Sabermetrics Tutorial [Archive]

WiffleWOOD

03-29-04, 11:30 PM

I figured I'd share a bunch of links for people who are interested in getting started in their quest to understand sabermetrics. Reading Baseball Prospectus (www.baseballprospectus.com) each day is a good start, but here are some useful links that should help:

Intro to Sabermetrics:
http://www-math.bgsu.edu/~albert/papers/saber.html

Sabermetric Stats for Every Player:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/

Sabermetric Arguments/Articles:
http://www.baseballprimer.com/

Understanding UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating):
http://www.baseballprimer.com/articles/lichtman_2003-03-14_0.shtml

Sabermetric-minded News Site/Blog:
www.hardballtimes.com

Win Shares Charts:
http://www.baseballgraphs.com/winshares/

SuperMario66

03-30-04, 01:48 AM

I am going to try my best to use this forum as a tool to help get me aquainted with the stats world. I don't really understand a lot of the stuff (nor do I wish to usually), but I am going to try so I can better understand my fellow forumer. :)

AngelAstro

03-30-04, 08:47 AM

Thanks for the links WiffleWOOD. I never really knew where to get the sabermetric stats. Is baseball-reference the only site that carries those stats?

NicktheStick36

03-30-04, 11:04 AM

You can get the basic stats every where (ESPN ect.) and Career stats for almost every player at Retrosheet.org.

As for the more complex metrics, I think Reference has the only comprehensive database. Lee Sinins produces a sabermetric encyclopedia that you can buy online, but I can't find the link for it now.

WiffleWOOD

03-30-04, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by NicktheStick36
Lee Sinins produces a sabermetric encyclopedia that you can buy online, but I can't find the link for it now.

Here's the link for Lee Sinin's:

http://www.baseball-encyclopedia.com/

I'd highly recommend signing up for the "Around the Majors" e-mail list...Lee sends out a daily e-mail with news from around the league, it's fantastic...

AngelAstro

03-30-04, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by WiffleWOOD

Here's the link for Lee Sinin's:

http://www.baseball-encyclopedia.com/

I'd highly recommend signing up for the "Around the Majors" e-mail list...Lee sends out a daily e-mail with news from around the league, it's fantastic...

I had just recently signed up for the email list, it is a great asset. I'm also a fan of the new www.thehardballtimes.com and of course baseballprimer.com and baseballprospectus.com (at least when it was free). Does anybody have Premium? Is it worth buying?

Also, what are some of the good sabermetric books? I have recently read Weaver on Strategy, while not exactly sabermetric, it was a great and interesting read. I have heard good things about The Hidden Game of Baseball by Thorn and Palmer. Is that any good? Any other suggestions?

ACPS

03-30-04, 04:04 PM

The link (http://www.baseball-encyclopedia.com/) I think NtS36 was referring to.

Larry Mahnken's blog (http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/) should be required reading for Yankee fans. He uses sabermetrics a lot.

NJOBP36

03-30-04, 04:07 PM

I've been meaning to get Weaver's book, I just saw it the other day.

The player cards on Baseball Prospectus are great.

Here's another fielding stat: To convert it into the runs saved/lost, you take the (Expected-actual)*.8 http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/cat_defense.php

AngelAstro

03-30-04, 04:11 PM

Weaver's book is a quick and interesting read, though at times it is a little repetitive.

Torre should definitely give this book a read because this Yankee team should definitely be managed as Weaver managed Baltimore, i.e. no hit and runs, no bunting in the early innings, no wasteful stealing and platoon the players that need platooning.

WiffleWOOD

03-30-04, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by AngelAstro
Does anybody have Premium? Is it worth buying?

I do, and yes it's definitely worth it

[B] Also, what are some of the good sabermetric books?

"The Diamond Mind," by Craig Wright and Tom House, is one of the early sabermetrically oriented books, and is great. A bit dense, but a nice read and a nice start on the subject.

And of course the Bill James Abstracts are the bibles...

AngelAstro

03-30-04, 04:21 PM

Which Abstracts are in print?
I believe bookstores have the 2001? Historical Abstract, which was the last published Abstract. But are any of the others still in print?

WiffleWOOD

03-30-04, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by AngelAstro
Which Abstracts are in print?
I believe bookstores have the 2001? Historical Abstract, which was the last published Abstract. But are any of the others still in print?

i'm not sure if they are still in print, but it's not really important. The 2001 is the updated edition, which has the best of the old abstracts with an expanded section on Win Shares and new chapters.

AngelAstro

03-30-04, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by WiffleWOOD

i'm not sure if they are still in print, but it's not really important. The 2001 is the updated edition, which has the best of the old abstracts with an expanded section on Win Shares and new chapters.

Well, I guess that is the next book I'll pick up.

YankeePride1967

03-30-04, 04:37 PM

I picked up the Abstract last month, excellent reading. Question, how recommended is the 2004 Baseball Prospectus?

WiffleWOOD

03-30-04, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by GoRocket
I picked up the Abstract last month, excellent reading. Question, how recommended is the 2004 Baseball Prospectus?

Highly. I got it the day it came out, and have used it literally every day since. It's a great great reference to have. There are some things lacking (no W/L for pitchers, or RBI for batters - of course these are statistics BP doesn't care about, nor do I give weight to, but it's annoying that the book doesn't at least list them), but overall it's a great book.

however, you can get most of the info at www.baseball-reference.com, other than the PECOTA projections and VORP, so if you just need it as a player/team stat reference, you could save the money if you wanted to.

YankeePride1967

03-30-04, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by WiffleWOOD

Highly. I got it the day it came out, and have used it literally every day since. It's a great great reference to have. There are some things lacking (no W/L for pitchers, or RBI for batters - of course these are statistics BP doesn't care about, nor do I give weight to, but it's annoying that the book doesn't at least list them), but overall it's a great book.

however, you can get most of the info at www.baseball-reference.com, other than the PECOTA projections and VORP, so if you just need it as a player/team stat reference, you could save the money if you wanted to.

Thanks, I'll pick it up. I do agree they should list all those stats. And thanks for the link as well.

WiffleWOOD

03-30-04, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by GoRocket

Thanks, I'll pick it up. I do agree they should list all those stats. And thanks for the link as well.

no problem.

markp

03-30-04, 08:33 PM

The first one is light years better than the second one. The formulas are more accurate, and he hadn't begun to feel a need for rationalizing the performance of baseball players he personally liked (the "Greg Gagne Effect") to make them appear as (much) better players than they were while finding ways of demeaning players he, for reasons unknown, doesn't like (the "Roger Hornsby Effect".)

RDFiato51

03-30-04, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by AngelAstro
... baseballprospectus.com (at least when it was free). Does anybody have Premium? Is it worth buying?
IMO, yes. You get access to PECOTA projections online (handy if you prefer the electronic version over the printed book), PECOTA and fantasy stat spreadsheets in Excel, and a lot of good articles, not only about hard-core stat analysis, but also stuff like Will Carroll's Under the Knife (health/injury reports).

Rich

03-30-04, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by ACPS

Larry Mahnken's blog (http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/) should be required reading for Yankee fans. He uses sabermetrics a lot.

It sounds like Larry is going offline for a while. I'll miss his stuff.

Repoz

03-31-04, 03:54 AM

At the expense of coming off schilling ( ETP) for my Primer-mates, you have...

Tangotiger's Index of Primate Studies.
http://www.baseballstuff.com/tangotiger/studies.html

James Fraser's DIPS Index
http://www.baseballstuff.com/fraser/new/dips.htm

and the wonderful work by Jay Jaffe at Futility Infielder
http://www.futilityinfielder.com/dips03.html

( scroll down for master saber-index )

Great to see the new Saber-feature here at NYYFans...

Hitman23

03-31-04, 09:30 AM

I love this forum!! I may not have any input, not versed enough to really contribute, but I'm excited to learn. :cool:

LoneRedSeat

03-31-04, 10:04 AM

BP premium is worth it, especially with their new PECOTA based fantasy baseball system.

WIFFLE - I started a thread in Around the Majors that would fit perfectly in this forum. It's titled: Nomar: PA and Production.
Feel free to move the thread here if you like.

nyyfanatic85

03-31-04, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by Hitman23
I love this forum!! I may not have any input, not versed enough to really contribute, but I'm excited to learn. :cool:

Me too. I'm gradually getting educated on this stuff and it's pretty cool.:cool:

nyybleachercreature

03-31-04, 12:57 PM

Ive looked around a bit for this and can't find it. I was wondering if anyone had a link, or if one of the more statistically inclined people could answer this. What are the general standards for a good season for some of these stats numbers (ie, a .300 BA season is the general rule of thumb for a really good batting season, or under a 3.00 ERA) For instance, I know what numbers such as OPS+ stand for, but I have no idea how good a 130 OPS+ is. If anyone can help, Id appreciate it.

WiffleWOOD

03-31-04, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by nyybleachercreature
Ive looked around a bit for this and can't find it. I was wondering if anyone had a link, or if one of the more statistically inclined people could answer this. What are the general standards for a good season for some of these stats numbers (ie, a .300 BA season is the general rule of thumb for a really good batting season, or under a 3.00 ERA) For instance, I know what numbers such as OPS+ stand for, but I have no idea how good a 130 OPS+ is. If anyone can help, Id appreciate it.

these two links should give you an idea about a "good" OPS+:

http://www.whiterose.org/cluey/archives/005185.html

http://www.baseballreference.com/leaders/OPSplus_active.shtml

as you can see from the second link, above 130 is where the majority of "above-average" hitters are. The great hitters are closer to the 150+ area.

YankeeClemens22

04-01-04, 09:10 AM

Thank you all for this great information! I'm a simple statistics guy... I mean, I spout out all the basic stuff all the time, but these new metrics and measures that I am unfamiliar with are great!

I am looking forward to learning all about this new (to me) stuff.

Thanks in advance for sharing all of this!

-Matt

YankeePride1967

04-01-04, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by WiffleWOOD

Highly. I got it the day it came out, and have used it literally every day since. It's a great great reference to have. There are some things lacking (no W/L for pitchers, or RBI for batters - of course these are statistics BP doesn't care about, nor do I give weight to, but it's annoying that the book doesn't at least list them), but overall it's a great book.

however, you can get most of the info at www.baseball-reference.com, other than the PECOTA projections and VORP, so if you just need it as a player/team stat reference, you could save the money if you wanted to.

I ended up buying it tonight and am glad I did. I have a question though. Do they try to predict injuries? They predict Mike Piazza to get only 289 ABs this year

Dave in MD

04-01-04, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by GoRocket

I ended up buying it tonight and am glad I did. I have a question though. Do they try to predict injuries? They predict Mike Piazza to get only 289 ABs this year

projections are often made off recent years. Piazza did miss a lot of time last year.

WiffleWOOD

04-02-04, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by Dave in MD

projections are often made off recent years. Piazza did miss a lot of time last year.

right, i think the average numbe of PA in recent years is factored in. which means past injury = probable future injury, accorind to PECOTA. i think.

AngelAstro

04-02-04, 09:51 AM

I only plan on buying into one or the other. So, which is better? I'm guessing Online because they have updates daily. Can all the info from the book be found online?

Dave in MD

04-02-04, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by AngelAstro
I only plan on buying into one or the other. So, which is better? I'm guessing Online because they have updates daily. Can all the info from the book be found online?

I buy both. The articles online are worth it. But the book is a great reference tool that I look to throughout the year. Very tough choice.

AngelAstro

04-02-04, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by Dave in MD

I buy both. The articles online are worth it. But the book is a great reference tool that I look to throughout the year. Very tough choice.

But if I have unlimited internet access, could I simply look up anything in the book online? Or are there exclusive items in the book that are not online?

Dave in MD

04-02-04, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by AngelAstro

But if I have unlimited internet access, could I simply look up anything in the book online? Or are there exclusive items in the book that are not online?

I think you get everything but the team chapters. You should get all the players. I like having both.

AngelAstro

04-02-04, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by Dave in MD

I think you get everything but the team chapters. You should get all the players. I like having both.

Thanks for the input. Money's a bit tight right now, so I think I'll go with Premium Online.

WiffleWOOD

04-02-04, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by AngelAstro

Thanks for the input. Money's a bit tight right now, so I think I'll go with Premium Online.

if you buy only one, definitely go with the online version. Like Dave said, you don't get the team chapters, but the daily Premium articles are much better anyway, and you get all the same stats that are in the book.

mrs.roy

04-11-04, 07:22 AM

Thanks a mil, too all, for the links. I going to try to learn something new about the game so I can understand what the heck many are talking about on our YankeeFans.com.

Luvtino

04-12-04, 08:13 PM

Thank you so much for all the info and links WW. Very informative. Good job!! :)

GimeMoMuny

04-21-04, 05:32 AM