Question: What exactly is DIPS? [Archive]

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RIyankee

06-04-04, 01:21 PM

My two questions are:

1.) What is the formula for DIPS?

2.) Is it more indicative of a pitcher's ablilities than WHIP?

Thanks,

-mark

NJASDJDH

06-04-04, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by RIyankee
My two questions are:

1.) What is the formula for DIPS?

2.) Is it more indicative of a pitcher's ablilities than WHIP?

Thanks,

-mark

1. I'll try and find that, I have the worksheet where you just punch in the info.

2. Yes, I think so.

JeffWeaverFan

06-04-04, 03:29 PM

http://www.futilityinfielder.com/dips03.html

I don't know if it is better than WHIP but it is better than ERA.

RIyankee

06-05-04, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by JeffWeaverFan
http://www.futilityinfielder.com/dips03.html

I don't know if it is better than WHIP but it is better than ERA.

Great link!

Thanks JWF. You're all right... for a Jets fan. :lol:

salajander

06-05-04, 08:44 PM

It was this article in Baseball Prospectus that really kciked it all off:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

Voros is now working for the Red Sox, if I recall correctly...

JeffWeaverFan

06-06-04, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by RIyankee

Great link!

Thanks JWF. You're all right... for a Jets fan. :lol:
Anytime. I've gotta make up for being a Jets fan somehow.;)

JeffWeaverFan

06-06-04, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by salajander
It was this article in Baseball Prospectus that really kciked it all off:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

Voros is now working for the Red Sox, if I recall correctly...
Yes, Voros does work for the Red Sox now. Good article by the way.

bakntime

06-07-04, 08:26 AM

I think it's an incomplete metric. Anything that doesn't take into account balls put into play against a pitcher (other than home runs) can't possibly be an accurate representation of that pitcher's ability. What about soft tossing pitchers who don't walk a lot of guys and don't strike out a lot of guys, and don't give up many homers? Pitchers who make guys put the ball in play? DIPS becomes much too small a sample size in those cases.

Anyway, I'm convinced that good pitchers also have a good DIPS precisecly because they have good K/BB ratios and don't give up many homers. Would you look exclusively at a pitchers K/BB ratio to determine how good he is? Of course not. It's a piece of the total picture. As is DIPS. It is not a "single" metric that tells you some significant thing about a pitcher.

GB/FB ratio is IMO also important, and is in its own way defense indifferent. Jeff Weaver in 2003 had a "decent" DIPS, but he had the worst K/BB ratio and GB/FB ratios of his career, which is bad considering his "strength" is being a groundball pitcher.

DIPS can be an intersting little tool, but it's not some "miracle" number that tells you how good a pitcher is. Like I said, any metric that doesn't include singles, doubles, triples, ground outs, fly outs, pop ups, foul outs, etc, is painfully incomplete and open to significant statistical aberration and anomalies.

RIyankee

06-07-04, 12:40 PM

Take a pitcher with alot of Ks, obviously such a pitcher gives hitters a difficult time to make contact with the ball. But DIPS doesn't measure the percenatge of bat contact with every batted ball. For example, if a hitter hits a fly ball but "gets under it", the ball will go higher but it will remain in play and most likely become an out. Logically a pitcher that has movement (as opposed to velocity) on his pitches will throw a "difficult" ball. Another example is the notion that once a ball is hit, the batter, not the pitcher, is responsible for the outcome. Hitters can still make contact but depending on the movement of the pitch, will have to adjust their swing in order to hit the ball. While watching the Red Sox at Angels on TV last week, Pedro Martinez was pitching to Kotchman, and K'd him after Kotchman fouled off about 9-10 pitches. That's a lot of contact and IMO puts a degree of uncertainty in DIPS. Former Pirate Phil Garner once said that a hit is the product of luck because you must hit the ball where there are no fielders. Pedro's BF shows that a pitcher can get lucky while getting a SO.

In conclusion, rather than DIPS, I've come to accept WHIP as the more accurate statistic in judging pitchers. Thanks to all who answered this thread. :)

AngelAstro

06-07-04, 01:58 PM

WHIP is not necessarily a good indicator of pitcher's ability either, at least from year-to-year according to this article:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2579

justin32099

06-07-04, 08:45 PM

I'm not an expert, but in my opinion, metrics like ERA and WHIP tell you what a pitcher has done. If you want to measure a pitcher's contribution in the past, incorporating balls in play is obviously a requirement. But I think DIPS aims more as a predicative metric. The percentage of a pitcher's balls in play that land for hits is more susceptible to luck and chance than the three more skill-controlled outcomes: strikeout, walk, home run.

When I want to know what a pitcher has done, I look at ERA, WHIP, and VORP. When I want to know what a pitcher WILL do, I look at Ks, BBs, and HR--the factors in DIPS.

NJASDJDH

06-07-04, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by justin32099
I'm not an expert, but in my opinion, metrics like ERA and WHIP tell you what a pitcher has done. If you want to measure a pitcher's contribution in the past, incorporating balls in play is obviously a requirement. But I think DIPS aims more as a predicative metric. The percentage of a pitcher's balls in play that land for hits is more susceptible to luck and chance than the three more skill-controlled outcomes: strikeout, walk, home run.

When I want to know what a pitcher has done, I look at ERA, WHIP, and VORP. When I want to know what a pitcher WILL do, I look at Ks, BBs, and HR--the factors in DIPS.

Ditto.

RIyankee

06-08-04, 12:50 PM

Larry Mahnken

06-08-04, 09:49 PM

Here's a worksheet I created to calculate DIPS (http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/files/DIPSWorksheets.ZIP)

Rich

08-28-04, 11:55 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/29/sports/baseball/29score.html

KEEPING SCORE

A Calculator Beats Good Pitching Minus a Defense

By DAVID LEONHARDT

Published: August 29, 2004

If you know the name Voros McCracken, you may not have been surprised by Barry Zito's struggles this year. Just two years removed from a Cy Young award, Zito has an earned run average hovering around 4.50, and a strange concept known as DIPS deserves much of the blame.

As the discoverer of DIPS, McCracken is baseball's version of Copernicus, the inventor of an idea so radical that it defies belief. While noodling with statistics five years ago, McCracken, a former paralegal with a name befitting his mad-scientist ways, seemed to discover a shocking pattern: the pitcher had little effect on whether a ball put in play became a hit or an out.

...

RIyankee

09-07-04, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by Rich
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/29/sports/baseball/29score.html

KEEPING SCORE

A Calculator Beats Good Pitching Minus a Defense

By DAVID LEONHARDT

Published: August 29, 2004

If you know the name Voros McCracken, you may not have been surprised by Barry Zito's struggles this year. Just two years removed from a Cy Young award, Zito has an earned run average hovering around 4.50, and a strange concept known as DIPS deserves much of the blame.

As the discoverer of DIPS, McCracken is baseball's version of Copernicus, the inventor of an idea so radical that it defies belief. While noodling with statistics five years ago, McCracken, a former paralegal with a name befitting his mad-scientist ways, seemed to discover a shocking pattern: the pitcher had little effect on whether a ball put in play became a hit or an out.

...

The PECOTA from 2004 BP predicted Zito would have a down year -. primarily due declining K rates. I still not convinced about DIPS but I think K rates would be a better indicator.

BTW Like Bill James, McCracken is employed by the Red Sox. That team is onto something and it shows.