View Full Version : 2010 Brett Gardner Performance Thread
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Yankee Tripper
05-01-10, 09:57 AM
I had real concerns about him being out there every day and so far, he has totally proven me wrong.You and me both
Yankee Tripper
05-01-10, 09:58 AM
I think the presumption being used is that Gardner can eclipse Coleman's .324 career OBP. Also, Gardner's limited slugging actually gives him more bases to steal then a Henderson or Brock, who often got themselves into scoring position with XBH. I don't think it's ROFL material to consider Gardner a threat to steal 80 bags at some point.
Me either - but it is a huge stretch to say he'll have the 2nd best SB per 162 game average in the history of baseball over the course of his entire career.
teknetic
05-01-10, 10:16 AM
I don't wanna move him to #2. If he gets on base, he's an easy bet to get into scoring position and Jeter/Johnson/Tex/ARod are all monsters w/ RISP.
OldYankeeFan
05-01-10, 10:24 AM
Me either - but it is a huge stretch to say he'll have the 2nd best SB per 162 game average in the history of baseball over the course of his entire career.The thing is nobody said that. And just to make sure, I said this in a subsequent post...which can't be more clear the 82 SB was my ceiling for him in A SEASON (not career) and only IF he achieved my SEASON ceiling of a .400 OBP.
IF Gardner does actually achieve my ceiling for OBP of .400 for a season then I believe his ceiling (his upper limit for that season, not what is expected) to be 82 SB if he plays a full 162.
parkerstrong
05-01-10, 02:47 PM
I'm starting to fall in love with Gardner! Just a monster who keeps producing. I've been skeptical-just waiting for his first slump, but speed never goes into a slump. I'd love to see what he can do in the 2 spot (was against it 2 weeks ago) but like him in front of Jeter more-if he gets on base he steals second so Jeter doesn't DP
yet ANOTHER big hit and another very solid game. wow.
ThePinStripes
05-01-10, 02:51 PM
This kid is on a tear.
teknetic
05-01-10, 02:53 PM
I'm not surprised by any of this.
Well, now he finally gets to play in CF where he belongs.
OK, so who do we bring up ?? thames or winn are both terrible choices for LF in anything more than spot duty.
Ichiro! is paid
...to hit .325+ - Gradner does that and he'll be paid some serious coin too.
I am starting to wonder.
OK, so who do we bring up ?? thames or winn are both terrible choices for LF in anything more than spot duty.
We'll almost certainly be playing GardnerCF/ThamesLF/SwisherRF.
Thames is a bit of a butcher in LF but here is hoping his bat compensates.
We'll almost certainly be playing GardnerCF/ThamesLF/SwisherRF.
Thames is a bit of a butcher in LF but here is hoping his bat compensates.
thames in LF makes me start twitching for D and his splits, tho not atrocious, aren't great vs RHP. he certainly didn't look great vs putz. and he's misplayed balls in each of his two LF starts. i guess girardi will call up melancon to try and stabilize the pen, but hopefully they can get an OFer up here in the not too distant future ......... HEY, maybe for vazquez !!!!!!
Just unbelievable. Everytime (so far) his numbers start to come down he picks it back up again.
BA: .323
OBP: .392
SLG: .384
OPS: .777
SB: 10 (assuming 500PAs, on pace for 68)
R: 14 (assuming 500PAs, on pace 95)
I'm not surprised by any of this.
neither am i. when you can outrun weak hits to the infield, you can often pick up some hits when you aren't swinging the bat well. i keep saying that a .345 OBP from him is fine for me and i consider anything over that to be a bonus. i actually think he'll be closer to 50 stolen base this year because guys tend to wear down.
neither am i. when you can outrun weak hits to the infield, you can often pick up some hits when you aren't swinging the bat well. i keep saying that a .345 OBP from him is fine for me and i consider anything over that to be a bonus. i actually think he'll be closer to 50 stolen base this year because guys tend to wear down.
I agree with your last point--it's another of these "April things" we have to bear in mind. Still, there's something about Gardner's swing that bothers me. He still seems to be mainly an upper-body swinger. Well, if that generates a lot of (continuing) infield hits, OK. But I would like to see some more full-body torque in that swing.
BA: .333
OBP: .403
SLG: .391
wRC+: 144
SB: 11
R: 16
his wOBA is No. 16 among qualified OFs, ahead of big names like Josh Hamilton, Bobby Abreau, Jason Bay, Nick Swisher, Matt Holliday, and Ichiro!, mostly on the strength of his .403OBP and SBs.
For this year, so far at least, he's basically Ichiro! (.330BA, .390SLG 104wRC+) with more walks and more SB.
themgmt
05-02-10, 12:46 PM
Don't take this the wrong way but there's really no need to post his season line after every single game.
Rocketman
05-02-10, 01:23 PM
Where did that power come from? That was a bomb.
themgmt
05-02-10, 01:23 PM
Okay you can post his line after that.
A bomb off of a lefty.
THEBOSS84
05-02-10, 01:24 PM
This is ridiculous.
that was hit into the real bleachers. (not the field level ones)
BOMB.
PirateChief
05-02-10, 01:26 PM
hawk harrelson just shat his pants
Derek2HOF
05-02-10, 01:26 PM
Crushed!
Glad he is on both of my fantasy teams!
89FoxBody
05-02-10, 01:29 PM
I don't believe what I just saw.
hawk harrelson just shat his pants
what did he say? :D
PirateChief
05-02-10, 01:31 PM
what did he say? :D
whatever the reverse of "stretch" is.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT
you should take it off the board!!!!
:lol:
btw, if anyone wants to add my Brett the Jet picture to their sig as well, feel free. ;)
SLURPEE
05-02-10, 01:37 PM
He should be batting second.
NYYDragoon
05-02-10, 01:45 PM
:lol:
btw, if anyone wants to add my Brett the Jet picture to their sig as well, feel free. ;)I wish you would make it smaller.
eh? doesn't it show up within the restricted window (with the scroll arrows)?
At some point, we've gotta give Kevin Long a raise for the work he did with Gardner and therapist sessions he had with ARod.
That and all the other work he did with the line up.
Next things up on his to do lists:
Granderson vs. LHPs
Texeira vs. April
Nick Johnson vs. The Bench (and taking bat off his shoulder)
Smaller version for Brett the Jet
http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/200/brettjet.jpg
http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/200/brettjet.jpg
NYYDragoon
05-02-10, 01:58 PM
eh? doesn't it show up within the restricted window (with the scroll arrows)?Yeah so that's the problem.
Smaller version for Brett the Jet
http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/200/brettjet.jpg
http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/200/brettjet.jpg
a bit too pixelated.. looks like a cross between sean casey and jason varitek. thanks for the effort tho, I'll see what I can do.
Yeah so that's the problem.
ohhh, i get it. you're saying you want to see all of it all the time. gotcha. can't blame you. like I said, i'll see what can be done
BA: .342
SLG: .438
OBP: .410
OPS: .848
SB: 11 (500PAs, on pace for 66)
R: 18 (500PAs, on pace for 108)
and
HR: 1 (500PAs, on pace for 6)
:lol:
btw, if anyone wants to add my Brett the Jet picture to their sig as well, feel free. ;)
I've been saying/tpying Brett the Jet lately. It kinda crept up on me.
Sublime.
I also think it's possible that in time he might even develop power.
There have been times where he does a more "normal' swing as opposed to the short slap type and gets very good carry on the ball.
A gapper for him is almost a sure triple
Just sayin....
You've gotta see this to believe it.
I am pretty sure that's the farthest Brett Gardner has ever hit a baseball in his MLB career.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7789359
yankee82093
05-02-10, 04:18 PM
You've gotta see this to believe it.
I am pretty sure that's the farthest Brett Gardner has ever hit a baseball in his MLB career.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7789359
Probably the farthest one he has hit in any game action throughout his entire life.
groovitude
05-02-10, 04:19 PM
You've gotta see this to believe it.
I am pretty sure that's the farthest Brett Gardner has ever hit a baseball in his MLB career.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7789359My jaw literally dropped when I saw how far back in the seats he put that ball.
I've been saying/tpying Brett the Jet lately. It kinda crept up on me.
sorry, now it's BrettYardner !!
Gardner has earned a "permanent" spot here. His D is stellar, and his baserunning, too.
In this lineup (and TBH, in a lot of lineups) you "put up" with his offense (I was going to right O, remembered some of the posters here, and thought better of it :D )
And his offense has improved.
sorry, now it's BrettYardner !!
LOL. Nice :D
This kid's more exciting than Hughes for me honestly.
I mean Hughes is doing absolutely great but he only pitches a 1 out of 5 days (actually less)
snarkerella
05-02-10, 05:00 PM
He cruuuuuushed that ball. It was part awesome and part hysterical.
This kid's more exciting than Hughes for me honestly.
I mean Hughes is doing absolutely great but he only pitches a 1 out of 5 days (actually less)Exciting in tems of fun to watch, or value? Cuz frankly if only one of them can keep up their ridiculous level of production I'm going Hughes 10 out of 10 times.
But I'm loving what Gardner is doing. I've been a supporter for a long time, but he's going bat................ out there.
Exciting in tems of fun to watch, or value? Cuz frankly if only one of them can keep up their ridiculous level of production I'm going Hughes 10 out of 10 times.
But I'm loving what Gardner is doing. I've been a supporter for a long time, but he's going bat................ out there.
If it's just one I am taking Gardner 10 out of 10.
More value because he plays every day and he actually has only 1 year of MLB service time. Hughes goes into arbitration next year.
Watching wise I'll take Gardner too for the same reasons.
It also helps Elias rankings undervalue OBP and SB, keeping Gardner's prices low even late into his arbitration years.
At Gardner's current rate of production, we're talking about all-star appearance and MVP votes. With Granderson on the DL, there is a very good chance Gardner is going represent the Yankees OF at the all-star game (still long shot.)
Hughes is obviously on pace to be in top 5 CY votes (if not very top). Too bad he has innings limits.
roblyo33
05-02-10, 06:48 PM
If it's just one I am taking Gardner 10 out of 10.
More value because he plays every day and he actually has only 1 year of MLB service time. Hughes goes into arbitration next year.
Watching wise I'll take Gardner too for the same reasons.
It also helps Elias rankings undervalue OBP and SB, keeping Gardner's prices low even late into his arbitration years.
At Gardner's current rate of production, we're talking about all-star appearance and MVP votes. With Granderson on the DL, there is a very good chance Gardner is going represent the Yankees OF at the all-star game (still long shot.)
Hughes is obviously on pace to be in top 5 CY votes (if not very top). Too bad he has innings limits.
Please remove your pinstripe glasses.
Do I really need to capitalize, bold, underline, and italicize every "IF" post I make?
Especially when I am responding to an "if" post?
roblyo33
05-02-10, 06:54 PM
Do I really need to capitalize, bold, underline, and italicize every "IF" post I make?
Especially when I am responding to an "if" post?
Yes...
groovitude
05-02-10, 08:59 PM
"Brett Gardner is up to .429 (9 for 21) against lefty pitching and .342 overall. His solo shot off Buehrle was his first-ever in the majors against a lefty. ”I’ve always thought of him as as an everyday player because he hits lefties,” Joe Girardi said."... WTF?
... WTF?
what? he means Gardner's not a L/R platoon player and has never shown bad splits in the minors or majors
Jacoby who?
you do have to say there is a significant chance that brett will end up by far the better player. for a start, he's better in the field and has a better arm. he also can walk a decent amount. i doubt jacoby would ever post a .370 plus OBP without having to hit .330 plus.
BA: .342
SLG: .438
OBP: .410
OPS: .848
SB: 11 (500PAs, on pace for 66)
R: 18 (500PAs, on pace for 108)
and
HR: 1 (500PAs, on pace for 6)
WRC+: 158.
wOBA (base component of WRC+): .411. Ranked 11 out of 74 qualified OFs (he just passed Damon and Crawford)
Incidentally Venon Wells is currently on fire batting with 1.075OPS with 8 HRs. Maybe he finally got tired of being a bum.
OldYankeeFan
05-03-10, 06:54 AM
WRC+: 158.
wOBA (base component of WRC+): .411. Ranked 11 out of 74 qualified OFs (he just passed Damon and Crawford)
Looks like his two months of > .400 OBP last year were NOT a fluke after all, but so far this year what is most impressive to me is his ability to take pitches, work the count and then HIT for BA after taking two strikes and down in the count.
another great play from brett yesterday: his hard slide into second breaking up the DP and keeping alive what turned into a 5-run inning:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/03/sports/baseball/03yankees.html?ref=sports
PAULIEWALNUTS
05-03-10, 08:06 AM
John Sterling does not have a signature call for "Gardie". I was listening to game while sitting in traffic when he hit the HR. I needed a little pick me up but Sterling had nothing. We need a Bret call for Sterling. How about "Gardner plants one!". Can anyone top that.
I'm not going to eat my hat, but the crow is mighty tasty so far.
I'm not going to eat my hat, but the crow is mighty tasty so far.
http://jonreid.blogs.com/oneanother/eat-crow.jpg
.......... bon appetit !!
John Sterling does not have a signature call for "Gardie". I was listening to game while sitting in traffic when he hit the HR. I needed a little pick me up but Sterling had nothing. We need a Bret call for Sterling. How about "Gardner plants one!". Can anyone top that.
:clap:
Yankee Tripper
05-03-10, 10:45 AM
I'm not going to eat my hat, but the crow is mighty tasty so far.
I'm more than happy to join you in a double helping myself. :)
THEBOSS84
05-03-10, 10:48 AM
No one should eat any crow yet. It's May 3rd.
stazsanity
05-03-10, 10:51 AM
Thusfar:
(Brett + Robbie) > (Jacoby + Pedroia)
IronCaballo4
05-03-10, 10:55 AM
Gardy Goes Yardy
OldYankeeFan
05-03-10, 11:09 AM
Thusfar:
(Brett + Robbie) > (Jacoby + Pedroia)By ALOT!
A combined wRC+ of 375 for Brett + Cano - vs - 251 for Jacoby + Pedroia
good to see him generate power...but what's got me most pleased is he's driving the ball into the ground it seems 4 times a game now.
OldYankeeFan
05-03-10, 12:11 PM
good to see him generate power...but what's got me most pleased is he's driving the ball into the ground it seems 4 times a game now.Absolutely. I made mention of this a week or so ago showing his GB/FB rate as evidence that some of his swing changes seems to have eliminated a lot of those lazy little pop-ups to 3B, SS and short RF.
Infield FB
'09 ... 15%
'10 ... 6%
GB/FB rate
'09 ... .1.49
'10 ... 2.18
No one should eat any crow yet. It's May 3rd.
I have a couple of birds on stand-by, but I haven't plucked any feathers just yet for that exact reason.
Snatch Catch
05-03-10, 12:34 PM
John Sterling does not have a signature call for "Gardie". I was listening to game while sitting in traffic when he hit the HR. I needed a little pick me up but Sterling had nothing. We need a Bret call for Sterling. How about "Gardner plants one!". Can anyone top that.
"IT IS HIGH, IT IS FAR, IT IS GONE! GARDNER RAKES THE YARD, AND THE YANKEES GO BACK IN FRONT!
I can imagine him taking a step further if it happens in October and he can reference the leaves falling.
God, I loathe Sterling.
THEBOSS84
05-03-10, 01:24 PM
Brett Gardner is causing Carl Crawford to lose a lot of money.
flymick24
05-03-10, 01:27 PM
Brett Gardner is causing Carl Crawford to lose a lot of money.
that may be, but jayson werth's value will remain unaffected, and he's the yankees' real target, i believe
btw, your sig was a little premature, my friend
THEBOSS84
05-03-10, 01:29 PM
that may be, but jayson werth's value will remain unaffected, and he's the yankees' real target, i believe
btw, your sig was a little premature, my friend
Welcome back homie!
Werth's little nagging injuries this year sure aren't helping him much. Neither is his age.
flymick24
05-03-10, 01:32 PM
Welcome back homie!
Werth's little nagging injuries this year sure aren't helping him much. Neither is his age.
thanks bud, i was sent to my little corner to think about what i did wrong... only time will tell if i learned my lesson :D
werth will probably garner a shorter deal, which is attractive to me.. also, he's just a better hitter than crawford
Yankee Tripper
05-03-10, 01:34 PM
btw, your sig was a little premature, my friend
no, it may be outdated now but not premature. ;)
OldYankeeFan
05-03-10, 01:35 PM
Welcome back homie!
Werth's little nagging injuries this year sure aren't helping him much. Neither is his age.Neither is Gardner's cost controlled everyday play or Montero's huge RH bat.
I think we take a pass on both Crawford and Werth.
THEBOSS84
05-03-10, 01:36 PM
Neither is Gardner's play as an everyday player or Montero's huge RH bat.
I think we take a pass on both Crawford and Werth.
(That was my original point)
flymick24
05-03-10, 01:36 PM
no, it may be outdated now but not premature. ;)
this could very well be the case, but i'll just continue posting balls out and see what transpires... not gonna change my opinions because of one little bump in the road
Yankee Tripper
05-03-10, 01:43 PM
this could very well be the case, but i'll just continue posting balls out and see what transpires... not gonna change my opinions because of one little bump in the roadno my point was you were for a time RO'd, thus theBoss84's sig was correct. It was not a prediction of your eventual demise. :)
flymick24
05-03-10, 01:44 PM
yeah, but i'm back from the dead and ready to do some damage (and by damage, i mean brain damage for those who read my posts)
NYYDragoon
05-03-10, 01:46 PM
Welcome back, mickums. Stop using illegal email addresses, you idiot.
OldYankeeFan
05-03-10, 01:48 PM
(That was my original point) And I agree with it, in addition to Montero's RH bat as reasons to pass on Werth.
THEBOSS84
05-03-10, 01:50 PM
And I agree with it, in addition to Montero's RH bat as reasons to pass on Werth.
We'll just have to agree to agree.
flymick24
05-03-10, 01:50 PM
Welcome back, mickums. Stop using illegal email addresses, you idiot.
sorry, but flymick24@yourethemannowdog.com seemed so legit at the time
www.yourethemannowdog.com
OldYankeeFan
05-03-10, 01:50 PM
We'll just have to agree to agree.Agreed.
Yankee Tripper
05-03-10, 01:51 PM
Next year's one FA signing of note will be CLiff Lee
flymick24
05-03-10, 01:51 PM
Agreed.
you two should get a chatroom and cyber
THEBOSS84
05-03-10, 01:52 PM
You tell me that quite often.
flymick24
05-03-10, 02:11 PM
You tell me that quite often.
agreeing with one another is just a subtle form of foreplay
THEBOSS84
05-03-10, 02:12 PM
I must agree.
flymick24
05-03-10, 02:16 PM
I must agree.
*drip*
NYYDragoon
05-03-10, 02:17 PM
sorry, but flymick24@yourethemannowdog.com seemed so legit at the time
www.yourethemannowdog.com (http://www.yourethemannowdog.com)Pff, so 2005. I would have RO'd you too.
hah, over at RotoWorld, their OF rankings for May have Ellsbury as the #6 fantasy OF in baseball while Gardner is #53
Matthew Pouliot is a big Red Sox homer but I didn't think he'd be that shameless
flymick24
05-03-10, 04:19 PM
hah, over at RotoWorld, their OF rankings for May have Ellsbury as the #6 fantasy OF in baseball while Gardner is #53
Matthew Pouliot is a big Red Sox homer but I didn't think he'd be that shameless
he was factoring in how handsome the players are... surprised ellsbury wasn't higher up on the list
themgmt
05-03-10, 05:11 PM
I'm thinking they will put Granderson in LF when he comes back to "ease the load on him coming off an injury" and they'll just leave him there. Thames can get half of the starts vs lefties for Granderson that way.
PAULIEWALNUTS
05-03-10, 05:54 PM
Glad to see Flymick back in action. Long live perversion and moral degeneration! Keep'm coming Fly.
OldYankeeFan
05-03-10, 06:21 PM
I'm thinking they will put Granderson in LF when he comes back to "ease the load on him coming off an injury" and they'll just leave him there. Thames can get half of the starts vs lefties for Granderson that way.This make a lot of sense to me with Grandy giving up about 1/7 of his PA's (against the tougher lefties). The rest of Thames PA's will be spread out depending who's hot and who's not between Gardner, Swish and NJ.
I'm thinking they will put Granderson in LF when he comes back to "ease the load on him coming off an injury" and they'll just leave him there. Thames can get half of the starts vs lefties for Granderson that way.
I strongly doubt this, and no one would fall for it, but it'd be delicious.
teknetic
05-03-10, 07:20 PM
9BB - 9SO on the year.
parkerstrong
05-03-10, 07:23 PM
I'm thinking they will put Granderson in LF when he comes back to "ease the load on him coming off an injury" and they'll just leave him there. Thames can get half of the starts vs lefties for Granderson that way.
I'm hoping the same thing....one of the reasons why Gardner in LF to start the year might have been to see if he could be an everyday player. Now that it is clear he should play everyday, CF should be his. It seems to me the best lineup versus a lefty is to play Thames instead of Granderson more often than not.....Gardner is currently hitting .409 against lefties. He should never sit against a lefty.
Yankees have so much committed to Granderson they'll probably give Granderson some more time (and it's still May) before Gardner the full time starter job in CF.
Nice catch in the 4th inning Gardy.
parkerstrong
05-03-10, 08:29 PM
Yankees have so much committed to Granderson they'll probably give Granderson some more time (and it's still May) before Gardner the full time starter job in CF.
Nice catch in the 4th inning Gardy.
They may do that and I would understand. I feel the Yankees think Gardner is a better defender (hence the talk about Gardner maybe in CF and Granderson in LF) and didn't want Granderson to switch back and forth between LF and CF if Gardner wasn't to play every day (Gardner in CF, Granderson in LF one day the next day-Granderson in CF, Thames in LF). SInce its clear he will/should play everyday, Granderson can go to LF and not worry about switching back and forth.
Either way I don't think its a big deal. I would rather have Granderson comfortable this year and worry about hitting lefties than learning a new position (reading balls off of the bat).
I'm thinking they will put Granderson in LF when he comes back to "ease the load on him coming off an injury" and they'll just leave him there. Thames can get half of the starts vs lefties for Granderson that way.
interesting thought. funny how a month ago + out of ST it was completely reversed, with CG bumping brett out of CF as it wasn't clear then that brett was an everyday player. that was girardi's big concern, moving granderson back and forth if brett couldn't cut the mustard. now it looks like brett has arrived and may well lay his claim to CF. i don't think they will platoon granderson, especially if he starts hitting with some power, but gives you the option vs funky LHers. or nick may be the odd man out for thames at DH. might simply depend on who's been hitting.
flymick24
05-03-10, 09:27 PM
he's hitting the ball harder... kinda glad he's not slapping the ball the other way with his awkward i-don't-use-my-legs-and-only-rely-on-my-arms swing these days
yeah, it seems that this started a few weeks ago after he had that 3-hit game where no ball left the IF. his stats were pretty good even then but he said he wasn't happy with his swing. as i'm remembering it, things turned around with that big 9th inning line drive to left for the insurance run out in oakland. since then his swing has looked much better, much less slap-happy.
BA: .347
SLG: .440
OBP: .424
OPS: .864
WRC+:161
wOBA: .415 (still 11th)
BABIP: .385 indicates he's lucky but I am pretty sure Gardner is going to be life time .350BABIP or so type of player (his AAA BABIP=.358 and Ichiro, closest comp, also is at .358)
Is there a rule-of-thumb for speed guys performing over an average player's BABIP?
I'm thinking they will put Granderson in LF when he comes back to "ease the load on him coming off an injury" and they'll just leave him there. Thames can get half of the starts vs lefties for Granderson that way.
not convinced of this. i suspect curtis will remain our centre-fielder throughout this year, and probably in 2011 as well. brett, if he's lasted that long, might take over towards the end of next year.
ARoDfan4life
05-04-10, 08:10 AM
BA: .347
SLG: .440
OBP: .424
OPS: .864
WRC+:161
wOBA: .415 (still 11th)
BABIP: .385 indicates he's lucky but I am pretty sure Gardner is going to be life time .350BABIP or so type of player (his AAA BABIP=.358 and Ichiro, closest comp, also is at .358)
Let the record show I always said he would hit better than Jacolby.:o
BA: .347
SLG: .440
OBP: .424
OPS: .864
WRC+:161
wOBA: .415 (still 11th)
BABIP: .385 indicates he's lucky but I am pretty sure Gardner is going to be life time .350BABIP or so type of player (his AAA BABIP=.358 and Ichiro, closest comp, also is at .358)
You should project lower since major league defenses are going to be better, and major league fields are more even and well-kept, making fielding those infield choppers a little easier.
You should project lower since major league defenses are going to be better, and major league fields are more even and well-kept, making fielding those infield choppers a little easier.
I am still comfortable with it becasue Gardner's BABIP was trending up in the minors as well.
He finished 2008 at AAA with .370BABIP.
For him, BABIP clearly is a skill.
I am still comfortable with it becasue Gardner's BABIP was trending up in the minors as well.
He finished 2008 at AAA with .370BABIP.
For him, BABIP clearly is a skill.
on the other hand, major league teams will learn to scout him better and position themselves according to an also-prepared pitching sequence. there are not many baseball players in history with BABIPs over .350... Let's not get carried away.
freebubba
05-04-10, 08:30 AM
brett>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>bubba.
keep it up, one hell of a job anchoring the # 9 spot thus far.
I'd be surprised if Gardner, before he hits 32, clocks in at a BABIP below .340.
Highest OBP on the team.
Derek Jeter has 20 RBIs, second only to Cano's 21. I wonder why.
Which leads me to wonder if Gardner was batting 2nd, what the heck would be going on.
freebubba
05-04-10, 09:06 AM
Which leads me to wonder if Gardner was batting 2nd, what the heck would be going on.
yeah, he can definitely put the bat on the ball and just with his speed alone you wouldn't have to worry about him hitting into too many dp's
parkerstrong
05-04-10, 01:20 PM
Which leads me to wonder if Gardner was batting 2nd, what the heck would be going on.
Not much....A-Rod and Tex havent really hit yet. I'm worried that if he bats 2nd, he would steal less because he is on-base for A-Rod and Tex (Johnson still has a good OBP so far). I like him batting 9th so when he gets on he steals second so Jeter can't DP.
parkerstrong
05-04-10, 01:22 PM
You should project lower since major league defenses are going to be better, and major league fields are more even and well-kept, making fielding those infield choppers a little easier.
I'm not so sure the minor league fields aren't well-kept. With his blazing speed, his BABIP should be higher than the average major leaguer-many balls hit in play at hits for him where they would be outs for guys like Posada,Johnson, even Jeter. I agree with the BABIP around .350-seems reasonable to me.
SLURPEE
05-04-10, 01:24 PM
Which leads me to wonder if Gardner was batting 2nd, what the heck would be going on.You know I've been calling for this.
yankee82093
05-04-10, 03:20 PM
A BABIP around .350 is quite extraordinary. I think that's a little bit much. He doesn't hit enough line drives. If he can maintain his pop-up rate around 5%, maybe he has a shot at a sustainable .350, but if that pop-up rate creeps up to his career rate of 11%, it's makes a lot more sense to expect a .330ish BABIP. Very, very few hitters can sustain a .350ish BABIP. It's too early to ordain him that kind of a hitter.
JavyVazquezIsSick
05-04-10, 03:33 PM
Yawn...
roblyo33
05-04-10, 04:17 PM
Yawn...
QFT....
yankee82093
05-04-10, 05:30 PM
The least of my concerns is to entertain JVIS and roblyo33, both of whom should never respond to my posts, for various reasons.
I'm not getting the hostility directed your way, yankee82093.
It does seem to me that Gardner can maintain a higher BABIP (compared to a normal player) without hitting line drives simply because of his speed - he'll beat out some weak ground balls.
In that respect, Ichiro looks like a favorable comp, and they both hit line drives at a somewhat similar rate. Over his career, Ichiro has a LD rate of 20% and his BABIP is almost .360. Gardner's LD% is around 18 for his career, so a BABIP of .350 doesn't seem out of reach to me at all, even if he maintains his current LD rate.
Looking at fangraphs, Ichiro's yearly BABIP fluctuates like crazy (I saw a .316 and a .399), but his LD% is pretty constant. I didn't look at slower players, but wouldn't it be likely that line drives and BABIP don't correlate as closely for people as fast as Ichiro and Gardner?
yankee82093
05-04-10, 07:23 PM
I'm not getting the hostility directed your way, yankee82093.
It does seem to me that Gardner can maintain a higher BABIP (compared to a normal player) without hitting line drives simply because of his speed - he'll beat out some weak ground balls.
In that respect, Ichiro looks like a favorable comp, and they both hit line drives at a somewhat similar rate. Over his career, Ichiro has a LD rate of 20% and his BABIP is almost .360. Gardner's LD% is around 18 for his career, so a BABIP of .350 doesn't seem out of reach to me at all, even if he maintains his current LD rate.
Looking at fangraphs, Ichiro's yearly BABIP fluctuates like crazy (I saw a .316 and a .399), but his LD% is pretty constant. I didn't look at slower players, but wouldn't it be likely that line drives and BABIP don't correlate as closely for people as fast as Ichiro and Gardner?
I agree with the bold. That's why I said he's capable right now of about .330, which is very, very good.
And you do realize that in modern history, only a handful of players have had BABIPs of .350ish over a large sample size (across multiple seasons)? A sustainable .350 BABIP is an extraordinarily elusive talent, and we don't know enough about Gardner to say he has Jeter/Ichiro type BABIP skill. Ichiro is a bad comp for any BABIP point because he may have some sort of skill that allows him to exceed the normal characteristics of one's xBABIP.
Basically, given how rare it is to have a sustainable .350ish BABIP, is just makes sense to assume a little more conservative estimate for Gardner, probably .330 ish(which again, is very good).
Fair enough. I agree that history doesn't bode well for Gardner, but I tend to think speed has something to do with elevating BABIP. That's why I made the comp to Ichiro. His "skill" may be hitting line drives at a decent rate + consistently beating out choppers and ground balls that are outs for other players. Of course, I don't have anything to back that up other than a hunch right now.
If it's just speed I wouldn't say .350.
He's hitting way too many balls opposite field for it to be an accident.
He's still not ridiculous like Ichiro! but I think it's pretty clear he's hitting opposite by design more than, for example, Carl Crawford, who has career BABIP just over .330.
Yes I know I am going out on a limb with .350 as that really is historically good. Still, I'd be surprised if he doesn't end up with .340+ for the next 4 or 5 years, barring injuries of course.
yankee82093
05-04-10, 09:34 PM
If it's just speed I wouldn't say .350.
He's hitting way too many balls opposite field for it to be an accident.
He's still not ridiculous like Ichiro! but I think it's pretty clear he's hitting opposite by design more than, for example, Carl Crawford, who has career BABIP just over .330.
Yes, he's not ridiculous like Ichiro. On a rate basis, Carl Crawford has also hit more linedrives and less pop-ups than Gardner. More than .330 is a little much to say right now.
jesterno2
05-04-10, 09:42 PM
now 5th in the AL in BA at .346 (cano still #1 at .376).
3 things of note:
1) this is his third season working with kevin long, arguably the best hitting coach in the biz
2) gardner has always had an adjustment period for each level he has played at, but after that adjustment period has dominated
3) there are some very telling stats such as his opposite field %, but i think his contact % and % of swings and misses both near the tops in the majors might be even more important given his speed game.
brett was always one of my favorite prospects to follow and i'm so stoked at what he has done so far this season. obviously his BA won't stay this high but if he can keep his contact % up and stay near the top of the league in SB he will be a force in our lineup.
who wouldve thought that he would be one of the guys carrying our offense so far this season?
jesterno2
05-04-10, 09:58 PM
lol, im a big fan of his and have always thought he would do well but i didnt think he would be one of the guys carrying the offense.
Before the start of the season, I got in a big argument with my dad (we always argue about the Yanks, lol) about Gardner and how I felt like he was more valuable than Melky for what he brings to the Yankees. Brett's making me look prettty prettty prettty smart right now. Should probably consider keeping him at CF full-time.
Before the start of the season, I got in a big argument with my dad (we always argue about the Yanks, lol) about Gardner and how I felt like he was more valuable than Melky for what he brings to the Yankees. Brett's making me look prettty prettty prettty smart right now. Should probably consider keeping him at CF full-time.I honestly thought it went the other way which pretty much makes me wrong...very wrong.
BA: .346
SLG: .436
OBP: .427 (second highest behind Timmy on team)
OPS: .863
SB: 12 (on pace for 67 with 500PAs)
R: 21 (on pace for 117 with 500PAs)
wRC+ and wOBA editted in when fangraphs updates in a few hours.
I had high expectations for this kid but he's been just amazing.
jobasfistpump62
05-05-10, 03:03 AM
I hope he keeps it up so money isn't wasted on Crawford and is used towards Cliff Lee.
parkerstrong
05-05-10, 05:29 AM
I hope he keeps it up so money isn't wasted on Crawford and is used towards Cliff Lee.
I second that motion! No need for Crawford with Gardner/Swisher/Granderson.
StatenIslandYankee
05-05-10, 06:27 AM
I can't believe I'm saying this but he is turning into quite the offensive player.
sweet_lou_14
05-05-10, 07:25 AM
He has far exceeded my expectations to this point. Great job in all phases of the game through the first month.
Seemed like after the HR he was attempting to hit fly balls
When he went back to the short slap stroke he got another hit
OldYankeeFan
05-05-10, 09:52 AM
Seemed like after the HR he was attempting to hit fly balls
When he went back to the short slap stroke he got another hitI think it's all part of his learning process and continued progression. He is finding out what his opitimum swing is in order to hit hard ground balls on left side of the infield, which will utiliize to the fullest extent his greatest asset and help maximize his OBP. I think he is also learning that in a hitters count he can look for a FB in a particular inside part of the K zone and if he gets it, to put his A swing (the prettier one where he uses his lower body) on the ball, as he did when he hit the HR ...an immpressive shot above the field bleachers and into the regular bleachers.
What I have really like about Gardner is his disipline to lay off the pitch in a hitters count if it's not in the part of the K zone he's looking in and in many instances taking strike two...and then being able to conststently hit with two strikes while continuing to work the count which also results some long at bats and eventual walks.
I've felt very strongly in his capacity to make another sizable progression this year and it apprears he's doing it especially in his ability to hit more left side GB and much less left side little dinky pop-ups. He's exceeded even my ("overhyped" to some) expectations.
THEBOSS84
05-05-10, 09:55 AM
I love checking out his numbers every morning. I can't wait to see his WAR when the season is over.
GordonGecko
05-05-10, 09:56 AM
He's exceeded even my ("overhyped" to some) expectations.
Yeah the haters seem to have disappeared ..for now. I'm not worried, they'll show up again when Brett hits a slump
THEBOSS84
05-05-10, 09:58 AM
Brett Gardner: 10 BB's, 9 K's.
I think it's all part of his learning process and continued progression. He is finding out what his opitimum swing is in order to hit hard ground balls on left side of the infield, which will utiliize to the fullest extent his greatest asset and help maximize his OBP. I think he is also learning that in a hitters count he can look for a FB in a particular inside part of the K zone and if he gets it, to put his A swing (the prettier one where he uses his lower body) on the ball, as he did when he hit the HR ...an immpressive shot above the field bleachers and into the regular bleachers.
What I have really like about Gardner is his disipline to lay off the pitch in a hitters count if it's not in the part of the K zone he's looking in and in many instances taking strike two...and then being able to conststently hit with two strikes while continuing to work the count which also results some long at bats and eventual walks.
I've felt very strongly in his capacity to make another sizable progression this year and it apprears he's doing it especially in his ability to hit more left side GB and much less left side little dinky pop-ups. He's exceeded even my ("overhyped" to some) expectations.
Seems like the thumb in jury was a huge factor last year- he's still wearing a brace on it when he's on base.
It delayed his progress
I'd love us to be able to pass on Crawford, keep Brett and use the money to sign Lee
YESSIR!
05-05-10, 10:11 AM
I had no faith in Gardner as an everyday player. I'm still not totally sold on him as an everyday player. But he has been tremendous thus far, and I didn't think he even had a 1 month stretch like this in him. He definitely deserves propers for his play thus far.
THEBOSS84
05-05-10, 10:15 AM
I'd love us to be able to pass on Crawford, keep Brett and use the money to sign Lee
From day 1, this has been on my mind.
OldYankeeFan
05-05-10, 10:19 AM
Seems like the thumb in jury was a huge factor last year- he's still wearing a brace on it when he's on base.
It delayed his progress
I'd love us to be able to pass on Crawford, keep Brett and use the money to sign Lee I agree and have said so since Crawford's name first started coming up last year. In just makes NO sense to me, as the cost differential just blows away the possible results differential. We are just MUCH better off using that money on pitching.
OldYankeeFan
05-05-10, 10:37 AM
Yeah the haters seem to have disappeared ..for now. I'm not worried, they'll show up again when Brett hits a slumpHaha. It will be fun though, to watch them use a "very" SSS slump to prove their point when their primary argument against pro Gardner posters was that we used a (much longer) 284 PA SSS from last year to help project a continued improvement this year.
kongull
05-05-10, 10:37 AM
I agree and have said so since Crawford's name first started coming up last year. In just makes NO sense to me, as the cost differential just blows away the possible results differential. We are just MUCH better off using that money on pitching.
The gap between the difference of Lee and Vazquez vs Crawford and Gardner is the size of the Grand Canyon.
No Brainer decision.
THEBOSS84
05-05-10, 10:38 AM
The gap between the difference of Lee and Vazquez vs Crawford and Gardner is the size of the Grand Canyon.
No Brainer decision.
As of right now. In the offseason, your post would have been pure comedy.
OldYankeeFan
05-05-10, 10:40 AM
As of right now. In the offseason, your post would have been pure comedy.To some.
teknetic
05-05-10, 11:03 AM
I don't think anyone expected Vasquez to be an elite pitcher in the AL, Lee is.
THEBOSS84
05-05-10, 11:07 AM
But on the other hand, who really expected the gap between Crawford and Gardner to be virtually non-existent?
teknetic
05-05-10, 11:11 AM
Well, I expected Gardner to play elite D, steal bases, and post a similar OBP :)
justtxyank
05-05-10, 11:13 AM
I didn't. I am thoroughly surprised by his play thus far, but before we start hugging his nuts I think we should wait to see if he can keep it up.
I didn't. I am thoroughly surprised by his play thus far, but before we start hugging his nuts I think we should wait to see if he can keep it up.
that said, if we hugged his nuts it might help him keep it up.
teknetic
05-05-10, 11:38 AM
I didn't. I am thoroughly surprised by his play thus far, but before we start hugging his nuts I think we should wait to see if he can keep it up.
The BA will go down, but I see no reason for his defense, OBP, and speed to decline.
THEBOSS84
05-05-10, 11:42 AM
The BA will go down, but I see no reason for his defense, OBP, and speed to decline.
Well, as his BA goes down, so will his OBP.
teknetic
05-05-10, 11:42 AM
I knew that was coming, yes that's obvious, but I don't think it'll take a steep decline.
Yankee Tripper
05-05-10, 11:44 AM
Well, as his BA goes down, so will his OBP.careful now stating facts might get you RO'd.;)
OldYankeeFan
05-05-10, 12:15 PM
But on the other hand, who really expected the gap between Crawford and Gardner to be virtually non-existent?I did think Gardners OBP this year would easily be higher than Crawfords career average and my projected wRC+ of 115 for Gardner this year is also better than Crawfords career wRC+ of 112. The only area I expected there to be a gap was their OPS+ and taking into consideration that Gardner can man a more demanding position in CF, the cost difference going forward gives Gardner a HUGE edge in my mind.
flymick24
05-05-10, 12:21 PM
is it wrong of me to still want jayson werth?
THEBOSS84
05-05-10, 12:25 PM
I did think Gardners OBP this year would easily be higher than Crawfords career average and my projected wRC+ of 115 for Gardner this year is also better than Crawfords career wRC+ of 112. The only area I expected there to be a gap was their OPS+ and taking into consideration that Gardner can man a more demanding position in CF, the cost difference going forward gives Gardner a HUGE edge in my mind.
I was on the fence with Gardner. I didn't know what we'd see. For the record, I don't think he's this good. I think he'll end the season with a mid-7's OPS (.360ish OBP) which I would have gladly signed up for before the season.
TEPLimey
05-05-10, 12:26 PM
I was on the fence with Gardner. I didn't know what we'd see. For the record, I don't think he's this good. I think he'll end the season with a mid-7's OPS (.360ish OBP) which I would have gladly signed up for before the season.
This.
TheHugeUnit2
05-05-10, 12:28 PM
I'd love us to be able to pass on Crawford, keep Brett and use the money to sign LeeI'd love to sign Crawford, Lee and Werth to just piss everyone off. haha.
Yeah, I've been a HUGE Gardner fan since 2006 and I think he can sustain some of this and stay a regular in a lineup even like the Yankees.
Yankee Tripper
05-05-10, 12:29 PM
I was on the fence with Gardner. I didn't know what we'd see. For the record, I don't think he's this good. I think he'll end the season with a mid-7's OPS (.360ish OBP) which I would have gladly signed up for before the season.Anything less than a .400 OBP and 100 SB will be a disater season for Brett.
THEBOSS84
05-05-10, 12:44 PM
Gardner....is just ridiculous.
Yankee Fan in Boston
05-05-10, 12:45 PM
Gardner....is just ridiculous.
His performance really screams for us to commit to a long-term, expensive contract for Carl Crawford
flymick24
05-05-10, 12:47 PM
Anything less than a .400 OBP and 100 SB will be a disater season for Brett.
that'd be a good starting point
Yankee Fan in Boston
05-05-10, 12:49 PM
that'd be a good starting point
A good starting point toward a 150 run season
OldYankeeFan
05-05-10, 12:54 PM
For the record, I don't think he's this good. I don't think anyone thinks he can keep up his present wRC+ of 163, but I think it's now safe to say last years .417 and .439 OBP for May and June, were NOT flukes, but looks more like what his "ceiling" months will be. Going forward, "if" he can keep his monthly "floor" OBP to around .350 we will end up with a player that is superior to Crawford. I think he can do it but only time will tell.
you nuke his BABIP by 40 points to .342 and his BA would still be .303, good enough for a .389OBP, nuke it some more to .330 and we're still looking at .380OBP. (with his current K/BB rates, every .001 drop in BABIP translates to .000774 drop in OBP)
So even if we knock out most of the luck elements out, he's still very very good.
.380OBP with 12SBs at this point in the season is enough to get a +defender in CF into all-star games.
PS: hm... be nice if Texi and ARod break out their slumps and Gardner continues to crush. We could have Jeter, Teix, ARod, Cano, and Gardner on the all-star team. Long shot, but I am allowed to dream.
Yankee Tripper
05-05-10, 01:35 PM
As long as he keeps walking more than k-ing he's going to be extreamly valuable.
If he can match Crawford's career .296 AVE he'll be move valuable than Carl because he will always have a higher walk rate than Carl.
OldYankeeFan
05-05-10, 01:37 PM
This.
Nice to see you increasing your obp projection for Brett.
To predict that Brett Gardner will go from being one of the worst hitters in the game to a top 25 OBP guy is a huge overhype...
Haha. I guess my prediction was not such a "HUGE overhype" afterall.
Gonna be close since Crawford does SLG more.
The big differential to make Gardner more valuable IMO is that he plays CF. Doesn't matter too much to us with Granderson but Granderson does need time off.
If Gardner were a pure LF like Crawford, we'd be starting Golson/Winn in CF everyday while Granderson sits on the DL.
So yeah, I think Gardner clearly has more value than Crawford if he can bat anywhere near .300. I think he'll do better than that.
justtxyank
05-05-10, 01:57 PM
Nice to see you increasing your obp projection for Brett.
Haha. I guess my prediction was not such a "HUGE overhype" afterall.
It's May. I mean right now it looks good, but plenty of hitters have had torrid starts only to fall completely off the face of the Earth.
nnysiny
05-05-10, 01:58 PM
batting him 2nd from now on is a no-brainer
TEPLimey
05-05-10, 02:24 PM
Nice to see you increasing your obp projection for Brett.
Haha. I guess my prediction was not such a "HUGE overhype" afterall.
Yes, rehashing my prediction from Spring Training 2009 about Gardner hitting about .340 OBP in 2009 (he hit .345) and my statement that expecting more (.370) in 2009 was unreasonable under the circumstances makes you a genius of Aristotelian proportions.
For the record, my prediction for Gardner for 2010 was .350 OBP.
OldYankeeFan
05-05-10, 03:13 PM
Yes, rehashing my prediction from Spring Training 2009 about Gardner hitting about .340 OBP in 2009 (he hit .345) and my statement that expecting more (.370) in 2009 was unreasonable under the circumstances makes you a genius of Aristotelian proportions.
For the record, my prediction for Gardner for 2010 was .350 OBP.
:roflmao: Nice try... you just don't stop making stuff up.
Please tell me what, if anything, in BG's major league career suggests that he will put up a .360 (nevermind .380) OBP this season. NOTHING.
I predicted .340 last season and - I'm sticking with that for the upcoming season - . I'm ok (not thrilled, but OK) with going with him as our LF or CF based on our current lineup and with the understanding that he will be an above-average defensive player but strongly believe that he is far better suited as a 4th OF for this team.
HAHA... So in Jan 2010 you say "Please tell me what, if anything, in BG's major league career suggests that he will put up a .360 OBP this season. NOTHING" and NOW you predict a few posts back that he'll put up a .360 OBP.
FLIP FLOP of the year.
Do you still "strongly believe that he is far better suited as a 4th OF for this team"?
Yankee Tripper
05-05-10, 03:15 PM
batting him 2nd from now on is a no-brainerIn case you missed it our current #2 hitter was on base 5 times today.
OldYankeeFan
05-05-10, 03:22 PM
It's May. I mean right now it looks good, but plenty of hitters have had torrid starts only to fall completely off the face of the Earth.i don't disagree. It's possible but irregardless of that fact, it is certainly not a HUGE overhype at this point, but rather a distinct possibility.
nnysiny
05-05-10, 03:36 PM
In case you missed it our current #2 hitter was on base 5 times today.
and he has a lower OBP, is MUCH slower and make MUCH less contact. no-brainer
Yankee Fan in Boston
05-05-10, 03:38 PM
and he has a lower OBP, is MUCH slower and make MUCH less contact. no-brainer
For the month of April (except the speed part -- I'll grant you that).
Yankee Tripper
05-05-10, 03:40 PM
and he has a lower OBP, is MUCH slower and make MUCH less contact. no-brainerhe's also got a long track record of posting .400ish OBPs over the course of multiple seasons.
teknetic
05-05-10, 04:11 PM
and he has a lower OBP, is MUCH slower and make MUCH less contact. no-brainer
...and is the better hitter. Amazing!
justtxyank
05-05-10, 04:44 PM
i don't disagree. It's possible but irregardless of that fact, it is certainly not a HUGE overhype at this point, but rather a distinct possibility.
Very true. I'm just trying not to judge what he can do based on this month.
By the way... irregardless is not a word.
This just in: the Brett Gardner bandwagon is full. Ease up.
btw, Gardner leads MLB in 2-strike hits with 18 (before today's game).
he's also got a long track record of posting .400ish OBPs over the course of multiple seasons.
yeah, pls keep nick at #2 until further notice, at least most of the time !! brett has also done a great job of making the back of the lineup more productive, and makes it a more "circular" lineup. if nick starts hitting to career norms, that should settle the discussion.
Brett Gardner isn't trying to slap to the left side... he's trying to hit low opposite field line drives.
BA: .346
SLG: .432
OBP: .430
OPS: .862
SB: 13 (on pace for 69 with 500PAs)
R: 22 (on pace for 117 with 500PAs)
parkerstrong
05-05-10, 07:27 PM
Gonna be close since Crawford does SLG more.
The big differential to make Gardner more valuable IMO is that he plays CF. Doesn't matter too much to us with Granderson but Granderson does need time off.
If Gardner were a pure LF like Crawford, we'd be starting Golson/Winn in CF everyday while Granderson sits on the DL.
So yeah, I think Gardner clearly has more value than Crawford if he can bat anywhere near .300. I think he'll do better than that.
Crawford may slug more, but OBP is more important than SLG. Also we can pay Gardner $400,000 instead of 15-17million for Crawford. Gardner can drop quite a bit and still be a better option because of the salary cost.
ober0n98
05-05-10, 07:30 PM
Crawford may slug more, but OBP is more important than SLG. Also we can pay Gardner $400,000 instead of 15-17million for Crawford. Gardner can drop quite a bit and still be a better option because of the salary cost.
Besides 15-17 for crawford... For 6-8 mil more u can upgrade and get cliff lee :)
parkerstrong
05-05-10, 07:34 PM
Besides 15-17 for crawford... For 6-8 mil more u can upgrade and get cliff lee :)
I'm with you on that....been saying that for a couple weeks now.
You guys really want to sign a 32 year old Cliff Lee to a 5~6 year contract at 110~130 million?
The same Cliff Lee that just missed the first month of baseball?
Yankee Fan in Boston
05-05-10, 07:55 PM
You guys really want to sign a 32 year old Cliff Lee to a 5~6 year contract at 110~130 million?
The same Cliff Lee that just missed the first month of baseball?
Pitching will be a much better investment for this team next offseason than Crawford, whether it is Lee or someone else
Pitching will be a much better investment for this team next offseason than Crawford, whether it is Lee or someone else
I agree, but we'll likely be priced out of the Cliff Lee market unless we lose two of Andy, Hughes, and AJ due to injuries or ineffectiveness.
Then there is the slim chance CC will go down then Cliff Lee can start looking for his penthouse in NYC.
TEPLimey
05-05-10, 08:20 PM
:roflmao: Nice try... you just don't stop making stuff up.
HAHA... So in Jan 2010 you say "Please tell me what, if anything, in BG's major league career suggests that he will put up a .360 OBP this season. NOTHING" and NOW you predict a few posts back that he'll put up a .360 OBP.
FLIP FLOP of the year.
Do you still "strongly believe that he is far better suited as a 4th OF for this team"?
Are you 5 years old?
teknetic
05-05-10, 08:22 PM
I agree, but we'll likely be priced out of the Cliff Lee market unless we lose two of Andy, Hughes, and AJ due to injuries or ineffectiveness.
Then there is the slim chance CC will go down then Cliff Lee can start looking for his penthouse in NYC.
I didn't realize we signed Vazquez long-term.
No, we didn't. But with CC + any two from Andy, AJ, and Hughes would make signing Cliff Lee at the prices he'll command a rather excessive luxury.
We'll sign or trade for someone probably, but I don't think we should committ such a big contract to Cliff Lee. We're going to need the money to pay Cano and Jeter soon.
Yankee Fan in Boston
05-05-10, 08:29 PM
No, we didn't. But with CC + any two from Andy, AJ, and Hughes would make signing Cliff Lee at the prices he'll command a rather excessive luxury.
If Andy retires I wouldn't be surprised at all if we went after him seriously.
You guys really want to sign a 32 year old Cliff Lee to a 5~6 year contract at 110~130 million?
The same Cliff Lee that just missed the first month of baseball?
The guy also has an attitude problem. Not quite "team player" material
ETA: I'm all about the "intangibles" today
I am willing to bet good money that Hanley Ramirez gets shopped this offseason too.
Getting him is a pipedream.
Yes, this was a rather unrelated post to the past oh... 20 posts or so.
I didn't realize we signed Vazquez long-term.
i wonder if cashman has had this nightmare yet, waking up screaming and dripping sweat ........ ??!!
OldYankeeFan
05-05-10, 09:17 PM
Very true. I'm just trying not to judge what he can do based on this month.
By the way... irregardless is not a word.
No big deal but according to Merriam -Webster there is such a word.
Main Entry: ir·re·gard·less
Pronunciation: \ˌir-i-ˈgärd-ləs\
Function: adverb
Etymology: probably blend of irrespective and regardless
Date: circa 1912
nonstandard : regardless
usage Irregardless originated in dialectal American speech in the early 20th century. Its fairly widespread use in speech called it to the attention of usage commentators as early as 1927. The most frequently repeated remark about it is that “there is no such word.” There is such a word, however. It is still used primarily in speech, although it can be found from time to time in edited prose.
However since they go on to say that it is still a long way from general acceptance and suggest using regardless instead, I'll be more careful not to use it in formal writings.
...........I'll be more careful not to use it in formal writings.
that said, "irrespective and irregardless" as a lead-in never goes out of fashion. EG:
irrespective and irregardless of the fact that the starter was cruising, girardi nonetheless removed him for an ill-fated matchup, with expected results.
No, we didn't. But with CC + any two from Andy, AJ, and Hughes would make signing Cliff Lee at the prices he'll command a rather excessive luxury.
We'll sign or trade for someone probably, but I don't think we should committ such a big contract to Cliff Lee. We're going to need the money to pay Cano and Jeter soon.
We have Cano under team control until 2013 and who cares what we have to pay Jeter, it can't be worse than the $23M we're paying him now. I get the impression you have no clue what the teams projected payroll is.
I think you're the one that's lost.
Resign Jeter, Mo, and Andy at current prices, our payroll will already be at 193.95
Assuming we keep paying these 5 minimum wage players (~2.3 million):
Brett Gardner
Aceves
D-Rob
Ramiro Pena
Cervelli
And exercise NJ's option, we're already at 201.5million.
Assuming we want to keep payroll steady (a stated goal), that leaves us just under 12 million to replace, resign, or pay for arbitration
Javier Vazquez
Chan-Ho Park
Randy Winn
Marcus Thames
Sergio Mitre (hopefully pitches well enough to get a raise)
Boone Logan
Joba Chamberlain (hopefully pitches well enough to get 1 million + raise)
Phil Hughes (hopefully pitches well enough to get 2 million + raise)
So no, we really don't have that much money left unless you think we're going to raise payroll by ~10 million, probably more, unless you get a really back-end loaded contract for cliff lee to defer the payroll.
Even if Andy retires, it will be a bit of a stretch.
DEADSOX
05-05-10, 09:49 PM
I'm happy to say I've been pro-Gardner since the beginning and was a big advocate while many weren't.
ISo no, we really don't have that much money left unless you think we're going to raise payroll by ~10 million, probably more, unless you get a really back-end loaded contract for cliff lee to defer the payroll.
.......... well, damon's 2/$26MM, and matsui's another $6.5MM .............. (:)) .........
themgmt
05-05-10, 09:50 PM
I don't think your math adds up.
OldYankeeFan
05-05-10, 10:14 PM
Are you 5 years old? You've been giving me nothing but crap for well over a year on my projections for Gardner. Earlier THIS year when I projected a .360 OBP for Gardner you responded with ...
"Please tell me what, if anything, in BG's major league career suggests that he will put up a .360 OBP this season. NOTHING"
I predicted .340 last season and I'm sticking with that for the upcoming season . I'm ok (not thrilled, but OK) with going with him as our LF or CF based on our current lineup and with the understanding that he will be an above-average defensive player but strongly believe that he is far better suited as a 4th OF for this team.
Now when it is obvious that he has become much more than a 4th OF for this team and he most very likely will surpass the .340 OBP you clearly predicted for this year you try sneaking onto the .360 bandwagon, the same .360 I predicted and you so strongly called me out on back in January. So when I bring the flip flop to your attention you say you originally predicted .350 for him this year. When I called you out on that fallicy you respond with the very mature...Are you 5 year old?
Well done.
teknetic
05-05-10, 10:26 PM
No, we didn't. But with CC + any two from Andy, AJ, and Hughes would make signing Cliff Lee at the prices he'll command a rather excessive luxury.
We'll sign or trade for someone probably, but I don't think we should committ such a big contract to Cliff Lee. We're going to need the money to pay Cano and Jeter soon.
I don't worry about the duration of Lee's contract. He's a guy who projects to age well.
I don't worry about the duration of Lee's contract. He's a guy who projects to age well.
True, and I could live with it if we do sign him to something like 115/5 but I suspect he'll command more.
I mean Cliff Lee is awesome, but he's not Roy Halladay.
I really think a reliably league average (mediocre if you want to use that word) starter like Kevin Millwood on a one year contract for like 8 or 9 million would be a better fit for us.
THEBOSS84
05-05-10, 11:16 PM
grizy, we don't have to worry about a contract for Cano until after the 2013 season. That's 3 full seasons after this one.
11:$10M, 12:$14M club option ($2M buyout), 13:$15M club option ($2M buyout)
Cano's getting substantial raises and Lee's next contract will take him to 2015 at least.
THEBOSS84
05-05-10, 11:22 PM
Cano's getting substantial raises and Lee's next contract will take him to 2015 at least.
I think the AJ/Lackey deal gets Lee locked up.
Lol. You're crazy.
Cliff Lee will get paid, like he should, like a 200IP 125ERA+ starter, not the 105~115ERA+ that AJ and Lackey put up year after year.
110/5 is starting bid and it won't get it done.
I'd be positively shocked if he gets less than 110/6, and surprised if he gets less than 110/5.
Barring injuries and serious tanking of course.
THEBOSS84
05-05-10, 11:30 PM
He's not getting $20M+ annually. I don't even see who'd pay him like that.
The Yanks don't *need* him. The Sox are set. The Tigers, Mariners, Phillies, White Sox (Peavy) and Mets all have pitchers making mega bucks and can't risk another pitcher with that type of deal. The Dodgers are a mess. Where is this deal coming from? He'll be 32 at the start of next season and he's had one great year and one very good year in his career.
flymick24
05-05-10, 11:39 PM
the past two off-seasons have shown that the market has changed irreparably... cliff lee will not be getting CC money
Rocketman
05-05-10, 11:41 PM
He's not getting $20M+ annually. I don't even see who'd pay him like that.
The Yanks don't *need* him. The Sox are set. The Tigers, Mariners, Phillies, White Sox (Peavy) and Mets all have pitchers making mega bucks and can't risk another pitcher with that type of deal. The Dodgers are a mess. Where is this deal coming from? He'll be 32 at the start of next season and he's had one great year and one very good year in his career.
I agree with this assessment. Cliff Lee is _not_ CC Sabathia or even Johan Santana. Why not? First... age. Santana was a free agent before his age 29 season. Previous to that, he DOMINATED the American League for five consecutive years, leading the league in Ks 3 times in a row (200K four times consecutively). Before his free agency, he had led the American League (yeah, the league with Roy Halladay) in WHIP 4 consecutive times. Again, he wasn't yet 29.
Sabathia was not yet 28 when he reached free agency. He had put together completely dominating 26 and 27 year-old seasons, winning the AL Cy Young and the "MLB Cy Young" in 2008 when he traded leagues. He was also a lefty who was among league leaders every year in highest average fastball velocity and, like Santana, he walked no one.
On the other hand, Cliff Lee will be 32 next season. He has never struck out more than 181. He has only had one dominating season and one very good one. He's been injured before.
He's a great pitcher, but he won't get a contract like the younger, harder throwing, more accomplished lefties that you're comparing him to.
I don't know where. But when you start talking about premier FAs like Lee teams have funny ways of coughing up the money.
Tigers, Mariners, White Sox, and Dodgers (not Mets, they got virtually nothing coming off) all have enough to sign Cliff Lee if they wanted him badly enough.
Quite frankly, all of them can use him, especially the Dodgers (Lee would end up taking Hiroki Kuroda's spot most like. His spot and 15.4 million salary)
CC was also signed (good timing for us) in probably the most uncertain economic climate in the past 20 years. That worked in our favor IMO.
I think you're the one that's lost.
Resign Jeter, Mo, and Andy at current prices, our payroll will already be at 193.95
You're assuming we're going to pay Jeter $22.6m AAV on his next contract? Seriously? :D
If we sign Lee why are we going to pay Andy $12m to be our 5th starter?
So lets see, that's about $20m you manufactured for the sake of your dumb argument.
Assuming we keep paying these 5 minimum wage players (~2.3 million):
Brett Gardner
Aceves
D-Rob
Ramiro Pena
Cervelli
$2.3m, not even worth mentioning.
And exercise NJ's option, we're already at 201.5million.
Considering Posada's declining defensive abilities and our bevy of catching talent in the minors, why would we?
Assuming we want to keep payroll steady (a stated goal), that leaves us just under 12 million to replace, resign, or pay for arbitration
Javier Vazquez
Chan-Ho Park
Randy Winn
Marcus Thames
Sergio Mitre (hopefully pitches well enough to get a raise)
Boone Logan
Joba Chamberlain (hopefully pitches well enough to get 1 million + raise)
Phil Hughes (hopefully pitches well enough to get 2 million + raise)
Heaven forbid we don't save enough money to re-sign Vazquez, Park, Winn, Thames, and Logan.
So no, we really don't have that much money left unless you think we're going to raise payroll by ~10 million, probably more, unless you get a really back-end loaded contract for cliff lee to defer the payroll.
Even if Andy retires, it will be a bit of a stretch.
Yup, start with some made up number that doesn't even pass the sniff test, bolster it with a bunch of crap that's not even worth mentioning, and then agree with yourself in a stupid, thoughtless conclusion.
What numbers did I make up? Do you really think Jeter is taking a paycut if he continues to bat .315 and 127OPS+?
Or Mo taking a paycut?
Or Andy taking a paycut if he pitches 180IPs at about 100ERA+? If he doesn't pitch that, we'll need to replace him too, not just Vazquez. Cliff Lee is great, but he can't fill two rotation spots.
Even if you fill all those people I listed with players at minimum wage, we're still looking at 3 million. That leaves us with 9 (14.5 if you buy NJ out, which would not get it done) to sign Cliff Lee.
So, to keep payroll steady and sign Cliff Lee two out of three things need to happen:
1. Hughes+Joba bomb and get nothing in arb.
2. We buy out Nick Johnson's option (which would be unwise, even with Posada getting more time at DH)
3. Andy/Mo/Jeter take paycuts.
And even then we'll probably have to hike the payroll to make it happen.
That and quite honestly I don't want to see a Yankees team with 9 players on league minimum. Yes, 4, 5, or even 6 of them will be homegrown talents. But past that we're starting to get to replacement level players that really don't belong on a contending team's roster.
You make assertions that we have money. And I am telling you the cold hard numbers don't bear it out. Cashman has been building this team to win now and he's been spending 2011 money already to make it happen (Cano, Granderson, Teix, and Swisher combined will get 8.5 million in raises)
So, what is it gonna be? Jeter/Mo/Andy bomb so they get paycuts? Or Hughes/Joba bomb so they don't get raises?
Without at least one of those happening, we'll need to hike payroll substantially or defer a lot of money to make a contract with Cliff Lee happen.
What numbers did I make up? Do you really think Jeter is taking a paycut if he continues to bat .315 and 127OPS+?
Or Mo taking a paycut?
Or Andy taking a paycut if he pitches 180IPs at about 100ERA+? If he doesn't pitch that, we'll need to replace him too, not just Vazquez. Cliff Lee is great, but he can't fill two rotation spots.
Even if you fill all those people I listed with players at minimum wage, we're still looking at 3 million. That leaves us with 9 (14.5 if you buy NJ out, which would not get it done) to sign Cliff Lee.
So, to keep payroll steady and sign Cliff Lee two out of three things need to happen:
1. Hughes+Joba bomb and get nothing in arb.
2. We buy out Nick Johnson's option (which would be unwise, even with Posada getting more time at DH)
3. Andy/Mo/Jeter take paycuts.
And even then we'll probably have to hike the payroll to make it happen.
That and quite honestly I don't want to see a Yankees team with 9 players on league minimum. Yes, 4, 5, or even 6 of them will be homegrown talents. But past that we're starting to get to replacement level players that really don't belong on the Yankees roster.
Yup, start with some made up number that doesn't even pass the sniff test, bolster it with a bunch of crap that's not even worth mentioning, and then agree with yourself in a stupid, thoughtless conclusion.
What's not worth mentioning? You really think we can run around with 17 people on the active roster or not pay people to fill it to 25?
Money is money. We're talking about margins, too bad we need that money on the margins to sign Cliff Lee.
All else being equal, I drool after a CC/Lee/Hughes/AJ/Andy rotation as much as any baseball fan would. But all else is not equal. Much of our financial advantage has already been spent.
What's not worth mentioning? You really think we can run around with 17 people on the active roster or not pay people to fill it to 25?
Money is money. We're talking about margins, too bad we need that money on the margins to sign Cliff Lee.
Oh, I think we can pay them all but that's because I don't live in Grizy fantasyland where Cliff Lee gets paid CC money and 36 year old Derek Jeter gets $22.6m :D
Cliff Lee, at minimum, will bank 18AAV, and we can't even pay that much without hiking payroll.
If you think Jeter is taking a paycut to anything below 20 million at his current level of production, you're delusional. Even if he does take 2 or 3 million AAV paycut, much of that will go straight to paying for Hughes and Joba's arbitration.
The numbers just don't add up without some really bad things happening making it possible to lower our financial commitment to Jeter/Mo/Andy and/or Hughes/Joba.
Either that or Cashman gets Hal really drunk and okay with another payroll hike.
You say we wont' sign Andy if we get Cliff Lee... okay, so who do you want for our 5th starter to take Vazquez spot?
Unless you want to use an unproven prospect or the likes of Sidney Ponson, we're looking at the Kevin Millwood/Vincente Padilla types and their 5~8 million.
Cliff Lee, at minimum, will bank 18AAV, and we can't even pay that much without hiking payroll.
Far cry from your earlier claims of him commanding more than $23m :D
If you think Jeter is taking a paycut to anything below 20 million at his current level of production, you're delusional. Even if he does take 2 or 3 million AAV paycut, much of that will go straight to paying for Hughes and Joba's arbitration.
No, no, you're delusional (see above).
The numbers just don't add up without some really bad things happening making it possible to lower our financial commitment to Jeter/Mo/Andy and/or Hughes/Joba.
The numbers don't add up because you're the one adding them. Oh, and there you go with Andy again.
Either that or Cashman gets Hal really drunk and okay with another payroll hike.
Maybe Cash will have you hang out with him.
I only said 18 million (it will not get it done, I am willing to bet very good money on this) to illustrate even in your dream world it does not happen.
So what do you think Jeter's getting paid?
You really think Jeter is gonna drop below 20 million with Cano due to make 14 in '12 and 15 in '13? With Arod at 30 and Teix at 22.5? Please. Keep in mind ARod's contract still pays him 20 million at the age of 41.
You say we wont' sign Andy if we get Cliff Lee... okay, so who do you want for our 5th starter to take Vazquez spot?
With a rotation of CC, CLee, AJ, and Hughes I don't really give a damn.
Unless you want to use an unproven prospect or the likes of Sidney Ponson, we're looking at the Kevin Millwood/Vincente Padilla types and their 5~8 million.
You mean an unproven like Hughes was this year? Heaven forbid.
I only said 18 million (it will not get it done, I am willing to bet very good money on this) to illustrate even in your dream world it does not happen.
Dream world is exactly how I would describe your view of everything related to this discussion.
Have you even tried adding the numbers up?
With absolutely nothing else, even if we offer nobody arbitration and don't resign any of the FAs, we're already at 144.6 million according to cot's.
That gets us a grand total of 9 players (10, if you want Kei Igawa on the 25).
You sign Jeter (say 20) and Mo (15) and we're already at 179.6. Even if Jeter takes a bigger paycut, we're still looking at 177 (putting Jeter 17.4 already) to fill 14 spots on the roster.
Say Cliff Lee goes for 18 million (I think he'll get more) we're at 195 (even if Andy retires and Jeter takes a big paycut like you think he will).
Even if you fill all other 13 slots with minimum wage players (meaning no Hughes and no Joba, because they won't be minimum wage), we're already looking at about 201 million.
Now, let's just say we give Joba and Hughes a little more than a million a pop in arbitration (they, especially Hughes, will get more, potentially a LOT more in Hughes' case, if they have good 2010s), we're left with 10 million to upgrade 11 spots on the roster (one of which will be a starter). It also leaves us with no insurance policy if one of the starters go down or bomb.
So to make this happen we need to lose Andy+Nick Johnson and Jeter has to agree to a substantial paycut. And even then we'll be looking at a situation where we won't have much money left to upgrade other parts of the team.
You know what would really help making Cliff Lee contract happen? Trading Kei Igawa and his 4 million. Marte and his 4 million would work too. Potentially we could trade Granderson/Swisher as well but that would leave holes in the OF.
ober0n98
05-06-10, 03:08 AM
Before u guys go further in arguing the contract issue, remember that cashman goes by AAV and i hope that during your arguments that you used AAV numbers, not yearly numbers...
parkerstrong
05-06-10, 06:50 AM
2. We buy out Nick Johnson's option (which would be unwise, even with Posada getting more time at DH)
If Montero is ready, Nick Johnson is gone. That is the issue (I feel) with Johnson-if Montero is ready he splits time with C/DH with Posada; if not Johnson will come back as 3/4 time DH.
I think Lee will get 18-20million a season. I do agree that there are few teams that won't be willing to spend that much money. It would be CRAZY for the Yankees (or anyone for that matter) to pay him the same as CC (23).
Yankee Fan in Boston
05-06-10, 07:40 AM
Have you even tried adding the numbers up?
With absolutely nothing else, even if we offer nobody arbitration and don't resign any of the FAs, we're already at 144.6 million according to cot's.
That gets us a grand total of 9 players (10, if you want Kei Igawa on the 25).
You sign Jeter (say 20) and Mo (15) and we're already at 179.6. Even if Jeter takes a bigger paycut, we're still looking at 177 (putting Jeter 17.4 already) to fill 14 spots on the roster.
Say Cliff Lee goes for 18 million (I think he'll get more) we're at 195 (even if Andy retires and Jeter takes a big paycut like you think he will).
Even if you fill all other 13 slots with minimum wage players (meaning no Hughes and no Joba, because they won't be minimum wage), we're already looking at about 201 million.
Now, let's just say we give Joba and Hughes a little more than a million a pop in arbitration (they, especially Hughes, will get more, potentially a LOT more in Hughes' case, if they have good 2010s), we're left with 10 million to upgrade 11 spots on the roster (one of which will be a starter). It also leaves us with no insurance policy if one of the starters go down or bomb.
So to make this happen we need to lose Andy+Nick Johnson and Jeter has to agree to a substantial paycut. And even then we'll be looking at a situation where we won't have much money left to upgrade other parts of the team.
You know what would really help making Cliff Lee contract happen? Trading Kei Igawa and his 4 million. Marte and his 4 million would work too. Potentially we could trade Granderson/Swisher as well but that would leave holes in the OF.
I think there is a good chance Pettitte retires, and that that is the catalyst to get Lee. If not, then, we'll see. I also agree that NJ is gone -- that's the benefit of an improved farm system -- you balance the exorbitant contracts with cheap young guys.
Yankee Fan in Boston
05-06-10, 07:40 AM
Before u guys go further in arguing the contract issue, remember that cashman goes by AAV and i hope that during your arguments that you used AAV numbers, not yearly numbers...
Bingo. This is what the luxury tax is calculated on, and what matters most.
Have you even tried adding the numbers up?
With absolutely nothing else, even if we offer nobody arbitration and don't resign any of the FAs, we're already at 144.6 million according to cot's.
That gets us a grand total of 9 players (10, if you want Kei Igawa on the 25).
You sign Jeter (say 20) and Mo (15) and we're already at 179.6. Even if Jeter takes a bigger paycut, we're still looking at 177 (putting Jeter 17.4 already) to fill 14 spots on the roster.
Say Cliff Lee goes for 18 million (I think he'll get more) we're at 195 (even if Andy retires and Jeter takes a big paycut like you think he will).
Even if you fill all other 13 slots with minimum wage players (meaning no Hughes and no Joba, because they won't be minimum wage), we're already looking at about 201 million.
Now, let's just say we give Joba and Hughes a little more than a million a pop in arbitration (they, especially Hughes, will get more, potentially a LOT more in Hughes' case, if they have good 2010s), we're left with 10 million to upgrade 11 spots on the roster (one of which will be a starter). It also leaves us with no insurance policy if one of the starters go down or bomb.
So to make this happen we need to lose Andy+Nick Johnson and Jeter has to agree to a substantial paycut. And even then we'll be looking at a situation where we won't have much money left to upgrade other parts of the team.
You know what would really help making Cliff Lee contract happen? Trading Kei Igawa and his 4 million. Marte and his 4 million would work too. Potentially we could trade Granderson/Swisher as well but that would leave holes in the OF.
I would love to see you present a 25 man roster (and Igawa's 4m) that prohibits signing Lee. And please, don't include your idiotic projections of $23m+ for Lee and $22.6m for Jeter. :-rofl-:
THEBOSS84
05-06-10, 09:14 AM
I would love to see you present a 25 man roster (and Igawa's 4m) that prohibits signing Lee. And please, don't include your idiotic projections of $23m+ for Lee and $22.6m for Jeter. :-rofl-:
Without knowing the Yankee's cap, how would he do that?
TEPLimey
05-06-10, 09:16 AM
You've been giving me nothing but crap for well over a year on my projections for Gardner. Earlier THIS year when I projected a .360 OBP for Gardner you responded with ...
"Please tell me what, if anything, in BG's major league career suggests that he will put up a .360 OBP this season. NOTHING"
I predicted .340 last season and I'm sticking with that for the upcoming season . I'm ok (not thrilled, but OK) with going with him as our LF or CF based on our current lineup and with the understanding that he will be an above-average defensive player but strongly believe that he is far better suited as a 4th OF for this team.
Now when it is obvious that he has become much more than a 4th OF for this team and he most very likely will surpass the .340 OBP you clearly predicted for this year you try sneaking onto the .360 bandwagon, the same .360 I predicted and you so strongly called me out on back in January. So when I bring the flip flop to your attention you say you originally predicted .350 for him this year. When I called you out on that fallicy you respond with the very mature...Are you 5 year old?
Well done.
Your sanctimonious posts are as tiring as your daily MBing over Brett Gardner for the past 2 seasons.
I stand by my statement that there was nothing in his big league career to suggest that Gardner could sustain an OBP over .360 (or .380, as you predicted) on a regular basis. Brett has had a great start this season and has surprised me, along with almost everyone else on these boards, with his success. I'm pleased to see him prove me wrong, but have reservations that he is going to maintain anywhere near this level of success throughout the year. I hope he does, notwithstanding the fact that everyone on the boards will have to hear you tooting your own horn as a result.
And cut the crap with the "I responded to your prediction with..." I made that post on a thread before you posted anything, so please stop trying to pass it off as if I had painted you with a scarlet letter for your bold prediction when I did nothing of the sort.
Rather, my only gripe with you then was that you later claimed that his bunting drills would add "10-20 OBP" to his numbers (http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=6587295&postcount=172) and I thought that was ridiculous. (You can note your .380 OBP prediction there). And, for the record, his improved success has nothing to do with improved bunting.
And, by the way, on March 31 I stated that "I'm in the camp that doesn't project Gardner to OBP much higher than .350 this season," so please stop with your BS about the Gardner "bandwagon." I must have missed the memo where you were grand Poo-bah of the Brett Gardner .360 OBP percentage club and that I would need an application to apply to raising my prediction a handful of points due to his hot start. He has played well in ~100 PAs and, should he maintain an OBP above .365, he should remain a valuable starter on this team - which has been my position since ST. Please get over yourself.
TEPLimey
05-06-10, 09:27 AM
By the way, if you want to further continue this discussion, please PM me rather than continue to subject the forum to this foolishness.
OldYankeeFan
05-06-10, 09:28 AM
Your sanctimonious posts are as tiring as your daily MBing over Brett Gardner for the past 2 seasons.
I stand by my statement that there was nothing in his big league career to suggest that Gardner could sustain an OBP over .360 (or .380, as you predicted) on a regular basis. Brett has had a great start this season and has surprised me, along with almost everyone else on these boards, with his success. I'm pleased to see him prove me wrong, but have reservations that he is going to maintain anywhere near this level of success throughout the year. I hope he does, notwithstanding the fact that everyone on the boards will have to hear you tooting your own horn as a result.
And cut the crap with the "I responded to your prediction with..." I made that post on a thread before you posted anything, so please stop trying to pass it off as if I had painted you with a scarlet letter for your bold prediction when I did nothing of the sort.
Rather, my only gripe with you then was that you later claimed that his bunting drills would add "10-20 OBP" to his numbers (http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=6587295&postcount=172) and I thought that was ridiculous. (You can note your .380 OBP prediction there). And, for the record, his improved success has nothing to do with improved bunting.
And, by the way, on March 31 I stated that "I'm in the camp that doesn't project Gardner to OBP much higher than .350 this season," and on so please stop with your BS about the Gardner "bandwagon." I must have missed the memo where you were grand Poo-bah of the Brett Gardner .360 OBP percentage club and that I would need an application to apply to raising my prediction a handful of points due to his hot start. He has played well in ~100 PAs and, should he maintain an OBP above .365, he should remain a valuable starter on this team - which has been my position since ST. Please get over yourself.
You penchant for changing and distorting facts is becoming legendary. Irregardless of that....
Welcome Aboard!
I would love to see you present a 25 man roster (and Igawa's 4m) that prohibits signing Lee. And please, don't include your idiotic projections of $23m+ for Lee and $22.6m for Jeter. :-rofl-:
I didn't, I used 18 and 17.4 for Lee and Jeter and the numbers still don't add up. And there is very little chance either goes that low.
Even with the most optimistic projections you seem to imply:
Lee for 18
Jeter for 17.4
Mo for 15
Hughes and Chamberlain only getting 1 million raise each (this would be a bad thing, as that would imply they had okay seasons instead of good ones, and would actually necessitate signing other pitchers)
That leaves ~15 million compared to 2010, chances are less, since Hughes will probably (and hopefully) get a bigger raise than 1 million.
At this point, our rotation is CC, Lee, Hughes, AJ. Pen=Mo and Marte. That leaves us with a starter and 5 reliever jobs to pay for. That and 5 bench players.
Getting all that done with 15 million is possible, but you won't like the names that end up filling those spots.
Again, signing Lee without a salary hike can't happen. Even if it does, it would hamstring our ability at least in 2011 to plug other holes that will inevitably come up due to either injuries or ineffectiveness.
Yankee Fan in Boston
05-06-10, 01:01 PM
I didn't, I used 18 and 17.4 for Lee and Jeter and the numbers still don't add up. And there is very little chance either goes that low.
Even with the most optimistic projections you seem to imply:
Lee for 18
Jeter for 17.4
Mo for 15
Hughes and Chamberlain only getting 1 million raise each (this would be a bad thing, as that would imply they had okay seasons instead of good ones, and would actually necessitate signing other pitchers)
That leaves ~15 million compared to 2010, chances are less, since Hughes will probably (and hopefully) get a bigger raise than 1 million.
At this point, our rotation is CC, Lee, Hughes, AJ. Pen=Mo and Marte. That leaves us with a starter and 5 reliever jobs to pay for. That and 5 bench players.
Getting all that done with 15 million is possible, but you won't like the names that end up filling those spots.
Again, signing Lee without a salary hike can't happen. Even if it does, it would hamstring our ability at least in 2011 to plug other holes that will inevitably come up due to either injuries or ineffectiveness.
Add Cervelli, Pena, Robertson, Melancon, Montero at around $2.5 million for the group
Alan Slocum
05-06-10, 01:06 PM
If Montero is ready, Nick Johnson is gone. That is the issue (I feel) with Johnson-if Montero is ready he splits time with C/DH with Posada; if not Johnson will come back as 3/4 time DH.
I think Lee will get 18-20million a season. I do agree that there are few teams that won't be willing to spend that much money. It would be CRAZY for the Yankees (or anyone for that matter) to pay him the same as CC (23).
Gee, for a minute there I thought I was on the Brett Gardner page:D
The Yankees signed CC for mega-bucks for too many years because our home grown guys (at the time) failed to deliver. There will be no big FA signings in the next few years for any other reason than that. If Lee is signed, it will either be to replace a retiring Pettitte or the exiting head-case (Javy). Both are expected and likely at this point. That leaves a fifth starter spot for Chamberlain (unless they have finally come out of the closet and admitted he is the heir to Mo) or Nova.
I didn't, I used 18 and 17.4 for Lee and Jeter and the numbers still don't add up. And there is very little chance either goes that low.
Even with the most optimistic projections you seem to imply:
Lee for 18
Jeter for 17.4
Mo for 15
Hughes and Chamberlain only getting 1 million raise each (this would be a bad thing, as that would imply they had okay seasons instead of good ones, and would actually necessitate signing other pitchers)
That leaves ~15 million compared to 2010, chances are less, since Hughes will probably (and hopefully) get a bigger raise than 1 million.
At this point, our rotation is CC, Lee, Hughes, AJ. Pen=Mo and Marte. That leaves us with a starter and 5 reliever jobs to pay for. That and 5 bench players.
Getting all that done with 15 million is possible, but you won't like the names that end up filling those spots.
Again, signing Lee without a salary hike can't happen. Even if it does, it would hamstring our ability at least in 2011 to plug other holes that will inevitably come up due to either injuries or ineffectiveness.
I was hoping you'd provide a full breakdown.
I have a full 25 man roster with Lee and Jeter getting $20m, Mo staying at $15m (both are high imo), Hughes and Joba at $2m and it adds up to $211m.
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