Phil Hughes 2009 Performance Thread [Archive] - Page 8

OnTheBorder79

05-10-09, 10:02 AM

Not sure if this has already been mentioned. But why didn't cash catch Phil last night? I mean has Cervelli ever caugth Phil? Could that have been part of the problem?

Catching is so overrated. These games, especially with the catchers we have now, are being called from the dugout. Cervelli should not get any blame for that performance, just like he shouldn't get any credit for CC's on Friday. I could have caught CC with the stuff he had that night.

NYYFutures17

05-10-09, 10:03 AM

Wait... Phil is in the bullpen now!? Is that official or are people just making that suggestion?

OnTheBorder79

05-10-09, 10:05 AM

Wait... Phil is in the bullpen now!? Is that official or are people just making that suggestion?

suggestion for when Wang gets back.

R.V.47

05-10-09, 10:09 AM

Wait... Phil is in the bullpen now!? Is that official or are people just making that suggestion?

Its a suggestion, but one that I think should get a lot more consideration than its been getting. We have a huge need there and Phil is basically a 2 pitch pitcher who over 1 inning could probably get his fastball up to 95-96 and has a decent out pitch if his curve is working. This doesnt mean hes finished as a starter forever but Id rather try this then keep throwing Veras and Edwar out there.

jughead

05-10-09, 10:17 AM

Jug, he got taken out because he gave up 8 runs in an inning, couldn't get anyone out, and had no command. Same as multiple starts last year. You make it sound as if he was throwing a quality start and Girardi arbitrarily decided he had seen enough.

Phil being out on the mound longer would have given us no chance whatsoever to get back in the game and done nothing but diminish his confidence. Please, let's look at him without any rose-colored glasses. He is not a ML-quality starter at this time.

I'm not sure if this is sarcastic or not. I mean that nicely. Every pitcher is better when they go 100 pitches. Why? Because that meant they were good that game. This is pretty obvious. Should they have let Phil keep going last night, to get to 100 pitches? If they did, that pretty ERA above would be like 12.00. Heck, he went like 92 pitches against the Red Sox.

If you're serious, this is classic apologist talk. Oh, poor Phil, nobody's letting him go 100 pitches so he stinks.

I also don't think you get how many great pitchers got their start in the bullpen. It's a way for him to learn how to get MLBers out. It's not a bad idea at all. There's no point in him going to AAA. He knows how to pitch there.

Except that most pitchers will usually reach 100 or near it in a start -- Phil had plenty of starts where he was pulled after 60-70 pitches even though he wasn't getting hit hard, just being worked hard. If you take any pitcher out after 3-4 IP, their stats will look worse. Granted some of those came because of getting hit hard (like last night), but that doesn't mean he's a bum who needs to be thrown into the pen. I don't really get this fascination with converting starters into relievers at the drop of a hat. Starters are MORE valuable than relievers, always. You convert them as a last resort, not because the 23 year old had a bad outing for the first time in 2009 and you're sick of having to watch one bad outing.

I swear some people expect Bob Gibson out on the mound every single time, otherwise it's off to the bullpen with them.

goin for 27

05-10-09, 10:23 AM

[quote=jughead]Except that most pitchers will usually reach 100 or near it in a start -- Phil had plenty of starts where he was pulled after 60-70 pitches even though he wasn't getting hit hard, just being worked hard.

Can you point me to these starts? I can't find a sub 90 pitch start where he was not getting completely lit up. (I don't think these starts you are posting about exist)

If you take any pitcher out after 3-4 IP, their stats will look worse.
Not if they pitch well....

OnTheBorder79

05-10-09, 10:29 AM

Except that most pitchers will usually reach 100 or near it in a start -- Phil had plenty of starts where he was pulled after 60-70 pitches even though he wasn't getting hit hard, just being worked hard. If you take any pitcher out after 3-4 IP, their stats will look worse. Granted some of those came because of getting hit hard (like last night), but that doesn't mean he's a bum who needs to be thrown into the pen. I don't really get this fascination with converting starters into relievers at the drop of a hat. Starters are MORE valuable than relievers, always. You convert them as a last resort, not because the 23 year old had a bad outing for the first time in 2009 and you're sick of having to watch one bad outing.

I swear some people expect Bob Gibson out on the mound every single time, otherwise it's off to the bullpen with them.

Please name a start where Phil threw 60-70 pitches and was pulled while throwing well. Just name one. According to the handy dandy game logs over at Baseball Reference, Phil went less than 60 once this year (last night), in 2008 (when there was a long rain delay and he was pulled) and never in 2007. So in short, you're making something up.

And if you don't consider the Red Sox start a bad outing, I have no idea. As many runs as innings, 11 baserunners in 4 innings ...

Also, one more time: Do you know how many very good starters began in the bullpen? This is not a demotion. The guy has nothing to prove in AAA and isn't a very good major league starter yet. Why is this hard to understand? Why do we need to even make up excuses?

Rocketbooster

05-10-09, 10:36 AM

Its a suggestion, but one that I think should get a lot more consideration than its been getting. We have a huge need there and Phil is basically a 2 pitch pitcher who over 1 inning could probably get his fastball up to 95-96 and has a decent out pitch if his curve is working. This doesnt mean hes finished as a starter forever but Id rather try this then keep throwing Veras and Edwar out there.

He's got a FB, curve and cutter and is working on change - that's not 2 pitches. Putting him in the pen retards his development. How exactly is he supposed to improve his other pitches in the pen if he's throwing only two of them?

Converting Phil to a reliever is just silly - and then people will wonder next year why he still hasn't refined his stuff. What's best for his future and the Yankees is that he goes back to AAA to work on the pitches he needs to work on.

OnTheBorder79

05-10-09, 10:42 AM

He's got a FB, curve and cutter and is working on change - that's not 2 pitches. Putting him in the pen retards his development. How exactly is he supposed to improve his other pitches in the pen?

Converting Phil to a reliever is just dumb

He improves his pitches by throwing all of them to MLB players, not dominating using just his good stuff to AAA players. It's not about converting him to a reliever; it's about going that same route that teams have done with countless good prospects, including Johan Santana, and every good starter under Earl Weaver, including Jim Palmer. Heck, the Cardinals do it a lot too. Adam Wainwright, etc.

It's not a bad idea. If he does well, he knows he can get MLBers out. There's no point in him dominating AAA anymore. He's got three years under his belt now. He's halfway to being a free agent. Let's get some use out of him. The way he's been jerked around so far, do really think he doesn't sign with another team in three years? We should finally do something that makes sense. AAA makes no sense right now. Starting is a bad idea because past performance makes us think he's not going to keep us in the game. We need a long man. It's the right idea. I truly believe that. Everybody who disagrees hasn't given an idea of what the team should do. What's the alternative?

TheGameEpisode2

05-10-09, 10:47 AM

He was throwing 93 consistently last night (on the YES gun anyway) so his stuff was obviously there, he just couldn't command it and when he fell behind he just laid cookies in there that got smacked.

The Huff HR was at the shins and away, how he hit it out was amazing. That was probably the best pitch Phil threw all night...but that's not saying much because he looked horrible the rest of the night. The thing that concerns me is that after little bloop hits or singles or errors by his teammates you can tell that he was getting flustered and angry...he had no composure out there. That, I think, is more concerning then anything.

OnTheBorder79

05-10-09, 10:52 AM

TheGameEpisode2

05-10-09, 10:57 AM

I don't know what he was throwing, but the YES is always ridiculously bad. Can we forget the immortal Jon Lester throwing 104!

He was throwing with Lord Ellsbury's arm that night.

Rastven

05-10-09, 11:01 AM

I don't know what he was throwing, but the YES is always ridiculously bad. Can we forget the immortal Jon Lester throwing 104!
Gameday was 93-94 so velocity wasn't an issue.
Bad luck, bad fielding and a little bad command plagued him.

This start reminded me completely of the Mussina start at YS last year where Moose was bounced after either 1IP or 1IP plus.

Some nights a pitcher isn't going to have it and/or not get any luck. Phil was hit with both in one go. Maybe is Swish doesn't airmail the throw for no apparent reason Phil bears down and gets out with only a run or two against his name.

After his decent first I don't think anyone could have predicted the implosion we saw.

teknetic

05-10-09, 11:12 AM

I could understand getting beat by Huff, but Zaun? the HBP to Montanez was brutal and probably turned that inning.

TheGameEpisode2

05-10-09, 11:14 AM

grizy

05-10-09, 11:18 AM

Bad luck my ***. You can't locate breaking balls, I don't care if you throw 98mph gas, MLB hitters will put the balls in play and put great many of them for hits.

Hughes was allowed to throw 99 in his first start and 94 in second.

He hasn't been getting pulled because of pitch counts... he's been getting pulled because he's been bad.

grizy

05-10-09, 11:20 AM

But that's what I'm talking about; once Swish throws the ball away it looked like Phil was about to kill somebody and just couldn't find it afterwards. I mean, look at his own teammate...

Joba gets blasted for four runs before he even gets the first out of the GAME...so what does he do? Oh he just settles down and strikes out 12 batters in 5.2, and keeps the team in the game. When things go bad for Phil he doesn't seem to be able to collect himself and fight through it.

Compound this with Hughes himself should have kept eyes on the ball.

He just went through the motions because he was supposed to run there, but if you aren't looking at the ball, you might as well have stayed on the mound.

smckdwn989

05-10-09, 11:20 AM

doesn't phil have a 2 seamer? where the hell was it last night?

SLURPEE

05-10-09, 11:25 AM

doesn't phil have a 2 seamer? where the hell was it last night?

Mmm I believe he scraped that sometime ago in favor of the cutter. That serves as a FB at lower velocity with movement. Same as a 2 seamer.

He really needs a change up. A good change can do wonders for him. His curve wasn't working for him yesterday so he was forced to throw FB after FB. Had he had a good change might of made a difference.

TheGameEpisode2

05-10-09, 11:27 AM

He threw a couple of changeups...problem was that they were WAAAY out of the strikezone and high, so obviously he had no control over that either.

smckdwn989

05-10-09, 11:27 AM

Mmm I believe he scraped that sometime ago in favor of the cutter. That serves as a FB at lower velocity with movement. Same as a 2 seamer.

He really needs a change up. A good change can do wonders for him. His curve wasn't working for him yesterday so he was forced to throw FB after FB. Had he had a good change might of made a difference.

i still think having a 2 seamer to go to in a spot where he needs a groundball would be useful. his change is still that work in progress, we've seen glimpses of it

grizy

05-10-09, 11:28 AM

doesn't phil have a 2 seamer? where the hell was it last night?

His cutter uses the 2 seamer grip and it's possible he has trouble getting the ball to tail instead of cut even if he wants to throw a regular 2 seamer. He wouldn't be the only pitcher to have that problem. Some pitchers just can't do it because of the way they twist and turn their arms and wrists.

I am not saying Hughes doesn't have a 2 seamer anymore. I am saying if he in fact doesn't, the cutter is the likely explanation.

Honestly I can't think of a lot of pitchers that throw both sinkers and cutters regularly and well. The only ones that come to mind are Halladay and Zambrano. Most players end up with slider+sinker probably because they still get the scissor action going but the pressure points/grip on the ball are sufficiently different it's easier for their bodies to differentiate between two pitches.

MaximMan121

05-10-09, 11:38 AM

ppa79

05-10-09, 11:40 AM

Phil was not throwing a 2-seamer last night. PitchFX analysis seems to suggest that Phil dropped his release point last night, and that as a result his breaking stuff became less sharp and his fastball's movement became lesser.

Take a look at the analysis, and feel free to add in:
http://theyankeesdollar.blogspot.com/2009/05/so-what-happened-to-phil-hughes-last.html

Lets hope the Yankee org looks at stuff like this.

grizy

05-10-09, 11:40 AM

Rocketbooster

05-10-09, 11:46 AM

He improves his pitches by throwing all of them to MLB players, not dominating using just his good stuff to AAA players. It's not about converting him to a reliever; it's about going that same route that teams have done with countless good prospects, including Johan Santana, and every good starter under Earl Weaver, including Jim Palmer. Heck, the Cardinals do it a lot too. Adam Wainwright, etc.

It's not a bad idea. If he does well, he knows he can get MLBers out. There's no point in him dominating AAA anymore. He's got three years under his belt now. He's halfway to being a free agent. Let's get some use out of him. The way he's been jerked around so far, do really think he doesn't sign with another team in three years? We should finally do something that makes sense. AAA makes no sense right now. Starting is a bad idea because past performance makes us think he's not going to keep us in the game. We need a long man. It's the right idea. I truly believe that. Everybody who disagrees hasn't given an idea of what the team should do. What's the alternative?

He was working on all of his pitches in AAA - that's a fact.

The Yankees suck at developing pitchers and I think Phil would probably (in fact, not just Phil, but all of our talented youngsters) be better off in another organization. I read that, per Joe and Phil, he left the pen with arm slot issues. The Yankees couldn't get him straightened out in the pen? Unbelievable.

MaximMan121

05-10-09, 11:51 AM

Lets hope the Yankee org looks at stuff like this.

Let's hope they don't. Because I'll happily do it for them! (Brian, call me.)

Huktonfonix

05-10-09, 11:55 AM

Zack Greinke at 21:

5-17 5.80 ERA 1.56 WHIP 2.15 K/BB

Zack Greinke at 22:

Sent to AA

Hughes turns 23 this summer. Can we chill out a bit?

OnTheBorder79

05-10-09, 12:03 PM

Zack Greinke at 21:

5-17 5.80 ERA 1.56 WHIP 2.15 K/BB

Zack Greinke at 22:

Sent to AA

Hughes turns 23 this summer. Can we chill out a bit?

Again, we are really cherry picking here. Greinke had very real mental issues. Heck, he was, at one point, diagnosed with Asperger's disease, a form of autism. Let's not use him as a comparison, Or Greg Maddux or any other one in a million (almost literally) instance.

Huktonfonix

05-10-09, 12:33 PM

Again, we are really cherry picking here. Greinke had very real mental issues. Heck, he was, at one point, diagnosed with Asperger's disease, a form of autism. Let's not use him as a comparison, Or Greg Maddux or any other one in a million (almost literally) instance.

If I'm cherry picking, what is normal for a 22 year-old of Hughes' pedigree? Can we talk about Randy Johnson? Curt Schilling? Josh Beckett? A.J. Burnett? Roy Halladay? Jake Peavy? Kevin Brown? Johan Santana? C.C. Sabathia?

I'm not trying to cherry pick at all. I'm thinking of "Ace" pitchers and I can think of a lot more that hadn't figured it out by 22, 23, even 24 or 25 than had. Brandon Webb wasn't in the majors yet. The only guys I thought of who were great by 22 and never really looked back were Oswalt, Zambrano, and Mussina.

And in almost every case there were ups and downs. As much as I expect Hughes to get better, and to see some 15-20 win, 130-150 ERA+ seasons from him, I expect setbacks too. Mussina had a 157 ERA+ at 23, and then a 100 at 24. Peavy's ERA+'s from 22 to 25 went 96, 171, 134, 99.

MaximMan121

05-10-09, 12:44 PM

yankeeman61

05-10-09, 12:49 PM

Some are preaching patience and that's fine. But patience doesn't mean keep running him out there in the rotation to get pounded. The Yankees need to take a different course of patience with Phil. That's either more time in the MiL or a move to the bullpen. If the Yankee goal was to blow up the team and rebuild (in other words not win for awhile), then they could simply wait it out with Phil in the rotation like the Tigers did with Bonderman. But that's not the mission of this team. Phil's current status is not where the Yankees need him to be. He's just not ready to be in the rotation right now.

goin for 27

05-10-09, 12:54 PM

If I'm cherry picking, what is normal for a 22 year-old of Hughes' pedigree? Can we talk about Randy Johnson? Curt Schilling? Josh Beckett? A.J. Burnett? Roy Halladay? Jake Peavy? Kevin Brown? Johan Santana? C.C. Sabathia?

The problem is that there are thousands of pitchers who washed out with poor numbers, and of course very few that became stars like the above. It goes back to expectations. There are hundreds with "great pedigrees" of early success that washed out.

I'm not trying to cherry pick at all. I'm thinking of "Ace" pitchers and I can think of a lot more that hadn't figured it out by 22, 23, even 24 or 25 than had. Brandon Webb wasn't in the majors yet. The only guys I thought of who were great by 22 and never really looked back were Oswalt, Zambrano, and Mussina.

Really? I am a little too lazy to look, but how about Pedro? Doc Gooden, I think was pretty good as a youngster. :lol: Seaver, Maddux, Clemens, the list goes on.

And in almost every case there were ups and downs. As much as I expect Hughes to get better, and to see some 15-20 win, 130-150 ERA+ seasons from him, I expect setbacks too. Mussina had a 157 ERA+ at 23, and then a 100 at 24. Peavy's ERA+'s from 22 to 25 went 96, 171, 134, 99. [/QUOTE]

I agree with this. Time to lower expectations, and get Hughes more time to develop. AND, hope that he can put it all together, by no means is it guaranteed.

JavyVazquezIsSick

05-10-09, 02:33 PM

Hughes biggest enemy is his control. He has 0 control on his off-speed pitches.

NelsonMuntz

05-10-09, 02:38 PM

... So I see Hughes' mechanics getting more and more out of whack every day he spends with Eiland. I actually drew mental circles on the release points for "day 0, day 5, day 10"
I'm officially on the "fire Eiland" bandwagon, and I was a proponent of his hiring at the time. It's just become too frustrating watching our pitchers consistently struggle with their command. I don't know for certain that it is his fault but I want someone to be held accountable for all of the mechanical problems that seem to plague our staff.

peeps4iife

05-10-09, 02:39 PM

Maybe Johnny should also say this:" our linup has to start to learn to give our pitchers two or three runs to work with. Stop letting the opposing pitcher settle in and don't give the team a chance to come back".

I understand Johnny's frustration in games like these, but mostly the offense has been incredibly bad this season and it would be nice if they took responsibility for the poor play.

this doesn't strike you as being a bit STUPID? how many 8+ run 2nd innings has our pitching given up now?

R.V.47

05-10-09, 02:44 PM

Spiker101

05-10-09, 02:57 PM

Phil needs to take a cue from Jobas start today. There were many times today when Joba couldve let things get out of hand but he didnt, he bore down and got big outs to keep the team in the game. Thats what Damon was referring to in his interview and its what Phil has had trouble with.

By bearing down do you mean like when the Orioles' baserunner overran second on a walk or when Mora got gunned down? Joba got very lucky today, when you give up 11 baserunners in six innings you better get some luck. Hughes got very unlucky last night.

NelsonMuntz

05-10-09, 03:03 PM

By bearing down do you mean like when the Orioles' baserunner overran second on a walk or when Mora got gunned down? Joba got very lucky today, when you give up 11 baserunners in six innings you better get some luck. Hughes got very unlucky last night.
I agree with your main point about Joba today but Hughes didn't help himself last night either. When you don't miss bats, bad things are going to happen.

Spiker101

05-10-09, 03:40 PM

I agree with your main point about Joba today but Hughes didn't help himself last night either. When you don't miss bats, bad things are going to happen.

Not even close to defending Hughes' performance last night, just noting that Joba's performance will look so much better in the scorebook but in reality ...

jimmykey2

05-10-09, 04:08 PM

Not even close to defending Hughes' performance last night, just noting that Joba's performance will look so much better in the scorebook but in reality ...

Reality or not, Joba's performance didn't remotely resemble the garbage from Hughes yesterday.

Spiker101

05-10-09, 06:14 PM

Reality or not, Joba's performance didn't remotely resemble the garbage from Hughes yesterday.

I should know better than to leave a thought unwritten around here. to wit: "but in reality ... Joba has been extremely erratic this season. He has a 1.56 WHIP and a .287 batting average against and yet he's still managed to keep his ERA below 4. Sooner or later he either steps up his performance or the ERA goes north."

yankeeman61

05-10-09, 07:05 PM

jimmykey2

05-10-09, 07:17 PM

I should know better than to leave a thought unwritten around here. to wit: "but in reality ... Joba has been extremely erratic this season. He has a 1.56 WHIP and a .287 batting average against and yet he's still managed to keep his ERA below 4. Sooner or later he either steps up his performance or the ERA goes north."

Okay... how does this compare with Phil Hughes? That's what you tried to do originally for some odd reason. Hughes embarrassed himself and the team Saturday night and hasn't shown the ability to put 2 or 3 average starts together in his career. In far too many starts the past 14 months, he's made it downright impossible for the Yankees to win that night and hurt their ability to win the next game by exhausting the bullpen.

Feel free to continue to "expose" Joba's deficiencies to your fellow posters here.

JeterRodriguezSheff

05-10-09, 07:41 PM

Joba, as a young pitcher has been impressive this far. His ERA is under 4, he has a high k/9, and even when he doesnt have his best stuff or control, he finds a way to keep his team in the game. You can see him flash his potential ace of spades future from time to time.

While Hughes also flashes spurts of promise, it is either that or nothing. If he doesnt have his A stuff and control he gets pounded and hard.

Metroidman

05-10-09, 08:41 PM

I just think Hughes needs to learn to pitch when he doesn't have good fastball command. That's the thing he hasn't learned yet

Derek2HOF

05-10-09, 08:45 PM

I don't think he was implying that Hughes will turn out like Greinke. The point is, we shouldn't write Hughes off, as many have been.

This was my point with Maddux too.

junkman73

05-10-09, 08:51 PM

I agree with your main point about Joba today but Hughes didn't help himself last night either. When you don't miss bats, bad things are going to happen.

Before his injury Wang was not much of a strike out guy. I don't know if you have to whiff a lot of batters. That being said, I think it makes the argument for the 2 seamer.

JeterRodriguezSheff

05-10-09, 08:53 PM

Before his injury Wang was not much of a strike out guy. I don't know if you have to whiff a lot of batters. That being said, I think it makes the argument for the 2 seamer.

Hughes is a fly ball pitcher, whereas when Wang is right, basically everything is weak grounder.

teknetic

05-10-09, 08:55 PM

Metroidman

05-10-09, 09:01 PM

I think people are giving up on Hughes far too early. Watch the game between the Red Sox/Rays right now. Hughes stuff is very similar to what those 2 guys throw in terms of FB/Curve

I'm watching pitch fx and comparing it to Hughes's start yesterday. He sat at 94 and his curve sat around 78-79. That's much better than last year where he was at 90 and 74. I just think he needs to learn to pitch better with non perfect FB command and that's it

ThePinStripes

05-10-09, 09:20 PM

One small difference- they get people out with their FB/Curve and they have a change and a better fastball. It's not magic or coincidence. They obviously do it better than him.

Metroidman

05-10-09, 09:22 PM

One small difference- they get people out with their FB/Curve and they have a change and a better fastball. It's not magic or coincidence. They obviously do it better than him.

Their FB break and speed today has been maybe at most 1mph higher than hughes. The break is acutally less than Hughes's FB. If you watch his starts, when he doesn't have great FB command, he just doesn't pitch well. He needs to learn to pitch better without perfect command

JeterRodriguezSheff

05-10-09, 09:42 PM

Beckett throw 93-95 and harder when he needs to. Hughes throw 90-93 and 94 when he needs to. He also has much better command of his curve, and an adequate third offspeed pitch.

Metroidman

05-10-09, 09:51 PM

Beckett throw 93-95 and harder when he needs to. Hughes throw 90-93 and 94 when he needs to. He also has much better command of his curve, and an adequate third offspeed pitch.

Hughes threw 90-93 last year

This year he's 92-94 easy and can go higher. That's the difference I'm seeing

Rastven

05-10-09, 09:59 PM

Hughes threw 90-93 last year

This year he's 92-94 easy and can go higher. That's the difference I'm seeing
Me too. Things have changed for the better velocity wise. He just needs the control.
I just wonder if he isn't doing a Maverick and "holding on too tight"

ArodEra

05-10-09, 10:04 PM

Anybody else notice that Hughes has been combing his hair like Sandy Koufax? Good sign.

1936-1939JoeNLou

05-10-09, 10:09 PM

Metroidman

05-10-09, 10:11 PM

Phil can be a decent pitcher only with a fastball and curve. For many years, Mike Mussina only threw fastball and knucke curve and he was succesful. I also think Hughes has similar stuff to Matt Garza. I think Garza's off speed pitch is a curve, although it could be a slider. But if he can get command, I see him as a pitcher capable of 4.00 era. If he betters his change he can be a top of the rotation starter.

Garza is a FB/Curve/Slider guy with the occasional changeup

Funny enough Garza's slider has about as much movement as Hughes's cutter. I just think its a problem of learning to pitch without great command. Stop missing up in the zone. If you miss, miss down in the zone

peeps4iife

05-10-09, 10:11 PM

Phil can be a decent pitcher only with a fastball and curve. For many years, Mike Mussina only threw fastball and knucke curve and he was succesful. I also think Hughes has similar stuff to Matt Garza. I think Garza's off speed pitch is a curve, although it could be a slider. But if he can get command, I see him as a pitcher capable of 4.00 era. If he betters his change he can be a top of the rotation starter.

uhhhh.... moose had PINPOINT control and a circle change for nearly his whole career.

R.V.47

05-10-09, 10:12 PM

uhhhh.... moose had PINPOINT control and a circle change for nearly his whole career.

He also threw from different angles and was a master of changing speeds. Hughes is not in the same universe as Moose, at least not yet.

JeterRodriguezSheff

05-10-09, 10:31 PM

Phil can be a decent pitcher only with a fastball and curve. For many years, Mike Mussina only threw fastball and knucke curve and he was succesful. I also think Hughes has similar stuff to Matt Garza. I think Garza's off speed pitch is a curve, although it could be a slider. But if he can get command, I see him as a pitcher capable of 4.00 era. If he betters his change he can be a top of the rotation starter.

We have all been saying this for a while now, but it doesnt seem like he has made a lot of progress with it. At this point, once Wang comes back, he needs to go to the minors, and throw only curves and change.

nycdoc999

05-10-09, 10:43 PM

Kennedy and Hughes and spare parts - and we could have had Santana...

sigh

Metroidman

05-10-09, 10:43 PM

Kennedy and Hughes and spare parts - and we could have had Santana...

sigh

+ Santana
- Sabathia

At the end of the season it wont make any difference whatsoever

nycdoc999

05-10-09, 10:46 PM

+ Santana
- Sabathia

At the end of the season it wont make any difference whatsoever

But what if it was Santana AND Sabathia (and not Burnett)...

Double sigh...

Metroidman

05-10-09, 10:46 PM

But what if it was Santana AND Sabathia (and not Burnett)...

Double sigh...

XD Yeah there is exactly a 0 chance we would have both Sabathia and Santana.

ThePinStripes

05-10-09, 10:50 PM

I disagree. No reason to think it decisively wouldn't happen.

JohnnyDamonfan

05-10-09, 10:54 PM

I still believe Hughes is a major part of our team. You just have to give him time to develop. He's only 22 years old you just watch he's gonna be a good reliable starter by 2010 mark my words.

JeterRodriguezSheff

05-10-09, 10:55 PM

I think our starting rotation is fine for the long term without Santana. Santana may have provided better years than Hughes ever will, but he isnt going to last forever, and his fastball is slowing down. If Hughes even becomes a servicable number 3 we have a long term rotation of:
Sabathia
Burnett
Joba
Wang
Hughes

That is more than adequate. And with Santana's contract, who knows if we could have went out and got all the other players we did?

You can fault Cashman for the bullpen, but long term i like what he has done with the starting rotation.

ThePinStripes

05-10-09, 11:30 PM

Yeah, slowing down to a 0.91 ERA.

Hughes and Wang aren't anything remotely resembling adequate right now. When they are, I'll reevaluate.

just-blaze

05-11-09, 12:09 AM

Garza is a FB/Curve/Slider guy with the occasional changeup

Funny enough Garza's slider has about as much movement as Hughes's cutter. I just think its a problem of learning to pitch without great command. Stop missing up in the zone. If you miss, miss down in the zone

The biggest problem I think he has is that he isn't throwing the FB enough. Garza throws his FB 70 percent of the time......Hughes is at 47 percent this year with similar velocity as Garza.

I think the more he throws it the better feel and command he could have with it. Not to mention it makes his secondary offerings that much harder to hit or foul off to the hitters. And the more he throws it, the better his arm strength increases as well.

I also think he needs to work in and out more efficiently. He goes up and down fine but never busts anyone inside and then cutter/curve to the outside. Its always outside, outside, outside......or inside inside inside. Two particular abs where he got burned doing that are the Huff and Ortiz one's respectively.

Otherwise I really like what I see and hear from him.

ajra21

05-11-09, 04:17 AM

guys, hughes' problem is simple. he has to throw strikes. if he does that, he'll be a god pitcher, if he doesn't he won't. his three pitches are fine.

yankeeman61

05-11-09, 05:37 AM

guys, hughes' problem is simple. he has to throw strikes. if he does that, he'll be a god pitcher, if he doesn't he won't. his three pitches are fine.

We might want to lower expectations a tad ;)

nnysiny

05-11-09, 06:11 AM

Kennedy and Hughes and spare parts - and we could have had Santana...

sigh
and Brett Gardner would be your CF all year

Eschie

05-11-09, 06:38 AM

Garza throws his FB 70 percent of the time......Hughes is at 47 percent this year with similar velocity as Garza.

Not at all.

Eschie

05-11-09, 06:39 AM

and Brett Gardner would be your CF all year

No, we would've signed Cameron, which would've fixed another flop by our GM.

Hobie

05-11-09, 06:55 AM

Hughes doesn't throw as hard as Garza...few people do.

Metroidman

05-11-09, 06:56 AM

Hughes doesn't throw as hard as Garza...few people do.

Garza's average velocity yesterday was 94mph

Hughes average velocity his last few starts is 92mph

So yeah its not a huge difference. Garza tops out at 97 and Hughes tops out at 95 thus far

Eschie

05-11-09, 06:59 AM

Garza's average velocity yesterday was 94mph

Hughes average velocity his last few starts is 92mph

So yeah its not a huge difference. Garza tops out at 97 and Hughes tops out at 95 thus far

2mph is a huge difference.

Metroidman

05-11-09, 07:03 AM

Fangraphs

2009 Average Velocity/Movement

FB
Hughes = 91.9mph with 5.2' movement
Garza = 92.3mph with 4.1' movement

Difference?
FB% thrown

Hughes = 53.7%
Garza = 70.1%

goin for 27

05-11-09, 07:03 AM

XD Yeah there is exactly a 0 chance we would have both Sabathia and Santana.

There is exactly 0 chance that we would have both ARod and Teixiera. ...oh, wait, we do....

Metroidman

05-11-09, 07:04 AM

There is exactly 0 chance that we would have both ARod and Teixiera. ...oh, wait, we do....

ARod was in 2004 and Teix was in 09

We weren't going to sign 2 140+ mil pitchers in the span of a year. That's just insanely stupid

Eschie

05-11-09, 07:05 AM

ARod was in 2004 and Teix was in 09

We weren't going to sign 2 140+ mil pitchers in the span of a year. That's just insanely stupid

Dare to dream.

Metroidman

05-11-09, 07:07 AM

Also to point out % of times FB thown

Josh Beckett in his best years throws his FB 70% of the time

Beckett is throwing his FB around 59% of the time this year so far and he's been getting shelled.

Eschie

05-11-09, 07:09 AM

Fangraphs

2009 Average Velocity/Movement

FB
Hughes = 91.9mph with 5.2' movement
Garza = 92.3mph with 4.1' movement

Difference?
FB% thrown

Hughes = 53.7%
Garza = 70.1%

Hughes will never have a game where he sits at 94.40 like Garza did last night.

Eschie

05-11-09, 07:12 AM

There is exactly 0 chance that we would have both ARod and Teixiera. ...oh, wait, we do....

I don't know why people think we're incapable or unwilling to obtain the two best pitchers in BB in consecutive years, especially after signing Sabathia-Tex-Burnett in one off-season.

yankeeman61

05-11-09, 07:12 AM

Fangraphs

2009 Average Velocity/Movement

FB
Hughes = 91.9mph with 5.2' movement
Garza = 92.3mph with 4.1' movement

Difference?
FB% thrown

Hughes = 53.7%
Garza = 70.1%

If Hughes would hit his spots consistently it would make a big difference. We saw that in his game against Detroit. He made just a few mistakes and he was painting for the most part. Since then not so much. Garza not only throws harder but his command is better. At this point the two aren't even comparable.

Metroidman

05-11-09, 07:13 AM

Hughes will never have a game where he sits at 94.40 like Garza did last night.

And I'm not trying to say Hughes will be throwing as hard as Garza. He has sat 93 for a whole game before. 1mph isn't that big a difference. Again the problem is that he is throwing his curve far too much. You need to use your FB a lot more than your other pitches because it sets up everything else.

JohnnyEllis

05-11-09, 07:16 AM

ARod was in 2004 and Teix was in 09

We weren't going to sign 2 140+ mil pitchers in the span of a year. That's just insanely stupid

We spent $80 million on Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa. That's well over halfway to insanely stupid.

Metroidman

05-11-09, 07:17 AM

We spent $80 million on Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa. That's well over halfway to insanely stupid.

Hey 2 stupids dont make a smart

23jordan

05-11-09, 07:18 AM

I think the kid just needs to be up long enough ( the whole damn year ) to get comfortable. Every start he makes is analyzed by the media to hell and back.

Eschie

05-11-09, 07:18 AM

And I'm not trying to say Hughes will be throwing as hard as Garza. He has sat 93 for a whole game before. 1mph isn't that big a difference. Again the problem is that he is throwing his curve far too much. You need to use your FB a lot more than your other pitches because it sets up everything else.

Not every pitcher needs to pitch in this manner to be effective.

Metroidman

05-11-09, 07:21 AM

Not every pitcher needs to pitch in this manner to be effective.

Most people do. Also I think I found another problem with Hughes so far this year

BB/9 = 6.17

Last year Hughes BABIP was .354. That's so insanely high. I dont even know how to define how unlucky that is. His FIP last year was 4.34

This season his BABIP is .376. Unless Hughes somehow manages to be the unluckiest pitcher in the history of baseball, you have to figure his ERA will eventually normalize.

goin for 27

05-11-09, 07:26 AM

ARod was in 2004 and Teix was in 09

We weren't going to sign 2 140+ mil pitchers in the span of a year. That's just insanely stupid

No. It is insanely stupid to talk about getting ARod in 2004. I assume that you know that ARod opted out of that contract, and we had to write a spanking new one, in December, 2007. 12 months later, December 2008 - Yanks signed Teixiera.

This was...."the span of a year".

Please use facts...the ARod/Tex signings were not five years apart, it makes you look ignorant.

Eschie

05-11-09, 07:28 AM

Most people do. Also I think I found another problem with Hughes so far this year

BB/9 = 6.17

You meant to say you found the problem.

Last year Hughes BABIP was .354. That's so insanely high. I dont even know how to define how unlucky that is. His FIP last year was 4.34

This season his BABIP is .376. Unless Hughes somehow manages to be the unluckiest pitcher in the history of baseball, you have to figure his ERA will eventually normalize.

You're going to get insane BABIPs like .354 when you're LD% is 26.7%. It would have been the worst in baseball had he qualified.

mvavra1

05-11-09, 07:29 AM

I think the kid just needs to be up long enough ( the whole damn year ) to get comfortable. Every start he makes is analyzed by the media to hell and back.

Exactly, well said. He needs a year of seasoning on the ML level and injury free. The kid is still young, he's got a lot to learn on the ML level. I feel for Phil, the expectations of these fans are that he should go out every start and throw 7-8 innings of 4 hit 2 run or less ball. Give him time folks, I think you will love Phil in a few years when he does do that.

Metroidman

05-11-09, 07:31 AM

You meant to say you found the problem.

You're going to get insane BABIPs like .354 when you're LD% is 26.7%. It would have been the worst in baseball had he qualified.

I agree his LD% was insanely high. This year though it has normalized. I have to figure his BABIP this year is a factor of bad luck thus far since his LD% is 18%

Eschie

05-11-09, 07:32 AM

yankeeman61

05-11-09, 07:32 AM

I think the kid just needs to be up long enough ( the whole damn year ) to get comfortable. Every start he makes is analyzed by the media to hell and back.

He should be handled the way Minny handled Santana if they are to keep him on the ML team.

Eschie

05-11-09, 07:32 AM

I agree his LD% was insanely high. This year though it has normalized. I have to figure his BABIP this year is a factor of bad luck thus far since his LD% is 18%

11.2 IP

Metroidman

05-11-09, 07:34 AM

11.2 IP

Yes it is a small sample size. But his career LD% in the majors is 20% and this includes the 27% from 2008.

Eschie

05-11-09, 07:35 AM

Yes it is a small sample size. But his career LD% in the majors is 20% and this includes the 27% from 2008.

So you agree that it wasn't all bad luck last year

justinvarnes

05-11-09, 07:37 AM

I think the kid just needs to be up long enough ( the whole damn year ) to get comfortable. Every start he makes is analyzed by the media to hell and back.

I agree with you about the overanalyzation. But I think he's in a good situation being on the Scranton - Bronx shuttle. He's up here to get a few starts for Wang, then he'll go down and get to work on some things he doesn't have time to work on in the Bronx.

Then when someone else goes on the 15 day DL, he can come back up and gain some more experience facing ML hitters.

Alot (not ALL) of young pitchers seem to have a hard time trusting their stuff when they're staring at hitters that don't chase the kind of pitches AA or AAA hitters do. Or when they throw a good pitch that a AAA hitter would miss or foul off and somehow an ML hitter goes down and gets it and hits a HR.

It's clear Hughes is going through some of that (as is Joba). Slowly building his experiences up is an integral part of the learning process. Ideally, he'd be a #5 starter to do that, but that's what Joba is doing this year. Young pitchers are usually inconsistent, and I believe that's what we are seeing with Hughes.

Unless he has some major meltdown, or one of the starting 5 this year has a major problem (Wang), I think he's still right on track to be the Yankees 2010 #5 starter.

ieddyi

05-11-09, 07:38 AM

Also to point out % of times FB thown

Josh Beckett in his best years throws his FB 70% of the time

Beckett is throwing his FB around 59% of the time this year so far and he's been getting shelled.

His first year w/ the sawx they complained he didnt throw the FB enough. I think it was the fear of blisters. When he let go @ the end of that year, he was great. It carried over to 07 when he had an excellent year. His FB used to be very straight and it seems like this year he's throwing more 2 seamers

Whatever he's doing, I hope he continues to get shelled

Metroidman

05-11-09, 07:38 AM

So you agree that it wasn't all bad luck last year

It was partly bad luck also. Josh Beckett has a LD% of 25% and his BABIP still was not nearly as bad as Hughes. I still think he's going to be better this year if he just throws strikes

Eschie

05-11-09, 07:46 AM

It was partly bad luck also. Josh Beckett has a LD% of 25% and his BABIP still was not nearly as bad as Hughes. I still think he's going to be better this year if he just throws strikes

It's not like they BABIP and LD% move lockstep.

And he does have the misfortune of playing in front of some awful defenses.

ieddyi

05-11-09, 07:47 AM

I agree with you about the overanalyzation. But I think he's in a good situation being on the Scranton - Bronx shuttle. He's up here to get a few starts for Wang, then he'll go down and get to work on some things he doesn't have time to work on in the Bronx.

Then when someone else goes on the 15 day DL, he can come back up and gain some more experience facing ML hitters.

Alot (not ALL) of young pitchers seem to have a hard time trusting their stuff when they're staring at hitters that don't chase the kind of pitches AA or AAA hitters do. Or when they throw a good pitch that a AAA hitter would miss or foul off and somehow an ML hitter goes down and gets it and hits a HR.

It's clear Hughes is going through some of that (as is Joba). Slowly building his experiences up is an integral part of the learning process. Ideally, he'd be a #5 starter to do that, but that's what Joba is doing this year. Young pitchers are usually inconsistent, and I believe that's what we are seeing with Hughes.

Unless he has some major meltdown, or one of the starting 5 this year has a major problem (Wang), I think he's still right on track to be the Yankees 2010 #5 starter.

The problem with Phil seems to be that he's too fragile. It's too easy for him to lose his mechanics and completely fall apart. Could his freak injuries and slow recovery be tied to faulty mechanics?

Phil progress could seen as a referendum on the Yanks ability to develop talent

Metroidman

05-11-09, 07:48 AM

It's not like they BABIP and LD% move lockstep.

He does have the misfortune of playing in front of some awful defenses.

Very true. Last year Cano was horrid defensively and we have Giambi at 1st and Jeter at 3rd. We have improved out IF defense by miles this year. Teix is golden and Cano finally is doing great in the field. now if only we can find someone who can play good def at the oh so important SS position

JavyVazquezIsSick

05-11-09, 07:49 AM

Send him back down to the minors, let him dominate, and then trade him.

Eschie

05-11-09, 07:52 AM

Send him back down to the minors, let him dominate, and then trade him.

For Johan Santana.

JavyVazquezIsSick

05-11-09, 07:55 AM

Preferably. I'd take any raw prospect with a high ceiling in the low minors for Phil.

Eschie

05-11-09, 07:58 AM

Preferably. I'd take any raw prospect with a high ceiling in the low minors for Phil.

When was the last time trading for prospects in the low minors worked for us? Gimme ML ready talent, our scouting and development is either insanely unlucky or awful.

JavyVazquezIsSick

05-11-09, 08:00 AM

When was the last time trading for prospects in the low minors worked for us? Gimme ML ready talent, our scouting and development is either insanely unlucky or awful.

When was the last time we made a trade like that?

Hughes wouldn't fetch anything useful that is ML ready.

apalradio

05-11-09, 08:01 AM

Exactly, well said. He needs a year of seasoning on the ML level and injury free. The kid is still young, he's got a lot to learn on the ML level. I feel for Phil, the expectations of these fans are that he should go out every start and throw 7-8 innings of 4 hit 2 run or less ball. Give him time folks, I think you will love Phil in a few years when he does do that.Yes, he desperately needs another year of seasoning, but IMHO he needs it in Scranton. After a total of only 14 AAA starts scattered over the past three years, I would venture that he still has more to learn at the minor league level. If it takes him a few years to reach that level of excellence you mention, which I'm confident can happen, I don't want to see him get continually thrashed in every big league start. With such little AAA experience, I believe he still has many adjustments to learn by facing teams' lineups a second, third, and fourth time.

R.V.47

05-11-09, 08:08 AM

Preferably. I'd take any raw prospect with a high ceiling in the low minors for Phil.

I wouldnt mind trading him for a high ceiling position player maybe a OFer or SS, Ive said repeatedly Cashman should have traded some of the excess pitching talent in the minors for positional talent something we have pretty much none of in the minors. Id like to give Hughes a little more time but if we could fetch someone who could possibly be a cost controlled very good player for us for a long time its worth a shot.

Eschie

05-11-09, 08:09 AM

When was the last time we made a trade like that?

The Sheff trade I guess.

Hughes wouldn't fetch anything useful that is ML ready.

As part of a package for Mauer this off-season. I don't think there's an emoticon...

teknetic

05-11-09, 08:10 AM

Not at all.

I think it was a start last year where Garza threw over 100 pitches against us, 85-90 of them were all fastballs (or somewhere around that obscene figure)

Eschie

05-11-09, 08:10 AM

I wouldnt mind trading him for a high ceiling position player maybe a OFer or SS, Ive said repeatedly Cashman should have traded some of the excess pitching talent in the minors for positional talent something we have pretty much none of in the minors. Id like to give Hughes a little more time but if we could fetch someone who could possibly be a cost controlled very good player for us for a long time its worth a shot.

I like the thought, I just don't think you knock on someone's door and expect a fair exchange with trades like these.

Eschie

05-11-09, 08:12 AM

I think it was a start last year where Garza threw over 100 pitches against us, 85-90 of them were all fastballs (or somewhere around that obscene figure)

Wrong part.

JohnnyEllis

05-11-09, 08:12 AM

R.V.47

05-11-09, 08:13 AM

The Sheff trade I guess.

As part of a package for Mauer this off-season. I don't think there's an emoticon...

The last time the yanks did a minor leaguer for minor leaguer trade was Clippard for Albaladejo and its worked out decently for us. Clippard had no future on this team.

These trades can pay huge dividends sometimes they wont always turn out to be Mike Lowell for Ed Yarnell.

Eschie

05-11-09, 08:13 AM

JavyVazquezIsSick

05-11-09, 08:13 AM

I like the thought, I just don't think you knock on someone's door and expect a fair exchange with trades like these.

There is absolutely no rush to trade Phil. Like I said, send him back down, let him dominate. I'm sure there are quite a few teams interested in him still.

Eschie

05-11-09, 08:14 AM

The last time the yanks did a minor leaguer for minor leaguer trade was Clippard for Albaladejo and its worked out decently for us. Clippard had no future on this team.

Wasn't there something with their options that made it mutually beneficial? Hmmm... maybe not. At any rate, I don't think we'll see it with higher level guys.

teknetic

05-11-09, 08:14 AM

Wrong part.

Say wha?

Eschie

05-11-09, 08:17 AM

There is absolutely no rush to trade Phil. Like I said, send him back down, let him dominate. I'm sure there are quite a few teams interested in him still.

Yeah, we need to let someone else fall in love with him, like Pride and Prejudice.

Eschie

05-11-09, 08:18 AM

Say wha?

I wasn't arguing their %, I was disagreeing with them having similar velocities. If Phil had Garza's FB he'd throw it more.

JohnnyDamonfan

05-11-09, 08:52 AM

Oh yeah, let's trade Phil that way when he goes to a American league team he can start throwing no hitters against us. Oh, yeah thal will be fun. God, and people say I'm not patient? Trust me Hughes is the real deal . By 2010 he's gonna be a reliable number 4 starter mark my words. And the last thing we need is Hughes to be pitching no hitter's against us. I really don't understand why someone would want to trade him. He's 22 f'n years old do people really have so little patience that they can't wait one year for Hughes to show how good he really is? Why don't we just trade Melancon, Jackson, and every other prospect we have with a high ceiling while we're at it?

Eschie

05-11-09, 08:54 AM

By the time Johan's contract is up Phil will be a number 3 starter.

35Knucklecurve

05-11-09, 09:19 AM

In addition to the obvious pitching problems, I have no sense of this kid whatsoever. Does he care? When he's getting lit up, he shows all the concern of someone who's running five or ten minutes late for a drinks date. Same thing on those comparatively fewer occasions when he has it going his way. Must be a California what's-the-big-deal thing. Either way, he's very hard to read.
I made the same comment on Saturday. I was at the game and there were mostly NY fans sitting in the area where I was sitting and they were talking about the same thing - it's nearly impossible to get a true read on the guy. Of course, that doesn't mean he's not upset about his performance on Saturday or satisfied after a good start. However, there was no doubt about the way Girardi felt. When you looked at the Jumbotron after he got to the mound, you didn't need to be a mind-reader to know Joe was NOT a happy camper.

I don't know what YES was showing, but I only saw two different pitches on the tracker at the stadium - fast ball at about 92-94 or change-up around 79. If that's the case, it's not going to be that difficult to figure him out, especially on days when he has location issues with either pitch.

Eschie

05-11-09, 09:21 AM

He wasn't locating the curve from what I saw.

primetime714

05-11-09, 09:30 AM

There is absolutely no rush to trade Phil. Like I said, send him back down, let him dominate. I'm sure there are quite a few teams interested in him still.

He really hasn't lost much value because of one start where he didn't have command of his pitches. He may not have the value he once had as the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, but plenty of teams would give up good young talent for him especially since his stuff has shown marked improvement over last year.

teknetic

05-11-09, 09:43 AM

I wasn't arguing their %, I was disagreeing with them having similar velocities. If Phil had Garza's FB he'd throw it more.

I know that, just brought it up because it was pretty hilarious. He mowed us down by throwing, nothing but fastballs all game long.

Rocketbooster

05-11-09, 09:45 AM

The problem with Phil seems to be that he's too fragile. It's too easy for him to lose his mechanics and completely fall apart. Could his freak injuries and slow recovery be tied to faulty mechanics?

Phil progress could seen as a referendum on the Yanks ability to develop talent

I would say your last comment has more than a ring of truth. I have not been a fan at all of the way the Yankees have handled Phil - rushing him twice, changing his mechanics, etc..... If he doesn't blossom here, I think he will with another organization - I really think he's been the Yankees' guinea pig. It actually makes me very nervous about the other kids we have in the pipeline.

Rocketbooster

05-11-09, 09:47 AM

I wouldnt mind trading him for a high ceiling position player maybe a OFer or SS, Ive said repeatedly Cashman should have traded some of the excess pitching talent in the minors for positional talent something we have pretty much none of in the minors. Id like to give Hughes a little more time but if we could fetch someone who could possibly be a cost controlled very good player for us for a long time its worth a shot.

I think I'd much rather have the very good cost-controlled pitcher for a long time. Whatever fans may think, the Yankees do not think Phil is excess talent. He's going to be a part of this teams future.....

Rocketbooster

05-11-09, 09:54 AM

NelsonMuntz

05-11-09, 10:11 AM

primetime714

05-11-09, 10:35 AM

I don't get how Phil has to lose his temper on the mound to show that he cares. Why are people questioning this all of a sudden? Phil's a laid back guy - he's not going to show his emotions on the mound. He's never given any indication at all that he doesn't care - he works hard, takes responsibility for his poor performances and overall is a very mature kid. This was the read on him since he was drafted.

Get on him for his bad performances, but implying that Phil may not care is unfair

I don't worry about whether or not he cares and actually I think its silly to suggest he doesn't. From a mentality standpoint the one thing that concerns me is his ability to deal with adversity. He seems to lack confidence and really lets thing snowball when he hits a bump in the road. With time he should learn to make these adjustments, but it is the most discouraging element of his game IMO.

apalradio

05-11-09, 10:46 AM

Yankee Tripper

05-11-09, 11:06 AM

There is absolutely no rush to trade Phil. Like I said, send him back down, let him dominate. I'm sure there are quite a few teams interested in him still.The Yankees for one.

Yankee Tripper

05-11-09, 11:08 AM

The implication that Phil doesn't care goes against all of the scouting hype that projected him to be a Clemens-like bulldog. This kid is so not major league ready, now it's not only his stuff that's coming under fire it's his temperment and make up. He really needs to go back to AAA and have a great season there before this early and apparently premature MLB experience completely wrecks his promising career.Before Wang got "hurt" that was the plan. He looked so good in Detorit and so bad against Boston & Baltimore. He's still got a world of potential in my opinion and I for one am not giving up on him. Though I admit that Baltimore start was just brutal.

smckdwn989

05-11-09, 11:09 AM

are we giving up on hughes again? i assume so, bc now we're going to trade him for a low level prospect with a high ceiling... lol, the reactionary posts are too funny sometimes.

JfromJersey

05-11-09, 11:11 AM

He's still so young. It would be insane to give up on him. It's not like he's stunk every game he started in the majors either. He's had games where he looked like a top of the rotation guy, but unfortunately he can't sustain it. Part of the problem is mechanical but the major issue seems to be mental. He doesn't have the confidence to grind his way through when bad things happen, like getting squeezed by umps. He could use Joba's bulldog mentality right now, but with some pitchers it just takes more time to get that kind of confidence. Maybe not this year but in a year or two I think it will all click with Phil and I just hope he's still a Yankee when that happens.

Rocketbooster

05-11-09, 11:16 AM

I don't worry about whether or not he cares and actually I think its silly to suggest he doesn't. From a mentality standpoint the one thing that concerns me is his ability to deal with adversity. He seems to lack confidence and really lets thing snowball when he hits a bump in the road. With time he should learn to make these adjustments, but it is the most discouraging element of his game IMO.

True...and yet I don't believe he is fragile (which is a terrible thing to say about any athlete) I'm not sure if this is because Phil is used to dominating from the time he was a kid and he's just frustrated.....I'm confident that he will develop into a top notch starter. Will it be with this team? I don't know - I don't have much confidence in the Yankees ability to develop young pitchers.

Yankee Tripper

05-11-09, 11:33 AM

are we giving up on hughes again? i assume so, bc now we're going to trade him for a low level prospect with a high ceiling... lol, the reactionary posts are too funny sometimes.I think that is just JVIS who hasn't liked Hughes for quite some time on this board.

Lets Win Again

05-11-09, 11:55 AM

just-blaze

05-11-09, 12:23 PM

Wrong part.

Current Fangraphs.com stats....

Hughes 92.4
Garza 92.3

Data probably doesn't include last night's game.

Edit: Hughes throwing his fastball 49% of the time is just silly, Im not even advocating 71% like Garza, but he needs to throw it more.

teknetic

05-11-09, 12:25 PM

I think that is just JVIS who hasn't liked Hughes for quite some time on this board.

AAAA.

Kinda cool how we didn't we hear any of it after that Detroit start. Joba needs to teach him that changeup.

JohnnyDamonfan

05-11-09, 02:00 PM

Imagine a rotation of
Johan
CC
Burnett
Petitte
Joba

We could of had that if we traded Hughes and Wang..or what was it?
Melky, Hughes, and another prospect for Santana?
If so, we would have Wang added to that and put Joba in the pen as the next closer.
:)

But enough of the fantasies of what we "could of" had..

That looks good on paper. But really think about this. This sounds more like what the Yankees would have done years ago. Hughes is the future for the Yankees and Johan is short term. Our whole rotation doesn't have to have aces and all stars in it.

eaganmafia

05-11-09, 03:19 PM

That looks good on paper. But really think about this. This sounds more like what the Yankees would have done years ago. Hughes is the future for the Yankees and Johan is short term. Our whole rotation doesn't have to have aces and all stars in it.

Short term?!?! He's 30 years old, Johan has years and years ahead of him.

Hellsing

05-11-09, 03:21 PM

I think that is just JVIS who hasn't liked Hughes for quite some time on this board.

He's been right on everything else, so we should probably take his word as gospel. :-whistle-

His last start was atrocious.

He needs to be more aggressive. Throw the FB more. Throw the change more.

He's 22 and has showed flashes of brilliance, but he has also had some very poor starts.

Joba seems to settle down after he gives up some runs and keeps the game under control. A great sign. Phil doesn't do that nearly as well.

Hellsing

05-11-09, 03:22 PM

My question is....

Where is the pinpoint control we heard tell of while he was storming through the minors?

grizy

05-11-09, 03:40 PM

My question is....

Where is the pinpoint control we saw while he was pitching his first start this season?

Fixed your post for you.

My answer is

Hughes with Eiland in '09:

Day 0: 6.0IP, 2BB, 2H, 0ER
Day 5: 4.0IP, 4BB, 7H, 3ER
Day 10: 1.2IP, 2BB, 8H, 8ER

Just saying.

JohnnyDamonfan

05-11-09, 03:44 PM

Short term?!?! He's 30 years old, Johan has years and years ahead of him.

Ummmmmmmm........ I really don't know if this is sarcasm or not . Maybe my defintion for short term is way off. But, Long term in my opinion is the future for the Yankees. So Joba would be long term. Hughes would be long term.I mean Santana could help us for the next 5 maybe six years. But for me long term is our future someone could be here for the 10 + years. Maybe my vision of long term is somewhat odd. I just consider a Long term guy someone who could really be the future of the Yankees.Santana is only 30 years old but he could never be the future for the Yankees.

Rastven

05-11-09, 03:44 PM

Fixed your post for you.

My answer is

Hughes with Eiland in '09:

Day 0: 6.0IP, 2BB, 2H, 0ER
Day 5: 4.0IP, 4BB, 7H, 3ER
Day 10: 1.2IP, 2BB, 8H, 8ER

Just saying.
How do you explain Hughes and Eiland in the minors then?
Hughes at Trenton with Eiland was dominant

Hellsing

05-11-09, 03:46 PM

Fixed your post for you.

My answer is

Hughes with Eiland in '09:

Day 0: 6.0IP, 2BB, 2H, 0ER
Day 5: 4.0IP, 4BB, 7H, 3ER
Day 10: 1.2IP, 2BB, 8H, 8ER

Just saying.

You REALLY think Eiland is to blame for his performance? He *WAS* spot on in Detroit.

Was that an abberation or the norm? That's what we need to find out.

Let me clarify something....I am NOT a fan of Eiland, but is he REALLY the one to blame?

I would have moved heaven and earth to sign La Russa when he was available NOT because I think he's the greatest manager in the world, but because Dave Duncan is an absolute genius with pitchers and they are tied at the hip.

How about Mazzone?

tdel23

05-11-09, 03:50 PM

Metroidman

05-11-09, 03:51 PM

La Russa doesn't have a contract for next season....

Hey if you guys badly want La Russa and Duncan, hope for a crap season

grizy

05-11-09, 03:51 PM

How do you explain Hughes and Eiland in the minors then?
Hughes at Trenton with Eiland was dominant

For some reason I don't think dominating AA ball with Hughes' stuff is much of an accomplishment, especially after completely crushing A and high A.

ToneinTO

05-11-09, 03:54 PM

Hughes has shown great potential but he may not fulfill it for another three or four years at least, if at all. By that time, the core of the team will be past their prime.

I am hoping Hughes can prove me wrong and turn it on this year or next, but at this point, it looks like he'll be an average pitcher at best. As a previous poster stated, maybe he is better suited for long relief.

tdel23

05-11-09, 03:56 PM

Hey if you guys badly want La Russa and Duncan, hope for a crap season

I was just saying he is free agent next year, last season was enough of the crappy season for me.

ToneinTO

05-11-09, 03:57 PM

I would have moved heaven and earth to sign La Russa when he was available NOT because I think he's the greatest manager in the world, but because Dave Duncan is an absolute genius with pitchers and they are tied at the hip.

I feel the same way-still pissed at Cashman for not signing La Russa and bringing Duncan to the Bronx.

grizy

05-11-09, 04:00 PM

You REALLY think Eiland is to blame for his performance? He *WAS* spot on in Detroit.

Was that an abberation or the norm? That's what we need to find out.

Let me clarify something....I am NOT a fan of Eiland, but is he REALLY the one to blame?

I would have moved heaven and earth to sign La Russa when he was available NOT because I think he's the greatest manager in the world, but because Dave Duncan is an absolute genius with pitchers and they are tied at the hip.

How about Mazzone?

I am obviously not totally certain, but the stats are very very compelling.

Hughes flew in, told Eiland "hi," pitched a gem for 6.0IP2h on 99 pitches.

Hughes reports to Eiland for a side session or two, pitches 4IP 4ER on 93 pitches.

Hughes reports to Eiland to see the problem... comes back to pitch 1.2IP 8ER on 53 pitches.

This is NOT an aberration and I posted data in Eiland's thread to back up the assertion. Whatever Eiland's doing, it's not helping and very likely hurting.

Maybe he knows what he's doing but his demeanor does not inspire confidence or he simply doesn't know what the right buttons to push are.

tdel23

05-11-09, 04:00 PM

Fixed your post for you.

My answer is

Hughes with Eiland in '09:

Day 0: 6.0IP, 2BB, 2H, 0ER
Day 5: 4.0IP, 4BB, 7H, 3ER
Day 10: 1.2IP, 2BB, 8H, 8ER

Just saying.

first Stottlemyre was the problem with the pitchers, then Guidry now Eiland...I can't wait until we can blame the next pitching coach for the problems.

grizy

05-11-09, 04:02 PM

first Stottlemyre was the problem with the pitchers, then Guidry now Eiland...I can't wait until we can blame the next pitching coach for the problems.

The problem with Eiland is, so far, he's even worse than Guidry.

Metroidman

05-11-09, 04:05 PM

The problem with Eiland is, so far, he's even worse than Guidry.

2008 = 15th in Baseball in ERA
2007 = 17th in Baseball in ERA
2006 = 12th in Baseball in ERA
2005 - 22nd in Baseball in ERA

Seems like the only abberation is the 2005 season. How has he been worse?

CommerceComet

05-11-09, 04:09 PM

We spent $80 million on Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa. That's well over halfway to insanely stupid.With perfect hindsight, I'd say that's well over halfway PAST insanely stupid. Unfortunately for Cashman and all other GMs, they can't retroactively make decisions.

grizy

05-11-09, 04:13 PM

2008 = 15th in Baseball in ERA
2007 = 17th in Baseball in ERA
2006 = 12th in Baseball in ERA
2005 - 22nd in Baseball in ERA

Seems like the only abberation is the 2005 season. How has he been worse?

Old post in Eiland's

http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=5914490&postcount=121

Metroidman

05-11-09, 04:16 PM

Old post in Eiland's

http://forums.nyyfans.com/showpost.php?p=5914490&postcount=121

Small sample size

Last year our pen overperormed out of their minds. Veras/Edwar performed way too good. Coke this year is performing far too good. The overall ERA of the staff pains a very different picture

grizy

05-11-09, 04:22 PM

Small sample size

Last year our pen overperormed out of their minds. Veras/Edwar performed way too good. Coke this year is performing far too good. The overall ERA of the staff pains a very different picture

That's data of 2008+2009 under Eiland vs. 2007 under Guidry for everyone under 30 who pitched in 2007 and returned for 2008.

Combined that's 494IP for under Guidry and 642 for under Eiland. I don't really think that's small sample size anymore.

Maybe Eiland works better with older pitchers. I can sit pretty well with that... but I remember hearing Eiland was specifically brought up to bring the trio of Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy along.

Metroidman

05-11-09, 04:31 PM

And you dont see any bias in your list at all? I'll go down the list 1 by 1

Bruney improved in every sense of the world. BB/9 went way down
Wang = Injured under Eiland
Rasner = Non prospect and he also went from 24 innings to 113 under Eiland and got exposed as a not good pitcher
Edwar = Improved
Ian Kennedy = 19 innings for a cup of tea in September to #5 starter which caused him to be exposed as not ready
Joba Chamberlain = Reliver to Starter. Ofcourse his stats would dip
Jose Veras = 9 innings in 07 to 70 innings in 08 but also improved a little. Then again very small sample size
Kei Igawa = LOL
Hughes = Again first time in the majors compiled with injury in 08 and having a terrible season overall.
Ohlendorf = 6 innings to 40 innings.

How can you not see that? The whole list is basically flawed because you dont even consider the innings pitched in 08 to 09.

Rastven

05-11-09, 04:45 PM

For some reason I don't think dominating AA ball with Hughes' stuff is much of an accomplishment, especially after completely crushing A and high A.
But you are attempting to create a causal relationship leading to a conclusion that Eiland is ruining Hughes.

If Eiland had been ruining Hughes he would have bottomed out in AA after previous success in Low and High A because Eiland would be unable to keep him on track.

Stuff starts to get exposed at AA and above because the hitters can hit the breaking ball and generally have a better eye.

You have created a scapegoat but I'm not buying it.

grizy

05-11-09, 04:46 PM

The averages are weighted according to IP, not an average of all the pitchers. Kei Igawa's results are basically in there for completeness but his 4IP in 2008 made very little impact on the overall data.

What the causal relationship is, I don't know. Eiland might not have been the cause. It could have been the food in the cafeteria or they just like Girardi less than Torre. But bottom line is our young pitchers, as a group, have underperformed to statistically significant levels.

And even if you take everything else out of there, bottomline is Eiland was specifically brought up for the trio of IPK, Hughes, and Joba.

So far he's batting 1 for 3, generously speaking.

Metroidman

05-11-09, 04:50 PM

The averages are weighted according to IP, not an average of all the pitchers. Kei Igawa's results are basically in there for completeness but his 4IP in 2008 made very little impact on the overall data.

You dont factor in so much in this. Hughes and Kennedy's terrible years throw that whole chart off. One got injured and the other barely pitched in 07 and then went to #5 starter in 08. You'll also notice 200+ more innings under Eiland than under Guidry

grizy

05-11-09, 04:54 PM

You dont factor in so much in this. Hughes and Kennedy's terrible years throw that whole chart off. One got injured and the other barely pitched in 07 and then went to #5 starter in 08. You'll also notice 200+ more innings under Eiland than under Guidry

117 more IP actually. Eiland's "time" factor is also longer since his data has most of April of 2009 thrown in. Sure, it doesn't account for the 117 IPs entirely, but their IP really isn't that much different.

And what you're describing is basically his failures. Whatever the reasons are, he failed... and his resume is quickly mounting with more fails than successes.

So if we ignore his most notable failures in 2008, he looks good.

That sounds like a pretty awful way to evaluate anybody in any industry.

Honestly, isn't it a pitching coach's job to identify when someone's mechanics are off, especially for a young pitcher? Hughes pitched with broken ribs and near-sightedness that went undetected... just how the hell did that happen?

goin for 27

05-11-09, 04:57 PM

With perfect hindsight, I'd say that's well over halfway PAST insanely stupid. Unfortunately for Cashman and all other GMs, they can't retroactively make decisions.

No, but they are and should be graded on their decisions. How else do you determine their effectiveness?

CommerceComet

05-11-09, 06:01 PM

No, but they are and should be graded on their decisions. How else do you determine their effectiveness?In Cashman's case, he should be evaluated on World Championships. Of course, that is a high standard but no other GM has close to Cashman's resources. I really don't care if Cashman has a Pavano or an Igawa transaction on his record provided he brings home World Series hardware. On this standard, I've soured on Cashman. I was once one of his biggest supporters but we've been waiting too long for #27. While I felt it was probably time for Torre to go (and even more so now that he has been running his mouth), I'm beginning to think that our inability to win #27 was more Cashman than Torre.

Like a good manager, a good GM is going to make a bad move now and then. So I'm not willing to rip someone over a gamble he takes (even retroactively), provided the bottom line is okay.

apalradio

05-11-09, 06:12 PM

How do you explain Hughes and Eiland in the minors then?
Hughes at Trenton with Eiland was dominantPitching at AA and pitching in the majors are two different things. Hughes is obviously a talented kid, but Eiland is thus far unable to turn him into a major league pitcher.

b_joseph

05-11-09, 06:38 PM

Pitching at AA and pitching in the majors are two different things. Hughes is obviously a talented kid, but Eiland is thus far unable to turn him into a major league pitcher.It is not Eilands fault for Hughes not being a average Major Leaguer. He cant pitch for him, its up to Hughes to pitch his way to success and all Eiland can do is advise him.

Rastven

05-11-09, 08:59 PM

Pitching at AA and pitching in the majors are two different things. Hughes is obviously a talented kid, but Eiland is thus far unable to turn him into a major league pitcher.
Yes but if Eiland is the cause of Hughes' ruinination we would have seen this starting in AA. The fact that we didn't leads me to believe Phil's failures are his own.

apalradio

05-11-09, 09:54 PM

Yes but if Eiland is the cause of Hughes' ruinination we would have seen this starting in AA. The fact that we didn't leads me to believe Phil's failures are his own.I don't disagree with that at all. I was merely responding to an earlier post which excused Eiland from any responsibility for Hughes since he was so successful at AA. While Eiland is not entirely to blame for Phil's shortcomings at the MLB level, neither should he be excused for any responsibility in his role as pitching coach. If Phil being successful at AA on Eiland's watch means that Eiland gets credit, then he should also bear some responsibility for his young protege in the big leagues.

Rastven

05-12-09, 08:09 AM

I don't disagree with that at all. I was merely responding to an earlier post which excused Eiland from any responsibility for Hughes since he was so successful at AA. While Eiland is not entirely to blame for Phil's shortcomings at the MLB level, neither should he be excused for any responsibility in his role as pitching coach. If Phil being successful at AA on Eiland's watch means that Eiland gets credit, then he should also bear some responsibility for his young protege in the big leagues.
I agree but the trend has been the blame all our pitching woes on Eiland. At the end of the day he's not the one out there executing and what he says needs to be practiced by the players.
Blame is evenly spread at this point but I think scapegoating someone is a waste of time.

35Knucklecurve

05-12-09, 10:28 AM

That's data of 2008+2009 under Eiland vs. 2007 under Guidry for everyone under 30 who pitched in 2007 and returned for 2008.

Combined that's 494IP for under Guidry and 642 for under Eiland. I don't really think that's small sample size anymore.

Maybe Eiland works better with older pitchers. I can sit pretty well with that... but I remember hearing Eiland was specifically brought up to bring the trio of Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy along.
I thought that was also the problem with Stottlemyre - he worked better with the veterans. The reviews on Eiland before he came up were the same as they were for Hughes - pretty darned good. They're both under pressure. At this point, people are expecting Hughes (and Joba) to be a solid, dependable starters. I don't know how realistic that is, especially for Huges. IMO, he needs more time in AAA, but then he'd be working with another coach. Maybe it couldn't hurt.

bronxburning

05-12-09, 01:56 PM

Hughes needs a few more starts in the majors to correct himself. Wang can use the few more starts in the minor to make sure he is ready to come back.

ajra21

05-13-09, 12:14 PM

are people really saying that eiland has messed up hughes?

http://billdunlap.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/facepalm.jpg

thaa

05-14-09, 09:46 PM

[...]

If Phil being successful at AA on Eiland's watch means that Eiland gets credit, then he should also bear some responsibility for his young protege in the big leagues.

How on earth can anyone know this, one way or the other--I mean about the degree of responsibility Eiland may (or may not) bear for Hughes's woes? Has someone in a position to know--really know--let the cat out of the bag?

In any case, if Eiland gets credit (but from whom?) for Hughes's success at AA, it doesn't necessarily follow that he must also bear "some responsibility" for Hughes's collapses in New York. Hughes may need yet to do some growing up, i.e., "maturing." Or Hughes may have reached his level of incompetence in the big leagues. It's happened to better men than Phil Hughes and will happen to others long after he's gone. However, in our disappointment with him, there's no need to scapegoat Eiland.

JeterRodriguezSheff

05-14-09, 10:10 PM

I think thee is a 98.74537 percent chance that Eiland has nothing to do with Hughe's struggles.

Rocketbooster

05-15-09, 12:15 AM

nycdoc999

05-15-09, 01:49 AM

I still think he’ll be a top flight pitcher

I don't even know if we can say this going forward.

Hughes and Kennedy have, so far, been huge disappointments. Flashes of brilliance but nothing sustained. This is not to say that they can't develop - it's just that there's nothing, including the Yankees' track record of pitcher development, saying they WILL.

Shanghai Bob

05-15-09, 01:58 AM

Strangely I feel good about Hughes tomorrow.

a. Minnesota a very middling offensive team
b. Home cooking
c. Maybe an early lead against Liriano

aeromac76

05-15-09, 07:38 AM

I should be banned from the Phil Hughes fan club for saying this, but I have zero confidence that he will pitch decently tomorrow…......too bad he’s on the mound when the Yankees are looking to get a good streak going. I still think he’ll be a top flight pitcher, but obviously he’s not ready

I am not quite as down as you seem to be, but I am falling more on that side.

The most frustrating thing is that there are always games where I go, oh boy, he's here now, man that was awesome, and then he follows it up with a bunch of games not even Sidney Ponson could be proud of on his bad days..

When he stepped on the mound in Detroit and shut that offense down in their own park, with a humming fastball, backbreaking curve and a hell of a cutter, I was like, wow.
When the Sox got him a bit, I thought, well, it happens.
But when the Orioles below him away, it was back to square one again.

We seem like we are getting there as a team. We have picked up 2 games on Toronto and Boston the last 48 hours.
2 days ago, I was thinking we could be 8.5 out and 7.5 behind the Sox if we are not careful. Instead the sun really rises today and we are just 3 behind in the loss column to both of those teams having played the most road games of anyone.
But the team has been a sequence of fits and starts. If we can get 3 of 4 from Minnesota, we start looking good.
I don't need Hughes to be Sabathia or even AJ. But go out there and pitch 6 innings, give up 3 or less, and give us a shot.
If he goes 6 or 7 and gives up 3, and we lose anyway, then it is not his fault. But we cannot come back from 8-1 down.

JavyVazquezIsSick

05-15-09, 07:51 AM

The Twins aren't a good hitting team, if we can get 5IP, 3ER, I'll be happy.

R.V.47

05-15-09, 07:55 AM

I really dont like Hughes following CC in the rotation. Im worried he will throw a stinker and just wash away the good momentum from last night. Also even though Liriano has struggled somewhat Im almost sure he will dominate for at least 6 innings tonight. Not a good equation for the yankees.

justinvarnes

05-15-09, 08:26 AM

sweet_lou_14

05-15-09, 08:30 AM

Is this the new pre-game thread?

I agree with those who said 6 IP / 3 ER will be just fine.

I disagree vehemently with that one guy who said 5 IP / 3 ER will be just fine.

Rastven

05-15-09, 09:11 AM

I want 7IP/2ER.
I will accept nothing less.

Reality, I want Phil to pitch well and get the W, 6IP and 2-4ER is more than acceptable if the offense does its job.

THEBOSS84

05-15-09, 09:12 AM

Not loving the matchup tonight.

liv2create

05-15-09, 09:12 AM

I want 7IP/2ER.
I will accept nothing less.

Reality, I want Phil to pitch well and get the W, 6IP and 2-4ER is more than acceptable if the offense does its job.

Yankees need to score big in the first and second for this to happen, otherwise he seems to tense up.

YESSIR!

05-15-09, 09:47 AM

I have a very good feeling about Hughes tonight. He's going to pitch a good game. Take it to the piggy bank.

themgmt

05-15-09, 10:06 AM

Hughes will dominate. Why is it even up for debate?

JavyVazquezIsSick

05-15-09, 10:11 AM

Statistical evidence...

liv2create

05-15-09, 10:14 AM

Hughes will dominate. Why is it even up for debate?

He's a competitor and I wish him well, but brace yourself if he doesn't live up to your expectations. He has disappointed me since he took over from Clemens in the Cleveland playoffs in 2007. Last year I was a loud supporter for him over acquiring Santanna (look where there got me) Right now his ERA is about where it was in 2008. Are his ribs broken again?

themgmt

05-15-09, 10:23 AM

Statistical evidence...

Stats schmats. I like to go with my gut. It's never lied to me before.

Hellsing

05-15-09, 10:27 AM

He's a competitor and I wish him well, but brace yourself if he doesn't live up to your expectations. He has disappointed me since he took over from Clemens in the Cleveland playoffs in 2007. Last year I was a loud supporter for him over acquiring Santanna (look where there got me) Right now his ERA is about where it was in 2008. Are his ribs broken again?

I felt the exact same way about Phil.

I still believe that he can turn it around and be an excellent starter, but something needs to change.

This could very well be the last time Yankee fans see Phil Hughes in the majors as a Yankee.

Rocketbooster

05-15-09, 10:31 AM

I am not quite as down as you seem to be, but I am falling more on that side.

The most frustrating thing is that there are always games where I go, oh boy, he's here now, man that was awesome, and then he follows it up with a bunch of games not even Sidney Ponson could be proud of on his bad days..

When he stepped on the mound in Detroit and shut that offense down in their own park, with a humming fastball, backbreaking curve and a hell of a cutter, I was like, wow.
When the Sox got him a bit, I thought, well, it happens.
But when the Orioles below him away, it was back to square one again.

We seem like we are getting there as a team. We have picked up 2 games on Toronto and Boston the last 48 hours.
2 days ago, I was thinking we could be 8.5 out and 7.5 behind the Sox if we are not careful. Instead the sun really rises today and we are just 3 behind in the loss column to both of those teams having played the most road games of anyone.
But the team has been a sequence of fits and starts. If we can get 3 of 4 from Minnesota, we start looking good.
I don't need Hughes to be Sabathia or even AJ. But go out there and pitch 6 innings, give up 3 or less, and give us a shot.
If he goes 6 or 7 and gives up 3, and we lose anyway, then it is not his fault. But we cannot come back from 8-1 down.

I'm not down on Phil - just for tonight's game. I still think he's going to be an excellent pitcher - whether with us or with someone else. It's not his fault that he's not ready and was rushed up again.........for whatever reason. I'm not giving up on him whatsoever. Of course, the fact that the Yankees probably won't hit Liriano is also a reason I'm not confident about tonight

liv2create

05-15-09, 10:35 AM

[quote=Rocketbooster]. I still think he's going to be an excellent pitcher - whether with us or with someone else. quote]

They always seem to pitch better somewhere else !!.

Look at Pavano in Cleveland

Hellsing

05-15-09, 10:38 AM

They always seem to pitch better somewhere else !!.

Look at Pavano in Cleveland

IDK if I would call a 6.45 ERA being "better". Better than NOT pitching? I guess. Though you can't give up 6.45 runs a game if you are NOT pitching.

You can see the writing on the wall.

Phil will get traded for something decent, but will blossom in another organization.

Yankee Tripper

05-15-09, 10:40 AM

I'm not down on Phil - just for tonight's game. I still think he's going to be an excellent pitcher - whether with us or with someone else. It's not his fault that he's not ready and was rushed up again.........for whatever reason. I'm not giving up on him whatsoever. Of course, the fact that the Yankees probably won't hit Liriano is also a reason I'm not confident about tonight
Having Liriano on my fantasy team, I can tell you for a fact, he's been eminently hittable this year.

As for Phil, I think the Twins are a good lineup for him to face. Limit the damage by the M&M boys and they are a lineup that can be pitched to.

b_joseph

05-15-09, 10:50 AM

Big start today. We'll get a nice insight to his toughness tonight because he must know that Wang is close to returning.

6 innings, 3 runs. Come on Phil, be average.

knickfan23

05-15-09, 10:51 AM

I guess this all seems pretty normal for a good pitcher (maybe not a HOF type like Pedro, etc).

Real good stuff, dominates minors at a young age, comes to the big leagues and is wildly inconsistent (dominates one game or a stretch of innings, then loses it) once they have to face real ML hitters and the whole ML experience.

Some figure it out, some don't, but IMO it's still too early to know. He's thrown 118 IP up here spread out over 3 seasons. It's clear his control has been a big issue (particularly when compared to the minors) and his stuff isn't so god that he can get by with so-so location. Some pitchers absolutely need their control to be dead on to succeed and Phil is one of those guys.

He pitched so well from the end of last year to the DET game (a decent stretch), then got effed up by BOS and BAL. To me, there are still enough positive signs to not give up hope, BUT....

I think spending the majority of the season in AAA with some spot starts up here would be the best way to give him the best chance to grow into the pitcher we all hope he can be.

I'll lean towards the "bust" side if he hasn't conquered these issues by this time next year. I certainly would consider trades for him at this point, however. But it would have to be for something the team immediately needs, and preferrably YOUNG talent.

Justin, I was in the "Pro Trade Hughes for Santana" camp back in 2007, but I am going to take the gamble that say that we do not give up on the kid and hopefully he can become what Jon Lester became for Boston.

I looked at Lester's numbers before his breakout '08 season and they looked like this:

144 1/3 IP - 1.56 WHIP - 4.61 BB/9 - 4.67 ERA

Now, I compared them to Hughes through his early/injury plagued career:

118 1/3 - 1.48 WHIP - 3.95 BB/9 - 5.47 ERA

Could it be possible, just possible that if I were to give Hughes most of the 2009 season in the minors for seasoning purposes that he could come out next season and surprise all of us?

Hellsing

05-15-09, 11:00 AM

Could it be possible, just possible that if I were to give Hughes most of the 2009 season in the minors for seasoning purposes that he could come out next season and surprise all of us?

Yes, but the Yankees are too impatient and will trade him before Phil has a chance to even hit puberty.

liv2create

05-15-09, 11:05 AM

JavyVazquezIsSick

05-15-09, 11:11 AM

Lester has real good stuff, Hughes does not.

Art Vanderlay

05-15-09, 11:18 AM

Justin, I was in the "Pro Trade Hughes for Santana" camp back in 2007, but I am going to take the gamble that say that we do not give up on the kid and hopefully he can become what Jon Lester became for Boston.

I looked at Lester's numbers before his breakout '08 season and they looked like this:

144 1/3 IP - 1.56 WHIP - 4.61 BB/9 - 4.67 ERA

Now, I compared them to Hughes through his early/injury plagued career:

118 1/3 - 1.48 WHIP - 3.95 BB/9 - 5.47 ERA

Could it be possible, just possible that if I were to give Hughes most of the 2009 season in the minors for seasoning purposes that he could come out next season and surprise all of us?

I know my fellow Yankees fans don't want to hear this, but Lester has better stuff than Hughes. The big problem with Phil right now is he doesn't have good command and a put away pitch. IMO, he would have been much better served spending this entire season at AAA working on his command and changeup.

Don Wrigley

05-15-09, 11:18 AM

Lester has real good stuff, Hughes does not.

Lester is also getting knocked around this year. Maybe the two pitchers are similar :D

JfromJersey

05-15-09, 11:29 AM

Lester has real good stuff, Hughes does not.

At one point in his short pro career, Hughes was the Yanks' top pitching prospect and one of the tops in the minors, and he didn't do it with smoke and mirrors. His stuff looked pretty damn good in his start against the Tigers. His next start he got squeezed by the umpire and reacted poorly, and his last start was a disaster where his mechanics looked bad. It's too early to make blanket statements about him.

Bob420

05-15-09, 11:30 AM

Instead of scrapping the slider for the curve, they should have forced the development of a change. If and when he goes back to AAA, they should force him to throw 15-20 changes a start. Results in the minors obviously don't matter at this point for him. Letting him dominate with his current pitches is not doing him any good.

Yankee Tripper

05-15-09, 11:31 AM

Hellsing

05-15-09, 11:37 AM

Lester has real good stuff, Hughes does not.

Their stuff is "close", except Phil "is no left-handed".

Bob420

05-15-09, 11:39 AM

Yeah, that was kind of the plan. Wang's massive level of suckage to start the season sort of side tracked that.

Not so sure. I am sure they wanted him to develop a change but they need to force him to throw it in uncomfortable situations and throw it very often. Mixing in a couple of changes doesn't do much.

YankeeStripes

05-15-09, 11:45 AM

I hope he dominates tonight so that when they send him back down it wont kill his confidence

Hellsing

05-15-09, 11:46 AM

I hope he dominates tonight so that when they send him back down it wont kill his confidence

If he dominates, they are going to let him pitch another game so Wang is 100% ready to come back.

If he doesn't, then they will probably send him down and let Aceves pitch a game before raising the Wang.

b_joseph

05-15-09, 11:48 AM

Justin, I was in the "Pro Trade Hughes for Santana" camp back in 2007, but I am going to take the gamble that say that we do not give up on the kid and hopefully he can become what Jon Lester became for Boston.

I looked at Lester's numbers before his breakout '08 season and they looked like this:

144 1/3 IP - 1.56 WHIP - 4.61 BB/9 - 4.67 ERA

Now, I compared them to Hughes through his early/injury plagued career:

118 1/3 - 1.48 WHIP - 3.95 BB/9 - 5.47 ERA

Could it be possible, just possible that if I were to give Hughes most of the 2009 season in the minors for seasoning purposes that he could come out next season and surprise all of us?The only problem with that is that he has more or less dominated in AAA when he has been healthy or more or less healthy.
So mentally, for him it would be back to square one as soon as he got promoted because he has been down that road before.

I dont think there is an exact science to this. He will either ''get it'' and become a productive major leaguer for us or he wont.
IMO, moving him up and down every month or so is more harm than good. At some point, he'll have to stay in the big leagues for the long haul and you'll have to deal with the bad games no matter how frequent they are.

justinvarnes

05-15-09, 11:51 AM

Their stuff is "close", except Phil "is no left-handed".

You don't know that for sure. Lester may know something you don't know.

kongull

05-15-09, 11:52 AM

Man, i hate when JVIS talks like this.

thaa

05-15-09, 11:55 AM

At one point in his short pro career, Hughes was the Yanks' top pitching prospect and one of the tops in the minors, and he didn't do it with smoke and mirrors. His stuff looked pretty damn good in his start against the Tigers. His next start he got squeezed by the umpire and reacted poorly, and his last start was a disaster where his mechanics looked bad. It's too early to make blanket statements about him.

Yes, it's true he didn't get that rep. using smoke and mirrors in the minors. But so what? All it proves is that he's one hell of a good minor league pitcher. Personally, I didn't think his stuff looked THAT good against Detroit, although it was certainly effective. However, let it have been really good. Again, so what? All it proves is that now and then he gets off a good M.L. game. Most of the time, though, his performances have been pretty bad. It's not "too early" to make that blanket statement.

The Yankees are expected to be--it comes with the territory--annual pennant contenders. This year, the bottom of the pitching staff fell out with Wang, and then the bullpen went South. So, there's really not much place for a recurrently poorly-performing Hughes in that rotation.

Or for another year of "development" and then, again, disappointment.

If they can get someone good for him, they should do so sooner rather than later. Impatience with slow learners is the price of doing Yankee business (annual contender).

Bob420

05-15-09, 11:57 AM

Yes, it's true he didn't get that rep. using smoke and mirrors in the minors. But so what? All it proves is that he's one hell of a good minor league pitcher. Personally, I didn't think his stuff looked THAT good against Detroit, although it was certainly effective. However, let it have been really good. Again, so what? All it proves is that now and then he gets off a good M.L. game. Most of the time, though, his performances have been pretty bad. It's not "too early" to make that blanket statement.

The Yankees are expected to be--it comes with the territory--annual pennant contenders. This year, the bottom of the pitching staff fell out with Wang, and then the bullpen went South. So, there's really not much place for a recurrently poorly-performing Hughes in that rotation.

Or for another year of "development" and then, again, disappointment.

If they can get someone good for him, they should do so sooner rather than later. Impatience with slow learners is the price of doing Yankee business (annual contender).

They will never develop pitching if this is the case.

Yankee Tripper

05-15-09, 12:02 PM

Not so sure. I am sure they wanted him to develop a change but they need to force him to throw it in uncomfortable situations and throw it very often. Mixing in a couple of changes doesn't do much.You could be right. But I think the plan was for him to pitch several months at AAA before coming to the big club to spell Joba some, not several starts to take over for the supposed #2 starter.

I just hope he has good FB command tonight and is able to throw the curve for stikes or it could get ugly. When he's able to spot the FB he has shown he can be quite good. When he can't locate it he get's hit and hit hard.

justinvarnes

05-15-09, 12:05 PM

Originally Posted by knickfan23
Could it be possible, just possible that if I were to give Hughes most of the 2009 season in the minors for seasoning purposes that he could come out next season and surprise all of us?

How many seaons does he need to be fully seasoned?

Knickfan23, I guess my thinking is: Why trade him now when he's clearly not out of the window where most pitchers figure it out AND the Yankees have 5 starters this year and will lose Pettitte next year?

Not arguing/disagreeing with you - we're in agreement. Just stating my case that I think he should get this year to get that chance. I could post a number of excellent pitchers who didn't have it together until 23-24-25. I think we as fans are just letdown by the fact that he didn't come in here at 21 and start tearing through the league. I'm certainly dissapointed by it. But that doesn't prevent me from looking at history and seeing that his minor and mjaor league track record is still well within the normal window for pitchers that become very good.

That being said, if the Yankees were offered a player that could fill a big need for many years, would I be OK with them trading Hughes? Absolutely! But it would need to be for someone who fits all the right criteria: young, well above average and plays a position that is a weakness on the current and/or near future team. (C, SS, CF, RF/LF)

And liv2create: he's thrown 188 innings over 2+ seasons, so he has yet to pitch a full season's worth of innings, much less pitch them enough in a row to develop consistency at the ML level. I don't thnk it's unreasonable to assume he is not "seasoned" yet, factoring in his age, his IP and his scattered appearances.

Yankee Tripper

05-15-09, 12:13 PM

It's not "too early" to make that blanket statement.

While Phil may flame out like a number of past top pitching prospect have that is true, I must strongly disagree this statement.

Here are 3 pitchers lines

Through age 22 - 2 seasons 9-21, 4.76 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Though age 21 - rookie year 2-7, 5.48 ERA, 1.672 WHIP
Though age 21 - 2 seasons 8-18, 5.59 ERA, 1.660 WHIP

Care to guess their names?

roblyo33

05-15-09, 12:34 PM

While Phil may flame out like a number of past top pitching prospect have that is true, I must strongly disagree this statement.

Here are 3 pitchers lines

Through age 22 - 2 seasons 9-21, 4.76 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Though age 21 - rookie year 2-7, 5.48 ERA, 1.672 WHIP
Though age 21 - 2 seasons 8-18, 5.59 ERA, 1.660 WHIP

Care to guess their names?

I think Greg Maddux is one. Maybe Justin Verlander one of the others???

Yankee Tripper

05-15-09, 12:37 PM

I think Greg Maddux is one. Maybe Justin Verlander one of the others???Maddux was the 3rd. The first is Tom Glavine, the second John Smoltz.

very few pitchers will ever be as suscessful as any of those 3 but I think it highlights the point that you can't really make a blanket statement about a pitching prospect based on fewer than 200 MLB IP.

knickfan23

05-15-09, 12:49 PM

Knickfan23, I guess my thinking is: Why trade him now when he's clearly not out of the window where most pitchers figure it out AND the Yankees have 5 starters this year and will lose Pettitte next year?

Not arguing/disagreeing with you - we're in agreement. Just stating my case that I think he should get this year to get that chance. I could post a number of excellent pitchers who didn't have it together until 23-24-25. I think we as fans are just letdown by the fact that he didn't come in here at 21 and start tearing through the league. I'm certainly dissapointed by it. But that doesn't prevent me from looking at history and seeing that his minor and mjaor league track record is still well within the normal window for pitchers that become very good.

That being said, if the Yankees were offered a player that could fill a big need for many years, would I be OK with them trading Hughes? Absolutely! But it would need to be for someone who fits all the right criteria: young, well above average and plays a position that is a weakness on the current and/or near future team. (C, SS, CF, RF/LF)

And liv2create: he's thrown 188 innings over 2+ seasons, so he has yet to pitch a full season's worth of innings, much less pitch them enough in a row to develop consistency at the ML level. I don't thnk it's unreasonable to assume he is not "seasoned" yet, factoring in his age, his IP and his scattered appearances.

Yea, that's what I'm thinking.

If you trade him now at present, we are trading low. I mean, the kid is what, 23? Of course, you dont want to trap yourself into what Baltimore did with Daniel Cabrera. A great talent that could never be harnessed and the team refuse to make deals involving him under the hope that he would "find it" with them and not another team.

The problem is actually a Yankee organizational problem in which they have forced him into a situation where he is in essence forced to pitch well or else. It may be that he develops a little later. Sure, I would like him to be Tim Lincecum, but it may not happen as fast.

I was just thinking of young position players you could trade him for. The problem is that Hamilton-Volquez and Garza-Young deal were spots were team were trading guys that had high ceilings mixed in guys who had some "issues".

justinvarnes

05-15-09, 01:06 PM

Yea, that's what I'm thinking.

If you trade him now at present, we are trading low. I mean, the kid is what, 23? Of course, you dont want to trap yourself into what Baltimore did with Daniel Cabrera. A great talent that could never be harnessed and the team refuse to make deals involving him under the hope that he would "find it" with them and not another team.

The problem is actually a Yankee organizational problem in which they have forced him into a situation where he is in essence forced to pitch well or else. It may be that he develops a little later. Sure, I would like him to be Tim Lincecum, but it may not happen as fast.

I was just thinking of young position players you could trade him for. The problem is that Hamilton-Volquez and Garza-Young deal were spots were team were trading guys that had high ceilings mixed in guys who had some "issues".

Yeah, he's a month shy of 23.

Daniel Cabrera is an interesting comparison. He was 23 as a rookie. The O's traded him at 27 after 4 years of refusing to deal him. If Phil is 27 (4 years from now - so 2013) and is still unable to "put it together" then I think we both agree that they missed their boat to trade him.

But until a great trade comes along that would involve him, I'm fine with him spending 2009 on the Scranton - Bronx shuttle controlling his IP and getting experience. He is just reaching that window where his clock is ticking - at least in my mind and I believe history bears me out on this. It's a good risk to take at this point.

4degrees

05-15-09, 01:18 PM

IP by Hughes

2006 149.7

2007 111.7 (majors and minors)

2008 70.3 (majors and minors)

Considering it's been 2 years since he's logged in the neighborhood of 150IP, I think just leaving him in one place and let him work on just playing would be sound. The major level is pretty unforgiving.

themgmt

05-15-09, 01:21 PM

Lester has real good stuff, Hughes does not.

And Lester had a magical 2008. 2006/2007/2009.. not so much. He's better than he's pitching right now though, I'm guessing he threw way too much last year.

JeterRodriguezSheff

05-15-09, 01:29 PM

Lester has real good stuff, Hughes does not.

Thats funny because I remember people being disappointed with Lester's stuff, especially his velocity until last season. In fact i remember people calling him a Casey Fossum/Zito clone.

Funny how all that changes after a break out season.

JavyVazquezIsSick

05-15-09, 01:30 PM

Pretty big velocity increase last season, must of had to do with getting over that whole cancer thing. BTW, stuff isn't just velocity, Lester has much better breaking stuff.

JeterRodriguezSheff

05-15-09, 01:32 PM

They will never develop pitching if this is the case.

I dont know, Joba seems to be doing well for himself.

JeterRodriguezSheff

05-15-09, 01:33 PM

Pretty big velocity increase last season, must of had to do with getting over that whole cancer thing. BTW, stuff isn't just velocity, Lester has much better breaking stuff.

I doubt the cancer thing was effecting him for that long. And his breaking stuff was compared to Zito's little looping curve before last season.

THEBOSS84

05-15-09, 01:47 PM

But now his slider and cutter are very effective.

JeterRodriguezSheff

05-15-09, 01:51 PM

But now his slider and cutter are very effective.

And that is my point. Give Hughes a chance to develop his cutter which he hasnt been throwing for long, give him a chance to work on his fastball command, and give him a chance to throw the sharp knee buckling curve he throws consistently where he wants. He should scrap the loopy one imo, and develop his change.

The foundation for success is there, it just needs to be refined.

THEBOSS84

05-15-09, 01:54 PM

And that is my point. Give Hughes a chance to develop his cutter which he hasnt been throwing for long, give him a chance to work on his fastball command, and give him a chance to throw the sharp knee buckling curve he throws consistently where he wants. He should scrap the loopy one imo, and develop his change.

The foundation for success is there, it just needs to be refined.

I agree with all this. I have patience with him. Hopefully we don't have any starters missing time when Wang gets back, and Hughes can work the rest of the season in the minors. An unlikely scenario, but a good one for his development.

hatfieldms

05-15-09, 01:57 PM

I just hope the Yankees are within ten runs heading to the bottom of the second tonight

Yankee Tripper

05-15-09, 01:59 PM

And that is my point. Give Hughes a chance to develop his cutter which he hasnt been throwing for long, give him a chance to work on his fastball command, and give him a chance to throw the sharp knee buckling curve he throws consistently where he wants. He should scrap the loopy one imo, and develop his change.

The foundation for success is there, it just needs to be refined.
While I agree with this I'd like to point out one of things that made Hughes the #1 pitching prospect in the game was his pinpoint command of the fast ball. The most disapoiniting thing to date for me in his MLB career has been his in ability to command the fast ball with any consistancy.

Yankee Tripper

05-15-09, 02:00 PM

I just hope the Yankees are within ten runs heading to the bottom of the second tonightlofty goals I see.

justinvarnes

05-15-09, 02:16 PM

While I agree with this I'd like to point out one of things that made Hughes the #1 pitching prospect in the game was his pinpoint command of the fast ball. The most disapoiniting thing to date for me in his MLB career has been his in ability to command the fast ball with any consistancy.

True. That's the old "trust your stuff" syndrome, however. Joba is going through it as well - he just has the stuff to get through it better than Hughes at the moment. Plus, as a reliever he was able to build success early and probably isn't as scared as Hughes is to just let it fly.

This is what alot of young pitchers do when they first get to the Bigs. They can no longer just play catch with the catcher like they did in the minors (when you're as good as Hughes, Kennedy, Joba, Buccholz, etc in the minors). Giving them a chance to make the adustments is what we're debating, IMO. How long is long enough to determine whether he can adjust or not?

apalradio

05-15-09, 02:25 PM

True. That's the old "trust your stuff" syndrome, however. Joba is going through it as well - he just has the stuff to get through it better than Hughes at the moment. Plus, as a reliever he was able to build success early and probably isn't as scared as Hughes is to just let it fly.

This is what alot of young pitchers do when they first get to the Bigs. They can no longer just play catch with the catcher like they did in the minors (when you're as good as Hughes, Kennedy, Joba, Buccholz, etc in the minors). Giving them a chance to make the adustments is what we're debating, IMO. How long is long enough to determine whether he can adjust or not?With a grand total of 14 career starts at AAA, Phil hasn't even learned the art of making adjustments at the minor league level. He hasn't had the experience of facing teams' lineups multiple times, where they make adjustments to him, forcing him to adjust the way he pitches to them. Until he learns that on the farm, he's going to get killed at the major league level, and I'm seriously concerned that he's going to flame out before he has a chance to reach his considerable potential.

justinvarnes

05-15-09, 02:44 PM

With a grand total of 14 career starts at AAA, Phil hasn't even learned the art of making adjustments at the minor league level. He hasn't had the experience of facing teams' lineups multiple times, where they make adjustments to him, forcing him to adjust the way he pitches to them. Until he learns that on the farm, he's going to get killed at the major league level, and I'm seriously concerned that he's going to flame out before he has a chance to reach his considerable potential.

That's why I think he's best served to spend the year at AAA before judging him on the ML level. He didn't make the jump as easily as Joba, but that doesn't mean he should be discarded.