he is- a servicable 5th starter who'll probably post an ERA in the 4-5 range.

All in all, when you're talking about the top staffs in the majors this year, I'd still easily slide Boston into the top 5, if not the top 3. They're in a slump right now, these things happen. I'd imagine they'll straighten out before too long.

deranged2005

06-05-04, 12:39 PM

The thing is, Johnson is having a pretty good season, and Lowe isn't. Why trade Johnson for Lowe? Besides a salary dump, theres no reason. Maybe the DBacks will do it if they're really out of it, but I don't see it happening. I wouldn't do it. Stranger things have happened.

I agree the rotation hasn't performed really well. Pedro's struggling, Lowe is pretty bad, Arroyo/Kim really aren't getting the job done. Wakes has been ok. Schilling is really the key pitcher.

MaineSoxFan

06-05-04, 12:51 PM

Originally posted by deranged2005
The thing is, Johnson is having a pretty good season, and Lowe isn't. Why trade Johnson for Lowe? Besides a salary dump, theres no reason. Maybe the DBacks will do it if they're really out of it, but I don't see it happening. I wouldn't do it. Stranger things have happened.

I don't believe they were saying trade Lowe for Johnson, just that the Sox would be more inclined to take a run at a serious pitcher if Lowe doesn't come around.

cubswin

06-05-04, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by Espinosa's Glasses

I hope Lowe doesn't come around for different reasons.... :lol: but... say he did come around and really pitched good... wouldn't you take a Carlos Beltran instead of a 40 year old great pitcher?

Come the offseason, sure. But if I'm guessing who would be more of a boost to the Sox in an attempt to win the series, especially if Trot, Nomar and Burks return healthy, I've got to go with the dominant southpaw over yet another bat.

cubswin

06-05-04, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by MaineSoxFan

I don't believe they were saying trade Lowe for Johnson, just that the Sox would be more inclined to take a run at a serious pitcher if Lowe doesn't come around.

That is exactly what Iw as saying.

WakefieldsCrewSox

06-05-04, 01:28 PM

Couldn't help but think last night.....The A's have just lost Chavez for 6-8 weeks leaving a hole at third base. A very highly coveted Red Sox player dubbed the Greek God of Walks has recently made a VERY effective ascent to the majors. While I absolutely love Youkilis and what he has been able to do since coming up, it would not surprise me if Beane potentially made a run at him, and depending on how the pitching situation is going (mainly Lowe), whether Theo would entertain an offer to get a guy like Zito. This would be time sensitive however, as Nomar would have to return first for us to be able to make the pieces fit (Nomar SS, Pokey 2nd, Bellhorn 3rd until BillMuell comes back). It would leave us precariously thin. Just a thought, not necessarily saying I'm in favor of it.

Jersey Yankee

06-05-04, 02:35 PM

If I were a BoSox fan, which I'm not, I'd likely be worried about both Lowe and Pedro, who few discuss. Despite Pedro's almost losing to Seattle for his first time in his next to last start, he really surprised me by letting Vlad get so many hits off him.

I guess he'll turn it around, like he's done in other seasons, but he's been getting worrisome in his last few games. Going from bad to worse isn't a good sign, especially against the AL West. If Ortiz needs a slam to bail him out (as against Seattle), I think there's a problem.

For Lowe, it could be something personal, his FA status this winter, or just plain ineffectiveness. I haven't heard of any injury, so likely in the head.

WakefieldsCrewSox

06-05-04, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by Jersey Yankee
If I were a BoSox fan, which I'm not, I'd likely be worried about both Lowe and Pedro, who few discuss. Despite Pedro's almost losing to Seattle for his first time in his next to last start, he really surprised me by letting Vlad get so many hits off him.

I guess he'll turn it around, like he's done in other seasons, but he's been getting worrisome in his last few games. Going from bad to worse isn't a good sign, especially against the AL West. If Ortiz needs a slam to bail him out (as against Seattle), I think there's a problem.

For Lowe, it could be something personal, his FA status this winter, or just plain ineffectiveness. I haven't heard of any injury, so likely in the head.

While I think many Red Sox fans are worried about Pedro right now, its much easier to accept the fact that he will straighten himself out, based on the fact that he is just struggling with command right now. Even the best pitchers in the game have rough stretches.

Lowe on the other hand does worry me because it does seem mental. Like I've said before, I think they should try pulling him after 5 in one of his next starts assuming hes gone ok up until that time. He's been pretty good in most starts lately for about 5, but then collapses. If they pulled him before he could lose it, I think it could help to rebuild his confidence.

Jersey Yankee

06-05-04, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by WakefieldsCrewSox
While I think many Red Sox fans are worried about Pedro right now, its much easier to accept the fact that he will straighten himself out, based on the fact that he is just struggling with command right now. Even the best pitchers in the game have rough stretches.

Lowe on the other hand does worry me because it does seem mental. Like I've said before, I think they should try pulling him after 5 in one of his next starts assuming hes gone ok up until that time. He's been pretty good in most starts lately for about 5, but then collapses. If they pulled him before he could lose it, I think it could help to rebuild his confidence. For Pedro, it seems like an annual thing re him having rough stretches. How long you figure this one will last? Anyone's guess? I've never kept count of how long these last w/him.

So you're seeing control as the big issue. Was that only with Vlad in his last start? Only 1 other guy got an RBI off him, but 9 is pretty up there. I can't say if he's in trouble or not, since it's not like Rey "Limp Bat" Ordonez got those RBI off him.

Since Lowe was your closer in '01, you think he's retreating to being comfy w/fewer innings? Right now, he seems more like a longman/spot starter than SP.

So if in his next start, Lowe's gone 3 hits, 2 runs, Sox up 5-2, would you trot him out f/the 6th inning or go to Embree/Timlin?

As to "losing it", I presume you'd meant going bonkers, correct? Or were you referring to losing effectiveness?

For confidence, how's the "D" and bats when he pitches? I remember up until 2003, Moose would almost never get run support, and sometimes the gloves would be sloppy, and it always seemed timed against him. Just wondering if that ever happened with you guys/gals.

WakefieldsCrewSox

06-05-04, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by Jersey Yankee
For Pedro, it seems like an annual thing re him having rough stretches. How long you figure this one will last? Anyone's guess? I've never kept count of how long these last w/him.

So you're seeing control as the big issue. Was that only with Vlad in his last start? Only 1 other guy got an RBI off him, but 9 is pretty up there. I can't say if he's in trouble or not, since it's not like Rey "Limp Bat" Ordonez got those RBI off him.

Since Lowe was your closer in '01, you think he's retreating to being comfy w/fewer innings? Right now, he seems more like a longman/spot starter than SP.

So if in his next start, Lowe's gone 3 hits, 2 runs, Sox up 5-2, would you trot him out f/the 6th inning or go to Embree/Timlin?

As to "losing it", I presume you'd meant going bonkers, correct? Or were you referring to losing effectiveness?

For confidence, how's the "D" and bats when he pitches? I remember up until 2003, Moose would almost never get run support, and sometimes the gloves would be sloppy, and it always seemed timed against him. Just wondering if that ever happened with you guys/gals.

Not sure how long it will last with Pedro, but I read today that he has supposedly picked up a mechanical problem while studying film with Dave Wallace, the pitching coach. Something to do with his leg kick. So hopefully he'll break out of it soon.

Personally, from what I've observed its a control issue. He was hitting the mid nineties on his fastball, so I dont think we can point to velocity as a problem. But if you watched the Angels game, he was significantly missing his spots (the hanging curves to Guerrerro missed by over a foot, and we all saw the results of that). Pedro has always been the best because he can spot any of his pitches (many would argue that his fastball is only his third best pitch behind his change and breaking ball). Obviously his trouble doing that right now has led him to struggle. I have a feeling he will straighten it out soon.

I didnt necessarily mean to imply Lowe is more comfortable with fewer innings physically, but that his problem is mental, and getting him out after a good start but without letting him go too long could be helpful. He has not had success yet this year, and so he practically expects things to go badly. The end of the last game aside, his control has not been bad. He has started games well, but once something bad happens, things snowball and he can no longer focus. While this has not always been the case, it always seems to happen during particularly rough stretches for him. My suggestion was that the next time out, if they can get 5 or so solid innings out of him, pull him then on a good note so that his confidence is high leaving, rather than being down. Granted, with our bullpen being short a key man (Willy) that is easier said than done at the moment.

To answer your 5-2 scenario, I might let him start the 6th, but if he begins to walk guys or get hit hard, I pull him sooner rather than later (Francona has seemed to want to leave him in longer- I dont think this is a great idea). My previous five innings number was just hypothetical- my main point was to try and get him out on a high rather than a low.

'Losing it'- mostly I meant his focus. For a guy like Lowe, his effectiveness is directly related to whether he can remain locked in and focused. If he begins to feel things slipping away, they almost always do. Again, the confidence issue.

Overall, I think the bats have been good for Lowe. He has some of the highest run support on the team (and he did last year as well). The D i am not positive, but I dont think it has caused his problems necessarily. As a sinkerball/ground ball pitcher, it can be tough because all it takes is a few cheap seeing-eye single hits to get something going.

Hope some of that was helpful to answer your Q's.

Wrigley

06-05-04, 04:35 PM

How can a guy who has only had 9 games out of 300 starts with allowing 10 or more hits have annual rough stretches? That is the reason why Pedro leads in ERA every year... he is consistently dominant.

Pedro doesn't struggle... there is something very wrong. I just can't see how he can go from being a 2.22 ERA pitcher to a 4.40 pitcher. How could his skills diminish that quickly and severely? It isn't the velocity that has been killing him, it's his lack of control. His changeup isn't nearly as deadly as it used to be mostly because he doesn't throw 95 anymore. His cutter is on and off. I think his curveball is very easily his best pitch now. He'll be effective throwing 90 mph, but if he doesn't get back that Pedro Control, he is finished and Boston will have major problems. The Yankees are already beginning to mount a lead.

WakefieldsCrewSox

06-05-04, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by Wrigley
It isn't the velocity that has been killing him, it's his lack of control. His changeup isn't nearly as deadly as it used to be mostly because he doesn't throw 95 anymore. His cutter is on and off. I think his curveball is very easily his best pitch now. He'll be effective throwing 90 mph, but if he doesn't get back that Pedro Control, he is finished and Boston will have major problems.

It is true that something can be said for the argument of differential (the bigger the difference in MPH between offspeed pitches and fastball, the more effective they'll be), but Pedro still has a 10-12 MPH difference between the two, which is plenty, so that likely isnt the problem. As you said, its his control that is hurting him now. Seeing where Varitek sets up and where the ball is going, there is a noticeable difference. I think we will see him regain the control however, and while a sub 3 ERA may not be realistic, I think we will see it in the low 3 range when all is said and done this year.

WakefieldsKnuckler49

06-05-04, 04:56 PM

I'm still expecting a sub-3 ERA from Pedro, all it will take is a stretch of ten Pedro-esque starts to get near the 3 mark. I'm confident he will come around, if only because hes done nothing to show me that he won't. Lowe is a more difficult situation. He obviously isn't THIS bad, but hes not as good as he was in 2002. He will most likely find that he will have more years like last year (13-16 wins mid 4s ERA) for the rest of his career. Who knows though? The guy should be unhittable, his sinker is unbelievable when kept down in the zone. He's just not getting it down there.

Plus hes not throwing the sinker enough, hes trying to throw too many other pitches. Stick with the sinker, not many ground balls get hit for extra bases.

Jersey Yankee

06-05-04, 06:06 PM

Wake'sCrew, very helpful indeed. :)

Wrigley

06-05-04, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by WakefieldsCrewSox
It is true that something can be said for the argument of differential (the bigger the difference in MPH between offspeed pitches and fastball, the more effective they'll be), but Pedro still has a 10-12 MPH difference between the two, which is plenty, so that likely isnt the problem. As you said, its his control that is hurting him now. Seeing where Varitek sets up and where the ball is going, there is a noticeable difference. I think we will see him regain the control however, and while a sub 3 ERA may not be realistic, I think we will see it in the low 3 range when all is said and done this year.

Oh his changeup is still very effective, I just believe it isn't as devastating as it once was, and that his curve has now become his best pitch.

MaineSoxFan

06-06-04, 10:41 AM

For what it's worth, the Sox look like they will be bringing in Tony Cloninger to work with Lowe during the next homestand. He was the pitching coach during the 2002 season.

WakefieldsCrewSox

06-06-04, 11:32 AM

I might be crazy, but I have a very good feeling about Lowe's start today. We'll see if I'm right, or if I have sh** for instincts.

WakefieldsCrewSox

06-06-04, 03:24 PM

Interesting. Lowe ended up in a very similar situation to the one Jersey Yankee laid out earlier in this thread. He didn't pitch badly, let up 3 runs and was down 3-0 going to the 6th. The Sox ended up striking for 5 runs in the inning, staking him to a 5-3 lead, and then instead of running Lowe back out, Francona opted for Timlin in the 6th. There were also time considerations (the Sox half of the inning took almost 35 minutes) but like we said before, there is maybe something to be said for Terry getting Lowe out on a high note where he can hopefully rack up a win (the game is in the 7th now). We'll see if this helps Derek get some momentum and head in the right direction.

MaineSoxFan

06-06-04, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by WakefieldsCrewSox
Interesting. Lowe ended up in a very similar situation to the one Jersey Yankee laid out earlier in this thread. He didn't pitch badly, let up 3 runs and was down 3-0 going to the 6th. The Sox ended up striking for 5 runs in the inning, staking him to a 5-3 lead, and then instead of running Lowe back out, Francona opted for Timlin in the 6th. There were also time considerations (the Sox half of the inning took almost 35 minutes) but like we said before, there is maybe something to be said for Terry getting Lowe out on a high note where he can hopefully rack up a win (the game is in the 7th now). We'll see if this helps Derek get some momentum and head in the right direction.

Definitely an interesting move by Francona, and I think a good one (as long as they can hold on). Lets Derek leave the game on a high note and hopefully gain some confidence. It was good to see Lowe pitch himself out of a jam in the 5th.

Doc's Private Stash

06-07-04, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by WakefieldsKnuckler49
Plus hes not throwing the sinker enough, hes trying to throw too many other pitches. Stick with the sinker, not many ground balls get hit for extra bases.

See, I'd argue that throwing the sinker too much is what has caused a lot of his recent struggles, quite frankly. The thing is, Lowe's sinker, when thrown properly, is a ball 19 times out of 20. It's an out pitch- a pitch that moves from inside the zone to outside the zone, and causes the batter to chase it. The reason Lowe succeeded so much in 2002 was due to one hitter after another stepping up and smacking his sinker into the dirt. And while this proved a highly successful method of pitching for Lowe in the short term, it had the side effect of not making him learn how to mix his pitches. He's never really learned how to pitch to people early in counts to set up the sinker, but rather relied on the sinker almost exclusively. This year, the scouting reports have cauight up to him. Hitters across the league have been waiting him out early in counts this year (his pitches/inning are up 3.5 from 2002, and his K/BB rate has plummeted from 2.65 in '02 to a pathetic .84 this season so far), and he's been falling behind with sinkers out of the zone. The result is, once behind, he's having to come upstairs into the zone more either with cut fastballs with less english on 'em or his off-speed stuff. As a result, hitters have been hitting a lot more line drives against him (GB/FB is down from a career high 3.92:1 last year to 2.85 this year).

He needs to focus on getting ahead of more hitters, because when his sinker is set up in favorable counts it's one of the single most devastating pitches in baseball. So far, though, he's been unable to set it up properly, and the results have been disgusting to watch.

justin32099

06-07-04, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by MaineSoxFan

Definitely an interesting move by Francona, and I think a good one (as long as they can hold on). Lets Derek leave the game on a high note and hopefully gain some confidence. It was good to see Lowe pitch himself out of a jam in the 5th.

I think the length of the 6th inning (with the fluke Royals injury and 5 runs) had something to do with it too. But confidence is an issue, too. Though Lowe pitched pretty well.

Lowe has been poor this year, but he's also given up flukishly many hits. I'd attribute at least some of his poor play to bad luck.

deranged2005

06-07-04, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by justin32099
Lowe has been poor this year, but he's also given up flukishly many hits. I'd attribute at least some of his poor play to bad luck.

And Todd "No Range" Walker

Oh wait......

justin32099

06-07-04, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by Wrigley
How can a guy who has only had 9 games out of 300 starts with allowing 10 or more hits have annual rough stretches? That is the reason why Pedro leads in ERA every year... he is consistently dominant.

Pedro doesn't struggle... there is something very wrong. I just can't see how he can go from being a 2.22 ERA pitcher to a 4.40 pitcher. How could his skills diminish that quickly and severely? It isn't the velocity that has been killing him, it's his lack of control. His changeup isn't nearly as deadly as it used to be mostly because he doesn't throw 95 anymore. His cutter is on and off. I think his curveball is very easily his best pitch now. He'll be effective throwing 90 mph, but if he doesn't get back that Pedro Control, he is finished and Boston will have major problems. The Yankees are already beginning to mount a lead.

As much as us Yankee fans would want to say Pedro is done, he absolutely isn't. He has 76 Ks (in 75.2 innings) and 20 BBs. The only problem has been an increase in home runs, and I have a tough time saying that a pitcher with 10 years of excellent pitching under his belt is done because of 10 home runs.

MaineSoxFan

06-07-04, 08:51 PM

WakefieldsCrewSox

06-07-04, 11:15 PM

Can't wait to see him pitch tomorrow against Wells (my buddy came through bigtime with some tix). Hopefully Nomar is still slated to make his return too.

Bluesexy's daddy

06-08-04, 02:23 PM

Thanks for the informative insights. There seems to be considerable room for "debate" but with pitching there is ALWAYS room for debate.
Schilling has produced as advertised. I still can't figure out Pedro,Wake, or Lowe. It will be interesting to revisit this in Sept.

Predicting pitching must age all GMs by a factor of three.If an MLB GM or Manager ever jumps from a roof I will assume it was caused by a pitcher.

WakefieldsCrewSox

06-08-04, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by Bluesexy's daddy

Predicting pitching must age all GMs by a factor of three.If an MLB GM or Manager ever jumps from a roof I will assume it was caused by a pitcher.

:lol:
Between the unexpected struggles of Lowe, Kim and Contreras, I have a feeling that Cashman and Epstein both must feel that sometimes a ledge isn't too unappealing of a proposition...

RhodeyYankee2638

06-08-04, 02:54 PM

Between the unexpected struggles of Lowe, Kim and Contreras, I have a feeling that Cashman and Epstein both must feel that sometimes a ledge isn't too unappealing of a proposition...

LOL everytime they show Cashman in the Luxury boxes, he always looks like he is a hardcore alcoholic.....

http://espn-i.starwave.com/media/mlb/2001/0601/photo/a_brian_cashman_vt.jpg

WakefieldsCrewSox

06-08-04, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by RhodeyYankee2638

LOL everytime they show Cashman in the Luxury boxes, he always looks like he is a hardcore alcoholic.....

http://espn-i.starwave.com/media/mlb/2001/0601/photo/a_brian_cashman_vt.jpg

:lol:
I remember seeing that picture the first time and being very worried for the man's health. What is it about New York that makes all of the sports brass look as if they are suffering from the same debilitating illness? (Jeff Van Gundy anyone :lol: ). I think George needs to lend out his place in Florida more often. Get that man some sun!

Wrigley

06-08-04, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by justin32099
As much as us Yankee fans would want to say Pedro is done, he absolutely isn't. He has 76 Ks (in 75.2 innings) and 20 BBs. The only problem has been an increase in home runs, and I have a tough time saying that a pitcher with 10 years of excellent pitching under his belt is done because of 10 home runs.

Who said he was done? I said if he doesn't get back 'Pedro Control', which is beyond about anybody else in baseball, he's finished, which in that case, would be. He can survive throwing 88 mph fastballs, but not without control.

Tonight he had his fastball at around 93-94 AND great control. The Result was 8 innings of 2-hit, shutout baseball.

WakefieldsCrewSox

06-09-04, 03:19 PM

Tonight, I think the plan is for Arroyo to start and for Timmy to come in in relief (there was a switch so that he won't pitch at Coors apparently). I can't help but feel that tonight is a very important start for Bronson. After his best outing of the season against Toronto, he has now posted a few lackluster outings in a row. Not terrible, nor are his overall numbers for a 5 guy, but with the trade deadline drawing near I feel that we're getting to that point where Theo is probably gaging whether we have enough to go on, or whether he needs to start trying to make a deal for another starter. Any thoughts?