View Full Version : Pedro in 2004
DonZimmerRules
02-09-04, 08:51 PM
I once again had to watch Game 7 of the ALCS...NJ popped out leading off the 8th. McCarver and Buck were saying that with all the greatness that Pedro had achieved that he never had that one big game under his belt (hinting that this was the game - with "5 defensive outs to go" :lol: :lol: :lol: )
Anyway...what is your prediction for Pedro's 2004 season??
Mine? 14-4.
incarnadine
02-09-04, 09:03 PM
I say that the Boston bullpen will be better this year, and as a consequence Pedro will have higher win totals. (It's ridiculous that the league-leading ERA won as few as he did.)
I'd say between 15 and 20. Part of this is the difference of Foulke, and part is just regression to mean (their bullpen had some historically bad months, and a lot of bad luck blown saves on Pedro starts).
Four weeks on the DL.
15 wins.
flutie22
02-09-04, 10:05 PM
i think pedro will up for cy young contention again this year. having schilling and lowe pitching behind you has to take some of the pressure off
cubswin
02-09-04, 10:18 PM
18-6. Cy contention, if not win.
Mr. Mxylsplk
02-10-04, 01:44 AM
Originally posted by Rich
Four weeks on the DL.
15 wins.
I imagine he'll get above 15, but I agree about the DL. Pedro often finds his way there, and I doubt next year will be an exception.
Originally posted by Mr. Mxylsplk
I imagine he'll get above 15, but I agree about the DL. Pedro often finds his way there, and I doubt next year will be an exception.
You may well be correct. I came up with 15 wins by averaging his wins/year over the course of his career:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?statsId=4875
yankeegeek
02-10-04, 07:38 AM
10 wins and his season will end in mid- July. He will miss the rest of the season due to an arm injury since he pitched so many innings in 2003.
hugelongtermdeal
02-10-04, 07:57 AM
Originally posted by yankeegeek
10 wins and his season will end in mid- July. He will miss the rest of the season due to an arm injury since he pitched so many innings in 2003.
he threw 187 in the regular season and 28 in the playoffs.
Sandman
02-10-04, 08:20 AM
Originally posted by DonZimmerRules
McCarver and Buck were saying that with all the greatness that Pedro had achieved that he never had that one big game under his belt
I was at the game so I didn't hear those folks. (Probably would have listened to the radio anyway.) This comment is ridiculous. Pedro was spectacular in Game 5 of ALDS vs. Indians in 1999, when he entered a slugfest and completely shut the door.
BombersBlvd
02-10-04, 09:08 AM
18 wins, CY contention. Foulke is a GIGANTIC addition to this staff. The Red Sox offense may not be the same as '04, but they should likely do their job. They say Peedro's arm has been examined and that he's feeling good and ready for '04. If the rest of the division hadn't improved to the degree which they have, particularly us and the Blue Jays, I would imagine that his '04 #'s are capable of being even more successful.
Babe Rules
02-10-04, 01:47 PM
Originally posted by Rich
Four weeks on the DL.
15 wins.
I think that too, and i belive that the pen's improvement will be compensate by lower runs production.
12soriano2B
02-10-04, 02:11 PM
17 wins, era around 2.5 and less than 190 innings. and oh yeah, he will again hit more people than give up homeruns.
yankeegeek
02-10-04, 02:33 PM
Originally posted by hugelongtermdeal
he threw 187 in the regular season and 28 in the playoffs.
Well I guess that he is washed up. 187 in the regular season is nothing great. 28 is over about 4 starts is 7 innings pitched per start. He wasn't this dominant sutd out there. He was getting rocked so ahard by the Yankees he had to bail his ass out of it and try to get tossed. Overrated if you ask me. Your numbers to back it up just prove the point even more.
Originally posted by yankeegeek
Well I guess that he is washed up. 187 in the regular season is nothing great. 28 is over about 4 starts is 7 innings pitched per start. He wasn't this dominant sutd out there. He was getting rocked so ahard by the Yankees he had to bail his ass out of it and try to get tossed. Overrated if you ask me. Your numbers to back it up just prove the point even more.
You said his season would end in mid July and he would miss the rest of the season due to an arm injury since he pitched so many innings in 2003.
He didn't pitch "so many innings" in 2003, so you're wrong about that.
Will his season still end early due to an arm injury? If so, why?
The rest of the stuff you posted is irrelevant.
/oh, to keep on topic.
18 wins, sub 2.75 era, Cy contention.
Going along with the crowd...18 wins, 2.50 ERA, Cy Young contention
Although Foulke is a big difference as a closer, the BoSox still don't have a bridge that will allow them to take Pedro out after 6 to preserve his arm
hugelongtermdeal
02-10-04, 05:24 PM
Originally posted by yankeegeek
Well I guess that he is washed up. 187 in the regular season is nothing great. 28 is over about 4 starts is 7 innings pitched per start. He wasn't this dominant sutd out there. He was getting rocked so ahard by the Yankees he had to bail his ass out of it and try to get tossed. Overrated if you ask me. Your numbers to back it up just prove the point even more.
huh? You said that he "pitched so many innings in 2003" ~ and you were wrong. I was simply correcting you, not trying to prove any other points.
JeffWeaverFan
02-10-04, 08:50 PM
yeah, 2 15 day DL stints sounds about right to me for him, and also for Brown. Both should have around 17 wins by the end of the year.
yankeesrule2000
02-10-04, 10:04 PM
I think Pedro is going to have a big year and will win 19
cubswin
02-10-04, 10:18 PM
Originally posted by MrG
...Although Foulke is a big difference as a closer, the BoSox still don't have a bridge that will allow them to take Pedro out after 6 to preserve his arm
Williamson, Timlin, Embree? Sounds pretty good to me.
AnskyChris
02-11-04, 03:04 PM
Zero wins for Pedro this year.
On March 23rd, at a Spring Training game against Tampa, he makes an offensive remark to Zim. Petey didn't realize that Zim had been training "Rocky-style" all winter to settle the score.
Unleashing a lethal barrage of blows, Zim puts Pedro out of baseball for good.
In his teammate's defense, Manny comes running over with a bat, but Zim flips him over his back kung-fu style and he lands on Ortiz.
So, back to topic....no wins for little Petey.
Bosox Guy in Chitown
02-11-04, 03:25 PM
18 to 21 wins, 2.75 ERA, one 15-day DL stint.
LewFordIsWhite
02-11-04, 04:25 PM
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned this is Pedro's contract year (potentially) and the fact that he has continued to build his muscle mass in his shoulder and seems to be adjusting to that added muscle (which was a problem last year). As for the guy who says Pedro is overrated, his ERA+ the last 5 years: 245, 285, 189 (only 116 IP), 196, 212. That's obscenely good. How can you say that is overrated? He is the leading active pitcher in ERA (in the American league for the last 5 years no less), 50th all time. He's also 2nd ALL-TIME in H/9 innings. But yeah, he's way overrated, heck I'd take Lieber ten times over Petey :rolleyes:
As for the Brown/Pedro comparisons....Brown is a helluva pitcher, no doubt about it. But his ERA+ the last 5 years (just for arguments sake): 148, 167, 152, 79 (injury year), 169. Great, but not Pedro great, even now that Pedro has declined a bit he is still a better pitcher than Brown, and nobody can honestly say Brown is less of an injury risk than Pedro..
So I say Pedro goes 19-5, ERA 2.35
Coming in March...my annual...
What month will Pedro's arm fall off...
looshawn
02-12-04, 08:15 AM
Originally posted by NYYFAN
Coming in March...my annual...
What month will Pedro's arm fall off...
Hmm...sounds to me like some wishful thinking?
Or fantasy?
Or perhaps a bit of praying on your part?
BTW, just how healthy will Kevin Brown be?
For Pedro this year?
How about 20-4, 2.25 ERA (it is his contract year). Not only that, as has already been pointed out, he has a better bullpen now to hold his lead when taken out.
aeromac76
02-12-04, 08:16 AM
Pedro is a great pitcher in every way, shape and form.
That said, I do doubt his ability to pitch the way he did when he was at his best for long stretches again.
Pedro has health issues, no doubt on that. But he also does not seem to have the zip on the fastball he once did.
I look at him as a number 1 type starter, but a couple of years ago, when I would be scoreboard watching and found Boston was throwing Pedro, I was of the opinion that the Sox would win so the Yanks had to to keep pace or they'd lose a game in the standings. The Yankees always handled Pedro well, but when he was dealing against someone else I just assumed a W for the Sox, not so much anymore.
Not to say I think they'll lose with Pedro out there, but I feel it ain't as sure a bet as it once was.
I don't think Pedro will reach 200 IP, and the Sox would be wise IMO to make sure of that.
He could/should still win 15-7 even with some injury issues backed by a still potent offense and improved pen. If he does have a health renaissance, then 20 W is not farfetched at all...
Irabu's Son
02-12-04, 10:17 AM
Originally posted by cubswin
18-6. Cy contention, if not win.
Exactly. He's the best pitcher in baseball when he's not nursing something, which he usually is.
nyyfanatic85
02-12-04, 10:31 AM
Originally posted by LewFordIsWhite
As for the guy who says Pedro is overrated, his ERA+ the last 5 years: 245, 285, 189 (only 116 IP), 196, 212. That's obscenely good. How can you say that is overrated?
The only reason Yankees fans think he's overrated is because the Yanks have proven they can beat him. If we were Tampa Bay fans having this discussion, it'd be very different.
cubswin
02-12-04, 10:48 AM
Originally posted by aeromac76
.... But he also does not seem to have the zip on the fastball he once did.
...a couple of years ago, when I would be scoreboard watching and found Boston was throwing Pedro, I was of the opinion that the Sox would win so the Yanks had to to keep pace or they'd lose a game in the standings. ..Not to say I think they'll lose with Pedro out there, but I feel it ain't as sure a bet as it once was.
...
Re. the fastball, this is true to some extent. Several years ago he regularly threw low to mid 90s throughout the game, hitting 95-96 frequently. The last year or 2, he builds to the mid-90s, and only hits those occasionally - though often in big situations later in games. The remarkable thing is that he has remained as dominant as he has - it says a lot for his other pitches and his capabilities as a pitcher. And, while he may no longer be a guaranteed W - primarily out of lack of duration - there's a very high likelihood he'll either win it or get it to the pen with a lead - probably moreso than any pitcher in baseball. He's not what he was 4-5 years ago, but that's a damn high standard.
yankeeschic12324
02-12-04, 10:57 AM
Originally posted by 12soriano2B
17 wins, era around 2.5 and less than 190 innings. and oh yeah, he will again hit more people than give up homeruns.
Sounds about right...lol.
Linda:NY:
NicktheStick36
02-12-04, 11:46 AM
I'd guess
15-4
2.30 era
looshawn
02-14-04, 06:59 AM
Originally posted by aeromac76
Pedro has health issues, no doubt on that. But he also does not seem to have the zip on the fastball he once did.
...He could/should still win 15-7 even with some injury issues backed by a still potent offense and improved pen.
...then 20 W is not farfetched at all...
aeromac -
Everything you pointed out are indeed facts. Yes, it's true that his fastball is not as feared as it used to be. However, Pedro no longer relies upon his fastball as much as he used to either. He has worked on three other pitches, with one being a pretty impressive curve.
Watch him when he faces the Yanks (or any other team). He'll pitch around the plate, followed with his money pitch for the strikeout.
Also keep in mind that last year there had to be at least four of five games (that I need of) where he was taken out of the game with the lead, only to be blown by the bullpen. Granted, the score was often a 4-2, 3-1, 3-0 type of game, but whether coincidental or not, it seemed when ever Pedro pitched the Sox barely generated any offense.
If he remains relatively healthy, I see him reaching my guesstamite of 20-4, 2.25 ERA.
BTW, if Mussina stays healthy he'll have a great year himself. Myself, I always considered him the Yanks best pitcher. And he seems to own the Red Sox.
derekjeter916
02-14-04, 06:25 PM
Lots of wins, lots of innings (well, comparatively) and a nice big implosion in the playoffs to top it all off.
:evil:
Babe Rules
02-15-04, 08:27 AM
He'll suffer when facing us;)
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