View Full Version : Is the AL East a two-team race?
SubwayFanatic
07-06-09, 10:56 AM
All offseason we heard about how tough the AL East was going to be, how it was going to be a dogfight until the end, etc.
And while I agree that the division is still very talented, I have to wonder if it is the Yankees-Sox and everyone else.
The Orioles are clearly not in the race.
The Jays, despite having some talent, are simply not good enough to compete with the Big Boys.
The Rays I think are the real wild card here. Everything about them suggests that they should be better, but they remain 6 games behind the Sox.
Do you think the East is a two-team race? Or do you think another team in the division will make a serious run beyond the Sox-Yankees?
Mr Coffee
07-06-09, 11:10 AM
Considering how many games there are left between the Yankees, Sox, Rays and Jays, I think it is way too soon to declare any of those teams out of it.
the_coach
07-06-09, 11:13 AM
I think the defending American League Champions are still very much alive in the AL East race.
TommyK8
07-06-09, 11:15 AM
The Rays are very, very hard on the Red Sox and generally play extremely good baseball in every game againt them. They also seem to play well against the Yankees. There is no way I would count them out.
RYMASTER or Ryan_Yankees
07-06-09, 12:03 PM
I'd want to wait another month or so to see where the Rays are.
Yankees Pride
07-06-09, 12:49 PM
The Yanks were 9 games out at this point last year and 10.5 the year before that (making the play-offs in '07). Many people still considered them part of the race. If they were still in the race then I would say it's a 4 team race including the Jays, Rays, Yanks, and Sox. It's only July. There's an entire half of a season to go.
Steve Dalkowski
07-06-09, 01:57 PM
The Yankees were 5 games back two weeks ago. Six games back to start July is negligible.
Rocketman
07-06-09, 08:38 PM
I think Toronto has no business in the same echelon as the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays. Toronto has essentially one ace pitcher and an over-performing lineup of mostly scrubs or overrated personnel.
I say this because:
Aaron Hill had an 83 OPS+ last year in 55 games and in his best season previously his OPS+ was a pedestrian 107. This year he's on pace for over 40 HR... it's not gonna happen, and even a career year doesn't change the fact that he's just a good, not great hitter. Besides, he's one of only two guys on the team this year with any real power at all.
Marco Scutaro is a 33 year old who has never had 10 HR or 35 2B in any season... his career OPS+ is 90, yet he already has 61 runs scored this year.
Scott Rolen is hitting .328... in his 14 seasons, he's only hit .300 once before.
Alex Rios is once again underperforming expectations... 94 OPS+ so far for the perennial "future superstar."
Vernon Wells signed one of the all-time worst major league contracts and he's currently hitting .250 with limited power.
Adam Lind may well be a star, but he's not enough to put this team in the same league as squads with several true superstars on them.
Their highly paid closer (BJ Ryan) is injured and lost his job. Since he went down their closer situation has been a revolving door. The rotation is Halladay, a true ace, and what looks like remnants of the back end of the Mets rotation. Romero has been pretty good thus far, but he's still young.
I don't see how this team can stack up against the Rays, who have lots of great pitching (Shields, Kazmir, Garza, and Price) and an insanely fast, top notch offense (Upton, Crawford, Longoria, Bartlett, Pena, Zobrist). I don't see how they can compete with Boston's rotation of arrogant studs, their annoying yet efficient closer or their grimy, productive O. I don't see how they can compete with the Yankee lineup of Hall of Famers and All-Stars and the several hundred million dollar rotation.
It's a 3 team race this year, and I think Toronto needs to start rebuilding for the future yesterday.
No. As poorly as the Red Sox have been playing, I think there is still an outside chance they can stick with the Yankees and the Rays for a while.
Miss Yankees 19
07-06-09, 09:00 PM
No. As poorly as the Red Sox have been playing, I think there is still an outside chance they can stick with the Yankees and the Rays for a while.
Well-played. :o
SoCal Pinstriper
07-06-09, 10:03 PM
There are three months left. A few key injuries to the Soxor the Yanks or both, and Tampa could be the only ALEast team to make the post season. It is just way too early.
ArodEra
07-06-09, 10:44 PM
No. As poorly as the Red Sox have been playing, I think there is still an outside chance they can stick with the Yankees and the Rays for a while.
Classic.
parkerstrong
07-07-09, 07:55 AM
I think the Jays are done....3 team race.
There are three months left. A few key injuries to the Soxor the Yanks or both, and Tampa could be the only ALEast team to make the post season. It is just way too early.
^this.
Sixty one
07-09-09, 04:58 PM
This is definitely a three team race. Don't be surprised if the Orioles play the role of spoiler and knock off one of these teams down the stretch. If they get any kind of pitching they can change the outcome of whole wins the whole thing in the East. Toronto could finish last in this division and still be better than most of the other teams in the AL.....that's how strong the Eastern Division is.
DEADSOX
07-09-09, 05:30 PM
Both the Sox and Yankees could win 100 games this year :eek: I don't think anyone in our division has a chance unless there is a serious injury to either us or the Sox. Has there ever been two teams in the same division to win 100 or more games?
dpinzow
07-09-09, 10:24 PM
Both the Sox and Yankees could win 100 games this year :eek: I don't think anyone in our division has a chance unless there is a serious injury to either us or the Sox. Has there ever been two teams in the same division to win 100 or more games?
Braves and Giants in the old NL West (1993)
Braves won 104, Giants won 103...that situation led to the current setup with the wild card
Mariners and A's (2001)
Mariners won 116, A's won 102...Yankees knocked them both out to get to the WS that season
dpinzow
07-09-09, 10:38 PM
One more in the divisional era...in 1980 the Yankees won 103, beating the Orioles by 3 games (they won 100)
NYYRules#1
07-10-09, 01:10 AM
In addition, it's not in the divisional era, but there's a real oddity in that long Yankees dynasty of the late-40's and the 50's. From 1949 to 1958, the only year the Yanks didn't win the pennant was 1954. However, their best record in that timeframe, and the only season in which they won 100 games was, indeed, 1954. They won 103 games in 1954, while Cleveland won 111. So there's a real odd case of two teams winning 100+ games, especially considering no AL team had won 100 games for some time before that, or for some time after that.
But yeah, I'll be pretty surprised if the AL East doesn't wind up with 3 90+ win teams. I don't think any of the three will hit 100 wins (before the season, I had the Yanks at 98, the Sox at 96, and the Rays at 94, I believe, and all 3 of those are still pretty realistic, although the I doubt the Rays will hit 94), but it's certainly very possible (especially for either the Yanks or the Sox).
I can't see the AL Wild Card coming from any other division though. Honestly, I'll be extremely surprised if 3 of the 4 best AL records aren't right here in the AL East, which happened last year too (and either Texas or LAA will have to do pretty damn well in the 2nd in order to make the AL East not have the top 3 records in the AL period). This division is downright insane.
NYYRules#1
07-10-09, 01:16 AM
BTW, as of right now, both the Sox and Yanks are on pace to go about 97-65, and the Rays are on pace for about 89-73. Considering the Yanks had a slow start to the season weighing down their current record slightly, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them outpace that 97 win mark. I'd absolutely love for this team to crack 100 wins - winning 100 in this division would be a giantic accomplishment.
aeromac76
07-10-09, 10:31 AM
BTW, as of right now, both the Sox and Yanks are on pace to go about 97-65, and the Rays are on pace for about 89-73. Considering the Yanks had a slow start to the season weighing down their current record slightly, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them outpace that 97 win mark. I'd absolutely love for this team to crack 100 wins - winning 100 in this division would be a giantic accomplishment.
In this division at this time, a team that wins 100+ games may be as strong as the 1998 team.
DEADSOX
07-10-09, 11:43 AM
Braves and Giants in the old NL West (1993)
Braves won 104, Giants won 103...that situation led to the current setup with the wild card
Mariners and A's (2001)
Mariners won 116, A's won 102...Yankees knocked them both out to get to the WS that season
Thanks, I figured it had happened before I was just too lazy to look it up haha. I actually thought about the 2001 AL West but didn't realize the A's had won over 100, I thought they were at 98 or 99.
Don Wrigley
07-10-09, 12:08 PM
It's certainly not a 4-team race anymore, I'll tell you that much.
Remember when Toronto had a 3-4 game lead in 1st a month or so ago and people were saying "all they have to do is play .500 rthe rest of the way and they're in with 95 wins, it's a lock!" ...as if playing .500 ball the rest of the way was a given. They proceded to lose 10 games in a row right after that and in total probably played closer to .300 than .500 ball.
That being said, it is still a 3-team race for now, but I think the Rays are hanging by a thread, and if I had to guess I'd say by late August, it'll be a 2 team race.
It's certainly not a 4-team race anymore, I'll tell you that much.
Remember when Toronto had a 3-4 game lead in 1st a month or so ago and people were saying "all they have to do is play .500 rthe rest of the way and they're in with 95 wins, it's a lock!" ...as if playing .500 ball the rest of the way was a given. They proceded to lose 10 games in a row right after that and in total probably played closer to .300 than .500 ball.
That being said, it is still a 3-team race for now, but I think the Rays are hanging by a thread, and if I had to guess I'd say by late August, it'll be a 2 team race.
The Rays are 23 and 11 in June and July combined... I wouldn't say they're "hanging by a thread" but surging, instead.
Miss Yankees 19
07-10-09, 02:15 PM
The Rays are 23 and 11 in June and July combined... I wouldn't say they're "hanging by a thread" but surging, instead.
I agree. Beware of the Rays, people. They also play the Red Sox and Yankees extremely tough.
CoyoteYankee
07-10-09, 02:59 PM
I agree. Beware of the Rays, people. They also play the Red Sox and Yankees extremely tough.
Today Peter Gammons predicted that the Rays would with the AL East by at least 5 games.
SubwayFanatic
07-10-09, 03:05 PM
Today Peter Gammons predicted that the Rays would with the AL East by at least 5 games.
Did he really say that, or are you just being sarcastic?
DEADSOX
07-10-09, 03:08 PM
Did he really say that, or are you just being sarcastic?
He's been a Ray's homer all year. I honestly think they don't even win more than 88 games. I believe we play them right after the AS break or soon thereafter, if we lay down the law on them I don't see them recovering from that.
CoyoteYankee
07-10-09, 03:47 PM
Did he really say that, or are you just being sarcastic?
He really said that.
Soriambi
07-10-09, 03:49 PM
No, I don't think it is. I think it'll come down to the Yanks and Sox when all is said and done, but the Rays certainly still have a shot.
DEADSOX
07-10-09, 03:52 PM
A lot of people have put way too much stock in Kazmir and Price. Kazmir hasn't had a full healthy season for almost 2 years now and Price isn't an established starter yet, he's had flashes of brilliance, but you can't expect him to be lights out his first year in the rotation.
SubwayFanatic
07-10-09, 03:58 PM
He really said that.
I could see the Rays getting hot and possibly winning the division by a game or something.
But I am not really sure why he thinks the Rays are going to be 5 games better than both the Sox and Yankees at the end of the year.
dabomb2045
07-10-09, 04:04 PM
Im making a prediction:
AL East:
1. Yanks
2. Rays
3. Red Sox
Yes, Yanks win the division...Rays get the WC...Sox have a second half swoon and fall behind the more talented Yanks and Rays. HA!
kongull
07-10-09, 04:08 PM
Im making a prediction:
AL East:
1. Yanks
2. Rays
3. Red Sox
Yes, Yanks win the division...Rays get the WC...Sox have a second half swoon and fall behind the more talented Yanks and Rays. HA!
To quote The Foreigners..."Only in dreams could it be this way..."
Stache Fan
07-10-09, 04:12 PM
Im making a prediction:
AL East:
1. Yanks
2. Rays
3. Red Sox
Yes, Yanks win the division...Rays get the WC...Sox have a second half swoon and fall behind the more talented Yanks and Rays. HA!
Counter-prediction:
Yanks and Sox both finish regular season at 94 wins, they play a 3-game playoff series in which Yanks take 2/3. Rays finish 3rd.
CoyoteYankee
07-10-09, 04:13 PM
I could see the Rays getting hot and possibly winning the division by a game or something.
But I am not really sure why he thinks the Rays are going to be 5 games better than both the Sox and Yankees at the end of the year.
I think it's because that is the prediction that he made before the season started and he doesn't want to admit he was wrong so, gosh darn it he's sticking to it.
roblyo33
07-10-09, 04:20 PM
Rays are getting better and more confident. I think they will be in it until the end. It will be a three team race which should be fun.
Powered by vBulletin™ Version 4.0.7 Copyright © 2013 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
0